Us housing market problems to show up in Canada?

GreaterFool.ca -predictions of a canadian RE crash

MP Garth Turner has a new book out called “Greater Fool - the troubled future of real estate“. He argues that the Canadian real estate market is due for a collapse similar to the one currently happening in the US.

He recently started a blog at greaterfool.ca that looks like yet another source of negative news about real estate markets in North America.

The following is an excerpt from his book blurb:

The timing couldn’t be better for Garth Turner’s newest book on real estate and its impact on personal finances. At a time when the US is clearly heading for recession, stock markets roil, a global credit crunch overwhelms banks and a climate crisis lurks, can the Canadian real estate market withstand the threat? Do we really think we’re immune?

More than 400,000 US families lost their homes last year and more than a million more are threatened. House prices have collapsed as much as 30% in some markets, amid predictions of another 25% slide. New home sales are down over 40%. There are 20,000 new, empty houses for sale in Phoenix, streets of foreclosures in California and desperation in Florida. What happened? Will it hit here?

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67 Responses to “GreaterFool.ca -predictions of a canadian RE crash”

1
Burden of Proof Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I am very happy about Garth, his book and his blog. Here is is summary of where we are now in the Canadian RE Bubble:

Where are we now?

• In January, sales of pre-owned homes in Canada fell 6%, or an annualized rate of more than 70%, says the Canadian Real Estate Association.
• The number of people saying they are very likely to buy a new home within the next two years has hit the lowest point in 15 years, says the Royal Bank.
• Home resales in Toronto last month crashed by 11%, says the Toronto Real Estate Board.
• The number of people trying to unload their houses has suddenly mushroomed. Listings soared to a new record in January across Canada, up 9% in a single month, says CREA.
• Meanwhile, three million families in the US now owe more on the homes than they have equity. House prices continue to collapse, and most experts think this will all go on for at least two more years.
2
Dosh Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Great, just what we need, another blowhard crying wolf about the real estate market.
3
DaMann Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
As opposed to the blowhards ( main stream media) pumping it up to oblivion?
4
Tony Danza Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Dosh get off the internets and go sell some more condos you greasy used house salesman.
5
Drachen Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
I dunno, the guy couldn’t predict that the Conservatives would be a crappy party to be in, even with preppy overachiever written all over the party leader’s face.

On the other hand, anyone who disagrees with Dosh must be at least moderately intelligent.

So Dosh, can you inform us when you’re out of business and have to collect welfare? I really want a picture of THAT!
6
visio Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
What happened? Will it hit here?

No. We are different here. We have rain, mountains, some debt games in 2010, + no major company headquarters established here.
7
Carioca Canuck Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Well…..

I’d say Garth is probably correct.

In Calgary for example, condo sales are off 40% versus last year for 3 straight months in a row……and prices are flat……SFH sales are off 30% and prices are flat. This month it will be probably 50%.

Prices overall have dropped 10% in the last 6 months.

In both cases listings are waaaaaay up, something like 40%…..setting a never before recorded all time high record, and it is only March.

In addition to that, over 15,000 new homes./condos are being built as we speak, most on spec.

We are going to look like Cleveland in 18-24 more months if this keeps up. The buyers are disappearing out here…….
8
moldcity Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
What happened is painfully obvious - speculators thought they had discovered the secret to huge gains without any risk, they bid up prices and borrowed demand from the future and now the bill is due. When the bill comes due here I sure hope the inevitable government bail-out is thimble sized. That’s more capacity than I’ll ever need to hold the tears I shed for the speculators losses.
9
Disbelief Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Good call moldcity… Vancouver is very heartless when it comes to homeless regardless of how they became that way I don’t think it will be any different. Cash is king!!! It always was and always will be. Heloc is the only way to touch false equity. Beware it can and will happen here too
10
MATHAMATICAL Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
True, Vancouver has changed over the past 4 years. Especially today, very heartless indeed. Don’t have the money to buy a house or a condo? Too bad! You should have bought back in 2002-2003. Don’t blame me for making good choices with my money. Love hearing that! Makes me so happy people care.

Think I care if a housing crash hits here like in the US. Too bad! Don’t blame me for making good choices with my money.
11
krrish2 Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
What a *****”SOLAR ECLIPSE”***** and that is one and the only Vancouver Real Estate, while some markets in the world have had shaken by powerful stroke of ’subpeemess’Vancouver r.e.got a SUPERSTAR,”A HERO EMERGES” as single largest winner of all time high without shreding a single penny from it’s HUGS the eclipse turn around like “A DIAMOND RING”wow just vancouver from decades in a row- WOW*****

Just Another Example prices were and prices are *STEAL*,we are still at rock bottom pricesOfficial*Hpi* http://www.realtylink.org/hpi/rebgvhpis … YPE=buyers

Q-type:”no major company headquarters established here”.

A type:What company are you looking for and what headquarters? I am sure some of you are going to forget this question for future.
Office what office? headquarters what headquarters?would you like to go to live in any other country?if yes,for what purpose.if no,that would be the answer to all “quarters b.s.” man you guys like to throw excuses in the air without any legs to land on earth.
12
read on Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
MATHAMATICAL (but not “literate”, it seems, from your attempts to spell):

Yes, I should have bought in 02-03, when I was living 10,000 kms from here. Oh foolish foolish me for not having the foresight to purchase Vancouver RE whilst I was in graduate school in another country. What on earth was I thinking?
13
Vansanity Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Garth is awesme, just shows character when a politician has the cahonays to stand apart. I’ve heard him compare our 40 year zero down mortgage to the US’s subrime or more accurately to the Alt-A’s. “Assets? Nah, those are optional, here’s another $500K”.

For the bulls out there: He has been saying this for some time now and it hasn’t happened.

For the bears: He has just released the book and timing is everything when you’re making such bold predictions. Smells like peak.
14
blueskies Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Great, just what we need, another blowhard crying wolf about the real estate market.

another slap in the face from reality…

dosh i’m gonna predict that 2008 is gonna suck big time
15
Jack Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I find it interesting that people with bull or bear sentiment only read what they want to read. The biggest problem with Garth is what he believes as the best hedge - 750-1500 sq.ft condos.

Personally I think RE is based on supply vs. demand, quality and location.

If you look at the recent stats, multi-family housing starts outpaced SFH 8-1 and it is going to get bigger when newer buildings start coming up.

Biggest price decreases IMO will be condos because there will be an abundance.

Garth Turner really doesn’t know much. It seems like he wrote a book to please the Bears, hope that it does crash so he can say he was some sort of prophet.
16
blueskies Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
out of 5 people commenting on robs blog one of them was satv…
17
umdesch4 Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
I’ll believe it when I see it, as far as Vancouver is concerned. Actually, I’ll buy it when I see it. As prices in much of the GVA approach the $1000/square foot mark, I figure some kind of crash is long overdue. I’m just not seeing it any time soon though…
18
Disbelief Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Question; Where are you from originally? Invest in spell check… just a suggestion. Pass the info on to your illiterate buddy SATV also. We will all thank you in advance.
19
Anonymous Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
I don’t understand why Dosh is upset? He has his name on the front cover of a new book?
20
casual observer Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Just in case you get the idea that Garth Turner’s predictions carry any more validity than anyone else’s, here’s a quote from his 1998 book “The Defence”.

On pg. 211 of the paperback edition, Garth says this about the prospects for RE, “Bad idea. Here’s why: Traditional residential real estate is unlikely to appreciate much, if any, over the next decade or two, so kiss away the potential of getting a capital gain on the property.”

BTW, I happen to mostly agree with what he’s saying today, but his past calls on RE have been anything but correct. He was also predicting that the Canadian dollar would continue to fall below the U.S. dollar, and recommending that people convert their C$ into US$ in order to preserve their wealth.

It just goes to show that predictions are very difficult to make, especially about the future.
21
krrish2 Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Disbelief,
My comments are like a doctors prescription not for kids to read the discription.Sorry if you are offended by whatever just simply ignore me next time.”Where are you from originally?” Oye thanks i can read and understand you very clear, so if i am good in essay writing competition i will be same like you i think, shame on you dum head.
22
scullboy Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
Krrish, I have to say you are the exact epitome of a bull. It’s like we’re in musical chairs… the music has stopped, people are rushing to find seats and there you are flailing around like some kind of seizure victim insisting the music is still going.

You’ve completely lost your mind. I’d say something like “God I hope you have to sell you kid to some kind of pedophile ring” but what’s the point? You are exactly the kind of person we were talking about in another thread. You obviously have no education… at all. I’m thinking grade school at this point. You work as a laborer, which would be fine and respectable but Mommy and Daddy bought you an asset, and because it’s skyrocketed in paper value you think you’re Donald Trump.

Flail away, you wretched ‘tard. Your time is coming, and I can’t wait. When you’ve lost all the “value” in your place, come and talk to me…. we’ll see if we can’t get you a job dancing for pennies at Main and Hastings.
23
ReductiMat Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Two questions:

Can someone show me an example of a city that caters to their homeless? Or at the very least, isn’t ‘heartless’?

Secondly, is it a right to live in the city one desires?
24
krrish2 Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
Hi Sonika,

Your concern is not legitmate as we have disscuss in the past your income is affordable somewhere in Vancouver.

My dad was expired in 91 and my mum is housewife all of my brother and sisters bought a place for them self since we start working.

I am never feel like Donald Trumph but I have heard that he was only 19 year old when he has purchased his first property.

I like to read all of your comments because socially those fits right on daily life but what makes them off beat is strategy game,all decent and fools are divided in to bears and bull so it is good to present facts rather than emotion.

On your blessing regarding time you should have knock down your friends those who keept you out,I was here to assist all of our friends on right time however this is difficult to advice some one buy or not same as you feel or you can advice us what to do let’s see…
25
scullboy Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Reductimat: Hell no, it’s not a right. People from my neck of the woods always end up moving west. The cost of living back east is cheaper, but jobs are tough to find so a lot of people move away. But most Nova Scotians think that’s “the best place on earth”.

In other words, one of the big reasons people relocate is affordability.

Wether salaries are too low in a region or the cost of life is too high (which come to think of it are EXACTLY THE SAME THING), the effect it the same. When people can live better somewhere else, they move.

I wonder how many young people have been leaving Vancouver. That was always the downfall of the Maritimes… young people can’t afford a good life so they leave. As a result, the brainpower ends up elsewhere.

It doesn’t happen to a place all at once but that’s the insidious part.

Eventually, you end up with a town full of people just like our buddy Krrish here. If nothing else, that will eventually make Vancouver affordable.
26
patriotz Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Turner has made a lot of bad predictions in the past, this is indisputable.

But I think it’s pretty clear what Garth is up to. It’s like someone who gets a phone call from Anchorage telling him about the earthquake, takes a quick look at a map, and tells the people in Port Alberni to head for high ground.

With the unfolding debacle in the US and Europe, it is so obvious that RE is toast that this is Garth’s last, best chance to look like a true prophet.

But I have to give him credit for being the only elected politician in Canada to come out and say that the emperor has no clothes.

Oh and casual observer, I don’t think you can fault Turner for not predicting a bubble caused by misguided government policy and mass stupidity. Such manias can never be predicted. Only the eventual triumph of fundamentals can.
27
freako Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
I share Garths belief that housing will face a severe correction, especially in the West. But some of his arguments are flawed and/or very weak.
28
casual observer Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
“Oh and casual observer, I don’t think you can fault Turner for not predicting a bubble caused by misguided government policy and mass stupidity. Such manias can never be predicted. Only the eventual triumph of fundamentals can.”

No argument here. It’s like I said, “It just goes to show that predictions are very difficult to make, especially about the future.”

Now the gov’t (at least the US) is sacrificing the currency in an effort to forestall the inevitable. In essence, they are forcing the entire population to pay for the recklessness of some. Privatizing the gains and socializing the losses. Whatever happened to capitalism?
29
paulb Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
great post Patriotz
30
bdk Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Krissh are you agreeing that you are not from Vancouver?
Or are you agreeing that you have no education whatsoever?

Did you read the posts earlier this week?
Did you understand it or did it fly right over your head?
You’re a good sport for continuously being disproved and coming right back, but try to make an effort to understand what’s being said before automatically repeating a bunch of illogical and incomprehensible gibberish that you overheard while lurking in a display suite.
It’s possible that 99% of the people posting on here are smarter than you and you can learn something.

Keep the rambling to a minimum and answer the first two questions and you’ll prove that you can read. Right now it just looks like you string a bunch of words together without reading the links that you’re supposed to read before posting an opinion.

“Oye thanks i can read and understand you very clear, so if i am good in essay writing competition i will be same like you i think, shame on you dum head.”
31
krrish2 Says:
March 12th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
BDK,
Are you runing out of anecdotals to produce any opinion on real estate?what were you complaining about Macheal Randalbards?
Common buddy go find something then come back……
32
Damn Dan Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 6:37 am
krrish2, sound-alikes, predecessors and sound-alikes of predecessors,

I’ve followed (and sometimes appreciated) your posts for as long as you’ve been making them, since VHB days. Now it’s time you put away your keyboard.
33
blueskies Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 6:48 am
interestingly enough satv is now a regular contributor(?) on robs site…

hmmmm?
the end?
what next?
rising inventory?
34
scullboy Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 6:51 am
Damn Dan, I respectfully disagree.

Hey Krrish, as far as I’m concerned you’re the very avatar (look it up, ‘tard) of the bull market. Stripped of logic, reason or indeed sanity, you are the very face of irrational greed.

You did nothing through industry or intellect to earn your “profit” and therefore think you’re special somehow. I have no doubt you hang out here for one reason only: Deep down you know this, and you like to rile people here because it makes you feel better and smarter than those of us who have chosen to sit out this market.

You are not.

Stick around, buddy. You’ve obviously made your choices, as we have made ours. I really want to see the look on your face when the consequences become apparent.

Flail on my wayward ‘tard.
35
blueskies Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 7:41 am
….Receiver’s report on the Sophia project….

http://tinyurl.com/2r6t3k

Due to soaring real estate prices, the buyers will have to come up with an average of $84,600 more than they originally paid to keep their homes
36
Anonymous Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Krrrsh,

Hone up on Donald Trump and the number of times he was on the edge of bankruptcy.

http://tinyurl.com/yvfn98
37
bdk Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Krissh you’ve been owned, you couldn’t answer the two most basic questions.

This proves you are either a spam bot or cannot comprehend basic english.

Go back to Kazakhstan, there is no way you’ll pass the immigration test, for permanent residency.
I hear Kazakhstan is the greatest place on earth anyway and real estate prices are going up there too!
38
Anonymous Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Bdk,

I am post graduate with some other great qualifications which i don’t like to tell anyone and your next question about place is not valid to answer may be you know why is that.I would be glad if you post something regarding real estate not about your improper mathematics and foolish brain.I like to modify and cut short of my comments so no monkey can read them.Information is only being forward to those few who are already there to catch the rythem.
39
bdk Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Krissh you are not a post graduate student.
You couldn’t have gone to school past grade 5.

Where were you born?

What school did you attend?

What language was this supposed program in?

What was your LPI score?

Do you even know what the LPI is? A real Canadian who went to post secondary would know this.

You are the stupidest person on this blog and you continuously feel the need to prove it.
40
Jack Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 9:13 am
I don’t remember my LPI score….I went to post secondary and graduated with honors. I find it interesting that people are basing the bear sentiment on the English language?

I am pretty sure that many investors around the world are not 100% fluent English and have done well on investments. Investments are not based on how well you can speak the English language.

I think people on the board need to stop getting into the minute details of language and focus on what the author is trying to say.
41
andrew Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 9:23 am
I personally think you guys are being very narrow minded.
I think the market will not crash.. I don’t know who started the idea of the market crashing… I am sorry, I know some of you guys want to hold on to the money and pissed off you haven’t been able to go in the market.

You probably have to wait for the right chance… but looking at the high material and labour cost, it just can’t be cheaper to build something.

I think Vancouver is really turning into a big city too… open you eyes lo…
see the possibility…
42
bdk Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Jack/Krissh

If Krissh’s rambling qualify him as an author then what is it that he’s trying to say? he just rambles and makes incorrect rhetorical statements. He can’t answer the simple question of where he’s from and which grade of elementary school he completed.

Apparently he thinks he’s from Vancouver and has a post graduate degree when in fact he’s semi retarded and couldn’t have passed the grade 12 english Provincial.

Jack/Krissh, you did not go to post secondary and you are not smarter than anyone on this board.

Laguna Parkside, Duke on Dunbar. These are new “world class” buildings that’ve seen price reductions and been on the market for a year. Hurry up and buy before a rich immigrant does.
If you realize how difficult it is for “rich immigrants” to get their permanent residency you wouldn’t be spouting off about international investors.
The Hong Kong investors have been heading for the exits for a year. So you have a handful of persians buying pre sales right now, not nearly enough to sustain this madness.
Even those that want to move here have a hard time
43
moldcity Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 9:37 am
I agree that the language issue is irrelevant - the problem I have with Krissh is the lack of clarity of thought shown. A better command of the written language makes it easier to understand what someone is saying, but it doesn’t necessarily indicate a stronger intellect.

You probably have to wait for the right chance… but looking at the high material and labour cost, it just can’t be cheaper to build something.

The problem with this line of thought is that it leaves out a few things. The construction labor market is constrained right now which drives costs up, but like all markets this can change. The reason the labor market is constrained is that they are building a LOT of supply.

Condo towers were shooting up all over Miami and were never going to go down in price until 2005, when suddenly they ran out of buyers and discovered that they had overbuilt. Look at that market now, Banks have actually put several towers on a blacklist that they will not finance, and prices have been dropping for two years, the most dramatic being losses of up to half the original asking price.
44
Rock Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Boy, these comments are becoming ever more personal and reactionary. What happened to civil debating?

IMHO, Turner, as mentioned by Patriotz, has been very wrong in the past, but here he is only stating the obvious. I personally believe the crash (yes crash) in the condo market will mirror that of what is happening in the US, but with detached land, we’ll see a long, deflation of prices over the next 5 years, before we see a bottom. As far as the Fraser Valley is concerned, we are definitely at the peak.

But I take solace in the fact that a) we make very good money b) there are, and will be plenty of good opportunities in the stock market and we can make up the difference, and c) we’re not shackled with a 40 year mortgage from buying overpriced real estate. We do own a house in Delta that we bought in 99.
45
andrew Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 10:03 am
I really don’t think it’s going to go up like the past few years anymore. So it might be wise at this point to try other types of investments.

The fact of the material is booming so high is really because China is buying 50% of all the construction material from the world. That’s why the price is not coming down. You think China is going to stop building? I highly doubt it!!!!
46
The Pope Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Boy, these comments are becoming ever more personal and reactionary. What happened to civil debating?

I agree - Please lets try to keep the comments away from personal insults. I like to leave this site as an open forum and not cut stuff out, but the personal insults get boring to wade through and don’t advance the discussion at all. I appreciate everyones contributions to the comments on this site, angry rants and all, but lets keep them general and stay away from the personal.

Remember if you can’t say something nice..
47
The Pope Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 10:25 am
You think China is going to stop building? I highly doubt it!!!!

Of course China is not going to stop building, just as we aren’t, but lets put that into perspective. The big story with both China and India is their growth rate, not the actual size of their economy. In our excitement over the growth story lets not forget who actually buys the majority of our exports. The US economy is bigger than the next four largest economies in the world (Japan, Germany, China and the UK) combined. India has an economy about the size of Florida.

Both China and India’s rapid growth rate has been tightly tied to providing cheap goods to the west. With inflation driving up prices in the east and signs of a global slowdown do you really believe ANY of this demand is locked in?
48
andrew Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Pope

I agree with your point, however, as you say everything is tied together. It’s a global economy. However, I don’t think the demand of the rich (people who move over here from Asia) will decline. You don’t see economy going bad influencing LV’s annual sales. It’s always the weak or the poor gets influenced the first. I think people who buy real estate in Metro Vancouver don’t have to worry so much. It just won’t hit them as hard. However, the ones live in the suburb will be influence more. So as the concept for the rest of the Canada.

I know it’s a sad thing, and I don’t want it to happen that way too.
49
Jack Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 10:59 am
BDK,

Not sure what has you so rattled. I clearly stated a point that language has no merit on how investments work. Your comments tend to make me think that you are trying to sound smarter then you are and most likely still attending post-secondary. You cannot come up with any more information other then trying to down play someones grasp on the English language.

Moldcity on the other hand made a great point about Krissh and how his comments do not flow and contradict themselves.

As for being smarter than anyone on this board it doesn’t really make much difference if I am or if I am not. Nobody has successfully predicted the actual day of market increase or decrease. As you can see from the past Garth Turner does need to guess since he was wrong in the past and this could regain some credibility. However, IMO he should have come out with the prediction a couple of years ago. He is just trying to play it safe.

Let me ask a question. If we don’t crash this year and I come out and say we will crash next year does that make me some type of genius?

It’s like flipping a coin 100 times and playing heads or tails. If you flip 50 times in a row and it landed on heads what do you think the chances are it will be tails for the 51st time? Chances, fundamentally, are 50/50 however I would take the gamble and say it is going to be tails.
50
franko Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Agree with The Pope about personal comments, but man, it’s hard to suffer that nonsense from andrew abou “rich foreigners”

As patriotz pointed out so convincingly yeasterday, they’re not rich because they’re stupid, and it’s the smart money that will drive this market lower.
51
Drachen Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Jack:

“It’s like flipping a coin 100 times and playing heads or tails. If you flip 50 times in a row and it landed on heads what do you think the chances are it will be tails for the 51st time?”

Are you saying that markets are random? If not it’s a terrible analogy.

A better analogy would be the video of the 777 from Boeing a few years back, the wing stress test (I’m sure you can find a video if you look). They stressed the wings up to the safety standard, no problem but as they kept increasing the stress it got more and more likely that the wing would break until *BAM* all at once. Nobody could have predicted exactly how much force it would take but anyone with the numbers could have given you a range where it would break. Same goes for the markets and we’ve been in the “break zone” for a while now, I personally think it’s impossible for prices to climb another 20% and highly unlikely that they’ll climb 10% without a collapse. Also, unlike the wing test you can’t hold at a certain level, once it gets beyond a sustainable level it’s either up or down, there is no flat.

So, given all that, YES you can predict when the collapse will come but not with pinpoint accuracy.

I say most probably (95%) this will be the year when we go over the top, possibly (4.9%) next year, incredibly slim chance (.1%) the year after. Beyond that, it is IMO impossible for prices to keep going upwards here.
52
The Pope Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Remember Andrew that ‘Rich Foreigners’ were supposed to be driving the market in ‘81 before it suddenly dropped in half. They were also supposed to be driving the market in Miami up until a few years ago. Its one of those vague feel-good arguments that is always used to justify bubble prices when in the end it always comes down to speculation.

If you were very very wealthy why would you purchase property in Vancouver over any other market in the world? Again, I think you should put the numbers into perspective before you rely on ‘wealthy foreigners’ to support the future of our market:

China has a population of 1.3 billion people with about 300k of those being millionaires. The US has a population around 300 million with about 2.5 million being millionaires. Thats a big difference, there are as many millionaires in New York as there are in China.
53
evergreen Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Remember if you can’t say something nice..

Good move, Pope! After all, it’s just an opinion.

That link regarding the US is important, thanks. The whole financial world looks to that satellite, the DJIA as it crunches out the daily numbers. As they say, “when New York sneezes, the whole world catches a cold”. And I say, “When New York giggles, the whole world laughs heartily”.

Anyway, as a matter of interest, can somebody tell me who are buying those multi-million dollar homes everyday for weeks that I see on Paul’s Numbers?
54
andrew Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
You guys are allowed to have whatever point of view you have. The time will tell, and you guys can keep repeating the same topic day after day while the market goes it’s own way. hahahaha…..
55
Anonymous Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
“when New York sneezes, the whole world catches a cold”.

it’s been long time since new york got loose motion but haven’t feel any sign of downturn in decades to come here in Vancouver.I would like to read statement from any opponents.Anybody?
56
ex-vancouverite Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
You guys are allowed to have whatever point of view you have. The time will tell, and you guys can keep repeating the same topic day after day while the market goes it’s own way. hahahaha…..

Perhaps someone will bookmark this comment as one of the more ill-informed opinions posted on this blog. Probably not, though, there are just too many of them.

References to this type of nonsense, made in the future, won’t be a laughing matter.
57
scullboy Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Ex-van,

They’ll be a laughing matter all right… the question is more who will me laughing, and who won’t.
58
blueskies Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
when Vancouver sneezes a lot of people will be covered in wet phelmgy sticky boogers….. now that’s funny!

just had the distinct pleasure of jaywalking across Hornby Street at the same time Bob Rennie was…. of course he was going in the opposite direction….as usual
59
Michael Randallbard Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Irish banks may need life-support as property prices crash
Last Updated: 12:48am GMT 11/03/2008

The Dublin government appears to be almost powerless to prevent a severe downturn. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports

The Irish banking system faces acute strains and may require a phase of temporary nationalization as the property slump leads to a wave of defaults, according to a leading Irish economist.

Morgan Kelly, of University College Dublin, said the government is almost powerless to stop the downturn becoming a severe slump. “We’re in a classic post-bubble recession, yet we can’t do anything that a country would normally do in this situation because we’re inside the eurozone,” Prof Kelly said. “We can’t cut interest rates, we can’t devalue, and there is a lot less room for fiscal stimulus than people think. We’re stuck.

“We have a domestic recession now colliding with a global recession. It is the state of the banking system that will determine how terrible this will be, and frankly that is looking very shaky.”
60
Michael Randallbard Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
GOLD HIT $1,000.00 USD TODAY

Here’s the kicker….if the BoC cuts rates and the CAD drops against the USD but still drops against the Euro what will that do to Gold priced in CAD?
61
krrish2 Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Micheal Randallbards,

Please do not try to stand on silly point just one cover drive and your helmet will blow up in the air and your teeth’s Ohh and please don’t try to bat infront of me otherwise this left handed fast pace bowler will deliver a bouncer on over pitch that will blo your bat,pad,and ofcourse your helmet again and please don’t try to be on bowlers side otherwise this left handed batsman going to shoot the ball in the air over boundry line that would be definitiley sixer on extra cover boundry.Anyway…..
SMART US & EUROPEAN CANADIAN ASIAN INVESTORS BUYING IN VANCOUVER - STILL CHEAP!

Micheal Rendalbards why don’t you take a shower today every body knows that you are residing over sand. Micheal be careful don’t let the gold slip away while you tumble over sand.Oh ho ho ho-Watch Out!!!!!
62
Michael Randallbard Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Krissst..I doubt you will be able to understand this but here goes anyway
63
krrish2 Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Sure Micheal, your graphs are above the shoulders but feets I mean base is over sand. do you live in richmond?good luck micheal.
64
Garth Turner’s New Book and Blog at Investing Intelligently Says:
March 14th, 2008 at 1:29 am
[…] a new book out called “Greater Fool” as reported by Vancouver Condo Info (see “Us housing market problems to show up in Canada?). It’s all about the coming crash in housing prices in Canada. He’s also started a blog […]
65
Drachen Says:
March 14th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Is it just me or is there a subtle irony at play here? MR and Krrish debating whether Gold or Real Estate is where you should put your money…

rofl
66
scullboy Says:
March 14th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Drachen:

Did you see the Doctor Who episode where the Daleks met the Cybermen for the first time?
67
cashisking Says:
March 14th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Just moved here from Toronto but grew up and went to University here. I have been in finance since I left school. I bought my first house in 1993 at the age of 26. It was a good time to buy b/c my mortgage payments + the interest on my down payment (ie cost of capital) was less than rent. Also the headlines in popular media were questioning whether you should ever again own realestate. My father who dabbled in realestate pointed out that these were the exact headlines in popular media back in the early 80’s and anyone who bought at that time had made a killing.
The smartest guys always roll there eyes when they hear “it’s different this time” - which is interchangeable with “it’s different out here”. It’s not. It never is. Realestate prices are out of whack in the short term. Whether this extends another year (>5%) or not I can’t tell you. It will end and it will be ugly. I suggest people pick up a Financial Times (funny pink paper), WSJ, NYT, or for the really bullish Barrons to find out what is going on in the real world and how it may impact “the most beautiful place on earth”. Easy money (credit) is drying up and the de leveraging of North American balance sheets has begun. This will probably take a couple of years and have some nasty surprises along the way. Fortunately were six months in.
Prediction is for 25% decline over next two years.

Drachen: ellery “Someone with little cash, but a mortgage and investments” Mortgage and investments are...
crabman: BC Economic Index Confirms Economy is Slowing.
Anonymous: Almost to 20,000! We’re at 19971. 29 units more and we’ll hit the big 20K!
Re-diculous: Just posted by Paul Inventory: 19,971 ! (20K - 29!) S/L 30% (SFH), 37% (Condo)
Any mouse: Last two day have been very quite at the Woodwards site. Today it was dead.

Vancouver Condo Info

GreaterFool.ca -predictions of a canadian RE crash

67 Responses to “GreaterFool.ca -predictions of a canadian RE crash”

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