Did you see the Doctor Who episode where the Daleks met the Cybermen for the first time?

rofl

Please do not try to stand on silly point just one cover drive and your helmet will blow up in the air and your teeth’s Ohh and please don’t try to bat infront of me otherwise this left handed fast pace bowler will deliver a bouncer on over pitch that will blo your bat,pad,and ofcourse your helmet again and please don’t try to be on bowlers side otherwise this left handed batsman going to shoot the ball in the air over boundry line that would be definitiley sixer on extra cover boundry.Anyway…..
SMART US & EUROPEAN CANADIAN ASIAN INVESTORS BUYING IN VANCOUVER - STILL CHEAP!

Micheal Rendalbards why don’t you take a shower today every body knows that you are residing over sand. Micheal be careful don’t let the gold slip away while you tumble over sand.Oh ho ho ho-Watch Out!!!!!

Here’s the kicker….if the BoC cuts rates and the CAD drops against the USD but still drops against the Euro what will that do to Gold priced in CAD?

The Dublin government appears to be almost powerless to prevent a severe downturn. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports

The Irish banking system faces acute strains and may require a phase of temporary nationalization as the property slump leads to a wave of defaults, according to a leading Irish economist.

Morgan Kelly, of University College Dublin, said the government is almost powerless to stop the downturn becoming a severe slump. “We’re in a classic post-bubble recession, yet we can’t do anything that a country would normally do in this situation because we’re inside the eurozone,” Prof Kelly said. “We can’t cut interest rates, we can’t devalue, and there is a lot less room for fiscal stimulus than people think. We’re stuck.

“We have a domestic recession now colliding with a global recession. It is the state of the banking system that will determine how terrible this will be, and frankly that is looking very shaky.”

just had the distinct pleasure of jaywalking across Hornby Street at the same time Bob Rennie was…. of course he was going in the opposite direction….as usual

They’ll be a laughing matter all right… the question is more who will me laughing, and who won’t.

Perhaps someone will bookmark this comment as one of the more ill-informed opinions posted on this blog. Probably not, though, there are just too many of them.

References to this type of nonsense, made in the future, won’t be a laughing matter.

it’s been long time since new york got loose motion but haven’t feel any sign of downturn in decades to come here in Vancouver.I would like to read statement from any opponents.Anybody?

Good move, Pope! After all, it’s just an opinion.

That link regarding the US is important, thanks. The whole financial world looks to that satellite, the DJIA as it crunches out the daily numbers. As they say, “when New York sneezes, the whole world catches a cold”. And I say, “When New York giggles, the whole world laughs heartily”.

Anyway, as a matter of interest, can somebody tell me who are buying those multi-million dollar homes everyday for weeks that I see on Paul’s Numbers? ]]> http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/03/greaterfoolca-predictions-of-a-canadian-re-crash.html#comment-12303 The Pope Thu, 13 Mar 2008 19:44:21 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/03/greaterfoolca-predictions-of-a-canadian-re-crash.html#comment-12303 Remember Andrew that 'Rich Foreigners' were supposed to be driving the market in '81 before it suddenly dropped in half. They were also supposed to be driving the market in Miami up until a few years ago. Its one of those vague feel-good arguments that is always used to justify bubble prices when in the end it always comes down to speculation. If you were very very wealthy why would you purchase property in Vancouver over any other market in the world? Again, I think you should put the numbers into perspective before you rely on 'wealthy foreigners' to support the future of our market: China has a population of 1.3 billion people with about 300k of those being millionaires. The US has a population around 300 million with about 2.5 million being millionaires. Thats a big difference, there are as many millionaires in New York as there are in China. Remember Andrew that ‘Rich Foreigners’ were supposed to be driving the market in ‘81 before it suddenly dropped in half. They were also supposed to be driving the market in Miami up until a few years ago. Its one of those vague feel-good arguments that is always used to justify bubble prices when in the end it always comes down to speculation.

If you were very very wealthy why would you purchase property in Vancouver over any other market in the world? Again, I think you should put the numbers into perspective before you rely on ‘wealthy foreigners’ to support the future of our market:

China has a population of 1.3 billion people with about 300k of those being millionaires. The US has a population around 300 million with about 2.5 million being millionaires. Thats a big difference, there are as many millionaires in New York as there are in China.

“It’s like flipping a coin 100 times and playing heads or tails. If you flip 50 times in a row and it landed on heads what do you think the chances are it will be tails for the 51st time?”

Are you saying that markets are random? If not it’s a terrible analogy.

A better analogy would be the video of the 777 from Boeing a few years back, the wing stress test (I’m sure you can find a video if you look). They stressed the wings up to the safety standard, no problem but as they kept increasing the stress it got more and more likely that the wing would break until *BAM* all at once. Nobody could have predicted exactly how much force it would take but anyone with the numbers could have given you a range where it would break. Same goes for the markets and we’ve been in the “break zone” for a while now, I personally think it’s impossible for prices to climb another 20% and highly unlikely that they’ll climb 10% without a collapse. Also, unlike the wing test you can’t hold at a certain level, once it gets beyond a sustainable level it’s either up or down, there is no flat.

So, given all that, YES you can predict when the collapse will come but not with pinpoint accuracy.

I say most probably (95%) this will be the year when we go over the top, possibly (4.9%) next year, incredibly slim chance (.1%) the year after. Beyond that, it is IMO impossible for prices to keep going upwards here.

As patriotz pointed out so convincingly yeasterday, they’re not rich because they’re stupid, and it’s the smart money that will drive this market lower.

Not sure what has you so rattled. I clearly stated a point that language has no merit on how investments work. Your comments tend to make me think that you are trying to sound smarter then you are and most likely still attending post-secondary. You cannot come up with any more information other then trying to down play someones grasp on the English language.

Moldcity on the other hand made a great point about Krissh and how his comments do not flow and contradict themselves.

As for being smarter than anyone on this board it doesn’t really make much difference if I am or if I am not. Nobody has successfully predicted the actual day of market increase or decrease. As you can see from the past Garth Turner does need to guess since he was wrong in the past and this could regain some credibility. However, IMO he should have come out with the prediction a couple of years ago. He is just trying to play it safe.

Let me ask a question. If we don’t crash this year and I come out and say we will crash next year does that make me some type of genius?

It’s like flipping a coin 100 times and playing heads or tails. If you flip 50 times in a row and it landed on heads what do you think the chances are it will be tails for the 51st time? Chances, fundamentally, are 50/50 however I would take the gamble and say it is going to be tails.

I agree with your point, however, as you say everything is tied together. It’s a global economy. However, I don’t think the demand of the rich (people who move over here from Asia) will decline. You don’t see economy going bad influencing LV’s annual sales. It’s always the weak or the poor gets influenced the first. I think people who buy real estate in Metro Vancouver don’t have to worry so much. It just won’t hit them as hard. However, the ones live in the suburb will be influence more. So as the concept for the rest of the Canada.

I know it’s a sad thing, and I don’t want it to happen that way too.

Of course China is not going to stop building, just as we aren’t, but lets put that into perspective. The big story with both China and India is their growth rate, not the actual size of their economy. In our excitement over the growth story lets not forget who actually buys the majority of our exports. The US economy is bigger than the next four largest economies in the world (Japan, Germany, China and the UK) combined. India has an economy about the size of Florida.

Both China and India’s rapid growth rate has been tightly tied to providing cheap goods to the west. With inflation driving up prices in the east and signs of a global slowdown do you really believe ANY of this demand is locked in?

I agree - Please lets try to keep the comments away from personal insults. I like to leave this site as an open forum and not cut stuff out, but the personal insults get boring to wade through and don’t advance the discussion at all. I appreciate everyones contributions to the comments on this site, angry rants and all, but lets keep them general and stay away from the personal.

Remember if you can’t say something nice..

The fact of the material is booming so high is really because China is buying 50% of all the construction material from the world. That’s why the price is not coming down. You think China is going to stop building? I highly doubt it!!!!

IMHO, Turner, as mentioned by Patriotz, has been very wrong in the past, but here he is only stating the obvious. I personally believe the crash (yes crash) in the condo market will mirror that of what is happening in the US, but with detached land, we’ll see a long, deflation of prices over the next 5 years, before we see a bottom. As far as the Fraser Valley is concerned, we are definitely at the peak.

But I take solace in the fact that a) we make very good money b) there are, and will be plenty of good opportunities in the stock market and we can make up the difference, and c) we’re not shackled with a 40 year mortgage from buying overpriced real estate. We do own a house in Delta that we bought in 99.

You probably have to wait for the right chance… but looking at the high material and labour cost, it just can’t be cheaper to build something.

The problem with this line of thought is that it leaves out a few things. The construction labor market is constrained right now which drives costs up, but like all markets this can change. The reason the labor market is constrained is that they are building a LOT of supply.

Condo towers were shooting up all over Miami and were never going to go down in price until 2005, when suddenly they ran out of buyers and discovered that they had overbuilt. Look at that market now, Banks have actually put several towers on a blacklist that they will not finance, and prices have been dropping for two years, the most dramatic being losses of up to half the original asking price.