Shocking real estate losses in Sydney
After hosting the 2000 summer Olympics, Sydney Australia has seen some astounding losses on real estate speculation. The outer suburbs are seeing median price drops between $100 to $450 per week since early 2004. In Sydney property prices peaked three years after they hosted the games, will Vancouver’s market hold on that long?
One of the obvious differences between Vancouver and Sydney (asides from the summer / winter games hosting) is that their games took place at the beginning of a global credit boom, whereas ours seem to be happening at a time of contracting credit. This will likely have an effect on when our local market peaks.
The MVS Valuers analysis shows that anyone who has bought as long ago as January 2002 and resold recently in Sydney’s west and south west is likely to have copped a loss.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is today expected to unveil a plan to help families battling housing stress in a move designed to take the heat out of the latest Reserve Bank rate hike. Last month, on the day before the central bank increased rates to an 11-year high of 7 per cent, Mr Rudd announced the government’s $850 million first-home saver accounts scheme.
Mr Rudd’s announcement comes after new research shows 1.1 million low to middle income households are now spending more than 30 per cent of their income on housing. To present an accurate picture, anomalies such as upgraded homes, sales within families and vacant blocks that have been built on were removed from the analysis.
Among some of the worst losses studied, a home in New Cambridge St, Fairfield West bought for $780,000 in November 2004 sold in July last year for $415,000, a loss of 46.8 per cent.
At Bond Place, Oxley Park, a unit bought for $455,000 in August 2005 sold last May for $250,000.
At McAndrew Close, Lurnea, a house bought for $420,000 in December, 2004 sold last June for $267,000.
On average houses actually bought over the past five years and then resold have resulted in losses of $20,912 in Sydney’s west and $20,435 in the south west for their owners. MVS Valuers director Peter Raptis said there was little likelihood of a recovery in prices in the short term. He predicted more possible losses ahead, or at best nominal growth.
The full article can be found on news.com.au
There are some areas of eastern Sydney that are still booming, so this slump has not hit their entire market equally. There are some interesting comments on that article as well.
Thanks to Visio for the link.
update: a more positive interpretation from 2006 can be found here
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Snark Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 11:35 am
It looks like fewer and fewer people are planning on buying in the next two years.
http://www.cknw.com/news/news_....._local.cfm
Could affordability be an issue here in the best hype on earth?
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Dosh Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Keep on dreaming. If you can buy real estate now but are afraid you should get in while you can. Every time you post one of these stories its like you dont notice the really obvious fact that this news is not about Vancouver and not about Canada. Your stretching for bad news in other countries while real estate here continues to be a rock solid investment.
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Valley Babe Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 11:56 am
This one should be relatively easy to spin.
The RE pumpers could say it doesn’t matter what the survey says because it polled locals and our market attracts international buyers.
BTW has anybody else noticed the make belief bears on Chipman’s site?
Sure seems like the same crowd but with new names, they seem to be posing as regretful bears who wish they had bought, and now are warning others to buy before they miss the boat.
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
LOVE this reader comment on that story
You know – I bought a couple of investment properties a couple years ago. And it is difficult to make the mortgage payments – but i’m am scrimping and saving to make sure i can, for the benefit of my longer term financial well being. I am going to be seriously unimpressed if the state governments undertake strategies to make houses even more affordable for ‘low income earners’. My properties are my future – whos going to pay for my future when realestate prices are artificially lowered?
Ever think maybe you just bought at a time when prices were artificially pumped up? Ever heard of ’speculation’?
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patriotz Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is today expected to unveil a plan to help families battling housing stress
In plainer language, a plan to keep house prices from falling.
You can’t have it both ways. If house prices are unaffordable, that means they are too high, period. The solution is lower prices, not schemes to make it easier for people to buy at high prices.
Get out of the way and let Mr. Market do his job.
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The Pope Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Dosh, I apologize for darkening your morning with bad news – you are of course correct. this article is not about Vancouver, I thought I made that clear by spelling it “Sydney Australia”.
I personally find it interesting to see whats happening in previous host cities. Of course Sydney is on the other side of the world, if this story makes you uncomfortable all you have to do is make the standard hemispere adjustment.
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Valley Babe Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Maybe Dosh is right, after all, we are different here.
Huge population, every rich Asian, Indian, Middle Eastern billionaire will mover here soon, small land mass, great weather, international IT center, extensive world trade-no dependence on the Americans, world class city, no crime, no traffic gridlock, manufacturing center, world class stock exchange, young workforce AND THE OLYMPICS,
Did I mention we ran out of land before Expo 86?
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jesse Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
“Your stretching for bad news in other countries while real estate here continues to be a rock solid investment.”
True. Just don’t think the 2010 Olympics will definitely cause future appreciation of Vancouver real estate. It might, but other Olympic cities have had varied experience on the matter.
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Dosh”Your stretching for bad news in other countries while real estate here continues to be a rock solid investment” Hah think your foolin me? No body is as stupid as you pretend to be. Nice try!
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Snark Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
anyone see this comment from Rob Chipman? doubter posted “I am beginning really to believe that if I ever want to own a home, I will simply have to leave Vancouver.” and rob replied with this gem:
Is he really comparing the current market to the early eighties?!? 40% price crash and something like 20 YEARS before prices recovered? He’s starting to sound more pessimistic than Alan Angel.
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Drachen Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Dosh:
“Your stretching for bad news in other countries while real estate here continues to be a rock solid investment.”
Your blind ignorance is what stretches the imagination. All American boom cities collapsing Dosh: “Yeah but we’re different, they have economic problems.” International boom cities collapsing, “Yeah but they’re overseas!” All Canadian boom cities except Vancouver and Victoria collapsing, “We’re DIFFERENT here! Really really! I have absolutely no factual information to back up my rhetoric but I just KNOW we’re different here! La la la, I’m not listening to you, see I’m covering my ears!”
Honestly Dosh, I’ve never seen a worse display of wilful ignorance. At least Krrish is just genuinely slow, you seem to have at least an 80s range IQ or so. You CAN figure it out if you choose to.
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patriotz Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
It might, but other Olympic cities have had varied experience on the matter.
That’s a polite way of saying that the Olympics mean squat. If you’d like some experimental evidence, RE in Calgary and Edmonton have always tracked each other closely although only Calgary had the Olympics. The Olympics did nothing for RE in either city. RE prices, which had crashed in the early 80’s like in BC, did not recover until well after the Olympics, when oil prices (surprise) began to rise again.
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Tony Danza Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Have you ever considered that Dosh just posts these stupid comments to get “spanked” by the regulars here while he sits at home “spanking” himself? I know…gross but it is highly probable.
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Dosh Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Very mature tony.
Drachen its not ignorance its a different opinion. you see doom and gloom everywhere, sure some cities have markets that are down, but others like us have markets that are up.
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
BC second in job creation 2001-2006. a quarter of the jobs added were in construction. it only shows a loss of 2,200 jobs in forestry/pulp although earlier there was another piece quoting 10,000 jobs lost in forestry for 2007.
i wonder if construction will still be going strong after the olympics and all the condos are done. a co-worker of mine mentioned that at bcit there are 47 (or was it 67?) classes of electricians. okay, i mangled that. that is, there’s a heck of a lot of people taking up electrician courses, due to the demand in construction.
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Smarter than a retard Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Perhaps Krissh and Dosh are in a special needs home together and they take turns posting dumb comments together and then spank each other off?
Both of them display a glaring lack of intelligence.
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Drachen Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Dosh:
“but others like us have markets that are up.”
As usual you are lacking any factual foundation.
Where other than Vancouver and Victoria are markets up? You can’t just make stuff up and expect us to buy your crap, back it up man, provide sources other than your fevered imagination.
“its not ignorance its a different opinion”
One is just a symptom of the other.
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BDK Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
The slide in the market came as the Bank of Canada cut its key rate half a point to 3.5 per cent, however the rate relief came with a warning that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a deeper and more prolonged slowdown than previously projected.
And Canada’s central bank said this “can be expected to have significant spillover effects on the global economy.”
**** Global Economy EXCEPT Vancouver!****
HAHHAHHAHAHAHA
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andrew Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Why is this website so negative on the economy in Vancouver. Constantly hoping the market is going to crash. The truth is anything could happen.
Looking at the result of the votes, it totally shows the negativity of the people coming to this website. Is it because you guys can’t really “afford” so you guys get angry?
Well, hope to see more of different views here.
Thanks everyone
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Drachen Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Andrew:
“Constantly hoping the market is going to crash.”
I think you’re missing the point. We don’t HOPE the market will crash we KNOW the market will crash. The debate here is mostly about when and how much. Any rudimentary analysis from a moderately intelligent spectator quickly arrives at the same conclusion. Markets don’t climb like they have in Vancouver without a following crash unless there is a fundamental change in the market. This is Economic law, it is not cheatable, adjustable or malleable.
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-A- Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
“Honestly Dosh, I’ve never seen a worse display of wilful ignorance. At least Krrish is just genuinely slow, you seem to have at least an 80s range IQ or so. You CAN figure it out if you choose to.”
Drachen, you’re way off, it’s in the low 60’s max!
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Drachen Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Nah, give him some benefit of the doubt, most people below 65 IQ can’t tie their own shoe, he can type and he even gets most of the words right (unlike some (well only one really) people around here).
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ted Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Constantly hoping the market is going to crash. The truth is anything could happen.
anything? Thats very open minded of you, but I think its important to keep an open mind so I’d love to see anything that supports an argument for prices never going down.
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visio Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
rentals in newly completed buildings??? Check this simple query on craigslist:
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca.....;bedrooms=
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blueskies Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
dosh:
here’s a perma bull:
http://tinyurl.com/26ay5v
guaranteed to buy something real soon.
this will the high end market for the next 25 years……
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andrew Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Well… as I assumed the kind of response I would get.
I guess I will just stay as a reader then. Thanks for your all’s feedback.
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bdk Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
“I’d love to see anything that supports an argument for prices never going down.”
Andrew, you were invited to submit anything that’d support the argument for prices never going down.
Just as I assumed you can’t..
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paulb Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
REBGV stats are out:
Looks like sales declined 6.4% this year compared to Feb 07 and 9% from Feb 06.
Listings on the other hand rose 26.2 % compared to Feb 07 and 21% over Feb 06. Hmmm can you spot the trend?
Prices are up .5% from last month
I will put the detailed monthly stats up tonight on my site.
http://www.northshoreproperties.ca
Look forward to your analysis Pope!
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-A- Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Drachen, speaking of IQ, I think anyone with any IQ better log on to Rob’s Blog. and better draw the conclusion that they better put down the keyboard and speedial your Realtor because the charts clearly point to further price appreciation for ever-well at least that’s what the past performance would suggest.
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ted Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Andrew, I didn’t mean that to come across as rude, I really would like to see something that supports an argument against a US style bubble market crash. I hope you understand why I feel that the Vancouver market is not a good investment right now. Its not that I can’t afford anything, its that from an investment standpoint why would I buy? What long-term fundamentals are keeping prices high?
When I look around I see a lot of short term projects putting a squeeze on construction costs, but I don’t see local wages or rents rising to match. Personally I’m doing fine, but none of the statscan numbers have shown any dramatic wage increases, rent or immigration increases. I’m also astounded by the thin margin some of my friends and neighbors are operating on.
I truly would like to see some varied opinions posted, because perhaps I am being too negative, but I see a lot of storm clouds on the horizon (credit contraction, US recession, forestry shutdown, etc). So far I haven’t seen anything other than vague feelgood stuff and speculation propping up prices. If there is something I’m not considering I’d really like to be made aware of it.
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Drachen Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
-A-
Well that’s accurate as long as your definition of “past performance” only includes the last 10-20 years and only the Vancouver market.
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jadeeast Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Along with Ted I am truly interested in finding a well constructed, logical, intelligent and compelling argument that is Bullish on Vancouver Real Estate from any source.
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franko Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
dosh,
If you dared to pull your head out of the sand, and stood on your tippy toes, you might just be able to see Edmonton, Calgary and Seattle, who were all convinced they were different last year at this time.
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Clarke Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
There is no argument for the RE price appreciation here that has not been demolished several times over and it has been that way since VHB-though Mohican did pretty well and fleshing things out further. In addition, none of the bull arguments (if you even call them that) bears any relationship to any sort of rational economic or financial analysis. Instead, you get the usual platitudes about the booming economy, running out of land, or everyone wanting to live here.
We do not have any bulls here. We have Krish/Satv, and Dosh who are sub marginal morons, but neither of them has presented any sort of convincing counter explanation to what is happening in the GVRD RE market. I do not respond to them because I think they are just trolling to try and incite flamings.
If you wander over to Chipman’s blog, the resident bulls cannot put together any rational argument either.
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
where is your arguments?
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
oh come on anony, at least get the grammar correct…
is.. arguments
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
What kind of survey is this when there is no bull here?”a scary face of bears”….???
“you get the usual platitudes about the booming economy, running out of land, or everyone wanting to live here.”
what else would make you happy?you idiot when your own place doesn’t seem best place to you on earth what else place would like to accomodate your worthless body?
are you entertaining the idea that you are a personal bit#h of vhb and mohican who present old data with their own made headlines?
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blueskies Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
who are sub marginal morons,
too #$@$%$# funny!!
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scullboy Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
hey anon,
You sound an awful lot like an angry version of Krrish. Kind of reminds me of a monkey baring fangs and flinging lots of poo at his screen. What’s the matter? Seeing the day when all that money mommy and daddy paid for your home goes down the drain? Don’t worry, you can sell your kids organs to pay the mortgage. He’ll, I’ll buy them all just to keep your ‘tard genes out of the pool…
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
scullboy,
you are such a dweeb!you remind me of a drunken hooker at fourty playing with 23 year old toy. you are not even from vancouver you are from toronto and that idiot above,I mean that mohican’s whore is also from prairies,both of you idiots don’t know anything about my city,you don’t know, I will throw all of your vibrators with remote control in the gutter you fucking fringing idiot. I won’t utter a bad word for vancouver and won’t let the hookers spit their filth on my city.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Well I was born and raised here and I’ll be the first say Vancouver is going down the toilet, wrecked by profiteering scumbags.
A story about 40 year mortgages is coming up on the CBC National.
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
you mean to say you don’t know anything personally and you are unable to present any argument but CBC will explain that for you is that right?
you are such a joker!
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DoDo1975 Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Andrew,
You want negativity. Here it is.
Vancouver real estate will never crash. Instead, in 20 years, 90% of the population will be slaves to the bank, still hardly making a dent in their 40 year mortgages.
The moderate inflation and increasing wages have now brought their payments into the 45% of gross income range. Only 10 more years until the last 10 years of their mortgage is finally actually affordable. They are 70 when they pay it off.
The Vancouver economy has stagnated the whole time because no-one had any money left over after their mortgage payment to buy new cars, fuel, food out or really anything. The only people that use any of the services are the tourists, and not many of these come due to the gloomy attitude of the residents.
Whats interesting is these events would be forced to happen if real estate does not crash, but if they happen people will move and prices will crash.
Bottom line is, unless you are a bank, realtor or house flipper; high housing prices are not good for you. They only make you feel wealthy and cause you to borrow. Actually, they are really only good for house flippers and realtors while prices are rising quickly, which any sane person would admit has to stop very soon.
So it comes down to the banks owning pretty much everyone but the rich; or a crash.
I think any positive person, who cares about society in general and not their own selfish hopes and desires and profit potential(obviously not bankers) will actually want and hope for the impending crash.
So really; who is negative and who is positive????????????????
I challenge you or any bull, not to worry about whether or not a price crash will occur, and not to try to justify the prices either. Just do this. Tell me why high prices are a good thing for society!! In the long term!!!
Are some people pissed off they can’t afford place to live? Well they have every right to be. Part of what made Vancouver one of the best places to live was the relatively high quality of life the middle class could live. That is rapidly being taken from us, and most of you damn sheeple are applauding it because you can’t see past your noses.
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franko Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
WOW, I wonder if those last few anonmous comments are a subconscious cry for help.
Anyway, looks like the party’s over in Victoria….prices DOWN 5.95% year to date.
Fasten your seat belts.
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richard Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
“We will see that five-year posted rate start to edge down as worries around the financial markets here in Canada start, too,” Muir said Tuesday.
sorry… too lazy to link right now…
i don’t get it. why would posted rates go down when worries around the financial market starts in canada? wouldn’t they go up instead?
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
andrew,
pop open yahoo finance. all you see is negative news. what else do you expect. the market is crashing. people is losing their jobs. do you really expect real estate to go up. by the end of 2008, you will see yoy loss.
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Anonymous Says:
March 4th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
DoDo1975,
You are right on the money. A health economy is an economy with deflation. Isn’t great, save now to buy more later.
Bubbled R/E is bad for society. Why would anyone take on a $400,000 mortgage for a condo? Are they F*cken crazy? Have they thought about how long that will take to pay it off??
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Patiently Waiting Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 12:16 am
We’re all familiar with the howmuchamonth crowd. Now the condo marketers are turning it up a notch, advertising this condo project as starting at $37/day.
http://sunsetgrove.ca/
Yeeesh
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patriotz Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 1:21 am
sunsetgrove.ca:
We have detected that your web browser does not meet the minimum requirements to enter this site.
Well aren’t we exclusive? Firefox 2.0 under Linux is not good enough for their website!
Can’t get a competent web designer by the look of it. Or maybe they’re just pre-screening for buyers with the least analytical skills.
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evergreen Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 2:09 am
Tell me why high prices are a good thing for society!! In the long term!!!
Translation: Is inflation good for the economy? We know the answer.
Are some people pissed off they can’t afford place to live? Well they have every right to be. Part of what made Vancouver one of the best places to live was the relatively high quality of life the middle class could live. That is rapidly being taken from us,
So, the homeless from Hastings/Carrall/Columbia can riot too? Get real, dude. There are no free lunches anymore. And why refer to only the middle class? Most of us have to work exceedingly hard for a living and for only mediocre pay.
Tell me seriously what you would do if you had several million dollars (your very own cash)? Like that Burnaby woman who won the lottery. First stop – buy a property or upgrade, no? Next stop, invest in some stocks etc. Don’t think you’ll put all of the money into the bank for a few % p.a.
The bottom line is that the rich gets richer and the poor gets poorer – and statistics show that this happens annually in all developed countries (check Forbes’ richest people).
Not only that, the rich are encouraged by governments to invest. In many countries of the world, most of the income tax gathered comes from only a few hundred people (the richest). So they are considered real assets to their economies and other economies (Sultan of Brunei responded to Thatcher’s request for billions of investment dollars for Britain).
Does it matter whether RE crashes or not? Not to the rich. It’s a fact of life that cycles of boom and bust occur and usually, the very well-heeled not only survive but become much richer because they have the resources to hold onto their investments in busts and add on cheaper investments. Prime example: Li Ka Shing (Expo land) had ‘bad’ buys in many places in Asia in the 80s. Now, he’s a billionaire.
Do you think these rich people care whether we are able to own homes or not? Do you care whether the homeless in Hastings/Carrall get housing (maybe, only Tony Danza does)?
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-A- Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 5:54 am
THE MARKET IS ON FIRE
THANKS TO ROB CHIPMAN FOR THIS INFO.:
Febuary Sales Results
Benchmark Price Febuary 1 month change ($) % change
Detached $761,342 +18,852 +2.54%
Attached $472,147 +9,520 +2.1%
Apartments $387,032 +8,696 + 2.3%
February sales volume rose in comparison to January, to 2,676 compared to 1,819 (+47.11%). Sales were lower than February 2007, however, (2,676 vs 2,859 = -6.4%).New listings rose substantially in February, to 5,260, compared to 4,675 in January (+12.5%).
Compared to February of ‘07 the benchmark price is up 14.1% for detached properties, 12.9% for attached properties and 12.7% for apartments.
January’s numbers were 15.7%, 12.4% and 13.8%, respectively.
February increases were 11.4%, 15.1% and 15.3%. Like last month, price growth is slowing, but it’s still growing, and YOY we’re still in double digits.
The sell/list for February was 50.87% (counting backwards the numbers were 38.9% in January, 111.91% in December, 85.37% in November, 62.83% in October, 69.05% in September, 76.77% in August, 78.66% in July and 76.7% in June).
We did not see significant price growth in November or December. That changed in January and has continued through February. Inventory has continued to rise, (a negative for prices), but it hasn’t exploded. Despite wishes to the contrary, the market continues to defy.
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Toronto realtor Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 7:51 am
I work for one of Toronto realtors and although I watch the real estate situation abroad, I am not that familiar with the situation in Australia. But I don’t think that we have to worry about that know. We have very strong real estate market right now and when the crisis in the United States hasn’t affected us much I don’t think that olympics will start a crisis now.
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patriotz Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 7:55 am
So they are considered real assets to their economies and other economies (Sultan of Brunei)
Are you serious? The Sultan of Brunei is a parasitic absolute monarch who skims off the oil wealth of the country for himself. He does nothing productive, just like his counterparts in the Gulf.
Get rid of them and the oil will still be there.
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blueskies Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Get rid of “them” and the oil will still be there.
this is exactly why the Americans are in Iraq and eye balling Iran….
“them” gots the goodies
and we wants it
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Drachen Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Evergreen
That was a nice rant. But you didn’t tie any of your gibberish to Vancouver real estate. All you did was blather on about rich people. I can see that you’re TRYING to make a rational argument but you simply have nothing.
You’re also mistaken on quite a few points. Not all developed countries have a widening wealth gap although most do. This condition is also not a long term trend, last century up until the ’70s the reverse was true.
Middle income earners are THE most relevant group when discussing overall RE prices, because if they can’t afford to buy then it is inevitable that prices will fall. (simple supply and demand, look it up)
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scullboy Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Gosh Anon / Krrrish / Sat
You’re definately Krrsh’s evil twin brother. I feel positively stalked, since apparently you’ve been reading my posts for a while.
Given your dubious skills in English, I’d have to say you are pretty new to the country. If I were a jerk, I’d say “you’re new to the country. It’s full. Please leave”. By your logic the fact that I’ve been in the country longer means Canada is “mine” not “yours”.
I’d also argue I know Canada whole lot better, since I grew up in Halifax (not Toronto). I’ve lived in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal as well.
It’s pretty obvious you’ve never lived anywhere else. You don’t really understand any city other than Vancouver, and you don’t really understand Vancouver well either.
Sorry honey, it’s a nice little town but the locals condo / home owners have lost their minds. Their homes aren’t worth what they think. Homes are worth what you get the day you sell them. The party’s ended…. those who overindulged are going to have a hell of a hangover.
You might want to teach your kid to deliver papers or stitch clothes in a sweatshop or pick-pocket or something. YOu’re probably going to need the money to pay for your “best place on earth” home.
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scullboy Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 8:39 am
On an unrelated topic, is it me, or are there a *LOT* of West End apartments coming up for rent? Almost every building seems to have one or more suites available lately. It could be my imagination but it certainly seem like the case.
I’m not going to say the rents are sane, but at least they’re affordable. You can get a nice 1 bdrm with a fair amount of space 1 block from the ocean for about 1300 bucks.
What do you guys think? Unrelated data point?
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Drachen Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 9:12 am
It’s totally relevant Scullboy. There have been numerous studies on the relationship between rents and purchase price. One method used is the 150-200 rule. Which says that prices normally rest around 150x the monthly rent and if prices go over 200x the monthly rent they ALWAYS return to sub 200 ranges eventually. This has been true for the entire recorded history of real estate.
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blueskies Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 9:22 am
scullboy:
as our resident guru “freako” points out it is a zero sum game … eg. for every person taking possession of their new live-in unit at the Elan there will be a corresponding vacant unit elsewhere, including the apartments you have noticed that are now for rent.
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richard Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 9:59 am
“Firefox 2.0 under Linux is not good enough for their website!”
Well, if you can’t afford to pay for your OS you probably can’t pay for a condo
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bdk Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Scullboy, you’re exactly right.
Forget Krissh comments, using a different name, he’s never had anything relevant to contribute and is probably not a resident, since he’d clearly fail the LPI.
The rental market is already flooded and it’s going to get much worse. This means that rents cannot go up anymore.
The class of renters has declined in the last twelve months.
A year ago there were young trial lawyers and CGA’s applying for the Lions building (Alberni and Bute, 8 year old building) and now it’s international students and waiters with pets.
This proves rents cannot increase and if anything they will decrease as the vacuum is created by the next 9,000 new units.
Spectrum has crashed the market and that’s only 10% of what’s coming!
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bdk Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 11:55 am
I’m hungover the Lions is Alberni and Jervis
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evergreen Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
The Sultan of Brunei is a parasitic absolute monarch who skims off the oil wealth of the country for himself.
True. Problem is he’s got the dough.
Drachen, appreciate your post.
I feel positively stalked, since apparently you’ve been reading my posts for a while.
Don’t flatter yourself. I read everyone’s posts and enjoy best Freako’s, -A-’s and the Pope’s. And no need to try on me those cute bits of psychoanalysis you picked up hitchhiking from Toronto to Vancouver.
I’ll use your advice on overindulgence if I buy one day.
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scullboy Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Uh evergreen, unless you’re the person who posted this:
scullboy,
you are such a dweeb!you remind me of a drunken hooker at fourty playing with 23 year old toy. you are not even from vancouver you are from toronto and that idiot above,I mean that mohican’s whore is also from prairies,both of you idiots don’t know anything about my city,you don’t know, I will throw all of your vibrators with remote control in the gutter you fucking fringing idiot. I won’t utter a bad word for vancouver and won’t let the hookers spit their filth on my city.
I wasn’t addressing you directly. Your posts are usually pretty lucid, and this looks more like Krrish’s to me. I’ve never seen you post something like that but I could be mistaken.
Vancouver really is unique in some ways. You say the real estate market’s out of whack and people seem to think you hate their city. The fastest way to rile people in this town up is to suggest that while it’s a great place to be, it’s not the best place on the planet and it has its own problems. Weird.
Then again, it certainly goes a very long way toward explaining why people pay 500K for a leaky Yaletown shoebox, doesn’t it?
I’ve never lived in a city as emotionally isolated from the rest of the country and indeed the rest of the planet as Vancouver. Even Montreal in 1993 was at least actively engaged in the nation, if only because they were deciding if they were going to leave. They at least seemed aware there *is* a “rest of the country”.
I dunno… I used to think the people here were cooler than the people in Toronto but at least Torontonians can handle criticism of their city.
Miami’s starting to look pretty tempting.
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scullboy Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Just a thought…
Why would a drunken 40 year old hooker play with a 23 year old? That doesn’t make a lot of sense. I mean, hookers get paid right?
I could see a drunken 40 year old try to pick up a 23 year old hooker. I could see a drunken 23 year old try to pick up a 40 year older hooker.
But why would a 23 year old pay for a drunken 40 year old hooker?
I’d think if someone is going to write an insulting post they’d at least try to make it coherent.
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sheeplessinvancouver Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
“after new research shows 1.1 million low to middle income households are now spending more than 30 per cent of their income on housing.”
Will somebody tell me why this is significant? Where were those studies when I rented my first apartment which cost over 50% of my gross? Or the basement suite I rented as a student at 70% of gross?
Why don’t they put the money into co-ops? Oh, let me guess, it’s because the developers, big banks and realtors want a piece of the pie and to do that you have to sell houses to people who can’t afford them.
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evergreen Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Uh evergreen, unless you’re the person who posted this:
No, scullboy, I can’t claim authorship for that. I have respect for all posters. I visit this Blog to seek information about the property market, not to play games. The bears are very sincere in their outlook and advice and I guess I trust my money more with them. Some bulls are irrationally exuberant and I don’t want to be landed with the baby (a beautiful but worthless house). The evidence is not yet compelling for a big crash…but I can wait.
I would prefer to buy in the US which is now fairly priced, but my family loves it here. You should move around more when you’re still young…go to Miami.
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scullboy Says:
March 5th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
I have respect for most posters. Some people don’t seem to be capable of rational thought.
That being said sometimes it seems like everything that needs to be said has been said a million times before so why not post something silly…
Meanwhile things get even crazier here while everywhere else is collapsing.
I can’t figure out if Vancouver is fiddling while Rome burns or I’ve walked into the Masque of the Red Death.
Hell, even in that story eventally reality came crashing in…
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Michael Randallbard Says:
March 6th, 2008 at 1:20 am
Are you talking about THIS Kevin Rudd?
Chasers War on Everything…Must watch, then ask why can’t we get these geniuses to come over here and give our pollys a workout.
Stairway to Kevin
Lastly would Harper please look at this and ask himself who cares if he can speak french, this is a Chinese country now
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evergreen Says:
March 6th, 2008 at 2:11 am
I can’t figure out if Vancouver is fiddling while Rome burns or I’ve walked into the Masque of the Red Death.
Ingenious metaphor! I’m astounded.
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scullboy Says:
March 6th, 2008 at 4:34 am
I missed my calling. I should have been an English prof. I used to get in the high 90’s in university
.
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blueskies Says:
March 6th, 2008 at 7:44 am
There were much glare and glitter and piquancy and phantasm
EAP! it has been 5 decades since i’ve read that story…
thnx for the nostalgia trip!
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evergreen Says:
March 6th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
scullboy, blueskies,
I must read those books. I don’t really care whether property prices move up or down; it’s only money. Now, English literature…this is the stuff that dreams are made of (not some building on a piece of land). Btw, scullboy, it’s never too late (and I don’t mean buying property)!
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scullboy Says:
March 7th, 2008 at 6:36 am
Thanks Evergreen and Blueskies,
You guys would have died had you read the essay I once wrote comparing Hamlet to Great Expectations. I was a big Twin Peaks fan at the time so I used a chess analogy to tie them together. The prof gave me a 97 on the exam and said it was the best essay she’d ever read. My hand was bruised from writing when the essay had finished.
Believe it or not I was at a work function last night and the subject of this blog came up. Krrish, your ears should be burning.
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blueskies Says:
March 7th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Krrish, your ears should be burning.
more like a rectal itch!!
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rx Says:
March 7th, 2008 at 8:37 am
Believe it or not I was at a work function last night and the subject of this blog came up.
Ha! What was the context and did you bring up the topic? I pretty much keep my strong bearish opinions on the market to myself. I have many friends that bought in the last year or two and I don’t want to offend them.
This blog is my dirty little secret, I never mention it to anyone.
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scullboy Says:
March 7th, 2008 at 10:48 am
I didn’t bring up the subject, my co worker did….. he got the news about Brio from his girlfriend. Someone asked him why he was so happy about a project going under, and that started the ball rolling.
Most of the people at the table weren’t from Vancouver and everyone had a thoughtful opinion about what was going to happen to the market.
Interestingly, NOBODY claimed “everyone wants to move here” or “it’s the best place on earth” or anything like that. Everyone had opinions founded on data perceived to be relevant.
The people at the table either had bought years ago or hadn’t bought at all, there weren’t any “new owners” so… the conversation was pretty interesting.