Vancouver real estate market slowdown?
The CBC is looking for personal stories related to Vancouver’s softening real estate market:
What are you hearing about Vancouver’s softening real estate market? Do you know anyone facing foreclosure? Have you heard of any developments going into receivership?
Home resales are down while the number of new listing of homes for sale in Canada is headed up. This comes as CBC News learned that several Vancouver area building projects have come to a halt because of financial difficulties.
While its true that sales are down and listings are up, its not the first time thats happened here. It will take many more months to see if this is the start of our own local real estate crash or just a pothole in the road to infinite price increases. Whether we see an decline in the short term or not, a lack of affordability is clearly taking its toll in other areas : the Vancouver Police Department is reporting that the high cost of living is driving experienced police officers out of Vancouver.
Thanks to Michael and Jadeeast for the links.
[poll=9]
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March 10th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Had the opportunity to speak with one of the key figures in the 2010 Olympics last week, his words resonate with me today…..there is a bubble and it’s heading here. Basically the US economy is in extreme downturn, China has just surpassed Canada as the US’ main trading partner….bad US economy tranlates into poor demand for China’s products….poor demand for China and Asian products in general means there will be no money from overseas to fuel our real estate market.
He mentioned about looking at the number of ‘assignments’ coming up on the market as an indicator…these are pre-sold units where the investor hopes to unload at a profit with no intention of carrying the mortgage…these are up and are beginning to have an effect on recent completed builds.
March 6th, 2008 at 2:38 am
But 28 years of decline has soured the US public on gold. If they are interested at all, they abide by the wise men of the government and the Federal Reserve. “Gold is history,” they are told. “Gold is a story whose time has past.” “Gold is a relic from another era, a useless metal used in fancy dentistry and in jewelry.
March 6th, 2008 at 12:58 am
yeah blueskies that’s why I can buy a million dollar home outright from my gold and silver purchases since 5 years ago. Who cares what happened 204 years ago? Not me. What counts is now. 204 years ago a house in Vancouver was made of twigs and mud and cowhide. Is it worth anything today?
You aren’t too bright, maybe this chart will enlighten you. Gee, looks like almost a 500% gain in 5 years, certainly better than stocks or homes
March 4th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Thanks, jesse. It’s sheer madness to buy a leasehold condo at an average $400K. Living like a Tibetan monk might be a good solution while we wait…
March 4th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
“Do you know if this ratio has changed since then?”
Yes it has. The trouble is that the average lot size has been decreasing so it’s difficult to compare apples to apples. More families these days are opting for townhouses where 25 years ago they would be comfortably in an SFH.
The ratio may have changed a bit recently with longer amortizations on mortgages but this is really a hidden cost. It will all come out in the wash but you may need the patience of a Tibetan monk.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Remember Syndey? Did they have Olym’pimps’ too?
http://www.news.com.au/busines.....atrick.net
March 4th, 2008 at 7:36 am
gold!?!
http://tinyurl.com/2ywekz
Gold is a lousy investment. In fact, it may be one of the worst investments you could ever make.
March 4th, 2008 at 5:28 am
Gold? 204 years to make a buck!
Now, let’s look at gold. If you get squeamish at the sight of truly horrific investment returns, now would be a good time to turn away.
If you’d put that same $1 into gold, your investment would have grown to … ready? … $1.95. Without adjusting for inflation, your $1 would be worth a whole $32.84
Over the 204-year period studied, $1 invested in the stock market grew to $755,163,
http://tinyurl.com/2ywekz
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:24 pm
an anecdotal walk around my neighborhood:
MLS®: V690490
-dropped $40k after two weeks on market
MLS®: V675745
-on market since last summer
MLS®: V689607
-one of 10 listings, in 12 unit duplex complex – on sale since fall
MLS®: V689070
-on market most of last year – relisted this year for approximately same price
one street has 6 houses for sale and three houses being built
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 pm
THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ARTICLE YOU WILL FIND ON SILVER
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:58 pm
click on silver bars list for SLV bar number list. This is the biggest pdf file you will ever see
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:56 pm
I like this the best….go Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays and ask for Jim
Western Coins & Stamp Ltd – 604-278-3235
2-6380 No. 3 Road , Richmond , BC V6Y 2B3
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
HERE ARE SOME DEALERS FOR PHYSICAL BULLION
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Comment by Domus
2008-03-03 21:40:28
Hey Randallbard,
“what is the best way to buy silver in Canada? Is there a CAD$ ETF (or fund) or do you buy SLV in the US?”
For physical silver the best would be to hold it yourself perferably the 1000oz Engelhard of Johnson Matthey bars but definately not in certificate form as that is a piece of paper and institutes such as the Bank of Nova Scotia who sell you such products don’t charge insurance or storage fee when they sell you that certificate. Hence they probably don’t even have the physical to back up your certificate as they have sold it short or else they would charge you those fees when they sell you the certificates.
SLV’s problem is in its custodial arrangements. The silver is unallocated and pooled thus you don’t actually have a claim on any bar and the auditing of the holdings are almost impossible.
The Central Fund of Canada (CEF.A) which is 50% gold 50% silver but at times trades at a premium over NAV as its downside – but you can also sell at a premium, and also Millenium Bullion Fund (MBF100) which is actually one of if not the top performing mutual fund tracked by Morningstar Canada since the beggining of 2008. MBF100 holds 33% gold 33% silver and 33% platinum and unlike CEF.A trades at NAV. MBF100′s downside is its MER’s running at 3%. SLV, CEF.A and MBF100 all have their upside and downside. Take your pick….
Now I thought this was a housing blog. Why are we on the topic of tangible assets without counterparty risks? I want to hear and see the housing bubble collapse!! muhahaha
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Hey Randallbard,
what is the best way to buy silver in Canada? Is there a CAD$ ETF (or fund) or do you buy SLV in the US?
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 pm
URGENT MESSAGE…..YOUR FINANCIAL SALVATION IS IN THIS POST…PAY HEED
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:42 pm
I was basing it on a random stat I remembered from first or second year Economics class, that housing had gone up at a ratio of 3 to 1 versus income since 1970
bdk, good to read your post and get a scientific ratio for housing versus income, (3:1). Do you know if this ratio has changed since then? What do you think might be a sensible ratio now so that we can compute an adjusted real price for housing and get an idea when it’s safe to buy?
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:22 pm
ROFLMAO jesse! Thanks for that!
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
“Hate to rip the ladder out from under yor feet, but rather than trying to gauge the market from what your 2 buddies are doing/saying/seeing, why not tune into the stats from FVREB to discover that sales this January were down 4%, and listings were up 18%.”
“For a more recent indication, paulb’s blog tells us that North Van inventory jumped 31%, and West Van listings jumped 35% during the first 2 months this year.”
The observations I’ve made have come from walking around the neighbourhood and comparing what I’m seeing to the past. Maybe it’s the calm before the storm. I’m not friends with these people, but curious enough about the real estate market to ask questions. Friends who were trying to make money from real estate sold last year.
And I personally haven’t any worries. I’d like to see prices go down so I can buy another property when prices are about to hit bottom.
I don’t know much about North Van, but I have been expecting prices to go down in the Valley with gas prices going up and traffic being what it is. This is more anecdotal evidence, but I’ve talked to a few who gave up that big place in Langley to move to a smaller place in Vancouver/Burnaby/New West because they were tired of spending time and money commuting. This may take some time because our high dollar is keeping gas prices relatively low.
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Was it primary or secondary efflorescence?
it was tit-uary efflorescence complete with pasties
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
I know what it is jesse, that’s why I asked if it was primary or secondary. Primary means essentially nothing, secondary would be a sign of water intrusion.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Drachen: Wikipedia article on Efflorescence
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
I would stay away from anything associated with Chandler, but what you’re seeing is most likely just mortar mixed extremely rich, it will produce what you are describing, they use an extra rich mixture as it’s safer then not being rich enough, they problem dissappears as it leeches out, takes about a year. That being said there could be other problems with that project.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:54 pm
“”Some anecdotal information about what ordinary people seem to be doing/saying/seeing”"
sheeplessin vancouver,
Hate to rip the ladder out from under yor feet, but rather than trying to gauge the market from what your 2 buddies are doing/saying/seeing, why not tune into the stats from FVREB to discover that sales this January were down 4%, and listings were up 18%.
For a more recent indication, paulb’s blog tells us that North Van inventory jumped 31%, and West Van listings jumped 35% during the first 2 months this year.
Maybe it’s time to wake up, No?
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Jesse, you cracked me up.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Was it primary or secondary efflorescence?
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 pm
anecdotal leaky condo story
Check out the front of Tribeca lofts in the
900 block of Richards at Nelson
There are very evident signs of “efflorescence” all along the brick columns….
…and yes this is a Chandler Development
boondoggle in the making
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Some anecdotal information about what ordinary people seem to be doing/saying/seeing. It’s not a representative sample of the market as a whole, just little stories.
I know of two places that just sold. One was sold without being listed. The seller had a buyer before deciding to sell. The second sold for 10% over list and was probably on the market for a couple of weeks. One buyer used equity from an existing condo and broke even. Another buyer also sold an existing condo and probably didn’t have any problem affording the place they bought.
Of the people I know who are selling, two are planning to buy or have bought out of town and one will use the equity in a existing place to buy something else
I am not seeing as many for sale signs, but except for really overpriced places, the ones that are for sale seem to be selling fast. Sales seem to be among those who own already. First time buyers are sitting on the sidelines, building up the down payment and waiting for prices to come down. The only people I know who’d consider presales or even new homes are FTBs.
Looking at the exterior of some of the buildings built before 2002, I’m starting to see signs of a possible second chapter in the leaky condo story.
Many people are thinking of buying second homes outside of Vancouver and not all have to dip into their existing home’s equity to do this.
Nobody seems worried about the crisis in the US or the Canadian economy in general, but the real estate madness of the last few years seems to have cooled down. The few who are aware and worried are staying put.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
“Average list price was $616,058(up), while average sales price was $603,836(up), a difference of $12,222, or 1.98% (up). Average DOMs was 35 (down).”
The sun rose at 6:35 today (up). Temperature was 4C (down). I got out of bed at 8:03 (up). I had 2 glasses of orange juice (up) followed by a piece of toast (down). 5 distinct voices in my head today (up) but only two were arguing (down).
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Thanks for the numbers -A-.
I hate visiting that other blog.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:26 pm
as posted on cocos’ blog:
“I never thought I would see anything like this in my life,” said James Steele, an HSBC economist in New York.
http://tinyurl.com/3ybhng
The debt markets are freezing ever deeper, a full eight months into the crunch. Contagion is spreading into the safest pockets of the US credit universe.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
The last sentence sums it up. Prices going down.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
There were 453 price changes (up), of which 66, or 14.57% (up), were increases. 85.43% of the price changes were decreases.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:44 am
I read that as an indication that the gap between over-priced listings and sales is decreasing, meaNing prices are rising.
happy
happy
in lalaland
-a-
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 am
Gold, oil rocket to record highs
http://tinyurl.com/yvmkys
hmmm there’s that “rocket” work……
Gold prices scaled unprecedented heights Monday, hitting record territory alongside crude oil as investors looked for a safe place to park their money while the U.S. economy and greenback struggle.
reporter actually seems to be looking for some superlatives to describe the situation….
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:38 am
ACCORDING TO ROB’S BLOG THE MARKET IS ON FIRE !
BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME POSTERS BLOCKED FROM HIS BLOG, I AM SURE HE WOULD LIKE ME TO PASS THIS INFO ALONG:
COURTESY OF ROB:
Weekly Roundup
by Rob Chipman
For the week ending March 1 there were 1,261 new listings (down) and 730 sales (up), for a sell/list of 57.89% (up).
Average list price was $616,058(up), while average sales price was $603,836(up), a difference of $12,222, or 1.98% (up). Average DOMs was 35 (down).
97, or 13.29% of all sales went over list price (both up). Average list price of overlists was $608,329, while average sale price of over lists was $626,595, an average difference of $18,266, or +3.00% . Average DOMs for overlists was 15 (no change). Listed for slightly less than average, sold for more than average, in less time.
Of the overlists, 28 were in Vancouver West, 18 in East Van, 4 in Richmond, 2 in Port Coquitlam, 5 in Port Moody, 3 in New West, 16 in North Van, 5 in Maple Ridge, 2 in Coquitlam, 10 in Burnaby and 4 in Surrey.
The highest overlist went at 9% over ($130,000/ 11 DOM). The biggest underlist was 16% under (399,000/41 DOM)
There were 453 price changes (up), of which 66, or 14.57% (up), were increases. 85.43% of the price changes were decreases. The average original list price was $631,246, while the average new list price is $615,298, a difference of $15,948, or 2.53%. Average DOM to price change was 55 (up).
The average list price of sales was 100.12% of the average original list price of price changes (up); the average sales price was 95.66% of the average new price of price changes (up). I read that as an indication that the gap between over-priced listings and sales is decreasing, meaing prices are rising. We’ll see if this proves true with monthly stats.
Inventory reached 10,593, (down) of which 2,407, (down) or 22.72%, (down) were over 90s.
3.65% of all active listings in my area had their prices reduced this week (up).
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:06 am
That’s okay! Because with the massive black market economy here, we can depend on organized crime to enforce (a kind of) law and order! Maybe Vancouver council members should go on a junket to Russia and take notes…
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 am
“Vancouver Police Department is reporting that the high cost of living is driving experienced police officers out of Vancouver.”
You mean police officers are like everybody else?
There is a real danger of a sick city if people serving the community are not really part of it. Less sense of ownership.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 am
you’re right, its a badly worded poll. I was thinking of the buyer that doesn’t mind losing money in the short-term but just cant find the right property to lose it on. I’m open to suggestions for alternate poll questions.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:46 am
We might be rushing the casualty count here a bit, but they will come, fast and and furious…it might just take a little more time.
The damage could have been dampened a bit if only this market had caved in a bit earlier, but unfortunately, when it fizzeled and hovered near the brink a couple of times there were just barely enough fools around to plunge in and revive it. Too bad. This will only increase the damage.
How blind does one have to be not to understand that this is one of the biggest bubbles in the friggin world, that can not possibly be sustained as the rest of the world is crumbling aroud us.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 am
The first two options on the poll amount to the same thing, namely “I think the market is overvalued”. Overvalued markets always correct.
So I haven’t voted yet.