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Vancouver real estate market slowdown?

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The CBC is looking for personal stories related to Vancouver’s softening real estate market:

What are you hearing about Vancouver’s softening real estate market? Do you know anyone facing foreclosure? Have you heard of any developments going into receivership?

Home resales are down while the number of new listing of homes for sale in Canada is headed up. This comes as CBC News learned that several Vancouver area building projects have come to a halt because of financial difficulties.

While its true that sales are down and listings are up, its not the first time thats happened here. It will take many more months to see if this is the start of our own local real estate crash or just a pothole in the road to infinite price increases. Whether we see an decline in the short term or not, a lack of affordability is clearly taking its toll in other areas : the Vancouver Police Department is reporting that the high cost of living is driving experienced police officers out of Vancouver.

Thanks to Michael and Jadeeast for the links.

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Reality Check

Had the opportunity to speak with one of the key figures in the 2010 Olympics last week, his words resonate with me today…..there is a bubble and it's heading here. Basically the US economy is in extreme downturn, China has just surpassed Canada as the US' main trading partner….bad US economy tranlates into poor demand for China's products….poor demand for China and Asian products in general means there will be no money from overseas to fuel our real estate market.

He mentioned about looking at the number of 'assignments' coming up on the market as an indicator…these are pre-sold units where the investor hopes to unload at a profit with no intention of carrying the mortgage…these are up and are beginning to have an effect on recent completed builds.

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Michael Randallbard

yeah blueskies that's why I can buy a million dollar home outright from my gold and silver purchases since 5 years ago. Who cares what happened 204 years ago? Not me. What counts is now. 204 years ago a house in Vancouver was made of twigs and mud and cowhide. Is it worth anything today?

You aren't too bright, maybe this chart will enlighten you. Gee, looks like almost a 500% gain in 5 years, certainly better than stocks or homes

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evergreen

Thanks, jesse. It's sheer madness to buy a leasehold condo at an average $400K. Living like a Tibetan monk might be a good solution while we wait…

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jesse

"Do you know if this ratio has changed since then?"

Yes it has. The trouble is that the average lot size has been decreasing so it's difficult to compare apples to apples. More families these days are opting for townhouses where 25 years ago they would be comfortably in an SFH.

The ratio may have changed a bit recently with longer amortizations on mortgages but this is really a hidden cost. It will all come out in the wash but you may need the patience of a Tibetan monk.

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visio

Remember Syndey? Did they have Olym'pimps' too?
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,254…

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blueskies

gold!?!

http://tinyurl.com/2ywekz

Gold is a lousy investment. In fact, it may be one of the worst investments you could ever make.

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Strataman

Gold? 204 years to make a buck! 🙂

Now, let's look at gold. If you get squeamish at the sight of truly horrific investment returns, now would be a good time to turn away.

If you'd put that same $1 into gold, your investment would have grown to … ready? … $1.95. Without adjusting for inflation, your $1 would be worth a whole $32.84

Over the 204-year period studied, $1 invested in the stock market grew to $755,163,

http://tinyurl.com/2ywekz

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incognito

an anecdotal walk around my neighborhood:

MLS®: V690490

-dropped $40k after two weeks on market

MLS®: V675745

-on market since last summer

MLS®: V689607

-one of 10 listings, in 12 unit duplex complex – on sale since fall

MLS®: V689070

-on market most of last year – relisted this year for approximately same price

one street has 6 houses for sale and three houses being built

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Michael Randallbard

click on silver bars list for SLV bar number list. This is the biggest pdf file you will ever see

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Michael Randallbard

I like this the best….go Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays and ask for Jim

Western Coins & Stamp Ltd – 604-278-3235

2-6380 No. 3 Road , Richmond , BC V6Y 2B3

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Anonymous

Comment by Domus 2008-03-03 21:40:28 Hey Randallbard, "what is the best way to buy silver in Canada? Is there a CAD$ ETF (or fund) or do you buy SLV in the US?" For physical silver the best would be to hold it yourself perferably the 1000oz Engelhard of Johnson Matthey bars but definately not in certificate form as that is a piece of paper and institutes such as the Bank of Nova Scotia who sell you such products don't charge insurance or storage fee when they sell you that certificate. Hence they probably don't even have the physical to back up your certificate as they have sold it short or else they would charge you those fees when they sell you the certificates. SLV's problem is in its custodial arrangements. The silver is unallocated and pooled thus you don't actually… Read more »

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Domus

Hey Randallbard,

what is the best way to buy silver in Canada? Is there a CAD$ ETF (or fund) or do you buy SLV in the US?

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evergreen

I was basing it on a random stat I remembered from first or second year Economics class, that housing had gone up at a ratio of 3 to 1 versus income since 1970

bdk, good to read your post and get a scientific ratio for housing versus income, (3:1). Do you know if this ratio has changed since then? What do you think might be a sensible ratio now so that we can compute an adjusted real price for housing and get an idea when it's safe to buy?

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mk-kids

ROFLMAO jesse! Thanks for that!

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sheeplessinvancouver

"Hate to rip the ladder out from under yor feet, but rather than trying to gauge the market from what your 2 buddies are doing/saying/seeing, why not tune into the stats from FVREB to discover that sales this January were down 4%, and listings were up 18%." "For a more recent indication, paulb’s blog tells us that North Van inventory jumped 31%, and West Van listings jumped 35% during the first 2 months this year." The observations I've made have come from walking around the neighbourhood and comparing what I'm seeing to the past. Maybe it's the calm before the storm. I'm not friends with these people, but curious enough about the real estate market to ask questions. Friends who were trying to make money from real estate sold last year. And I personally haven't any worries. I'd like to… Read more »

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blueskies

Was it primary or secondary efflorescence?

it was tit-uary efflorescence complete with pasties 🙂

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Drachen

I know what it is jesse, that's why I asked if it was primary or secondary. Primary means essentially nothing, secondary would be a sign of water intrusion.

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jesse

Drachen: Wikipedia article on Efflorescence

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Joe just Joe

I would stay away from anything associated with Chandler, but what you're seeing is most likely just mortar mixed extremely rich, it will produce what you are describing, they use an extra rich mixture as it's safer then not being rich enough, they problem dissappears as it leeches out, takes about a year. That being said there could be other problems with that project.

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franko

""Some anecdotal information about what ordinary people seem to be doing/saying/seeing""

sheeplessin vancouver,

Hate to rip the ladder out from under yor feet, but rather than trying to gauge the market from what your 2 buddies are doing/saying/seeing, why not tune into the stats from FVREB to discover that sales this January were down 4%, and listings were up 18%.

For a more recent indication, paulb's blog tells us that North Van inventory jumped 31%, and West Van listings jumped 35% during the first 2 months this year.

Maybe it's time to wake up, No?

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aetakeo

Jesse, you cracked me up.

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