Comments on: Vancouver sales drop for second month

By: mathamatical

mathamatical — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 20:09:43 +0000

“If you think real estate is different from every other asset, and that this boom is never-ending, you must be from Vancouver.” That was awesome. While I was reading the article I didn't expect to see that but then "boom" there it was. A wake up call to the people in Vancouver.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Ebi

Ebi — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 21:02:10 +0000

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Van TO Van

Van TO Van — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 16:45:31 +0000

How about Garth Turner's response to some RE talking head's comments on his book: Hey, nice review for a guy who has not read my book! Maybe I can buy a house from John that he has never bothered looking at. However, I am flattered he's this insecure. I must be on to something. One sharp dude.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: scullboy

scullboy — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 16:40:10 +0000

COndohype and co: That quote's funny because it is oh, so true.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: depresso

depresso — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 14:58:27 +0000

Your tax dollars at work: TransLink looking at real-estate revenues

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: condohype

condohype — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 06:59:22 +0000

"If you think real estate is different from every other asset, and that this boom is never-ending, you must be from Vancouver." Puhlaya, I second your call on Garth Turner's quote. It's beyond hilarious.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 04:31:36 +0000

"Looks priced pretty well.....Unfortunately for my clients it’s a bit beyond there reach" Will, That's why this bull run cannot last forever.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: -A-

-A- — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 04:26:30 +0000

"Is it so hard to believe that the number of sales fall while prices remain steady or even may increase (as nearly every analyst, including the fairly conservative credit unions, have forecast)? " Will: Every analyst who is paid by your industry, and as for the credit unions, they could possibly get wiped out completely by the bursting of the bubble, as they are heavily exposed to the mortgage market. And as a realtor you must have some idea just how fake most of the supporting documentation for the loan qualification is. When the bubble bursts, the credit unions will be holing on to assets not worth 50 cents on the dollar. A few will go broke, and no analyst who works for the industry will want to be the first to call the bust.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Will

Will — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 03:26:43 +0000

Anonymous - That's a cute home there on 31st. Looks priced pretty well, too. Pretty sure it will find a buyer soon enough (only been on the market half the time the average house sells and this is priced more than that). Unfortunately for my clients it's a bit beyond there reach.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: ex-vancouverite

ex-vancouverite — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 02:26:36 +0000

Garth Turner is a real pistol -- from the interview... Sue W: We might never be able to sell, except to a greater fool? Never Sell? Please Mr. Turner, could you please provide a few examples of some properties which have NEVER sold. Garth Turner: Did I say that? Think not. As with stocks and mutual funds, there's always a buyer for real estate, at a current market value. For example, a share of Bear Stearns was worth $170 last year and $30 last week. On Sunday it sold for $2. If you think real estate is different from every other asset, and that this boom is never-ending, you must be from Vancouver. Gotta love it:)

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: jesse

jesse — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 23:10:50 +0000

"Most have two and a large percent have three… sad. When they do find one they are in competition." This is the fallout from densification. If you want a large lot without 1-2 suites sharing it with you, you need to pay a premium. Make no mistake: suites are there only to help with the mortgage and on rare occasions house the mother-in-law. Both usually depress the property's appeal.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: jesse

jesse — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 22:55:50 +0000

That said, some areas have, over the past few decades, shown different rates of appreciation. This of course does not rule out price drops in the area with greater appreciation. The 3 significant downturns since '80 have resulted in price drops, sometimes significant, in every area.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: jesse

jesse — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 22:45:56 +0000

“The plain fact is that the ‘good’ parts of Vancouver have gone down just as much in % terms in bear markets as other areas. Every time.”

Bingo. This was pointed out by VHB about 1-2 years ago. “Good” areas being immune to price drops is IMO the most widespread myth out there.

I think what perpetuates this myth is the upper-middle crust taking pride in being financially superior. Not pleasant conversation at dinner parties to claim otherwise. Trust me.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Mold City

Mold City — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 22:10:48 +0000

…A nearby border
…Farms?
(Am I missing anything?)

Sure Drachen, What about our very own shanty-town like LA!
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....2&t=42

(reminds me of the tent city we had in Vancouver a few years ago)

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 21:37:51 +0000

Will,
there is a 2,800 sq ft house at 4034 W.31st Avenue for $1.399.
It has just one kitchen and has been for sale for a few weeks now. There were several agents and buyers at the open house but it hasn’t sold in the two weeks since then.
A car salesman tried to convince me that buying a car in Vancouver made more sense than saving $10,000 by driving to the U.S. for a day….

The lesson here is to do your own research and stop drinking the kool aid that commission sales people (AKA REALTORS) earn by selling, they just want the commission and then they’re gone so why do they care what happens?

If they can’t see a crash coming then they are either deceiving you or too ignorant to be trusted to make any decisions.

Realtor “What? There was no crash in 1981! Never has and never will, it’s different here….. What’s this? You think rich people would rather move to California, Mexico, Costa Rica?
No no no, Vancouver is where every rich person wants to move from the day they are born… yes it’s true, it’s in the bible “though shall move to Vancouver when though becomes rich… the olympics!the olympics!”

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: puhlaya

puhlaya — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 20:44:34 +0000

In his Globe & Mail Q&A, Garth Turner said... "If you think real estate is different from every other asset, and that this boom is never-ending, you must be from Vancouver." That made me really laugh.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: patriotz

patriotz — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 20:04:42 +0000

Prices are usually pretty firm for SFH in good neighborhoods. Except when they're not. The plain fact is that the "good" parts of Vancouver have gone down just as much in % terms in bear markets as other areas. Every time. There were actual properties in West Side Vancouver that sold after the 81-84 crash for 50% of what they sold for at the top in 1981.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: richard

richard — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 19:37:09 +0000

"They get passed up, too." but... doesn't that mean you're running out of (desperate) buyers?... i mean, if you still had plenty of those, then even the dogs would get snapped up, right?

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Drachen

Drachen — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 19:27:02 +0000

From Re-Diculous’s linked story.

“every real estate bubble in history has burst, and there’s no reason to think it will be different this time.”

Normally when someone says something so blatantly simplistic I’d have a rejoinder like “Well thank YOU captain obvious!”

However in this case it seems that only about 1% of Vancouverites actually see it as an obvious truth. Certainly most people I talk to think that there’s EVERY reason to think it’s different this time (and there’s enough of those whackos who filter through here too).

Why is it different?

Well, if you ask a Bull they’ll tell you that in the entire history of Real Estate record keeping there has never been a city with;

Mountains
The Olympics
Water
A nearby border (what is THAT about?)
Farms?

(Am I missing anything?)

They also for some reason believe in certain mythical properties in Vancouver.

Invulnerable economy
Billionaires/Millionaires from all over the world flocking to our city (but only for investment purposes)
A world class _________ (fill in the blank it doesn’t matter what you put there, we don’t really have world class anything for these purposes)

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Asun

Asun — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 19:24:24 +0000

Re-diculous, what do you mean? Are you saying the Housing boom won't last forever? But but.. real estate boom won't bust. David Lereah said so.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Re-diculous

Re-diculous — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 18:42:28 +0000

Here’s the link to Garth Turner’s Live Chat session today on “How long will the Housing boom last?”.

Some interesting commentary:

http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....iness/home

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Will

Will — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:47:57 +0000

Is it so hard to believe that the number of sales fall while prices remain steady or even may increase (as nearly every analyst, including the fairly conservative credit unions, have forecast)? Take a look at the stock out there. I have clients with over $1mil to spend and they cannot find a large enough place with a good floorplan and only one kitchen. Go ahead, jump on that. We cannot find a decent home with only one kitchen. Most have two and a large percent have three... sad. When they do find one they are in competition. My post that "Anonymous" pointed to reflects that. Homes that are selling are doing so in 32 days. Homes that are still available are for an average more than double that. They simply are not selling (and maybe never will). We are at a price point where if you don't offer an attractive home no one will take it, no matter the price. But if you do have a great home people will jump all over it. Hence sales down, prices flat to up. Oh, and condos? Better look good. Not plain jane vanilla with nothing to note or differentiate you from the others. They get passed up, too.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Rock

Rock — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:05:44 +0000

It's despicable how the biased media and industry "experts" continue to try to fuel bullish sentiment. As someone who works in the investment industry, this very much reminds me of how Analysts rate stocks. When it is a sell, you should think about buying (or staying away, depending on how long it's been a "sell:). When it is a buy, you should hold. When it is a hold, you should sell. They are only in it for themselves....

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: bdk

bdk — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:02:46 +0000

Sonika is his left hand "I am kind of busy these days but may be till may or june I will get my hand on it."

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 16:31:40 +0000

Hey krrish2, who the heck is this Sonika you keep referring to? Is it one of the voices inside your head?

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)