Canada’s risky new mortgages
Thanks to Condohype for sending in the link to this story in todays Vancouver Sun: mortgages move into uncharted waters. This is a similar article to the one linked to last week about over-stretched buyers fueling the real estate boom, but refers to a Scotiabank report released yesterday focusing on the risks created by relatively new 40 year mortgage terms. According to the report, longer term mortgages now account for a full two-thirds of all mortgage applications.
In the near term, their introduction — which began in 2006 when Ottawa “unshackled” the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation from the traditional 25-year mortgage — will help stabilize a softening Canadian housing market as it draws in a new group of buyers.
Longer term, however, nobody knows what the effect will be, Holt said.
If, for instance, buyers as a group tend to pay back the debt at an accelerated pace, it will increase the risk for the originators of the mortgages and buyers of mortgage-backed securities into which they are folded.
On the other hand, the report says, “future shock risk is being intensified,” in the event that a large portion of new buyers move into such leveraged products and suddenly face a shock to interest rates or wage growth.
Now, if faced with sudden difficulties, the holder of a 25-year mortgage can move into a 40-year, but it’s unclear what would happen if the 40 becomes the norm and economic difficulties arise.
I’m not sure why it’s so ‘unclear’ what would happen if the majority of buyers have no adjustment room in their mortgages, pay a majority of their income to cover loan interest and ‘economic difficulties’ arise. I don’t need a crystal ball to foresee that such a situation would be ‘problematic’. Unfortunately as we’ve seen in the USA, ‘economic difficulties’ can simply be a drop-off of buyers at over-inflated prices. Prices in the US started dropping long before problems with sub-prime mortgages and recession fears started looming.
I also find it strange that all these new products were introduced in the midst of a boom rather than when the housing market needed ’saving’ from a collapse. Seems a bit like using up your nitrous on the drive to the racetrack. This article also touches on the way these new mortgage products encourage speculation:
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.Equally significant is the impact changes to the mortgage industry may have on the condo market, Holt said.
Starting last year, Ottawa changed the rules on insured-investor mortgages, allowing buyers to acquire an insured mortgage on a property other than a principal residence.
Holt said he estimates one in four condo buyers is a speculator looking to profit from property price gains and, he forecasts, “This is going to intensify influences of investor sentiment, particularly the condo market over the next few years.
“You’ll see more speculative activity in the market at a time when there’s already a fair amount.”
This can sharpen market downturns, as appears to be the case in Calgary, when prices drop and speculators rush to unload properties.
April 29th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
April 29th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
For a prelude of the Vancouver market, check out what’s happening down south on mohicans latest graph.
April 29th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
We’ve come a long way… 0% and 40 yrs has to be the end.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
No funny money lending is going to save us from the massacre that is just getting started. It would have been better if the banks and CMHC kept some powder dry for the tough times ahead but their inability to plan prudently will make the bust bigger than it could have been.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
To my big surprise, just a year or so later, my family was severely bugged by mortgage brokers and financial advisers recommending us to get a fatter mortgage. And even our income did not change much, we were offered 400+k mortgage. I now feel lucky I did not go for it.
These times (pre-2001) will be back…
April 29th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
“If, for instance, buyers as a group tend to pay back the debt at an accelerated pace, it will increase the risk for the originators of the mortgages and buyers of mortgage-backed securities into which they are folded.”
Shouldn’t they already have a pretty good idea how prepayments impact these securities? We have likely seen the peak of early payments and many of these early payments that are reducing the returns of the poor banks will turn into something else that’s worse. Why do you think banks put restrictions and penalties on prepayments during the term?
April 29th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
If you took out a $300k loan at %6 for the old standard 25 year term you would have monthly payments of $1932.90
Introduce the option of a 40 year term and you get a big drop in your monthly payment which is now $1650.54
Ok, now lets suppose the market stumbles, we run into economic problems and people aren’t buying overpriced condos. Can we repeat the boost that introducing 40 year terms gave us? Not really. Lets say we go from a 40 year term to a 60 year term - your monthly payment is $1542.53. Lets pump it up to 100 years and pass that debt on to your kids: Monthly payment would be $1503.78.
In other words, moving from 25 year term to 40 years ’saves’ you almost $300 a month (nevermind all that extra interest you’ll pay over the extra years, lets just look at the monthly payment). But moving from a 40 year term to a ONE HUNDRED YEAR LOAN saves you less than $150.
April 29th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
April 29th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
I assume its an efficient floor plan.
April 29th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
April 29th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
April 29th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
April 29th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
April 29th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
April 29th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
I laughed so hard I thought you were messing with my mind! Never mind the rest of it.
April 29th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
At first the news reported that it might be a grow-up, then the expert RCMP schmo came on to say that they were sure someone was stealing copper pipe. These thieves broke into the house and stole the six feet of 1/2″ Cu pipe between the stove and inlet because everything else in the house wouldn’t be easier to steal with less risk of leaking gas into the house.
Oh did I mention it’s been for sale for 9 months, and it was a bunch of 30 something guys who bought it for 700k and are trying to flip 2 years late for 970K.
Anybody want to do the math on what it costs to finance 700k for 2 years with no income?
Just seemed so suspicious to me…
April 29th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
“Housing markets are becoming more balanced and price gains are becoming more modest as a result,” said chief economist Gregory Klump. “This trend is forecast to continue, as rising mortgage carrying costs and property taxes erode affordability.”
Yeah, and pigs do fly out of your ass Gregory, taxes and intereste rates are eroding affordability, not the bubbble prices.
http://tinyurl.com/5em6t4
April 29th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Title: “Canadian Q1 home sales drop 6.8%”
Statistics at bottom (for March 08 vs. 07) give:
CANADA (actual) - 19.1%
CANADA (seasonally adjusted) - 12.5% - (what I thought it was March vs. March?) anyway, looks like its accelerating on the downside…..
April 29th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
——————————–
Dear Vancouver Sun,
A very interesting piece with some strong data points but I find it remarkable that you rely so heavily on the opinion of realtors or their related associations. For example, you appear to conclude that it is an outright myth that “Real estate prices in Greater
Vancouver can’t keep going up, they’re too high already.” The nonsensical realtor’s comment “if the numbers make sense to buy, and you can look out to the downside, buy” aside, you make the excellent point that almost 80% of the average person’s income would be needed to afford the average home. As this is pre-tax earnings, it means that most Vancouver residents could simply not afford to buy their home at today’s prices. But you should have talked about cap rates, which today are often below the risk-free rate of return.
Why does a risky asset yield less than a risk-free asset? Because a) people expect a capital gain, b) most investors don’t bother looking at cap rates, the most basic valuation metric in this asset class. Think of tech stock buyers in 1999 and early 2000. They
bought simply because they expected a capital gain, not because the fundamentals supported the price paid. And no, just because there was demand for Nortel at $124 did not mean it was actually worth that much. Yet, at $124, was it hitherto possible that it would go much higher? Sure it was. It’s just that it didn’t.
Do you realize how horrifically wrong the perma-bull former chief economist of the U.S.-based National Association of Realtors David Lereah was until he was finally fired a year ago? In 2005, he wrote the book “Are You Missing the Real Estate
Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through The End of The Decade”, and in 2006 retitled it to “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust”. If you think he was merely a bit unlucky, know that in June 2000, he wrote “The Rules for Growing Rich: Making Money in the New Information Economy”.
It may indeed be that GVRD home prices will continue to rise but, if the U.S. situation is any metric, realtors and their chief economists will not temper their
enthusiasm until well after prices have turned down.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
QoQ stats seem a bit BS to me. Faint whiff of desperation?
April 29th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
“There is no sign of a bottom”
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet … iness/home
April 29th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Again! opps what did you start last year? man oh man sky is falling since 2005 and beyond wha wha.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
A,you don’t have to act like a son of bitch!
April 29th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
oho- who the fuck is GARTH TURNER?Isn’t he own a house mada fucka,i am just wondering if he was a greater fool than or now? what a domestic terrorist he is damn fucking politician, another idiot like jeff from toronto oho are all people from toronto are pissed off personality like jeff,sCull boy etc,etc.they need a sort of break.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
I got an interest-only floating rate in 1982 (that’s infinite amortization folks). One of the best financial decisions I ever made.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
April 29th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= … refer=home
Of course our Goldman Sachs trained central bank governor Mr. Carney has already shown his cards that he just follows the fed…so expect more interesting times ahead.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:29 am
But if they keep cutting consumers are going to get hit in the gas tank.
No way out.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:20 am
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/stor … sFormTitle
April 30th, 2008 at 6:28 am
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet … iness/home
…wait a second, just 3 months ago we were not going to be effected at all….we were “De-coupled”. Good thing all those problems are back east
April 30th, 2008 at 7:01 am
didn’t he tell you in advance last week?why do you act like “A”?
April 30th, 2008 at 7:17 am
I just posted a comment on that Sun article. It will appear “after it has been approved by an editor”. We’ll see…
April 30th, 2008 at 7:24 am
April 30th, 2008 at 7:33 am
Well, I kept it clean late last night when I saw the slate was completely clear. What do you know? My post hadn’t been approved seven hours later…
April 30th, 2008 at 7:57 am
That realtor selling units in Q2, were they $139k like the studios in Q3?
400 sf in Whalley… a fate worse than death. Sadly anything in the 100s is tempting for young people.
On a totally unrelated note, is there a website out there discussing building quality? I’m very interested in an apartment downtown when prices return to reality, but I’d like to know how they are built. There are so many out there, I’m sure some are quality, some are crap.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:07 am
If the Sun had intentionally set out to prop up a market showing signs of weakness, it could not have done much better than “Myths and Realities”, or its “advertorial” on real estate earlier last week.
In February, March and April, inventory has spiked to levels not seen at this time of year for some number of years, now at 15,000 in the GVRD. Sales are declining, price increases are abating, sales to listing ratios are significantly lower than the norm for spring and there are some lower mainland communities with eight months of inventory or more. Your paper has reported that already, 50% or more of downtown/false creek condos and townhouses are owned by investors. Despite this, and as you have also reported, the GVRD is constructing an all time record number of new units. This, against a backdrop of relatively anemic population growth; a surprise to most, but the statistics are readily available to you.
To your credit, you did show a chart of GVRD prices over time. It clearly shows that we are in unprecedented territory in both length of time for a run up in prices and the degree to which they have run up. It also shows at least four periods in the past where high peaks have been followed by sharp declines. At no time does it show a high peak followed by a plateau or a gradual slope, as some pundits now predict. Local economists and vested real estate interests rely upon our lack of subprime mortgages as one key reason why we will avoid a correction, despite our well documented history of corrections, the average being 28%. What these folks fail to understand or are unprepared to articulate, is that the root cause of the debacle down south was that prices rose too high too fast and eventually crashed under their own weight. There wouldn’t be a subprime problem if prices had continued to increase. Moreover, the markets hardest hit in the US are those characterized by rampart speculation and over-building, just like here.
Did anyone in your editorial staff compare income growth and rental rate growth to price increases? Had it, an enormous disconnect between prices, incomes and rental rates would have been obvious, as would the utter lack of sustainability of current conditions, which more than one impartial economist has repeatedly pointed out. Simple economics suggests that we are due for another correction and perhaps a very significant one. While as your paper derives much advertising revenue from the real estate industry, and most of the talking heads you rely upon have a vested interest in keeping this bubble inflated, some decidedly less cheery dots exist for those who care to observe them. One wonders why an organization presumably dedicated to impartial reporting routinely fails to connect them.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:19 am
April 30th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Actually, that’s ALWAYS the way these things occur.
Consider: Margin accounts are always promoted near the top of stock booms (when they are most dangerous!), and then retracted near bottoms (when they would be most useful to ‘prudent speculators’).
These changes respond only to the recent past and don’t anticipate future developments.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:46 am
.
Nice letter JR.
I would’nt worry about approval or display of letters by the Sun, as long as they get the message.
My letter (following the cancellation of my subscription) was not only not published,it was laced with enough profanities to warrant a possible visit from the RCMP….They’l never take me alive!
Anyway, I noticed on the condohype link that (since yesterday afternoon) only a slect few letters have survived the scrutiny of the editors for public display.
Don’t let that discourage you!
GIVE’EM HELL!
April 30th, 2008 at 8:56 am
April 30th, 2008 at 9:05 am
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/04/3 … onomy.html
Doesn’t this go against the Sun article and others who say Canada has “solid fundamentals” and isn’t largely affected by the U.S. downturn?
Also, if we’ve contracted, how bad is the U.S. economy? It must REALLY be tanking for us to contract, but I hear little of that…
April 30th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Tell him that all of us here @vancouvercondo.info look forward to his reply.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:13 am
The sun issue ask for the response regarding “myth or reality”not to post your garbage like response because that does not relate your response to their question they have in the list,stop wasting your time.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:18 am
The Sun’s article was written for society’s lowest common denominator (bottom of the food chain). I see that it resonated (made sense) to you. How’s the view from down there?
April 30th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Mine didn’t either. I posted one in this new expunged second round, early this morning, but mine didn’t make the cut. Though crabman’s did. They appear to be picking and choosing now.
They also have articles stating that a) sales are off 22% in BC (with the usual ‘return to balance’ blather from the usual suspects) and b) BC less optimistic on economy. Yet the editorial line won’t acknowledge any sort of downside risk to real estate. How hard are these dots to put together?
Isn’t there some sort of journalism ombudsman out there?
April 30th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Censorship, alive & well at the Vancouver Sun.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:36 am
2008-04-30 09:05:17
Also, if we’ve contracted, how bad is the U.S. economy? It must REALLY be tanking for us to contract, but I hear little of that…
*******************
Try reading a little more widely. Mish’s Economic Analysis Blog (google it) is a good place to start, or even Bloomberg.com.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:37 am
I’m fully anticipating severe quality problems down the road - mostly as a result of the great demand for construction labor compounded with high profit margin standards.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:38 am
April 30th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Once the old 40 year ammortization trick runs it course, nothing really left in the gun barrel to save the market. Listings to hit 16,000 by June 08?? I think so.
Keep your eye on that US 10 year treasury note, long term interest rates are moving higher.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:04 am
2008/04/reader-comments-on-15-myths-story-missing.html
April 30th, 2008 at 11:09 am
CMHC required 15% down. Also, they required proof of the down payment, as in copies of bank books, GIC’s, etc. They did not allow down payments from parents or other family memebers to count.
25 year amortizations were the maximum you could get.
GDSR was 30% and TDSR was 40%. We used your maximum potential credit card payments, loan payments, leases, utilities, taxes, insurance, etc, etc in calculating both of these ratios.
How times have changed.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:09 am
“One plain, unglamorous fact is that affordability in Vancouver is at an all time low. The odds of continuing price increases in light of this fact are pretty slim. The odds of a major correction, however, are significant.”
“bats are sitting on every single branch of the tree what will happen to this city?”
Who can say where the road goes,
Where the day flows?
Only time…
And who can say if your love grows,
As your heart chose?
Only time…
http://youtube.com/watch?v=9VAnQ6PJpzs
Vancouver,BC BPE
April 30th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Now that every crackhead in Surrey has been reminded of the bounty that lies within empty houses, “exploding real estate” will take on a whole different meaning.
If they had insurance, I bet they didn’t admit it was vacant. Therefore, bye-bye to the claim.
April 30th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
April 30th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
“As odd as it might seem, Canada could end up feeling a worse downdraft from the housing-led U.S. slump than the United States itself.”
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=483017
http://tinyurl.com/3jsofn
April 30th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
April 30th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
If financial ruin ensues due to purchasing at the height of a boom you have done that to yourself. But what do I know? I’m not smart enough to buy at the peak of a boom. In fact I’m stoopid enough to have sold a fully paid off townhouse last August. I didn’t cause the boom, and won’t cause a crash. I just maneuver the tumultuous waters as best I can. I rent for now, and will buy again, when it makes sense.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
There’s no way there could be two people on this blog who’re that stupid and write in such a disheveled, incoherent,brain dead manner.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
satv lives …..just barely
April 30th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
April 30th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
April 30th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
I guess the financial ruin of others could be good if you were looking for used stuff, but I don’t need any more ’stuff’ right now.