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April 30th, 2008 at 10:58 am
That’s a sure sign of a market top when the Sun publishes it as a feature article. If Mish says Vancouver and Canadian real estate is going to follow the downward trend of the U.S., it is time to sell, sell!
Once the old 40 year ammortization trick runs it course, nothing really left in the gun barrel to save the market. Listings to hit 16,000 by June 08?? I think so.
Keep your eye on that US 10 year treasury note, long term interest rates are moving higher.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Pope, I’d start a new post dedicated to the Sun’s recent censorship. At least it will show up on Google searches and be a part of public record instead of buried OT in the comments.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:37 am
“There are so many out there, I’m sure some are quality, some are crap.”
I’m fully anticipating severe quality problems down the road – mostly as a result of the great demand for construction labor compounded with high profit margin standards.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Comment by anonymous coward
2008-04-30 09:05:17
Also, if we’ve contracted, how bad is the U.S. economy? It must REALLY be tanking for us to contract, but I hear little of that…
*******************
Try reading a little more widely. Mish’s Economic Analysis Blog (google it) is a good place to start, or even Bloomberg.com.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Great letter JR! I read the Sun comments before they were deleted, there were some great ones in there.
Censorship, alive & well at the Vancouver Sun.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:31 am
“mine isn’t the only contrary opinion to not show up in the comment section.”
Mine didn’t either. I posted one in this new expunged second round, early this morning, but mine didn’t make the cut. Though crabman’s did. They appear to be picking and choosing now.
They also have articles stating that a) sales are off 22% in BC (with the usual ‘return to balance’ blather from the usual suspects) and b) BC less optimistic on economy. Yet the editorial line won’t acknowledge any sort of downside risk to real estate. How hard are these dots to put together?
Isn’t there some sort of journalism ombudsman out there?
April 30th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Anonymous
The Sun’s article was written for society’s lowest common denominator (bottom of the food chain). I see that it resonated (made sense) to you. How’s the view from down there?
April 30th, 2008 at 10:13 am
JR,
The sun issue ask for the response regarding “myth or reality”not to post your garbage like response because that does not relate your response to their question they have in the list,stop wasting your time.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:32 am
JR: you should email that letter directly to Derrick Penner (depenner@png.canwest.com).
Tell him that all of us here @vancouvercondo.info look forward to his reply.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:05 am
This may not be a little off topic, but I’m confused about something. According to this CBC article, our economy actually contracted in February :
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....onomy.html
Doesn’t this go against the Sun article and others who say Canada has “solid fundamentals” and isn’t largely affected by the U.S. downturn?
Also, if we’ve contracted, how bad is the U.S. economy? It must REALLY be tanking for us to contract, but I hear little of that…
April 30th, 2008 at 8:56 am
I also submitted a comment on that sun story many hours ago (after they removed most of the comments). It was calm and polite and simply referred to one remaining comment that the article simply covered the ‘facts’ and was ‘uncontroversial’. Funny how it still seems like they only have two comments on that story, Either it really is uncontroversial, or mine isn’t the only contrary opinion to not show up in the comment section.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:46 am
.
.
Nice letter JR.
I would’nt worry about approval or display of letters by the Sun, as long as they get the message.
My letter (following the cancellation of my subscription) was not only not published,it was laced with enough profanities to warrant a possible visit from the RCMP….They’l never take me alive!
Anyway, I noticed on the condohype link that (since yesterday afternoon) only a slect few letters have survived the scrutiny of the editors for public display.
Don’t let that discourage you!
GIVE’EM HELL!
April 30th, 2008 at 8:29 am
regarding: “I also find it strange that all these new products were introduced in the midst of a boom rather than when the housing market needed ’saving’ from a collapse.”
Actually, that’s ALWAYS the way these things occur.
Consider: Margin accounts are always promoted near the top of stock booms (when they are most dangerous!), and then retracted near bottoms (when they would be most useful to ‘prudent speculators’).
These changes respond only to the recent past and don’t anticipate future developments.
Aggressive Lending In Canada - “My family was severely bugged by mortgage brokers recommending us to get a fatter mortgage.” « Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 8:19 am
[...] lending has fueled the price run-ups in Vancouver RE. This relevant anecdote comes from dimon at Vancouver Condo Info 2008-04-29 15:04:35 [...]
April 30th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Being as I don’t expect my letter re: Myths to be approved, I’m posting it here. Forgive the length.
If the Sun had intentionally set out to prop up a market showing signs of weakness, it could not have done much better than “Myths and Realities”, or its “advertorial” on real estate earlier last week.
In February, March and April, inventory has spiked to levels not seen at this time of year for some number of years, now at 15,000 in the GVRD. Sales are declining, price increases are abating, sales to listing ratios are significantly lower than the norm for spring and there are some lower mainland communities with eight months of inventory or more. Your paper has reported that already, 50% or more of downtown/false creek condos and townhouses are owned by investors. Despite this, and as you have also reported, the GVRD is constructing an all time record number of new units. This, against a backdrop of relatively anemic population growth; a surprise to most, but the statistics are readily available to you.
To your credit, you did show a chart of GVRD prices over time. It clearly shows that we are in unprecedented territory in both length of time for a run up in prices and the degree to which they have run up. It also shows at least four periods in the past where high peaks have been followed by sharp declines. At no time does it show a high peak followed by a plateau or a gradual slope, as some pundits now predict. Local economists and vested real estate interests rely upon our lack of subprime mortgages as one key reason why we will avoid a correction, despite our well documented history of corrections, the average being 28%. What these folks fail to understand or are unprepared to articulate, is that the root cause of the debacle down south was that prices rose too high too fast and eventually crashed under their own weight. There wouldn’t be a subprime problem if prices had continued to increase. Moreover, the markets hardest hit in the US are those characterized by rampart speculation and over-building, just like here.
Did anyone in your editorial staff compare income growth and rental rate growth to price increases? Had it, an enormous disconnect between prices, incomes and rental rates would have been obvious, as would the utter lack of sustainability of current conditions, which more than one impartial economist has repeatedly pointed out. Simple economics suggests that we are due for another correction and perhaps a very significant one. While as your paper derives much advertising revenue from the real estate industry, and most of the talking heads you rely upon have a vested interest in keeping this bubble inflated, some decidedly less cheery dots exist for those who care to observe them. One wonders why an organization presumably dedicated to impartial reporting routinely fails to connect them.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Regarding Quattro 3, if the developer thinks like every other chump in this town, why aren’t those studios in Q3 selling for more, like $159k?
That realtor selling units in Q2, were they $139k like the studios in Q3?
400 sf in Whalley… a fate worse than death. Sadly anything in the 100s is tempting for young people.
On a totally unrelated note, is there a website out there discussing building quality? I’m very interested in an apartment downtown when prices return to reality, but I’d like to know how they are built. There are so many out there, I’m sure some are quality, some are crap.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:33 am
“I sugguest that we collectively bombard the Sun with our opinions on that piece of crap. Here’s the link to do so – but keep it clean, otherwise they won’t post it.”
Well, I kept it clean late last night when I saw the slate was completely clear. What do you know? My post hadn’t been approved seven hours later…
April 30th, 2008 at 7:24 am
I mis-read that as “after it has been removed by an editor”
April 30th, 2008 at 7:17 am
Re-diculous,
I just posted a comment on that Sun article. It will appear “after it has been approved by an editor”. We’ll see…
April 30th, 2008 at 7:01 am
“so expect more interesting times ahead.”
didn’t he tell you in advance last week?why do you act like “A”?
April 30th, 2008 at 6:28 am
“Canadian Ecoonomy rattled”
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....iness/home
…wait a second, just 3 months ago we were not going to be effected at all….we were “De-coupled”. Good thing all those problems are back east
April 30th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Noticed this morning that comments to the Vancouver Sun 15 myth’s article, which last night totalled about 30 articles, 90% negative, have been reduced to currently 2 articles. How convenient of them to simply delete them – embarassment perhaps? I sugguest that we collectively bombard the Sun with our opinions on that piece of crap. Here’s the link to do so – but keep it clean, otherwise they won’t post it
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....sFormTitle
April 30th, 2008 at 12:29 am
I noticed the article indicates that the fed wants to stop cutting rates but they are being jammed by consumers in the tank.
But if they keep cutting consumers are going to get hit in the gas tank.
No way out.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Re-diculous, I noticed the article indicates that the fed wants to stop cutting rates but they are being jammed by consumers in the tank. But there is more. Check out today’s article on bloomberg which says the banks in the US need more even more help:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
Of course our Goldman Sachs trained central bank governor Mr. Carney has already shown his cards that he just follows the fed…so expect more interesting times ahead.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Oh I should add it wasn’t high ratio. For sure that kind of thing wasn’t insurable back then.
April 29th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
What was getting a mortgage like in 1980? Was 25 years an option?
I got an interest-only floating rate in 1982 (that’s infinite amortization folks). One of the best financial decisions I ever made.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
.” The nonsensical realtor’s comment “
oho- who the fuck is GARTH TURNER?Isn’t he own a house mada fucka,i am just wondering if he was a greater fool than or now? what a domestic terrorist he is damn fucking politician, another idiot like jeff from toronto oho are all people from toronto are pissed off personality like jeff,sCull boy etc,etc.they need a sort of break.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
“Yeah, and pigs do fly out of your ass Gregory, taxes and intereste rates are eroding affordability, not the bubbble prices”.
A,you don’t have to act like a son of bitch!
April 29th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
“No funny money lending is going to save us from the massacre that is just getting started”
Again! opps what did you start last year? man oh man sky is falling since 2005 and beyond wha wha.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
How about this for a headline:
“There is no sign of a bottom”
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....iness/home
April 29th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Re-diculous, I noticed that too. Maybe that’s annualized or something. Or maybe it’s seasonally-adjusted QoQ?
QoQ stats seem a bit BS to me. Faint whiff of desperation?
April 29th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Below is a letter posted on the Greater Fool site in response to the 15 RE myth’s piece of crap the Sun posted – I thougt it was pretty good. Apologies for the length:
——————————–
Dear Vancouver Sun,
A very interesting piece with some strong data points but I find it remarkable that you rely so heavily on the opinion of realtors or their related associations. For example, you appear to conclude that it is an outright myth that “Real estate prices in Greater
Vancouver can’t keep going up, they’re too high already.” The nonsensical realtor’s comment “if the numbers make sense to buy, and you can look out to the downside, buy” aside, you make the excellent point that almost 80% of the average person’s income would be needed to afford the average home. As this is pre-tax earnings, it means that most Vancouver residents could simply not afford to buy their home at today’s prices. But you should have talked about cap rates, which today are often below the risk-free rate of return.
Why does a risky asset yield less than a risk-free asset? Because a) people expect a capital gain, b) most investors don’t bother looking at cap rates, the most basic valuation metric in this asset class. Think of tech stock buyers in 1999 and early 2000. They
bought simply because they expected a capital gain, not because the fundamentals supported the price paid. And no, just because there was demand for Nortel at $124 did not mean it was actually worth that much. Yet, at $124, was it hitherto possible that it would go much higher? Sure it was. It’s just that it didn’t.
Do you realize how horrifically wrong the perma-bull former chief economist of the U.S.-based National Association of Realtors David Lereah was until he was finally fired a year ago? In 2005, he wrote the book “Are You Missing the Real Estate
Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through The End of The Decade”, and in 2006 retitled it to “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust”. If you think he was merely a bit unlucky, know that in June 2000, he wrote “The Rules for Growing Rich: Making Money in the New Information Economy”.
It may indeed be that GVRD home prices will continue to rise but, if the U.S. situation is any metric, realtors and their chief economists will not temper their
enthusiasm until well after prices have turned down.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Is it only me or did anyone else see something interesting from the article posted above?
Title: “Canadian Q1 home sales drop 6.8%”
Statistics at bottom (for March 08 vs. 07) give:
CANADA (actual) – 19.1%
CANADA (seasonally adjusted) – 12.5% – (what I thought it was March vs. March?) anyway, looks like its accelerating on the downside…..
April 29th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
As per link from Richard:
“Housing markets are becoming more balanced and price gains are becoming more modest as a result,” said chief economist Gregory Klump. “This trend is forecast to continue, as rising mortgage carrying costs and property taxes erode affordability.”
Yeah, and pigs do fly out of your ass Gregory, taxes and intereste rates are eroding affordability, not the bubbble prices.
http://tinyurl.com/5em6t4
April 29th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Anybody see the news report of the house that blew up in Surrey?
At first the news reported that it might be a grow-up, then the expert RCMP schmo came on to say that they were sure someone was stealing copper pipe. These thieves broke into the house and stole the six feet of 1/2″ Cu pipe between the stove and inlet because everything else in the house wouldn’t be easier to steal with less risk of leaking gas into the house.
Oh did I mention it’s been for sale for 9 months, and it was a bunch of 30 something guys who bought it for 700k and are trying to flip 2 years late for 970K.
Anybody want to do the math on what it costs to finance 700k for 2 years with no income?
Just seemed so suspicious to me…
April 29th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
“I assume its an efficient floor plan”
I laughed so hard I thought you were messing with my mind! Never mind the rest of it.
April 29th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
that last comment wasn’t richard. I don’t know how your name ended up in the Comment spot.
April 29th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
Good move frank, the province, sun, metro, 24, all BRUTAL.
April 29th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Canadian Q1 home sales drop 6.8%. BC is -22.4. hmmm…..
April 29th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Quattro is a shoebox near crack and whore streets in Whalley. A fantastic place to invest… after all there will always be crack and whores…
April 29th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
beatstreet: any floorplan you can cross in four steps is efficient.
April 29th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
“Realtor was listing 3 units in quattro phase 2 on april 14 417 sq ft for 175,000 each on craigslist.Today he has them listed for 149,000 each”
I assume its an efficient floor plan.
April 29th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Realtor was listing 3 units in quattro phase 2 on april 14 417 sq ft for 175,000 each on craigslist.Today he has them listed for 149,000 each, 26,000 drop in just over two weeks. You think he might be sweating a little right now? considering phase 3 is coming up in a week and the same floor plan will go for 139,000.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
If the goal of longer mortgage terms is to lower monthly payments and thereby increase ‘affordablity’ then it’s really dumb to have used up this option during a boom. I ran some numbers through the mortgage calculator over at bankrate.com and got the following results:
If you took out a $300k loan at %6 for the old standard 25 year term you would have monthly payments of $1932.90
Introduce the option of a 40 year term and you get a big drop in your monthly payment which is now $1650.54
Ok, now lets suppose the market stumbles, we run into economic problems and people aren’t buying overpriced condos. Can we repeat the boost that introducing 40 year terms gave us? Not really. Lets say we go from a 40 year term to a 60 year term – your monthly payment is $1542.53. Lets pump it up to 100 years and pass that debt on to your kids: Monthly payment would be $1503.78.
In other words, moving from 25 year term to 40 years ‘saves’ you almost $300 a month (nevermind all that extra interest you’ll pay over the extra years, lets just look at the monthly payment). But moving from a 40 year term to a ONE HUNDRED YEAR LOAN saves you less than $150.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Check out the Greater Fool post on “subprime” in Canada. (Quotes are there for a reason.)
“If, for instance, buyers as a group tend to pay back the debt at an accelerated pace, it will increase the risk for the originators of the mortgages and buyers of mortgage-backed securities into which they are folded.”
Shouldn’t they already have a pretty good idea how prepayments impact these securities? We have likely seen the peak of early payments and many of these early payments that are reducing the returns of the poor banks will turn into something else that’s worse. Why do you think banks put restrictions and penalties on prepayments during the term?
April 29th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
I’ve lived in Canada since 2001. When we started looking for a mortgage, the rules were quite strict. With our verified!!! dual income we could not get mortgage more than 200k. As first home buyers we needed at least 5% downpayment. Within this price range we could not find a suitable SFH, so we went for a townhome in decent area.
To my big surprise, just a year or so later, my family was severely bugged by mortgage brokers and financial advisers recommending us to get a fatter mortgage. And even our income did not change much, we were offered 400+k mortgage. I now feel lucky I did not go for it.
These times (pre-2001) will be back…
April 29th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
This summer is going to be an absolute blood bath for the Fraser Valley market. The numbers are absolutely grim right now and the month end is shaping up to be the worst in recent memory. Look for price declines this month and for the rest of the year.
No funny money lending is going to save us from the massacre that is just getting started. It would have been better if the banks and CMHC kept some powder dry for the tough times ahead but their inability to plan prudently will make the bust bigger than it could have been.
April 29th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
What was getting a mortgage like in 1980? Was 25 years an option? What about 5% down, or was it only 25% back then?
We’ve come a long way… 0% and 40 yrs has to be the end.
April 29th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
I cancelled my Sun subscription last week after that “15 myths” crap, but saw the same article in the NP.
For a prelude of the Vancouver market, check out what’s happening down south on mohicans latest graph.
April 29th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
This is going to turn out to be a disaster. The 40 year insured mortgage is poison in itself but insuring 40 year mortgages for investors is just diabolical.