East Van condo prices crashing?
I found this shocking bit of info over at Rob’s blog posted by Awum:
Here’s something I was wondering about. I heard anectdotally that Vancouver east side condos seem to be on a downhill slide as far as price goes. This morning I was reminded of http://www.landcor.com/market/housing_price_index.aspx to check it out, typed in Vancouver East, apartments, pushed refresh graph. Waited. Looked at the graph. Wow.
Other areas really don’t show so much weakness (I looked at a few) but Van East apartments looks like its in bust mode already. Looks like a 15% drop in HPI from peak. That’s a big deal.
Now before anyone accuses me of going all “Chicken Little” over this one piece of data, let me be clear about my point: The only reason for this drop in HPI that I can ascertain is plain old supply & demand. Too many properties for sale, not enough buyers with the required $$.
I have to admit I was very suprised to see that graph as well – I’ve always looked to the MLS Housing Price Index which doesn’t show any such correction underway. I tried to find information on the Landcor site on where they get their data and why it would vary so much from the MLSlink data and the found this page on their site which is heavy on buzzwords, but light on specifics:
The accuracy of Landcor™’s AVM is further enhanced by the quality of our data. We update our copy of BC Assessment Authority property information on a weekly basis. There are typically between 3,000 and 9,000 property information and sale changes each week. Our competitors in BC and across the nation typically update data stores once a month. Landcor™ has the most up-to-date information on property in BC.
So are East Vancouver apartment prices crashing as shown by the landcor data or are they remaining fairly steady as shown by the MLSlink data? I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between – It’s pretty tricky to ‘benchmark’ housing based on all the variables, but I’d be interested in hearing your opinion on this data.
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Rock Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 9:39 am
I’d be much more inclined to believe Landcor’s numbers at face value, because we all know the RE guys will stop at nothing and have absolutely no conscience when it comes to the way they do business. I always use MLS data with a grain of salt, since the potential for bias is large and likely.
Still, I want an explanation of the source of the Landcor data.
Anyone?
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jesse Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:21 am
I noticed this too. I would trust the GVREB benchmark price more than this. It seems they do not quality adjust so it could easily mean the sales mix changed, however the last 2 months are significantly anomalous so maybe this is something more substantial or it might just be a data error.
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mathamatical Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:33 am
True, I use MLS data with a grain of salt as well given the source. I would like to know where the source of the Landcor data is as well.
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Lager not Logger Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:38 am
Has anyone tried writing Landcor and asking them for clarification? If this data is not benchmarked it’s strange that they would use the term HPI, which is what MLSlink calls their benchmark price.
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Krrish2 Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
Krrish2 above I appreciate your comments thanks atleast Sonika can smile on BEACH.
Alright then let’s all together put this elephant in a cup of coffee.
1.Landcore is not reading the graph for us, like we are missing the headlines to direct this graph and we are missing the field discription to discribe this graph.
East Vancouver market is more stronger than the west even recent listing percentage for east shows only 2% Increase while west side is way beyond compare to east side.
will be countinue as situation arise.I am waiting for more thoughts from you guys.
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Lager not Logger Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
Even if that price data is based on transactions rather than a benchmark its still a pretty clear example of demand drop off – apparently people are less willing/able to pay as much for East Van apartments as they were just a few months ago.
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Digi Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:53 am
Is it possible that the landcor data includes the sale of entire apartment buildings and MLS only tracks the sale of individual units? I seem to remember the completion financing for Sophia had crazy high interest, somewhere above 20% annual rate. If the credit crunch is making large scale loans trickier would that drive prices down like this? This would also an investor segment that would care about things like rental return.
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Krrish2 Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:58 am
Lager not Logger,
One of my friend just sold his 590 sq.ft. unit for 215K and the assessment value of that unit was around 180k
split 180,000/590=$305 per sq.ft.2007
$215000/590=$364 per sq.ft. almost 19% up 2008.
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The Pope Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 11:25 am
Krrish2 – really bad signal to noise ratio today, even for you. I can tell you like to be the center of attention, so here’s your special moment:
The Krrish Rule: you represent 1 (perhaps 2) individuals amongst the thousand or so that read this site each day, but you post an inordinate number of nonsense posts. I have no problem with your contention that Vancouver is a magically fairy-land where prices will rise at a higher and higher rate, you’re entitled to your opinion but please try to make it as clearly as you can. In recognition of your assertion that prices are up nearly 20% so far this year you get a special 20% rule – you can take up to 20% of the comments, which I feel is very generous. Badly off topic or completely indecipherable comments will be deleted.
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read on Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 12:11 pm
yes please, we can probably all do without mt krish/satv/etc.
On another note, here’s an amusing story from another once-very-bullby housing market (and a city that like Van is in the top 10 liveable cities lists):
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sect.....d=10501736
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exx Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 12:25 pm
My coworker finally received an offer on his place (25 DOM) – $20K below his original asking price of $469K. He took it immediately. $449K is still crazy for a 700SQFT Coal Harbor condo, but at least there weren’t multiple offers OVER asking price.
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bdk Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Did Krissh buy it? or was it a homeless person from China waiting to go to the moon?
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Drachen Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Pope
“indecipherable comments will be deleted.”
To paraphrase one of my favourite movie lines, “We need to get bigger delete keys… Big %&*$ing delete keys.”
- Dick Durkin
(best Rutger Hauer film ever by the way, highly underappreciated)
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R. Akimow Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
People in East Vancouver are selling their homes to move into condos downtown. If you like cafes and restaurants, downtown is the place to be!
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Chilli Con Carne Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Krrish, keep nose and mastache cleans, maybe student journalist and together with law student work on project, lead like horse to water, uncover instead of deep well much mortgage fraud, tax cheats and also land deal not so transparentcy, suspect talk more of you found out.
Also
Imagine if you dare, the Olympics, the best place on earth, RE prices in Vancouver never fall, and we have run out of land, turns out to be a big lie, and now you are stuck with a leaky condo in East Van which you owe twice what it would sell for.
Rob, Krrish, Satv, please explain to the thousands of people who will be in the above situation how negative cash flow is a good thing.
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mathamatical Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Ask anybody who’s been here during the RE price correction in the late 80s and early 90s. If you lose your job or want to relocate you will be screwed because you won’t be able to sell and you’re stuck until the market bounces back.
I had to convince a girl a month to go not to buy. The only reason she wanted to buy a place was just for the sake of owning a place. She had done zero research on the market. I said wait three months and I guarantee price will go down. Hey, if RE agents and developers can guarantee prices will go up I should be able to guarantee prices to go down.
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DaMann Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 2:49 pm
You guys should check out the Fraser Valley March stats.
Sales down 25% YoY, listings up 27% YoY and listings up 85% over 2006!
Stick , fork, done.
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-A- Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 3:11 pm
.
.
.
.
This market is like a slow moving train wreck. It’s a good time to jump off, but not many will.
Call it schandenfreude, but I sure hope a lot of specuvestors end up under the rubble.
With so many specuvestors licking their wounds for years to come, and with so many homebuyers underwater and overextended, it will be decades before the next bubble forms.
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richard Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Greater Van Housing Sales Decline
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richard Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 3:34 pm
On the other hand, we’re tops in interprovincial migration
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franko Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
*
“the RE price correction in the late 80s and early 90s”
As Jogi Berra might have said, the similarities are so similar that it’s dejavu all over again.
I was lucky to have sold an investment property in 1980, before the 81 crash and picked up double the value in 83.
However, not so lucky in 1990, when I tried to unload a rental house with the idea of shopping for bargains somewhat later. I not only waited too long, but turned down a couple of early offers that were much higher than what I eventually sold for. It was during the Mulroney era with all that Meech Lake crap, and very stressful, as the market seemed to collapse in a matter of weeks.
Anyway, lesson learned. Sold all my investment properties over the last year and a half…and the relief is awesome.
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bdk Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Yeah #1 in interprovincial migration.
Just look in the doorways all the bums come here!
Chilli Con Carne:
There is no way krissh understands the concept of Negative Equity, he can’t even use a calculator plus he failed grade 2!
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disbelief Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
I still think Krsssh Satv whatever… Is an immigrant from eastern communist block country that doesn’t have the foggiest about the fundamentals of capitalism. He has been following the bright light and truly believes that you buy house and get rich. Reality check – pay tooo much for house and crawl back home ashamed.
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sheeplessinvancouver Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 4:51 pm
I checked other Landcor graphs for places across BC and saw similar sharp declines at different times in areas where I was looking and didn’t see the same declines, so I too am wondering where the data comes from.
Does anyone know of similar info on other provinces? No, I’m not selling my Vancouver place (need somewhere to live), but am looking to buy and gave up on BC two a couple of years ago.
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EvilThoughts Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Here’s an idea… how about if 20 or so of us go around to all the sellers who are trying to sell their places for waaay too much, and one after the other we offer them 40 or 50 cents on the dollar?
If we do that to enough sellers, do you think we could trigger a pop in the bubble early?
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sheeplessinvancouver Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Some anecdotal East Van sales info. My source is the neighbourhood grapevine.
1 SFH – sold for around $800,000. Less than 2 weeks on market. Multiple offers with the sold offer $80,000 over asking. Buyers from out of town.
1 600 sq. ft. 1 bedroom condo – sold for around $300,000. No days on market as this was a private sale between people who knew one another.
1 750 sq. ft. 1 bedroom condo – sold for $380,000 which was $80,000 over asking. Buyer was from out of town.
3 listings in a building where a lot of flipping has been happening since 2004. One of them must have been on the market for at least 60 days. They have an open house every weekend and have just lowered the price. Current asking price for this 600 square foot condo is $300,000.
Not many signs, not many more listings, but most signs have been up awhile. If you call “normal” 2002/2003, then things are back to normal.
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crabman Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 9:24 pm
One more bit of anecdotal downtown condo info. I look at listings in my old building now and then. There are usually 4-6 units for sale at any given time. Right now there are 11! Much higher than I have seen in the last few years.
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Anonymous Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
“Best place on earth” but #15 on these lists:
Canada’s best places to live
http://www.canadianbusiness.co.....e/list.jsp
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ulsterman Says:
April 2nd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
mathamatical said “Hey, if RE agents and developers can guarantee prices will go up I should be able to guarantee prices to go down.”
The difference is that the RE agents and developers have been right for the past 7 years.
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dan Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:32 am
you think the markets going to crash? really…
just wait till the next wave of immigrants from india and china and serbia arrive. Probably without background checks.
That or wait until the current generation moves on and has 15 kids of their own under their roof. We’re eventually going to be bred out of this country.
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Anonymous Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 6:38 am
sheeplessinvancouver,
i can assure you, that you are full of Sh1t. show use the mls listing. the freaken market is very slow. every open house and every agent i’ve talked to confirmed such.
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ReductiMat Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 7:41 am
Dan, how far back do you have to go until your ancestors would be labeled immigrants?
Or do you prefer to keep your cognitive dissonance locked away with your moribund rationality?
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bdk Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 am
As far as Dan’s immigrant theory.
The countries you’ve mentioned are classified as poor.
It sure seems like poor immigrants prefer cities like Hamilton, Ontario where they can get high paying jobs and afford to buy housing.
Quesnel,B.C. is another example.
Why would anyone choose to leave a country where they were destitute only to repeat the same process by trying to live in a tiny house while being unable to save due to the high cost of living here and lack of jobs that pay more than minimum wage.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
Mine is that rich people are going to L.A. due to the more affordable housing, established immigrant communities, nice climate, mountains, water and most importantly they had the Olympics in 1984 (since it’s imperative to move to an Olympic city with water and mountains)
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Anonymous Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 8:39 am
“You guys should check out the Fraser Valley March stats.
Sales down 25% YoY, listings up 27% YoY and listings up 85% over 2006!
Stick , fork, done.”
Geez, there should be huge drop in Fraser Valley prices VERY soon, listings will continue to rise. Only a matter of time before a 10-15% drop in a hurry.
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mathamatical Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:17 am
ulsterman,
If the price increases where guaranteed why tell anybody? Buy everything yourself. I’m sure US RE agents guaranteed people in 2006 that houses where going to appreciate in value. Look at the housing prices now. The point I was making is nobody can guarantee price increases or decreases. The market decides that factor.
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richard Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:18 am
Home prices still rising across the country.
“Vancouver remained the priciest city in the country by far in which to own a home. The price of a bungalow was nearly double that of the next most-expensive city in Canada, coming in at an average of $852,750, up 12.5 per cent from last year. Two-storey homes in Vancouver averaged $948,750, up 13.3 per cent, and standard condos averaged $455,750, up 12.9 per cent.”
We’re #1!!!
Nearly double… wow… i don’t know how much longer i can take this…
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Burden of Proof Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:53 am
Regarding the discussion abut “destitute” immigrants, I have never met a poor or destitute immigrant from Indian or China in Vancouver.
Furthermore, the poor and destitute of the DTES appear to be from two ethnic communities: native canadians and the canadian born children of european immigrants. You don’t see indians (south asians) and chinese begging on the streets.
The conclusion is that immigrants to this city have enough money to have a decent standard of living in Vancouver. They are far from being destitute here.
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Burden of Proof Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 am
Further, regarding immigration,
Government and business require population growth because it increases the size of the domestic market and therfore increases business profits. It increases the tax base to fund government expenditure, including CPP and public service pension liabilities. Correct me if I’m wrong but 60% of Canadian population growth comes from immigration.
Therefore, immigratioin will continue, so long as Canadians don’t have enough children of their own. Business demands it and profits require it.
“We” may indeed be “bred out of this country” depending on who is the “we”. But this is capitalism. This is the free market. Money matters more than emotional attachments to traditional identities. Therefore, bring on the immigrants and bring on the profits. All “we” can do is to be in a position to cash in.
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Raveen Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 10:08 am
Nice post above. I agree 100%. I always see Natives/Canadian borns complain that outsiders take all the good jobs and have made homes too expensive. But I’ve never seen those immigrants complain that the natives/canadian borns have bid up the price of crack/heroin or that all the good cubby holes under the bridge are all taken.
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richard Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 am
Housing sales slow to 2001 levels in greater vancouver.
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Re-diculous Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 am
Thanks Richard, my, my it is amusing to see how these RE guys spin bad news….
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Second Look Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 am
If you have a look at the graph again prices have “bounced” back up apparently!?! No idea how that works since the data points are for the same months.
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patriotz Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 11:39 am
I have never met a poor or destitute immigrant from Indian or China in Vancouver.
Well why not check out any farm in the Valley, or any number of small businesses in Vancouver, where you will find loads of poor immigrants, many working for less than minimum wage.
Destitute no – they are getting by, but just.
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krrish2 Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Burden of Proof,
I like your opinions on immigrants”from the Business demands it and profits require it”immigrants replace the ageing and retiring population it’s good way to get serve and it’s all about gives and takes.
“Well why not check out any farm in the Valley, or any number of small businesses in Vancouver, where you will find loads of poor immigrants, many working for less than minimum wage”.
But they can also enjoy six month of e.i. as farms are seasonal working class can’t be poor but close to poverty line for sure and enjoying the health care facilities on low monthly payments.
There are certain conditions for immigrants like landing fee around $1100 and around $18,000 in pockets to run their first year.Average airline tickets cost around $2,000 per individuals lots of bussiness class and skill workers own huge amount of properties back home once they like it here they can easily switch over their wealth for “best place on earth”.So most of immigrants can’t be poor than those who were mentioned above.
BTW,sheeplessinvancouver thanks for your enecdotal evidence and I was driving by east broadway just had seen a realtors assistant was changing board from sale to SOLD.
Richard thanks for your links there is no question remain bulls were not lying about “BEST PLACE ON EARTH”and about buyers from overseas and from with in provinces of Canada.
British Columbia’s strong economy, low taxes and range of job opportunities are a powerful incentive for people to come to our province.”-SC
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bdk Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 12:48 pm
My point was, rich immigrants have more than one option when emigrating.
They don’t just move here because condo prices have gone up..
Middle Class immigrants can go to towns, and the first one I have actually seen is Hamilton and in this case I was thinking of their Polish community that came here with nothing and can actually earn more than minimum wage and don’t have to pay the exorbitant costs of living associated with the Lower Mainland.
I have seen plenty of working poor living in Richmond.
three generations sharing a 2,000 sq ft house doesn’t spell success to me.
Not destitute but they do not have two loonies to rub together.
So when people suggest all immigrants are rich I am inclined to disagree. Of course there are lots of rich immigrants here but there have been all along , it does not mean that every single specuvestor will automatically be able to sell their assignment for (with a trailer park accent) “an easy hundred grand”.
Additionally I’ve seen dozens of Hong Kong investors selling their units over the last couple of years and they aren’t buying here anymore and these were the people buying the units for 15 years when no one wanted them long before random hairdressers from Surrey, and idiot labourers like Krissh even knew what a mortgage was.
The prices these unsophisticated investors are paying now ($500k) could have bought a detached house in Dunbar in 2001 and wages have not tripled since then nor has rent. In 2001 it was only upper middle class people could afford these prices, what’s changed since then? Wages haven’t tripled…
Judging from the influx of rentals available and the rental prices of downtown Vancouver from this time last year (unchanged) the rent prices will remain unchanged or decrease for some time.
Incoherent ramblings about no surface parking lots aside there is a lot of land left to densify in downtown vancouver and once that’s all been built it’ll just be a matter of getting approval from the planning department to double the allowable building floor space ratio (did anyone think there’d be two 61 story towers on one block ten years ago?) and perhaps throw in some infill buildings on the cavernous open air and low rise parkades in the west end.
Miami arrogantly thought they were different too and scores of unsophisticated buyers lined up without doing their due diligence, now they’re crying.
How can Vancouver be any different? The sales pitch’s are identical.
Does anyone remember when
http://pricedoutforever.com/
was launched?
It applies here too.
In the 1990’s the masses were convinced they needed SUV’s to commute to work in, in hindsight did anyone who didn’t buy an SUV simply because everyone else was lose out?
Have V8 Limited Cherokee’s become the most prized used vehicle? They should have because everyone wanted one….
What’s this? Things have changed since then?
But rich immigrants were lining up to buy them in the 1990’s……Everyone wanted one! The Olympics!
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Sidelines Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Burden of Proof:
“…The conclusion is that immigrants to this city have enough money to have a decent standard of living in Vancouver. They are far from being destitute here.”
Okay, so maybe you’re not the dim-witted xenophobe Dan is, but maybe you’re a bit lazy in verifying your claims? (can’t quite believe the lack response by readers to Dan’s comments, btw. The silence is a bit disconcerting.)
Anecdotally, I have a completely different experience. I work for a governmental regulatory agency. I see lots of poorer immigrants. Destitute? Maybe not. Well-off? Far from it.
But, hey, sure anecdotes are interesting, but how about some facts? The following, from stats can, though from a report dated a few years ago, appears to supports the conclusion that many immigrants may not be exactly flush with cash:
“In most urban centres, recent immigrants were at least twice as likely as Canadian-born workers to earn less than $20,000 a year. They were also much less likely to have high earnings, that is, more than $100,000 a year.”
From: http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/En.....40818b.htm
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franko Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:02 pm
*
Ok, ok bdk, we believe you already.
The only holdout is that weird krrish person and who the hell would take her serious?
I mean, with inventory starting to spike, could this storm get any more perfect?
It’s about to get really exciting, as sellers start to panic.
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bdk Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Before anyone corrects me. I was referring to the parking lots attached to the old high rises in the west end that could have some infill, but not now I mean twenty years from now. Furthermore the low rise zoned areas can be rezoned. There is no shortage of land.
The surface lots and low rises all over yaletown and that area were meant to be separate ideas.
No.4 Road and Alberta in Richmond was 15 run down houses 7 years ago and now it’s how many condo complex’s? With 600+ units?
The whole running out of land B.S. is another intrinsically flawed theory that salesman/realtors spew.
That and the gold plated planes carrying uber rich immigrants into town.
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Burden of Proof Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:37 pm
From today’s Calgary Herald:
The association’s latest MLS data show unit sales for residential properties (single-family homes and condos) in the province decreased by 30.3 per cent compared with a year ago in February (6,602 to 4,601) while new listings increased by 44.9 per cent (from 7,800 to 11,302).
New listings were at the second-highest level ever for the province.
Email to a friend
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Font:****A number of factors are fuelling the phenomenon of soaring listings in Alberta, said Richard Corriveau, regional economist for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
“Now that price growth has come to a grinding halt, speculators are looking to get out of the marketplace,” he said. “So people who had purchased in previous months are attempting to now get out of the market because there’s no incentive to wait for future price gains in the near term. We’re still forecasting increases into 2009, but currently prices have levelled off.”
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Burden of Proof Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Alberta is experiencing, in greater magnitude, the same trend that is evident in BC and Ontario over the last 2-3 months. YOY listings increases and sales declines.
Unless, this multi-month phenomenon has occurred before during the course of the current boom (and I don’t think it has), the national market is certainly turning.
How long until we see people jumping from the windows of their leveraged, negative equity condos?
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RJB Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
A few months ago, I drove through my childhood neighourhood in Delta. It is now packed with East Indian families with four cars in the driveway and three generations in a single home. They have a completely different way of living from European Canadians (which is neither right nor wrong, just different).
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mathamatical Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 2:34 pm
My co-worker lives in White Rock and was expected to leave the rental unit he was living in. The landlord came back and asked if he could stay another year because the place can’t sell. A year ago he would have been forced out but now the landlord is asking him to stay. Things are changing indeed.
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Burden of Proof Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 3:08 pm
RJB,
The financial advantage of generations living in the same home is that the 20-30 somethings living with their parents have never paid rent. While we pay $25k in rent or more in mortgage payments, they have a huge stockpile of cash with which to buy low priced assets when the bust bottoms out.
Many of my East Indian and Italian friends have obtained graduate degrees and started professional parctices with zero debt because of this arrangement. They are now sitting on hundreds of thousands of dollars of savings and they are in their early thirties. If RE prices fall significantly in the bust, they will buy houses without needing mortgage.
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Ugly, Stupid Barry Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Although it might not fit well in many Bear arguments, I think it’s worth pointing out that rents have gone up pretty substantially in Vancouver the last few years. You might not have noticed it if you haven’t been apartment hunting lately, but it is a fact. That 1% vacancy rate is very real.
I personally moved into a 900sf 2 bedroom three years ago that was renting for $1100/month. Two years ago, some friends got a similiar place in the same neighbourhood for $1200 a month. And last month I moved into a nicer but smaller 750sf 1+den in the same neighbourhood for $1350/month.
That’s approximately a 23% rent increase over 3 years. A far cry from the 50% increase in condo prices, but still not comfortable.
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bdk Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Ugly stupid barry, those are low rents. What area are you talking?
Downtown prices have not been increasing on the 1998 and up stock. If anything the crappier units like Firenze have dropped this year and the good ones have held the rate.
In Coal Harbour the units that were worth $2000 a month (and $330k resale) in 2004 are still renting for around $2,000 even though the units are reselling for close to double. Ambitious/rookie landlords try to get $2300 on Craigslist but they just keep getting reposted.
Some sites you can sporadically browse to verify this
http://www.bruceward.com
http://www.downtownsuites.com
http://www.prompton.com
Rancho, Southview etc. also have postings within their sites for rentals….
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Drachen Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Ugly, Stupid Barry
“That’s approximately a 23% rent increase over 3 years.”
Umm that’s got to be the worst statistical analysis I’ve EVER seen.
YOUR rent has gone up 23% therefore RENTS have gone up 23%. Do you realize that when your argument is laid out it sounds insanely stupid?
First off, rents have increased, but not 23% or anything close to it. This is a not uncommon phenomenon (happened in all bubble zones in the states too) as landlords are squeezed by higher prices they push the limit on rents. On the way down however landlords are desperate to get ANY rent for their empty suite which is losing value AND costing mortgage payments each month, the rental trend inverses and returns to normal levels as the prices of RE are falling.
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punface Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 4:28 pm
In my older West End building, rents (for new renters, obviously) have gone up well over 25% in the past 2 years.
I’m still a bear, so flame with care.
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jesse Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:02 pm
“If RE prices fall significantly in the bust, they will buy houses without needing mortgage.”
Many have already jumped in. Kids living at home and saving until their 30s has been around for many years now; it’s nothing new, as is parents helping out with the DP. Note the BC savings rate is negative so likely there aren’t enough piles of cash around to put a floor on the market. Of course if there is a crash the piles of cash that are around will make out just fine.
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RJB Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:21 pm
“Downtown prices have not been increasing on the 1998 and up stock. If anything the crappier units like Firenze have dropped this year and the good ones have held the rate.”
Firenze probably has gone down because of things like this:
Elevator problem in F3
I believe it’s in the F3 building.
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Re-diculous Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Since we seem to be doing a survey on rentals, my wife and I have been in a very nice, 950 sq ft, 2 bedroom in the west end for over 4 years. rent 4 years ago $1600/month, now $1664 – I recon thats 1% increase per year.
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Re-diculous Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:56 pm
….I should add that is still well less than half the monthly cost of owning the the place….I’ve done the calculation many times.
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Nski Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 7:22 pm
More anecdotal rent information. I’ve lived in the same unit for >3 year. 3 Bedroom unit at eastern edge of Vancouver. Rent started off at $1200/month and rent today is … $1200/month. Rent increases? What rent increases?
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blueskies Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 7:40 pm
just signed a one year lease in Yaletown 1 bed/den with a 600 sq. ft. patio 1 park 1 storage $1800/month
looked at some interesting stuff
and more good stuff to choose from
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nvgrl Says:
April 3rd, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Pass the popcorn, please..
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ReductiMat Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 7:57 am
To all those who have been renting the same place, you do realize there are laws in place that limit rate increases?
If you moved today, how much will you have to pay for the equivalent unit?
We just moved last month and our rent went up 50%. Granted, we paid a premium for a larger suite (still) in yaletown with an original owner running through an established property management company.
I’ve been watching Yaletown prices for years and there is no doubt about it, they’ve gone up. That said, we’re still covering under 30% of the mortgage+taxes+strata if we were to buy today.
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bdk Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 8:47 am
The maximum allowable increase this year is 3.7% and they have to give you three months notice after 12 months.
If anyone is looking at Yaletown and the area I just counted over 10 nice 1 bedrooms under $1400 on Houshunting.ca
198 AQUARIUS MEWS 1 BR, pkg. views, pool/gym, concierge $1400 May 1
YALETOWN ELAN Brand New 1 Br, w/d, hwd, prkg, $1375.
1 BDRM+DEN avail May 1, 193 Aquarius Mews, ns, np. Pkg avail. Gym, pool, concierge, strg. $1325. Open house Apr 6
501 Pacific, 1 bed, full appls, in-ste lndry, 1 prkg, hw flrs. Np/ Ns $1250. May 1. Rancho
939 Homer, 1 br + sol, 7 appls, 1 pkg, amens, balc, $1400.
888 Hamilton, crn 1 br den, 822sf, 6 appls, 1 prkg, $1400.
1 BR apt dble f/p, h/wd flr, lrg balc & strg, cat ok, pkg, Mondrian Spa $1395
1018 CAMBIE 1 Br + Den, April 1, 1 prkg, pool, gym, locker, appls. $1350
1060 ALBERNI The Carlyle, 1 br, pool, gym, jac, prkg avail, ns/np. $1225.
1166 Melville, 1 br + sol, 7 appls, 1 pkg, amens, $1200
989 Nelson Street – 612-4344 1 bdrm, 5 appls, no parking lease $1100
It seems like Craigslist has a lot of stupid prices but if you stick to the newspaper (or online it’s househunting ca) you’ll be fine
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Ugly, Stupid Barry Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Umm that’s got to be the worst statistical analysis I’ve EVER seen.
YOUR rent has gone up 23% therefore RENTS have gone up 23%. Do you realize that when your argument is laid out it sounds insanely stupid?
Drachen, I post anecdotal evidence, because that’s about all I’ve got. Statistical measures of rents in this city are hard to come by, and the few examples I’ve seen only show average rents – which includes long-term tenants, and usually doesn’t accurately reflect current new-tenant rental prices.
As far as I know, everyone here already understands the limits of anecdotal evidence. It’s a data point, not cast-in-stone proof. We post it to inform one another of what we see. Consequently, everyone here posts anecdotal evidence without qualifying it as such – its limitations are already obvious. If I post anecdotal evidence that disagrees with certain theories you have, then find your own anecdotal proof (or even statistical proof) that backs up your own theories and post it. This is basically how conversations work.
I do have sympathy for you, and the syphalis that has racked your brain, causing you to thrash out wildly at imagined threats, and unnecessarily capitalize words in your sentences. Neverthelss, if you snap at me again, I’ll rip your dick off and feed it to you.
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Michael Randallbard Says:
April 5th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Krish
“One of my friend just sold his 590 sq.ft. unit for 215K and the assessment value of that unit was around 180k”
Thats a pretty big jail cell
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Michael Randallbard Says:
April 5th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
richard
“On the other hand, we’re tops in interprovincial migration”
So is Florida with ten times more people moving there daily than here. New Jacksonville condos now selling for about 60,000.00
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Anonymous Says:
April 11th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
BC Assessment data -> Landcor
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Anonymous Says:
April 11th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Disclaimer from Landcor’s site
Landcor™ Data Corporation provides these reports as a courtesy, for general information purposes. Because the British Columbia Government and its agencies provide the data to Landcor™, we do not control the accuracy of this data. Furthermore, these reports are based on information available as of a particular moment in time.