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April 5th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
vanguy – Last stock market correction created a good buying time, I made some good gains over the last bit. There are some bargains still out there. With a recession in effect, you’ve obviously got to be pretty careful. It’s all about due dilligence. Some say you’re best served to put your money in something safe and wait for another big correction, then buy. Watch for bonds over the next while, try to buy before the next rate cut.
I know this is weird, we’re talking about investments that you don’t need to borrow the money to buy.
April 5th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
“Some people I’m sure have 6 figure savings accounts, and are wondering what do with it. ”
I bought 1 and 2 year GICs just before the rate rut, since it was advertised pretty well.
April 5th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
“I was having cocktails at Opus Bar”
hahahaha! … dude, if you’re trolling, this is hilarious that you would think people would actually give a shit about ‘cocktails at opus bar’.
If you aren’t trolling, then I feel sorry for you, i guess the jedi mind tricks in the Concord Pacific presentation centre videos really got to you.
April 5th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
a little off topic, but…
what are all the renters who’ve accumulated savings doing with those savings? As the central bank cuts overnight rates, my citizens acct is now only paying 3.5% which after taxes, and inflation really means it’s paying 0%.
Some people I’m sure have 6 figure savings accounts, and are wondering what do with it. Commodities (risky), foreign currencies (really risky), real estate (hmm hmm), stocks (my choice)…
It’s open Friday so I’d thought I’d put this out there…
April 5th, 2008 at 10:41 am
“Comment by Rob A.
2008-04-05 09:59:29
I was having cocktails at Opus Bar and I told my friends about this blog. We all had a good laugh”
Rob, I guess what’s funny, or sad is a subjective thing.
I think your blog is both funny and sad.
April 5th, 2008 at 10:40 am
We all had a good laugh
who were you laughing at?
greater fools like yourself?
April 5th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Trollistanian by heritage but not new. Name’s different but same old noise. Another one for my killfile.
April 5th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Rob A
you’re a goof and your smug RE-hyped attitude will will soon be gone. Stay tuned and you might learn something about economics and realestate cycles.
April 5th, 2008 at 10:21 am
^not spell good now me^
“immigrant”
April 5th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Is Rob A a recent imagrant from “Trollistan” or a serious person?
April 5th, 2008 at 9:59 am
I was having cocktails at Opus Bar and I told my friends about this blog. We all had a good laugh
April 5th, 2008 at 9:13 am
So little RE left, so many buyers.
I would, beg, borrow and, steal to get in the market, before I am forever priced out, but there is just so little supply to choose from, but seriously:
Do the MLS listings include listings that are exclusive to a specific realtor? If so, it means there are probably thousands more listings than what MLS shows.
Does anybody have any stats?
Is there a greater landslide on the way?
April 5th, 2008 at 8:54 am
SleeplessinVancouver
Interesting analysis of the “Housing to sink after games” article of yesterday. Perhaps the arguements of these so called “RE experts” are very weak and misleading irrespective of whether they are presenting a bull or bear case.
I believe, that far more significant than the content, is the fact that the Province posted an article with this title at all.
April 5th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Drachen,
I agree with you, its a dumb idea. Dramatic increases in property taxes for non resident buyers and for unoccupied residences would be a good move, in my view. It may limit some real demand and also limit the perceived demand that contributes to speculation.
I believe that many other jurisdictions have taken this measure.
April 5th, 2008 at 7:29 am
I hear the City NDP wants to pop the bubble. Problem is their plan seems a bit backwards to me, see if this makes sense to anyone out there.
Their plan is to legalize all secondary suites on the premise that with the extra housing available people will rent some guy’s basement rather than buying.
First off, it’s not like anyone in this city is shy about having an illegal suite. Secondly it will probably have a negative impact because more people will rationalize that they can squeeze a half dozen students into their basements to help with the mortgage and people who are interested in buying aren’t going to settle for a crappy basement suite with an unprofessional landlord.
April 5th, 2008 at 12:13 am
We blew our one chance to have affordable market housing when the current City government changed the plan.
The city cannot create “affordable market housing”. The market decides for itself what is affordable. If prices are high enough that supply outruns demand, prices will have to come down.
Nobody has any right to own RE. If people decide to pay ridiculous prices to buy RE, that’s their choice and they will have to face the consequences.
That said, there are a lot of things the government can and should do to discourage RE speculation. But it’s a lot easier to drum up a fake bubble economy than one based on sustainable production. Well look at the outcome of that south of the border.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Olympics and Housing Prices
I don’t think the Olympics will have a significant impact on housing prices. The headlines about the credit crunch may. People are starting to wonder if it could happen here. As a result, comsumer spending and home buying will likely start declining.
That’s not what keeps me awake at night. I’m watching for oil and commodities to reach bubble status. I don’t think we’ll see oil at $60 a barrel ever again, but it’s overpriced right now. And when it goes down, so does the economy in Western Canada.
I saw this first hand in the early 80s. I was living in that day’s equivalent to Fort McMurray. The National Energy Program was announced. The rigs packed up and moved out of town almost the next day. There was actually a line up of them on the highway heading for the US. Even those who didn’t work directly for the oil companies had their hours cut back or were laid off. Sixty-unit apartment buildings emptied of tenants.
This was the summer of ’81. Back in Vancouver housing prices were at all time highs. Every day there was an article in the paper about how unaffordable housing had become. The latecomers to the frenzy were still scooping up houses expecting to make big profits.
The help wanted ads went on for pages and jobs were easy to come by. The economy was booming and only those of us who had seen what happened in the oil patch knew it was an illusion.
It took about six months and then poof went the economy in Vancouver. It didn’t recover until the late ’80s. Those of you around then will probably remember the lineups for jobs at Expo 86.
Which brings us back to the Olympics. I know a lot of people who came to Vancouver for Expo 86, liked what they saw and moved here. There is now an expectation that the same thing will happen with the Olympics. Only time will tell if they are right.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
freako,
Here we got paul’s number as following…..
Surprise for STRATAMAN and his friends mine too but out of b/b.
Okey wow just my sweet toe you don’t have to GO!there to check p’s number because that would be another jolt for our bears fellas no! not yet, are you sure? you did not get that up to here hoon? OKEY let me break that bearish dream today.
“Those are resale home NOT INVENTORY, resale home means those homes are under some one’s care -some body already taking care of them,Inventory is “something that is available in unused stock”
Another Punch “Ground for third last parking lot has been broken” at robson infront of library and two left over parking lots never know if some body want to sell them or keep’em.
Nothing to count in the begining of 2009 get some jugs now but sorry I my self do not drink.
CHEERS ALL THE BEARS UP-UP-AND UP
April 4th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
Re “Housing Market to Sink After the Games”
From the headline, I thought this would be interesting, but it’s just sloppy journalism.
Most of the investors buying because of the Olympics think the prices will go up after the Olympics. They may be wrong, but they are not buying so they can get $25,000 in rent for a couple of weeks.
“Pomeroy said the Olympics will create 3,000 new housing units, which will flood the market.”
If he’s referring to the Athletes Village, he’s probably right, but there’s no direct mention of that in the article. We blew our one chance to have affordable market housing when the current City government changed the plan.
“He said the underlying conditions for a bubble-burst are arriving — income stagnation, rising interest rates and over-supply of units.”
Aren’t interest rates dropping? If they’re coming down, they’ll probably go up eventually, but does this guy have a crystal ball that is telling him that they will go up in 2011?
“I would say wait — buy in 2011,” he said.
If everyone follows this logic, they will wait and the prices will drop before the Olympics. But then they might go up in 2011 because of pent up demand.
“Sharon Chisholm, the association’s executive-director, said she worries mostly about the young college graduate, saddled with student loans and working in a low-paying job.”
The young college graduates where I work may have student loans, but they’re starting at $40,000 plus a year – not exactly what you make working at the 7/11. Most people don’t take out a mortgage just out of college and they don’t usually start out by buying a house.
“Those young people go into the rental market, she said, but even rental units are declining.”
Fewer units means a lower vacancy rate. Rents go up. I know, a few on this list would disagree arguing that rents depend on affordability. I guess they’ve never shared a one bedroom with a group of roommates. That’s how you work around the affordability problem.
“The latest figures show that it takes 79.2 per cent of the average Metro Vancouver income to buy a 1,500-square-foot house, an 18-year-high.”
“Metro Vancouver’s median income of $59,000 wouldn’t qualify for a mortgage on the average house, now $648,592.”
I’m not disputing the figures. People making the median or less don’t buy houses unless they have help with the down payment, win the lottery or whatever.
“Duncan Maclennan, professor of urban economics at the University of Ottawa, said people are investing in buy-to-let homes in Metro Vancouver, pushing prices up.”
True, but they’re mostly buying condos, not houses, unless they find a dump for a really good price and rent it out until the land increases in value (or the growop gets busted).
“You certainly also displace first-time buyers, because you have pushed up the price of housing,” said Maclennan.
True, but the market eventually corrects. The first-time buyers wait until the prices drop and they have a down payment.
There is plenty of analysis on the web about how prices drop in cities post-Olympics. Why is there no mention of these stats in this pitiful excuse for journalism?
April 4th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Check out Pauls numbers! It’s BEAR Country!
Yep, slicing through the 13K’s like a hot knife through butter.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Get with it Rob A. You can’t come on this blog and spout your opinion! Unless of course it supports a real estate crash and you have a graph that people can link to.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Cost of capital …. 2.5mm$ houses cost about 15-18,000$ a month to carry … go to craigslist and put in 4,000$ in min. in the apt/house renting section … pretty obvious people are assuming anywhere from 5-8% capital appreciation (if they’re rational investors). I’m sure if you did the math on Manhattan or equiv. London areas rent would be v. close to the cost of capital.
Hey bulls … $2,500,000 compounded at 8% in 80.5 years your place will be worth a cool Billion$ (not kidding!). For you more rational types watch for housing prices to revert to trend.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Drachen
You’re right the stats will reflect the site and not the city.
It still gives me an idea as to how things compare as far as asking prices on the market go.
April 4th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Check out Pauls numbers! It’s BEAR Country!
April 4th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Yep did some one say we are still at rock bottom prices?
Yeah “we are still at rock bottom prices” check the
forbes link by Lager not Logger and grab some beers not bears.
April 4th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Here’s the forbes article on the worlds most expensive rents:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/.....state.html
To find these and other such markets, we used data from Mercer Human Resource Consulting, which based its numbers on 2007 data for rental properties in the Class-A market. Though it means different things in different places, a Class-A designation roughly equates to a unit in high-end, unfurnished building in a good part of town. The measures are taken at the median level, so as to exclude the ridiculous costs of premium apartments in neighborhoods like London’s Belgravia or on Central Park in New York.
So yes this is NOT an apples to big apples comparison.
April 4th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Would you guys like to DIRECT this SPACE CRAFT of Vancouver r.e.to your friends and family then here it goes like this year over year over month over month over
2008
Mar08 Apr08 %Change
Detached 761k 764k 0.43
Attached 472k 473k 0.29
Appt 387k 389k 0.67
2007
Mar07 Apr07 %Change
Detached 682k 695k 1.9
Attached 428k 432k 1.1
Appt 349k 355k 1.7
2006
Mar06 Apr06 %Change
Detached 610k 620k 1.6
Attached 375k 380k 1.3
Appt 305k 308k 1.0
2005
Mar05 Apr05 %Change
Detached 503k 518k 2.9
Attached 319k 325k 1.9
Appt 248k 254k 2.4
Hey now!hey now!every body put your hands UP in the air now.year over year over month over month over,Vancouver B.C.BPE
April 4th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
Jadeeast
Unfortunately those stats only tell us about what is on that website, not what rents are being paid on units that are occupied. It seems, given the disparity between the occupied median $ and the asking median $ that either;
There are a lot more high end units sitting vacant or
Streeteasy sees more clients in the high range than the low range (perhaps low range go to Craigslist or the newspaper).
April 4th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
at some point the MSM will be blamed for publishing bearish reports and “driving the market down”
April 4th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Oh, I’m feeling it though, MSM is starting to print bearish reports on it, just the beginning. Still think its going to take some time for some serious negative momentum to take a toll on prices to get them back under the long term trend line, signaling to me that its buy time.
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,right? To the specuvestors its more like: From fear comes your greed, twit. Live and learn, buy and burn.
April 4th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Busy boards, I love it, bulls getting on the defensive, I love it even more.
Re: Olympics – from what I have heard, the “reason” people feel there is a tie, is people believe the world will come here, sip from the same cup as Krrsh and the gang, and want to move here. At that time they’ll buy up everything they can, for over inflated insane prices because they will be in awe of Vancouver. Nevermind all the steals of deals elsewhere, this is the be all end all, the olympics will make it so.
FYI – 2010 same year as World Cup, South Africa. The World Cup is a far larger, and greater sporting spectacle than the Winter Olympics, who also get outshined by their seasonal twin, the Summer Olympics. Look it up, ratings don’t lie.
Also, as Drachen said they think there is a huge 2 week rental windfall that will make holding onto that property worth while.
April 4th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Stats above were for Manhattan.
April 4th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
If your looking for realeaste or rental info for NYC
http://www.streeteasy.com/ is pretty amazing IMHO.
Rental stats from today are.
found 8,113 listings
Median price: $3,325
Median size: 800 ft²
Median price per ft²: $57
Interesting to me seeing what big apple prices are in relative to here.
$1800 dollar studios in the Gramercy park area
$2700 bucks for a one bedroom.
April 4th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Lager not Logger
“average 2 bedroom apartment rent in Vancouver last year was $1086, Forbes shows the median 2 bedroom apartment rent in New York to be $4000.”
Are you sure that’s not Manhattan? The City of New York says the median rental cost per household is $826 in 2005 so I can’t imagine how that statistic is possibly accurate.
April 4th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Crabman
You forgot F “Just plain ignorant!”
April 4th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
rob:
do you by any chance own a condo at 1188 Howe?
a sub penthouse with views of Granville?
the one with 25K of upgrades?
if so…. did you ever get to sell it?
April 4th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
I found this blog and I don’t know what all of you are so pessimistic about. I own a condo downtown and I don’t think it is going to go down because everyone wants to live downtown. It’s where the action is! Everyone wants to live there!
Can you tell us which of the following apply to you?
A. Young.
B. Not very financially sophisticated.
C. A troll.
D. Just messing with us.
E. Krrrish.
April 4th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
“average 2 bedroom apartment rent in Vancouver last year was $1086, Forbes shows the median 2 bedroom apartment rent in New York to be $4000.”
I’m not a statistician, but aren’t “average” and “median” different measurements? And are the rental figures for the same year? A one bedroom in Vancouver will cost at least $1200 this year.
April 4th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Another very bearish Sell/list ratio coming to http://www.nvcondos.ca tonight. Look for the numbers between 8pm and 9pm.
April 4th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Shh! You’ll scare the specuvestors!
exactly!
the only way these types learn anything is through actual experience.
they have to live through the bare knuckle reality check.
neg cash flow/newbie landlord/underwater debt load/sleepless nights
collection agency with your number
on speed dial
wake up satv the bell tolls for you!
April 4th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Right on Rob A. Good attitude. I’ll leave you to it though! too much traffic and crap for me, and I’m not into winter sports at all. I’ll be subletting out my rental for twice what I pay and going south to a warmer climate for the month, gotta love a good lease agreement!
April 4th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
I’m really looking forward to the Olympics. It’s going to be a fantastic two week party especially if you live downtown, where all the action is!
April 4th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
.
.
The only effect the Olympics have had on our economy was inflating construction costs of all those new condos. That’s all history, as the olympic portion of all that costruction is winding down, and those costly condos are not selling.
Our market will have crashed and bottomed by 2010, and looking for excuses to resume the uptrend.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
The fact that it even occurred to you to ask the questions means you “get it” far more than the average condo flipper!
April 4th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
ok, so the world comes here to crap for couple weeks and folks think it has effect on RE… Thanks for helping me understand this. Oh wait, i still don’t get it!
April 4th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Shh! You’ll scare the specuvestors!
April 4th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
So in a nutshell there is no connection. The people I talk to are oblivious to the fact the this is/was a WORLD WIDE RE boom. They have no clue. If Vancouver was the only city in N. America to boom then maybe there was a factor of the games. The whole bloody world is/was booming and now correcting.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
In a way Vancouver is in a bit of an awkward adolescent phase. It’s too big to have the charm of a small city that it once had, but not big enough yet to have the impressive range of economic and cultural dynamics that happen in world class cities.
So for now we make do with economics based on pot and construction and most of the people that would add to the art and culture of the city move to where there’s more opportunity or the cost of living is lower.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Olympics
Some people believe that they can kick out their tenants, rent their crappy 1 bedroom shoebox out for $25,000 for two weeks then sell at a profit.
The connection is people are stupid. The same crap was said about Expo 86, look where that went.
April 4th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Hype is the connection, that’s my point. All the specuvestors haven’t a clue what the games will do so they all think that for whatever reason prices will skyrocket until after the games. There are actually some morons who keep bantering on about the fact that they will be able to rent out their DT condo for $10k for the 2 weeks for the games. So overpaying by $300,000 is worth it to be able to rent it out for $10k for 2 weeks. So in a nutshell the morons think that stupid high rents for 2 weeks is a justification for 50% overvalue.
As well there are other not so bright thinkers that actually believe the world doesn’t know about Vancouver and after watching the games they will all flock here to live. Just like they did for Turin. You know Turin, the place everyone wants to live.
Actually I think a strong agrument can be made for why the Olympics will hurt RE prices here long term. Massive debt, bad press ( it will basically rain for 2 weeks and the world will be watching), Overbuilding.