Growing majority avoid buying
When you’re in the middle of an investment mania it’s hard to imagine things ever being any different. A couple of years ago a number of Americans thought investing in real estate in cities like Las Vegas, Miami or San Diego was a great idea – if the market stopped going up it would simply stop appreciating as quickly, prices would never go down.
Well after two years of lower sales and slowly dropping prices pessimism has started to overtake the US housing market with a growing majority showing no interest in buying a home anytime soon:
In a vivid sketch of how the sputtering real estate market is causing distress throughout the country, the Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance poll found that more than a quarter of homeowners worry their home will lose value over the next two years. Fully one in seven mortgage holders fear they won’t be able to make their monthly payments on time over the next six months.
“This is a great time to buy, but not necessarily to sell,” said Robert Jackson, who lives in a two-bedroom house in Ferguson, Mo., with his wife and four young children. He said he would love to purchase a larger home, but can’t because even if he found a buyer, he would probably lose thousands on his house, which he bought less than two years ago.
…
Sixty percent said they definitely won’t buy a home in the next two years, up from 53 percent who said so in an AP-AOL poll in September 2006. At the same time, just 11 percent are certain or very likely to buy soon, down from 15 percent two years ago.
The growing reluctance to dip into the housing market seems to stem partly from worry that housing prices will continue falling — good if you’re buying a house but bad if you have to sell one.
The number envisioning falling prices in their area has grown to one in four, while four in 10 think prices will rise, a decrease from two years ago. Expectations for rising prices are highest in the South, with Westerners likeliest to predict they will drop.
Underscoring the public’s unsettled feelings, the number saying local housing prices are about right has fallen to 35 percent. Half say homes are overpriced — especially in the Northeast — while those saying housing is underpriced have doubled to one in 10, particularly Midwesterners.
Here in Vancouver with our run-up in house prices it’s hard to imagine the majority of residents having an overall negative outlook on investing in local real estate, but it’s happened here before and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen again when the market corrects.
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April 17th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
krrish2 he’s playing Katie from Horton Hears a Who.
“In my world ….”
Me thinks he doth protest too much … Why do you all keep biting … he’s on our side.
Can’t wait to buy two houses when the dust settles.
April 17th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
“My motivation is to provide strong hands to save the market from bearish desire because i think there are lots of people who can handel the monthly payments.”
Bwhahahahahahaa!
Translation: “C’mon! Jump in this warm sh*t bath with me! I’ve got a tall glass of kool-aid you can drink while enjoying it!”
April 17th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
“to save the market from bearish desire”
If the market his hanging on your ability to defeat the bearish arguments it’s in worse shape than I thought.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
tony,
our arguments represent us as bears and bulls our comments are expresion of our feeling and understanding the markets strength.
you think you will force the market to fall as your pocket does not handel this cost.
My motivation is to provide strong hands to save the market from bearish desire because i think there are lots of people who can handel the monthly payments.
April 17th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
I know it’s frustrating but I am genuinely curious…
April 17th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Tony
You’re trying to ascribe motivation to an inanimate object.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Krisshh can you answer my question? If not then STFU!
April 17th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Tony,
That was simple answer to his question and he has gone out of sense when ever bears get busted they just start screeming in un recognized manners.we are polite means Canadian “foreign policy” not me or my city thanks.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Krissh/SATV, What’s your motivation for posting your [nonsensical and incessant] rants? Just wondering, what’s your MO?
April 17th, 2008 at 11:18 am
BDK
There’s really no point in trying to reason with him. He’s immune to any form of intelligent argument. Just pretend you’re visiting the special ed class, you won’t be far off the mark.
April 17th, 2008 at 11:02 am
He means around the blog scene. You should know that anything coming from Krrish requires interpretation into english.
Most of the traffic from VHB moved here after VHB moved away so it has sort of become a reincarnation for the old VHB blog.
And yes. I do have special powers.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:58 am
So according to Krissh the terrorists won’t hit here because Vancouverites are polite?, despite seeing us as gluttonous western pigs they’ll stop to differentiate?
How does an uneducated suicide bomber learn the difference between Canadians and Americans if there are no schools to teach them?
Right they’ll know we’re different, just like George Bush was able to differentiate Afghanistan as opposed to Iraq and soon Iran….
Are you saying New Yorkers aren’t polite people?
Is this why New York was attacked? Did it have anything to do with New York being a WORLD TRADE CENTER?
Isn’t Vancouver just as big a world trade centre?
If no then why are the prices higher in Vancouver and how could they possibly go up any higher?
How do you know New Yorkers aren’t polite?
Have you been to New York?
Were people rude to you?
Do your views represent all terrorists?
Are you a terrorist yourself seeking a safe place to hide out?
April 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Drachen must have special powers to have been here since 2005 since this blog was started in June of 2006.
April 17th, 2008 at 10:31 am
“In case of DRACHEN he’s been on this blogs since 2005 and he don’t even know the deposit for new projects prior to OCT 2007 was 25% and after that it’s 20%.”
Yeah, I don’t know because I don’t CARE. The actual percentage is irrelevant to my point in any case. But trust a moron like you to pick apart the irrelevant and avoid the relevant parts of the argument.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:42 am
1.If Vancouver is the best place on earth then it becomes the #1 city on the terrorists list to attack.
NOT TRUE,We have very very polite attitudes and foriegn policy even the war is US led not us,we have miner but no threat at all.
2.Could be possible but very less destructive compare to this……
Population 2007
California 36,457,549 more than Canada
BC-2008=04,413,973
Imagine if that many pop have to hit the street at one time who can easily exit.
“3.NAFTA means we don’t get to keep all our water”
but still not enough supply to feed the huge pop and their future supply has been sold in advance.
4.As far as I know your link show all the most of total include completed projects……
Elan and Raffles are completed as far as i know this TV towers are going to complete 2009 and woodward also 2009, ritz carlton in 2011, hudson done ,donovan may be end of this year or next year. so you should put the proper data by number of unit and number of completion date other than this means you like to over take on some one for nothing.
6 is your opinion you are entitled to post on your door and back of your car or flag it.
7 you are absolutely right but that does not mean market will crash because there are other people who are taking care of the market.
for the rest your mentality gone to eat grass now you can’t even see the difference between male and female,Whats going on? stop playing fosball just watch relexing movie in holly like screen you MR coolharbour.
April 17th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Translated krrsh’s comment to chinese and back. I thought it might “undo” what the poster-who-is-krrsh is doing to the language.
Didn’t work, but it’s not like it makes less sense.
_____________
mostly the bear persisted their logic took over control in other people does not have a matter suitable knowledge therefore the bubble theme basis desire was not in the fact.
Sells in him in 2005- is happy I in he word “early” and in the STRATAMAN situation not too to think your peace of mind will possibly roll you to campaign for 3 years in this with for the surplus yours future.
In the DRACHEN situation he has been in this blogs since 2005 and he did not even know deposit for new project before 2007 October will be 25% and that it later is 20%.
He represents it in the BDK situation is elephant’s link and the theory completely is opposed he desire why you don’t read you to post with the discovery answer.
I preserve in the BBY “but situation finished $2K/month”
you to know how many isn’t the average price rises each month? Your the money has the value only if you invest that in to work it otherwise are look like “one unemployeement” which wants are the basic necessity therefore the family is rewarded or sits to the aquire inflation advantage other
investments in egs is likely there is does not have the base under the investment so when the market collapsed the only people to be able once to stand by the family high because you could still use it not to have to have to pay rent, permanent nest for family gift to our childrens.
“I see debtor” to form the “best place in the rock solid plate in Earth”
April 17th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Krissh, I schooled your stupid little brain the other day but it must have been to confusing for you so here’s the executive summary (for the labourer)
1.If Vancouver is the best place on earth then it becomes the #1 city on the terrorists list to attack.
2. Natural disasters can happen here, such as a massive earthquake.
3.NAFTA means we don’t get to keep all our water.
4.There are more than 2 buildings completing downtown before the Olympics.
5.Vancouver has tourism which means SARS could land here at any time, or perhaps the rich foreign investor variant.
6.You can’t be serious that paying double for a mortgage will allow you to stand after a crash, seriously no one could possibly think something so stupid.
7.Even with $400k down on a $500k unit it is cheaper to rent a similar unit right now and have money left over to feed your children and leave your family something.
So after all the businesses close and you go work at wal mart, you’ll be standing tall because you’ll be in foreclosure.
Why don’t you go buy more at todays prices? If it’s such a good investment?
You must be joking, there is no way someone could really be as stupid as you pretend to be, silly girl.
April 17th, 2008 at 8:56 am
“Probably explains why I’ve been wrong about a housing bust for the last three years”
Absolutely Right,most of bears insist their logic to take over on others without any appropriate knowledge of facts- so the bubble theme is based on desire not on facts.
In case of STRATAMAN he sold in 2005- in his own words “too early”and still happy-I don’t think your peace of mind can roll you over here on campaign for 3 years and for rest of your future.
In case of DRACHEN he’s been on this blogs since 2005 and he don’t even know the deposit for new projects prior to OCT 2007 was 25% and after that it’s 20%.
In case of BDK the link and theory he represented is totally against his desire it’s like why don’t you read your on post and find the answer.
In case of BBY”but I do save over $2K/month”
do you know how much is average prices are going up per month?.Your money have no value unless you put that on work otherwise it’s like “a wanted unemployeement”
Homes are a basic necessity so homes are rewarded to aquire the benefit of inflation any other investment or just sitting on egs is like there is no base under investment so when the market ever crash only people with homes can stand tall because you can still use it without having to pay rent,a permanent nest for family a gift to our childrens.
“I see debt people”
On Rock Solid Plate Forms “the best place on earth”
April 17th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Was out at Flo in Richmond recently. 2 months after completion, very few have moved in, and now lots are now up for sale.
Not surprised about units being for sale, but very, very few taking residence. How long can they hold on?
April 17th, 2008 at 7:40 am
ex-vancouverite said:
Yeah, we’re doing that too – 5th wheel, going south a few months in the winter but keeping the rental townhouse.
Hey I can’t afford a 5th wheel or a rental townhouse! Are you rubbing my nose in your “success”? A**wipe!
April 17th, 2008 at 6:26 am
They live on credit.
“I see debt people”
April 17th, 2008 at 5:44 am
ex-vancouverite ; “Probably explains why I’ve been wrong about a housing bust for the last three years:>)”
Hi ex-van. My wife and I sold in 2005 a condo, because we too felt there would be a bust, and still do. Sold to early obviously BUT we are much happier because we no longer have uncertainty hanging over us. Sleep way better then when we were owners. Renting in a Tower we were interested in now, and glad we didn’t buy; no realitor would have mentioned we are above the main ambulance dispatch on Richards! I have found you have no idea what a building is going to actually be like unless you live there,(neighbours,strata etc) open houses are pointless acts of staging. We will wait for a major correction which will come soon, in the meantime enjoying freedom of NO commitment to a place!
When that happens we will rent in a building we would like to buy in first!
April 17th, 2008 at 12:36 am
“I agree, my savings rate is definitely NOT the norm. My coworkers don’t understand how I can put ~$2K/mo into savings. I just tell them “I don’t have a mortgage, I pay $1000 for rent. I don’t have kids. I would literally need some sort of drug addiction to not save a significant amount.””
Yup, me too. I’m a coupla dozen $K from making 6 figs on my own, but I do save over $2K/month, and could put down more than $100K for a down payment. I don’t own a car, and rent an apartment close to good transit at under market. My landlord is even going to reno my place with probably no or negligible rent increase. I like to travel though. And am hoping to start my own business someday.
Would be tempting to buy a nicer place when the price is right, after the olympics(tm).
THOT: In a sane market, people will own nicer places than they would rent. But in the current insane market, many people could rent nicer places than they are buying. The irony is devasting.
April 16th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
They take huge risks and know how to use leverage.
No they don’t. The way to use leverage is …drum roll…
Buy low, sell high
April 16th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
“How can someone reach the wealth to be able to purchase at this level and be so stupid? Or am I missing something?”
They live on credit. They take huge risks and know how to use leverage.
April 16th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
It’s not about either of us. I’m done.
Tenga una buena noche.
April 16th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Really, Professor? I stand corrected. It’s all about you, instead.
It’s not about either of us. I’m done.
April 16th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
.
I’d like to reiterate something said by Jeff the (anonymous) realtor – to paraphrase;
We, you and I, and the readers of housing blogs are ‘too close to the data’.
Watching numbers, crunching them, sleeping on them, we’re too tied up in stats. Most people on the street don’t follow this stuff and the average realtor doesn’t know what’s happening.
Probably explains why I’ve been wrong about a housing bust for the last three years:>)
April 16th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
What’s the big deal with renting and sitting on a growing pile of cash? You still have a place to live and history has shown that your investments will grow larger than they will if you sink your money into housing. Bubble periods aside, it has always been thus.
April 16th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Hi Strataman,
I’m a WestCoaster, born and bred. I’d love to be here for the rest of my life, but it’s not a great scenario to retire at the height of a housing bubble. Especially here.
It pisses me off to be sitting on a pile of cash, doing nothing. I can see why people run off and buy a house. Sometimes, you just want to get on with your life. But, that would be shooting yourself in the foot – there is no point in buying here and now.
That’s still a high-class ‘problem’. Many folks can’t even entertain that idea.
April 16th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Drachen:
Even so, if the potential buyers walk at a later date the 10% is forfeited , representing 60K and up, plus the potential of being sued for the balance. Actually at the Beasley 20% will be required prior to completion. The mystery is why ANYONE, would take that risk now with the meltdown occurring seemingly everywhere else but here.There as some units priced above 900K that are reserved and I’m told it is a similar situation in SE False Creek with even higher prices. How can someone reach the wealth to be able to purchase at this level and be so stupid? Or am I missing something?