Growing majority avoid buying
When you’re in the middle of an investment mania it’s hard to imagine things ever being any different. A couple of years ago a number of Americans thought investing in real estate in cities like Las Vegas, Miami or San Diego was a great idea – if the market stopped going up it would simply stop appreciating as quickly, prices would never go down.
Well after two years of lower sales and slowly dropping prices pessimism has started to overtake the US housing market with a growing majority showing no interest in buying a home anytime soon:
In a vivid sketch of how the sputtering real estate market is causing distress throughout the country, the Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance poll found that more than a quarter of homeowners worry their home will lose value over the next two years. Fully one in seven mortgage holders fear they won’t be able to make their monthly payments on time over the next six months.
“This is a great time to buy, but not necessarily to sell,” said Robert Jackson, who lives in a two-bedroom house in Ferguson, Mo., with his wife and four young children. He said he would love to purchase a larger home, but can’t because even if he found a buyer, he would probably lose thousands on his house, which he bought less than two years ago.
…
Sixty percent said they definitely won’t buy a home in the next two years, up from 53 percent who said so in an AP-AOL poll in September 2006. At the same time, just 11 percent are certain or very likely to buy soon, down from 15 percent two years ago.
The growing reluctance to dip into the housing market seems to stem partly from worry that housing prices will continue falling — good if you’re buying a house but bad if you have to sell one.
The number envisioning falling prices in their area has grown to one in four, while four in 10 think prices will rise, a decrease from two years ago. Expectations for rising prices are highest in the South, with Westerners likeliest to predict they will drop.
Underscoring the public’s unsettled feelings, the number saying local housing prices are about right has fallen to 35 percent. Half say homes are overpriced — especially in the Northeast — while those saying housing is underpriced have doubled to one in 10, particularly Midwesterners.
Here in Vancouver with our run-up in house prices it’s hard to imagine the majority of residents having an overall negative outlook on investing in local real estate, but it’s happened here before and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen again when the market corrects.
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jojo Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Frankly as a FTB with a wife and kid, my professional salary (let’s say north of 70k) would mean any modest SFH (detached or otherwise) would probably have to drop by a minimum of 40% before we could afford to buy. A condo under 850 sq.ft is not a suitable option for anyone looking to raise a family. I would rather rent in such circumstances.
We will probably look at leaving Vancouver in a few years if nothing changes for the “better”, which leaves this BC native rather disgruntled.
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newguy vancouver Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Yeah, true in the US, and is coming north. The numbers show that Vancouver sentiment is changing rapidly. Paul B shows listings on the REBGV skyrocketing to over 14000 as of Friday. He posted on his blog that there is “more of the same” today. We will likely have over 15000 listings by the end of April.
Things are looking very precarious right now.
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arbitrage Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Pope, could you post the results to all the polls (after they’ve closed – do they ever close?) in one central location?
It seems that by the time everyone’s who reads the blog (mostly bears and trolls) has had a chance to vote, we’ve moved onto another topic.
Also, when I access from another computer, I like to see the results without having to vote again
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crabman Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
OT – Check out this new ‘city’ 40km from Madrid:
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/.....p=18834213
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-A- Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
The prices will drop, but if won’t be reflected in the industry manipulated published stats for a while.
The developers will throw in incentives such as cars, or will pay your mortgage x months, years, free car, vacations, etc.
The small time flippers won’t be able to match the hidden price slash and will keep hanging on until the inventory swells.
By the time the greedy fools wake up from their denial, it will be Florida of the North.
I can see a scheme in the works where the developer will give you a free condo, if you finance it through them-”easy terms”, no down payment, and you get a cell phone with it!
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exx Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
A new coworker brought up housing today in the cubicle of 4 that I sit in. One of the 4 is a bull, the other 2 are bears – not including myself. I tried to stop him before he started but it was too late. The feeding frenzy ensued…
The amazing thing I find with all of the bull’s that I’ve run into is that they could care less about any stats/figures/anecdotes you come up with, NOTHING matters as long as the value of their house goes up.
He lives in Coquitlam, so I showed him the inventory graph on PaulB’s site for Coquitlam. Nearly double the inventory of last year. His response? “That inventory is for houses you can’t afford. All of that inventory is for 4/5 bedroom houses.” We couldn’t convince him otherwise, it was quite something. And yes, according to him this is the best place on earth, everybody wants to live here and prices will never drop, BUT they *might* stall for a bit.
The new guy that brought this up also lives in Coquitlam, he owns a house that has doubled in value, but he brought this up because he thinks prices are about to drop. The graph made absolute sense to him since he said the number of for sale signs, especially on condos, is staggering.
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gonebabygone Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
I can’t wait to leave this city and its dysfunction behind. We decided a few months ago to leave and go bargain hunting states-side….our move is set for fall. Bravo Vancouver – there go two more young professional high-income earners out of this city and with their tax contributions in tow. If I’m bitter its only becuase the idiodic short-sighted greedy cannibalism of the local RE market has made me grumpy and disappointed. Anyone with their eyes half open can see where this is heading.I hope that speculators like the taste of drywall – its going to be the only thing left to eat when they all take a bath on their “investments”. I hear a little hotsauce does wonders.
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Re-diculous Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
-A- good point, the key is to maintain the perception that prices are not going down, because once that perception reverses…..there wil be a flood on the market
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Goner Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
I’m a six figure income earner going south. I can pay off a house down there. Why the hell would I want a 1/2 million dollar mortgage?
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franko Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
.
.
The coming crash is so damned obvious that it’s no wonder that the glimmer of hope from recent buyers is fading rapidly, and with markets tanking all around us it’s bloody well time for the few remaing fools to remove the blinders and wake up.
Those previous crashes of 81, 90, and 95 all coincided with recessions. It is no coincidence that inventory is growing at an unprecedented rate and the excitement on these forums is approaching fever pitch. There is little doubt that history is ready to repeat.
It’s a perfect storm, and this could be the biggest bust many of us are likely to witness in a lifetime.
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krrish2 Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
“We decided a few months ago to leave and go bargain hunting states-side”
is like a rat runs to cross the border
“there go two more young professional high-income earners”
are you kidding?if not why can’t you buy something?
“leave and go bargain hunting states-side”
Oh Really then how much would you sell it for later if you have to?I guess on current market prices and how much would you buy?I guess on current market prices.
“Why the hell would I want a 1/2 million dollar mortgage?”
to save your investment from drowning-do you know? Resteven has sold his house last year and moved to California and bought a place there since than the market went down in that area around 25% in that case the gain he earned over here has gone into the pipe there-A punishment for bitterness towards “the best place on earth”.
“there wil be a flood on the market”
2.5 million people and 13,100 re-sale homes almost 10-11,000 of them are there to trade,to change hands from one-two bed,two-three bed,three-house.
left over 2,000 are listed for new buyers-
Stop complaining-if you can not afford where ever you are just move around to 360 degree find some thing to suit your income.
Those who are selling their homes will never be able to buy back on same and lower than that.
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Anonymous Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Krrish,
Good to see you back!…I thought you had left wih your tail between your legs. I always get such a kick out of your nonsense posts….I mean the bits I actually understand.
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blueskies Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
great post!
brings out the anecdotes that really tell the
story….. except for the last post.
was hoping satv would be RE roadkill by now!
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ulsterman Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Here’s a good bear article that appeared in Sunday’s New York Times. Focuses on the market-that-could-only-go-up aka Ireland and to a lesser degree Spain. The sad looking Irish lass on the front page bought her one-bedroom condo in May 2006 and has already “lost” 100k.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/6no533
Please don’t use this to forecast the end of the Vancouver bull market, because we have a magic bubble that protects our market from real-world fundamentals.
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blueskies Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
magic bubble
i used to do those in the pool until i was permanently barred from swim class…..
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emile Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
We are making $150,000. But with two kids, this city is just too expansive to stay. We are leaving too ( we found better paying job in a less expansive city). Bye bye resort city, snobbish doggies exercising on Spanish Banks, and rich students driving Escalades.
Yes, we became bitter, and that is why we should better go before turning sour.
And no, we won’t wait for the crash, because even if it goes down 30%, it will still be too expansive. And do not run the numbers for us: we are willing to repay our mortgage in 6-7 years. Period. (btw, we want a nice house with a yard).
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vanguy Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
My wife would like to leave. The only alternative for me is state-side as the rest of this country is too cold.
I lived 5 years in California, and it’s nice, but I find it all too consumerist. Maybe I haven’t spent enough time on Robson lately.
Did I see that Ozzie Jurock video right? Did he say that the 800k median was for all of Vancouver – from Mission to the West End, with a median W.Ender now $2mil and and E.Ender $1.2mil. Holy shoot.
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patriotz Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Those previous crashes of 81, 90, and 95 all coincided with recessions.
There was no recession in 95, nor was there an RE crash – rather a slow bear market throughout the late 90’s. Many sectors of the BC economy were doing very well, particularly high tech and film making. Really as the US goes so goes BC and the US economy was growing strongly at the time.
Prices started falling in 95 simply because they had gotten too damn high – supply outrunning demand. Real prices in 95 were very close to the peak reached in 81.
A definite contributing factor was the reversal of immigration from HK and the HK RE bust in the late 90’s (so much for the “running out of land” argument) which resulted in the repatriation of a lot of HK money from Vancouver RE.
I know a lot of people didn’t like Glen Clark and I’m not a fan of his either (one big reason being he was responsible for bringing the 2010 Olympics to Vancouver, which to a large extent has enabled the current RE mania), but the BC economy did grow during his tenure.
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The Pope Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Great comments everyone.
Arbitrage, I leave the polls open rather than set an arbitrary time to close them. I’ve added a ‘polls’ category that lists all the stories with polls attached – you can view it here:
http://vancouvercondo.info/category/poll
I’ll look into making a page that just shows the poll results, but that will take more time and may not happen if it’s too complicated or time consuming.
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The Pope Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
..Actually that wasn’t too complicated at all. I’ve made a page off just the polls without the attached stories here:
http://vancouvercondo.info/polls
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Anonymous Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
“The growing reluctance to dip into the housing market seems to stem partly from worry that housing prices will continue falling — good if you’re buying a house but bad if you have to sell one.”
Isn’t this backwards? If the market is falling, how is it “good if you’re buying”? Frankly, it’s better to be selling than buying since you can sell your house today and buy it back in the future for less.
But maybe I’m just not the sharpest tool in the shed.
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cheapskate Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Since we would only buy with a 40% drop, the survey is kind of ill-posed for us too.
Over the weekend we were visiting a sunny, warm place. Yup, Edmonton had a heat wave Sat/Sun. We went for a nice look around the neighborhoods south of the university. Decent houses selling for mid 300s, really quite nice stuff in the mid 400s. My friend is looking to move up to one of these houses. His realtor completely acknowledges that prices are falling because inventory is very high compared to last year (although she still thinks he should buy fairly soon because “it could change”). I’ve been up to Edmonton a couple times before for work. Didn’t get a proper look around until this time. Seems like a decent enough place and has an economy that I can understand. Maybe vancouver’s worth a 10-20% premium for the weather, but 100% mark-up seems like a lot.
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patriotz Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Before you consider buying in Edmonton take a really good look at this graph.
There are a lot of good reasons why Edmonton has been historically cheap and I don’t think they’ve gone away.
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-A- Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 5:29 am
pariotz, history means nothing.
It’s all changed. Western Canada, and by extension, Edmonton, is now the center of the Universe.
Apparently China and India are all we need.
Read Diane Francis new book!
And you do believe everything she says don’t you?
What ulterior motives would she have in promoting the mining and oil sector?
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Drachen Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 8:28 am
I’ll look at buying when the metrics are down to normal levels. 40% or less of current prices. I haven’t seen any metric that shows over 50% of our current market price is sustainable.
Personally as I’ve said before prices are approximately 3x what they should be and when the crash happens prices should drop to around 1/3 of current levels. 10% or 20% is a fool’s game, that would have been just like buying a year or two ago when prices were already over double any sustainable level.
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Drachen Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 8:29 am
From the New York Times
“Since last fall, eight mostly midsize chains — as diverse as the furniture store Levitz and the electronics seller Sharper Image — have filed for bankruptcy protection as they staggered under mounting debt and declining sales.
But the troubles are quickly spreading to bigger national companies, like Linens ‘n Things, the bedding and furniture retailer with 500 stores in 47 states. It may file for bankruptcy as early as this week, according to people briefed on the matter.
Even retailers that can avoid bankruptcy are shutting down stores to preserve cash through what could be a long economic downturn. Over the next year, Foot Locker said it would close 140 stores, Ann Taylor will start to shutter 117, and the jeweler Zales will close 100.”
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Alum Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:03 am
This blog is full of bears, who missed the train.
To be realistic, unless you have a lot of hard cash, you cannot buy real estate during a downturn. Financing would be more difficult and banks won’t lend you money.
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read on Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:23 am
alum
you can if you have 20% down, solid credit and a 6 figure plus income… you have to remember that in times like the bank are desperate for decent clients as those without have dried up/gone away/declared themselves bankrupt.
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Burden of Proof Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Many bears will be able to buy RE without a mortgage. Many have been saving for seven years and their war chest of cash is huge.
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Drachen Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Alum
“This blog is full of bears, who missed the train.”
That’s OK, the train is on a loop track you see, so it’s better to wait comfortably than to kill yourself running behind the train to hang on and be dragged for a few miles before either being pulled under the wheels or dumped in a ditch when you can’t hang on any longer.
Relax, get a magazine, enjoy some sun. The train will be back and I hear if you buy at the right time you get a really good discount on tickets!
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exx Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Darn, I missed the train.. well I guess I didn’t really miss it if I couldn’t pay the fare back then
On the bright side I have $100K saved thanks to renting over the last 5 years. I couldn’t afford to buy in 2003 when I first started working.. but now I just can’t justify buying while paying $1K/mo rent on Beach with literally a million dollar view, fireworks and all.
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jadeeast Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 10:24 am
“To be realistic, unless you have a lot of hard cash, you cannot buy real estate during a downturn. Financing would be more difficult and banks won’t lend you money.”
So if the market turns there will be little to stop it on the way down.
Not very comforting.
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crabman Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 10:35 am
For those looking for a 40% price drop, it’s getting close to that in Southern California. (of course they don’t have good weather like we do ;^)
All homes________Mar-07_____Mar-08___%Chng
Los Angeles____$540,000 $440,000 -18.50%
Orange________$629,000 $506,000 -19.60%
Riverside______$420,000 $306,250 -27.10%
San Bernardino_$369,000 $265,000 -28.20%
San Diego_____$490,000 $395,000 -19.40%
Ventura_______$566,750 $430,000 -24.10%
SoCal________$505,000 $385,000 -23.80%
Source.
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HomesickButNotNuts Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 10:52 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....antic.com/
Presented without malice…just a sigh of resignation
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franko Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 11:31 am
.
.
.
jadeeast said:
“so if the market turns there will be little to stop it on the way down”
I love it! a priceless response to alum’s attack on bears by claiming that “unless you have a lot of cash, you cannot buy RE during the downturn”….where do these idiots come from?
BTW, no question about “if”, the market is turning RIGHT NOW.
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patriotz Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 11:34 am
To be realistic, unless you have a lot of hard cash, you cannot buy real estate during a downturn. Financing would be more difficult and banks won’t lend you money.
Well I can tell you that the lenders were more than happy to extend financing on the usual terms back in ‘83, and of course that was the biggest RE bust since the great depression.
But I do hope you’re right about your prediction, because I’m going have a doozer of a down payment for my next purchase. I kind of like the sound of “take it or leave it”.
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MATHAMATICAL Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
keep in mind bears, when prices start falling don’t rush in to buy, the longer we hold out the lower the price will go.
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Alum Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
There might be a period of slow price appreciation. I will only imagine a price drop if there is a pressue from lenders calling their mortgages.
Otherwise, as long as prople have jobs and there no massive layoffs (as in the US), a crash is not on the horizon.
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dingus Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
“Otherwise, as long as prople have jobs and there no massive layoffs (as in the US), a crash is not on the horizon.”
Except in the US the cart went before the horse. That is, the depreciation started BEFORE the recession (which is only now becoming apparent), which is just now starting to cause layoffs. I think we’ll be seeing the same thing here.
Look at all the other markets that are deflating now. The sole reason for the pop has been the reaching of affordability limits, the exhaustion of demand and the general change in psychology.
Just because you can throw a ball real high in the air doesn’t mean gravity no longer applies.
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gonebabygone Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Alum: “To be realistic, unless you have a lot of hard cash, you cannot buy real estate during a downturn. Financing would be more difficult and banks won’t lend you money.”
This is where the bulls get it wrong. Many of the bears I know:
a.) Have great jobs with solid incomes that make them a good lending risk in any economic climate.
b.) Simply haven’t bought because they are perhaps more cautious/responsible with their financial commitments or can’t swallow the crap that can be bought at current overvalued prices. Many I know personally have also stayed debt free during this entire bubble.
and…
c.) Have a solid downpayment saved ready when the time (and price) is right and the mortgage they choose to take on makes more sense against their debt/income ratio.
Lending practices (way back when
used to based on some level of risk assessment. Too bad we got away from that huh? Its not going to be the bears that have trouble finding financing….I’ll bet my nestegg on it.
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read on Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Comment by Alum
2008-04-15 14:19:25
There might be a period of slow price appreciation. I will only imagine a price drop if there is a pressue from lenders calling their mortgages.
****
Thanks Alum,
I will be sure to base the largest purchase of my young life on what you “imagine”…
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Drachen Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Alum
“There might be a period of slow price appreciation. I will only imagine a price drop if there is a pressue from lenders calling their mortgages.”
You see, the problem I have with statements like this is that historically;
A) that’s what is said in nearly every bubble near the end.
and B) There are reams of evidence to contradict you and yet you present no evidence to support your case.
Which leads to the conclusion that you are either;
A) Completely deluded.
or B) Hoping to trick others with your shenanigans because one way or another you make money from the housing market.
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bdk Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Alum is playing dumb. he knows as well as everyone else that specuvestors will line up to sell as fast as they lined up to buy.
Lemmings who haven’t done their due dilligence and buy to “make easy money” deserve as much consideration as any unsophisticated buyer who goes and leverages $500k on Oil futures without doing their due dilligence simply because they heard Billy ,from down the street, did it and made big money.
This talk of protecting buyers when they are trying to capitalize on the free market seems silly to me.
Krissh, please stick around as the prices crash 40% this year, it’s going to be fun reading your perception of what’s happening.
If you can understand this question explain what is going to happen when 75% of the newly completed units hit the market as the demand for these new units hits a ten year low.
Try to stay on topic
Cheers!
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-A- Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
I’m so surprised California is taking such a beating; after all they are the British Columbia of the south.
Sure their IT, film, tourism, agricultural and other industries, as well as their general economy is not quite developed as ours, and they don’t have the population base we have.
Maybe what will keep the bottom from falling out of our market will be the acute land shortage and the huge population we have compared to California.
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bdk Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
“Developers in Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., are readying nearly 10000 total new units in a market already struggling with canyons of unsold condos.”
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bdk Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
-A-
Brilliant!
It’ll be interesting to see what krissh’ll say to that!
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crabman Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
It’ll be interesting to see what krissh’ll say to that!
Probably something like this:
They have terrorism and errfquake, and too many illegal alien. Also too much sun and smog. Gas price too high, you have to take car everywhere, we have great public transit and new Canada line! If you live downtown, you can walk – no gas bill!
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-A- Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
“It’ll be interesting to see what krissh’ll say to that!”
bdk: maybe the Olympics? Maybe the old lie- “we don’t have subprime” maybe because we grow good pot, because the weather and the soil is perfect in BC? (although it is grown indoors).
Whatever the explanation it will be interesting and quite scientific.
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Pessimist Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
The vote should have included a 40% category, which is the level to which I believe prices in Vancouver need to fall (in real terms at least) before the market will be fairly priced vs. the cost of renting. My family income is in the $120K/year neighbourhood — that means we can afford a one bedroom condo in this market. Doesn’t make sense.
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moldcity Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
I’m so surprised California is taking such a beating; after all they are the British Columbia of the south.
Imagine if they started making movies or decided to get into high tech, they might even give our weed and condo-based economy a run for its money. Fortunately it’s way too sunny so they don’t have the focus to do real work down there.
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Anonymous Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
You can’t compare BC to California. In 2006 the BC GDP was MORE THAN 180 MILLION DOLLARS. California’s GDP in 2006 was only around 1.7 trillion.
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Anonymous Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
“I’ll look at buying when the metrics are down to normal levels. 40% or less of current prices.”
Uh, that’s a little optimistic, dontcha think? Maybe just concede home ownership isn’t for you.
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Strataman Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
alum “Otherwise, as long as prople have jobs and there no massive layoffs (as in the US), a crash is not on the horizon” no massive layoffs huh? so when the 200,000 of the 220,000 condo construction workers get laid off this fall would you consider that a massive layoff?
and the remaining 20,000 next year after Canada line is completed? Construction is the ONLY sizable economy Vancouver has, high tech doesn’t even come close to those numbers.We are not Seattle, no Microsoft, Boeng, or any head offices except may Lulemon! 
Tell Lullemon they have to expand big time. 25000 new employees every quarter I think?
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crabman Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
I think you meant 180 BILLION.
And California’s GDP isn’t that high. It’s only 35% more than Canada’s 2007 est. GDP (1.274 trillion).
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Drachen Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Anonymous
“Uh, that’s a little optimistic, dontcha think? Maybe just concede home ownership isn’t for you.”
Funny thing. I have history, economics and mathematics telling me one thing. And you telling me another. On the whole I think I’ll side with data, numbers, facts, you know all those wishy washy ‘hippie’ notions. Your uneducated guess does not sway me.
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exx Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Wow. Really? History? Historical review somehow points you to a %60 drop in real estate prices? When might this happen?
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exx Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
^ Uh.. that wasn’t me.
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arbitrage Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Thanks for the poll page the Pope
I’m in the pent-up demand, waiting for a greater than 20% drop group. Going on the historical appreciation (something like 3%/year?), what percentage do we have to drop to get back to “normal” again? Anyone have the percentage handy?
That’d be a nice constant sidebar graphic – a percent drop back to normal counter.
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Krrish2 Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
Bdk,
Percentage is bs unless you throw in real numbers from what is left over to occupy.there are almost 350 units per towers so how many towers are going to complete in 2008?.
if you look at downtown for those numbers,those are elan and raffles so your calculation comes to 700 units. if all those unit does not sell there won’t be any crash but those units are already sold so no crash again.
there is always demand for all category the problem for flippers or seller after completion is that “there is no method to give a secure exposer to assignments” unless all the unit hit the MLS system once those get listed in MLS it’s very easy to sell any over hang.Because of that fillipers are mostly strong investors buying or flipping is not a child’s play only people with strong hands were making millions you can imagine all the previous completed projects were possessed without any sound.
Crabman,A,
Thanks to write a response the way it should be so you guys know there are lots of problems,In California there are three extra problems those are different than rest of America those are water,gases,and because of huge population there are no arrangement for emergency evacuation compare to the nature of threats(terrorism,natural disasters).
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kit Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
We left Vancouver for Portland “there go two more young professional high-income earners”
Now we are house hunting, no price drops here- portland real estate market is still healthy and good deals go fast with multiple offers. however, lots of inventory in the 400-500’s which buys nice house in a nice city.
good luck vancouver
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bdk Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
“if you look at downtown for those numbers,those are elan and raffles so your calculation comes to 700 units”
“there are almost 350 units per towers so how many towers are going to complete in 2008?.”
The number I saw was 10,000 between now and the Olympics, from looking at one assignment website and thinking off the top of my head I have compiled a list of Vancouver area projects, that you must not have been aware of.
1.Atelier
2.Camera
3.Crossroads
4.Donovan
5.Espana
6.Flatiron
7.Flagship
8.First on First
9.Grace residences
10.L’Hermitage
11.Loft 495
12.Metroliving
13.02
14.Ritz
15.Raffles
16.Sapphire
17.Shangri La
18.Two Harbour Green
19.TV Towers
20.Terminus
21.Touchstone (Burnaby)
22.Woodwards
23.33 Pender
24.Vita
That was off an assignment list
Plus off the top of my head
Patina,Coopers Lookout,Beasley, Crossroads, Millenium Water, Dolce, Residences at Georgia (Ritz), the Hotel Georgia Residences, 1212 Howe, Erickson
Are you familiar with the North American Free Trade act Krissh? Do you think Canada can stop California from taking our water? Does Canada have a superior emergency evacuation procedure compared to the U.S? If yes please explain.
Is Vancouver at any risk of having a massive earthquake?
Is the threat greater here or in Cleveland (aka the second best place on earth)?
What source informed you that Vancouver is the greatest place on earth? Have you been anywhere other than wherever you came from and Vancouver?
Do you even hold a passport?
If it’s so obvious Vancouver is the greatest place on earth doesn’t that make it a more attractive target to Terrorists in comparison to lesser cities like Los Angelos, New York, Sydney, Toronto and Cleveland?
Do you have an emergency evacuation plan yourself if this happens? Does it involve sellig your condo?
What if there is a SARS outbreak?
Or perhaps some world class foreign investor version of SARS?
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krrish2 Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
KIT,
The problem with you guys is that you have left that high income for next couples may be they know how to take advantage out of that.
The “EMILE’S”problem is not a place or income their problem was they were disconnected from their parents for that they have to spend atleast$1600 per month to baby sit their kids
I don’t know if you have a same problem the best thing in this case is if people can find likewise friends they can fix their schdule or buy a decent home and accommodate a single elder or find a decent looking homeless person.
Other than that it doesn’t seems to be anything else can fix your life style.The rest of emiles complaint about dogs and student.
I think there is no city where rich or singles does not keep their dogs with them.
All student cheer in their life I did that for long time you did it at your time so the student world wide keep the cheer up style to impress the public and their friends.
I hope you guys will be back as once exvancouverites discovered the grass is actually greener in Vancouver B.C.
All the best kit,emile
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bdk Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Here you go Krissh, there are more than two buildings here:
http://www.emporis.com/en/wm/c.....&sro=1
I’m glad I was able to open your eyes, it makes a lot more sense now that I realize you thought there was only another 700 units coming and that Vancouver was immune from natural disasters and terrorism. You must feel foolish right now.
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emile Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Krrish 2 has an excellent sense of humour:
“The best thing is if people can find likewise friends they can fix their schedule or buy a decent home and accommodate a single elder or find a decent looking homeless person.”
Asking a decent looking homeless to take care of my toddlers… What a great idea! I am gonna go shopping on Hastings right away. As for the single elder, sorry, but our “elders” are all healthy married boomers enjoying life on the other side of the world.
However, Kirrsh 2 does not seem to understand other people’s sarcasm:
“I think there is no city where rich or singles does not keep their dogs with them.”
Kirrsh 2, could you show us some sound statistics about the dogs of the upper class, worldwide? Thanks.
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ulsterman Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
One area that i find surprising when i read this blog is the number of posters who claim to have saved huge (6 figures in the case of “exx”)wads of cash while renting for years.
Given that we have a negative savings rate i find that this cannot possibly be the norm. Most people don’t calculate the savings between buying and renting and invest the difference. I’m sure some do, but most just don’t – not with a negative savings rate.
After some RRSP conributions many people just spend their money. The old maxim is there for a reason. Despite pay raises many people don’t really feel better off or save any extra money.
Maybe all the bloggers here are just that much more disciplined than the general population.
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kit Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 7:10 am
well maybe high income was a slight exaggeration(cut and paste quotes) , but professional is apt. we fixed our lifestyle by moving to an affordable city where one of us can afford to stay home with the toddler, and we can buy a house. still lots of homeless people here if I need a babysitter though.
The point is no matter how much greener Vancouver is it is a tough place to buy a house.
Good luck to the next couple who know how to take advantage advantage of that
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patriotz Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 7:16 am
Maybe all the bloggers here are just that much more disciplined than the general population.
Maybe? I thought it was self-evident.
Our negative savings rate, like in the US, is directly related to the housing bubble.
One, higher mortgage payments – both for owner-occupiers and specuvestors – consume income and leave nothing left to save.
Two, the move to 40 year mortgages greatly reduces the principal part of the mortgage payment, which is savings.
Three, when someone sells an existing property and moves into a more expensive one, which has increased during the bubble, they start a new mortgage amortization which greatly reduces the principal payments from the level of the previous mortgage.
Four, refinancing a mortgage to a higher balance for spending money (so-call “equity extraction”) is negative savings.
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jadeeast Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 7:41 am
I think the negative savings rate shows that we have shifted economically into a territory where assets appreciation has replaced real earnings and savings for the average person. If this is true then in my mind when(?) property values decline the overall impact will be felt far beyond just the real estate and housing sector and it will not be pretty.
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Lager not Logger Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 7:51 am
..or find a decent looking homeless person.”
Hahaha! the solution to the childcare problem. If anyone needed any proof that Krrish was a joker there you go.
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Lager not Logger Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 7:55 am
when property values decline the overall impact will be felt far beyond just the real estate and housing sector and it will not be pretty.
Thats the problem with building an economy on a bubble – look whats happening in the US, the very first step was houses became ridiculously overvalued, then prices started to decline. Once prices started to decline THEN the economy started to falter. I have no doubt we’ll see the same thing here since we’ve built an economy based on condo construction and speculative demand.
In the US if house prices continued to appreciate there would be no ’subprime’ problem, but there’s no way for real estate to appreciate at those rates seperate from the rest of the economy, you run out of buyers.
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Lager not Logger Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 8:02 am
My savings is similar to exx – I’m debt free and saving is easy if you don’t have a giant mortgage payment so I’ve got no motivation to change that.
I agree that the readers on this blog are more likely to be savers than the population at large, I’d be interested in hearing how much people are able to save by renting and how ready they are for an economic downturn.
Either prices decline here to a reasonable level at which point I’ll buy, or I’ll take my cash elsewhere. Vancouver is an acceptable city, but I’ve enjoyed living in other cities and I’ll happily do it again. Not interested in squeezing the family into a 700 sq. foot condo for the same price as a house in most other North American cities.
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Lager not Logger Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Kit, did you find work in PDX before you moved or after? Are you an American or did you get a work permit?
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Drachen Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 8:11 am
Person posing as exx
“Wow. Really? History? Historical review somehow points you to a %60 drop in real estate prices? When might this happen?”
Well when is not as predictable as if. You have to realize that one is a binary conclusion, the other is on a scale. If you’d bothered to check any sources before responding to me you’d see that ANY commodity which spikes upwards in price without a fundamental shift in it’s value will eventually revert to the fundamental curve. In this case property prices have tripled without any fundamental change in the market which would account for the price change.
My educated guess as to WHEN is: Starting this year, declining through 2011.
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Anonymous Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 8:12 am
And California’s GDP isn’t that high. It’s only 35% more than Canada’s 2007 est. GDP (1.274 trillion).
Yes, I meant BILLION thanks for the correction, but where do you get your numbers for California GDP? If California was a country it would be the eighth richest in the world. This page says their GDP is $2.15 TRILLION (about the same as France.
http://strangemaps.wordpress.c.....ilar-gdps/
For a moment there I thought you were saying California GDP was only 35% bigger than our province, but I see you compared it to the entire country of Canada.
Well I guess we don’t have to worry about a california style housing crash here – the less you have the less you have to lose.
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exx Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 8:33 am
One area that i find surprising when i read this blog is the number of posters who claim to have saved huge (6 figures in the case of “exx”)wads of cash while renting for years.
Given that we have a negative savings rate i find that this cannot possibly be the norm. Most people don’t calculate the savings between buying and renting and invest the difference. I’m sure some do, but most just don’t – not with a negative savings rate.
I agree, my savings rate is definitely NOT the norm. My coworkers don’t understand how I can put ~$2K/mo into savings. I just tell them “I don’t have a mortgage, I pay $1000 for rent. I don’t have kids. I would literally need some sort of drug addiction to not save a significant amount.”
The whole purpose of renting, for me, is to save enough for a large down payment. That has been my goal all along and I think I’m pretty much there, but then again this is very obviously, in most of our opinions, NOT the time to buy.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 9:03 am
My income and savings are modest by some standards here. Both are five figures. So I’m never going to be in the market for Westside SFH.
When the conditions are ideal, we will try to buy something nice in New West or Coquitlam or Port Moody. Something we can raise a child or two in, if we ever decide to do so. Something that is not crappy construction or old as the hills.
I don’t know if I’m asking too much of Vancouver. We’ll see…
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bdk Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 9:18 am
I know two people in the same building downtown with the same layout one faces south and one faces north and the assessed value of each is between $445-455k.
One pays $1350 rent for a unit that’s just shy of 700 sq ft and has a slightly better view plus the upgraded kitchen cabinets and counter top from the developer (the building is 8-10 years old) but to be fair the carpets are worn and it’s had a few more coats of paint done by a cheap property management company.
They moved in last summer and it was advertised in the Vancouver Sun.
The other couple has an identical suite , except they have the cheap laminate “hardwood’ floors and a mortgage of just over $400k (assessed value is $446k this year) and moved in late 2006 or early 2007.
They’re paying $2400 mortgage plus $350 for taxes, strata and content insurance.
Seeing as we all make around the same amount of money it wouldn’t be a stretch for the first party to be saving $1500 a month and still living in the “Best Place on Earth” in the same building.
The beauty is that if the first party wants to move away for any reason (newer building, better neighbours etc.) all they have to do is hire a moving truck and go whereas the second party has to pay to break their mortgage, pay a realtor $25,000, pay a lawyer $600 and then pay the movers etc. plus they’re missing out on $18,000 a year in opportunity costs (Or a 5 star trip to Cuba, New York and Europe for two).
Of course this will be lost on some trolls here who think traveling isn’t necessary once one lives on the “best place on earth” !
So unless the “owners” unit appreciates $100k a year the couple that’s saving $1500 a month is going to be laughing all the way to TV Towers, where they’ll be able to buy a 2 bedroom sub penthouse for $320,000 and be Krissh’ neighbour!
Although TV Towers is located in a poor mans almost Yaletown.
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krrish2 Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Lager not logger and emile,
Well done folks you guys made it clear that even in your situation you have no mercy for rich and poor or homeless- not even for dogs and students as well,so what were you complaining about?
Please take no offence but there is always some one sitting on the bottom,have you ever heard that suckers born every minute.
I would call you joker with high income complaining,please follow the direction from Patiently Waiting and take a 360 degree turn to buy something-with 150k in pocket and you guys wanted to buy vancouver art gallery, thanks emile and lager not logger hope you don’t mind.
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ex-vancouverite Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 10:04 am
.
We’re a couple ready to retire, with 6 figures for a downpayment, and still earning 6 figures, and still would not touch any property with a barge-pole.
If this RE cult in Raincouver isn’t heaving its’ last breath, then it’s time to exit to sunnier, warmer and cheaper places to live.
And *that* will not be hard to find.
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betamax Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 10:12 am
One area that i find surprising when i read this blog is the number of posters who claim to have saved huge (6 figures in the case of “exx”)wads of cash while renting for years.
Anyone posting here is going to be more money-conscious than the average consumer.
My wife and I spend money on some things, but we save it whenever possible. We like to go to movies, so we got into a group-purchase of cheap tickets, and we no longer buy popcorn & pop during movies.
We eat dinner out twice a week, but we look for good but cheap restaurants, even better if they have coupons.
If we buy a coffee when we’re out, we buy a coffee for $1.75, not a $4 latte.
We like to buy nice clothes, but nothing too expensive and almost always on sale.
We bought an answering machine for the phone instead of paying $ every month for voicemail. Little things add up.
We’re renting a 2-bd, main-floor suite (no one above nor below)in Burnaby; the place is near-new and rent includes heat, cable, internet, plus a big backyard. It’s small but cozy and suits me fine. Only downside is no garage for our Civic, but I can live with that.
We actually get a kick out of being frugal. My wife doesn’t understand why most people buy things to feel good for a short time, rather than feeling good all the time about having lots of money in the bank. When we save money, we talk it up and celebrate it.
We’re saving $4k per month, and total savings are well into 6 figures. Another couple years of renting and we’ll buy a townhouse for cash, no mortgage.
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MATHAMATICAL Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 10:41 am
I earn over 65k and have 40k for a downpayment but still not planning to buy anytime soon. Renting and waiting…. If things don’t change soon I don’t mind moving. I don’t feel like raising a kid in the closest of my condo.
I have a few people from Australia here in my office and none would agree that Vancouver is a better place to live then Sydney. They show me how beautiful their beaches are and warm it gets. They are only here for a year and then heading back home. After a year I might be joining them.
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ex-vancouverite Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 11:06 am
.
We’re saving $4k per month, and total savings are well into 6 figures. Another couple years of renting and we’ll buy a townhouse for cash, no mortgage.
Well, it’s nasty sounding off to ordinary people and to younger folk just trying to get by.
I have been a single parent, and I’ve been horribly strapped for cash all my life. Now I’m old, and circumstances happened that I finally catch a break … it’s important not get crazy with this rubbing people’s noses in their misfortune.
It’s not helpful.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Our frugal choices:
Coffee: Never buy prepared coffee drinks. Free coffee at work. At home, buy Fairly Traded coffee in bulk with relatives.
Eating out: Twice a month. Take out once or twice a week because we save on tips and drinks.
Transport: One 7 year-old Nissan Sentra (don’t laugh, its paid for). Wife likes to walk to work in good weather and bus in the winter.
Housing: Large upper flat in four-plex with fair rent. Decent neighbourhood, and old-school, handy landlord who likes long-term tenants.
Clothing: Often from thrift stores, but wife does go nuts at Zellers sometimes
Household items: 6 year-old 20 inch Sony TV, very old (1999) IMAC and near new IBook. Small appliances always bought on discount (regret buying microwave in Sears bargain basement, though).
Vacation: Visited Victoria and attended a wedding. Total expense about $800.
Biggest expenses lately have been on furniture because of some of the deals. Bought with cash, no financing.
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Anonymous Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 11:12 am
I am not even considering to buy in Vancouver.
I am considering to move away from here though, including lower mainland.
I havent seen any 100% increases in my wages, so no sense to buy here. Makes sense to move though.
And the medical field staff shortage is getting worse…
Oh well, have to take care of myself too.
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hughz Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 11:27 am
I don’t know about some of you, but I have really gotten used to being able to divert so much of my income into non-real estate related investments. The idea of parting with them in exchange for highly illiquid housing which effectively ties my fortunes to that of Vancouver has made me consider never buying real estate.
(Yes, I know I should think long term and in terms of leverage – I do both in my daily investment decisions.)
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ex-vancouverite Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 11:42 am
.
(Yes, I know I should think long term and in terms of leverage – I do both in my daily investment decisions.)
Therein, lies the gap in your understanding.
Therein, lies the gap between your ears.
People need shelter, a home. *Not* in terms of leverage, but in terms of staying alive, against the elements, for awhile.
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Drachen Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
“People need shelter, a home. *Not* in terms of leverage, but in terms of staying alive, against the elements, for awhile.”
But they don’t need to own a home. I’d say you’re the one with little grey matter or understanding.
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bdk Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Not only do you not need to own in order to have shelter.
One could have two (rented) apartments for the price of one mortgaged unit!
Maybe have one in Fairview and one Downtown?
Perhaps you’d prefer one in Richmond and one Downtown?
Who’s to say that the both even have to be in B.C.?
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ellery Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
“Well, it’s nasty sounding off to ordinary people and to younger folk just trying to get by.
I have been a single parent, and I’ve been horribly strapped for cash all my life. Now I’m old, and circumstances happened that I finally catch a break … it’s important not get crazy with this rubbing people’s noses in their misfortune.”
what does this mean?
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alta vista Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
I just left the sales office for the Beasley, to be built in Yaletown, over 70% sold at $800 plus a square foot. Certainly someone who can afford these prices must be brighter than me, what gives? Who are these wealthy people and what is their rationale, when even the bulls I speak with are thinking of a correction(albeit no where near Drachen’s.)
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betamax Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Well, it’s nasty sounding off to ordinary people and to younger folk just trying to get by.
Huh? We are ordinary people. We’re not rich, we just happen to make decent money after sacrificing for years in university and paying off student loans afterward. Together, we have a 6-figure income, but neither of us do singly. I know a lot of people who make more than we do.
it’s important not get crazy with this rubbing people’s noses in their misfortune. It’s not helpful.
Newsflash: not everything is about you.
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dingus Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
“I don’t know about some of you, but I have really gotten used to being able to divert so much of my income into non-real estate related investments. The idea of parting with them in exchange for highly illiquid housing which effectively ties my fortunes to that of Vancouver has made me consider never buying real estate.”
Ditto. We save, I dunno, 2k a month or so without really trying. The portfolio is getting to be of an interesting size, it offers the opportunity to diversify (profit take on upswings, buy on opportunity), and the best part, IT IS LIQUID! I figger if both of us lost our jobs tomorrow, we could coast for 4 or 5 years on our savings. Nice comfy secure feeling. Perhaps at some point we’ll even have a big enough nut to live on dividends alone. Buy a house, and all that’s out the window, and, worse, staked 100% to the fate of the Vancouver market.
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ex-vancouverite Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Newsflash: not everything is about you.
Really, Professor? I stand corrected. It’s all about you, instead.
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-A- Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
What in Calgary!!!!
http://www.canada.com/calgaryh.....25d8762860
“The market has been softer than we anticipated, but we’re just a bit under what we budgeted for,” he says.
“It’s so much different than it was last year. I think everyone sensed it would be, but I don’t think anyone thought it would be as challenging as it has been so far.”
While builders are adjusting to the new reality, some are making the shift more quickly than others, says Bobyk.
Yes, it’s hard to believe. Builders overestimated demand.
This is just a few months after their “experts” were talking “shortage of land” “resource boom” and oh yeah the China and India thingamajigger.
Sure hope negative equity, and negative cash flow, is as good for Albertan specuvestors, as Rob says is good for BC specuvestors.
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Drachen Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Alta Vista
“I just left the sales office for the Beasley, to be built in Yaletown, over 70% sold at $800 plus a square foot.”
I think you’ll find that none of them are SOLD. People are trading condo futures, all they pay up front is 10% or so.
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hughz Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
“People need shelter, a home. *Not* in terms of leverage, but in terms of staying alive, against the elements, for awhile.”
Go buy an RV, then. No need to blow your wad on an overpriced POS. In the meantime, I will rent.
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patriotz Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
For the article:
Calgary market adjusting to new reality, says expert
Well no. It’s the same old reality – asset prices always adjust to fundamentals. Calgary had just been trying to ignore it for a while.
“New paradigm”, “new reality”, blah, blah. The song remains the same.
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ex-vancouverite Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
.
“Go buy an RV, then. No need to blow your wad on an overpriced POS. In the meantime, I will rent.”
Yeah, we’re doing that too – 5th wheel, going south a few months in the winter but keeping the rental townhouse.
Sometimes I envy Americans, they can live in any kind of climate they want. We, in Canada, have to pretend that Vancouver and the surrounding gulf islands are like the Caribbean. Anyone who’s been there knows the difference, but we have to keep up the pretense. We’re idiots to buy into it.
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Strataman Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
ex vancouverite ” People need shelter, a home. *Not* in terms of leverage, but in terms of staying alive, against the elements, for awhile.” Sorry but what exactly are you trying to say? Seems to me like yoiur arguing against the very folks that believe that. What if I may ask is your point? Most of the people on the blog agree as you said “We’re a couple ready to retire, with 6 figures for a downpayment, and still earning 6 figures, and still would not touch any property with a barge-pole.
If this RE cult in Raincouver isn’t heaving its’ last breath, then it’s time to exit to sunnier, warmer and cheaper places to live.quote unquote? And your point is its bad to rent and invest for a little stability?. We too are an Older couple, so I am having a problem with your attitude that investing surplus money (which we do because we rent and are not stupid enough to buy) in other investments is some how NOT astute? Clarify please? Maybe I am missing something in your points?
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cashisking Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Agents open house on the westside were dead today (my wife is a realtor) … all the brokers were joking about the fact that they were at there own “opens” so they coudn’t go on “tour”.
Price changes on listings all -ve on realtylink
all anecdotal, but …..
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alta vista Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Drachen:
Even so, if the potential buyers walk at a later date the 10% is forfeited , representing 60K and up, plus the potential of being sued for the balance. Actually at the Beasley 20% will be required prior to completion. The mystery is why ANYONE, would take that risk now with the meltdown occurring seemingly everywhere else but here.There as some units priced above 900K that are reserved and I’m told it is a similar situation in SE False Creek with even higher prices. How can someone reach the wealth to be able to purchase at this level and be so stupid? Or am I missing something?
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ex-vancouverite Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Hi Strataman,
I’m a WestCoaster, born and bred. I’d love to be here for the rest of my life, but it’s not a great scenario to retire at the height of a housing bubble. Especially here.
It pisses me off to be sitting on a pile of cash, doing nothing. I can see why people run off and buy a house. Sometimes, you just want to get on with your life. But, that would be shooting yourself in the foot – there is no point in buying here and now.
That’s still a high-class ‘problem’. Many folks can’t even entertain that idea.
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Anonymous Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
What’s the big deal with renting and sitting on a growing pile of cash? You still have a place to live and history has shown that your investments will grow larger than they will if you sink your money into housing. Bubble periods aside, it has always been thus.
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ex-vancouverite Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
.
I’d like to reiterate something said by Jeff the (anonymous) realtor – to paraphrase;
We, you and I, and the readers of housing blogs are ‘too close to the data’.
Watching numbers, crunching them, sleeping on them, we’re too tied up in stats. Most people on the street don’t follow this stuff and the average realtor doesn’t know what’s happening.
Probably explains why I’ve been wrong about a housing bust for the last three years:>)
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betamax Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Really, Professor? I stand corrected. It’s all about you, instead.
It’s not about either of us. I’m done.
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ex-vancouverite Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
It’s not about either of us. I’m done.
Tenga una buena noche.
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RJB Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
“How can someone reach the wealth to be able to purchase at this level and be so stupid? Or am I missing something?”
They live on credit. They take huge risks and know how to use leverage.
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patriotz Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
They take huge risks and know how to use leverage.
No they don’t. The way to use leverage is …drum roll…
Buy low, sell high
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BBY Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 12:36 am
“I agree, my savings rate is definitely NOT the norm. My coworkers don’t understand how I can put ~$2K/mo into savings. I just tell them “I don’t have a mortgage, I pay $1000 for rent. I don’t have kids. I would literally need some sort of drug addiction to not save a significant amount.””
Yup, me too. I’m a coupla dozen $K from making 6 figs on my own, but I do save over $2K/month, and could put down more than $100K for a down payment. I don’t own a car, and rent an apartment close to good transit at under market. My landlord is even going to reno my place with probably no or negligible rent increase. I like to travel though. And am hoping to start my own business someday.
Would be tempting to buy a nicer place when the price is right, after the olympics(tm).
THOT: In a sane market, people will own nicer places than they would rent. But in the current insane market, many people could rent nicer places than they are buying. The irony is devasting.
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Strataman Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 5:44 am
ex-vancouverite ; “Probably explains why I’ve been wrong about a housing bust for the last three years:>)”
Hi ex-van. My wife and I sold in 2005 a condo, because we too felt there would be a bust, and still do. Sold to early obviously BUT we are much happier because we no longer have uncertainty hanging over us. Sleep way better then when we were owners. Renting in a Tower we were interested in now, and glad we didn’t buy; no realitor would have mentioned we are above the main ambulance dispatch on Richards! I have found you have no idea what a building is going to actually be like unless you live there,(neighbours,strata etc) open houses are pointless acts of staging. We will wait for a major correction which will come soon, in the meantime enjoying freedom of NO commitment to a place!
When that happens we will rent in a building we would like to buy in first!
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The Pope Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 6:26 am
They live on credit.
“I see debt people”
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Tony Danza Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 7:40 am
ex-vancouverite said:
Yeah, we’re doing that too – 5th wheel, going south a few months in the winter but keeping the rental townhouse.
Hey I can’t afford a 5th wheel or a rental townhouse! Are you rubbing my nose in your “success”? A**wipe!
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condofever Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Was out at Flo in Richmond recently. 2 months after completion, very few have moved in, and now lots are now up for sale.
Not surprised about units being for sale, but very, very few taking residence. How long can they hold on?
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Krrish2 Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 8:56 am
“Probably explains why I’ve been wrong about a housing bust for the last three years”
Absolutely Right,most of bears insist their logic to take over on others without any appropriate knowledge of facts- so the bubble theme is based on desire not on facts.
In case of STRATAMAN he sold in 2005- in his own words “too early”and still happy-I don’t think your peace of mind can roll you over here on campaign for 3 years and for rest of your future.
In case of DRACHEN he’s been on this blogs since 2005 and he don’t even know the deposit for new projects prior to OCT 2007 was 25% and after that it’s 20%.
In case of BDK the link and theory he represented is totally against his desire it’s like why don’t you read your on post and find the answer.
In case of BBY”but I do save over $2K/month”
do you know how much is average prices are going up per month?.Your money have no value unless you put that on work otherwise it’s like “a wanted unemployeement”
Homes are a basic necessity so homes are rewarded to aquire the benefit of inflation any other investment or just sitting on egs is like there is no base under investment so when the market ever crash only people with homes can stand tall because you can still use it without having to pay rent,a permanent nest for family a gift to our childrens.
“I see debt people”
On Rock Solid Plate Forms “the best place on earth”
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bdk Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Krissh, I schooled your stupid little brain the other day but it must have been to confusing for you so here’s the executive summary (for the labourer)
1.If Vancouver is the best place on earth then it becomes the #1 city on the terrorists list to attack.
2. Natural disasters can happen here, such as a massive earthquake.
3.NAFTA means we don’t get to keep all our water.
4.There are more than 2 buildings completing downtown before the Olympics.
5.Vancouver has tourism which means SARS could land here at any time, or perhaps the rich foreign investor variant.
6.You can’t be serious that paying double for a mortgage will allow you to stand after a crash, seriously no one could possibly think something so stupid.
7.Even with $400k down on a $500k unit it is cheaper to rent a similar unit right now and have money left over to feed your children and leave your family something.
So after all the businesses close and you go work at wal mart, you’ll be standing tall because you’ll be in foreclosure.
Why don’t you go buy more at todays prices? If it’s such a good investment?
You must be joking, there is no way someone could really be as stupid as you pretend to be, silly girl.
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dingus Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Translated krrsh’s comment to chinese and back. I thought it might “undo” what the poster-who-is-krrsh is doing to the language.
Didn’t work, but it’s not like it makes less sense.
_____________
mostly the bear persisted their logic took over control in other people does not have a matter suitable knowledge therefore the bubble theme basis desire was not in the fact.
Sells in him in 2005- is happy I in he word “early” and in the STRATAMAN situation not too to think your peace of mind will possibly roll you to campaign for 3 years in this with for the surplus yours future.
In the DRACHEN situation he has been in this blogs since 2005 and he did not even know deposit for new project before 2007 October will be 25% and that it later is 20%.
He represents it in the BDK situation is elephant’s link and the theory completely is opposed he desire why you don’t read you to post with the discovery answer.
I preserve in the BBY “but situation finished $2K/month”
you to know how many isn’t the average price rises each month? Your the money has the value only if you invest that in to work it otherwise are look like “one unemployeement” which wants are the basic necessity therefore the family is rewarded or sits to the aquire inflation advantage other
investments in egs is likely there is does not have the base under the investment so when the market collapsed the only people to be able once to stand by the family high because you could still use it not to have to have to pay rent, permanent nest for family gift to our childrens.
“I see debtor” to form the “best place in the rock solid plate in Earth”
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Krrish2 Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 9:42 am
1.If Vancouver is the best place on earth then it becomes the #1 city on the terrorists list to attack.
NOT TRUE,We have very very polite attitudes and foriegn policy even the war is US led not us,we have miner but no threat at all.
2.Could be possible but very less destructive compare to this……
Population 2007
California 36,457,549 more than Canada
BC-2008=04,413,973
Imagine if that many pop have to hit the street at one time who can easily exit.
“3.NAFTA means we don’t get to keep all our water”
but still not enough supply to feed the huge pop and their future supply has been sold in advance.
4.As far as I know your link show all the most of total include completed projects……
Elan and Raffles are completed as far as i know this TV towers are going to complete 2009 and woodward also 2009, ritz carlton in 2011, hudson done ,donovan may be end of this year or next year. so you should put the proper data by number of unit and number of completion date other than this means you like to over take on some one for nothing.
6 is your opinion you are entitled to post on your door and back of your car or flag it.
7 you are absolutely right but that does not mean market will crash because there are other people who are taking care of the market.
for the rest your mentality gone to eat grass now you can’t even see the difference between male and female,Whats going on? stop playing fosball just watch relexing movie in holly like screen you MR coolharbour.
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Drachen Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 10:31 am
“In case of DRACHEN he’s been on this blogs since 2005 and he don’t even know the deposit for new projects prior to OCT 2007 was 25% and after that it’s 20%.”
Yeah, I don’t know because I don’t CARE. The actual percentage is irrelevant to my point in any case. But trust a moron like you to pick apart the irrelevant and avoid the relevant parts of the argument.
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Anonymous Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Drachen must have special powers to have been here since 2005 since this blog was started in June of 2006.
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bdk Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 10:58 am
So according to Krissh the terrorists won’t hit here because Vancouverites are polite?, despite seeing us as gluttonous western pigs they’ll stop to differentiate?
How does an uneducated suicide bomber learn the difference between Canadians and Americans if there are no schools to teach them?
Right they’ll know we’re different, just like George Bush was able to differentiate Afghanistan as opposed to Iraq and soon Iran….
Are you saying New Yorkers aren’t polite people?
Is this why New York was attacked? Did it have anything to do with New York being a WORLD TRADE CENTER?
Isn’t Vancouver just as big a world trade centre?
If no then why are the prices higher in Vancouver and how could they possibly go up any higher?
How do you know New Yorkers aren’t polite?
Have you been to New York?
Were people rude to you?
Do your views represent all terrorists?
Are you a terrorist yourself seeking a safe place to hide out?
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Drachen Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 11:02 am
He means around the blog scene. You should know that anything coming from Krrish requires interpretation into english.
Most of the traffic from VHB moved here after VHB moved away so it has sort of become a reincarnation for the old VHB blog.
And yes. I do have special powers.
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Drachen Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 11:18 am
BDK
There’s really no point in trying to reason with him. He’s immune to any form of intelligent argument. Just pretend you’re visiting the special ed class, you won’t be far off the mark.
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Tony Danza Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Krissh/SATV, What’s your motivation for posting your [nonsensical and incessant] rants? Just wondering, what’s your MO?
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krrish2 Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Tony,
That was simple answer to his question and he has gone out of sense when ever bears get busted they just start screeming in un recognized manners.we are polite means Canadian “foreign policy” not me or my city thanks.
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Tony Danza Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Krisshh can you answer my question? If not then STFU!
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Drachen Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Tony
You’re trying to ascribe motivation to an inanimate object.
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Tony Danza Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
I know it’s frustrating but I am genuinely curious…
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krrish2 Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
tony,
our arguments represent us as bears and bulls our comments are expresion of our feeling and understanding the markets strength.
you think you will force the market to fall as your pocket does not handel this cost.
My motivation is to provide strong hands to save the market from bearish desire because i think there are lots of people who can handel the monthly payments.
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Drachen Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
“to save the market from bearish desire”
If the market his hanging on your ability to defeat the bearish arguments it’s in worse shape than I thought.
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gonebabygone Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
“My motivation is to provide strong hands to save the market from bearish desire because i think there are lots of people who can handel the monthly payments.”
Bwhahahahahahaa!
Translation: “C’mon! Jump in this warm sh*t bath with me! I’ve got a tall glass of kool-aid you can drink while enjoying it!”
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cashisking Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
krrish2 he’s playing Katie from Horton Hears a Who.
“In my world ….”
Me thinks he doth protest too much … Why do you all keep biting … he’s on our side.
Can’t wait to buy two houses when the dust settles.