IMF: 25% chance of global recession

Look at these chicken littles at the International Monetary Fund:

The world has a 25 per cent chance of tipping into recession this year and next, and countries in trouble should pull out all their policy stops to make sure it doesn’t materialize, the International Monetary Fund says.

The global expansion which has endured for years is now at risk because the U.S. slowdown will likely stick around well into 2009, the IMF projects in its latest global economic forecast.

Canada’s economy will muddle through, however, with sub-par growth, the forecast suggests.

β€œThe global expansion is losing speed in the face of a major financial crisis,” the IMF warns in its global economic outlook, released Wednesday morning in time for this weekend’s high-profile meeting of economic policy makers in Washington.

You know what you need to do. Go out there and buy more stuff! Take on more debt, get all the credit you can and together we can keep this thing from falling off the rails. Why are you just sitting there? Get out there and buy something!!

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disbelief
disbelief
12 years ago

So the mortgage brokers have been a major player in the run up in RE prices in Van… He explained to me that there are so many applications that they can't possibly check them the way they should… "Get in and you will gain equity fast"

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

"Hopefully our government won’t bail out the babies after the bottom falls out…"

I suspect it will be the people who filed fraudulent mortgage applications who cry the loudest. Personally I hope the government has a full investigation and makes those people realize that they were committing a serious crime and in some instances (those with multiple cases) they should see the inside of a jail.

"honest mortgage broker"

Don't use those words around a computer in Vancouver! It's logic circuits might explode.

disbelief
disbelief
12 years ago

We need to need to hear from an honest mortgage broker on how they are fudging the numbers to allow for these huge mortgages they are not fundamental. This is what is leading to the meltdown in the US and the bubble we are currently experiencing. I have a story that my mortgage broker told me… I was unemployed and did have 25% to put

down on an E van home but no income other than EI. He said no prolem we can say your self employed and they probably won't even ask for any info. If they do I will help you abtain some documents.

disbelief
disbelief
12 years ago

Hopefully our government won't bail out the babies after the bottom falls out…

Jack T
Jack T
12 years ago

I have no love in my heart for the various salespeople that have pumped up this market, but in the end I believe there's only one person to blame: the buyers. These are the people that will get burned in the crash, just as it should be.

Tony Danza
Tony Danza
12 years ago

Dream on.

I just thought it would be fun, hence the plea for a pro bono legal team.

patriotz
patriotz
12 years ago

I would love to launch a class action lawsuit against this POS when things come tumbling down in Vancouver.

Dream on. None of the dot-com cheerleaders were ever successfully sued either in Canada or the US, and these were people who were actually employed by the securities industry and had some legally defined responsibilities, not some radio talk jockey.

Remember also that realtors are fiduciaries of the seller, not the buyer (always), so don't expect anyone to get a pound of flesh from them either.

ProblemBear
12 years ago

Somebody should give Bill Good a kleenex so he can wipe his face off!

Anonymous
Anonymous
12 years ago

Me,

For sale signs are on back order. Please be patient, it's coming.

Warren
Warren
12 years ago

Sorry my US/Canada growth forecasts are for 2008.

Warren
Warren
12 years ago

Hi guys,

I'm well aware of the developing world's growth potential. What is not mentioned is that China's 12% (or whatever) growth rate due to the US growing at 3%. so what happens when the US craps out? Canada's growth in 09 is forecast at 1.2%, US is somewhere in the negatives. I agree that using the USD as the world's economic scale really messes with the numbers when the USD has a big value swing.

Bill Good is quoting his boyfriend Rennie on the radio right now. News flash from Bill: Downtown is for the rich only, prices will never go down. East Van prices will continue to rise. Vancouver is world class.

Michael Levy (CKNW's financial guy) is more realistic. He didn't make a specific prediction, but mentioned that we are in an unsustainable period of growth.

paul
12 years ago

RE: chilliwak housing

30% drop in sales…

http://www.canada.com/chilliwacktimes/news/story….

jesse
jesse
12 years ago

"Canada is established and running near our maximum potential so only incremental gains can be made, unlike China or India where growth can go much higher"

This is the "catch-up logic" of developing economies. It certainly begs the question how recessions should be measured in developing economies, and developed ones for that matter. Terms like "growth recession" are thrown around for example.

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Warren

"Hell Canada thinks its in great shape if we are getting 3%."

That would be why they call so many countries the "developing world". Canada is established and running near our maximum potential so only incremental gains can be made, unlike China or India where growth can go much higher because they have so little to begin with.

On an aside, if GDP is measured in American dollars and the USD is falling, doesn't that mean that everyone's growth is going up even if they're standing still (except China of course)? What's the measuring stick for GDP growth?

Tony Danza
Tony Danza
12 years ago

No worries, ask Bill Good and Co.

I would love to launch a class action lawsuit against this POS when things come tumbling down in Vancouver. Any lawyers trolling here with some spare time and not enough pro bono hours booked?

Warren
Warren
12 years ago

Thanks digi. So a recession locally is negative growth, but the world only has to fall below 3%? Hell Canada thinks its in great shape if we are getting 3%.

Nice note about BC Hydro… 18,000 sounds like a lot, but we'd need a number from 2000 or so to compare.

Not Me Not You
Not Me Not You
12 years ago

there are very few “for sale” signs out. I wonder if realtors are holding back to stop a panic – or maybe the sellers just want to keep it quiet?

No to option A, Yes to option B. If they put a sign up there would be a stampede of buyers beating a path to their door and it would take a long time to interview them all to see who was worthy. The sellers are thus pre-selecting clients who have taken the time to do research (by using the Internet and searching MLS). They are thus (a) serious and (b) know that the property is good value. This will maximize the selling price and the sellers won't be bothered by the merely curious and other real estate voyeurs.

On second thought, I think realtors are trying to prevent panic.

me
me
12 years ago

Anecdotal musing

searched through my neighbourhood mls listings today – between the 7400 block and the 8000 block of my street, there are now 11 houses for sale, plus another 4 under construction

It's funny though – there are very few "for sale" signs out. I wonder if realtors are holding back to stop a panic – or maybe the sellers just want to keep it quiet?

Anonymous
Anonymous
12 years ago

On Bill Good show yesterday guest mentioned BC Hydro figure of 18,000 vacant condos in Vancouver. Very curious about this. Did anyone hear of this figure? I don't know of any real estimate of specuvestor involvement, just guesses and speculation. I should think BC Hydro figures to be pretty accurate and unbiased.

Swirlyman
Swirlyman
12 years ago

There's always a conspiratorial explanation somewhere…

Maybe, TPTB, the Illuminati, whoever those ultra-powerful, ultra-rich folks are, have decided that Vancouver! Yes, Vancouver, is going to be the capital of the NWO, and while real estate values fall everywhere else on the planet, values in Vancouver will continue to climb as the rich and powerful will be drawn here in preparation for Vancouver's new role in the world.

Well it makes as much sense as a lot of other bull%$@# arguments I've heard…

patriotz
patriotz
12 years ago

Since securities are only worth what the market is willing to pay for them, the firms keep the securities on their books and struggle to determine their actual value.

Er, I think that should be "struggle to conceal their actual value".

bdk
bdk
12 years ago

Do you feel you are adding value to the real estate site by repeatedly posting unwanted spam abut gold or are you somehow trying to stop the price from dropping?

I'm not sure if I'm the only one here but I tend to read the links from the site and any relevant links and ignore the spam.

http://www.eslteachersboard.com/cgi-bin/tutors/in

Michael Randallbard
12 years ago

"Randallbard, get a grip on yourself, will you?"

I can't for religious reason πŸ˜‰

Michael Randallbard
12 years ago

Hey Paul…..How ya goin man?

Ok here's more proof that Vancouver is NOT a world class city…….home prices in almost all world class cities are now dropping, so there…that proves that Vancouver doesn't matter…yet! See? No one gives a rats ass about this place. It's truly a backwater to most people.

I met a clothing designer visiting Vancouver today who has a store on Lexington (NYC) and in East Hampton and South Hampton and Palm beach. I asked him how he likes Vancouver…he said fine. I then said: 'did you know that people here think Vancouver is a world class city?' He smiled and laughed a bit. I said "exactly".