IMF: 25% chance of global recession
Look at these chicken littles at the International Monetary Fund:
The world has a 25 per cent chance of tipping into recession this year and next, and countries in trouble should pull out all their policy stops to make sure it doesn’t materialize, the International Monetary Fund says.
The global expansion which has endured for years is now at risk because the U.S. slowdown will likely stick around well into 2009, the IMF projects in its latest global economic forecast.
Canada’s economy will muddle through, however, with sub-par growth, the forecast suggests.
“The global expansion is losing speed in the face of a major financial crisis,” the IMF warns in its global economic outlook, released Wednesday morning in time for this weekend’s high-profile meeting of economic policy makers in Washington.
You know what you need to do. Go out there and buy more stuff! Take on more debt, get all the credit you can and together we can keep this thing from falling off the rails. Why are you just sitting there? Get out there and buy something!!
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April 9th, 2008 at 11:46 am
April 9th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ … 3796.story
That works out to $143 for each person on earth. You can send your share to me and I’ll make sure it gets taken care of.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
The theory goes that losses on mortgage-backed securities caused the markets to seize up, making it impossible for banks and other investors to sell those securities. That can slow liquidity to a trickle elsewhere as credit dries up, stalling the entire financial system.
“There is the basic problem that banks have been reluctant to post these write-downs,” said Michael Englund, the principal director at consultant Action Economics. “The market has gone from underappreciating risk to being hypersensitive to risk.”
Since securities are only worth what the market is willing to pay for them, the firms keep the securities on their books and struggle to determine their actual value. The losses estimated by the IMF are not necessarily absolute if the market rebounds.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Just have each country buy as many condos in downtown Vancouver as they can and then sell them for a big profit
Voila!
No more global recession
And then the world leaders can all go to a hotel lounge on Davie Street and laugh about it.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
You have an internet connection and can obviously spell, why not look it up yourself? Report back to us when you’re done.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
“The IMF also says that all that money that never really existed that went into overpriced real estate and helocs will result in a 1 trillion dollar loss to the global economy:”
I think that’s being conservative, considering there’s approximately $300-500 billion at current values in GVRD residential real estate. Even if prices decline only 20% in 20 or so cities that have a larger residential market than Vancouver that will total over a trillion. London ALONE could lose a half trillion or more if the market tanks.
8 million people. Say 4 per household to be conservative so 2,000,000.
Avg price $770,000
1,540,000,000,000
So if it drops 30% that’s a half trillion.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
The IMF defines a global recession as an annual global growth rate of 3% or less. I believe they mention that in the article.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
You can ignore my posts if you don’t like them or you can STFU.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Also you knew I had all the facts and I’m probably being quite conservative with saying 25% and just because your lunch didn’t kill you TODAY it might still kill you tomorrow.
God I hate morons.
April 9th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
What changed? We know it isn’t income, and immigration was higher back then, plus there was an NBA team back then too..
I’m starting to think you’re just pretending to be stupid.
April 9th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
.
We should all keep in mind that organisations like the IMF and the FED have a responsibility to calm market jitters and prevent panic. When they dare to release numbers like 25% you can bet that it’s really more like 75%.
I’d be more inclined to believe the dire warnings from economists like Nouriel Roubini, David Rosenberg, Carlos Pelaez and Stephen Roach.
(back to the previous topic)
I’m amazed by the number of fools seeking consolation that our market is safe from the rigors of subprime lending.
Subprime lending may have exacerbated the market downturn in the US, but it did not cause it.
It’s the other way around.
Subprime lending would not have been a problem if markets continued trend up forever.
Well gues what, US markets collapsed because they were overpriced, and that’s what caused the subprime mess, the looming global recession and the innevitable crash in Vancouver.
April 9th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
“Subprime lending would not have been a problem if markets continued trend up forever”
Exactly. As many have said, the subprime fallout in the US is a symptom, not a cause, of the RE price correction.
April 9th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Why is this big news? A 25% chance of anything is pretty low, they’re predicting that theres triple the chance that a global recession will not happen.
Funny thing, though, a year ago Alan ‘Bubbles’ Greenspam predicted only a 1/3 chance of a recession happening. Now he freely admits there is one.
These boyz make plans, they have a Big Club - and you ain’t in it.
April 9th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
.
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.
.
,
Did anyone hear the Bill Good show this am, apparently there will be no correction in Vancouver?
The unbiased experts on the show all agreed. Vancouver is not in a bubble.
One of them said Vancouver is special- it’s like San Francisco, the other said there are bidding wars, and the other stated “leading” economist predict a 4% annual appreciation until 2020, one of the experts went on to say that Vancouver stayed strong even during increasing interest rates.
No worries, ask Bill Good and Co.
April 9th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Gold will trade again between $1024 and $1030.
Gold is headed to $1650 and that is conservative.
It would be fortunate if the dollar actually stops its decline at .5200, a price objective given to you when the dollar was trading above one hundred on the USDX.”
Jim Sinclair
April 9th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
franko
IMF+FED+CNBC=PPT
PPT = the death of free market “capitalism”….and GOOD RIDDANCE
April 9th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Unbiased? He’s a horses ass if there ever was one. Thinking people can see right through the propaganda the stations demand he put across. Speaking of thinking people, most have already left Vancouver to the hordes of idiots and illiterates that now make up our population base. An old axiom for political parties is to retain power keep bringing in immigrants who can’t speak English and therefore are obedient consumers that think that BC is their oyster.
The Ultimate EVIL, the person who destroyed Vancouver
April 9th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Did you happen to catch who the unbiased real estate experts were…then again I suppose it doesn’t matter
BTW, I chuckle at the 4% figure - isn’t that minimum annual increase required such that the incremental capital gains offsets the negative cash flow of those negative cash flow investment condos - I haven’t done the mathmatics recently. I think this is the really big concern for all those experts - the flood of speculative condos on the market once the paek is declared.
April 9th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
THE BEST POLICY IN LIFE IS..
April 9th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Re-diculous:
It was a classic! Bull Good, oops, I mean Bill, pitched some soft ones, the phone lines were stacked, and the “experts” even explained how in the US they have subprime and we don’t.
And then for good measure one of the “experts” mentioned there is no double digit interest rate on the horizon.
The Show ended by Bull Good asking the experts to reaffirm there is no bottom to fall out.
A classic!
If anyone visits Rob Chipman’s blog could you ask for me if he wrote the script?
PS: please do tell him I asked nicely,
April 9th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Good lord enough with the gold spam already. We get it, you like gold.
Damn right.
Randallbard, get a grip on yourself, will you?
April 9th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Ok here’s more proof that Vancouver is NOT a world class city…….home prices in almost all world class cities are now dropping, so there…that proves that Vancouver doesn’t matter…yet! See? No one gives a rats ass about this place. It’s truly a backwater to most people.
I met a clothing designer visiting Vancouver today who has a store on Lexington (NYC) and in East Hampton and South Hampton and Palm beach. I asked him how he likes Vancouver…he said fine. I then said: ‘did you know that people here think Vancouver is a world class city?’ He smiled and laughed a bit. I said “exactly”.
April 9th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
I can’t for religious reason
April 9th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
I’m not sure if I’m the only one here but I tend to read the links from the site and any relevant links and ignore the spam.
http://www.eslteachersboard.com/cgi-bin … ;read=6761
April 9th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Er, I think that should be “struggle to conceal their actual value”.
April 9th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Maybe, TPTB, the Illuminati, whoever those ultra-powerful, ultra-rich folks are, have decided that Vancouver! Yes, Vancouver, is going to be the capital of the NWO, and while real estate values fall everywhere else on the planet, values in Vancouver will continue to climb as the rich and powerful will be drawn here in preparation for Vancouver’s new role in the world.
Well it makes as much sense as a lot of other bull%$@# arguments I’ve heard…
April 9th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
April 9th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
bdk….are you a homosexual by any chance or just a stalker who obsesses over pictures of men?
April 9th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
searched through my neighbourhood mls listings today - between the 7400 block and the 8000 block of my street, there are now 11 houses for sale, plus another 4 under construction
It’s funny though - there are very few “for sale” signs out. I wonder if realtors are holding back to stop a panic - or maybe the sellers just want to keep it quiet?
April 9th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
No to option A, Yes to option B. If they put a sign up there would be a stampede of buyers beating a path to their door and it would take a long time to interview them all to see who was worthy. The sellers are thus pre-selecting clients who have taken the time to do research (by using the Internet and searching MLS). They are thus (a) serious and (b) know that the property is good value. This will maximize the selling price and the sellers won’t be bothered by the merely curious and other real estate voyeurs.
On second thought, I think realtors are trying to prevent panic.
April 10th, 2008 at 5:40 am
Nice note about BC Hydro… 18,000 sounds like a lot, but we’d need a number from 2000 or so to compare.
April 10th, 2008 at 7:48 am
I would love to launch a class action lawsuit against this POS when things come tumbling down in Vancouver. Any lawyers trolling here with some spare time and not enough pro bono hours booked?
April 10th, 2008 at 8:38 am
“Hell Canada thinks its in great shape if we are getting 3%.”
That would be why they call so many countries the “developing world”. Canada is established and running near our maximum potential so only incremental gains can be made, unlike China or India where growth can go much higher because they have so little to begin with.
On an aside, if GDP is measured in American dollars and the USD is falling, doesn’t that mean that everyone’s growth is going up even if they’re standing still (except China of course)? What’s the measuring stick for GDP growth?
April 10th, 2008 at 9:02 am
This is the “catch-up logic” of developing economies. It certainly begs the question how recessions should be measured in developing economies, and developed ones for that matter. Terms like “growth recession” are thrown around for example.
April 10th, 2008 at 9:23 am
30% drop in sales…
http://www.canada.com/chilliwacktimes/n … a139&k=159