IMF: 25% chance of global recession
Look at these chicken littles at the International Monetary Fund:
The world has a 25 per cent chance of tipping into recession this year and next, and countries in trouble should pull out all their policy stops to make sure it doesn’t materialize, the International Monetary Fund says.
The global expansion which has endured for years is now at risk because the U.S. slowdown will likely stick around well into 2009, the IMF projects in its latest global economic forecast.
Canada’s economy will muddle through, however, with sub-par growth, the forecast suggests.
“The global expansion is losing speed in the face of a major financial crisis,” the IMF warns in its global economic outlook, released Wednesday morning in time for this weekend’s high-profile meeting of economic policy makers in Washington.
You know what you need to do. Go out there and buy more stuff! Take on more debt, get all the credit you can and together we can keep this thing from falling off the rails. Why are you just sitting there? Get out there and buy something!!
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April 9th, 2008 at 11:46 am
When was the last global recession? Was the Asian problem in the 90s enough to push the world into the crapper?
April 9th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I continue to be confused by the solutions proposed by central banks and the IMF. At the risk of generalizing, the US has had a very prolonged period of overconsumption, and the money well is getting tapped out. A long term structural adjustment will have to occur and simply trying to partially refill the money well will not alleviate the need for the adjustment.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
The IMF also says that all that money that never really existed that went into overpriced real estate and helocs will result in a 1 trillion dollar loss to the global economy:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/.....3796.story
That works out to $143 for each person on earth. You can send your share to me and I’ll make sure it gets taken care of.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Boy! I’m glad I live in Vancouver and not on the planet!
April 9th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
What was the chance % of a recession last year?
April 9th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Clarke, they’re aiming for a ‘soft landing’ rather than a sharp crash and global financial crisis. From moldcity’s link:
The theory goes that losses on mortgage-backed securities caused the markets to seize up, making it impossible for banks and other investors to sell those securities. That can slow liquidity to a trickle elsewhere as credit dries up, stalling the entire financial system.
“There is the basic problem that banks have been reluctant to post these write-downs,” said Michael Englund, the principal director at consultant Action Economics. “The market has gone from underappreciating risk to being hypersensitive to risk.”
Since securities are only worth what the market is willing to pay for them, the firms keep the securities on their books and struggle to determine their actual value. The losses estimated by the IMF are not necessarily absolute if the market rebounds.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
I don’t think there was acknowledgment of any chance of global recession last year from the IMF.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
The IMF should listen to the advice on this board and there’d be no problem.
Just have each country buy as many condos in downtown Vancouver as they can and then sell them for a big profit
Voila!
No more global recession
And then the world leaders can all go to a hotel lounge on Davie Street and laugh about it.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
What was the chance % of a recession last year?
You have an internet connection and can obviously spell, why not look it up yourself? Report back to us when you’re done.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Warren, wikipedia to the rescue:
April 9th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Moldcity
“The IMF also says that all that money that never really existed that went into overpriced real estate and helocs will result in a 1 trillion dollar loss to the global economy:”
I think that’s being conservative, considering there’s approximately $300-500 billion at current values in GVRD residential real estate. Even if prices decline only 20% in 20 or so cities that have a larger residential market than Vancouver that will total over a trillion. London ALONE could lose a half trillion or more if the market tanks.
8 million people. Say 4 per household to be conservative so 2,000,000.
Avg price $770,000
1,540,000,000,000
So if it drops 30% that’s a half trillion.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Tony, do you hate all people or just those who can spell? Why get all grumpy with someone who just asks a simple question? Its not like they stole your car or shat in your lunch. Chill out dude.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
There is no commonly accepted definition of a global recession.
The IMF defines a global recession as an annual global growth rate of 3% or less. I believe they mention that in the article.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Tonail Dang-za, who shat in your lunch? All I did was ask him/her to find the data and report back.
You can ignore my posts if you don’t like them or you can STFU.
April 9th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Why is this big news? A 25% chance of anything is pretty low, they’re predicting that theres triple the chance that a global recession will not happen.
April 9th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Ahh I see Dosh, so if I told you that if you ate your regular lunch today there’s a 25% chance you’d die before the day was out (and I had the data to prove it) you’d just go ahead and eat as usual? Because it’s a pretty low chance right?
Also you knew I had all the facts and I’m probably being quite conservative with saying 25% and just because your lunch didn’t kill you TODAY it might still kill you tomorrow.
God I hate morons.
April 9th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Dosh, if Vancouver is so different than the rest of the world explain to me why people weren’t buying ten units for $110,000 each ten years ago (new units at residences on georgia) and had to wait until 2008 to buy them for $390k.
What changed? We know it isn’t income, and immigration was higher back then, plus there was an NBA team back then too..
I’m starting to think you’re just pretending to be stupid.
April 9th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
PBS explains the crisis
April 9th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Isn’t the IMF supposed to be securing the NOC list or saving the world or something? I didn’t know they dealt in economics…
April 9th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
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We should all keep in mind that organisations like the IMF and the FED have a responsibility to calm market jitters and prevent panic. When they dare to release numbers like 25% you can bet that it’s really more like 75%.
I’d be more inclined to believe the dire warnings from economists like Nouriel Roubini, David Rosenberg, Carlos Pelaez and Stephen Roach.
(back to the previous topic)
I’m amazed by the number of fools seeking consolation that our market is safe from the rigors of subprime lending.
Subprime lending may have exacerbated the market downturn in the US, but it did not cause it.
It’s the other way around.
Subprime lending would not have been a problem if markets continued trend up forever.
Well gues what, US markets collapsed because they were overpriced, and that’s what caused the subprime mess, the looming global recession and the innevitable crash in Vancouver.
April 9th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
franko
“Subprime lending would not have been a problem if markets continued trend up forever”
Exactly. As many have said, the subprime fallout in the US is a symptom, not a cause, of the RE price correction.
ex-vancouveriste Says:
April 9th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
[...] maybe not. Stephen Reees weighs in on the IMF pronouncement. As does everybody’s favourite condo contrarian, who reminds us of the fix that probably won’t work next time a recession comes a [...]
April 9th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
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Why is this big news? A 25% chance of anything is pretty low, they’re predicting that theres triple the chance that a global recession will not happen.
Funny thing, though, a year ago Alan ‘Bubbles’ Greenspam predicted only a 1/3 chance of a recession happening. Now he freely admits there is one.
These boyz make plans, they have a Big Club – and you ain’t in it.
April 9th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
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Did anyone hear the Bill Good show this am, apparently there will be no correction in Vancouver?
The unbiased experts on the show all agreed. Vancouver is not in a bubble.
One of them said Vancouver is special- it’s like San Francisco, the other said there are bidding wars, and the other stated “leading” economist predict a 4% annual appreciation until 2020, one of the experts went on to say that Vancouver stayed strong even during increasing interest rates.
No worries, ask Bill Good and Co.
April 9th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
“The price objective on Crude is $125 to $128 per barrel and that is only for now.
Gold will trade again between $1024 and $1030.
Gold is headed to $1650 and that is conservative.
It would be fortunate if the dollar actually stops its decline at .5200, a price objective given to you when the dollar was trading above one hundred on the USDX.”
Jim Sinclair
April 9th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
“Rescue from the current crises will not come from the IMF, nor from an international financial system ordered and managed by international institutions. Our much-touted ‘international financial system’ is now an emperor with no clothes.”
April 9th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
“We should all keep in mind that organisations like the IMF and the FED have a responsibility to calm market jitters and prevent panic.”
franko
IMF+FED+CNBC=PPT
PPT = the death of free market “capitalism”….and GOOD RIDDANCE
April 9th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Rich West Sells Gold; Asian Nations Sell Dollars?
April 9th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Bill Good? LOLOLOL
Unbiased? He’s a horses ass if there ever was one. Thinking people can see right through the propaganda the stations demand he put across. Speaking of thinking people, most have already left Vancouver to the hordes of idiots and illiterates that now make up our population base. An old axiom for political parties is to retain power keep bringing in immigrants who can’t speak English and therefore are obedient consumers that think that BC is their oyster.
The Ultimate EVIL, the person who destroyed Vancouver
April 9th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
-A-
Did you happen to catch who the unbiased real estate experts were…then again I suppose it doesn’t matter
BTW, I chuckle at the 4% figure – isn’t that minimum annual increase required such that the incremental capital gains offsets the negative cash flow of those negative cash flow investment condos – I haven’t done the mathmatics recently. I think this is the really big concern for all those experts – the flood of speculative condos on the market once the paek is declared.
April 9th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Re-diculous…..there aren’t any unbiased “experts” in the local media. You should know to take what you hear on TV as manipulation, just the same as a commercial, and with a grain of salt. Do you suppose that after the incessant commercials we watch, that the news isn’t manipulated as well? Did you know that many house price stories on Global and CTV News are actually infomercials or propaganda planted there and paid for by the building and real estate industry?
THE BEST POLICY IN LIFE IS..
April 9th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
A href=”http://www.safehaven.com/article-9927.htm”>A Golden Bottom
April 9th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
A GOLDEN BOTTOM
April 9th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Good lord enough with the gold spam already. We get it, you like gold.
April 9th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Re-diculous:
It was a classic! Bull Good, oops, I mean Bill, pitched some soft ones, the phone lines were stacked, and the “experts” even explained how in the US they have subprime and we don’t.
And then for good measure one of the “experts” mentioned there is no double digit interest rate on the horizon.
The Show ended by Bull Good asking the experts to reaffirm there is no bottom to fall out.
A classic!
If anyone visits Rob Chipman’s blog could you ask for me if he wrote the script?
PS: please do tell him I asked nicely,
April 9th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
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Good lord enough with the gold spam already. We get it, you like gold.
Damn right.
Randallbard, get a grip on yourself, will you?
April 9th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Hey Paul…..How ya goin man?
Ok here’s more proof that Vancouver is NOT a world class city…….home prices in almost all world class cities are now dropping, so there…that proves that Vancouver doesn’t matter…yet! See? No one gives a rats ass about this place. It’s truly a backwater to most people.
I met a clothing designer visiting Vancouver today who has a store on Lexington (NYC) and in East Hampton and South Hampton and Palm beach. I asked him how he likes Vancouver…he said fine. I then said: ‘did you know that people here think Vancouver is a world class city?’ He smiled and laughed a bit. I said “exactly”.
April 9th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
“Randallbard, get a grip on yourself, will you?”
I can’t for religious reason
April 9th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Do you feel you are adding value to the real estate site by repeatedly posting unwanted spam abut gold or are you somehow trying to stop the price from dropping?
I’m not sure if I’m the only one here but I tend to read the links from the site and any relevant links and ignore the spam.
http://www.eslteachersboard.co.....;read=6761
April 9th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Since securities are only worth what the market is willing to pay for them, the firms keep the securities on their books and struggle to determine their actual value.
Er, I think that should be “struggle to conceal their actual value”.
April 9th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
There’s always a conspiratorial explanation somewhere…
Maybe, TPTB, the Illuminati, whoever those ultra-powerful, ultra-rich folks are, have decided that Vancouver! Yes, Vancouver, is going to be the capital of the NWO, and while real estate values fall everywhere else on the planet, values in Vancouver will continue to climb as the rich and powerful will be drawn here in preparation for Vancouver’s new role in the world.
Well it makes as much sense as a lot of other bull%$@# arguments I’ve heard…
April 9th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
On Bill Good show yesterday guest mentioned BC Hydro figure of 18,000 vacant condos in Vancouver. Very curious about this. Did anyone hear of this figure? I don’t know of any real estimate of specuvestor involvement, just guesses and speculation. I should think BC Hydro figures to be pretty accurate and unbiased.
April 9th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
He’s absolutely right. I have been neglecting SILVER so for all the readers here who have enough brains to protect their wealth by owning precious metals instead of Vancouver overpriced grow-op shitboxes in a shitty dirty ugly crime ridden excuse for a “world class” city then read this article
bdk….are you a homosexual by any chance or just a stalker who obsesses over pictures of men?
April 9th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Anecdotal musing
searched through my neighbourhood mls listings today – between the 7400 block and the 8000 block of my street, there are now 11 houses for sale, plus another 4 under construction
It’s funny though – there are very few “for sale” signs out. I wonder if realtors are holding back to stop a panic – or maybe the sellers just want to keep it quiet?
April 9th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
there are very few “for sale” signs out. I wonder if realtors are holding back to stop a panic – or maybe the sellers just want to keep it quiet?
No to option A, Yes to option B. If they put a sign up there would be a stampede of buyers beating a path to their door and it would take a long time to interview them all to see who was worthy. The sellers are thus pre-selecting clients who have taken the time to do research (by using the Internet and searching MLS). They are thus (a) serious and (b) know that the property is good value. This will maximize the selling price and the sellers won’t be bothered by the merely curious and other real estate voyeurs.
On second thought, I think realtors are trying to prevent panic.
April 10th, 2008 at 5:40 am
Thanks digi. So a recession locally is negative growth, but the world only has to fall below 3%? Hell Canada thinks its in great shape if we are getting 3%.
Nice note about BC Hydro… 18,000 sounds like a lot, but we’d need a number from 2000 or so to compare.
April 10th, 2008 at 7:48 am
No worries, ask Bill Good and Co.
I would love to launch a class action lawsuit against this POS when things come tumbling down in Vancouver. Any lawyers trolling here with some spare time and not enough pro bono hours booked?
April 10th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Warren
“Hell Canada thinks its in great shape if we are getting 3%.”
That would be why they call so many countries the “developing world”. Canada is established and running near our maximum potential so only incremental gains can be made, unlike China or India where growth can go much higher because they have so little to begin with.
On an aside, if GDP is measured in American dollars and the USD is falling, doesn’t that mean that everyone’s growth is going up even if they’re standing still (except China of course)? What’s the measuring stick for GDP growth?
April 10th, 2008 at 9:02 am
“Canada is established and running near our maximum potential so only incremental gains can be made, unlike China or India where growth can go much higher”
This is the “catch-up logic” of developing economies. It certainly begs the question how recessions should be measured in developing economies, and developed ones for that matter. Terms like “growth recession” are thrown around for example.
April 10th, 2008 at 9:23 am
RE: chilliwak housing
30% drop in sales…
http://www.canada.com/chilliwa.....&k=159
April 10th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Hi guys,
I’m well aware of the developing world’s growth potential. What is not mentioned is that China’s 12% (or whatever) growth rate due to the US growing at 3%. so what happens when the US craps out? Canada’s growth in 09 is forecast at 1.2%, US is somewhere in the negatives. I agree that using the USD as the world’s economic scale really messes with the numbers when the USD has a big value swing.
Bill Good is quoting his boyfriend Rennie on the radio right now. News flash from Bill: Downtown is for the rich only, prices will never go down. East Van prices will continue to rise. Vancouver is world class.
Michael Levy (CKNW’s financial guy) is more realistic. He didn’t make a specific prediction, but mentioned that we are in an unsustainable period of growth.
April 10th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Sorry my US/Canada growth forecasts are for 2008.
April 10th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Me,
For sale signs are on back order. Please be patient, it’s coming.
April 10th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Somebody should give Bill Good a kleenex so he can wipe his face off!
April 10th, 2008 at 11:52 am
I would love to launch a class action lawsuit against this POS when things come tumbling down in Vancouver.
Dream on. None of the dot-com cheerleaders were ever successfully sued either in Canada or the US, and these were people who were actually employed by the securities industry and had some legally defined responsibilities, not some radio talk jockey.
Remember also that realtors are fiduciaries of the seller, not the buyer (always), so don’t expect anyone to get a pound of flesh from them either.
April 10th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Dream on.
I just thought it would be fun, hence the plea for a pro bono legal team.
April 10th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
I have no love in my heart for the various salespeople that have pumped up this market, but in the end I believe there’s only one person to blame: the buyers. These are the people that will get burned in the crash, just as it should be.
April 10th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Hopefully our government won’t bail out the babies after the bottom falls out…
April 10th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
We need to need to hear from an honest mortgage broker on how they are fudging the numbers to allow for these huge mortgages they are not fundamental. This is what is leading to the meltdown in the US and the bubble we are currently experiencing. I have a story that my mortgage broker told me… I was unemployed and did have 25% to put
down on an E van home but no income other than EI. He said no prolem we can say your self employed and they probably won’t even ask for any info. If they do I will help you abtain some documents.
April 11th, 2008 at 7:41 am
“Hopefully our government won’t bail out the babies after the bottom falls out…”
I suspect it will be the people who filed fraudulent mortgage applications who cry the loudest. Personally I hope the government has a full investigation and makes those people realize that they were committing a serious crime and in some instances (those with multiple cases) they should see the inside of a jail.
“honest mortgage broker”
Don’t use those words around a computer in Vancouver! It’s logic circuits might explode.
April 12th, 2008 at 8:19 am
So the mortgage brokers have been a major player in the run up in RE prices in Van… He explained to me that there are so many applications that they can’t possibly check them the way they should… “Get in and you will gain equity fast”