Comments on: Vancouver Sun: at least a year till ‘collapse’

By: awum

awum — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 11:49:44 +0000

Oh you flat market theorists, you make me laugh! You say you expect that the market can continue on a "soft landing" course after 7 years of record gains, at a time when we have reached historic lows of affordability. So, you expect that the market can count on a continuous supply of new buyers ready to commit 50% and more of their net salary to purchase teeny tiny homes on 40-year mortgages, when no-one expects them to see an real price appreciation for the next few years. You actually expect them to kiss goodbye thousands monthly on interest with no expectation of gain to make up the gap between renting and owning costs -- even when CNN reminds them on a daily basis the kind of risk they are taking. Really, you guys. You're so nutty!

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By: sheeplessinvancouver

sheeplessinvancouver — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 23:32:22 +0000

"What is the design/expected life of a high rise condo building?" That depends on the quality of construction. There are high rises in the West End that have been there since the '60s and buildings in European cities that have lasted for centuries. "Is there value left after the building collapses?" Yes. Each strata unit has a share in the common property which includes the land. There's something called an entitlement upon destruction that outlines what share each strata lot owns. "Do all the owners have to agree on what to do with the land?" A decision like this would require a 3/4 vote of those present (in person or by proxy) at the meeting where the vote was held. "Does the 500 sqft owner get as big a say as the 1500 sqft penthouse owner?" Yes, assuming they each own one unit. You get one vote per unit. Generally land values increase over time while building values decrease. This applies to condos, townhouses and single family homes. Some of those houses sitting on million dollar lots on the West Side are worth less than $10,000. However, in last year's assessment the building values went up in some cases. I'd guess it has something to do with higher construction costs.

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By: beatstreet

beatstreet — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:31:26 +0000

Average tax filer income has jumped quite a bit in Vancouver over the last 5 years. In 1999 it was $30,830 while in 2003 (latest stats) it was $47,358 according to CRA. That surprised me and likely accounts for a good deal of the real estate jump. However, time will tell if that kind of income increase can continue. Income can fall too………. …in 1993 it was $37,130 and 5 years later was $29,664. Hmm….Boom and Bust?

See: http://www.gvrd.bc.ca/growth/keyfacts/avincpertxf…

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By: bdk

bdk — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:23:15 +0000

http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/viewtopic.php?t=…

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By: TIME

TIME — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:12:06 +0000

but how can you make 50 working at same job-the case discribe housing market prices justify as rate of pay has been tripled so the market turn around tripled now....... "for the market to drop @50%to 100% rates of pay must get back from $50.00 to $13.00 per hour and from $25.00 to $7.45 per hour"-TIME

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By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:26:05 +0000

if friend start his carrier at 7.45 and making 25 now. it means nothing. Everybody make far less money in the beginning of their carrier.

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By: Krrish2

Krrish2 — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 10:50:59 +0000

Anonymous 2008-04-23 10:07:55 A friend start working @7.45 per an hour in 1995 he is now making $25.00 per an hour almost tripled. A friend start working @$13 per hour in 2001 is making now $50.00 per an hours more than tripled. People who have paid off their mortgage since 2001 or further but still making highest rates of pay are owning multiple properties. Population difference is huge between 2001 and 2008. Hello?Hello??Hello??? Are you still there?

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By: gonebabygone

gonebabygone — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 10:38:19 +0000

Off topic but relevant…

Think speculation on housing is dangerous and unethical for the greater good? How about speculation on food?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti…

Just when you think you'd seen the apex of greed in the land of plenty….

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By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 10:07:55 +0000

Anti-Pesto, And all other weak bears. Please don't simply see it as 50% or 60% crash. You will just get lost in your own feelings, thinking that 50% drop is a large number and it won't happen. Even I ask myself, 50% is a large drop, could this happen. YES, it will happen. To understand that a 50% correction is very likely and is going happen, just think about it in terms of going back to 2001 prices. How much were salaries and wages then, how much is it now? What was interest rate then, what is it now? It's as simple as that. Was there a fundamental change from 2001 till now. Why weren't average homes $700K back then, what makes you think it will sustain now. If you understand that there is not much difference, you will realize that R/E is very likely going to have a 50% crash in price. I just filed my tax return. I make pretty good money. Well into the six figures and I could only save $10K per year. If you buy a place for $600K and the market corrects by 20%, that's $120K. That's 12 years of my savings. Oh wait, $10K was based on rent. If I assumed I had a mortgage, that would be 40 years of saving. Losing 40 years of savings in one pop is pretty risky to me.

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By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 08:33:20 +0000

"What’s with your quote from the comment thread? " At first I just thought it was really odd that the person made the statement that it's cheaper to purchase because of low vacancy rate. Now I realize that they must be living in Bizarro Vancouver or Vancouver Washington.

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