http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine … -own.thtml ]]> http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/04/whats-your-savings-rate.html#comment-16821 bdk Wed, 30 Apr 2008 21:25:38 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/04/whats-your-savings-rate.html#comment-16821 Anonymous/SATV "expression of his feeling about the way thing should be" Exactly! it was his feeling, it was not fact. As for your repeated comments about Garth Turner, he has always said that boomers who have most of their money tied up in their houses should consider selling. He is an MP and makes a lot more than your typical warehouse worker, he'll also collect a large pension for life. He is not saying "I'm an idiot and I bought a condo at the peak and think everyone else should buy at the peak so they can be like me" you're confusing yourself with him. Do not get confused about who you are as you will never be an MP and will never be able to buy a house thirty or forty years ago like he did. His points apply here. There are hundreds of land rich and cash poor baby boomers in Vancouver west who have 90% ,or more, of their equity in their house. You never want to have all your eggs in one basket. To dumb it down for you: Imagine if you had $1.5 million dollars solely in tech stock ,that you bought at it's peak price in early 2000, because some warehouse worker told you that it would never go down, would this have been a good idea? Wouldn't it have been better to have bought a house and some bonds too? Or some art. Or the best investment Rare Stamps! Posting under different names won't fool anyone. There is no one else on here who writes like a 7 year old girl. Anonymous/SATV

“expression of his feeling about the way thing should be”

Exactly! it was his feeling, it was not fact.

As for your repeated comments about Garth Turner, he has always said that boomers who have most of their money tied up in their houses should consider selling. He is an MP and makes a lot more than your typical warehouse worker, he’ll also collect a large pension for life.

He is not saying “I’m an idiot and I bought a condo at the peak and think everyone else should buy at the peak so they can be like me” you’re confusing yourself with him.
Do not get confused about who you are as you will never be an MP and will never be able to buy a house thirty or forty years ago like he did. His points apply here. There are hundreds of land rich and cash poor baby boomers in Vancouver west who have 90% ,or more, of their equity in their house. You never want to have all your eggs in one basket.

To dumb it down for you:
Imagine if you had $1.5 million dollars solely in tech stock ,that you bought at it’s peak price in early 2000, because some warehouse worker told you that it would never go down, would this have been a good idea?
Wouldn’t it have been better to have bought a house and some bonds too? Or some art. Or the best investment
Rare Stamps!

Posting under different names won’t fool anyone. There is no one else on here who writes like a 7 year old girl.

so his question was in flash back to change around as what should have done to be wise.

2.In school if I wrote an essay without doing any research and cited all sorts of my own “facts” which were obviously made up and then for the bibliography wrote “why don’t you give me your tax returns and i’ll show you” it would not have passed.

Tom Vu’s reaction proved he was making it up.

well said-t.hu is very smart,he did not spend a minute to figure out what the hell is going on here.

Christine, I have to agree that I find many comments here pretty insulting. The frustration with many long-time commenters here is that many of the arguments used to promote the “bull” case are filled with half-truths and in some cases blatantly incorrect information and logic. I think most commenters on this blog don’t show up just to insult someone (though maybe there are those that do) and have a genuine interest in dispelling some of the myths floating around.

I have found some of the best comments come across as curt and agressive but that’s because these commenters are smart, have done their research, and have answered the same questions over and over again for years now. I don’t think it’s anything personal; just be prepared to defend your position against some significant and well thought critique. I’ve made a few comments/arguments here that were shot down in no time flat. I sucked it up and learned from it.

I am a bear about where this market is headed, but I don’t need to validate my position by making all homeowners feel like overextended idiots.

Well, that just says it all, doesn’t it? Confronted with numbers the troll scampers away in defeat to lick its wounds.

http://tinyurl.com/3qn8g4

didn’t think so

Bud - prices in NYC - even in Manhattan - cycle up and down and even crash on a very regular basis. A typical decade has swings of 25%. You can look this stuff up. Because of Manhattan’s history and uniqueness, the data is better than for most other locales.

My favorite stat is that inflation-adjusted total return for commercial real estate in Manhattan between 1899 and 1999 is…

…wait for it…

negative 30%.

t.fu = tom vu

looks like bdk was the only one to sniff it out.
a lot of baby bears i guess, this gig is age dependant.

If you can’t even make up, er, answer what basic industry you’re in that brought you to Vancouver then you should take a deep breath and come up with a plausible scenario before getting mad for being called out as a BullS*itter.

Life on the internet can be brutal. Thanks for the comments.

“it’s a simple fact that a typical condo in NYC in 1990 more than doubled in price by 1996.”

Comparisons to NYC have been made here before. The main difference is the high prevalence of high salaries in Manhattan. Certainly not everyone who works there earns high wages but the ones living in Manhattan likely do and the ones that don’t earn as much commute from other cheaper boroughs and cities.

The future can change but what I know now is that the total sum of salaries in Vancouver cannot support such a large ground swell in prices. There are pockets of affluence in the city due to differences in income but I just don’t see the current distribution of prices compared to the distribution of incomes being sustainable unless prices drop or incomes rise.

I think this will be my last post here. This place is hostile to anyone but those who cling to their doomsday fantasies. Not interesting.

Bye!

How did the immigration process go?
Were you able to get a work permit right away?
Did your company sponsor you?
Or are you just independently wealthy?
If yes then how do you like paying the non resident tax?
Do you prefer paying higher taxes and higher prices to be in Vancouver versus New York? What industry could you work in here that pays more than New York?
If you really exist you’ll have no problem answering these questions.

Crabman, you can quote all the indexes and numbers you want, but, it’s a simple fact that a typical condo in NYC in 1990 more than doubled in price by 1996. I was there, I know.

Glad you got in while you did. NYC rents and salaries are high enough to better justify the high prices. I don’t see rents in Vanhattan keeping pace yet.

Here is the Case-Shiller index for New York:
1990: 80.89
1991: 74.59
1992: 74.59
1993: 75.54
1994: 76.61
1995: 78.28
1996: 78.63

Exactly what similarities do you see to the current RE market in Vancouver?

The current CS Index for NYC is at 200, compared to the baseline of 100 in 2000. The Vancouver HPI is currently at 253 for condos vs. the baseline of 100 in 2001. So in this decade, Vancouver has gone up more than NYC, and New York is currently 7% below its peak and falling.

I am getting an MBA. When I graduate I will leave Vancouver to make more money elsewhere. Many of my classmates feel the same way. Does that sound like New York to you?

And instead of taking the money and running, you put more on the table.

Come back this time next year and tell us how you’re doing.