Appreciation fantasy
May 14th 2011 – Vancouver house prices have risen to a new record high for the month of April bringing the REBGV benchmark home price to $3,432,285. Another record was broken last month as condo prices in the downtown core actually surpassed the SFH benchmark price in Vancouver. A 5 year old 450 square foot condo in downtown Vancouver is now worth $3,458,998.
Vancouver Mayor Cam Muir has just announced plans for a mass-awards ceremony to award the ‘bravery and faith’ of Vancouver real estate investors.
“These are the people who have really kept this economy going while the rest of the globe stumbled” Muir explains. “Not so long ago there was a real danger of all the naysayers drowning out the strong and reasoned voices of condo investors. I recall the dark spring of 2008 when condo prices actually fell a small fraction and some assumed we would follow the US into the dark abyss of depreciation. Of course as we all know now that was the perfect buying opportunity”
Many give at least partial credit for Vancouver’s eternally booming real estate market to the ‘minimum rent increase’ act that was brought into law just under two years ago.
Many residents spoke out against this law at the time claiming ‘rent is determined by what people can pay’. Some believed that requiring a minimum rental rate increase of 20% per year for all rental units would wreck our economy as people moved away. Clearly this has not happened as the increases have only improved our position on the world stage. City planner Robn Adamache explains:
“Just like Prada or Gucci, smart people know that the more you pay for something the more it’s worth”
The awards ceremony will be held June 30th at the new BC place stadium. There will be free hot dogs for the kids and a special performance by Billy Ray Cyrus.
May 14th, 2008 at 8:57 am 1
On the flip side, if we ignore common sense and only look at numbers… from the past couple months' inventory rise we can extrapolate that in 2011, listings will be over 150,000 units. Of course, this is a "leveling-off" period for prices, which will still continue to appreciate at a slower rate.
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May 14th, 2008 at 9:19 am 2
i should really get in to the market now.
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May 14th, 2008 at 9:28 am 3
I think that scenario is entirely possible. Other news headlines at the same time would be "Canada very close to surpassing the Zimbabwe dollar" "Mugabe entertains mayor of Vancouver"
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May 14th, 2008 at 9:32 am 4
Hahahahaha! Awesome post. You made my morning
Thanks for the hearty laugh….Perfect pitch. But why is there still a small spot of fear in my heart that this market may indeed be just that stupid?
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May 14th, 2008 at 9:58 am 5
Obviously this will happen! The action is downtown! There are cafe's!
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May 14th, 2008 at 10:27 am 6
it should read "free hotdogs for the kid (singular)", no? Can't see anyone other then Rennie being able to afford kids in that scenario…
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May 14th, 2008 at 10:32 am 7
Ah Pope.
This post is just one more reason I adore you.
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May 14th, 2008 at 10:36 am 8
It's unlikely Rennie's going to be having any more kids now that he's out of the closet. They could adopt.
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May 14th, 2008 at 11:17 am 9
or buy one. if houses are that costly, there will be lots of people selling babies to afford to live here.
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May 14th, 2008 at 11:32 am 10
Vancouver Mayor Cam Muir
LOL!
i love satire!
Some believed that requiring a minimum rental rate increase of 20% per year for all rental units would wreck our economy as people moved away.
otherwise known as the mandatory bunkbed clause.
who knew that shipping containers on False Creek barges would sell as housing?
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May 14th, 2008 at 12:11 pm 11
See! I tole you! Why you no risten to me? Luk at all dees gurlz! You guys still loser, now I worth multimillions of dollar and you still rent! I raise rent on you! Minimum 25% because downtown is place to be! Should have listen in 2009 when it only cost $1.5M for 1 bedroom condo! You loser live in mom basement!
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May 14th, 2008 at 12:24 pm 12
heh, nice attempt at a krrish impersonation, but alas, it was too coherent…try harder next time.
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May 14th, 2008 at 12:25 pm 13
I remember seeing the same graph a few years ago, problem was it came to be.
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May 14th, 2008 at 12:27 pm 14
Apparently Strata Fees have become an issue in other cities where the bubble has burst.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/business/15cond…
Just talked to a realtor who I've known for decades and he said it's getting ugly, that the sellers haven't figured out they need to lower their asking prices and the few buyers out there are low balling like crazy, he mostly works in the westside and yaletown.
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May 14th, 2008 at 12:44 pm 15
"I remember seeing the same graph a few years ago, problem was it came to be."
What a great point. If only Pope had only shown this graph 2 years ago I'd have saved a lot of time reading blogs.
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May 14th, 2008 at 12:54 pm 16
from the G&M:
http://tinyurl.com/5385lu
Homes market flooded by sellers
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May 14th, 2008 at 12:57 pm 17
Hi Mr Mayor…..I recently found enough money for petrol to drive to downtown Vancouver from warm sunny Richmond and found it to be pouring rain when I arrived. I was feeling a little gloomy and so I drove around looking for a coffee shop for a caffeine drug boost and though I had no problem finding one as I drove, 20 in fact, I couldn't find a park for the car so I drove back to Richmond and called a cab thinking I would go back downtown when I suddenly discovered a coffee shop 100 yards from my house. I sat outside in the sun and looked to the north and saw dark ugly clouds.
Now I know why this idiot Michael Randallbard used to suggest that theme for your city…what was it? Oh yes…
INVITE THE WORLD
TO GO HOME.
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May 14th, 2008 at 1:00 pm 18
MORE BIG TROUBLE
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May 14th, 2008 at 1:55 pm 19
Apparently Strata Fees have become an issue in other cities where the bubble has burst.
This could all be quite ugly, especially in those condos that aren't so green but are "well lit" (i.e. the developer put in lots of lights to make it look bright to make a good impression).
Electricity bills are going in one direction only. While everyone needs to heat their house, only condo owners have the obligation to pay for brightly lit halls, foyers and exteriors.
Perhaps windmills on top of the some of the taller condo developments might help reduce the monthly overhead?
Then again, perhaps its different here and Vancouver can continue to justify price-to-rent ratios that are beyond the peak of the US bubble.
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May 14th, 2008 at 2:01 pm 20
I remember seeing the same graph a few years ago, problem was it came to be.
My chart predicting the $3 million average condo price by 2010 came to be? How could you know that.. unless… Hey you're from the future! I'm honored! I'm curious, who wins the US election?
Also some winning lotto ticket numbers would come in handy..
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May 14th, 2008 at 2:10 pm 21
who knew that shipping containers on False Creek barges would sell as housing?
You must be mistaken, the 'four bed homes' made out of discarded shipping containers are in whistler. It's the place to be.
I'll be posting the depreciation fantasy tomorrow morning.
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May 14th, 2008 at 2:11 pm 22
Re: Homes market flooded by sellers
I am glad we don't have subprime in Canada. Only 40 year mortgages. Another brilliant policy move from Ottawa to help ensure things are different here.
Flaherty should follow up by brining in 100 year mortgages, to give the market another "boost" into the Olympics.
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May 14th, 2008 at 2:26 pm 23
How appropriate for this blog that today's posting is pure fiction.
Fits right in here.
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May 14th, 2008 at 2:27 pm 24
Strataman:
Any comment on today's link from bdk regarding increased strata fees? I appreciated your thoughtful response to my previous strata fee question, but perhaps this needs further consideration and discussion.
bdk said: Apparently Strata Fees have become an issue in other cities where the bubble has burst.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/business/15cond…
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May 14th, 2008 at 2:31 pm 25
Oh f*ck, I laughed so hard I spilled my coffee! Hilarious. Mayor Cam Muir.
Well done.
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May 14th, 2008 at 2:43 pm 26
nyc, you don't mean to infer that the other stuff posted on this site is TRUE do you?!? I mean come on, sales dropping off in Vancouver?!? Condo prices dropping in May?! 1000 new listings in a week!?
Thats so outlandish there's NO WAY it could be true, not in the greatest city on earth!
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May 14th, 2008 at 2:58 pm 27
dogpile on NYC! and maybe a wedgie?
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:01 pm 28
nyc, here's some reading from the non-fiction section. Courtesy VHB.
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:03 pm 29
How appropriate for this blog that today’s posting is pure fiction.
Fits right in here.
You mean here as in your post? I don't get it, is this Realtard agent humour?
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:10 pm 30
nah, he's just being an asshat.
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:12 pm 31
that's assclown to you dingus
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:16 pm 32
Why them's fightin'words!
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:23 pm 33
Tony,Jesse,
Recently I have notice this guy luc has nabed vhb and mohican and finally tony called him troll to save bears from the bulls,When luc had argue vhb never come to explain things,
So here is question for jesse if some one like to give rant to vhb who is going to respond because graph are not your property not even vhb's and you just have post that link without explaining the scene.What to response to structure without legs and arms do you like to waste valuable time,either you post a comment based on what you think is making a sense or you don't post that bs again.
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:32 pm 34
waste valuable time
That about sums up your comment. I'd ask if you actually had a point, but I know the answer would be just as unintelligible.
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:36 pm 35
"but I know the answer"
post the answer please?
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:38 pm 36
Strataman?
Any response to bdk's article link regarding housing crash induced strata fee increases?
2008-05-14 12:27:12
Apparently Strata Fees have become an issue in other cities where the bubble has burst.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/business/15cond…
I appreciated your thoughtful comments to my previous question regarding strata fees, but perhaps this deserves further consideration. Anything special about the Vancouver situation that would prevent what the article describes is happening in Miami?
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:49 pm 37
Just walked around downtown this afternoon. Holy crap there's a lot of excess condo supply getting built right now! I can't wait until they hit the market! Hey krrish and NYC, what will you do when your properties are selling for 35-50% off?
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May 14th, 2008 at 3:51 pm 38
"either you post a comment based on what you think is making a sense or you don’t post that bs again."
WTF? I gave credit and a citation. Anything posted on the internet is free to be cited with proper credit which I did. Do your own research if you like. The data is real and not "bs", whatever that means, but you can choose to disagree.
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May 14th, 2008 at 4:01 pm 39
Krissh thinks we can't tell that it's him when he posts under anonymous. As if there are two semi illiterate borderline retarded trolls.
My source told me Krissh has been trying to sell his condo but can't find a buyer.
My advice is simple sell it for whatever you can get today because it's going to drop for decades to come!
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May 14th, 2008 at 4:24 pm 40
BBY "Anything special about the Vancouver situation that would prevent what the article describes is happening in Miami?"
Not really as this is already happening here, but like the property market is behind the US. Our percentage of strata fees in arrears is growing, something that was non existent last year is now around 7%. A majority of Strata councils are doing little or no maintenance except cosmetics, and those councils are typically dominated by speculators. There are some really good strata's where the council is pro-active and the majority are either homeowners living there or long term investors who have no interest in making a quick buck. The rule of thumb I use is; if the strata is dominated by absentee landlords then likely it is a bad building or will be one fairly soon. If all the strata members live there and especially if they have lived there for > 3 years then you probably are looking at a good building. Simple rule is if there has been no maintenance fee increases equivalent to 3-5% on an annual basis you likely are moving into a building with speculators who want to make a quick buck and could care less if the building falls apart later. If the capital contingency is inadequate, (many buildings) steer clear. Lower then normal maintenance fees is a symbol of bad management on the stratas part, as they are just deferring the cost to the next buyer. Would you buy a vehicle from me if I said "hey this thing is maintenance free I just change the oil and wash it every month" or would you buy from me if I showed you regular service checks from a reputable dealer?
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May 14th, 2008 at 5:01 pm 41
Thanx strataman. You said"Our percentage of strata fees in arrears is growing, something that was non existent last year is now around 7%."
So, 2007 had near 0% strata fees in arrears, now in 2008 we have 7%. In Vancouver? This is quite enlightening, as it should indicate the amount of fiscally distressed owners. Would be wonderful if you monitored this for the Van RE Bear Blogosphere. I'd sure like to see a graph of this to watch for a trend. I wonder who the delinquents are? Owner tenants, amateur landlords, or blatant flippers.
Anyhow, kewl data point to consider. Thanx.
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May 14th, 2008 at 5:10 pm 42
Prices in Vancouver are still cheap, I can sell my Bentley with New York plates and buy a condo. I don't need so many cars as my Coal Harbour condo is close to cafes and a short wobble to work.
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May 14th, 2008 at 5:18 pm 43
I love the likes of nyc when they resort to insults arising from their frustration with that little voice inside their head telling them: "You are screwed buddy, you should not have bought this overpriced piece of crap…"
Noname
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May 14th, 2008 at 5:37 pm 44
BBY "I wonder who the delinquents are" So far owner tenants are the majority. Usually a young couple over their heads in mortgage payments. I would suspect at this stage of the flipper game those types (flippers) will keep up their strata fees as they are selling (almost 17000of them!), and a delinquent strata fee (which would show up to a prospective buyer) does not suit them in their power flipper role, they would however probably default on the residence they live in however!
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May 14th, 2008 at 6:33 pm 45
Crabman,Bdk,
I have no plan to sell my properties other than just one unit in july to make a room to buy house later on.Anybody selling their property in fear or for high prices this is what they going to lose
1.Ownership title
2.Status as first time buyers
3.Fee to Realtors
4.Lower Interest Rates.
5.Brand new mortgage term
6.Start from Interest Rates again instead of principle
What are they going to get for all this mess?
TENENCY
If you think prices going to fall I will be singing Annie are you OK -a smooth homeowner from micheal jackson but the reality that will bite your a## is that PRICES ARE GOING UP decade after decades!
BDK? CRABMAN?
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May 14th, 2008 at 7:00 pm 46
What are they going to get for all this mess?
1. Half the monthly payments (or less).
2. Someone else fixes problems.
3. Get to laugh at Krrish when prices crash.
4. Save Hundreds of Thousands of dollars.
5. Get your pick of 10's of thousands of condo inventory in the near future.
6. Free s/s appliance and hardwood floor upgrades from desperate sellers.
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May 14th, 2008 at 7:05 pm 47
Great! Who's invited? Do we need to buy tickets for the ceremony? More hot dogs. That is all I have been eating the past year because that is all I can afford. I bought Summer of 2008 because it was a great time to buy. Can't pass up a free meal though.
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May 14th, 2008 at 7:23 pm 48
"1. Half the monthly payments (or less)".
Interest rates are lower because home prices are higher to afford interest rates will be up in your case down in my case.
"2. Someone else fixes problems."
There is no land to accomodate too many hl people government must drive people to somewhere else in case some one can't afford to rent here
"3. Get to laugh at Krrish when prices crash".
won't even catch the falling monkeys a## in your case it will be fun what hole you have dig where no one seems to fit(again in your case)
"5. Get your pick of 10’s of thousands of condo inventory in the near future".
by signing up contract with management to keep the building clean as CARETAKER
"6. Free s/s appliance and hardwood floor upgrades from desperate sellers".
Dreams are yours you can have it all by paying or just dream it.
"4. Save Hundreds of Thousands of dollars".
ONLY IF YOU BUY TODAY
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May 14th, 2008 at 7:38 pm 49
Krrish, you are too funny! Thanks for entertaining us while we wait for the (99% certain) crash that is starting as we type!
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May 14th, 2008 at 7:42 pm 50
yours welcome crabman
good luck 2 all the friends
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May 14th, 2008 at 7:49 pm 51
Flaherty should follow up by brining in 100 year mortgages, to give the market another “boost” into the Olympics.
They've already gone farther than that – they insure interest-only mortgages, which are infinite amortization:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/moloin/moloin_01…
Anyone who thinks we don't have toxic mortgages in Canada, just read the above. Thank you Mr. Flaherty for letting the Canadian taxpayer hold the bag.
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May 14th, 2008 at 8:13 pm 52
Interest rates are lower because home prices are higher to afford interest rates will be up in your case down in my case.
Do you have a thirty year fixed mortgage SATV? Oh, you don't? Well interest rates are at a historical low, so no chance they'll ever be increased in the future right? Don't worry you'll be bankrupt well before then after losing your sweet box stacker job.
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May 14th, 2008 at 9:20 pm 53
Make a graph of las vegas prices, I'll show that to a agent,maybe they'll give me a house as I can show them with bear math that the house will be worth negative money in only a few years.
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May 14th, 2008 at 9:26 pm 54
Will we make 17000 Friday? 16714 today from Paul absolutely sick sales for merry May!
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May 14th, 2008 at 9:43 pm 55
Why Canada hasn't gotten hit by the subprime mortgage bug:
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/Spring/Article.as…
Discuss.
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May 14th, 2008 at 10:14 pm 56
Why Canada hasn’t gotten hit by the subprime mortgage bug:
Anyone who puts less than 20% down on the home can't qualify for mortgage insurance by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp
Oh really. Someone tell the webmaster at CMHC:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/moloin/moloin_01…
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May 14th, 2008 at 11:49 pm 57
That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever read. Mortgage insurance is only for borrowers who have less than 20% down. If you have 20% or more you don't need it in the first place.
And looking at the whole article, it's yet another attempt to blame the US crash on subprime lending. That's not the cause of the crash. The cause of the crash is that prices got too damn high relative to rents and incomes. It's that simple. Subprime lending was of course one of the factors leading to inflated prices – but it's the level of prices that matter, not how they got there.
And let's point out, again, that Calgary and Edmonton have fallen faster from the peak than any US city except Miami. Explain that one.
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May 14th, 2008 at 7:11 pm 58
[...] May 2008 · No Comments This from bdk at Vancouver Condo Info 2008-05-14 12:27:12 [...]
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May 15th, 2008 at 5:25 am 59
Oh c'mon krrrrish
We all know the real reason you won't sell one of your properties… oh ad that's plural, is it?
It's 'cause your mom needs somewhere to give her clients those infamous "Shanghai extra-lucky double happy ending" massages she's so famous for. plus she'd have to pack up all her…. uh….. equipment. Let's face it, the ol' girl is getting on in years. Hauling that swinging bamboo chair and all those bottle of …. uh… "lotion" around can't be good for her back!
I've heard it's all she ca do to take on two hundred clients a day, and how's the ol' girl supposed to pay the mortgage, what with her son being such a disappointment?
Hey did you figure out where I'm living these days? Don't worry buddy, you're not the first guy to find me irresistible.
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May 15th, 2008 at 7:02 am 60
What a good experience with brand name lubricants,position,and toys.no wonder your monkey friend want to run,how long have you been doing it? and oh please share your experience with more open thoughts we will be ohm ahm aha.
PINGBACK you forgot to add the above comment in your mother fucking anecdotal bs.
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May 15th, 2008 at 7:36 am 61
Why Canada hasn’t gotten hit by the subprime mortgage bug
Hmmmm, no contact info at the end of the article to let the editor or the writer know that the article is full of deception and outright lies. Could this be an advertorial? I wonder….
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May 15th, 2008 at 8:19 am 62
It's confirmed Krissh's Mum is selling their one and only condo. Too bad it's going to sell for less than they paid!
My source was right!
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May 15th, 2008 at 9:19 am 63
Krrish buddy,
Are you telling me you've been stalking me and the bf when we're out running?
Wow dude, you don't wanna piss him off. He's a *very* strong guy.
That kind of explains why he's been telling me some creepy guy has been following him around. Dude, best to back off for real. He'll rip your head right off your neck if he suspects you've been folling him around, and it kind of sounds like you are.
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May 15th, 2008 at 9:20 am 64
"My source told me Krissh has been trying to sell his condo but can’t find a buyer".
Crabman,Bdk,
I have no plan to sell my properties other than just one unit in july to make a room to buy house
"My source was right!"
wrong!also he has informed that july sale to reductimate last year
Reductimate are you there?
"I have no plan to sell my properties"
is selling their one and only condo-wrong!
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May 15th, 2008 at 9:29 am 65
why does he have to follow your 23 year old son, is your monkey a realtor?
why does he have to follow you either do you want him to fix your grey hair?tug? and fatty hips?
are you willing to disscuss some real estate in this chatroom?rather than mum,bf,and his sleepy head and burned out holes?
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May 15th, 2008 at 9:38 am 66
patriotz: I've been trying to get that CMHC link you posted above (the infinite amortization one) to load for the last 45 minutes or so, and it just keeps timing out.
I really want to read about this! Anyone have a cached/mirrored/alternate version?
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May 15th, 2008 at 9:45 am 67
Wow "anon", if you think hiding behnd that name is fooling anyone you're wrong.
So, it sounds like you really are stalking me. I can't figure out how else you'd know the colour of my hair.
What's up with that? I mean, if you have several condos (as you implied) shouldn't you be… you know.. managing properties?
Hey Pope, sorry for cluttering up your blog with this stuff but maybe your readers should know there's a stalker among them.
Wow…. proof positive some of the bulls aren't that mentally stable.
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May 15th, 2008 at 9:57 am 68
Hey Scullboy, when did it admit to stalking you? I missed it.
It shows that it's even dumber than we give it credit for by posting under anonymous.
Who knows which KFC location Krissh works at?
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May 15th, 2008 at 10:02 am 69
gotta love this stalker who brought this puck out back to ice where miss fire fly shooting and striking a pose like madonna and singing…….
la-lala-la
Last night i dreamt of san pedro
Just like i'd never gone, i knew the song
A young girl with eyes like the desert
It all seems like yesterday, not far away
Tropical the island breeze
All of nature wild and free
This is where i long to be
La isla bonita
And when the samba played
The sun would set so high
Ring through my ears and sting my eyes
Your spanish lullaby la-lala-la la la
ho ho oh ho your spanish lullaby….
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May 15th, 2008 at 10:06 am 70
BDK:
If you flip up through "anon" posts here, krrsh implies
1) he's seen me and the bf out running
2) He knows my hair colour is grey (though I would argue silver is a better description.
3) A few days ago he talked about going to my old apartment
I can't figure out why he'd bother. I'm really not that interesting.
I'll guess he works at Davie St. Out of curiousity, where's his mum's condo?
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May 15th, 2008 at 10:10 am 71
Wow…. I just had this image of krrish in Thai-ladyboy-as-madonna drag out in the middle of a hockey rink, singing and voguing.
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May 15th, 2008 at 10:14 am 72
scullboy I think you're just reading something into his insane rambling. Remember you posted your name and facebook link here not too long ago, so its possible he's seen your picture without leaving the keyboard in his cave. Can't we just ignore the jackass?
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