GDP still hasn`t gone negative.

That's the biggie. Recession now officially overdue. What if it doesn't come after all?

Wow, I thought the whole idea of living downtown was to save on car expenses. One nice thing about housing crashes is the property rich will lose the most wealth. All housing will fall roughly the same amount, so we will see some major pain for those who will lose a million or so in equity. Meanwhile, at the Quattro in Surrey: "At least half the buyers intend to live in the suites they purchased," he said. http://tinyurl.com/3zbowo And out in Abby, new leaky townhouses at Junction Creek: http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rfs/668683520.h… "Avoiding buying in this townhouse complex, JUNCTION CREEK, at all costs. I did and I got ripped off royally. They leak, they are supposed to be new, they were never repaired properly and now some of them have burned down! The developer and the realtor DO NOT STAND BEHIND THEIR PRODUCTS!… Read more »

I should be appalled by the violation of his rights and I usually oppose the War on Drugs, but I can't make myself sympathetic to this clown. I mean, how can we hassle China when suburban jerks in Canada are this wasteful of electricity: http://tinyurl.com/6nn2ec "I'm now on medication to keep calm because my temper was getting up," he said. "I was on sleeping pills for a while because I couldn't sleep. It's affected my health." He said his electricity costs were high because his home has a 40-by-20-foot electrically heated outdoor swimming pool, an electric sauna and "three kids who don't turn off a light and leave TVs playing all over the house and wear clothes once, then put them through the wash." ———– Get ready for the sob story articles when guys like this are foreclosed on. How… Read more »

Also don’t forget that the loonie soared in value vs the USD in a relatively short period of time with no fundamental explanation, it could plummet just as quickly.

I think there is a very compelling reason why the loonie has moved towards par – rising oil and gas prices. Energy products are our largest export group (at least in Feb) and I believe there is a good correlation between changes in energy prices and our exchange rate.

And, according to a story tonight on bloomberg, the commodity "bubble" is not quite over yet thanks to electrical shortages in producing nations.

Given the huge capital that these countries need to build their productive infrastructure, I think Bob's buyers are going to have some competition for mortgage money over the next year or two. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&a…

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20551

Do you think the economics of shipping oil etc to China or anywhere other than the US make sense at historical prices? Well yes. We've been shipping coal to Japan and Korea for decades now, and its value/shipping cost is way lower than for oil. Anyway I think the US will be buying all our oil exports for the foreseeable future, even if their total consumption drops. They'd much rather keep buying from us and reduce their imports from Venezuela and the Middle East, for reasons that I think are obvious. Also don’t forget that the loonie soared in value vs the USD in a relatively short period of time with no fundamental explanation, it could plummet just as quickly. The fundamental explanation is oil. And anyway, a lower CAD is positive for exports, as everyone knows. The problem is… Read more »

Tony, You forgot to transfer jobs from residential construction to non residential construction projects where construction industries are heading towards 2020. Bdk, The sun did not add your comment because you are not a DJ. Alexcanuck, I have heard at chipos site that Mish,Mohican,and Garth Turner are home owners,They are small agent for banks they advice people to invest in bounds or stocks where in case of leverage people are having 100% hair cuts but in housing sectors every one is able to survive even in a case of crash. misanthropic curmudgeon, "I haven’t been a perma-bear, but I’m genuinely scared here, and want to know. inquiring minds have the same questions" what question?why don't you explore your thought instead of being lip tight btw why your english is better than anybody else?is it because you write to short or… Read more »

^ that was me

I know the US has some problems but I really believe that they will at least make a partial comback. May not be the world leader in years to come but they will be back. As for Canada I think our only glimmering hope right now is Oil. This is where history comes in handy. Everyone thinks the economy was really bad in the US during the last depression, but it was much much worse for Canada. If the US is going down Canada is economically doomed, it's the curse of a resource rich economy. Do you think the economics of shipping oil etc to China or anywhere other than the US make sense at historical prices? Also don't forget that the loonie soared in value vs the USD in a relatively short period of time with no fundamental explanation,… Read more »

Sean O'Grady: Hooray! House prices are falling again

Mine are 2007 estimate figures and from here: http://start.csail.mit.edu/mirror/cia.gov/library… publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186.html Last updated in late March. It could be a difference in defining public debt: eg, inclusion of state and municipal or not. Yes, borrowing is a mostly domestic concern for the Japanese. The buyers of its debt are local pension funds, the postal bank (the world's biggest bank) and other banks and govt-run institutions. They are forced through coercion and otherwise to fund the national government's liabilities. But I'm not sure I would want to be holding these bonds considering the overall debt load, weak growth and aging population. In other words, the ramifications of Japan's debt crisis are magnified on the domestic level, whereas the US has outsourced much of the risk. Sure, the US could see a major withdrawal of investment but this begs the question of where… Read more »

depends on what you define as excessive ….

http://tinyurl.com/6plbrm

Plans were then drawn up for what will be the world's largest and most expensive home: a 27-story skyscraper in downtown Mumbai with a cost nearing $2 billion

Your numbers regarding relative debt/GDP for the US and Canada are way off my sources which show them currently about equal, with the US rising and Canada falling:

http://www.budget.gc.ca/2007/bp/bpa2e.html
OECD

Note also that Japan's government debt, while high, is entirely internal, which means that borrowing and debt service is a domestic issue for Japan. It is the opposite for the US of course.

"Given they (Japan) are dealing with demographic issues that are only just arriving on North American shores their economy is doing quite up well."

Depends how you define "well" I guess. Public debt as a share of annual GDP is 194% in Japan. In Canada it's 64% and in the US it's 37%.

And it probably comes as a surprise to some, but Japan's economy is quite inefficient. Sure it has some star exporters, but on the domestic front the country is very different.

Japan succeeds because it has an amazing work and education ethic. The same goes for Germany and the belt of Protestant countries in northern Europe. This kind of culture will take you a long away.

Check out this bit of history.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2005/0…
Bulls will like it too, lots of links to some really good sounding reasons why "it's different this time". Krrish; you can even find some things to paste in that WON"T sound nonsensical.

Mish, written in '05 just as the US bubble was peaking.

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Pretty much a foregone conclusion, the inventory will continue to swell, while the sellers hold on to the kool aid induced stupor dished out by Muir and Co.

Finally the bubble blows up, and once again, the illiterate followers of the Bill Good show will confuse cause and effect.

By next spring they will think it was the economic slowdown that caused the crash.

DaMann, is your place sold yet? my parent's place sold last week for a little under ask. 28 seperate parties for first open house, one offer. gone are the multiple offer days. for my advice to sell, i'll either look like a genius or a fool in the coming months.

Vansanity said.

"3) As much as we Canadians believe we’re different from Americans,"

I think this is a big blind spot for many people, and part of the "perfect storm" of bubble psychology thats been driving things here an overestimation of uniqueness.

Much of the cost of the homeless is borne by the individual whose car or home is broken into to support their addiction. Some of that is passed on to insurance, but none is supported by taxes, hence not the governments problem. Welcome to laissez faire capitalism! Overall societal costs far higher, but shortterm and simplistically attractive. "Get a job,you bum!"

(I took it as that you were joking)

Sorry, that might not be obvious that I was joking.

I hear the point that if we provide too much for the homeless it'll attract more but it's still cheaper to help them than to put them through the legal system and have them in jail. Doesn't one homeless person cost between 40 and 50 thousand dollars per year?

Seems to me that was the stat thrown around in the always true Vancouver Sun.