Friday Free for All!
It’s time for our open-topic link round up from the past week – here’s a few stories to get us started:
-April REBGV listings grow dramatically
-Coco closes her daily economic news blog
-Caps owner has ‘no plans’ to build condos
-Coal Harbour is a weekend ghost-town
-Richmond RONA closing on Olympic tax hikes
-Forestry slump bites Prince George prices
-Live in a shipping container in Whistler
-Immigrants to Canada struggle financially
-Carney: ‘a lot of strength‘ in this economy
-Bank of Canada needs more power
-Soft landings are for the Moon
-US prices drop at fastest rate ever
-US foreclosures up 112%
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
update: The Sun finds some missing comments
note: any conversation on real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. when posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Thanks!
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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The Pope Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 8:28 pm
On a side note, I’m thinking about running another poll on monday, maybe on debt and credit rating. If you have suggestions on which questions and answer options you’d like to see there feel free to post them. Suggestions for future poll topics are welcome as well.
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ulsterman Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 8:43 pm
I was at school on Wednesday night and one of the guys there is also a real estate agent. He’s selling a 4 storey development in Cloverdale and is of the opinion that prices will never fall here. He’s sold pre-sales to 2 people in my class and one of those buyers has brought in her dad and another friend. I asked them if they were planning on moving to Cloverdale and they replied “no, i’ll just hang on to it and flip it in a year or two.” Gotta love their confidence.
Anyone know the Cloverdale market? The agent was telling me that you can rent these places for $1.90 / square foot. He says that there are no decent places to live there so rents are high. This appears over the top to me.
I don’t bother to challenge their thinking. He’s made a small fortune flipping properties over the past 3 years, and the others are so naive that i don’t want to burst any bubbles.
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bdk Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 9:06 pm
“He says that there are no decent places to live there so rents are high. ”
When this building completes 85% of the building will be for rent or for sale and the units that end up being occupied by first time buyers should cause a rental suite somewhere else to be vacated, are there any other projects in Cloverdale or Langley under construction?
History has shown that rental markets can loosen up rapidly once new product hits the market.
In Downtown Vancouver it only took 900 completed units to crash the rental market as Spectrum 1-4 demonstrated when it flooded the market and it’s going to be followed by another 8-10,000 more!
It is going to be a renters market downtown for years to come and decent renters will easily be able to take their pick of downtown units for $2/sq ft. which IMHO means that Cloverdale rents can’t get higher than that.
But I only know about the Vancouver market and know nothing about the suburbs or the rich foreigners who’re flocking here to pay infinity rent on places .
Are there any cafes or restaurants in Cloverdale?
maybe Cloverdale is where the action is!!
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Anonymous Says:
May 1st, 2008 at 9:34 pm
when will the prices finally fall off the cliff? I am tired of waiting!
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patriotz Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:47 am
decent renters will easily be able to take their pick of downtown units for $2/sq ft. which IMHO means that Cloverdale rents can’t get higher than that.
Try “can’t get higher than half that”.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....73072.html
Man, I feel like I’m at the grand opening of the Metrotown Save-on Foods back in the 80’s.
Watching from the outside.
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Anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:49 am
The Pope,
Have you read the privacy information on these polls your linking to your blog?
You may mean well, but the polling website maybe collecting all this personal information on your bloggers for their own purposes.
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The Pope Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:07 am
Hey anonymous – Thanks for the question, the polls I run on this site are hosted locally and not run by any external polling website. I use a wordpress plugin that keeps things local, so I’m the only one that has access to the data (I tend not to trust external sites either). As you can probably tell by the history of this site I have no interest in ‘de-anonymizing’ anyone or data-mining. Of course if you don’t trust me you don’t need to take part in any of the polls.
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bdk Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:28 am
Hey Patriotz, just to clarify I meant $2/sq ft for Downtown Vancouver,you know where they have cafes and where action is!
I go to Surrey once every two or three years and have never tried to rent out or rent anything there so I’m being like one of those baby bears on here spouting off without any evidence to back it up.
All I know about all these pre sales is that a lot of people who won’t qualify for mortgages now only have a few weeks to sell and make their “easy hundred grand” before the developer restricts assignments and it’s going to get messy.
It could be different in Cloverdale, maybe they’ve de coupled from the economy like other world class suburbs such as Yokohama….
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Burden of Proof Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
“when will the prices finally fall off the cliff? I am tired of waiting!”
Six to nine months. That is they real estate markets have gone in the past and that is how they went in the USA. When listings explode and sales drop, price drops are only six to nine months away.
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Krrish2 Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:37 am
RICH R GETTING RICHER VS POOR’S R GETTING POORER
Who is sitting out after sold?
Who is waiting for crash?
Would you like to be poor?
That saying above remind people to ACT ON TIMELY MANNERS or face the after math called afordability,just think about it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fs_WjstsqV4
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Anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:56 am
Before trying to figure out what Krrish means or debating the point you think he/she may be trying to make please read this:
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....c.php?t=48
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betamax Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
Man, I feel like I’m at the grand opening of the Metrotown Save-on Foods back in the 80’s.
Watching from the outside.
LOL! I remember that day very well. Apt analogy.
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Anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:22 am
Here’s a good unbiased take on the census income data:
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....b3e0e68aa2
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Snark Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:34 am
Woah! Look at that spin! Is that Robyn Adamache formerly of the whirling dervishes? Incomes down, house prices up, but affordability is just the same as it ever was? Okaaaay…. Riiiiight.
How about introducing some new 100 year mortgages now?
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visio Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Sorry if i repeat one of the links
…most Canadians don’t think we even have a Subprime market in Canada. 40 years mortage with 0 down doesn’t exists, neither Santa Clause but we still receive gifts on Christmas
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008.....subprimes/
… are you ready to let BoC steal your money directly from your pocket?
The same crime is being committed all over the world. Time to call your MP’s, Canadians.
Carney seeks wider powers for Bank of Canada
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/Business
…no recession here? Really? We are different and wrapped up in our magic bubble? Did i say bubble?
Carney ‘confident’ Canada will dodge recession
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=485409
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patriotz Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:53 am
40 year is already 91% interest, so that well is pretty much dry.
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VanToVan Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 am
Flipping in Cloverhole?
That’s a no brainer. They’ve got the CLOVERDALE RODEO!
http://www.cloverdalerodeo.com/
This is like the alignment of the stars be-because you have rich, oily Albertans coming to town. Maybe you can rent out your condo for a thousand dollars a weekend on Craigslist.
Olympics Shmolympics–the rodeo rides in to town every year.
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jesse Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:27 am
From the Sun article: “Earnings down, but house affordability is level”
WTF? This is a new low for spin. I didn’t think it was possible. But then entered Robyn. At least the Sun could find some dissenting opinions on the matter.
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read on Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:33 am
err, jesse,
that would require actual work, not simply cutting and pasting press releases …
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Patiently Waiting Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
“The Statistics Canada report shows that while a recent immigrant, man or woman, made 85 cents for every dollar made by a similar Canadian-born worker in 1980, men who have recently moved to Canada are now making 63 cents to the dollar. Recent immigrant women made only 56 cents to every dollar in 2005.”
Oh great, our screwed-up immigration policies are creating an ethnic powder keg in our major cities. I fear for the future.
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Anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:56 am
that would require actual work, not simply cutting and pasting press releases
That reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from Scott Adams:
“Reporters are faced with the daily choice of painstakingly researching stories or writing whatever people tell them. Both approaches pay the same.”
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mflat Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
Very interesting. We rent downtown in a great building. Our rent is very tiny compared to what the mortgage payment would be on a 25/40 year loan, even with 20% down. Not planning on buying for a while as this market is just insane, and about to tank (imho). Anyway, take a look at this link: http://6717000.com/bentley/mls-138.html
This building usually had a handful (less than 5) units on sale whenever I checked over the past few years. Now, when I walk by, there are always listings taped to the door. The panic is on as people are looking to get out. The pricing competition may get fierce if people are trying to sell before the crash.
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Anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:01 am
Hey Pope,
Did you see the comment at the end of the Vancouver Sun/Missing Comments Post by someone from CBC Early Morning edition? If so, are you planning on contacting them?
(Hoping you do).
BTW. Love your blog!
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Anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:15 am
.
.
.
“Six to nine months. That is how real estate markets have gone in the past and that is how they went in the USA”
Oh really??
In 1981, our market started to drop about a month after inventory spiked, and it dropped more than 30% in less than a year. In 1990, it dropped more than 20% in less than a year.
US markets that that started to drop later than the earlier ones, dropped at a faster rate than the earlyer ones. That’s obviously because they were not hampered by the uncertainties of the first ones to drop.
Vancover has a history of extremes in both directions, and judging by the insanity of our bubble we will certainly live up to our reputation.
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johnny33 Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:17 am
I thought the “living in shipping containers” was a joke… apparently not. Nothing surprises me anymore in this housing market.
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The Pope Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
Anon 11:01 – I did see the note from mariana of the CBC.. Sorry to dissapoint, but I’m not really a ’spotlight’ kind of guy so I won’t be calling. If anyone else feels knowledgeable about the situation and can explain it on the radio in clear calm terms, go ahead and give them a call, they may set you up as a guest.
BUT check this out: Whether it was a technical problem or intentional deletion some of the comments are now back online, and look who posted the indecipherable bullish comment number 7, It’s our local regular Krrish:
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....038;k=5982
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-A- Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
<<<<<<<<ONE MYTH AT A TIME EXPOSED<<<<<<<<<<<
There must be some misunderstanding; there must be some kind of a mistake, and not the same that Phil Collins is referring to.
I am talking about the income growth.
The RE pimps have been citing income growth as one of the main drivers of real estate prices, and now it appears that there must have been some kind of miscalculation.
Interesting, maybe we aren’t running out of land
either, and maybe the rich immigrants aren’t so rich, and maybe Bill Good, Muir, Pastrick and others have been given the wrong information, what other possible explanation could there be?
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Tony Danza Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
men who have recently moved to Canada are now making 63 cents to the dollar.
This is obviously false, everyone knows that rich immigrants are flooding our shores and snapping up multiple 400 sqft condos in downtown Whalley!
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jadeeast Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:57 am
I think what the Pope said about remaining out of the spotlight is one of the reasons it’s been hard for a bearish POV to appear in the MSM. Mostly the local voices that have been bearish are anon posters on blogs,that makes quoting them as sources a bit difficult. I completely understand the popes position and feelings about remaining out of the spotlight and taking the heat. Not everyone is a Garth Turner…
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anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
.
.
Thanks for the re-opened Vancouver Sun link pope.
However, I could’nt help but notice that the comments are more selectively chosen than ever.
It might be worth the effort to test their biased scrutiny and report back to us….Thanks
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visio Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
MLS# V687842 Sqft Fin. 837
Current Price $339,900 Listed Feb 1/08
Original Price $339,000 Entered Feb 7/08 Feb 11/08 $345,000 Status Chgd May 1/08
Feb 1/08 $339,000
Sale Date Apr 22/08 Sale Price $326,800
This one sounds like a 4% drop and there are a lot of condos around SFU ….
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moldcity Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
You think those comments are selectively chosen? If thats the case then the sentiment on real estate in this town has taken a dramatic change for the worse. I only see two positive comments on the article – one from kathy claiming that the ‘facts’ are uncontroversial and one from krrish making his regular incoherent ramblings. If those are the only positive comments they had to select from that this market is about to crash hard.
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moldcity Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:18 pm
jadeeast, there are many people paid to promote real estate, but as far as I know none that are paid to cut through the hype. How many people in Vancouver have full time jobs with income that is directly related to promoting the real estate market?
That’s why you’ll always hear more ‘pro-market’ sentiment than caution. Of course that leads to those hillarious graphs showing cheerleaders like Learah proclaiming a market bottom regularly as US house prices continue to crash, or those shockingly bad local news predictions on the Vancouver market just before previous crashes.
That said I’d still vote for Pope to give them a call, it would be great to hear this issue get some airtime.
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-A- Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Anybody catch this comment in the vancouver sun myth special:
Krrish2Wed, Apr 30, 08 at 03:49 PM
Almost in decade-In vancouver rates of pay has increased three time higher,fuel-energy cost is up three times,grocery prices are up three times,gold prices are up three times so does the average home prices in Vancouver up three times,unemployment rates are down,interest rates are low,low,low and another cuts are on the finger tips, immigration and migration showing no sign of slow down,no more land in vancouver.no downturn in decades to come in vancouver bc bpe
There you have it folks incomes have trippled, in the last decade, and I guess the rest of the post holds true as well.
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UnSunsored Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Whoa! now it looks like ALL the comments are back! There are tons complaining about the comment deletion including duplicates. Why won’t they just post a note explaining what happened? Could it be that attention from several blogs and the CBC motivated a reversal?
Just in case they have another ‘problem’ I’ll post the comments that I can currently see (without duplicates) onto digi’s post:
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....c.php?t=52
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hughz Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Well, looks like the April figures are out:
http://tinyurl.com/5yune7
Although it is not clear what is being measured in the average detached price, it is down 4% from March (i.e. annualized drop of about 50%).
I wonder if the local rags will now report that the average price of detached homes will be $220,000 by 2010 to counter their claim of a few months ago that it would hit one million. Something tells me not…
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Tony Danza Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Hughz are you suggesting the Sun “look out to the downside”?
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Bankerman Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Just saw the news flash on vancouversun.com, April 2008 averaged detached price at $880,844 down from $919,593 in March 2008. Yes, detached market down about four percent in one month.
Sorry bulls, game is over. Sell, sell, sell now before the real panic hits in a couple of months. All markets move on greed and fear, looks like panic & fear have begun to arrive. Bottom line, if you are a seller now, cut your price immediately by 10 percent and beat the rush to the exits and maybe you will find sucker to buy your place!!!!
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beatstreet Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:59 pm
I see in the Vancouver Sun MLS April numbers article it quotes board president Dave Watt as saying
“residential sales continue to be strong, but there is a lot more choice on the market today”.
That’s an interesting perspective given that sales fell 5% yr/yr according to the article.
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/dev/null Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Benchmarks still up. Everything is fine.
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cheapskate Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Take it easy with these figures. We only get the averages, not the spread, and it’s not clear how significant the drop is (how does it compare to other monthly fluctuations?). Regarding volume, I have heard that April this year has fewer days than last year (not that I am convinced that makes any difference, since maybe sales and listings are just processed on different days of the month). Also the drop is in SFH, not condos, presumably smaller volumes of these turn over.
I’m expecting the downturn, but I’m don’t see the “smoking gun” in this report, or, to be honest, in paul boenisch’s fabulous data… yet.
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read on Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
“April this year has fewer days than last year ”
What? April has 30 days every year, unless you move to bizzaro-universe.
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anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:09 pm
.
Amazing what some bulls will stoop to, but reducing the number of days in April has to top all.
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dimon Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Are house prices heading for a 1990s-style crash?
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mk-kids Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:15 pm
“What? April has 30 days every year, unless you move to bizzaro-universe.”
I think days of business was meant to be implied.
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mk-kids Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
For further clarification:
April had 22 business days (Mon to Fri) in 2008 & 19 days in 2007 (taking into account the easter holiday).
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hughz Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:31 pm
My comments from above were tongue-in-cheek…more of a jab at 24 and the Sun for running with one or two month’s of price growth data and projecting it two years forward…
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mohican Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I’ve posted charts and analysis on the REBGV numbers at http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/
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vanguy Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 4:12 pm
bctv has a teaser piece on the new numbers just now, and they had a visual of Spectrum along with the lady saying that there may be a dent in Vancouver’s ‘red-hot’ housing market.
Spectrum!….I loved it.
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punface Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Wow, looking at those charts, it really really looks as though the writing is on the wall.
Still, I’m a sceptic, that’s why I’m here after all. June 1st, we will know for sure by then.
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Michael Randallbard Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
He’s right, April had only 23 days this year. I slept through the others
-
“April 2008 averaged detached price at $880,844″
VANCOUVER SUCKS this is outrageous, they must think they are Moscow here lolol
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Michael Randallbard Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
“I think days of business was meant to be implied.”
Chinese realtors don’t celebrate Easter nor do the ever stop working
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mk-kids Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
That’ll teach me for skimming comments & trying to be helpful…
;~
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cashisking Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
My wife is a realtor … since when do they care about “business days”. They do more business on weekends than during the week.
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Krrish2 Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
A,
Statscan report is for british columbia not for
vancouver alone,42 k is for average british columbians not for individuals.
In 2005, there were 601,510 full-time workers raking in $100K-plus salaries — a 26 per cent jump over 2000.
The jump was even more pronounced among the 206,160 full-time workers who earned $150,000-plus salaries. Their numbers were up nearly 30 per cent in 2005.
here you got base and increased percent in half decade for bc bring it to vancouver and double the increased percentage to full decade,you can feel lots vancouverites income has been trippled in a decade include mine.
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Krrish2 Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:23 pm
may be that was not appropriate analsis here we got mr. a who has earned $15,496 in 1997 same mr a $52,000 in 2007.
mr b $27,040 in 1997 $104,000 in 2007. there might be some of bears with data but no body like to help each other is there any body to show us some light on this issue?
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-A- Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Krrish you get caughted making big untrue again.
Average tax filer went from 38k 1993 to 52k 2003, that does not compute with your usual lies.
Also that is not inflation adjusted.
The truth is you RE pimps outright lie.
Incomes in Vancouver are lower than most cities in Canada, and housing costs are one of the highest in the world.
The metrics are worse than just before the crash of 81
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bdk Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Watch Mr.A go from $52,000 to $15,495 after he’s laid off and has to go work at Wal Mart in 2009.
Which means he’s now earning one third of what was making and has to pay three times as much for stuff as he did in 1997.
A)How does Mr.A afford his mortgage?
As I just proved all wages will go down 70% in 2009
vancouver bpe
also watch mr.b go from $30,000 to $9,990.
someone shed some light on this
Prices go down for decades to come
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mk-kids Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Geesh, my comment was based on the days the RE board uploads stats not the 24/7 hours of RE agents.
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krrish2 Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:02 pm
look you guys always start draging some point to make counter arguments that’s why message is not getting through in a result you have wasted lots of time talking about bubble but somehow bubble did not show up in rebgv chart.
every one want to over come on each other only together we can make a difference.
Stat from statscan is to show how average people are earning their living if you convert this 42k into 150k still 4.5 million people are not going to buy $38 million worth of pent house on 34th floor.
lots of cheap or expensive things are available on earth but not all people are in need of them nor we have the ability to make 4.5 million houses in bc.
btw people with low income also own their own house or appartments lots of owners are paid off, what you looking in specific is a sq.ft. otherwise story is different compare to income ratio. people are buying homes -thats why market is going up ,if you based your fact on statscan report market should be dead after 1982,this is may 2008.
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krrish2 Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:08 pm
ok, ok, I admit I’m an idiot
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Re-diculous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Although I’m loath to do so – I must give credit when its due:
1. Vancouver Sun for reposting the comments that totally trash their garbage of last week;
2. Vancouver Sun for publishing an article entitled “Greater Vancouve Real Estate sales slip, listings jump” (intead of spinning some bs positive title – even though the statistics within the article are spun to make you dizzy); and
3. Krrish2 for admitting to being an idiot
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krrish2 Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:36 pm
“3. Krrish2 for admitting to being an idiot”
It’s not me i think some one looking for more rant i will put mise in his/ her pant!!
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Anonymous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
krrish2 admits to being an IDIOT?
Why isn’t THIS in the Vancouver Sun?
This is HUGE!!!!!
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scullboy Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Weird….. that last one wasn’t me.
But thanks krrish for all your entertaining posts. I’m quite looking forward to whatever drivel you choose to post in the coming crash…
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krrish2 Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Hey Sonika,
how you doing what a entery with bang!!!!! bombarding with pimps and child abuse even after long absence the sense is not in control,where have you been?
I was looking at chilko but found out you are out from there to some new building.
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Re-diculous Says:
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Good Cut and paste from Greater fool blog note the similarity between these 2 statements and the dates they were made:
David Lereah – NAR Chief Economist – MAY 2006
“Coming off a prolonged period of record sales, housing is taking something of a breather this year. Even so, interest rates remain historically low, we’ve added about 2 million jobs over the last 12 months and the economy continues to grow – that will sustain healthy levels of home sales in 2006, but they’ll stay below the peaks experienced during the last two years.”
Gregory Klump – CREA Chief Economist – JANUARY 2008
“The Canadian housing market in 2008 will pull back from the breakneck pace set in 2007, but this is still forecast to be the second-busiest year on record in almost all provinces, with residential unit sales reaching an estimated 512,705 units. Average prices for MLS® home sales are expected to keep setting records in
2008, although prices will increase more slowly as the market becomes more balanced. In most provinces, the market will nevertheless remain historically tight; with the tightest markets being in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Nationwide, the average residential price is forecast to increase 5.5 per cent to about $322,700.”
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Re-diculous Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 4:54 am
Sun: Real Estate listings up 53%
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....mp;k=66458
Obligitory Spin: “It took an average of six fewer days to sell a home than it did in the previous year,” Watt said. “That is probably as telling as anything.”
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patriotz Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 6:47 am
“The rise in listings “is consistent with people believing they’re at the [market] peak and are rushing to sell before market conditions change,” Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate at the Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., said in an interview.
Somerville added that the normal model of an economic cycle heading into a downturn sees sales drop while new-listing activity plateaus.”
Executive summary: the bubble has burst.
Just can’t come out and say it, can you Tsur?
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krrish2 Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 7:36 am
Bdk,
Canadian Giants going to develop a huge net to trap walmart because walmart have difficult location in the menu that would be hard for cunsumers to reach there and Canadian Giants will take advantage of that they are going to do the following.
1.Each Giant will establish 20 small store at the size of an extra food store or market place in downtown or west side or like the one you can see on your way to whistler.
2.All employees at CG will get 10% permanent discount to shop in their stores.
3.Because of these new net D.C. jobs are their to stay plus the rates of pay will increase more every 500 hours by $1.10- for all those extra stores Gaints will creat more jobs for all new store good for the public and big competition for Giants.
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-A- Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 7:47 am
.
.
.
Wow, just wanted to say you are doing a fine job at “the
other” site, keep it going buddy, this time looks like you got “sly” and are using the FOX program and the dogs can’t censure you.
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-A- Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:20 am
Hi Krrish I must tell you I am somewhat disappointed in you.
You dropped the price! on the Rupert joint, what kind of a sales professionals are you guys?
Did you point out to the potential buyers:
We are running out of land,and of course BC’s economy is the world’s economic engine. with explosive income and population growth.
East Vancouver is the preferred destination of the world’s jet set crowd because it has Trout Lake, Commercial Drive, and oh yeah, a short drive, from the Rupert place, is Victoria and Hastings, where you can get a hooker and a bag of weed, for under $100 CDN of course.
Maybe you guys aren’t the professinal you claim to be. You are just “order takers” at the first sign of a sales challenge you drop the price.
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scullboy Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:57 am
Krrish,
Let me get this straight: you went to my old building and checked up on me? Jesus Christ you are one creepy little gimp.
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Anonymous Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 9:00 am
Had dinner with some friends in the R/E market. they claim that the condo market in vancouver has dropped 5% in past couple of months. This is pretty reliable source. It’s going downhill from here.
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misanthropic curmudgeon Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 9:15 am
you are one creepy little gimp.
so are you two de-coupling?
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Patiently Waiting Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 9:52 am
http://www.bclocalnews.com/tri.....68369.html
Riverbend developer sells off apartments guaranteed for a loan, so seniors may lose homes.
“Craig Lochhead, a director of Riverbend’s developer, CB Development, said the Maillardville apartment units were used as guarantees for a loan from CareVest and, now, company assets are being liquidated to satisfy its debt.
“As we were trying to save Riverbend, basically, we continued to pledge assets that we owned,” Lochhead said Wednesday. “We’re very sad that not only are those people being displaced from their homes but that we’re losing another million dollars worth of real estate that we owned as a result of Riverbend.””
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scoop Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 am
“The panel was unanimous: There is no bubble” and other goodies from the 2008 Vancouver Real Estate Forum here.
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-A- Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 am
Panel:
Neil Chrystal, President & CEO, Polygon Homes Ltd. (Moderator)
Eric Carlson, President & CEO, Anthem Properties Ltd.
Jon deC Evans, President & CEO, Trilogy Properties Corporation
Steve Laver, President, Playground Limited Partnership
Ward McAllister, President & CEO, Ledingham McAllister Properties Ltd.
The only unbiased commentator missing was Bill Good.
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patriotz Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 am
Riverbend developer sells off apartments guaranteed for a loan, so seniors may lose homes.
Change of ownership does not impair tenancy rights. The renters can only be required to leave for a new owner-occupier and there are required procedures to be followed.
The article doesn’t say, but I would think the provision of rental housing was required by the city as a condition of granting the development permit. No developer would provide rental units otherwise – the yield is too low. If so, it’s likely that the new owner would be bound by this too.
I get the distinct impression that the new owner is trying to scare the seniors into buying because they don’t want to, or may not be able to, list the properties on the open market.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 am
Patriotz,
Good point, the journalist could have done a better job research the tenants rights etc. I found it curious that rights weren’t mentioned in the article. I think CB Development still owns the units so it must be them (and their realtors) who are engaging in the scare tactics.
These seniors need an advocate who knows the law.
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anonymous Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 am
.
.
“Just can’t come out and say it, can you Tsur?”
Actually, he is saying it in “professor speak”, but with all those credentials, should’nt he have been able to warn us a couple of years ago?
BTW, you guys seen that shitbox Chipman is trying to unload for three quarters of a mil in east Van? In east Van for cryin out loud!
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Anonymous Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 11:08 am
Our Day of Reckoning is coming, fellow Bears! Soon we’ll be watching all these overpriced condo owners thrown out onto the streets, while banks teeter on the edge of collapse. Woohoo!!!! Then us Bears can come in and scoop up a foreclosed condo for 60% OFF! Can’t wait until that day comes!
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bdk Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Scullboy if the troll was stalking you. What was he planning to do if he found you? Ask you out on date?
Does anyone here know where Krissh works or lives?
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hombre Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
.
.
.
About that Chipman listig:
Three quarters of a mil for a teardown on a busy street for cryin out loud!
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Bizznitch Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Krissh can be found flipping burgers at one of the McDs in Vancouver. He’s just a keyboard warrior.
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Tony Danza Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
The end must be nigh, I can actually understand Krissh’s posts.
In 2005, there were 601,510 full-time workers raking in $100K-plus salaries — a 26 per cent jump over 2000.
Most of these are supported by RE bubble prices and construction, so enjoy it while it lasts, you’ve probably got another six months (if you’re in RE services) and maybe a year or two if you’re in construction (small developers probably have six months before they start going BK).
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Tony Danza Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Krissh is in the denial stage of bubble psychology.
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hughz Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
“Actually, he is saying it in “professor speak”, but with all those credentials, should’nt he have been able to warn us a couple of years ago?”
I am pretty ambivalent about Somerville – I think he is probably smarter than I give him credit for and probably (hopefully) recognized the unsustainable conditions of the past few years as such.
At the same time, he is certainly hemmed in by the fact that he works at Sauder’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate…which is underwritten by the Real Estate Foundation of BC. Likewise for his professorship …underwritten by the same people. One shouldn’t bite the hand that feeds them.
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beatstreet Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:04 pm
The latest numbers seem to confirm that things are about to head south; however, unsustainable trends can continue on longer than expected especially when fuelled by massive private debt (40 year mortgage anyone?). This was a thought raised Marc Faber in his last newsletter where he referenced Steve Keen’s Aussie blog debtwatch. http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
Towards the middle of the latest entry you will see a measure of Aussie house prices that pulled back in 2004 then actually rose just as the USA hit its peak. Now, according to some of the local bloggers I read at the globalhousepricecrash forum, it seems things in Oz may be leveling out again according to first quarter sales figures.
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/dev/null Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Are they processing listings today? I received an automated email from a realtor’s VOW search just now. Those only seem to go out on days when listings are being added…
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Anonymous Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Just came back from a couple of open house. It is dead out there. No offers. No viewers. This is getting boring.
Best advice to provide your client is to price their property sharply. Aways be ahead of the curve. In a falling market, you need to price below market.
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Tony Danza Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:36 pm
I am pretty ambivalent about Somerville – I think he is probably smarter than I give him credit for and probably (hopefully) recognized the unsustainable conditions of the past few years as such.
There were quite a few academic economists that identified the RE bubble early on in the US, you can find out who they were on the HBB. Somerville is a shill for the REIC and couldn’t tell a fundamentally broken RE market from his a$$hole. Of course once things go to hell he’ll indentify the bubble and prognosticate to the upside.
Disclaimer: I have worked with Somerville in an academic capacity and found him to be as intellectually sharp as a rubber mallet.
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hughz Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
“Disclaimer: I have worked with Somerville in an academic capacity and found him to be as intellectually sharp as a rubber mallet.”
Interesting. I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt. I will admit to Google Scholar-ing him…his publication and citation record is a pretty underwhelming.
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scullboy Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
BDK:
I actually think I saw him leave my old building. If he’s the guy I think, he’s sort of a chubby, doughy Indian / Asian guy in his 20s with sorta longish greasy disheveled hair and a truly retarded expression.
Seriously.
And the weird thing was I kind of thought it might be him at the time,
Hey ‘tard if that really was you, tell your mom I said hi.
Oh and nice jiggly man – boobs.
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bdk Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
What was he doing in your building?
My source tells me he lives with his Mum and walks around Marinaside telling people he’s a DJ.
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Raincouver Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:12 pm
.
Hey ‘tard if that really was you, tell your mom I said hi.
Oh and nice jiggly man – boobs.
Excellent commentary about RE. Totally pertinent.
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bdk Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
As if the troll has ever said anything relevant. He just admitted to stalking a fellow blogger on this site, most likely to ask him out on a date.
BTW
The Vancouver Sun says:
“Your chances of having your comments posted are much better if you use proper grammar, spelling and punctuation. ” So they’ll post fictitious and incoherent chubby retarded trolls comments but won’t post mine?
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rentah Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Higher end Westside inventory, as per MLS:
Point Grey, 3rd May, last three years:
2006 – 21
2007 – 31
2008 – (drumroll) 65
Small sample, but I’d say this was VERY significant.
Also note lots of SFHs being built in this area, in groups of two or three at times. So, even more inventory is coming. Not to mention those homeowners who are now going to try and realize those paper ‘gains’ before retirement.
So much for the high-end being more resilient.
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freako Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
“Geesh, my comment was based on the days the RE board uploads stats not the 24/7 hours of RE agents.”
“My wife is a realtor … since when do they care about “business days”. They do more business on weekends than during the week.’
1. The RE board work week, ought not matter. They simply process more the days after long weekend. It does matter when the month closes on weekend or long weekend.
2. Don’t forget that offers and acceptance are made before completion (which is when the sale is booked). I can’t see a shortened month affecting completions. It would simply be moved back or forward a few days.
3. What I can see happening is that offer and acceptance becomes delayed. Realtors may be willing to work Easter and what have you, but I don’t think house hunters do.
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patriotz Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 6:37 pm
The anti-Tsur is Chris Thornberg in California. While at the UCLA business school’s Anderson Forecast he called a spade a spade right back in 2005:
http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/thornberg.html
Interestingly Thornberg left the business school in 2006 to pursue, cough, “other opportunities”.
Of course people like Shiller and Krugman were also calling the bubble at the same time, but they were tenured ivory tower academics in economics departments (as opposed to business schools), so the bulls could just write them off as out of touch.
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Raincouver Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 6:44 pm
.
BTW, you guys seen that shitbox Chipman is trying to unload for three quarters of a mil in east Van? In east Van for cryin out loud!
The sad part is, people are looking at it and saying, well…maybe it’s not *that* bad…maybe it’s a better deal than some other shacks on MLS, it might be reasonable.
Crikey! That’s how bad we’re being manipulated – three quarters of a million bucks is supposed to be, like chump-change.
This market needs a lot of ‘correcting’.
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Alexcanuck Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:11 pm
I’m going to post this on to here as well, because I really want to know if and how it’s wrong. Originally on Mohicans site in response to Damann and Tony Danza.
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=31427364&postID=4705273067761909288
What say ye all?
One point on Europe, they are already adapted to high energy price. Not car dependent, compact cities, good transit, etc. They protect farmland, manufacturing ability has not been gutted like ours. They can adapt to $200 oil much better than North America.
The ECB has as it’s only mandate, has re-iterated and backed up by action, that they will protect the Euro against inflation. The US Federal reserve, OTOH, is supposed to promote growth as well as protect the currency. They give lip service only to the protect the currency part, while printing money and bailing out all and any. Inflationary pressures are huge and growing, with real inflation being much higher than the massaged official numbers.In addition, there is the HUGE pile of derivatives of various flavours, 500-800 TRILLION, depending on who’s counting, all denominated in $US. If these are allowed to collapse, the great depression will be renamed! If they are monetized the $US will look like the Mexican Peso circa early ’80’s or Argentina more recently.
According to Denninger, who may rant kinda strongly, but does have impeccable math skills and good sources, the total debt of the States is 280% of GDP with interest charges of 22.4%. By comparison, in 1929 it was “only” 150%. And back then they didn’t need oil imports. There is no way this debt gets paid back like it’s supposed to be.
http://market-ticker.denninger.....tters.html
Either it defaults, or hyper-inflation sets in until the debt can be paid in face value dollars, but by then oil is $2000 a barrel. At least homes will have stopped going down, but China and the Gulf States might not be so happy being paid with wheelbarrows of paper. I really believe we a at a historical turning point.
If you know of a third way out, that lets business as usual to continue, please tell me. I haven’t been a perma-bear, but I’m genuinely scared here, and want to know. The rich will do fine, with homes in the south of France and money beyond the reach of any mere nation, but what of yours and my pension funds and small savings?
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patriotz Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
One point on Europe, they are already adapted to high energy price. Not car dependent, compact cities, good transit, etc. They protect farmland, manufacturing ability has not been gutted like ours.
A conspicuous exception to this is the UK, which is really just the US in Europe – deindustrialized, debt-ridden, car-dependent (more so than any other country in Europe though not as much as the US of course), and with an even bigger housing bubble than the US.
The rich will do fine, with homes in the south of France
Actually you can buy a nice country house in the south of France for less than the price of an East Van crapbox. VHB had an item on this sometime back, I remember it well.
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misanthropic curmudgeon Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:46 pm
I haven’t been a perma-bear, but I’m genuinely scared here, and want to know.
inquiring minds have the same questions….
no one person has the entire picture, things just happen and someone tries to explain it and then extrapolate what could happen next..
so there is no answer..
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patriotz Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Erin and Andy Mathias started looking for a new house around the start of the year on the north side of Seattle because it was convenient to work, shopping, parks and other amenities.
They found a good selection, but at least as much competition for anything decent in their price range, up to $350,000.
In Seattle today, if there’s competition for a house in a good central neighbourhood for under 350K, that’s considered a seller’s market.
Earth to Vancouver?
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/.....and02.html
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Snark Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 11:44 pm
I think this is the comparison you were talking about Patriotz:
Kitsilano vs. France
So if you’re ‘wealthy’ you can choose between a ‘fixer-upper’ on Vancouver’s west side or a estate mansion in the south of France with a pool and 3 apartment guest house.
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patriotz Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Oh BTW, if you like the neighbourhood in the photo (Ravenna, Seattle’s equivalent to WPG or Dunbar) here’s what you get for 500K (and Seattle is only starting to fall):
Looks just like WPG/Dunbar too
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Patiently Waiting Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 2:23 am
BOOM BOOM BOOM at Quattro Phase 3
<a href=”http://tinyurl.com/46248o”
I haven’t done html code in many years.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 2:28 am
http://tinyurl.com/46248o
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patriotz Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 6:12 am
“We see much less upward pressure on home prices — they are still growing but in single digits rather than those higher double-digit numbers we’ve seen in the last few years,” said Cameron Muir, the chief economist of the B.C. Real Estate Association.
“That’s good news for home buyers because there’s much more selection to choose from,” he said.
Translation: the bust is on.
So when is Cam going to come out with the first bottom call?
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Anonymous Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 6:33 am
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.....-woes.html
“fresh victims of the RE bust, condo owners whose mean, nasty condo boards won’t let them rent out their units:”
Good stuff from Calculated Risk
Look for this to start up here as the bust proceeds.
Incidentally, Tanta is a former bank officer and mortgage lending specialist, so VERY credible when it comes to RE stuff.
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crabman Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 6:53 am
That Thornberg article was a great find, patriotz. Just replace “California” with “Vancouver”, and change the date to today’s…
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DaMann Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 7:19 am
Alexcanuck
I replied to your post at the other blog. Thanks for your response. I’m still on the fence about going with US$. For the sake of ease, I will post my response here as well. It’s interesting studying the currency market right now.
e8005
Thanks for the info. I will do some checking with the credit unions and see if US$ GIC’s are indeed insured. If they are I stll may consider that as on option.
Tony Danza,
That’s my thought as well. I think it was Warren Buffet who said sell on greed buy on fear.It’s certainly time to dump RE in Van and there is so much fear and uncertainty with the US. I know the US has some problems but I really believe that they will at least make a partial comback. May not be the world leader in years to come but they will be back.
As for Canada I think our only glimmering hope right now is Oil. I personally don’t think it can keep our dollar up forever. I think Canada is heading for some tough times, the east is already hit hard and forestry is toast, and with a par dollar you can bet tourism from the US is toast as well.
To me it just seems like a good move to go to US $ right now. It may take 2 years or so but I think it may be worth looking into.
Alexcanuck,
Great points as well. I do realize that the US$ has been falling compared to us rather than the Can$ going up. What I need to do homework on is why hasn’t the CAN$ fallen in relation to other currencies. My only answer so far is oil. However as soon as the west tanks, namely BC RE, then BC’s economy will be finished. IF that happens then there really will be no more bright spots left for Canada.
As well the US is going to have to start raising rates at some point. Can they go much lower? Can they do a Japan? I just don’t see it. If they have to start raising rates again to combat infaltion then we may see a flow back to US$.
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Vansanity Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Lots of good reading material you guys, much appreciated!
This whole boom and eventual “correction” has taught me plenty, much of it I may have already known but never observed to this extent:
1) Stats can prove whatever anyone wants them to, it all depends on what they are compared to;
2) People ARE lemmings, I believe it comes from their laziness in not wanting to undertake proper due diligence, the rest stems from fear;
3) As much as we Canadians believe we’re different from Americans, we too are a society completely defined by what we “own”, we too are driven by greed (the majority);
4) Always take what someone says, who has a vested interest in the subject, with a handful of salt (common sense to some and… well you know).
I maintain that if we’re wrong about the impending “correction”, then whoever is left can have it and good luck to them once the party ends.
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patriotz Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:11 am
Can they go much lower? Can they do a Japan?
No they can’t, because Japan is a creditor and the US is a debtor. The US relies on the confidence of its lenders to keep going, and that confidence is being severely strained. If the Fed is not willing to put a floor under the dollar the Chinese and others are going to demand much higher interest rates for USD debt, which would increase US market interest rates (what individuals and business pay, rather than the banks) and needless to say would be disastrous for the economy.
The Chinese have already been making blunt statements about this through “unofficial” spokespersons which is their way of conveying tough talk without risking “face-saving” issues.
The US current account deficit of $2bn/day represents real goods and services and the Fed cannot make it go away by waving a magic wand.
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disbelief Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:40 am
RE Quattro… What a surprise that they have a few units left. $139,000 for a 417 sq ft shoebox a short walk from crack whore corner. There was some shady business in that complex anyway… A friend lined up at the last sale and they were sold out before the line ended. They had presold most of them before the sale started to drum up business for the next one… Good marketing but small condo in a bad area. A good product sells itself while a crap in a box is much harder to sell… This is a good example (Quattro- I guess at 417 sq ft is the perfect size to rent to a crackwhore so easy to rent)
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Anonymous Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Good talking!
The US Fed Appears to be willing to risk the loss of reserve currency status for the $US in order to keep the party going a bit longer. (until after the election, perhaps?)
Does anyone here have inside knowledge of Japan? Seem to me that all this bemoaning of the lack of growth is merely those who want the opportunities to get rich! rich! rich! that a bubble brings, while the vast majority is better served by a stable and prosperous society. Perhaps Japan has made that transition? The States and Canada are stuck in this perma-growth model.
Europe, too, is willing to accept stability over endless boom/bust cycles, I believe. The UK have bought into that bubble mentality also, and will feel much more pain. The speculators in Europe will NOT be bailed out, Spain,especially, will lose everything they didn’t have to begin with.
Here in BC, Gordon Campbell and his group of developers have stoked the fires of a mighty boom, with no thought of sustainability. (A bit of lip service. No action that I can see.) It’s a mighty seductive offer; you can have it all, we will all become rich beyond our wildest dreams, this will continue forever, no piper to be paid in the end. Now go back to being distracted by the Olympics, Survivor and American Idol (Canadian Idol doesn’t get the same attention but so what – we can be a branch office of the American dream). I brew beer (mighty fine beer) and I see what unconstrained growth in a limited environment ends up like!
The $US dollar has farther to fall than than most, due to the excesses being greater there, and the sustainability less.
Enough from me for now. What say ye?
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alexcanuck Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 9:07 am
08:57:31
Good talking!
That was me
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read on Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Comment by hughz
2008-05-03 12:44:54
Likewise for his professorship …underwritten by the same people. One shouldn’t bite the hand that feeds them.
*********************88
Underwritten, perhaps (whatever that means), but funded from your tax dollars. And many of them…
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slade Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Hey! No posts from Drachen! We still have 50% to go, too early for house hunting!
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Anonymous Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 10:08 am
Does anyone here have inside knowledge of Japan?
Japan is certainly not the bubbly effervescent place it was 20 years ago, but the economy is stable, people are employed, fed and housed, the streets are clean, and the kids are having a blast.
Given they are dealing with demographic issues that are only just arriving on North American shores their economy is doing quite up well.
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impolitic Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 10:35 am
I walked down to the park in Point Grey yesterday and what a shame this booming city is turning into. I saw two people passed out on the road near west 4th avenue and down in the park itself there was an ambulance hauling someone out of the trees surrounded by a large caravan of homeless people with shopping carts and bike trailers.
You can’t go more than a couple blocks here with out seeing someone digging through trash or sleeping in a doorway. There are a couple of regulars on West Broadway that I assume have tourets, they shout and air punch near peoples heads as they pass by. When did we decide that the mentally ill should just be left to take care of themselves?
Even if you look at this sad situation in cold financial terms it’s got to be cheaper to provide for these people rather than pay for all the extra police and emergency medical care.
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mk-kids Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 10:49 am
I hear you freako. My comment was not well thought out. I was giving the original poster the benefit of the doubt, skimming comments & trying to make the irrational rational, but I think he\she even said in a subsequent post they were having fun. Clearly I missed the joke…
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bdk Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Impolitic. I grew up a near jericho park.
The hill there has always been a bum hangout. They sometimes clash with the teenagers who drink there and the fire dept comes down and extniguises their fires.
They also hang out near the fringes of the Dept of national defense.
Do you ever see the homeless guy who hangs out around Drummond Drive? I haven’t seen him in ten years but he would talk to some of the neighbours and one of them told me he had been a stockbroker in the 1980’s and lived n the area but had had a nervous breakdown and started living in the woods.
But who needs social services when we have world class condos?
What we really need is another speedskating oval, oh boy that’s going to be a blast when it’s done.
Anyone want to go speedskating?
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alexcanuck Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 11:04 am
When did we decide that the mentally ill should just be left to take care of themselves?
When the liberals took power, proceeded with the closure of Riverview but cut the community support services that were supposed to take it’s place!
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bdk Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Sorry, that might not be obvious that I was joking.
I hear the point that if we provide too much for the homeless it’ll attract more but it’s still cheaper to help them than to put them through the legal system and have them in jail. Doesn’t one homeless person cost between 40 and 50 thousand dollars per year?
Seems to me that was the stat thrown around in the always true Vancouver Sun.
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Anonymous Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Much of the cost of the homeless is borne by the individual whose car or home is broken into to support their addiction. Some of that is passed on to insurance, but none is supported by taxes, hence not the governments problem. Welcome to laissez faire capitalism! Overall societal costs far higher, but shortterm and simplistically attractive. “Get a job,you bum!”
(I took it as that you were joking)
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Raincouver Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
I hear the point that if we provide too much for the homeless it’ll attract more but it’s still cheaper to help them than to put them through the legal system and have them in jail.
Au contraire. Look at our neighbours to the south…there’s plenty of money being made in the prison industry. Buy shares of Wackenhut, there will always be profit in societal dysfunction.
Don’t let compassion blind you. Perhaps you’re hoping to live in a sane world, then you might be SOL.
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Anonymous Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Vansanity said.
“3) As much as we Canadians believe we’re different from Americans,”
I think this is a big blind spot for many people, and part of the “perfect storm” of bubble psychology thats been driving things here an overestimation of uniqueness.
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homeless Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
DaMann, is your place sold yet? my parent’s place sold last week for a little under ask. 28 seperate parties for first open house, one offer. gone are the multiple offer days. for my advice to sell, i’ll either look like a genius or a fool in the coming months.
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-A- Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
.
.
Pretty much a foregone conclusion, the inventory will continue to swell, while the sellers hold on to the kool aid induced stupor dished out by Muir and Co.
Finally the bubble blows up, and once again, the illiterate followers of the Bill Good show will confuse cause and effect.
By next spring they will think it was the economic slowdown that caused the crash.
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alexcanuck Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Check out this bit of history.
http://globaleconomicanalysis......adigm.html
Bulls will like it too, lots of links to some really good sounding reasons why “it’s different this time”. Krrish; you can even find some things to paste in that WON”T sound nonsensical.
Mish, written in ‘05 just as the US bubble was peaking.
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chip Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
“Given they (Japan) are dealing with demographic issues that are only just arriving on North American shores their economy is doing quite up well.”
Depends how you define “well” I guess. Public debt as a share of annual GDP is 194% in Japan. In Canada it’s 64% and in the US it’s 37%.
And it probably comes as a surprise to some, but Japan’s economy is quite inefficient. Sure it has some star exporters, but on the domestic front the country is very different.
Japan succeeds because it has an amazing work and education ethic. The same goes for Germany and the belt of Protestant countries in northern Europe. This kind of culture will take you a long away.
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patriotz Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Your numbers regarding relative debt/GDP for the US and Canada are way off my sources which show them currently about equal, with the US rising and Canada falling:
http://www.budget.gc.ca/2007/bp/bpa2e.html
OECD
Note also that Japan’s government debt, while high, is entirely internal, which means that borrowing and debt service is a domestic issue for Japan. It is the opposite for the US of course.
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misanthropic curmudgeon Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
depends on what you define as excessive ….
http://tinyurl.com/6plbrm
Plans were then drawn up for what will be the world’s largest and most expensive home: a 27-story skyscraper in downtown Mumbai with a cost nearing $2 billion
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chip Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Mine are 2007 estimate figures and from here:
http://start.csail.mit.edu/mirror/cia.gov/library/
publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186.html
Last updated in late March. It could be a difference in defining public debt: eg, inclusion of state and municipal or not.
Yes, borrowing is a mostly domestic concern for the Japanese. The buyers of its debt are local pension funds, the postal bank (the world’s biggest bank) and other banks and govt-run institutions. They are forced through coercion and otherwise to fund the national government’s liabilities. But I’m not sure I would want to be holding these bonds considering the overall debt load, weak growth and aging population.
In other words, the ramifications of Japan’s debt crisis are magnified on the domestic level, whereas the US has outsourced much of the risk.
Sure, the US could see a major withdrawal of investment but this begs the question of where these investors could go in an anemic global economy. Fundamentally, the US still has a very dynamic economy, fueled by world-beating productivity gains.
Personally, I think the worst is over for the US economy and dollar. Jobs data isn’t awful. GDP still hasn`t gone negative. The credit crisis is largely contained. And a recent survey of FX traders even showed a net balance expecting a stronger dollar going forward.
I recently moved into US equities again. So far I’ve been fortunate. I rode the Chinese market for a 100% gain in the two years till October 2007, went into cash before their 30% fall, and now I’m into the US.
Time will tell.
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Michael Randallbard Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Sean O’Grady: Hooray! House prices are falling again
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Anonymous Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
I know the US has some problems but I really believe that they will at least make a partial comback. May not be the world leader in years to come but they will be back.
As for Canada I think our only glimmering hope right now is Oil.
This is where history comes in handy. Everyone thinks the economy was really bad in the US during the last depression, but it was much much worse for Canada. If the US is going down Canada is economically doomed, it’s the curse of a resource rich economy. Do you think the economics of shipping oil etc to China or anywhere other than the US make sense at historical prices?
Also don’t forget that the loonie soared in value vs the USD in a relatively short period of time with no fundamental explanation, it could plummet just as quickly.
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Tony Danza Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
^ that was me
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Raincouver Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
.
alexcanuck, that was an amazing blast from the past…
Premonitions of a bubble on the verge of popping do not ruffle those who are bullish on real estate. In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.
“South Florida,” he said, “is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.”
That was just 3 years ago. Look at it now.
Thanks for the ‘history’ lesson
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krrish2 Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Tony,
You forgot to transfer jobs from residential construction to non residential construction projects where construction industries are heading towards 2020.
Bdk,
The sun did not add your comment because you are not a DJ.
Alexcanuck,
I have heard at chipos site that Mish,Mohican,and Garth Turner are home owners,They are small agent for banks they advice people to invest in bounds or stocks where in case of leverage people are having 100% hair cuts but in housing sectors every one is able to survive even in a case of crash.
misanthropic curmudgeon,
“I haven’t been a perma-bear, but I’m genuinely scared here, and want to know.
inquiring minds have the same questions”
what question?why don’t you explore your thought instead of being lip tight btw why your english is better than anybody else?is it because you write to short or are you really out of oxford or harvard?
bdk do you like to shed some light on this?
Sonika,
Sorry no mail 4 you today.
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Raincouver Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
.
Japan succeeds because it has an amazing work and education ethic. The same goes for Germany and the belt of Protestant countries in northern Europe. This kind of culture will take you a long away.
Yeah, sure. It’s taken us to where we are right now. You’ve suggested hive-mentality and Prussian group-think as a model for humanity. Very original.
Back to real estate….
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patriotz Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Do you think the economics of shipping oil etc to China or anywhere other than the US make sense at historical prices?
Well yes. We’ve been shipping coal to Japan and Korea for decades now, and its value/shipping cost is way lower than for oil.
Anyway I think the US will be buying all our oil exports for the foreseeable future, even if their total consumption drops. They’d much rather keep buying from us and reduce their imports from Venezuela and the Middle East, for reasons that I think are obvious.
Also don’t forget that the loonie soared in value vs the USD in a relatively short period of time with no fundamental explanation, it could plummet just as quickly.
The fundamental explanation is oil. And anyway, a lower CAD is positive for exports, as everyone knows. The problem is that the high CAD is the only protection we have against US-generated inflation. Inflation in Canada would be disastrous on the interest rate front.
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Raincouver Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
.
The problem is that the high CAD is the only protection we have against US-generated inflation. Inflation in Canada would be disastrous on the interest rate front.
patriotz -
Quick question. Do you have idea where ‘inflation’ is coming from?
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patriotz Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20551
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Anonymous Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Also don’t forget that the loonie soared in value vs the USD in a relatively short period of time with no fundamental explanation, it could plummet just as quickly.
I think there is a very compelling reason why the loonie has moved towards par – rising oil and gas prices. Energy products are our largest export group (at least in Feb) and I believe there is a good correlation between changes in energy prices and our exchange rate.
And, according to a story tonight on bloomberg, the commodity “bubble” is not quite over yet thanks to electrical shortages in producing nations.
Given the huge capital that these countries need to build their productive infrastructure, I think Bob’s buyers are going to have some competition for mortgage money over the next year or two. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
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Patiently Waiting Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 2:12 am
I should be appalled by the violation of his rights and I usually oppose the War on Drugs, but I can’t make myself sympathetic to this clown. I mean, how can we hassle China when suburban jerks in Canada are this wasteful of electricity:
http://tinyurl.com/6nn2ec
“I’m now on medication to keep calm because my temper was getting up,” he said. “I was on sleeping pills for a while because I couldn’t sleep. It’s affected my health.”
He said his electricity costs were high because his home has a 40-by-20-foot electrically heated outdoor swimming pool, an electric sauna and “three kids who don’t turn off a light and leave TVs playing all over the house and wear clothes once, then put them through the wash.”
———–
Get ready for the sob story articles when guys like this are foreclosed on. How much do you wanna bet he drives a SUV?
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Strataman Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 8:15 am
“suburban jerks in Canada are this wasteful of electricity:” Don’t be discriminatory now; Urban Jerks are no better! I’m troubleshooting in a huge Yaletown strata right now full of Hummers, Porches and the like, kept and used constantly just for image as opposed to commuting! Surveying the parkade I would say well over 85% of the vehicles are gas guzzling status symbols. Most of them are leaving now; to drive to their corporate parking downtown a few blocks away. (Don’t want to get their Gucci’s dirty). By the way I walk to these customers with all my tools (electronics) in a back pack!:-)
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Patiently Waiting Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Wow, I thought the whole idea of living downtown was to save on car expenses.
One nice thing about housing crashes is the property rich will lose the most wealth. All housing will fall roughly the same amount, so we will see some major pain for those who will lose a million or so in equity.
Meanwhile, at the Quattro in Surrey:
“At least half the buyers intend to live in the suites they purchased,” he said.
http://tinyurl.com/3zbowo
And out in Abby, new leaky townhouses at Junction Creek:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....83520.html
“Avoiding buying in this townhouse complex, JUNCTION CREEK, at all costs. I did and I got ripped off royally. They leak, they are supposed to be new, they were never repaired properly and now some of them have burned down! The developer and the realtor DO NOT STAND BEHIND THEIR PRODUCTS! iF YOU HAVE BOUGHT THERE OR ARE THINKING OF BUYING ONE, PLEASE CALL ME FIRST! 604 XXX XXXX”
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Anonymous Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
GDP still hasn`t gone negative.
That’s the biggie. Recession now officially overdue. What if it doesn’t come after all?