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May 2nd, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Wow, looking at those charts, it really really looks as though the writing is on the wall.
Still, I’m a sceptic, that’s why I’m here after all. June 1st, we will know for sure by then.
May 2nd, 2008 at 4:12 pm
bctv has a teaser piece on the new numbers just now, and they had a visual of Spectrum along with the lady saying that there may be a dent in Vancouver’s ‘red-hot’ housing market.
Spectrum!….I loved it.
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I’ve posted charts and analysis on the REBGV numbers at http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:31 pm
My comments from above were tongue-in-cheek…more of a jab at 24 and the Sun for running with one or two month’s of price growth data and projecting it two years forward…
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
For further clarification:
April had 22 business days (Mon to Fri) in 2008 & 19 days in 2007 (taking into account the easter holiday).
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:15 pm
“What? April has 30 days every year, unless you move to bizzaro-universe.”
I think days of business was meant to be implied.
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Are house prices heading for a 1990s-style crash?
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:09 pm
.
Amazing what some bulls will stoop to, but reducing the number of days in April has to top all.
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
“April this year has fewer days than last year ”
What? April has 30 days every year, unless you move to bizzaro-universe.
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Take it easy with these figures. We only get the averages, not the spread, and it’s not clear how significant the drop is (how does it compare to other monthly fluctuations?). Regarding volume, I have heard that April this year has fewer days than last year (not that I am convinced that makes any difference, since maybe sales and listings are just processed on different days of the month). Also the drop is in SFH, not condos, presumably smaller volumes of these turn over.
I’m expecting the downturn, but I’m don’t see the “smoking gun” in this report, or, to be honest, in paul boenisch’s fabulous data… yet.
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Benchmarks still up. Everything is fine.
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:59 pm
I see in the Vancouver Sun MLS April numbers article it quotes board president Dave Watt as saying
“residential sales continue to be strong, but there is a lot more choice on the market today”.
That’s an interesting perspective given that sales fell 5% yr/yr according to the article.
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Just saw the news flash on vancouversun.com, April 2008 averaged detached price at $880,844 down from $919,593 in March 2008. Yes, detached market down about four percent in one month.
Sorry bulls, game is over. Sell, sell, sell now before the real panic hits in a couple of months. All markets move on greed and fear, looks like panic & fear have begun to arrive. Bottom line, if you are a seller now, cut your price immediately by 10 percent and beat the rush to the exits and maybe you will find sucker to buy your place!!!!
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Hughz are you suggesting the Sun “look out to the downside”?
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Well, looks like the April figures are out:
http://tinyurl.com/5yune7
Although it is not clear what is being measured in the average detached price, it is down 4% from March (i.e. annualized drop of about 50%).
I wonder if the local rags will now report that the average price of detached homes will be $220,000 by 2010 to counter their claim of a few months ago that it would hit one million. Something tells me not…
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Whoa! now it looks like ALL the comments are back! There are tons complaining about the comment deletion including duplicates. Why won’t they just post a note explaining what happened? Could it be that attention from several blogs and the CBC motivated a reversal?
Just in case they have another ‘problem’ I’ll post the comments that I can currently see (without duplicates) onto digi’s post:
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....c.php?t=52
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Anybody catch this comment in the vancouver sun myth special:
Krrish2Wed, Apr 30, 08 at 03:49 PM
Almost in decade-In vancouver rates of pay has increased three time higher,fuel-energy cost is up three times,grocery prices are up three times,gold prices are up three times so does the average home prices in Vancouver up three times,unemployment rates are down,interest rates are low,low,low and another cuts are on the finger tips, immigration and migration showing no sign of slow down,no more land in vancouver.no downturn in decades to come in vancouver bc bpe
There you have it folks incomes have trippled, in the last decade, and I guess the rest of the post holds true as well.
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:18 pm
jadeeast, there are many people paid to promote real estate, but as far as I know none that are paid to cut through the hype. How many people in Vancouver have full time jobs with income that is directly related to promoting the real estate market?
That’s why you’ll always hear more ‘pro-market’ sentiment than caution. Of course that leads to those hillarious graphs showing cheerleaders like Learah proclaiming a market bottom regularly as US house prices continue to crash, or those shockingly bad local news predictions on the Vancouver market just before previous crashes.
That said I’d still vote for Pope to give them a call, it would be great to hear this issue get some airtime.
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
You think those comments are selectively chosen? If thats the case then the sentiment on real estate in this town has taken a dramatic change for the worse. I only see two positive comments on the article – one from kathy claiming that the ‘facts’ are uncontroversial and one from krrish making his regular incoherent ramblings. If those are the only positive comments they had to select from that this market is about to crash hard.
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
MLS# V687842 Sqft Fin. 837
Current Price $339,900 Listed Feb 1/08
Original Price $339,000 Entered Feb 7/08 Feb 11/08 $345,000 Status Chgd May 1/08
Feb 1/08 $339,000
Sale Date Apr 22/08 Sale Price $326,800
This one sounds like a 4% drop and there are a lot of condos around SFU ….
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
.
.
Thanks for the re-opened Vancouver Sun link pope.
However, I could’nt help but notice that the comments are more selectively chosen than ever.
It might be worth the effort to test their biased scrutiny and report back to us….Thanks
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:57 am
I think what the Pope said about remaining out of the spotlight is one of the reasons it’s been hard for a bearish POV to appear in the MSM. Mostly the local voices that have been bearish are anon posters on blogs,that makes quoting them as sources a bit difficult. I completely understand the popes position and feelings about remaining out of the spotlight and taking the heat. Not everyone is a Garth Turner…
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
men who have recently moved to Canada are now making 63 cents to the dollar.
This is obviously false, everyone knows that rich immigrants are flooding our shores and snapping up multiple 400 sqft condos in downtown Whalley!
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
<<<<<<<<ONE MYTH AT A TIME EXPOSED<<<<<<<<<<<
There must be some misunderstanding; there must be some kind of a mistake, and not the same that Phil Collins is referring to.
I am talking about the income growth.
The RE pimps have been citing income growth as one of the main drivers of real estate prices, and now it appears that there must have been some kind of miscalculation.
Interesting, maybe we aren’t running out of land
either, and maybe the rich immigrants aren’t so rich, and maybe Bill Good, Muir, Pastrick and others have been given the wrong information, what other possible explanation could there be?
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
Anon 11:01 – I did see the note from mariana of the CBC.. Sorry to dissapoint, but I’m not really a ‘spotlight’ kind of guy so I won’t be calling. If anyone else feels knowledgeable about the situation and can explain it on the radio in clear calm terms, go ahead and give them a call, they may set you up as a guest.
BUT check this out: Whether it was a technical problem or intentional deletion some of the comments are now back online, and look who posted the indecipherable bullish comment number 7, It’s our local regular Krrish:
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....038;k=5982
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:17 am
I thought the “living in shipping containers” was a joke… apparently not. Nothing surprises me anymore in this housing market.
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:15 am
.
.
.
“Six to nine months. That is how real estate markets have gone in the past and that is how they went in the USA”
Oh really??
In 1981, our market started to drop about a month after inventory spiked, and it dropped more than 30% in less than a year. In 1990, it dropped more than 20% in less than a year.
US markets that that started to drop later than the earlier ones, dropped at a faster rate than the earlyer ones. That’s obviously because they were not hampered by the uncertainties of the first ones to drop.
Vancover has a history of extremes in both directions, and judging by the insanity of our bubble we will certainly live up to our reputation.
May 2nd, 2008 at 11:01 am
Hey Pope,
Did you see the comment at the end of the Vancouver Sun/Missing Comments Post by someone from CBC Early Morning edition? If so, are you planning on contacting them?
(Hoping you do).
BTW. Love your blog!
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
Very interesting. We rent downtown in a great building. Our rent is very tiny compared to what the mortgage payment would be on a 25/40 year loan, even with 20% down. Not planning on buying for a while as this market is just insane, and about to tank (imho). Anyway, take a look at this link: http://6717000.com/bentley/mls-138.html
This building usually had a handful (less than 5) units on sale whenever I checked over the past few years. Now, when I walk by, there are always listings taped to the door. The panic is on as people are looking to get out. The pricing competition may get fierce if people are trying to sell before the crash.
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:56 am
that would require actual work, not simply cutting and pasting press releases
That reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from Scott Adams:
“Reporters are faced with the daily choice of painstakingly researching stories or writing whatever people tell them. Both approaches pay the same.”
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
“The Statistics Canada report shows that while a recent immigrant, man or woman, made 85 cents for every dollar made by a similar Canadian-born worker in 1980, men who have recently moved to Canada are now making 63 cents to the dollar. Recent immigrant women made only 56 cents to every dollar in 2005.”
Oh great, our screwed-up immigration policies are creating an ethnic powder keg in our major cities. I fear for the future.
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:33 am
err, jesse,
that would require actual work, not simply cutting and pasting press releases …
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:27 am
From the Sun article: “Earnings down, but house affordability is level”
WTF? This is a new low for spin. I didn’t think it was possible. But then entered Robyn. At least the Sun could find some dissenting opinions on the matter.
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 am
Flipping in Cloverhole?
That’s a no brainer. They’ve got the CLOVERDALE RODEO!
http://www.cloverdalerodeo.com/
This is like the alignment of the stars be-because you have rich, oily Albertans coming to town. Maybe you can rent out your condo for a thousand dollars a weekend on Craigslist.
Olympics Shmolympics–the rodeo rides in to town every year.
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:53 am
40 year is already 91% interest, so that well is pretty much dry.
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Sorry if i repeat one of the links
…most Canadians don’t think we even have a Subprime market in Canada. 40 years mortage with 0 down doesn’t exists, neither Santa Clause but we still receive gifts on Christmas
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008.....subprimes/
… are you ready to let BoC steal your money directly from your pocket?
The same crime is being committed all over the world. Time to call your MP’s, Canadians.
Carney seeks wider powers for Bank of Canada
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/Business
…no recession here? Really? We are different and wrapped up in our magic bubble? Did i say bubble?
Carney ‘confident’ Canada will dodge recession
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=485409
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:34 am
Woah! Look at that spin! Is that Robyn Adamache formerly of the whirling dervishes? Incomes down, house prices up, but affordability is just the same as it ever was? Okaaaay…. Riiiiight.
How about introducing some new 100 year mortgages now?
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:22 am
Here’s a good unbiased take on the census income data:
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....b3e0e68aa2
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
Man, I feel like I’m at the grand opening of the Metrotown Save-on Foods back in the 80’s.
Watching from the outside.
LOL! I remember that day very well. Apt analogy.
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:56 am
Before trying to figure out what Krrish means or debating the point you think he/she may be trying to make please read this:
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....c.php?t=48
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:37 am
RICH R GETTING RICHER VS POOR’S R GETTING POORER
Who is sitting out after sold?
Who is waiting for crash?
Would you like to be poor?
That saying above remind people to ACT ON TIMELY MANNERS or face the after math called afordability,just think about it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fs_WjstsqV4
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
“when will the prices finally fall off the cliff? I am tired of waiting!”
Six to nine months. That is they real estate markets have gone in the past and that is how they went in the USA. When listings explode and sales drop, price drops are only six to nine months away.
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:28 am
Hey Patriotz, just to clarify I meant $2/sq ft for Downtown Vancouver,you know where they have cafes and where action is!
I go to Surrey once every two or three years and have never tried to rent out or rent anything there so I’m being like one of those baby bears on here spouting off without any evidence to back it up.
All I know about all these pre sales is that a lot of people who won’t qualify for mortgages now only have a few weeks to sell and make their “easy hundred grand” before the developer restricts assignments and it’s going to get messy.
It could be different in Cloverdale, maybe they’ve de coupled from the economy like other world class suburbs such as Yokohama….
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:07 am
Hey anonymous – Thanks for the question, the polls I run on this site are hosted locally and not run by any external polling website. I use a wordpress plugin that keeps things local, so I’m the only one that has access to the data (I tend not to trust external sites either). As you can probably tell by the history of this site I have no interest in ‘de-anonymizing’ anyone or data-mining. Of course if you don’t trust me you don’t need to take part in any of the polls.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:49 am
The Pope,
Have you read the privacy information on these polls your linking to your blog?
You may mean well, but the polling website maybe collecting all this personal information on your bloggers for their own purposes.
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:47 am
decent renters will easily be able to take their pick of downtown units for $2/sq ft. which IMHO means that Cloverdale rents can’t get higher than that.
Try “can’t get higher than half that”.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....73072.html
Man, I feel like I’m at the grand opening of the Metrotown Save-on Foods back in the 80′s.
Watching from the outside.
May 1st, 2008 at 9:34 pm
when will the prices finally fall off the cliff? I am tired of waiting!
May 1st, 2008 at 9:06 pm
“He says that there are no decent places to live there so rents are high. ”
When this building completes 85% of the building will be for rent or for sale and the units that end up being occupied by first time buyers should cause a rental suite somewhere else to be vacated, are there any other projects in Cloverdale or Langley under construction?
History has shown that rental markets can loosen up rapidly once new product hits the market.
In Downtown Vancouver it only took 900 completed units to crash the rental market as Spectrum 1-4 demonstrated when it flooded the market and it’s going to be followed by another 8-10,000 more!
It is going to be a renters market downtown for years to come and decent renters will easily be able to take their pick of downtown units for $2/sq ft. which IMHO means that Cloverdale rents can’t get higher than that.
But I only know about the Vancouver market and know nothing about the suburbs or the rich foreigners who’re flocking here to pay infinity rent on places .
Are there any cafes or restaurants in Cloverdale?
maybe Cloverdale is where the action is!!
May 1st, 2008 at 8:43 pm
I was at school on Wednesday night and one of the guys there is also a real estate agent. He’s selling a 4 storey development in Cloverdale and is of the opinion that prices will never fall here. He’s sold pre-sales to 2 people in my class and one of those buyers has brought in her dad and another friend. I asked them if they were planning on moving to Cloverdale and they replied “no, i’ll just hang on to it and flip it in a year or two.” Gotta love their confidence.
Anyone know the Cloverdale market? The agent was telling me that you can rent these places for $1.90 / square foot. He says that there are no decent places to live there so rents are high. This appears over the top to me.
I don’t bother to challenge their thinking. He’s made a small fortune flipping properties over the past 3 years, and the others are so naive that i don’t want to burst any bubbles.
May 1st, 2008 at 8:28 pm
On a side note, I’m thinking about running another poll on monday, maybe on debt and credit rating. If you have suggestions on which questions and answer options you’d like to see there feel free to post them. Suggestions for future poll topics are welcome as well.