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May 3rd, 2008 at 6:37 pm
The anti-Tsur is Chris Thornberg in California. While at the UCLA business school’s Anderson Forecast he called a spade a spade right back in 2005:
http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/thornberg.html
Interestingly Thornberg left the business school in 2006 to pursue, cough, “other opportunities”.
Of course people like Shiller and Krugman were also calling the bubble at the same time, but they were tenured ivory tower academics in economics departments (as opposed to business schools), so the bulls could just write them off as out of touch.
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
“Geesh, my comment was based on the days the RE board uploads stats not the 24/7 hours of RE agents.”
“My wife is a realtor … since when do they care about “business days”. They do more business on weekends than during the week.’
1. The RE board work week, ought not matter. They simply process more the days after long weekend. It does matter when the month closes on weekend or long weekend.
2. Don’t forget that offers and acceptance are made before completion (which is when the sale is booked). I can’t see a shortened month affecting completions. It would simply be moved back or forward a few days.
3. What I can see happening is that offer and acceptance becomes delayed. Realtors may be willing to work Easter and what have you, but I don’t think house hunters do.
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Higher end Westside inventory, as per MLS:
Point Grey, 3rd May, last three years:
2006 – 21
2007 – 31
2008 – (drumroll) 65
Small sample, but I’d say this was VERY significant.
Also note lots of SFHs being built in this area, in groups of two or three at times. So, even more inventory is coming. Not to mention those homeowners who are now going to try and realize those paper ‘gains’ before retirement.
So much for the high-end being more resilient.
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
As if the troll has ever said anything relevant. He just admitted to stalking a fellow blogger on this site, most likely to ask him out on a date.
BTW
The Vancouver Sun says:
“Your chances of having your comments posted are much better if you use proper grammar, spelling and punctuation. ” So they’ll post fictitious and incoherent chubby retarded trolls comments but won’t post mine?
May 3rd, 2008 at 3:12 pm
.
Hey ‘tard if that really was you, tell your mom I said hi.
Oh and nice jiggly man – boobs.
Excellent commentary about RE. Totally pertinent.
May 3rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
What was he doing in your building?
My source tells me he lives with his Mum and walks around Marinaside telling people he’s a DJ.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
BDK:
I actually think I saw him leave my old building. If he’s the guy I think, he’s sort of a chubby, doughy Indian / Asian guy in his 20s with sorta longish greasy disheveled hair and a truly retarded expression.
Seriously.
And the weird thing was I kind of thought it might be him at the time,
Hey ‘tard if that really was you, tell your mom I said hi.
Oh and nice jiggly man – boobs.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
“Disclaimer: I have worked with Somerville in an academic capacity and found him to be as intellectually sharp as a rubber mallet.”
Interesting. I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt. I will admit to Google Scholar-ing him…his publication and citation record is a pretty underwhelming.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:36 pm
I am pretty ambivalent about Somerville – I think he is probably smarter than I give him credit for and probably (hopefully) recognized the unsustainable conditions of the past few years as such.
There were quite a few academic economists that identified the RE bubble early on in the US, you can find out who they were on the HBB. Somerville is a shill for the REIC and couldn’t tell a fundamentally broken RE market from his a$$hole. Of course once things go to hell he’ll indentify the bubble and prognosticate to the upside.
Disclaimer: I have worked with Somerville in an academic capacity and found him to be as intellectually sharp as a rubber mallet.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Just came back from a couple of open house. It is dead out there. No offers. No viewers. This is getting boring.
Best advice to provide your client is to price their property sharply. Aways be ahead of the curve. In a falling market, you need to price below market.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Are they processing listings today? I received an automated email from a realtor’s VOW search just now. Those only seem to go out on days when listings are being added…
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:04 pm
The latest numbers seem to confirm that things are about to head south; however, unsustainable trends can continue on longer than expected especially when fuelled by massive private debt (40 year mortgage anyone?). This was a thought raised Marc Faber in his last newsletter where he referenced Steve Keen’s Aussie blog debtwatch. http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
Towards the middle of the latest entry you will see a measure of Aussie house prices that pulled back in 2004 then actually rose just as the USA hit its peak. Now, according to some of the local bloggers I read at the globalhousepricecrash forum, it seems things in Oz may be leveling out again according to first quarter sales figures.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
“Actually, he is saying it in “professor speak”, but with all those credentials, should’nt he have been able to warn us a couple of years ago?”
I am pretty ambivalent about Somerville – I think he is probably smarter than I give him credit for and probably (hopefully) recognized the unsustainable conditions of the past few years as such.
At the same time, he is certainly hemmed in by the fact that he works at Sauder’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate…which is underwritten by the Real Estate Foundation of BC. Likewise for his professorship …underwritten by the same people. One shouldn’t bite the hand that feeds them.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Krissh is in the denial stage of bubble psychology.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
The end must be nigh, I can actually understand Krissh’s posts.
In 2005, there were 601,510 full-time workers raking in $100K-plus salaries — a 26 per cent jump over 2000.
Most of these are supported by RE bubble prices and construction, so enjoy it while it lasts, you’ve probably got another six months (if you’re in RE services) and maybe a year or two if you’re in construction (small developers probably have six months before they start going BK).
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Krissh can be found flipping burgers at one of the McDs in Vancouver. He’s just a keyboard warrior.
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
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.
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About that Chipman listig:
Three quarters of a mil for a teardown on a busy street for cryin out loud!
May 3rd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Scullboy if the troll was stalking you. What was he planning to do if he found you? Ask you out on date?
Does anyone here know where Krissh works or lives?
May 3rd, 2008 at 11:08 am
Our Day of Reckoning is coming, fellow Bears! Soon we’ll be watching all these overpriced condo owners thrown out onto the streets, while banks teeter on the edge of collapse. Woohoo!!!! Then us Bears can come in and scoop up a foreclosed condo for 60% OFF! Can’t wait until that day comes!
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 am
.
.
“Just can’t come out and say it, can you Tsur?”
Actually, he is saying it in “professor speak”, but with all those credentials, should’nt he have been able to warn us a couple of years ago?
BTW, you guys seen that shitbox Chipman is trying to unload for three quarters of a mil in east Van? In east Van for cryin out loud!
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 am
Patriotz,
Good point, the journalist could have done a better job research the tenants rights etc. I found it curious that rights weren’t mentioned in the article. I think CB Development still owns the units so it must be them (and their realtors) who are engaging in the scare tactics.
These seniors need an advocate who knows the law.
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 am
Riverbend developer sells off apartments guaranteed for a loan, so seniors may lose homes.
Change of ownership does not impair tenancy rights. The renters can only be required to leave for a new owner-occupier and there are required procedures to be followed.
The article doesn’t say, but I would think the provision of rental housing was required by the city as a condition of granting the development permit. No developer would provide rental units otherwise – the yield is too low. If so, it’s likely that the new owner would be bound by this too.
I get the distinct impression that the new owner is trying to scare the seniors into buying because they don’t want to, or may not be able to, list the properties on the open market.
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 am
Panel:
Neil Chrystal, President & CEO, Polygon Homes Ltd. (Moderator)
Eric Carlson, President & CEO, Anthem Properties Ltd.
Jon deC Evans, President & CEO, Trilogy Properties Corporation
Steve Laver, President, Playground Limited Partnership
Ward McAllister, President & CEO, Ledingham McAllister Properties Ltd.
The only unbiased commentator missing was Bill Good.
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 am
“The panel was unanimous: There is no bubble” and other goodies from the 2008 Vancouver Real Estate Forum here.
May 3rd, 2008 at 9:52 am
http://www.bclocalnews.com/tri.....68369.html
Riverbend developer sells off apartments guaranteed for a loan, so seniors may lose homes.
“Craig Lochhead, a director of Riverbend’s developer, CB Development, said the Maillardville apartment units were used as guarantees for a loan from CareVest and, now, company assets are being liquidated to satisfy its debt.
“As we were trying to save Riverbend, basically, we continued to pledge assets that we owned,” Lochhead said Wednesday. “We’re very sad that not only are those people being displaced from their homes but that we’re losing another million dollars worth of real estate that we owned as a result of Riverbend.””
May 3rd, 2008 at 9:15 am
you are one creepy little gimp.
so are you two de-coupling?
May 3rd, 2008 at 9:00 am
Had dinner with some friends in the R/E market. they claim that the condo market in vancouver has dropped 5% in past couple of months. This is pretty reliable source. It’s going downhill from here.
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:57 am
Krrish,
Let me get this straight: you went to my old building and checked up on me? Jesus Christ you are one creepy little gimp.
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:20 am
Hi Krrish I must tell you I am somewhat disappointed in you.
You dropped the price! on the Rupert joint, what kind of a sales professionals are you guys?
Did you point out to the potential buyers:
We are running out of land,and of course BC’s economy is the world’s economic engine. with explosive income and population growth.
East Vancouver is the preferred destination of the world’s jet set crowd because it has Trout Lake, Commercial Drive, and oh yeah, a short drive, from the Rupert place, is Victoria and Hastings, where you can get a hooker and a bag of weed, for under $100 CDN of course.
Maybe you guys aren’t the professinal you claim to be. You are just “order takers” at the first sign of a sales challenge you drop the price.
May 3rd, 2008 at 7:47 am
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.
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Wow, just wanted to say you are doing a fine job at “the
other” site, keep it going buddy, this time looks like you got “sly” and are using the FOX program and the dogs can’t censure you.
May 3rd, 2008 at 7:36 am
Bdk,
Canadian Giants going to develop a huge net to trap walmart because walmart have difficult location in the menu that would be hard for cunsumers to reach there and Canadian Giants will take advantage of that they are going to do the following.
1.Each Giant will establish 20 small store at the size of an extra food store or market place in downtown or west side or like the one you can see on your way to whistler.
2.All employees at CG will get 10% permanent discount to shop in their stores.
3.Because of these new net D.C. jobs are their to stay plus the rates of pay will increase more every 500 hours by $1.10- for all those extra stores Gaints will creat more jobs for all new store good for the public and big competition for Giants.
May 3rd, 2008 at 6:47 am
“The rise in listings “is consistent with people believing they’re at the [market] peak and are rushing to sell before market conditions change,” Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate at the Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., said in an interview.
Somerville added that the normal model of an economic cycle heading into a downturn sees sales drop while new-listing activity plateaus.”
Executive summary: the bubble has burst.
Just can’t come out and say it, can you Tsur?
May 3rd, 2008 at 4:54 am
Sun: Real Estate listings up 53%
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....mp;k=66458
Obligitory Spin: “It took an average of six fewer days to sell a home than it did in the previous year,” Watt said. “That is probably as telling as anything.”
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Good Cut and paste from Greater fool blog note the similarity between these 2 statements and the dates they were made:
David Lereah – NAR Chief Economist – MAY 2006
“Coming off a prolonged period of record sales, housing is taking something of a breather this year. Even so, interest rates remain historically low, we’ve added about 2 million jobs over the last 12 months and the economy continues to grow – that will sustain healthy levels of home sales in 2006, but they’ll stay below the peaks experienced during the last two years.”
Gregory Klump – CREA Chief Economist – JANUARY 2008
“The Canadian housing market in 2008 will pull back from the breakneck pace set in 2007, but this is still forecast to be the second-busiest year on record in almost all provinces, with residential unit sales reaching an estimated 512,705 units. Average prices for MLS® home sales are expected to keep setting records in
2008, although prices will increase more slowly as the market becomes more balanced. In most provinces, the market will nevertheless remain historically tight; with the tightest markets being in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Nationwide, the average residential price is forecast to increase 5.5 per cent to about $322,700.”
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Hey Sonika,
how you doing what a entery with bang!!!!! bombarding with pimps and child abuse even after long absence the sense is not in control,where have you been?
I was looking at chilko but found out you are out from there to some new building.
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Weird….. that last one wasn’t me.
But thanks krrish for all your entertaining posts. I’m quite looking forward to whatever drivel you choose to post in the coming crash…
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
krrish2 admits to being an IDIOT?
Why isn’t THIS in the Vancouver Sun?
This is HUGE!!!!!
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:36 pm
“3. Krrish2 for admitting to being an idiot”
It’s not me i think some one looking for more rant i will put mise in his/ her pant!!
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Although I’m loath to do so – I must give credit when its due:
1. Vancouver Sun for reposting the comments that totally trash their garbage of last week;
2. Vancouver Sun for publishing an article entitled “Greater Vancouve Real Estate sales slip, listings jump” (intead of spinning some bs positive title – even though the statistics within the article are spun to make you dizzy); and
3. Krrish2 for admitting to being an idiot
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:08 pm
ok, ok, I admit I’m an idiot
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:02 pm
look you guys always start draging some point to make counter arguments that’s why message is not getting through in a result you have wasted lots of time talking about bubble but somehow bubble did not show up in rebgv chart.
every one want to over come on each other only together we can make a difference.
Stat from statscan is to show how average people are earning their living if you convert this 42k into 150k still 4.5 million people are not going to buy $38 million worth of pent house on 34th floor.
lots of cheap or expensive things are available on earth but not all people are in need of them nor we have the ability to make 4.5 million houses in bc.
btw people with low income also own their own house or appartments lots of owners are paid off, what you looking in specific is a sq.ft. otherwise story is different compare to income ratio. people are buying homes -thats why market is going up ,if you based your fact on statscan report market should be dead after 1982,this is may 2008.
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Geesh, my comment was based on the days the RE board uploads stats not the 24/7 hours of RE agents.
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Watch Mr.A go from $52,000 to $15,495 after he’s laid off and has to go work at Wal Mart in 2009.
Which means he’s now earning one third of what was making and has to pay three times as much for stuff as he did in 1997.
A)How does Mr.A afford his mortgage?
As I just proved all wages will go down 70% in 2009
vancouver bpe
also watch mr.b go from $30,000 to $9,990.
someone shed some light on this
Prices go down for decades to come
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Krrish you get caughted making big untrue again.
Average tax filer went from 38k 1993 to 52k 2003, that does not compute with your usual lies.
Also that is not inflation adjusted.
The truth is you RE pimps outright lie.
Incomes in Vancouver are lower than most cities in Canada, and housing costs are one of the highest in the world.
The metrics are worse than just before the crash of 81
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:23 pm
may be that was not appropriate analsis here we got mr. a who has earned $15,496 in 1997 same mr a $52,000 in 2007.
mr b $27,040 in 1997 $104,000 in 2007. there might be some of bears with data but no body like to help each other is there any body to show us some light on this issue?
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
A,
Statscan report is for british columbia not for
vancouver alone,42 k is for average british columbians not for individuals.
In 2005, there were 601,510 full-time workers raking in $100K-plus salaries — a 26 per cent jump over 2000.
The jump was even more pronounced among the 206,160 full-time workers who earned $150,000-plus salaries. Their numbers were up nearly 30 per cent in 2005.
here you got base and increased percent in half decade for bc bring it to vancouver and double the increased percentage to full decade,you can feel lots vancouverites income has been trippled in a decade include mine.
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
My wife is a realtor … since when do they care about “business days”. They do more business on weekends than during the week.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
That’ll teach me for skimming comments & trying to be helpful…
;~
May 2nd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
“I think days of business was meant to be implied.”
Chinese realtors don’t celebrate Easter nor do the ever stop working
May 2nd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
He’s right, April had only 23 days this year. I slept through the others
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“April 2008 averaged detached price at $880,844″
VANCOUVER SUCKS this is outrageous, they must think they are Moscow here lolol