Friday Free For All
It’s Friday! Thats the next best thing to the weekend and it also means it’s time for our weekly news round up:
-Condo supply growing faster than population
-~600 new REBGV listings in first week of May?
-Coco’s Things you may want to know
-Welcome to the wild west
-Whats our number one industry?
-It’s good news on the job front
-Canadian housing market cools in April
-Vancouver residents love condo investing
-Beware of home reno ripoffs
-Forestry demand to soar
-Foresters warned to expect more blood
-Canadians fleeing to cash?
-BC exports contract for 3rd year
-The booming bust-vulture industry
-Americans feel gloomy
How ’bout you? How are you feeling as we head into a beautiful spring weekend? What are you seeing out there in the streets? Post your news, links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a great weekend!
note: any conversation on real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. when posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Thanks!
May 8th, 2008 at 10:44 pm 1
Not sure if anyone's mentioned this yet, but Vancouver has once again been named the best city in the world by the Economist:
http://www.economist.com/markets/rankings/display…
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May 8th, 2008 at 10:59 pm 2
"best city in the world … " is an exagerration, as if this was some absolute, objective declaration.
"Vancouver remains the most liveable city", 'liveable' is the term, whatever that means.
yeah, well, Calgary ranks 7th …
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:05 pm 3
Not sure if anyone’s mentioned this yet, but Vancouver has once again been named the best city in the world by the Economist
Right after Melbourne…what's happened to Aussie house prices post Olympics?
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:08 pm 4
Each city is assigned a score for over 30 qualitative and quantitative factors across five broad categories: stability, health care, culture and environment, education, and infrastructure
In other words, without regard to cost of living.
I think the average family would find a house in Ottawa or Halifax more "livable" than a dinky condo in Vancouver.
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:10 pm 5
From their "full report" link (you have to buck up US$200 for the details):
Each city is assigned a score for over 30 qualitative and quantitative factors across five broad categories:
o stability
o health care
o culture and environment
o education
o infrastructure
Each factor in each city is rated as acceptable, tolerable, uncomfortable, undesirable or intolerable. For qualitative indicators, a rating is awarded based on the judgment of in–house analysts and in–city contributors. For quantitative indicators, a rating is calculated based on the relative performance of a number of external data points. The categories are compiled and weighted to provide an overall rating of 1–100, where 1 is considered intolerable and 100 is considered ideal. The report considers that any city with a rating of 80 or more will have few, if any, challenges to living standards.
Yup, Vancouver's pretty darn near perfect when it comes to stability, health care, culture & environment, education and infrastructure… ;-P
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:29 pm 6
what’s happened to Aussie house prices post Olympics?
Sydneys suburbs have seen price drops averaging between $100 to $450 per week since 2004. Of course Vancouver is different so you must remember to make the proper hemisphere adjustments.
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:36 pm 7
Calgary is more livable than Zurich? *scratches head*
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:48 pm 8
Looking at the amount of projects under construction suggests we'll be able to host a few visitors come 2010.
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May 8th, 2008 at 11:56 pm 9
you know, i swear i don't see where the supply is. i mean, i look at the mls and i check out 2 bedroom units, and they don't seem to be any more different from last year. unless the new units are mostly 1 bedrooms or 3 or more?
but then maybe i don't know what i'm doing….
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May 9th, 2008 at 7:14 am 10
SELLERS NEED TO KEEP OPTIMISTIC SPIRIT
There is no downturn in decades to come in vancouver- anybody selling their properties on low prices are alone the losers all the way because the real estate prices in vancouver will countinue to climb through decades on and on.
Still anybody like to sell their property for other reasons keep your prices sharp ,there are lots of buyers in the market and demand countinue to keep up with market for decades to come -because of more selection buyers are looking for decent prices-Vancouver is not expensive compare to any brand name cities of this world but vancouver is more beautiful than them.
"RAIN IS A PLUS POINT FOR VANCOUVER TO REDUCE MORE THAN 20% EMMISSION- LIKE BEAUTY TAKES SHOWER EVERY FEW DAYS AND BECOME FRESH ! FRESH!! FRUITY! FRUITY!!".
Ask nyc ask sfmike ask sonika and his bf ask bdk and tony and lots of bears they all have come to admit that Vancouver B.C.is "The best place on earth"
Blogs can't be better than this unless NYC and SFMIKE turn over the chart opposite from bearish lies of past three year in comparison to Vancouver with any other cities.
American downturn is over and all bearish weapons of real estate anecdotal compare to anecdotal of vancouver real estate has been destroyed,we just need some one to read the statements from bears to admit their defeat, if you choose countinue to battle with BULLS you will be defeated again and again.
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May 9th, 2008 at 7:42 am 11
Not sure if anyone’s mentioned this yet, but Vancouver has once again been named the best city in the world by the Economist
Yeeeehaaa! Get out there and join the line up at 1212 Howe, the Economist loves us!! They really love us!!! The whole world loves us!!!!
Looks like talk of 17k inventory by the end of May is coming to fruition. Plenty of choice for all the billionaire hedgies looking for a pied a terre in the DTES.
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May 9th, 2008 at 7:58 am 12
One of the things that always irks me is in articles like that one about the RE market cooling, whenever they say something bad about real estate they follow it up with something to the effect of "but this is not the same as what's going on in the States."
Perhaps they're right, but the automatic way they spit that addendum out reminds me of "The Manchurian Candidate" when the platoon members would recite some crap about Raymond Shaw (the commie-controlled assassin) being the kindest, most giving person they've ever known.
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May 9th, 2008 at 8:32 am 13
One thing people don't mention when it comes to the Economist livability survey is that it is based of a management salary of ~250k USD a year. It is not some kind of general rating for the average wage earner in the city. If you make quarter of a million dollars a year in salary Vancouver is number one. Hurrah.
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May 9th, 2008 at 8:32 am 14
"For qualitative indicators, a rating is awarded based on the judgment of in–house analysts and in–city contributors. For quantitative indicators, a rating is calculated based on the relative performance of a number of external data points."
I don't doubt that Vancouver is probably on the top of the list, but that first bit is a little dodgey.
Would anyone else care to see some standard errors on this index? I would think that there is no fundamental difference between any of the cities in the top 10 or 20.
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May 9th, 2008 at 8:33 am 15
"Vancouver is not expensive compare to any brand name cities of this world but vancouver is more beautiful than them."
Vancouver is not a brand name city or world class city, lol. It's pretty and if I am Canadian and can afford to live here, sure, why not? At the same time Calgary is up there on the top 10 most livable cities and its probably a lot more affordable.
If I can't afford to live in a beautiful city it ain't so beautiful anymore and Vancouver is really expensive compared to other places in Canada.
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May 9th, 2008 at 8:44 am 16
Check out all the comments on the CIBC story urging people to get their cash into the stock market, I guess the whole ABCP & subprime debt shuffling has got a lot of people nervous:
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTG…
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:47 am 17
Regarding 'vancouverites love condos' – more than half of the people surveyed would buy a condo as an investment rather than to live in? Are there any condos left that will cash flow or is this all speculation on future gains? I thought rents and prices where out of sync, how is anyone making money buying a condo for an investment these days?
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:51 am 18
I'm seeing LOTS of for sale signs out there, I snapped a shot with my phone of 7 signs together near granville island:
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=…
Can anyone beat that number of signs in a single shot?
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:56 am 19
anonymous: they can't make these 'investments' pay based on rent, thats why its a bubble. Actual 'investors' like Ozzie Jurock are staying away from properties in the city at these prices. Jurock said last year that he wouldn't touch downtown condos with a ten foot pole – they're too overpriced for any return you'd get from rent.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:01 am 20
"how is anyone making money buying a condo for an investment these days?"
It's not an investment, it's a capital loss and it will be for decades to come.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:07 am 21
I netted a very nice profit on my condo sale this Spring. May not be able to do that next year, but, it's still possible even now.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:17 am 22
The carnage is just beginning. We took a 1-year lease on a downtown 2-bdrm, 950 sq ft condo. Our rent is very affordable, and we really enjoy it here. The owner has decided to sell-up, and has priced VERY sharply. A unit like this went for around $620 K in late 2006, and the owner is asking for less than a 10% profit on that price. Yup, the party is over. Either he's under huge financial pressure (which I doubt, since he purchased this place on completion), or he recognizes that the gig is up and wants out FAST!
Great thing is that our Property Mgmt company wants to protect our rights, and we are here for the 12 mths + 1 (to find a new place). Offers are failing as investors don't want to touch the place (cash flow is not there without a huge deposit – you'd have to put over 50% down in order to have POSITIVE CASH FLOW!!!). One young couple wanted to buy but can't afford to carry this place, and continue leasing another until our lease runs out.
This is going to be very fun to watch, especially with NO SKIN in the game!
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:22 am 23
Hey Krrish,
While I would agree that Vancouver is a pretty little city, by no means would I say it's the best place on earth. If I were independantly wealthy and could buy anywhere, here is the list of where I would live:
South of France
Anywhere on the Mediterranean
Thailand
NYC
Cabin high in the Rockies
Summer home in the Maritimes
Vancouver's a lovely little town if you make good money. Even if you make average money and don't mind renting you can have a good life. Even more so if you have no kids or dogs.
On other words, it's awesome if you're middle class, gay and you're some kind of knowledge worker.
For everyone else, Calgary's probably a better bet.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:25 am 24
Oh yeah, Krrish you're starting to sound like Tom Vu:
HEY! YOU SELL HOUSE IN VANCOUVER, YOU A LOOOOOO-SAH!
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:33 am 25
Mflat, you can be booted out with two months notice and one month free rent if the new owners intend to occupy the suite.
But don't worry too much, you can easily rent another.
Despite what anyone tells you the market is not tight unless you're a South American party student intending to have 5 people in a one bedroom, you've filed for bankruptcy recently or you have non apartment sized pets.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:35 am 26
it's good to know that the survey is based on $250k salaries – because if I made $250k, I probably would live here forever.
But I don't – so I won't
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:37 am 27
HEY! YOU SELL HOUSE IN VANCOUVER, YOU A LOOOOOO-SAH!
That's awesome.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:38 am 28
I netted a very nice profit on my condo sale this Spring. May not be able to do that next year, but, it’s still possible even now.
Thats true, but if this listings trend continues the window is rapidly closing on profit time. Even if you list now you'll want to price sharply to stand out from all the other properties on the market unless you're selling something very special.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:41 am 29
bdk, that is only true if the current landlord/owner wants to occupy the suite, and he has to do that for a fixed amount of time (which I can't find right now). However, when a NEW owner buys a place, they have no recourse but to observe the full-length of the fixed-term tenancy.
There's lots about selling a tenanted property that is more myth than reality, and only after a day of research yesterday did I realize how safe we are.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:48 am 30
I netted a very nice profit on my condo sale this Spring. May not be able to do that next year, but, it’s still possible even now.
Still possible to sell at a profit. I don't think it's possible to buy now and sell for a profit anytime in the near future. And NYC, I'm still waiting for those tips on how to make a LOT more than savings accounts.
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May 9th, 2008 at 10:52 am 31
Wow, the number of units under construction is incredible! Can't wait for that glut to hit the market, driving prices and rents down.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:04 am 32
"when a NEW owner buys a place, they have no recourse but to observe the full-length of the fixed-term tenancy."
Sorry but you are completely wrong, once the unit is sold the new owner is the landlord and can evict you using form "2 MONTH NOTICE TO END TENANCY FOR LANDLORD’S USE OF PROPERTY Form #RTB – 32"
http://www.rto.gov.bc.ca/
If you've been told otherwise then you were deceived, sorry.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:06 am 33
Yes, it's true that next year I may not be able to sell my new condo for a profit, or even a loss, but, I don't intend to sell this place for a few years as it's my primary residence, not an investment.
danko, are you a RE agent? You seem to know the lingo. My broker priced my condo "sharply", but, still at a good profit, and it sold within 4 days after being listed, 2 days before it was publicly listed. But this was in April. It is a unique property with a water view, which did help. I traded in the view for more square footage on the new place, which I bought for $16K less than the asking price. So, I'm happy. That's a good return on my investment in one year, even if the market softens a lot.
crabman, talk to your banker/broker about ways to make your money go further than the interest you make from a standard savings account. They can advise you better than I.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:07 am 34
Oh and the new owner is supposed to occupy it for one year, although I know of people who moved out after 6 months and 1 day and had no problem.
I also know of new owners who've evicted the tenants and then re rented the unit, but that can get you in hot water if they figure it out.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:10 am 35
"All of the conditions for sale of the rental unit have been satisfied and the purchaser has asked the landlord, in writing, to give this Notice because the purchaser or a close family member intends in good faith to occupy the rental unit"
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:14 am 36
So, are all these condo developers who are building condos whistling past the graveyard, or do they know something we don't? I can't imagine that they would invest so heavily in new buildings if they didn't have some confidence that they could sell them for a good profit. Are all of you saying that they will remain empty? If so, how could these developers have screwed up so much and not seen this coming?
And who is buying these multi-million dollar condos at the Shangrila and Erickson buildings, for example? They are selling! Where are these buyers coming from if everything is so overpriced?
I wonder if anyone ever bought that penthouse at 1000 Beach that was listed for $18 Million? Clearly, there are still lots buyers out there for all this high-priced real estate.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:17 am 37
It's true. If someone buys a place, and wants to move-in or have their family member move-in (mommy/daddy buying an 'investment' unit for son/daughter) then they can kick you out with 2 months notice. If you leave before two months is up, then they have to pay you out to 2 months.
That's one of the Residential Tenancy Acts changes that the Liberals brought in earlier in this decade. Tenants had many more rights, previously.
Of course, this is all true only if you are now month-to-month, if you have a 1yr tenancy which switches to month-to-month, then they have to see it out for the 1yr.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:25 am 38
bdk, I'm not wrong, and have confirmed this with the Prop Mgmt company. As condofever has added, since I'm on a fixed 1 yr term, they have to wait until it expires and switches to month-to-month before they can serve notice. Even then, they are still liable for one month's compensation.
Add one to the tally in favor of renting.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:25 am 39
Regardless of whether there is a lease.
Two months notice and one month free rent.
Call the Residential Tenancy Branch or email them if you need clarification.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:28 am 40
bdk, I've done that, talked to the RTB as well. You are still in error.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:29 am 41
Not in Vancouver you haven;t, I've had to serve notice under these conditions.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:32 am 42
Then your tenant didn't understand his rights. Trust me, the realtors lie about the tenants rights. The RTB documentation is not clear. You have to understand the specific section – Fixed term tenancies:
"Where the tenancy is for a fixed length of time, the Notice to End Tenancy cannot take effect before the end date specified in the tenancy agreement. The tenant also cannot end tenancy earlier than the end date. However, the landlord and tenant can come to an agreement to end the tenancy earlier."
Listen, I understand that other sections may read differently, but once you understand this section it all becomes much clearer.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:42 am 43
nyc, I'm not sure about the local developers, anybody know why developers overbuilt in other cities like San Diego or Miami? They're seeing massive price drops and banks have blacklisted lending on many buildings, why didn't the developers see that coming?
I assume that at least partly its the same speculative mania that individual buyers take part in, the difference is that most developers have a bigger buffer than the buyers. The developer can drop their prices a lot further than an individual and still make a profit or at least break even. The first stage is of course an attempt at hidden price drops where the developer offers special financing, a free car, etc with the purchase of a unit.
High end units like shangrila will always be a different market that the majority. I assume anybody looking at an 18 million penthouse isn't going to have any interest in a 500 sq foot suite at spectrum.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:43 am 44
If so, how could these developers have screwed up so much and not seen this coming?
Why don't you ask the developers in San Diego, anywhere in Florida, Nashville or any other bubble city that has imploded. Do a Google search on your question and you'll find plenty of news articles chronicling the spectacular condo developer blow ups in the US. But don't worry we're different in Vancouver!
nyc, I'm still waiting for your proof that NYC has more crime per capita than Vancouver. I'm moving there shortly and would hate to have the SO think I lied to her when telling her it's safer there than here.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:45 am 45
.
.
nyc asked:
"do condo developers know something we don't?"
Large scale projects can take about 2 years from original commitment to eventual completion, while markets can shift significantly within a couple of months.
Trust me, developers here cannot look into the future any farther than developers could in Miami 3 years ago.
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May 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am 46
nyc, I’m not sure about the local developers, anybody know why developers overbuilt in other cities like San Diego or Miami?
I met with a developer in Scottsdale, AZ right around the peak of the bubble there. I was hoping he bought the land before prices went up, so there would still be a profit potential even if prices fell 20% or so (which I expected at the time). Unfortunately he hadn't, so the project would begin to lose money once prices fell 15% or so. When I mentioned my concern, he was in complete denial; "prices can't go down much, everyone wants to live here, blah, blah, blah". Needless to say, I passed on the project. I have the feeling most developers are like him.
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May 9th, 2008 at 12:01 pm 47
Well, Tony Danza, if you are moving to NYC, you will see firsthand with your own eyes how different it is from Vancouver regarding crime and safety and police presence, etc. You will be watched, searched and interrogated more than you've ever been in your life.
Enjoy the Big Apple! It was a wonderful city before 9-11.
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May 9th, 2008 at 12:07 pm 48
I'm not sure what you're complaining about about nyc, is it too much crime or too many police in NY? It seems to me we could use some more cops on the street here, Vancouver has the highest property crime in North America and a high violent crime rate, how is that preferable to police presence?
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May 9th, 2008 at 12:08 pm 49
Large scale projects can take about 2 years from original commitment to eventual completion, while markets can shift significantly within a couple of months.
If your business is building condos or houses the only choices you have are build and hope for the best or find another line of work. That's why RE is so cyclical, who wants to be the first developer to pack it in in a booming market, eventually you end up with massive supply overhang like we have now.
Everyone is answering your questions nyc can you answer one for me? Why are you asking these questions after you've already bought into the market and have stated that you're quite comfortable with your purchase?
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May 9th, 2008 at 12:15 pm 50
You will be watched, searched and interrogated more than you’ve ever been in your life.
I've spent about ten months total in Manhattan proper since 911 and never been searched or interrogated. Neither has my sister or her husband (he's Jordanian no less) who've lived there (Lower East Side) for going on 10 years. I've seen the reservists in the major subway stations though. I'd rather have a city crawling with law enforcement than junkies and mobsters any day, but that's just me.
You sound like you're a bit paranoid, maybe you got into too much BC Bud before you came here?
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May 9th, 2008 at 1:09 pm 51
.
.
We might be stuck with nyc (the person), but if I have to keep on getting my nose rubbed into nyc (the place), I think I'm gonna PUKE.
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May 9th, 2008 at 1:16 pm 52
nyc: "I can’t imagine that they would invest so heavily in new buildings if they didn’t have some confidence that they could sell them for a good profit"
You would think so but bankrupt developers in places like Florida and California are evidence to the contrary. Cancellations and lack of sales are destroying them.
Though it's worth considering that developers rely on presales to finance their projects and from the contracts I've read in BC it's almost impossible to cancel once you sign on the presale dotted line. Maybe others can comment better. I have often wondered about whether someone can really "walk away" from a presale.
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May 9th, 2008 at 1:36 pm 53
Actually, I think nyc is indicative of one of the key pychological differences between bulls and bears: I've noted that a lot of bulls say "how can so many people be wrong?" or "builders aren't dumb so why would they build?". Rememeber the famuos Rennie quote about VHB? "If the blogger is right than a 1000 people are wrong".
Does this point to a more fundamental difference between the two groups?
I bring this up because I've had several bullish friends make arguements to the same effect in trying to convince me to buy.
It–in my opinion anyhow–takes a lot of guts and self confedence to not buy into this market as soon as you are able to when you see people lining up to buy DT condos yesterday!!
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May 9th, 2008 at 1:41 pm 54
Developers build because that's what they do. Even when a coming correction is obvious, each one thinks they can squeeze out one more project before it crashes. Unfortunately, they all think that.
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May 9th, 2008 at 1:41 pm 55
Mflat, you're right I wasn't thinking!
I worked in a non management role (Peon) at a real estate company for years and years. Had to post eviction notices and deal with tenants who'd taped shut all the drawers and left stinky food out because they were mad that the unit went up for sale.
Once I thought about it what they did was gave them eviction notices two months before the lease expired.
On month to month they had to go, threats to sue aside.
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May 9th, 2008 at 1:55 pm 56
Kelowna listings are up.
SFH's up 29.07% YOY
Condo's up 83.1% YOY
Townhouses up 49.53% YOY
Kelowna sales are down.
SFH's down 19.56% YOY
Condo's down 20.72% YOY
Townhouses down 25.2% YOY
Kelowna's unsold inventory is up dramatically.
SFH's inventory up 44.81% YOY
Condo inventory up 108.38% YOY
Townhouse inventory up 68.64% YOY
Hey, I thought everyone wanted to live there? Perhaps they're selling out and moving to Vancouver before the Olympics?
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May 9th, 2008 at 1:55 pm 57
Now we know why BC is at "top":
"…Forget forestry, fishing and tourism. There are startling new suggestions our province's biggest money maker is organized crime."
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article.jsp?co…
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May 9th, 2008 at 1:58 pm 58
betamax: "Developers build because that’s what they do."
Good point. What would developers do if not developing? I think the smart ones scale back and internalize and the dumb ones won't know any better and go BK. It's so hard to time these things though. I've said it here before: it's very hard to decide that doing nothing is the best option if your job is to do something. Doing nothing can mean layoffs and sometimes losing good talent but the alternative, if you think there's a crash coming, is worse.
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May 9th, 2008 at 2:28 pm 59
bdk, appreciate the concession. Was a lively debate, anyway, no???
Seriously though, the regulations are not written very clearly and I had a hard time making heads or tails of it over the past few days. You had me seriously doubting myself again!!!!
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May 9th, 2008 at 2:52 pm 60
Hey Danza, if you know so much about Manhattan, then why the hell do you keep asking me questions about it and then call me paranoid? Clearly you had a different experience/impression than I did. I lived there for 22 years, you lived there for 10 months. Perhaps therein lies the difference.
So, you have never been searched or interrogated in NYC? Then how did you get into the country, sneak under the Immigration Officer's desk??
You sound like a Republican, so, you'll love the corrupt NYPD and power-drunk security guards that are everywhere. Bon Voyage!
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May 9th, 2008 at 2:58 pm 61
woodenhorse, I'm not trying to convince anyone to run out and buy a condo. I'm neither a Bear or Bull. I'm more of a Blue-Footed Boobie.
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May 9th, 2008 at 3:08 pm 62
Danza said: Why are you asking these questions after you’ve already bought into the market and have stated that you’re quite comfortable with your purchase?
Why do you care? Last I looked, this is a blog about Real Estate. I own Real Estate. Can you connect the dots from there??
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May 9th, 2008 at 3:24 pm 63
I found it funny today that my co-worker was trying to convince me to buy a condo in North Vancouver. He spoke with his uncle who was an RE agent. Same old crap, rich immigrants, lack of land, Olympics etc… He said if I'm lucky I can get in because places go fast.
I asked why would I buy at the peak of the market??? Plus the payments would mean eating KD and tuna sandwiches for the next 20 years. I showed him the graph of high Inventory in that area. I then advised him not to waste his time but I would like to continue the conversation after three months to see where the market is going.
Anybody who has taken an economics class can tell as supply rises and demand decreases it will only lead to lower prices.
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May 9th, 2008 at 3:35 pm 64
W-horse
"It–in my opinion anyhow–takes a lot of guts and self confedence to not buy into this market as soon as you are able to when you see people lining up to buy DT condos yesterday!!"
Some people see that huge line up outside Stepho's on Davie and think that they must have the best food in town.
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May 9th, 2008 at 3:46 pm 65
that cknw article about organized crime being the big industry is kind of frightening.
Can it be added to the links on the Friday free for all?
that puts organized crime right up there with warehouse workers for $$$$.
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May 9th, 2008 at 3:48 pm 66
"Some people see that huge line up outside Stepho’s on Davie and think that they must have the best food in town."
Those guys are suckers. Everyone knows Anton's is way better.
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May 9th, 2008 at 3:54 pm 67
Those guys are suckers. Everyone knows Anton’s is way better.
LOL
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May 9th, 2008 at 4:15 pm 68
Just did a quick search on crime rates. Here's what I found (for 2004): http://www.toronto.ca/quality_of_life/safety.htm
Looks like we top New York in break-ins per capita (1325 to 322), but after that New York's got us beat in terms of murders and robberies (7.0 to 2.6 and 301 to 148, respectively).
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May 9th, 2008 at 6:19 pm 69
"2008-05-09 13:55:12
Kelowna listings are up.
SFH’s up 29.07% YOY
Condo’s up 83.1% YOY
Townhouses up 49.53% YOY
Kelowna sales are down.
SFH’s down 19.56% YOY
Condo’s down 20.72% YOY
Townhouses down 25.2% YOY
Kelowna’s unsold inventory is up dramatically.
SFH’s inventory up 44.81% YOY
Condo inventory up 108.38% YOY
Townhouse inventory up 68.64% YOY
Hey, I thought everyone wanted to live there? Perhaps they’re selling out and moving to Vancouver before the Olympics?"
Looks like Kelowna is about to take a beating. No surprise. The prices are out of this world. They are on [ar with Van East.
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May 9th, 2008 at 8:43 pm 70
.
Actual ‘investors’ like Ozzie Jurock are staying away from properties in the city at these prices.
Yesterday's Sun had a full page puff-piece by Jurock titled "Why I will always buy real estate". It was the real estate equivalent of Dance of the Seven Veils. Total and complete pablum.
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:18 pm 71
It’s not an investment, it’s a capital loss and it will be for decades to come.
Economic language police here.
An "investment" is a capital asset that generates income. A "capital loss" is what you get when you sell an investment for less than you paid for it. You can make a profit on an investment, even if you sell it at a loss, if the income generated was adequate. Like a rental car, for example.
An investment is not "something which makes me a profit". Whether an investment makes you a profit depends on whether you paid the right price for it relative to the income which it generates, or whether you can find someone (the greater fool) to pay you a higher price if you didn't.
Have a good day.
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:22 pm 72
The Macleans article mentioned earlier via a News1130 link has lots of interesting stuff about the size of the criminal economy here in BC. Regarding real estate it states:
"Even the booming real estate market — B.C.'s favourite fixation — has been caught up in criminal schemes. In the E-Paragon bust police seized nine multi-million-dollar homes allegedly bought with the proceeds of crime. Ye himself lived on a lovely riverfront street lined with cherry blossoms and fastidiously trimmed lawns. According to police, even young and unsophisticated street gangs have been caught sinking cold hard cash into properties as a way to launder money and generate seemingly easy returns. "You really have to look at the price of real estate in the Lower Mainland and ask 'Who is buying?' " says Supt. John Robin with the B.C. integrated gang task force"
Elsewhere it quotes a car dealer who claimed that 1/4 of all his sales were in cash and the cars sold to drug dealers.
http://www.macleans.ca/canada/national/article.js…
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May 9th, 2008 at 9:32 pm 73
.
Those are amazing numbers for Kelowna.
Listings way up and sales way down. However, I'll bet the prices are increasing quite nicely. That's usually the focus for press releases/media reports.
Got some relatives living there and the housing costs are just dizzying. Well, maybe it's Napa Valley North.
Kelowna won't have a 2 week winter party like Vancouver, but they have something better … Ice Wine. And they'll have that for a long time after our Olympic circus has left town:)
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May 10th, 2008 at 2:16 am 74
"So, you have never been searched or interrogated in NYC? Then how did you get into the country, sneak under the Immigration Officer’s desk??
You sound like a Republican, so, you’ll love the corrupt NYPD and power-drunk security guards that are everywhere. Bon Voyage!"
I have to chirp in here. I presume you're Canadian, so you've never joined the 'other' line-up at immigration. Canadian immigration is without the worst experience I've ever has entering into a country.
Having lived in NYC, Vancouver, Manchester, and Wellington NZ – I can speak from experience that BC has the most obtrusive 'nanny state' society – even compared to NYC. I've never seen so many 'Don't do this..' signs in a city. BC is a place that sems to thrive off red-tape, it loves rules.
Don't get me wrong, Vancouver is a great city – it comparing it to the likes of NYC or London is a joke. It's a different league.
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May 10th, 2008 at 7:46 am 75
Prices are set by the buyers not by the sellers now and will be like that for looooong time, even if it's not obvious right now. I met my former RE agent yesterday and he told me the same shit: prices went up 4% this year, he's very busy bla bla bla. Told him to call me in 2-3 years when his commission will be half, since on my street (where i rent) there are 4 For Sale signs in one block distance (Renfrew Heights).
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May 10th, 2008 at 8:45 am 76
Paulb-thanks for posting the Kelowna stats!
Anyone else notice that the price of recreational properties in Kelowna dropped 58% from last year? Recreational properties are usually the first to go. Kelowna doesn't have too much of an economy-those high prices aren't supported by high paying jobs by any means-most jobs are service-based (tourism, retail). Which takes out a whole bunch of FTBs since people in that age group are too poor to even consider buying. I'm not sure how long we can count on people from Alberta holding up the economy.
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May 10th, 2008 at 8:48 am 77
Oops-sorry I meant thanks Alpha Bear for the Kelowna stats!
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May 10th, 2008 at 8:57 am 78
It was the real estate equivalent of Dance of the Seven Veils.
LOL!
Ozzie the pole dancer!
good one!
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May 10th, 2008 at 8:59 am 79
"I can speak from experience that BC has the most obtrusive ‘nanny state’ society"
You Brits sure do love that 'nanny state' reference, highly promoted by British society. It's the favorite way to make simple and often spurious criticism of a government, I find it much abused in the UK. When I lived in London I remember this being used to criticize the public smoking ban. I also like the term used by many journalists, 'health facsists', for people in favour of the smoking ban. If smoking bans are for nanny states … bring on the nanny states, mate.
border guards in Can., I agree, after showing my Can. passport they grill me, last time I just got mad. It's funny to see how they operate based on some script based.
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May 10th, 2008 at 9:54 am 80
pricedoutfornow: where did you hear that recreational prices are down 58% in Kelowna? I'd love to read that article, or see that data. Could you provide a link, or let us know where you found/hears that?
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May 10th, 2008 at 10:42 am 81
Looking at GVRD data, it would seem to me that the local market can at best absorb 19,000 new units per year based on population growth. That is based on an average household of 2.6 people, current population in GVRD of 2.1 million and a 2.5% pop growth which is about the 10 year annual grwoth rate (the 5 year is only about 1.3%).
Given that listings are hitting 17,000, couldn't we already be past the true 6 month inventory level and are really closer to 1 year's worth. Add to that the number of starts and we have the makings of major pullback.
I know the industry approach is to use annual sales as the metric to calculate inventory, but over the long term isn't population growth more appropriate? Afterall, alot of sales are just speculators and people moving up or down in the market.
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May 10th, 2008 at 10:48 am 82
Prices are set by the buyers not by the sellers now
Prices are always set buy the buyers, not the sellers.
Past, present, and future.
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May 10th, 2008 at 10:59 am 83
"When I lived in London I remember this being used to criticize the public smoking ban. I also like the term used by many journalists, ‘health facsists’, for people in favour of the smoking ban. If smoking bans are for nanny states" It's a good law but totally hypocritical, was talking to some people who were gloating about how healthy the sidewalk patio was now, I mentioned that they are breathing a toxic mixture of odorless CO and fine carbon particles far more hazardous to their health then second hand smoke and said I was trying to have the street closed to vehicle traffic so I didn't have to breath the noxious fumes. I had noticed them drive up and park RIGHT IN FRONT of the restaurant. They got all pissy on me!
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May 10th, 2008 at 11:05 am 84
Limey, you are full of shit. Canada Immigration does not require visitors to be fingerprinted or iris-scanned, as the US does. Even a British newspaper called US Immigration the worst in the world a year ago:
http://travel.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_styl…
US customs and immigration officials are notoriously cranky, rude and obnoxious, especially since 9-11 when they were handed powers they never had before. They are also rude to Americans, as I've experienced many times myself. Of all the times I traveled to Vancouver from NYC, I only had one unpleasant experience with a customs agent. Every person I've met in the government here, from Immigration to Dept. of Motor Vehicles, has been shockingly nice and friendly. Have you ever gone to the DMV or a government office in NYC? It's NOT the same in any way, shape or form. Jury Duty in NYC is like serving a short prison sentence.
If you do a Google search for "US Immigration rude" you will find TONS of articles about it, many from the UK. Here are a few more:
http://travel.ciao.co.uk/New_York_Newark_USA_EWR_… http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1121-02.h… http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/society/melissawhitw… http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/printDS/147261
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May 10th, 2008 at 11:31 am 85
The Economist gives Vancouver top score in culture…??? What exactly does this mean? There must be 100 cities in Europe that have more culture than Vancouver does.
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May 10th, 2008 at 11:34 am 86
Strataman,
Yeah, its a bit ironic to complain about second hand smoke in the middle of a smoggy city. Even as a non-smoker, I cringe at the puritanical attitudes here. In Sincouver, none the less. We seem to go to from one extreme to another, just like our economy.
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May 10th, 2008 at 2:05 pm 87
Are pre-sale closings counted as sales at the time of completion of the contract or when the pre-sale originates? Just wondering how many of the current sales being counted are of pre-sales from two or three years ago…
Regarding the folks lining up for current pre-sales, man talk about not doing your research, many of them will be kicking themselves in a year or two.
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May 10th, 2008 at 2:53 pm 88
M-Recreational properties in Kelowna-check out Alpha Bear's link (see above in comments) to Central Okanagan RE data. Page 9 and 10 show the average and median price is down quite substantially.
Now, this could be jumping to conclusions-who's to say each "recreational property" is in the same price range anyway. Could be we're comparing apples to oranges, say a three acre lot sold last year for $350k and this year a one acre lot is selling for only $150k. Not a big deal. Noted also that their listings of recreational properties is not up, as the rest of the properties. Overall, could mean nothing, but only time will tell.
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May 10th, 2008 at 3:07 pm 89
"Prices are always set buy the buyers, not the sellers."
Defo. How many times are you going to have to say this?
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May 10th, 2008 at 3:16 pm 90
Hard to believe that some folks still dont understand that losers are paid to stand in line for cond presales.
This has been admitted several times by lineruppers and promoters.
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May 10th, 2008 at 3:45 pm 91
Trying to find out one item. As far as developer recourse to a presale buyer walking away in the inconceivable event of a market decline, (Yeah, yeah, I know, just talking hypothetically here):
What happens to an assignment buyer? Do they sign strong legal agreements with the developer as well? Because if not the developer could come after the original buyer should the assignment buyer run into trouble upon completion.
Anyone in the biz know?
This could get messy if it wasn't different here/this time. Good thing RE only goes up so we won't have to deal with this, except as blog speculation!
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May 10th, 2008 at 3:46 pm 92
15:45:27
That's me.
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May 10th, 2008 at 5:13 pm 93
"Of all the times I traveled to Vancouver from NYC, I only had one unpleasant experience with a customs agent. Every person I’ve met in the government here, from Immigration to Dept. of Motor Vehicles, has been shockingly nice and friendly."
That's just one person's perspective. Personally, and I travel frequently, Canadian customs are the most irritating and obnoxious. I'm asked more useless questions at the Vancouver airport in one encounter than I've faced in a dozen trips to other countries. And what's with the protective vests at the airport anyway? We've all just arrived on a plane where nail clippers are banned.
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May 10th, 2008 at 5:19 pm 94
NYC
I'm a Nexus card holder and a Canadian citizen. Nexus gives me a pass going to the US and coming back into Canada. Both countries, however, scan my irises and each have a copy of my fingerprints. Frankly, I don't know why anyone would object to having fingerprints and iris impressions on file to gain entry in to a country, unless they have something to hide – in which case, they probably should be denied entry. I will give you, however, that US Customs and Immigration officers can be decidely anal and most are over-zealous.
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May 10th, 2008 at 5:47 pm 95
Even as a non-smoker, I cringe at the puritanical attitudes here.
Just what is "puritanical" about the government protecting a common resource, i.e. the air we breathe, from being made unhealthy?
Do you think it's "puritanical" that people aren't allowed to piss in the Capilano Reservoir?
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May 10th, 2008 at 6:10 pm 96
puritanical = hypocrite Why don't they concentrate on something that would really make a difference. I walk everywhere and am really tired of breathing fumes from lazy drivers that commute to work. Plus I see the absolutely dirty filthy air handlers at the top of Vancouver condo's 30 floors+ that distribute absolutely contaminated filthy air to every resident in the building. Cars man! ban them from down town!
The "Government" is doing NOTHING about real air quality.
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May 10th, 2008 at 6:17 pm 97
I am kidding I'm a realist, clean air will never happen, money is what counts, just get tired of idiots that think some stupid bylaw makes a difference to the air quality. I am glad they have banned smoking from patios but that doesn't come close or even affect a little bit the quality of the air. To use your example they have stopped people peeing in the reservoir but they are allowed to shit in it!
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May 10th, 2008 at 6:24 pm 98
Back to real estate; We broke 16,000 listings today, Paulb's site. Interesting; permanent weekend shift at the board pretty soon? That would be counted as a new job I think? Vancouver's economy is booming!
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May 10th, 2008 at 7:04 pm 99
The argument that the government shouldn't protect us from any threats to our well-being because it isn't protecting us from all of them is ridiculous.
If there is more to be done in protecting air quality, then the solution is to do more, not to do less.
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May 10th, 2008 at 7:10 pm 100
"The argument that the government shouldn’t protect us from any threats to our well-being because it isn’t protecting us from all of them is ridiculous." The only thing ridiculous is believing what they are doing is in any way related to air quality improvements. It's just politics at it's most basic level; just crap for the naive and stupid, which is where the votes are!
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May 10th, 2008 at 7:38 pm 101
It’s just politics at it’s most basic level; just crap for the naive and stupid,
I've got news for you: it's the 20% of the population who think that blowing cigarette smoke at other people is a basic human right who are naive and stupid, not the other 80%.
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May 10th, 2008 at 7:53 pm 102
So? I agree with you? What's your beef? Speaking of beef I have a real problem with that, I hate having to get into an elevator with people that eat carrion (dead flesh) they stink so much and the elevator is so small you cannot get far enough away. Any suggestions?
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May 10th, 2008 at 8:21 pm 103
Okay, enough about 2nd hand smoke, we have another important issue here:
Interesting; permanent weekend shift at the board pretty soon? That would be counted as a new job I think? Vancouver’s economy is booming!
Does the overtime at the RE board signal a top in the Vancouver RE led economic boom?
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May 10th, 2008 at 8:39 pm 104
beatstreet; "Okay, enough about 2nd hand smoke, we have another important issue here:" Agreed!! Just ate a meat lovers pizza from Bella!
Patriotz? 
.
Maybe some realitor can inform us if this has happened before? I am beginning to think the next 4-8 weeks will tell the tale, if this recovers with >60% sales then we are different if this goes down the cliff then we are the same.
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May 10th, 2008 at 9:58 pm 105
Hey nyc,
I'm not Canadian. I've lived in the US and now live in Canada. I've had annoying encounters with border/customs officials in both countries, although not frequently. I never had any problems once inside the country. I haven't been watched, searched and interrogated in either country while walking down the street. At an airport? Yes, a couple of times as I said before. But that's nothing compared to my friends from the Middle East who are routinely picked up for "random" searches at any airport they go.
I also never had any crime problems in the States (lived in Boston for 3 years, 1 year in New York). In Vancouver I had my bike stolen one time.
I think you're exaggerating. I've seen much higher levels of crime and police intrusiveness in my home country. Even then, I never had any issues there except my car got stolen one time.
Every place has its drawbacks. NYC is far from living in Bogota.
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May 11th, 2008 at 1:07 am 106
Dev:
I hear Bogota is fun, but then again my ex is COlombian.
NYC:
I admire your enthusiasm for Vancouver. Trust me though, it'll wear off a little as you get used to Van. That's inevitable; my ex misses home now, though he was very ready to leave nyc/usa when he moved. It's a nice city and Canada's a nice country but it isn't the socialist paradise you see on the surface…
Strata:
EUUUUUU now all I can think about is people pooing in my drinking water. I agree with you; the anti-smoking thing is somewhat silly given that people can do far worse. I'm not big on smoking in indoor places, but let's not pretend any of us are any better.
Krrish:
STFU
Pope:
That's as nice as I can possily be to krrish.
THey rest of you, shit up and hand me some popcorn… the show's just beginning!
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May 11th, 2008 at 4:33 am 107
Today's Province has another depressing rundown of the lives of young professionals trying to pursue the middle class dream in Vancouver.
To them, I dedicate this video by the Talking Heads:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=EYbUCvz1LYE
I need to leave this city:
Vancouver Province
http://tinyurl.com/5wzj4q
I couldn't believe Peter Simpson's comments. I wonder if he regrets them in the context of this article.
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May 11th, 2008 at 5:25 am 108
As a second-generation Filipino-Canadian, Mary Ann Masesar was taught the key to middle-class wealth was owning a home.
Says it all right there. The homeownership ideology.
The key to middle-class wealth is to buy a house, like any other investment, at the right price.
And this city is going to learn this the hard way.
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May 11th, 2008 at 6:41 am 109
.
Today’s Province has another depressing rundown of the lives of young professionals trying to pursue the middle class dream in Vancouver
"Priced out". What a revolting headline to see sitting on your doorstep first thing in the morning. It's a good thing we have this fabulous climate to make up for the insane house prices:)
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May 11th, 2008 at 7:25 am 110
Still hoping to get an informed opinion on this question.
When a presale assignment is made, does the developer specifically absolve the original buyer from any future liability should the
greater foolproud new owner run into trouble and be unable to complete?
Strikes me that no matter the strength of any agreement between flipper and fool if the developer isn't party to it then flipper is remains liable. Flipper can sue fool all they want, but won't get them off the hook to take possession and pay.
Of course, this is just an intellectual endeavor, for prices never go down in the best place on earth. Well, never again, now that we have the Olympics.
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May 11th, 2008 at 7:30 am 111
A TD Canada Trust poll released last Wednesday showed almost half of Vancouverites (48 per cent) would consider raising a family in a condo, up from 34 per cent in 2007.
your average kid wouldn't care if it is a condo, townhouse or doghouse. the importance would lie in the "caring" from the parents not the social standing of being a homedebtor…. we are losing track of what is important.
BTW not to impressed with the article but that is par for the course for the Province.
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May 11th, 2008 at 8:09 am 112
.
Still hoping to get an informed opinion on this question.
There's a thread on RET titled "Flipping Pre-Sales For Zero Fun and Zero Profit". Gets interesting around page 5.
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May 11th, 2008 at 8:10 am 113
Re the Province
This is exactly the kind of cautionary article I've been expecting to show up about the social implications of high real estate prices.
Keep your eyes peeled for stories of peoples financial mistakes and fraud next.
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May 11th, 2008 at 10:23 am 114
re: the province
anyone else notice that they're not opening up the real estate articles for comments anymore? They're probably afraid some real info might show up.
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May 11th, 2008 at 10:48 am 115
There is a reason for everything.
And you are probably right, they are afraid of the truth. Or rather that people will figure out the truth. That will teach people about the integrity of this country. Which will make people angry. Which will make them demand changes in how things are run. Which will shake things up. Which may cause some heads to roll. The truth is dangerous for some, but good for the masses. The papers are not serving the masses.
Who are they serving?
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May 11th, 2008 at 11:33 am 116
They want your comments about how the housing market has affected you here:
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html…
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May 11th, 2008 at 11:49 am 117
RE Province article (crossposted at RETalks)
I have just skimmed this multi article piece so far, and there is so much to comment on, I will start with two:
1. This article laments the social and demographic impact of high prices. This is a chance to spin the bears are "negative" the other way. Obviously the intangibles of high prices are huge. It could easily be argued that bears are positive and bulls are negative. Of course, I think the entire notion of putting market sentiment into "positive" and "negative" is pointless, but food for thought nonetheless.
2.
Tsur Sommerville. I had given him the benefit of the doubt to date, but now he has officially crossed the line into industry shill/ignorant asshat territory:
Somerville says he's reluctant to use the B-word because the numbers are not adding up to such a scenario.
"If you say bubble, then at some point it's going to pop. And if you look at our price increases, they've been double-digit, but for the most part they've been between 11 to 15 per cent for the past few years. That's high, but in a bubble you start to see 20-per-cent growth, 30-per-cent growth. Just really rapid acceleration, and we haven't seen that. That's what happened in 1981 and 1982 . . . That's what a bubble looks like."
So it is not a bubble because we had 15 percent for 6 years instead of 30% for three? That has to be the dumbest argument EVER. What a clown.
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May 11th, 2008 at 1:47 pm 118
Today's Province front page and the Sun "15 myths" front page are the local equivalents of the Time magazine cover from 2005.
The Time cover marked the beginning of the North American bust – San Diego started falling soon thereafter – and the Vancouver covers mark the start of the finale in Vancouver.
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May 11th, 2008 at 6:01 pm 119
Priced Out?
Too bad someone doesn't appeal to all those who are "Priced Out" to STOP CONSUMING anything whatsoever they don't absolutely need in order to survive which hopefully will bring this economy here into a recession and force people to leave.
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May 11th, 2008 at 6:48 pm 120
Nitpick: stop buying, not stop consuming.
Like other capital assets, buying housing and consuming it (i.e. living in it) are two different things.
Also no recession is needed to bring house prices down. Exhibit A is Calgary and Edmonton where house prices have been falling for a year during a booming economy. Also the first year of the US bust.
But when RE is the economy, like in the US and BC, an RE bust brings on a recession by itself.
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May 11th, 2008 at 8:14 pm 121
But when RE is the economy, like in the US and BC, an RE bust brings on a recession by itself.
So right, and more so! What we do have for an economy outside of RE is getting hammered by the US troubles, which are due to start round 2 any day now. We have seen their housing market collapse, the financial system creak, groan and start to tilt. The Fed plastered the worst of the cracks over with even more borrowed and imaginary dollars to buy some time. The structural deficiencies remain.
The US real economy is now in trouble and no quick fix in sight for that. When that becomes undeniable round 2 starts. Ours, of course, is the sideshow which follows a bit behind.
Anyone else care to weigh in on that presale assignment question?
(Is the developer a party to an assignment, thus freeing the original buyer from liability?) Someone must know!
Thanks, Raincouver. Just speculation there, good reading though.
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May 11th, 2008 at 8:51 pm 122
Freako:
"Tsur Sommerville. I had given him the benefit of the doubt to date, but now he has officially crossed the line into industry shill/ignorant asshat territory:"
Tsur, Bill Good, Pastrick, Muir,Baxter, make big bucks peddling BS.
Chipman and his chimp Quasi Moto Aaron deserve more respect, as they don't hide what they pump.
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May 11th, 2008 at 9:09 pm 123
me too, The answer to "Who are they serving?" is as always "Follow the money." It answers most questions in business and politics and, regrettably, some questions in organized religion.
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May 11th, 2008 at 11:26 pm 124
Tsur Sommerville's comment don't make sense. It does have to have 20 to 30% annual increase to create a bubble.
If a tire could only take 50 psi before it pops, it doesn't matter if you increase the pressure slowly or really fast. Once it reaches 50 psi, it's gonna pop.
Same could be said about the real estate market. If the real estate market bubble pops when average homes exceeds average income by more than 4 times, then the bubble will pop regardless as to whether it took 5 years to get there or 2 years.
Anyways, it doesn't matter what Tsur says. The market has turned. Within 6 months, everyone will freak out. We will see double digits decreases from it's peak in 2008.
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May 11th, 2008 at 11:31 pm 125
If you do something really stupid like buy 9 homes before a housing bust, lose them all in foreclosure and get forced into bankruptcy at least you can look forward to the media coverage:
"I knew I was sitting on time bombs," Forgaard said. "I knew the market was going to go soft and I knew that property values would decline. But I figured that I had enough equity to survive the storm and sell or take the loss and refinance.
"I didn't anticipate a downturn of epic proportions such that home values are 40 percent less than they were," he said.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24569891/
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May 11th, 2008 at 11:46 pm 126
And in due course we will see that it was our very own Shawn Forgaards, along with the gotta-buy-my-own-condo 20 somethings, who were responsible for the absurd price runup and subsequent bust, not mysterious foreign millionaires and drug lords.
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May 12th, 2008 at 12:10 am 127
I will note also that mortgages made at the time of purchase are non-recourse in California. It appears that Shawn's MO, like many other specuvestors, was to take equity gains out of his first purchases by refinancing and use them for subsequent purchases. Any financing subsequent to the time of purchase is recourse in Ca, thus the impending bankruptcy.
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May 12th, 2008 at 12:45 am 128
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The answer to “Who are they serving?” is as always “Follow the money.” It answers most questions in business and politics and, regrettably, some questions in organized religion.
Yeah. 'Regrettably'. That's funny:)
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May 12th, 2008 at 4:44 am 129
"Recession expected to deepen in Canada"
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/…
…wait a second…3 months ago, according to the media, Canada was going to avoid a recession completely. i love atching the media "gear down" the news with time as if we won't notice.
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May 12th, 2008 at 5:03 am 130
Any financing subsequent to the time of purchase is recourse in Ca, thus the impending bankruptcy.
Also some of his properties were in Arizona and Nevada. Don't know if they are non-recourse or not.
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May 12th, 2008 at 5:53 am 131
Arizona is non-recourse, Nevada is recourse. The biggest bubble state that is recourse is Florida, or perhaps NY (NYC area).
List of non-recourse mortgage walkaway states
If you want to see a fascinating tableau of the foreclosure fiasco, just google "non-recourse states".
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May 12th, 2008 at 6:48 am 132
Mish is commenting on the OZ house prices falling. I've heard reports from Australians, some commenting on this blog, that RE prices in OZ are not falling. I'd like to hear a more recent perspective on Mish's claims if anyone knows?
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May 12th, 2008 at 6:53 am 133
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…wait a second…3 months ago, according to the media, Canada was going to avoid a recession completely
Yeah, that theory is working out nicely. Never mind all of Canada, there's tons of people that believe Vancouver is a special planet – totally exempt from the vicissitudes of life on Earth.
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May 13th, 2008 at 9:21 am 134
I agree with JR's comments on immigration. I am a Nexus cardholder, and the US is by far the worst to deal with. I could bore you with anecdotal stories, but suffice to say as a group they are anal powertrippers. Canadian officers aren't perfect, but I've had much more positive experiences with them.
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