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Friday Free For All

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It’s Friday! Thats the next best thing to the weekend and it also means it’s time for our weekly news round up:

-Condo supply growing faster than population
–~600 new REBGV listings in first week of May?
-Coco’s Things you may want to know
-Welcome to the wild west
-Whats our number one industry?
-It’s good news on the job front
–Canadian housing market cools in April
-Vancouver residents love condo investing
-Beware of home reno ripoffs
–Forestry demand to soar
-Foresters warned to expect more blood
-Canadians fleeing to cash?
–BC exports contract for 3rd year
-The booming bust-vulture industry
–Americans feel gloomy

How ’bout you? How are you feeling as we head into a beautiful spring weekend? What are you seeing out there in the streets? Post your news, links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a great weekend!

note: any conversation on real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. when posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Thanks!

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Warren

I agree with JR's comments on immigration. I am a Nexus cardholder, and the US is by far the worst to deal with. I could bore you with anecdotal stories, but suffice to say as a group they are anal powertrippers. Canadian officers aren't perfect, but I've had much more positive experiences with them.

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Raincouver

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…wait a second…3 months ago, according to the media, Canada was going to avoid a recession completely

Yeah, that theory is working out nicely. Never mind all of Canada, there's tons of people that believe Vancouver is a special planet – totally exempt from the vicissitudes of life on Earth.

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jesse

Mish is commenting on the OZ house prices falling. I've heard reports from Australians, some commenting on this blog, that RE prices in OZ are not falling. I'd like to hear a more recent perspective on Mish's claims if anyone knows?

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patriotz

Arizona is non-recourse, Nevada is recourse. The biggest bubble state that is recourse is Florida, or perhaps NY (NYC area).

List of non-recourse mortgage walkaway states

If you want to see a fascinating tableau of the foreclosure fiasco, just google "non-recourse states".

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freako

Any financing subsequent to the time of purchase is recourse in Ca, thus the impending bankruptcy.

Also some of his properties were in Arizona and Nevada. Don't know if they are non-recourse or not.

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Re-diculous

"Recession expected to deepen in Canada"

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/…

…wait a second…3 months ago, according to the media, Canada was going to avoid a recession completely. i love atching the media "gear down" the news with time as if we won't notice.

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Raincouver

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The answer to “Who are they serving?” is as always “Follow the money.” It answers most questions in business and politics and, regrettably, some questions in organized religion.

Yeah. 'Regrettably'. That's funny:)

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patriotz

I will note also that mortgages made at the time of purchase are non-recourse in California. It appears that Shawn's MO, like many other specuvestors, was to take equity gains out of his first purchases by refinancing and use them for subsequent purchases. Any financing subsequent to the time of purchase is recourse in Ca, thus the impending bankruptcy.

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patriotz

And in due course we will see that it was our very own Shawn Forgaards, along with the gotta-buy-my-own-condo 20 somethings, who were responsible for the absurd price runup and subsequent bust, not mysterious foreign millionaires and drug lords.

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Anonymous

If you do something really stupid like buy 9 homes before a housing bust, lose them all in foreclosure and get forced into bankruptcy at least you can look forward to the media coverage:

"I knew I was sitting on time bombs," Forgaard said. "I knew the market was going to go soft and I knew that property values would decline. But I figured that I had enough equity to survive the storm and sell or take the loss and refinance.

"I didn't anticipate a downturn of epic proportions such that home values are 40 percent less than they were," he said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24569891/

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Anonymous

Tsur Sommerville's comment don't make sense. It does have to have 20 to 30% annual increase to create a bubble.

If a tire could only take 50 psi before it pops, it doesn't matter if you increase the pressure slowly or really fast. Once it reaches 50 psi, it's gonna pop.

Same could be said about the real estate market. If the real estate market bubble pops when average homes exceeds average income by more than 4 times, then the bubble will pop regardless as to whether it took 5 years to get there or 2 years.

Anyways, it doesn't matter what Tsur says. The market has turned. Within 6 months, everyone will freak out. We will see double digits decreases from it's peak in 2008.

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me three

me too, The answer to "Who are they serving?" is as always "Follow the money." It answers most questions in business and politics and, regrettably, some questions in organized religion.

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-A-

Freako:

"Tsur Sommerville. I had given him the benefit of the doubt to date, but now he has officially crossed the line into industry shill/ignorant asshat territory:"

Tsur, Bill Good, Pastrick, Muir,Baxter, make big bucks peddling BS.

Chipman and his chimp Quasi Moto Aaron deserve more respect, as they don't hide what they pump.

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alexcanuck

But when RE is the economy, like in the US and BC, an RE bust brings on a recession by itself. So right, and more so! What we do have for an economy outside of RE is getting hammered by the US troubles, which are due to start round 2 any day now. We have seen their housing market collapse, the financial system creak, groan and start to tilt. The Fed plastered the worst of the cracks over with even more borrowed and imaginary dollars to buy some time. The structural deficiencies remain. The US real economy is now in trouble and no quick fix in sight for that. When that becomes undeniable round 2 starts. Ours, of course, is the sideshow which follows a bit behind. Anyone else care to weigh in on that presale assignment question? (Is the… Read more »

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patriotz

Nitpick: stop buying, not stop consuming.

Like other capital assets, buying housing and consuming it (i.e. living in it) are two different things.

Also no recession is needed to bring house prices down. Exhibit A is Calgary and Edmonton where house prices have been falling for a year during a booming economy. Also the first year of the US bust.

But when RE is the economy, like in the US and BC, an RE bust brings on a recession by itself.

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Michael Randallbard

Priced Out?

Too bad someone doesn't appeal to all those who are "Priced Out" to STOP CONSUMING anything whatsoever they don't absolutely need in order to survive which hopefully will bring this economy here into a recession and force people to leave.

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patriotz

Today's Province front page and the Sun "15 myths" front page are the local equivalents of the Time magazine cover from 2005.

The Time cover marked the beginning of the North American bust – San Diego started falling soon thereafter – and the Vancouver covers mark the start of the finale in Vancouver.

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freako

RE Province article (crossposted at RETalks) I have just skimmed this multi article piece so far, and there is so much to comment on, I will start with two: 1. This article laments the social and demographic impact of high prices. This is a chance to spin the bears are "negative" the other way. Obviously the intangibles of high prices are huge. It could easily be argued that bears are positive and bulls are negative. Of course, I think the entire notion of putting market sentiment into "positive" and "negative" is pointless, but food for thought nonetheless. 2. Tsur Sommerville. I had given him the benefit of the doubt to date, but now he has officially crossed the line into industry shill/ignorant asshat territory: Somerville says he's reluctant to use the B-word because the numbers are not adding up to… Read more »

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Penrick

They want your comments about how the housing market has affected you here:
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html…

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me too

There is a reason for everything.

And you are probably right, they are afraid of the truth. Or rather that people will figure out the truth. That will teach people about the integrity of this country. Which will make people angry. Which will make them demand changes in how things are run. Which will shake things up. Which may cause some heads to roll. The truth is dangerous for some, but good for the masses. The papers are not serving the masses.

Who are they serving?

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me

re: the province

anyone else notice that they're not opening up the real estate articles for comments anymore? They're probably afraid some real info might show up.

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van-zee

Re the Province

This is exactly the kind of cautionary article I've been expecting to show up about the social implications of high real estate prices.

Keep your eyes peeled for stories of peoples financial mistakes and fraud next.

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Raincouver

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Still hoping to get an informed opinion on this question.

There's a thread on RET titled "Flipping Pre-Sales For Zero Fun and Zero Profit". Gets interesting around page 5.

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blueskies

A TD Canada Trust poll released last Wednesday showed almost half of Vancouverites (48 per cent) would consider raising a family in a condo, up from 34 per cent in 2007.

your average kid wouldn't care if it is a condo, townhouse or doghouse. the importance would lie in the "caring" from the parents not the social standing of being a homedebtor…. we are losing track of what is important.

BTW not to impressed with the article but that is par for the course for the Province.

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alexcanuck

Still hoping to get an informed opinion on this question.

When a presale assignment is made, does the developer specifically absolve the original buyer from any future liability should the greater fool

proud new owner run into trouble and be unable to complete?

Strikes me that no matter the strength of any agreement between flipper and fool if the developer isn't party to it then flipper is remains liable. Flipper can sue fool all they want, but won't get them off the hook to take possession and pay.

Of course, this is just an intellectual endeavor, for prices never go down in the best place on earth. Well, never again, now that we have the Olympics.

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