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Friday Free For All

It’s Friday! Thats the next best thing to the weekend and it also means it’s time for our weekly news round up:

-Condo supply growing faster than population
-~600 new REBGV listings in first week of May?
-Coco’s Things you may want to know
-Welcome to the wild west
-Whats our number one industry?
-It’s good news on the job front
-Canadian housing market cools in April
-Vancouver residents love condo investing
-Beware of home reno ripoffs
-Forestry demand to soar
-Foresters warned to expect more blood
-Canadians fleeing to cash?
-BC exports contract for 3rd year
-The booming bust-vulture industry
-Americans feel gloomy

How ’bout you? How are you feeling as we head into a beautiful spring weekend? What are you seeing out there in the streets? Post your news, links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a great weekend!

note: any conversation on real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. when posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Thanks!

RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

134 Responses to “Friday Free For All”

Pages: [1] 2 » Show all comments newest first

  1. 1
    Booya Says:
    Not sure if anyone’s mentioned this yet, but Vancouver has once again been named the best city in the world by the Economist:

    http://www.economist.com/markets/rankin … d=11116839

  2. 2
    coglione Says:
    “best city in the world … ” is an exagerration, as if this was some absolute, objective declaration.

    “Vancouver remains the most liveable city”, ‘liveable’ is the term, whatever that means.

    yeah, well, Calgary ranks 7th …

  3. 3
    beatstreet Says:
    Not sure if anyone’s mentioned this yet, but Vancouver has once again been named the best city in the world by the Economist

    Right after Melbourne…what’s happened to Aussie house prices post Olympics?

  4. 4
    patriotz Says:
    Each city is assigned a score for over 30 qualitative and quantitative factors across five broad categories: stability, health care, culture and environment, education, and infrastructure

    In other words, without regard to cost of living.

    I think the average family would find a house in Ottawa or Halifax more “livable” than a dinky condo in Vancouver.

  5. 5
    Swirlyman Says:
    From their “full report” link (you have to buck up US$200 for the details):

    Each city is assigned a score for over 30 qualitative and quantitative factors across five broad categories:
    o stability
    o health care
    o culture and environment
    o education
    o infrastructure

    Each factor in each city is rated as acceptable, tolerable, uncomfortable, undesirable or intolerable. For qualitative indicators, a rating is awarded based on the judgment of in–house analysts and in–city contributors. For quantitative indicators, a rating is calculated based on the relative performance of a number of external data points. The categories are compiled and weighted to provide an overall rating of 1–100, where 1 is considered intolerable and 100 is considered ideal. The report considers that any city with a rating of 80 or more will have few, if any, challenges to living standards.

    Yup, Vancouver’s pretty darn near perfect when it comes to stability, health care, culture & environment, education and infrastructure… ;-P

  6. 6
    The Pope Says:
    what’s happened to Aussie house prices post Olympics?

    Sydneys suburbs have seen price drops averaging between $100 to $450 per week since 2004. Of course Vancouver is different so you must remember to make the proper hemisphere adjustments.

  7. 7
    Via Says:
    Calgary is more livable than Zurich? *scratches head*
  8. 8
    beatstreet Says:
    Looking at the amount of projects under construction suggests we’ll be able to host a few visitors come 2010.
  9. 9
    richard Says:
    you know, i swear i don’t see where the supply is. i mean, i look at the mls and i check out 2 bedroom units, and they don’t seem to be any more different from last year. unless the new units are mostly 1 bedrooms or 3 or more?
    but then maybe i don’t know what i’m doing….
  10. 10
    Krrish2 Says:
    SELLERS NEED TO KEEP OPTIMISTIC SPIRIT

    There is no downturn in decades to come in vancouver- anybody selling their properties on low prices are alone the losers all the way because the real estate prices in vancouver will countinue to climb through decades on and on.

    Still anybody like to sell their property for other reasons keep your prices sharp ,there are lots of buyers in the market and demand countinue to keep up with market for decades to come -because of more selection buyers are looking for decent prices-Vancouver is not expensive compare to any brand name cities of this world but vancouver is more beautiful than them.

    “RAIN IS A PLUS POINT FOR VANCOUVER TO REDUCE MORE THAN 20% EMMISSION- LIKE BEAUTY TAKES SHOWER EVERY FEW DAYS AND BECOME FRESH ! FRESH!! FRUITY! FRUITY!!”.

    Ask nyc ask sfmike ask sonika and his bf ask bdk and tony and lots of bears they all have come to admit that Vancouver B.C.is “The best place on earth”

    Blogs can’t be better than this unless NYC and SFMIKE turn over the chart opposite from bearish lies of past three year in comparison to Vancouver with any other cities.

    American downturn is over and all bearish weapons of real estate anecdotal compare to anecdotal of vancouver real estate has been destroyed,we just need some one to read the statements from bears to admit their defeat, if you choose countinue to battle with BULLS you will be defeated again and again.

  11. 11
    Tony Danza Says:
    Not sure if anyone’s mentioned this yet, but Vancouver has once again been named the best city in the world by the Economist

    Yeeeehaaa! Get out there and join the line up at 1212 Howe, the Economist loves us!! They really love us!!! The whole world loves us!!!!

    Looks like talk of 17k inventory by the end of May is coming to fruition. Plenty of choice for all the billionaire hedgies looking for a pied a terre in the DTES.

  12. 12
    VanTOVan Says:
    One of the things that always irks me is in articles like that one about the RE market cooling, whenever they say something bad about real estate they follow it up with something to the effect of “but this is not the same as what’s going on in the States.”
    Perhaps they’re right, but the automatic way they spit that addendum out reminds me of “The Manchurian Candidate” when the platoon members would recite some crap about Raymond Shaw (the commie-controlled assassin) being the kindest, most giving person they’ve ever known.
  13. 13
    Anonymous Says:
    One thing people don’t mention when it comes to the Economist livability survey is that it is based of a management salary of ~250k USD a year. It is not some kind of general rating for the average wage earner in the city. If you make quarter of a million dollars a year in salary Vancouver is number one. Hurrah.
  14. 14
    hughz Says:
    “For qualitative indicators, a rating is awarded based on the judgment of in–house analysts and in–city contributors. For quantitative indicators, a rating is calculated based on the relative performance of a number of external data points.”

    I don’t doubt that Vancouver is probably on the top of the list, but that first bit is a little dodgey.

    Would anyone else care to see some standard errors on this index? I would think that there is no fundamental difference between any of the cities in the top 10 or 20.

  15. 15
    Via Says:
    “Vancouver is not expensive compare to any brand name cities of this world but vancouver is more beautiful than them.”

    Vancouver is not a brand name city or world class city, lol. It’s pretty and if I am Canadian and can afford to live here, sure, why not? At the same time Calgary is up there on the top 10 most livable cities and its probably a lot more affordable.

    If I can’t afford to live in a beautiful city it ain’t so beautiful anymore and Vancouver is really expensive compared to other places in Canada.

  16. 16
    Digi Says:
    Check out all the comments on the CIBC story urging people to get their cash into the stock market, I guess the whole ABCP & subprime debt shuffling has got a lot of people nervous:

    http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet … e#comments

  17. 17
    Anonymous Says:
    Regarding ‘vancouverites love condos’ - more than half of the people surveyed would buy a condo as an investment rather than to live in? Are there any condos left that will cash flow or is this all speculation on future gains? I thought rents and prices where out of sync, how is anyone making money buying a condo for an investment these days?
  18. 18
    moldcity Says:
    I’m seeing LOTS of for sale signs out there, I snapped a shot with my phone of 7 signs together near granville island:

    forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=54

    Can anyone beat that number of signs in a single shot?

  19. 19
    moldcity Says:
    anonymous: they can’t make these ‘investments’ pay based on rent, thats why its a bubble. Actual ‘investors’ like Ozzie Jurock are staying away from properties in the city at these prices. Jurock said last year that he wouldn’t touch downtown condos with a ten foot pole - they’re too overpriced for any return you’d get from rent.
  20. 20
    bdk Says:
    “how is anyone making money buying a condo for an investment these days?”

    It’s not an investment, it’s a capital loss and it will be for decades to come.

  21. 21
    nyc Says:
    I netted a very nice profit on my condo sale this Spring. May not be able to do that next year, but, it’s still possible even now.
  22. 22
    mflat Says:
    The carnage is just beginning. We took a 1-year lease on a downtown 2-bdrm, 950 sq ft condo. Our rent is very affordable, and we really enjoy it here. The owner has decided to sell-up, and has priced VERY sharply. A unit like this went for around $620 K in late 2006, and the owner is asking for less than a 10% profit on that price. Yup, the party is over. Either he’s under huge financial pressure (which I doubt, since he purchased this place on completion), or he recognizes that the gig is up and wants out FAST!

    Great thing is that our Property Mgmt company wants to protect our rights, and we are here for the 12 mths + 1 (to find a new place). Offers are failing as investors don’t want to touch the place (cash flow is not there without a huge deposit - you’d have to put over 50% down in order to have POSITIVE CASH FLOW!!!). One young couple wanted to buy but can’t afford to carry this place, and continue leasing another until our lease runs out.

    This is going to be very fun to watch, especially with NO SKIN in the game!

  23. 23
    scullboy Says:
    Hey Krrish,

    While I would agree that Vancouver is a pretty little city, by no means would I say it’s the best place on earth. If I were independantly wealthy and could buy anywhere, here is the list of where I would live:

    South of France
    Anywhere on the Mediterranean
    Thailand
    NYC
    Cabin high in the Rockies
    Summer home in the Maritimes

    Vancouver’s a lovely little town if you make good money. Even if you make average money and don’t mind renting you can have a good life. Even more so if you have no kids or dogs.

    On other words, it’s awesome if you’re middle class, gay and you’re some kind of knowledge worker.

    For everyone else, Calgary’s probably a better bet.

  24. 24
    scullboy Says:
    Oh yeah, Krrish you’re starting to sound like Tom Vu:

    HEY! YOU SELL HOUSE IN VANCOUVER, YOU A LOOOOOO-SAH!

  25. 25
    bdk Says:
    Mflat, you can be booted out with two months notice and one month free rent if the new owners intend to occupy the suite.

    But don’t worry too much, you can easily rent another.
    Despite what anyone tells you the market is not tight unless you’re a South American party student intending to have 5 people in a one bedroom, you’ve filed for bankruptcy recently or you have non apartment sized pets.

  26. 26
    me Says:
    it’s good to know that the survey is based on $250k salaries - because if I made $250k, I probably would live here forever.

    But I don’t - so I won’t :)

  27. 27
    woodenhorse Says:
    HEY! YOU SELL HOUSE IN VANCOUVER, YOU A LOOOOOO-SAH!

    That’s awesome.

  28. 28
    danko Says:
    I netted a very nice profit on my condo sale this Spring. May not be able to do that next year, but, it’s still possible even now.

    Thats true, but if this listings trend continues the window is rapidly closing on profit time. Even if you list now you’ll want to price sharply to stand out from all the other properties on the market unless you’re selling something very special.

  29. 29
    mflat Says:
    bdk, that is only true if the current landlord/owner wants to occupy the suite, and he has to do that for a fixed amount of time (which I can’t find right now). However, when a NEW owner buys a place, they have no recourse but to observe the full-length of the fixed-term tenancy.

    There’s lots about selling a tenanted property that is more myth than reality, and only after a day of research yesterday did I realize how safe we are.

  30. 30
    crabman Says:
    I netted a very nice profit on my condo sale this Spring. May not be able to do that next year, but, it’s still possible even now.

    Still possible to sell at a profit. I don’t think it’s possible to buy now and sell for a profit anytime in the near future. And NYC, I’m still waiting for those tips on how to make a LOT more than savings accounts.

  31. 31
    crabman Says:
    Wow, the number of units under construction is incredible! Can’t wait for that glut to hit the market, driving prices and rents down.
  32. 32
    bdk Says:
    “when a NEW owner buys a place, they have no recourse but to observe the full-length of the fixed-term tenancy.”

    Sorry but you are completely wrong, once the unit is sold the new owner is the landlord and can evict you using form “2 MONTH NOTICE TO END TENANCY FOR LANDLORD’S USE OF PROPERTY Form #RTB – 32″

    http://www.rto.gov.bc.ca/

    If you’ve been told otherwise then you were deceived, sorry.

  33. 33
    nyc Says:
    Yes, it’s true that next year I may not be able to sell my new condo for a profit, or even a loss, but, I don’t intend to sell this place for a few years as it’s my primary residence, not an investment.

    danko, are you a RE agent? You seem to know the lingo. My broker priced my condo “sharply”, but, still at a good profit, and it sold within 4 days after being listed, 2 days before it was publicly listed. But this was in April. It is a unique property with a water view, which did help. I traded in the view for more square footage on the new place, which I bought for $16K less than the asking price. So, I’m happy. That’s a good return on my investment in one year, even if the market softens a lot.

    crabman, talk to your banker/broker about ways to make your money go further than the interest you make from a standard savings account. They can advise you better than I.

  34. 34
    bdk Says:
    Oh and the new owner is supposed to occupy it for one year, although I know of people who moved out after 6 months and 1 day and had no problem.

    I also know of new owners who’ve evicted the tenants and then re rented the unit, but that can get you in hot water if they figure it out.

  35. 35
    bdk Says:
    “All of the conditions for sale of the rental unit have been satisfied and the purchaser has asked the landlord, in writing, to give this Notice because the purchaser or a close family member intends in good faith to occupy the rental unit”
  36. 36
    nyc Says:
    So, are all these condo developers who are building condos whistling past the graveyard, or do they know something we don’t? I can’t imagine that they would invest so heavily in new buildings if they didn’t have some confidence that they could sell them for a good profit. Are all of you saying that they will remain empty? If so, how could these developers have screwed up so much and not seen this coming?

    And who is buying these multi-million dollar condos at the Shangrila and Erickson buildings, for example? They are selling! Where are these buyers coming from if everything is so overpriced?

    I wonder if anyone ever bought that penthouse at 1000 Beach that was listed for $18 Million? Clearly, there are still lots buyers out there for all this high-priced real estate.

  37. 37
    condofever Says:
    It’s true. If someone buys a place, and wants to move-in or have their family member move-in (mommy/daddy buying an ‘investment’ unit for son/daughter) then they can kick you out with 2 months notice. If you leave before two months is up, then they have to pay you out to 2 months.

    That’s one of the Residential Tenancy Acts changes that the Liberals brought in earlier in this decade. Tenants had many more rights, previously.

    Of course, this is all true only if you are now month-to-month, if you have a 1yr tenancy which switches to month-to-month, then they have to see it out for the 1yr.

  38. 38
    mflat Says:
    bdk, I’m not wrong, and have confirmed this with the Prop Mgmt company. As condofever has added, since I’m on a fixed 1 yr term, they have to wait until it expires and switches to month-to-month before they can serve notice. Even then, they are still liable for one month’s compensation.

    Add one to the tally in favor of renting. :-)

  39. 39
    bdk Says:
    Regardless of whether there is a lease.
    Two months notice and one month free rent.
    Call the Residential Tenancy Branch or email them if you need clarification.
  40. 40
    mflat Says:
    bdk, I’ve done that, talked to the RTB as well. You are still in error.
  41. 41
    bdk Says:
    Not in Vancouver you haven;t, I’ve had to serve notice under these conditions.
  42. 42
    mflat Says:
    Then your tenant didn’t understand his rights. Trust me, the realtors lie about the tenants rights. The RTB documentation is not clear. You have to understand the specific section - Fixed term tenancies:

    “Where the tenancy is for a fixed length of time, the Notice to End Tenancy cannot take effect before the end date specified in the tenancy agreement. The tenant also cannot end tenancy earlier than the end date. However, the landlord and tenant can come to an agreement to end the tenancy earlier.”

    Listen, I understand that other sections may read differently, but once you understand this section it all becomes much clearer.

  43. 43
    moldcity Says:
    nyc, I’m not sure about the local developers, anybody know why developers overbuilt in other cities like San Diego or Miami? They’re seeing massive price drops and banks have blacklisted lending on many buildings, why didn’t the developers see that coming?

    I assume that at least partly its the same speculative mania that individual buyers take part in, the difference is that most developers have a bigger buffer than the buyers. The developer can drop their prices a lot further than an individual and still make a profit or at least break even. The first stage is of course an attempt at hidden price drops where the developer offers special financing, a free car, etc with the purchase of a unit.

    High end units like shangrila will always be a different market that the majority. I assume anybody looking at an 18 million penthouse isn’t going to have any interest in a 500 sq foot suite at spectrum.

  44. 44
    Tony Danza Says:
    If so, how could these developers have screwed up so much and not seen this coming?

    Why don’t you ask the developers in San Diego, anywhere in Florida, Nashville or any other bubble city that has imploded. Do a Google search on your question and you’ll find plenty of news articles chronicling the spectacular condo developer blow ups in the US. But don’t worry we’re different in Vancouver!

    nyc, I’m still waiting for your proof that NYC has more crime per capita than Vancouver. I’m moving there shortly and would hate to have the SO think I lied to her when telling her it’s safer there than here.

  45. 45
    franko Says:
    .
    .
    nyc asked:

    “do condo developers know something we don’t?”

    Large scale projects can take about 2 years from original commitment to eventual completion, while markets can shift significantly within a couple of months.

    Trust me, developers here cannot look into the future any farther than developers could in Miami 3 years ago.

  46. 46
    crabman Says:
    nyc, I’m not sure about the local developers, anybody know why developers overbuilt in other cities like San Diego or Miami?

    I met with a developer in Scottsdale, AZ right around the peak of the bubble there. I was hoping he bought the land before prices went up, so there would still be a profit potential even if prices fell 20% or so (which I expected at the time). Unfortunately he hadn’t, so the project would begin to lose money once prices fell 15% or so. When I mentioned my concern, he was in complete denial; “prices can’t go down much, everyone wants to live here, blah, blah, blah”. Needless to say, I passed on the project. I have the feeling most developers are like him.

  47. 47
    nyc Says:
    Well, Tony Danza, if you are moving to NYC, you will see firsthand with your own eyes how different it is from Vancouver regarding crime and safety and police presence, etc. You will be watched, searched and interrogated more than you’ve ever been in your life.

    Enjoy the Big Apple! It was a wonderful city before 9-11.

  48. 48
    Anonymous Says:
    I’m not sure what you’re complaining about about nyc, is it too much crime or too many police in NY? It seems to me we could use some more cops on the street here, Vancouver has the highest property crime in North America and a high violent crime rate, how is that preferable to police presence?
  49. 49
    Tony Danza Says:
    Large scale projects can take about 2 years from original commitment to eventual completion, while markets can shift significantly within a couple of months.

    If your business is building condos or houses the only choices you have are build and hope for the best or find another line of work. That’s why RE is so cyclical, who wants to be the first developer to pack it in in a booming market, eventually you end up with massive supply overhang like we have now.

    Everyone is answering your questions nyc can you answer one for me? Why are you asking these questions after you’ve already bought into the market and have stated that you’re quite comfortable with your purchase?

  50. 50
    Tony Danza Says:
    You will be watched, searched and interrogated more than you’ve ever been in your life.

    I’ve spent about ten months total in Manhattan proper since 911 and never been searched or interrogated. Neither has my sister or her husband (he’s Jordanian no less) who’ve lived there (Lower East Side) for going on 10 years. I’ve seen the reservists in the major subway stations though. I’d rather have a city crawling with law enforcement than junkies and mobsters any day, but that’s just me.

    You sound like you’re a bit paranoid, maybe you got into too much BC Bud before you came here?

  51. 51
    franko Says:
    .
    .
    We might be stuck with nyc (the person), but if I have to keep on getting my nose rubbed into nyc (the place), I think I’m gonna PUKE.
  52. 52
    jesse Says:
    nyc: “I can’t imagine that they would invest so heavily in new buildings if they didn’t have some confidence that they could sell them for a good profit”

    You would think so but bankrupt developers in places like Florida and California are evidence to the contrary. Cancellations and lack of sales are destroying them.

    Though it’s worth considering that developers rely on presales to finance their projects and from the contracts I’ve read in BC it’s almost impossible to cancel once you sign on the presale dotted line. Maybe others can comment better. I have often wondered about whether someone can really “walk away” from a presale.

  53. 53
    woodenhorse Says:
    Actually, I think nyc is indicative of one of the key pychological differences between bulls and bears: I’ve noted that a lot of bulls say “how can so many people be wrong?” or “builders aren’t dumb so why would they build?”. Rememeber the famuos Rennie quote about VHB? “If the blogger is right than a 1000 people are wrong”.

    Does this point to a more fundamental difference between the two groups?

    I bring this up because I’ve had several bullish friends make arguements to the same effect in trying to convince me to buy.

    It–in my opinion anyhow–takes a lot of guts and self confedence to not buy into this market as soon as you are able to when you see people lining up to buy DT condos yesterday!!

  54. 54
    betamax Says:
    Developers build because that’s what they do. Even when a coming correction is obvious, each one thinks they can squeeze out one more project before it crashes. Unfortunately, they all think that.
  55. 55
    bdk Says:
    Mflat, you’re right I wasn’t thinking!

    I worked in a non management role (Peon) at a real estate company for years and years. Had to post eviction notices and deal with tenants who’d taped shut all the drawers and left stinky food out because they were mad that the unit went up for sale.
    Once I thought about it what they did was gave them eviction notices two months before the lease expired.

    On month to month they had to go, threats to sue aside.

  56. 56
    Alpha_Bear Says:
    Kelowna listings are up.

    SFH’s up 29.07% YOY
    Condo’s up 83.1% YOY
    Townhouses up 49.53% YOY

    Kelowna sales are down.

    SFH’s down 19.56% YOY
    Condo’s down 20.72% YOY
    Townhouses down 25.2% YOY

    Kelowna’s unsold inventory is up dramatically.

    SFH’s inventory up 44.81% YOY
    Condo inventory up 108.38% YOY
    Townhouse inventory up 68.64% YOY

    Hey, I thought everyone wanted to live there? Perhaps they’re selling out and moving to Vancouver before the Olympics?

  57. 57
    any1 Says:
    Now we know why BC is at “top”:

    “…Forget forestry, fishing and tourism. There are startling new suggestions our province’s biggest money maker is organized crime.”

    http://www.news1130.com/news/local/arti … 73149_4576

  58. 58
    jesse Says:
    betamax: “Developers build because that’s what they do.”

    Good point. What would developers do if not developing? I think the smart ones scale back and internalize and the dumb ones won’t know any better and go BK. It’s so hard to time these things though. I’ve said it here before: it’s very hard to decide that doing nothing is the best option if your job is to do something. Doing nothing can mean layoffs and sometimes losing good talent but the alternative, if you think there’s a crash coming, is worse.

  59. 59
    mflat Says:
    bdk, appreciate the concession. Was a lively debate, anyway, no???

    Seriously though, the regulations are not written very clearly and I had a hard time making heads or tails of it over the past few days. You had me seriously doubting myself again!!!!

  60. 60
    nyc Says:
    Hey Danza, if you know so much about Manhattan, then why the hell do you keep asking me questions about it and then call me paranoid? Clearly you had a different experience/impression than I did. I lived there for 22 years, you lived there for 10 months. Perhaps therein lies the difference.

    So, you have never been searched or interrogated in NYC? Then how did you get into the country, sneak under the Immigration Officer’s desk??

    You sound like a Republican, so, you’ll love the corrupt NYPD and power-drunk security guards that are everywhere. Bon Voyage!

  61. 61
    nyc Says:
    woodenhorse, I’m not trying to convince anyone to run out and buy a condo. I’m neither a Bear or Bull. I’m more of a Blue-Footed Boobie.
  62. 62
    nyc Says:
    Danza said: Why are you asking these questions after you’ve already bought into the market and have stated that you’re quite comfortable with your purchase?

    Why do you care? Last I looked, this is a blog about Real Estate. I own Real Estate. Can you connect the dots from there??

  63. 63
    MATHAMATICAL Says:
    I found it funny today that my co-worker was trying to convince me to buy a condo in North Vancouver. He spoke with his uncle who was an RE agent. Same old crap, rich immigrants, lack of land, Olympics etc… He said if I’m lucky I can get in because places go fast.

    I asked why would I buy at the peak of the market??? Plus the payments would mean eating KD and tuna sandwiches for the next 20 years. I showed him the graph of high Inventory in that area. I then advised him not to waste his time but I would like to continue the conversation after three months to see where the market is going.

    Anybody who has taken an economics class can tell as supply rises and demand decreases it will only lead to lower prices.

  64. 64
    Van-zee Says:
    W-horse

    “It–in my opinion anyhow–takes a lot of guts and self confedence to not buy into this market as soon as you are able to when you see people lining up to buy DT condos yesterday!!”

    Some people see that huge line up outside Stepho’s on Davie and think that they must have the best food in town.

  65. 65
    bdk Says:
    that cknw article about organized crime being the big industry is kind of frightening.

    Can it be added to the links on the Friday free for all?

    that puts organized crime right up there with warehouse workers for $$$$.

  66. 66
    jesse Says:
    “Some people see that huge line up outside Stepho’s on Davie and think that they must have the best food in town.”

    Those guys are suckers. Everyone knows Anton’s is way better.

  67. 67
    mflat Says:
    Those guys are suckers. Everyone knows Anton’s is way better.

    LOL

  68. 68
    sidelines Says:
    Just did a quick search on crime rates. Here’s what I found (for 2004): http://www.toronto.ca/quality_of_life/safety.htm

    Looks like we top New York in break-ins per capita (1325 to 322), but after that New York’s got us beat in terms of murders and robberies (7.0 to 2.6 and 301 to 148, respectively).

  69. 69
    paulb Says:
    “2008-05-09 13:55:12
    Kelowna listings are up.

    SFH’s up 29.07% YOY
    Condo’s up 83.1% YOY
    Townhouses up 49.53% YOY

    Kelowna sales are down.

    SFH’s down 19.56% YOY
    Condo’s down 20.72% YOY
    Townhouses down 25.2% YOY

    Kelowna’s unsold inventory is up dramatically.

    SFH’s inventory up 44.81% YOY
    Condo inventory up 108.38% YOY
    Townhouse inventory up 68.64% YOY

    Hey, I thought everyone wanted to live there? Perhaps they’re selling out and moving to Vancouver before the Olympics?”

    Looks like Kelowna is about to take a beating. No surprise. The prices are out of this world. They are on [ar with Van East.

  70. 70
    Raincouver Says:
    .
    Actual ‘investors’ like Ozzie Jurock are staying away from properties in the city at these prices.

    Yesterday’s Sun had a full page puff-piece by Jurock titled “Why I will always buy real estate”. It was the real estate equivalent of Dance of the Seven Veils. Total and complete pablum.

  71. 71
    patriotz Says:
    It’s not an investment, it’s a capital loss and it will be for decades to come.

    Economic language police here.

    An “investment” is a capital asset that generates income. A “capital loss” is what you get when you sell an investment for less than you paid for it. You can make a profit on an investment, even if you sell it at a loss, if the income generated was adequate. Like a rental car, for example.

    An investment is not “something which makes me a profit”. Whether an investment makes you a profit depends on whether you paid the right price for it relative to the income which it generates, or whether you can find someone (the greater fool) to pay you a higher price if you didn’t.

    Have a good day.

  72. 72
    ulsterman Says:
    The Macleans article mentioned earlier via a News1130 link has lots of interesting stuff about the size of the criminal economy here in BC. Regarding real estate it states:

    “Even the booming real estate market — B.C.’s favourite fixation — has been caught up in criminal schemes. In the E-Paragon bust police seized nine multi-million-dollar homes allegedly bought with the proceeds of crime. Ye himself lived on a lovely riverfront street lined with cherry blossoms and fastidiously trimmed lawns. According to police, even young and unsophisticated street gangs have been caught sinking cold hard cash into properties as a way to launder money and generate seemingly easy returns. “You really have to look at the price of real estate in the Lower Mainland and ask ‘Who is buying?’ ” says Supt. John Robin with the B.C. integrated gang task force”

    Elsewhere it quotes a car dealer who claimed that 1/4 of all his sales were in cash and the cars sold to drug dealers.

    http://www.macleans.ca/canada/national/ … 6032_26032

  73. 73
    Raincouver Says:
    .
    Those are amazing numbers for Kelowna.

    Listings way up and sales way down. However, I’ll bet the prices are increasing quite nicely. That’s usually the focus for press releases/media reports.

    Got some relatives living there and the housing costs are just dizzying. Well, maybe it’s Napa Valley North.

    Kelowna won’t have a 2 week winter party like Vancouver, but they have something better … Ice Wine. And they’ll have that for a long time after our Olympic circus has left town:)

  74. 74
    Limey Says:
    “So, you have never been searched or interrogated in NYC? Then how did you get into the country, sneak under the Immigration Officer’s desk??

    You sound like a Republican, so, you’ll love the corrupt NYPD and power-drunk security guards that are everywhere. Bon Voyage!”

    I have to chirp in here. I presume you’re Canadian, so you’ve never joined the ‘other’ line-up at immigration. Canadian immigration is without the worst experience I’ve ever has entering into a country.

    Having lived in NYC, Vancouver, Manchester, and Wellington NZ - I can speak from experience that BC has the most obtrusive ‘nanny state’ society - even compared to NYC. I’ve never seen so many ‘Don’t do this..’ signs in a city. BC is a place that sems to thrive off red-tape, it loves rules.

    Don’t get me wrong, Vancouver is a great city - it comparing it to the likes of NYC or London is a joke. It’s a different league.

  75. 75
    visio Says:
    Prices are set by the buyers not by the sellers now and will be like that for looooong time, even if it’s not obvious right now. I met my former RE agent yesterday and he told me the same shit: prices went up 4% this year, he’s very busy bla bla bla. Told him to call me in 2-3 years when his commission will be half, since on my street (where i rent) there are 4 For Sale signs in one block distance (Renfrew Heights).
  76. 76
    pricedoutfornow Says:
    Paulb-thanks for posting the Kelowna stats!

    Anyone else notice that the price of recreational properties in Kelowna dropped 58% from last year? Recreational properties are usually the first to go. Kelowna doesn’t have too much of an economy-those high prices aren’t supported by high paying jobs by any means-most jobs are service-based (tourism, retail). Which takes out a whole bunch of FTBs since people in that age group are too poor to even consider buying. I’m not sure how long we can count on people from Alberta holding up the economy.

  77. 77
    pricedoutfornow Says:
    Oops-sorry I meant thanks Alpha Bear for the Kelowna stats!
  78. 78
    blueskies Says:
    It was the real estate equivalent of Dance of the Seven Veils.

    LOL!

    Ozzie the pole dancer!

    good one!

  79. 79
    coglione Says:
    “I can speak from experience that BC has the most obtrusive ‘nanny state’ society”

    You Brits sure do love that ‘nanny state’ reference, highly promoted by British society. It’s the favorite way to make simple and often spurious criticism of a government, I find it much abused in the UK. When I lived in London I remember this being used to criticize the public smoking ban. I also like the term used by many journalists, ‘health facsists’, for people in favour of the smoking ban. If smoking bans are for nanny states … bring on the nanny states, mate.

    border guards in Can., I agree, after showing my Can. passport they grill me, last time I just got mad. It’s funny to see how they operate based on some script based.

  80. 80
    M- Says:
    pricedoutfornow: where did you hear that recreational prices are down 58% in Kelowna? I’d love to read that article, or see that data. Could you provide a link, or let us know where you found/hears that?
  81. 81
    beatstreet Says:
    Looking at GVRD data, it would seem to me that the local market can at best absorb 19,000 new units per year based on population growth. That is based on an average household of 2.6 people, current population in GVRD of 2.1 million and a 2.5% pop growth which is about the 10 year annual grwoth rate (the 5 year is only about 1.3%).

    Given that listings are hitting 17,000, couldn’t we already be past the true 6 month inventory level and are really closer to 1 year’s worth. Add to that the number of starts and we have the makings of major pullback.

    I know the industry approach is to use annual sales as the metric to calculate inventory, but over the long term isn’t population growth more appropriate? Afterall, alot of sales are just speculators and people moving up or down in the market.

  82. 82
    patriotz Says:
    Prices are set by the buyers not by the sellers now

    Prices are always set buy the buyers, not the sellers.

    Past, present, and future.

  83. 83
    Strataman Says:
    “When I lived in London I remember this being used to criticize the public smoking ban. I also like the term used by many journalists, ‘health facsists’, for people in favour of the smoking ban. If smoking bans are for nanny states” It’s a good law but totally hypocritical, was talking to some people who were gloating about how healthy the sidewalk patio was now, I mentioned that they are breathing a toxic mixture of odorless CO and fine carbon particles far more hazardous to their health then second hand smoke and said I was trying to have the street closed to vehicle traffic so I didn’t have to breath the noxious fumes. I had noticed them drive up and park RIGHT IN FRONT of the restaurant. They got all pissy on me! :-)
  84. 84
    nyc Says:
    Limey, you are full of shit. Canada Immigration does not require visitors to be fingerprinted or iris-scanned, as the US does. Even a British newspaper called US Immigration the worst in the world a year ago:

    http://travel.timesonline.co.uk/tol/lif … 739096.ece

    US customs and immigration officials are notoriously cranky, rude and obnoxious, especially since 9-11 when they were handed powers they never had before. They are also rude to Americans, as I’ve experienced many times myself. Of all the times I traveled to Vancouver from NYC, I only had one unpleasant experience with a customs agent. Every person I’ve met in the government here, from Immigration to Dept. of Motor Vehicles, has been shockingly nice and friendly. Have you ever gone to the DMV or a government office in NYC? It’s NOT the same in any way, shape or form. Jury Duty in NYC is like serving a short prison sentence.

    If you do a Google search for “US Immigration rude” you will find TONS of articles about it, many from the UK. Here are a few more:

    http://travel.ciao.co.uk/New_York_Newar … ew_5361033
    http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1121-02.htm
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/society/me … ration.htm
    http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/printDS/147261

  85. 85
    Anonymus Says:
    The Economist gives Vancouver top score in culture…??? What exactly does this mean? There must be 100 cities in Europe that have more culture than Vancouver does.
  86. 86
    Patiently Waiting Says:
    Strataman,

    Yeah, its a bit ironic to complain about second hand smoke in the middle of a smoggy city. Even as a non-smoker, I cringe at the puritanical attitudes here. In Sincouver, none the less. We seem to go to from one extreme to another, just like our economy.

  87. 87
    Tony Danza Says:
    Are pre-sale closings counted as sales at the time of completion of the contract or when the pre-sale originates? Just wondering how many of the current sales being counted are of pre-sales from two or three years ago…

    Regarding the folks lining up for current pre-sales, man talk about not doing your research, many of them will be kicking themselves in a year or two.

  88. 88
    pricedoutfornow Says:
    M-Recreational properties in Kelowna-check out Alpha Bear’s link (see above in comments) to Central Okanagan RE data. Page 9 and 10 show the average and median price is down quite substantially.
    Now, this could be jumping to conclusions-who’s to say each “recreational property” is in the same price range anyway. Could be we’re comparing apples to oranges, say a three acre lot sold last year for $350k and this year a one acre lot is selling for only $150k. Not a big deal. Noted also that their listings of recreational properties is not up, as the rest of the properties. Overall, could mean nothing, but only time will tell.
  89. 89
    jesse Says:
    “Prices are always set buy the buyers, not the sellers.”

    Defo. How many times are you going to have to say this?

  90. 90
    franko Says:
    Hard to believe that some folks still dont understand that losers are paid to stand in line for cond presales.
    This has been admitted several times by lineruppers and promoters.
  91. 91
    Anonymous Says:
    Trying to find out one item. As far as developer recourse to a presale buyer walking away in the inconceivable event of a market decline, (Yeah, yeah, I know, just talking hypothetically here):
    What happens to an assignment buyer? Do they sign strong legal agreements with the developer as well? Because if not the developer could come after the original buyer should the assignment buyer run into trouble upon completion.

    Anyone in the biz know?

    This could get messy if it wasn’t different here/this time. Good thing RE only goes up so we won’t have to deal with this, except as blog speculation!

  92. 92
    Alexcanuck Says:
    15:45:27
    That’s me.
  93. 93
    chip Says:
    “Of all the times I traveled to Vancouver from NYC, I only had one unpleasant experience with a customs agent. Every person I’ve met in the government here, from Immigration to Dept. of Motor Vehicles, has been shockingly nice and friendly.”

    That’s just one person’s perspective. Personally, and I travel frequently, Canadian customs are the most irritating and obnoxious. I’m asked more useless questions at the Vancouver airport in one encounter than I’ve faced in a dozen trips to other countries. And what’s with the protective vests at the airport anyway? We’ve all just arrived on a plane where nail clippers are banned.

  94. 94
    JR Says:
    NYC

    I’m a Nexus card holder and a Canadian citizen. Nexus gives me a pass going to the US and coming back into Canada. Both countries, however, scan my irises and each have a copy of my fingerprints. Frankly, I don’t know why anyone would object to having fingerprints and iris impressions on file to gain entry in to a country, unless they have something to hide - in which case, they probably should be denied entry. I will give you, however, that US Customs and Immigration officers can be decidely anal and most are over-zealous.

  95. 95
    patriotz Says:
    Even as a non-smoker, I cringe at the puritanical attitudes here.

    Just what is “puritanical” about the government protecting a common resource, i.e. the air we breathe, from being made unhealthy?

    Do you think it’s “puritanical” that people aren’t allowed to piss in the Capilano Reservoir?

  96. 96
    Strataman Says:
    puritanical = hypocrite Why don’t they concentrate on something that would really make a difference. I walk everywhere and am really tired of breathing fumes from lazy drivers that commute to work. Plus I see the absolutely dirty filthy air handlers at the top of Vancouver condo’s 30 floors+ that distribute absolutely contaminated filthy air to every resident in the building. Cars man! ban them from down town! :-) The “Government” is doing NOTHING about real air quality.
  97. 97
    Strataman Says:
    I am kidding I’m a realist, clean air will never happen, money is what counts, just get tired of idiots that think some stupid bylaw makes a difference to the air quality. I am glad they have banned smoking from patios but that doesn’t come close or even affect a little bit the quality of the air. To use your example they have stopped people peeing in the reservoir but they are allowed to shit in it! :-)
  98. 98
    Strataman Says:
    Back to real estate; We broke 16,000 listings today, Paulb’s site. Interesting; permanent weekend shift at the board pretty soon? That would be counted as a new job I think? Vancouver’s economy is booming!
  99. 99
    patriotz Says:
    The argument that the government shouldn’t protect us from any threats to our well-being because it isn’t protecting us from all of them is ridiculous.

    If there is more to be done in protecting air quality, then the solution is to do more, not to do less.

  100. 100
    Strataman Says:
    “The argument that the government shouldn’t protect us from any threats to our well-being because it isn’t protecting us from all of them is ridiculous.” The only thing ridiculous is believing what they are doing is in any way related to air quality improvements. It’s just politics at it’s most basic level; just crap for the naive and stupid, which is where the votes are!

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