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May 10th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
“The argument that the government shouldn’t protect us from any threats to our well-being because it isn’t protecting us from all of them is ridiculous.” The only thing ridiculous is believing what they are doing is in any way related to air quality improvements. It’s just politics at it’s most basic level; just crap for the naive and stupid, which is where the votes are!
May 10th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
The argument that the government shouldn’t protect us from any threats to our well-being because it isn’t protecting us from all of them is ridiculous.
If there is more to be done in protecting air quality, then the solution is to do more, not to do less.
May 10th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Back to real estate; We broke 16,000 listings today, Paulb’s site. Interesting; permanent weekend shift at the board pretty soon? That would be counted as a new job I think? Vancouver’s economy is booming!
May 10th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
I am kidding I’m a realist, clean air will never happen, money is what counts, just get tired of idiots that think some stupid bylaw makes a difference to the air quality. I am glad they have banned smoking from patios but that doesn’t come close or even affect a little bit the quality of the air. To use your example they have stopped people peeing in the reservoir but they are allowed to shit in it!
May 10th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
puritanical = hypocrite Why don’t they concentrate on something that would really make a difference. I walk everywhere and am really tired of breathing fumes from lazy drivers that commute to work. Plus I see the absolutely dirty filthy air handlers at the top of Vancouver condo’s 30 floors+ that distribute absolutely contaminated filthy air to every resident in the building. Cars man! ban them from down town!
The “Government” is doing NOTHING about real air quality.
May 10th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Even as a non-smoker, I cringe at the puritanical attitudes here.
Just what is “puritanical” about the government protecting a common resource, i.e. the air we breathe, from being made unhealthy?
Do you think it’s “puritanical” that people aren’t allowed to piss in the Capilano Reservoir?
May 10th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
NYC
I’m a Nexus card holder and a Canadian citizen. Nexus gives me a pass going to the US and coming back into Canada. Both countries, however, scan my irises and each have a copy of my fingerprints. Frankly, I don’t know why anyone would object to having fingerprints and iris impressions on file to gain entry in to a country, unless they have something to hide – in which case, they probably should be denied entry. I will give you, however, that US Customs and Immigration officers can be decidely anal and most are over-zealous.
May 10th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
“Of all the times I traveled to Vancouver from NYC, I only had one unpleasant experience with a customs agent. Every person I’ve met in the government here, from Immigration to Dept. of Motor Vehicles, has been shockingly nice and friendly.”
That’s just one person’s perspective. Personally, and I travel frequently, Canadian customs are the most irritating and obnoxious. I’m asked more useless questions at the Vancouver airport in one encounter than I’ve faced in a dozen trips to other countries. And what’s with the protective vests at the airport anyway? We’ve all just arrived on a plane where nail clippers are banned.
May 10th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
15:45:27
That’s me.
May 10th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Trying to find out one item. As far as developer recourse to a presale buyer walking away in the inconceivable event of a market decline, (Yeah, yeah, I know, just talking hypothetically here):
What happens to an assignment buyer? Do they sign strong legal agreements with the developer as well? Because if not the developer could come after the original buyer should the assignment buyer run into trouble upon completion.
Anyone in the biz know?
This could get messy if it wasn’t different here/this time. Good thing RE only goes up so we won’t have to deal with this, except as blog speculation!
May 10th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Hard to believe that some folks still dont understand that losers are paid to stand in line for cond presales.
This has been admitted several times by lineruppers and promoters.
May 10th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
“Prices are always set buy the buyers, not the sellers.”
Defo. How many times are you going to have to say this?
May 10th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
M-Recreational properties in Kelowna-check out Alpha Bear’s link (see above in comments) to Central Okanagan RE data. Page 9 and 10 show the average and median price is down quite substantially.
Now, this could be jumping to conclusions-who’s to say each “recreational property” is in the same price range anyway. Could be we’re comparing apples to oranges, say a three acre lot sold last year for $350k and this year a one acre lot is selling for only $150k. Not a big deal. Noted also that their listings of recreational properties is not up, as the rest of the properties. Overall, could mean nothing, but only time will tell.
May 10th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Are pre-sale closings counted as sales at the time of completion of the contract or when the pre-sale originates? Just wondering how many of the current sales being counted are of pre-sales from two or three years ago…
Regarding the folks lining up for current pre-sales, man talk about not doing your research, many of them will be kicking themselves in a year or two.
May 10th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Strataman,
Yeah, its a bit ironic to complain about second hand smoke in the middle of a smoggy city. Even as a non-smoker, I cringe at the puritanical attitudes here. In Sincouver, none the less. We seem to go to from one extreme to another, just like our economy.
May 10th, 2008 at 11:31 am
The Economist gives Vancouver top score in culture…??? What exactly does this mean? There must be 100 cities in Europe that have more culture than Vancouver does.
May 10th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Limey, you are full of shit. Canada Immigration does not require visitors to be fingerprinted or iris-scanned, as the US does. Even a British newspaper called US Immigration the worst in the world a year ago:
http://travel.timesonline.co.u.....739096.ece
US customs and immigration officials are notoriously cranky, rude and obnoxious, especially since 9-11 when they were handed powers they never had before. They are also rude to Americans, as I’ve experienced many times myself. Of all the times I traveled to Vancouver from NYC, I only had one unpleasant experience with a customs agent. Every person I’ve met in the government here, from Immigration to Dept. of Motor Vehicles, has been shockingly nice and friendly. Have you ever gone to the DMV or a government office in NYC? It’s NOT the same in any way, shape or form. Jury Duty in NYC is like serving a short prison sentence.
If you do a Google search for “US Immigration rude” you will find TONS of articles about it, many from the UK. Here are a few more:
http://travel.ciao.co.uk/New_Y.....ew_5361033
http://www.commondreams.org/he.....121-02.htm
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/s.....ration.htm
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/printDS/147261
May 10th, 2008 at 10:59 am
“When I lived in London I remember this being used to criticize the public smoking ban. I also like the term used by many journalists, ‘health facsists’, for people in favour of the smoking ban. If smoking bans are for nanny states” It’s a good law but totally hypocritical, was talking to some people who were gloating about how healthy the sidewalk patio was now, I mentioned that they are breathing a toxic mixture of odorless CO and fine carbon particles far more hazardous to their health then second hand smoke and said I was trying to have the street closed to vehicle traffic so I didn’t have to breath the noxious fumes. I had noticed them drive up and park RIGHT IN FRONT of the restaurant. They got all pissy on me!
May 10th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Prices are set by the buyers not by the sellers now
Prices are always set buy the buyers, not the sellers.
Past, present, and future.
May 10th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Looking at GVRD data, it would seem to me that the local market can at best absorb 19,000 new units per year based on population growth. That is based on an average household of 2.6 people, current population in GVRD of 2.1 million and a 2.5% pop growth which is about the 10 year annual grwoth rate (the 5 year is only about 1.3%).
Given that listings are hitting 17,000, couldn’t we already be past the true 6 month inventory level and are really closer to 1 year’s worth. Add to that the number of starts and we have the makings of major pullback.
I know the industry approach is to use annual sales as the metric to calculate inventory, but over the long term isn’t population growth more appropriate? Afterall, alot of sales are just speculators and people moving up or down in the market.
May 10th, 2008 at 9:54 am
pricedoutfornow: where did you hear that recreational prices are down 58% in Kelowna? I’d love to read that article, or see that data. Could you provide a link, or let us know where you found/hears that?
May 10th, 2008 at 8:59 am
“I can speak from experience that BC has the most obtrusive ‘nanny state’ society”
You Brits sure do love that ‘nanny state’ reference, highly promoted by British society. It’s the favorite way to make simple and often spurious criticism of a government, I find it much abused in the UK. When I lived in London I remember this being used to criticize the public smoking ban. I also like the term used by many journalists, ‘health facsists’, for people in favour of the smoking ban. If smoking bans are for nanny states … bring on the nanny states, mate.
border guards in Can., I agree, after showing my Can. passport they grill me, last time I just got mad. It’s funny to see how they operate based on some script based.
May 10th, 2008 at 8:57 am
It was the real estate equivalent of Dance of the Seven Veils.
LOL!
Ozzie the pole dancer!
good one!
May 10th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Oops-sorry I meant thanks Alpha Bear for the Kelowna stats!
May 10th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Paulb-thanks for posting the Kelowna stats!
Anyone else notice that the price of recreational properties in Kelowna dropped 58% from last year? Recreational properties are usually the first to go. Kelowna doesn’t have too much of an economy-those high prices aren’t supported by high paying jobs by any means-most jobs are service-based (tourism, retail). Which takes out a whole bunch of FTBs since people in that age group are too poor to even consider buying. I’m not sure how long we can count on people from Alberta holding up the economy.
May 10th, 2008 at 7:46 am
Prices are set by the buyers not by the sellers now and will be like that for looooong time, even if it’s not obvious right now. I met my former RE agent yesterday and he told me the same shit: prices went up 4% this year, he’s very busy bla bla bla. Told him to call me in 2-3 years when his commission will be half, since on my street (where i rent) there are 4 For Sale signs in one block distance (Renfrew Heights).
May 10th, 2008 at 2:16 am
“So, you have never been searched or interrogated in NYC? Then how did you get into the country, sneak under the Immigration Officer’s desk??
You sound like a Republican, so, you’ll love the corrupt NYPD and power-drunk security guards that are everywhere. Bon Voyage!”
I have to chirp in here. I presume you’re Canadian, so you’ve never joined the ‘other’ line-up at immigration. Canadian immigration is without the worst experience I’ve ever has entering into a country.
Having lived in NYC, Vancouver, Manchester, and Wellington NZ – I can speak from experience that BC has the most obtrusive ‘nanny state’ society – even compared to NYC. I’ve never seen so many ‘Don’t do this..’ signs in a city. BC is a place that sems to thrive off red-tape, it loves rules.
Don’t get me wrong, Vancouver is a great city – it comparing it to the likes of NYC or London is a joke. It’s a different league.
May 9th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
.
Those are amazing numbers for Kelowna.
Listings way up and sales way down. However, I’ll bet the prices are increasing quite nicely. That’s usually the focus for press releases/media reports.
Got some relatives living there and the housing costs are just dizzying. Well, maybe it’s Napa Valley North.
Kelowna won’t have a 2 week winter party like Vancouver, but they have something better … Ice Wine. And they’ll have that for a long time after our Olympic circus has left town:)
May 9th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
The Macleans article mentioned earlier via a News1130 link has lots of interesting stuff about the size of the criminal economy here in BC. Regarding real estate it states:
“Even the booming real estate market — B.C.’s favourite fixation — has been caught up in criminal schemes. In the E-Paragon bust police seized nine multi-million-dollar homes allegedly bought with the proceeds of crime. Ye himself lived on a lovely riverfront street lined with cherry blossoms and fastidiously trimmed lawns. According to police, even young and unsophisticated street gangs have been caught sinking cold hard cash into properties as a way to launder money and generate seemingly easy returns. “You really have to look at the price of real estate in the Lower Mainland and ask ‘Who is buying?’ ” says Supt. John Robin with the B.C. integrated gang task force”
Elsewhere it quotes a car dealer who claimed that 1/4 of all his sales were in cash and the cars sold to drug dealers.
http://www.macleans.ca/canada/.....6032_26032
May 9th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
It’s not an investment, it’s a capital loss and it will be for decades to come.
Economic language police here.
An “investment” is a capital asset that generates income. A “capital loss” is what you get when you sell an investment for less than you paid for it. You can make a profit on an investment, even if you sell it at a loss, if the income generated was adequate. Like a rental car, for example.
An investment is not “something which makes me a profit”. Whether an investment makes you a profit depends on whether you paid the right price for it relative to the income which it generates, or whether you can find someone (the greater fool) to pay you a higher price if you didn’t.
Have a good day.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
.
Actual ‘investors’ like Ozzie Jurock are staying away from properties in the city at these prices.
Yesterday’s Sun had a full page puff-piece by Jurock titled “Why I will always buy real estate”. It was the real estate equivalent of Dance of the Seven Veils. Total and complete pablum.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
“2008-05-09 13:55:12
Kelowna listings are up.
SFH’s up 29.07% YOY
Condo’s up 83.1% YOY
Townhouses up 49.53% YOY
Kelowna sales are down.
SFH’s down 19.56% YOY
Condo’s down 20.72% YOY
Townhouses down 25.2% YOY
Kelowna’s unsold inventory is up dramatically.
SFH’s inventory up 44.81% YOY
Condo inventory up 108.38% YOY
Townhouse inventory up 68.64% YOY
Hey, I thought everyone wanted to live there? Perhaps they’re selling out and moving to Vancouver before the Olympics?”
Looks like Kelowna is about to take a beating. No surprise. The prices are out of this world. They are on [ar with Van East.
May 9th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Just did a quick search on crime rates. Here’s what I found (for 2004): http://www.toronto.ca/quality_of_life/safety.htm
Looks like we top New York in break-ins per capita (1325 to 322), but after that New York’s got us beat in terms of murders and robberies (7.0 to 2.6 and 301 to 148, respectively).
May 9th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Those guys are suckers. Everyone knows Anton’s is way better.
LOL
May 9th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
“Some people see that huge line up outside Stepho’s on Davie and think that they must have the best food in town.”
Those guys are suckers. Everyone knows Anton’s is way better.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
that cknw article about organized crime being the big industry is kind of frightening.
Can it be added to the links on the Friday free for all?
that puts organized crime right up there with warehouse workers for $$$$.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
W-horse
“It–in my opinion anyhow–takes a lot of guts and self confedence to not buy into this market as soon as you are able to when you see people lining up to buy DT condos yesterday!!”
Some people see that huge line up outside Stepho’s on Davie and think that they must have the best food in town.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
I found it funny today that my co-worker was trying to convince me to buy a condo in North Vancouver. He spoke with his uncle who was an RE agent. Same old crap, rich immigrants, lack of land, Olympics etc… He said if I’m lucky I can get in because places go fast.
I asked why would I buy at the peak of the market??? Plus the payments would mean eating KD and tuna sandwiches for the next 20 years. I showed him the graph of high Inventory in that area. I then advised him not to waste his time but I would like to continue the conversation after three months to see where the market is going.
Anybody who has taken an economics class can tell as supply rises and demand decreases it will only lead to lower prices.
May 9th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Danza said: Why are you asking these questions after you’ve already bought into the market and have stated that you’re quite comfortable with your purchase?
Why do you care? Last I looked, this is a blog about Real Estate. I own Real Estate. Can you connect the dots from there??
May 9th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
woodenhorse, I’m not trying to convince anyone to run out and buy a condo. I’m neither a Bear or Bull. I’m more of a Blue-Footed Boobie.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Hey Danza, if you know so much about Manhattan, then why the hell do you keep asking me questions about it and then call me paranoid? Clearly you had a different experience/impression than I did. I lived there for 22 years, you lived there for 10 months. Perhaps therein lies the difference.
So, you have never been searched or interrogated in NYC? Then how did you get into the country, sneak under the Immigration Officer’s desk??
You sound like a Republican, so, you’ll love the corrupt NYPD and power-drunk security guards that are everywhere. Bon Voyage!
May 9th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
bdk, appreciate the concession. Was a lively debate, anyway, no???
Seriously though, the regulations are not written very clearly and I had a hard time making heads or tails of it over the past few days. You had me seriously doubting myself again!!!!
May 9th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
betamax: “Developers build because that’s what they do.”
Good point. What would developers do if not developing? I think the smart ones scale back and internalize and the dumb ones won’t know any better and go BK. It’s so hard to time these things though. I’ve said it here before: it’s very hard to decide that doing nothing is the best option if your job is to do something. Doing nothing can mean layoffs and sometimes losing good talent but the alternative, if you think there’s a crash coming, is worse.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Now we know why BC is at “top”:
“…Forget forestry, fishing and tourism. There are startling new suggestions our province’s biggest money maker is organized crime.”
http://www.news1130.com/news/l.....73149_4576
May 9th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Kelowna listings are up.
SFH’s up 29.07% YOY
Condo’s up 83.1% YOY
Townhouses up 49.53% YOY
Kelowna sales are down.
SFH’s down 19.56% YOY
Condo’s down 20.72% YOY
Townhouses down 25.2% YOY
Kelowna’s unsold inventory is up dramatically.
SFH’s inventory up 44.81% YOY
Condo inventory up 108.38% YOY
Townhouse inventory up 68.64% YOY
Hey, I thought everyone wanted to live there? Perhaps they’re selling out and moving to Vancouver before the Olympics?
May 9th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Mflat, you’re right I wasn’t thinking!
I worked in a non management role (Peon) at a real estate company for years and years. Had to post eviction notices and deal with tenants who’d taped shut all the drawers and left stinky food out because they were mad that the unit went up for sale.
Once I thought about it what they did was gave them eviction notices two months before the lease expired.
On month to month they had to go, threats to sue aside.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Developers build because that’s what they do. Even when a coming correction is obvious, each one thinks they can squeeze out one more project before it crashes. Unfortunately, they all think that.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Actually, I think nyc is indicative of one of the key pychological differences between bulls and bears: I’ve noted that a lot of bulls say “how can so many people be wrong?” or “builders aren’t dumb so why would they build?”. Rememeber the famuos Rennie quote about VHB? “If the blogger is right than a 1000 people are wrong”.
Does this point to a more fundamental difference between the two groups?
I bring this up because I’ve had several bullish friends make arguements to the same effect in trying to convince me to buy.
It–in my opinion anyhow–takes a lot of guts and self confedence to not buy into this market as soon as you are able to when you see people lining up to buy DT condos yesterday!!
May 9th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
nyc: “I can’t imagine that they would invest so heavily in new buildings if they didn’t have some confidence that they could sell them for a good profit”
You would think so but bankrupt developers in places like Florida and California are evidence to the contrary. Cancellations and lack of sales are destroying them.
Though it’s worth considering that developers rely on presales to finance their projects and from the contracts I’ve read in BC it’s almost impossible to cancel once you sign on the presale dotted line. Maybe others can comment better. I have often wondered about whether someone can really “walk away” from a presale.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
.
.
We might be stuck with nyc (the person), but if I have to keep on getting my nose rubbed into nyc (the place), I think I’m gonna PUKE.