Yeah, that theory is working out nicely. Never mind all of Canada, there’s tons of people that believe Vancouver is a special planet - totally exempt from the vicissitudes of life on Earth.

List of non-recourse mortgage walkaway states

If you want to see a fascinating tableau of the foreclosure fiasco, just google “non-recourse states”.

Also some of his properties were in Arizona and Nevada. Don’t know if they are non-recourse or not.

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news … 9baf7cef44

…wait a second…3 months ago, according to the media, Canada was going to avoid a recession completely. i love atching the media “gear down” the news with time as if we won’t notice.

Yeah. ‘Regrettably’. That’s funny:)

“I knew I was sitting on time bombs,” Forgaard said. “I knew the market was going to go soft and I knew that property values would decline. But I figured that I had enough equity to survive the storm and sell or take the loss and refinance.

“I didn’t anticipate a downturn of epic proportions such that home values are 40 percent less than they were,” he said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24569891/ ]]> http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/05/friday-free-for-all-20.html#comment-17950 Anonymous Mon, 12 May 2008 07:26:39 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/05/friday-free-for-all-20.html#comment-17950 Tsur Sommerville's comment don't make sense. It does have to have 20 to 30% annual increase to create a bubble. If a tire could only take 50 psi before it pops, it doesn't matter if you increase the pressure slowly or really fast. Once it reaches 50 psi, it's gonna pop. Same could be said about the real estate market. If the real estate market bubble pops when average homes exceeds average income by more than 4 times, then the bubble will pop regardless as to whether it took 5 years to get there or 2 years. Anyways, it doesn't matter what Tsur says. The market has turned. Within 6 months, everyone will freak out. We will see double digits decreases from it's peak in 2008. Tsur Sommerville’s comment don’t make sense. It does have to have 20 to 30% annual increase to create a bubble.

If a tire could only take 50 psi before it pops, it doesn’t matter if you increase the pressure slowly or really fast. Once it reaches 50 psi, it’s gonna pop.

Same could be said about the real estate market. If the real estate market bubble pops when average homes exceeds average income by more than 4 times, then the bubble will pop regardless as to whether it took 5 years to get there or 2 years.

Anyways, it doesn’t matter what Tsur says. The market has turned. Within 6 months, everyone will freak out. We will see double digits decreases from it’s peak in 2008.

“Tsur Sommerville. I had given him the benefit of the doubt to date, but now he has officially crossed the line into industry shill/ignorant asshat territory:”

Tsur, Bill Good, Pastrick, Muir,Baxter, make big bucks peddling BS.

Chipman and his chimp Quasi Moto Aaron deserve more respect, as they don’t hide what they pump.

So right, and more so! What we do have for an economy outside of RE is getting hammered by the US troubles, which are due to start round 2 any day now. We have seen their housing market collapse, the financial system creak, groan and start to tilt. The Fed plastered the worst of the cracks over with even more borrowed and imaginary dollars to buy some time. The structural deficiencies remain.

The US real economy is now in trouble and no quick fix in sight for that. When that becomes undeniable round 2 starts. Ours, of course, is the sideshow which follows a bit behind.

Anyone else care to weigh in on that presale assignment question?
(Is the developer a party to an assignment, thus freeing the original buyer from liability?) Someone must know!
Thanks, Raincouver. Just speculation there, good reading though.

Like other capital assets, buying housing and consuming it (i.e. living in it) are two different things.

Also no recession is needed to bring house prices down. Exhibit A is Calgary and Edmonton where house prices have been falling for a year during a booming economy. Also the first year of the US bust.

But when RE is the economy, like in the US and BC, an RE bust brings on a recession by itself. ]]> http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/05/friday-free-for-all-20.html#comment-17945 Michael Randallbard Mon, 12 May 2008 02:01:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/05/friday-free-for-all-20.html#comment-17945 Priced Out? Too bad someone doesn't appeal to all those who are "Priced Out" to STOP CONSUMING anything whatsoever they don't absolutely need in order to survive which hopefully will bring this economy here into a recession and force people to leave. Priced Out?

Too bad someone doesn’t appeal to all those who are “Priced Out” to STOP CONSUMING anything whatsoever they don’t absolutely need in order to survive which hopefully will bring this economy here into a recession and force people to leave.

The Time cover marked the beginning of the North American bust - San Diego started falling soon thereafter - and the Vancouver covers mark the start of the finale in Vancouver.

I have just skimmed this multi article piece so far, and there is so much to comment on, I will start with two:

1. This article laments the social and demographic impact of high prices. This is a chance to spin the bears are “negative” the other way. Obviously the intangibles of high prices are huge. It could easily be argued that bears are positive and bulls are negative. Of course, I think the entire notion of putting market sentiment into “positive” and “negative” is pointless, but food for thought nonetheless.

2.

Tsur Sommerville. I had given him the benefit of the doubt to date, but now he has officially crossed the line into industry shill/ignorant asshat territory:

Somerville says he’s reluctant to use the B-word because the numbers are not adding up to such a scenario.

“If you say bubble, then at some point it’s going to pop. And if you look at our price increases, they’ve been double-digit, but for the most part they’ve been between 11 to 15 per cent for the past few years. That’s high, but in a bubble you start to see 20-per-cent growth, 30-per-cent growth. Just really rapid acceleration, and we haven’t seen that. That’s what happened in 1981 and 1982 . . . That’s what a bubble looks like.”

So it is not a bubble because we had 15 percent for 6 years instead of 30% for three? That has to be the dumbest argument EVER. What a clown.

anyone else notice that they’re not opening up the real estate articles for comments anymore? They’re probably afraid some real info might show up.

This is exactly the kind of cautionary article I’ve been expecting to show up about the social implications of high real estate prices.

Keep your eyes peeled for stories of peoples financial mistakes and fraud next.

There’s a thread on RET titled “Flipping Pre-Sales For Zero Fun and Zero Profit”. Gets interesting around page 5.

your average kid wouldn’t care if it is a condo, townhouse or doghouse. the importance would lie in the “caring” from the parents not the social standing of being a homedebtor…. we are losing track of what is important.

BTW not to impressed with the article but that is par for the course for the Province.

When a presale assignment is made, does the developer specifically absolve the original buyer from any future liability should the greater fool
proud new owner run into trouble and be unable to complete?

Strikes me that no matter the strength of any agreement between flipper and fool if the developer isn’t party to it then flipper is remains liable. Flipper can sue fool all they want, but won’t get them off the hook to take possession and pay.

Of course, this is just an intellectual endeavor, for prices never go down in the best place on earth. Well, never again, now that we have the Olympics.