Friday free for all
It open-topic time, here are a few news stories to kick off the discussion:
- Rennies ‘simple solution‘ for affordability
- Greatest gangland on earth
- Home market flooded by sellers
- Woodwards redevelopment stumbles on
- Another blow for BC forestry industry
- Boom over, no bust predicted
- Home sales falling fast
- Canada, sucker nation
- RBC writedown only $855 Million
- Canadians invade Florida
- 9 foreclosures + bankruptcy = mistake
- Bernankes bubble laboratory
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a great weekend!
note: any conversation on real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. when posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Thanks!
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May 15th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
May 15th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
But to say that there won’t be a bust anywhere is absurd. House prices are clearly overvalued in the large cities, especially in Toronto and the West. It reminds me of the joke about the statistician who claims that, “on average, the river is only 3 feet deep”, and proceeds to drown in the middle while attempting to cross it.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:32 am
That said, i don’t think Vancouver has much character, soul or world class status.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:43 am
May 16th, 2008 at 1:26 am
They’re not clearly overvalued in Ottawa and Montreal at all. Toronto is the only city east of the Lakehead where a nominal correction is inevitable IMHO.
A 15% correction would bring price/rent in Toronto to the same level as a 50% bust in Vancouver. Think about that one.
May 16th, 2008 at 5:43 am
Despite what many self-loathers around here say, Vancouver does have some notoriety around the world. What defines “world class city” is up for debate, and certainly that term gets thrown around too much, but Vancouver is at least known.
Interesting article on the Woodwards project. Looks like Rennie is claiming to have saved the DTES. How’s that working out for you Bob?
May 16th, 2008 at 6:29 am
Royal Bank of Canada’s announcement Wednesday it will take an $855-million charge in the second quarter of 2008…Following the announcement, RBC’s stock price jumped 2.5 per cent Wednesday to close at $49.82
Maybe we are in a new paradigm where fundamentals do not matter.
May 16th, 2008 at 6:46 am
Has it really come to this? Get it through your head, fella: not liking Vancouver, or liking it but just thinking it’s too expensive or overrated, is no more “self-loathing” than holding the same views about Trail, Fort McMurray, Toronto, or any other city.
Vancouver is not God’s chosen city, and there is no divine obligation to feel it is “the best place on earth”.
Bleah.
May 16th, 2008 at 7:16 am
And of the four cities, it’s only Vancouver in which this fact was noticed or discussed by anyone.
May 16th, 2008 at 7:41 am
I didn’t say the city was the best place on earth. I’m referring to the “grass is always greener” crowd that exists in this city. There is way too much self-love and self-hate. Its funny to watch. The people complaining non-stop about it and still living here are the biggest hypocrites of them all. RE is too expensive? Rent and STFU. Canada is a great country, Vancouver is a great city. Best on Earth? No. Backwater? No.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:20 am
I had a friend in town for the day - they had a half day layover at the airport so I took them out for lunch. They saw the Richmond BC “Better in Every Way” banners and the Vancouver “Best Place on Earth” license plates and thought they were hilarious. It’s rather embarrassing, like having an attractive friend that keeps shouting “I’m beautiful! I’m the most beautiful person on Earth!
May 16th, 2008 at 8:33 am
May 16th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Two Americans, a Kiwi, and a family of Australians are all returning home - they all like it here, but the economics don’t make sense to them, they’re work has finished or they’re homesick. Then there are the locals born here, one moving to Europe, one to the US (cash out tiny condo and get a house in the sun with a pool), and a few moving elsewhere in Canada.
This could be just an anomoly in my group of friends and coworkers, but I wonder if the already underwhelming population growth graph is about to take a downturn?
May 16th, 2008 at 8:54 am
Does anyone know how reliable these stats are?
May 16th, 2008 at 8:55 am
http://www.smh.com.au/news/tra.....74029.html
May 16th, 2008 at 8:56 am
May 16th, 2008 at 8:57 am
He did a number on the unemployment rate down there, by hiring the dtesiders to line up at his pre-sales.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:59 am
May 16th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Ummm Ulsterman, have you ever watched the BBC news channel weather reports anywhere other than Western Canada? Did they still report the weather for Vancouver?
I’ve watched the same BBC channel with the same weather people in Chicago and NYC and they don’t report Vancouver’s weather, they show western US cities. TV is a magical medium where they can record many things then edit them for different markets. Think about it.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:03 am
John, yup, seems that Canada has achieved that same new paradigm that the Dow/S&P/etc have achieved in the US.
Bad news - Stock goes up
Good news - Stock goes up
No news - Stock is a crap shoot
Speaking of craps and gambling, it seems that the big boys are controlling the markets these days, I’m beginning to wonder whether there is any possibility of a crash as the manipulation is too apparent these days.
Shorting these days on the expectation of bad news is NOT smart!
May 16th, 2008 at 9:03 am
May 16th, 2008 at 9:10 am
May 16th, 2008 at 9:26 am
May 16th, 2008 at 9:40 am
He thinks all the people that are predicting a crash or correction are bitter people who never bought when they had the chance. I laughed it off. I said I will let the stats do the talking.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:41 am
The National Post piece on Canada as a Sucker Nation was infuriorating! Our government, at every level, are just a bunch of sellouts!
Governments should fear the people.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Talking yesterday with a friend from high management at Terasen, they are complaining that a big chunk of downtown condos(didn’t really specified the percent but this thing is raising concerns in the company) have a low gas consuption bill, if almost close to 0
May 16th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Anyone who lashes out like this does not understand real estate, and should not have bought due to this lack of understanding.
Those of us ‘predicting a crash or correction [and] are bitter’ are actually upbeat, optimists of future affordability! We are also opportunists! Buy low, sell high. That’s what my grandfather taught me, and he died a wealthy man. Maybe your co-worker didn’t have the benefit of a wise grandfather?!?
May 16th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Yes.
I work in a youthful workplace with some relatively well paid entry jobs (for Vancouver). In the last few months, I’ve been shocked at how many people aren’t only leaving the company but Vancouver itself.
Top 3 reasons:
1) Two really bad winters in a row with six months of dark, depressing weather.
2) Limited career possibilities.
3) Poor quality or expensive rental housing.
This isn’t about real estate prices, because I rarely heard them talk about buying. The negatives are starting outweigh the positive here, in many ways. Traffic and homelessness further add to the general unease people feel after living here a short time.
I will not be surprised if see stats showing increased out-migration and population decline.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:30 am
How’s does one improve one’s wealth. Ah yes, buy low sell high not buy high and pray to God to sell higher.
Funny how some people will be denial as prices start to fall. He agreed that prices will fall in Surrey and Langley but not in North Van where his precious condo is located. It’s all about location, location, location. The problem is if there are foreclosures all over the region everybody will be affected.
I’m rather calm these days. The bulls seem to be one’s panicking. I enjoy watching the open houses signs popping up all over the place. It puts a tingle in my heart.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Comment by visio
Talking yesterday with a friend from high management at Terasen, they are complaining that a big chunk of downtown condos(didn’t really specified the percent but this thing is raising concerns in the company) have a low gas consuption bill, if almost close to 0
May 16th, 2008 at 10:42 am
It would be great to see friends and family of mine afford property without going into such massive debt as today. But make no mistake that if prices drop significantly there will be pain for many and it’s hard to be optimistic about that. The only advice I can give to “bitter” renters is to spend a bit more money to rent something nice and liveable; it will still be cheaper than owning almost guaranteed for the next few years.
MC_V, sounds like your grandfather didn’t spend his money fast enough if he died wealthy, but maybe you meant wealthy in the holistic sense.
What they say: the last cheque you write before you die should bounce.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:45 am
I’m starting to find it harder and harder to get up in the morning, knowing I’m about to face another hellish commute into downtown.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:47 am
“Anyone who lashes out like this does not understand real estate, and should not have bought due to this lack of understanding.”
Regardless if you don’t think prices are going to keep going up then you are hoping that greedy speculators won’t make an easy hundred grand on all twelve of the pre sales they bought with the intention of gouging and that means you hate Vancouver and are a communist and should move away and it also means you’re a bitter renter and you’re an asshat
May 16th, 2008 at 11:25 am
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....961a5adc15
May 16th, 2008 at 11:27 am
CMHC says prices of existing houses will rise this year by 9.3 per cent in B.C., 3.6 per cent in Alberta, 26.1 per cent in Saskatchewan, 13.5 per cent in Manitoba, 3.5 per cent in Ontario, 4.7 per cent in Quebec, four per cent in New Brunswick, five per cent in Nova Scotia, three per cent in Prince Edward Island and 10.5 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador
May 16th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Well said!!! Sums up what most recent RE buyers are feeling today…
“But make no mistake that if prices drop significantly there will be pain for many and it’s hard to be optimistic about that.”
I hear you, but it will be bitter/sweet in a way as I warned people earnestly in the last few years to be careful, and maybe try to wait it out. As most of us ‘Bears’ (or future ‘RE bulls’ as I prefer) have experienced, I took a lot of flak for that position. It’s going to be hard to be consoling in one breath, and on the next saying ‘I told you so!’
“the last cheque you write before you die should bounce.”
I agree totally
but he was too generous!
May 16th, 2008 at 11:58 am
May 16th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Good. I hope they go out of business. Terasen is the single most predatory and unscrupulous corporate entity it has ever my total lack of pleasure to be unable to avoid dealing with.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Being a bear is often thankless. Telling people to be careful and ensuring they get arguments for and against a crash is probably the best tack. Truth is most people want you to agree with them because it makes them feel supported. There’s a time and a place for “i told u so” and I’ll be the first to tear a strip off anyone who says that nobody credible saw the crash coming. Of course I may be waiting a long time ’cause prices haven’t dropped yet…
May 16th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
It is about real estate somewhat, though. If it was possible for those people to buy a house they might have an incentive to stay. However, people who are in their mid-20s now have never seen prices low enough that they could even consider buying. If they combined two incomes, then they could afford a condo big enough for one person. They have already been priced out of the market, and you can’t really blame them for not toughing it out.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
The sunny day means my bank balance can only go up up up!
May 16th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Awww you home debtors get to eat dinner on patios AND have a girlfriend!?!
Your stupidity is mind boggling.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
When I have parties 3 smokers can fit, 2 sitting and 1 standing. The strata can kiss my ass if they want to fine me for allowing smokers to smoke outside.
May 16th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
That said - they get $11/month for the privilege of bringing gas into your home. $132/year off every unit in a building probably makes them some money.
May 16th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Those “green” millenium olympic buildings seem to have floor to ceiling glass windows and baseboard heat.
No geothermal?
May 16th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
I’ll have dinner and drinks on my deck with a view, snuggle with my GF, watch the stars come out, and then go inside my delightful rented house to watch prices go down, down, down!
All the time, I’m glad that I’m short the real estate market, and that my investments (funded by the sale of my last house) are increasing in value at the same time as my housing costs have been cut by two-thirds.
Sell now, or be priced in forever.
May 16th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
i was just reading that woodwards article. Does this mean that the taxpayers of BC are now subsiding the ’specuvestors’ of Woodwards?
Having said that, the DTES needs this sort of thing in conjunction with social housing. It’s a f’effing mess down there and for too long nobody in government has given a shit.
I met someone the other day who bought a Woodwards place and plans to live in it. I was amazed…
May 16th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
http://dailydose4u.wordpress.c.....bc-canada/
They should get some cafe’s in coquitlam!
May 16th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
May 16th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
LOL. That’s priceless.
May 16th, 2008 at 4:24 pm