Friday free for all
It open-topic time, here are a few news stories to kick off the discussion:
- Rennies ‘simple solution‘ for affordability
- Greatest gangland on earth
- Home market flooded by sellers
- Woodwards redevelopment stumbles on
- Another blow for BC forestry industry
- Boom over, no bust predicted
- Home sales falling fast
- Canada, sucker nation
- RBC writedown only $855 Million
- Canadians invade Florida
- 9 foreclosures + bankruptcy = mistake
- Bernankes bubble laboratory
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have a great weekend!
note: any conversation on real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. when posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Thanks!
May 15th, 2008 at 11:10 pm 1
Does Rennie's density 'plan', imply that the developer will also foot the bill for increased public infrastructure costs? Or are the rest of Vancouver's residents required to subsidise the developer's profits by means of increased property taxes?
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May 16th, 2008 at 12:32 am 2
I was watching BBC World News and they did their weather minute. When it came to North America they only profiled four cities: NYC, Miami, LA and… Vancouver. I must admit that i was surprised, but i wonder what this says about our world class status? Some food for thought, given many poo poo Vancouver's status.
That said, i don't think Vancouver has much character, soul or world class status.
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:43 am 3
ulsterman: I was watching BBC World News and they did their weather minute. When it came to North America they only profiled four cities: NYC, Miami, LA and… Vancouver. I must admit that i was surprised, but i wonder what this says about our world class status?
Despite what many self-loathers around here say, Vancouver does have some notoriety around the world. What defines "world class city" is up for debate, and certainly that term gets thrown around too much, but Vancouver is at least known.
Interesting article on the Woodwards project. Looks like Rennie is claiming to have saved the DTES. How's that working out for you Bob?
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May 16th, 2008 at 7:16 am 4
When it came to North America they only profiled four cities: NYC, Miami, LA and… Vancouver
And of the four cities, it's only Vancouver in which this fact was noticed or discussed by anyone.
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May 15th, 2008 at 11:28 pm 5
The Scotiabank article may be partly right in stating that, overall, housing prices in Canada are not too overvalued. But that’s only because there are so many parts of the country (Quebec, atlantic provinces) that haven’t experienced a boom.
But to say that there won’t be a bust anywhere is absurd. House prices are clearly overvalued in the large cities, especially in Toronto and the West. It reminds me of the joke about the statistician who claims that, “on average, the river is only 3 feet deep”, and proceeds to drown in the middle while attempting to cross it.
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:20 am 6
Vancouver also happens to be at the fourth corner of North America – had they used Seattle they would have ignored Canada completely, and certainly they weren't going to replace New York with Halifax. We do exist, we have a nice city, that doesn't make bubble prices worth it.
I had a friend in town for the day – they had a half day layover at the airport so I took them out for lunch. They saw the Richmond BC "Better in Every Way" banners and the Vancouver "Best Place on Earth" license plates and thought they were hilarious. It's rather embarrassing, like having an attractive friend that keeps shouting "I'm beautiful! I'm the most beautiful person on Earth!
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May 16th, 2008 at 12:43 am 7
I just noticed the Economist’s article re: Gangs spoiling Lotus Land. Last night i was in the Cactus Club on Lougheed. Sitting a few seats over at the bar were 3 guys, one of who sported many tattoes. A few minutes later 4 cops with Anti-Gang jackets came in and after a few minutes they removed the tattoed fraternity. 5 minutes later they returned and moved to the far side of the restaurant ans removed 3 Asian guys. I was shocked to think that so many gangsters were in so innocuous a place.
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:57 am 8
Warren said: "Looks like Rennie is claiming to have saved the DTES. How’s that working out for you Bob?"
He did a number on the unemployment rate down there, by hiring the dtesiders to line up at his pre-sales.
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:59 am 9
MC_V: The stats come directly from the REBGV, I trust Paul, and even if I didn't there are plenty of realtors out there with access to the same numbers that would be motivated to correct them if they were wrong.
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:01 am 10
When it came to North America they only profiled four cities: NYC, Miami, LA and… Vancouver. I must admit that i was surprised, but i wonder what this says about our world class status?
Ummm Ulsterman, have you ever watched the BBC news channel weather reports anywhere other than Western Canada? Did they still report the weather for Vancouver?
I've watched the same BBC channel with the same weather people in Chicago and NYC and they don't report Vancouver's weather, they show western US cities. TV is a magical medium where they can record many things then edit them for different markets. Think about it.
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:03 am 11
John said: "Maybe we are in a new paradigm where fundamentals do not matter. re: RBC write-down.
John, yup, seems that Canada has achieved that same new paradigm that the Dow/S&P/etc have achieved in the US.
Bad news – Stock goes up
Good news – Stock goes up
No news – Stock is a crap shoot
Speaking of craps and gambling, it seems that the big boys are controlling the markets these days, I'm beginning to wonder whether there is any possibility of a crash as the manipulation is too apparent these days.
Shorting these days on the expectation of bad news is NOT smart!
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:03 am 12
Thanks Digi!
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:10 am 13
Vancouver is a nice city and deserves to be on BBC. Prices are still too high though.
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:26 am 14
I agree Vancouver is a nice city but prices are way too high and surely on there way down. I love the RE agent way of economics. High supply + low demand equals higher prices. Do you guys find these days that owners are getting way two defensive?
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May 16th, 2008 at 1:26 am 15
House prices are clearly overvalued in the large cities, especially in Toronto and the West.
They’re not clearly overvalued in Ottawa and Montreal at all. Toronto is the only city east of the Lakehead where a nominal correction is inevitable IMHO.
A 15% correction would bring price/rent in Toronto to the same level as a 50% bust in Vancouver. Think about that one.
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:40 am 16
Sorry meant "too" not "two". The reason I say this is because out of no where my co-worker lashed out at me. I showed him that inventory is almost 17,000 and sales for May are way down. I said bubble has busted and now it's all downhill from here.
He thinks all the people that are predicting a crash or correction are bitter people who never bought when they had the chance. I laughed it off. I said I will let the stats do the talking.
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:41 am 17
Good articles posted today, as always!
The National Post piece on Canada as a Sucker Nation was infuriorating! Our government, at every level, are just a bunch of sellouts!
Governments should fear the people.
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:51 am 18
BBC has targeted weather programs for different zones, in Alberta you'll porbably see Calgary and in Seattle guess if Vancouver will be on the map? NOT.
Talking yesterday with a friend from high management at Terasen, they are complaining that a big chunk of downtown condos(didn't really specified the percent but this thing is raising concerns in the company) have a low gas consuption bill, if almost close to 0
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:54 am 19
"He thinks all the people that are predicting a crash or correction are bitter people who never bought when they had the chance. I laughed it off. I said I will let the stats do the talking."
Anyone who lashes out like this does not understand real estate, and should not have bought due to this lack of understanding.
Those of us 'predicting a crash or correction [and] are bitter' are actually upbeat, optimists of future affordability! We are also opportunists! Buy low, sell high. That's what my grandfather taught me, and he died a wealthy man. Maybe your co-worker didn't have the benefit of a wise grandfather?!?
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:30 am 20
"Anybody else here know people leaving Vancouver? Over the last week I’ve found out about several people leaving."
Yes.
I work in a youthful workplace with some relatively well paid entry jobs (for Vancouver). In the last few months, I've been shocked at how many people aren't only leaving the company but Vancouver itself.
Top 3 reasons:
1) Two really bad winters in a row with six months of dark, depressing weather.
2) Limited career possibilities.
3) Poor quality or expensive rental housing.
This isn't about real estate prices, because I rarely heard them talk about buying. The negatives are starting outweigh the positive here, in many ways. Traffic and homelessness further add to the general unease people feel after living here a short time.
I will not be surprised if see stats showing increased out-migration and population decline.
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:30 am 21
The problem is his uncle is an RE agent. He tried to convince me to buy a condo last week because his uncle said it was a good idea. At first I thought it was a joke but he was being serious. I asked why would anybody buy something at the peak of the market? If anything I would use the money and buy stocks right now because they are low.
How’s does one improve one’s wealth. Ah yes, buy low sell high not buy high and pray to God to sell higher.
Funny how some people will be denial as prices start to fall. He agreed that prices will fall in Surrey and Langley but not in North Van where his precious condo is located. It's all about location, location, location. The problem is if there are foreclosures all over the region everybody will be affected.
I'm rather calm these days. The bulls seem to be one's panicking. I enjoy watching the open houses signs popping up all over the place. It puts a tingle in my heart.
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:39 am 22
That could have someting to do with the fact that most condo's have electric heat. The only appliance using gas is the stove which costs almost nothing given most people don't use it very much. Most DT condo dwellers are single or childless couples that eat out a lot.
Comment by visio
Talking yesterday with a friend from high management at Terasen, they are complaining that a big chunk of downtown condos(didn’t really specified the percent but this thing is raising concerns in the company) have a low gas consuption bill, if almost close to 0
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:42 am 23
"Those of us ‘predicting a crash or correction [and] are bitter’ are actually upbeat, optimists of future affordability! We are also opportunists! Buy low, sell high. That’s what my grandfather taught me, and he died a wealthy man."
It would be great to see friends and family of mine afford property without going into such massive debt as today. But make no mistake that if prices drop significantly there will be pain for many and it's hard to be optimistic about that. The only advice I can give to "bitter" renters is to spend a bit more money to rent something nice and liveable; it will still be cheaper than owning almost guaranteed for the next few years.
MC_V, sounds like your grandfather didn't spend his money fast enough if he died wealthy, but maybe you meant wealthy in the holistic sense.
What they say: the last cheque you write before you die should bounce.
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:45 am 24
Patiently Waiting: Your comment about transit is spot on. This story which was also on page A3 of the Sun a couple days ago, gives you an idea.
I'm starting to find it harder and harder to get up in the morning, knowing I'm about to face another hellish commute into downtown.
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:47 am 25
My unit has a gas fireplace and gas stove. But we aren't metered individually it's part of the strata fees.
"Anyone who lashes out like this does not understand real estate, and should not have bought due to this lack of understanding."
Regardless if you don't think prices are going to keep going up then you are hoping that greedy speculators won't make an easy hundred grand on all twelve of the pre sales they bought with the intention of gouging and that means you hate Vancouver and are a communist and should move away and it also means you're a bitter renter and you're an asshat
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May 16th, 2008 at 11:25 am 26
Canada may be in a recession,investment bank analyst says:
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/…
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May 16th, 2008 at 11:27 am 27
Following the "Boom over, no bust predicted" link, I have to wonder: Is this what happens at the end of a real estate boom?
CMHC says prices of existing houses will rise this year by 9.3 per cent in B.C., 3.6 per cent in Alberta, 26.1 per cent in Saskatchewan, 13.5 per cent in Manitoba, 3.5 per cent in Ontario, 4.7 per cent in Quebec, four per cent in New Brunswick, five per cent in Nova Scotia, three per cent in Prince Edward Island and 10.5 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador
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May 16th, 2008 at 11:56 am 28
"Ah yes, buy low sell high not buy high and pray to God to sell higher."
Well said!!! Sums up what most recent RE buyers are feeling today…
"But make no mistake that if prices drop significantly there will be pain for many and it’s hard to be optimistic about that."
I hear you, but it will be bitter/sweet in a way as I warned people earnestly in the last few years to be careful, and maybe try to wait it out. As most of us 'Bears' (or future 'RE bulls' as I prefer) have experienced, I took a lot of flak for that position. It's going to be hard to be consoling in one breath, and on the next saying 'I told you so!'
"the last cheque you write before you die should bounce."
I agree totally
but he was too generous!
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May 16th, 2008 at 11:58 am 29
I'm really enjoying this sunny weather in beautiful downtown Vancouver. I think I'll have drinks and dinner on a patio and then go back to my condo and snuggle with my gf and think about how prices keep going up, up, up!
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May 16th, 2008 at 11:59 am 30
"Talking yesterday with a friend from high management at Terasen, they are complaining that a big chunk of downtown condos(didn’t really specified the percent but this thing is raising concerns in the company) have a low gas consuption bill, if almost close to 0"
Good. I hope they go out of business. Terasen is the single most predatory and unscrupulous corporate entity it has ever my total lack of pleasure to be unable to avoid dealing with.
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May 16th, 2008 at 12:13 pm 31
Good plan Rob, it's really unusually beautiful weather out there. I'd be careful about strapping your happiness to price gains or drops though, just enjoy the weather, its almost like living in San Diego or Miami! Gorgeous!
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May 16th, 2008 at 12:26 pm 32
That's kind of sad Rob. Maybe don't tell your girlfriend you're thinking about your condo and not her, poor thing.
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May 16th, 2008 at 12:28 pm 33
"I warned people earnestly in the last few years to be careful, and maybe try to wait it out."
Being a bear is often thankless. Telling people to be careful and ensuring they get arguments for and against a crash is probably the best tack. Truth is most people want you to agree with them because it makes them feel supported. There's a time and a place for "i told u so" and I'll be the first to tear a strip off anyone who says that nobody credible saw the crash coming. Of course I may be waiting a long time 'cause prices haven't dropped yet…
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May 16th, 2008 at 1:05 pm 34
"This isn’t about real estate prices, because I rarely heard them talk about buying."
It is about real estate somewhat, though. If it was possible for those people to buy a house they might have an incentive to stay. However, people who are in their mid-20s now have never seen prices low enough that they could even consider buying. If they combined two incomes, then they could afford a condo big enough for one person. They have already been priced out of the market, and you can't really blame them for not toughing it out.
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May 16th, 2008 at 1:21 pm 35
Rob A forgot to mention that his gf is his mom, who helps finance his 400sqft condo, since he alone can't on his wage as a server at one of the cafes downtown.
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May 16th, 2008 at 1:22 pm 36
I'm going back to my rented sub penthouse condo to snuggle up with my gf and think about how much money I have in the bank and how I might buy Rob A.s condo for my dog when his Mum forecloses.
The sunny day means my bank balance can only go up up up!
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May 16th, 2008 at 1:31 pm 37
I think I’ll have drinks and dinner on a patio and then go back to my condo and snuggle with my gf
Awww you home debtors get to eat dinner on patios AND have a girlfriend!?!
Your stupidity is mind boggling.
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May 16th, 2008 at 1:57 pm 38
There's no way anyone could be as dumb as Rob A. he must be kidding.
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May 16th, 2008 at 2:19 pm 39
bdk "There’s no way anyone could be as dumb as Rob A" Actually probably the majority are that dumb..who else would actually buy one of these, my wife and I rent one for exactly 1/3rd what we would pay if we bought with 25% down! It's so nice to know our whole commitment is 30 days any time of the year, if we wanted to move we could, as of now; in todays market they can't without leaving money on the "patio"!
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May 16th, 2008 at 2:21 pm 40
PS if you have friends over you have to take turns having drinks on the patio 90% of them can only have two people on them!
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May 16th, 2008 at 6:29 am 41
from one of the links:
Royal Bank of Canada’s announcement Wednesday it will take an $855-million charge in the second quarter of 2008…Following the announcement, RBC’s stock price jumped 2.5 per cent Wednesday to close at $49.82
Maybe we are in a new paradigm where fundamentals do not matter.
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May 16th, 2008 at 2:38 pm 42
Yeah, my friend has a condo downtown (that building on Homer with the blue-green trim), and his balcony gives me wicked vertigo, 'cuz it's probably about 6-8 square feet. No way could you put two lawn chairs there.
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May 16th, 2008 at 6:46 am 43
Despite what many self-loathers around here say, Vancouver does have some notoriety around the world.
Has it really come to this? Get it through your head, fella: not liking Vancouver, or liking it but just thinking it’s too expensive or overrated, is no more “self-loathing” than holding the same views about Trail, Fort McMurray, Toronto, or any other city.
Vancouver is not God’s chosen city, and there is no divine obligation to feel it is “the best place on earth”.
Bleah.
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May 16th, 2008 at 2:56 pm 44
my balconies are 15 sq ft each and fit two chairs on each.
When I have parties 3 smokers can fit, 2 sitting and 1 standing. The strata can kiss my ass if they want to fine me for allowing smokers to smoke outside.
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:06 pm 45
Terasen doesn't make much off apt buildings because everybody is heating each other. There aren't that many outside walls.
That said – they get $11/month for the privilege of bringing gas into your home. $132/year off every unit in a building probably makes them some money.
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:08 pm 46
vanguy, doesn't the floor to ceiling glass wall let out a lot of energy?
Those "green" millenium olympic buildings seem to have floor to ceiling glass windows and baseboard heat.
No geothermal?
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:13 pm 47
"I think I’ll have drinks and dinner on a patio and then go back to my condo…"
I'll have dinner and drinks on my deck with a view, snuggle with my GF, watch the stars come out, and then go inside my delightful rented house to watch prices go down, down, down!
All the time, I'm glad that I'm short the real estate market, and that my investments (funded by the sale of my last house) are increasing in value at the same time as my housing costs have been cut by two-thirds.
Sell now, or be priced in forever.
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:17 pm 48
On a per capita measurement, apartments are the most energy efficient form of living. If you consider that 5/6 surfaces (4 walls, floor, ceiling) are internal and have minimal deltaT then a single glass wall is certainly no problem.
i was just reading that woodwards article. Does this mean that the taxpayers of BC are now subsiding the 'specuvestors' of Woodwards?
Having said that, the DTES needs this sort of thing in conjunction with social housing. It's a f'effing mess down there and for too long nobody in government has given a shit.
I met someone the other day who bought a Woodwards place and plans to live in it. I was amazed…
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:30 pm 49
"The strata can kiss my ass if they want to fine me for allowing smokers to smoke outside." I agree! Cuban cigar and scotch /rocks every night winter summer for me!:-)
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May 16th, 2008 at 7:41 am 50
patriotz, fella,
I didn’t say the city was the best place on earth. I’m referring to the “grass is always greener” crowd that exists in this city. There is way too much self-love and self-hate. Its funny to watch. The people complaining non-stop about it and still living here are the biggest hypocrites of them all. RE is too expensive? Rent and STFU. Canada is a great country, Vancouver is a great city. Best on Earth? No. Backwater? No.
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:42 pm 51
awwww, come on you guys.. don't hate the player hate the game
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:44 pm 52
Check out the supply in coquitlam, the blogger posted this link on langley financial planning:
http://dailydose4u.wordpress.com/2008/05/16/pictu…
They should get some cafe's in coquitlam!
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:46 pm 53
Why limit yourself Rob, you can do both! Hate the player AND hate the game!
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May 16th, 2008 at 3:55 pm 54
Alpha_Bear: "priced in forever"
LOL. That's priceless.
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May 16th, 2008 at 4:24 pm 55
Alpha_Bear: hilarious.
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May 16th, 2008 at 4:28 pm 56
"and then go inside my delightful rented house to watch prices go down, down, down!"
The Restaurant at the End of the Universe. Tragic and poetic. I'd laugh at it all but I'd ruin the mood.
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May 16th, 2008 at 4:33 pm 57
I just wanted to clarify that Rob A, the low life, scum bag, waste of skin, blight to the human race, POS, is in no way related to me.
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:33 am 58
The ultra-cynic in me keeps thinking that calling somewhere “the best place on earth” is like pointing to a particular chair and calling it the comfiest deck chair on the Titanic.
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:48 am 59
Anybody else here know people leaving Vancouver? Over the last week I’ve found out about several people leaving.
Two Americans, a Kiwi, and a family of Australians are all returning home – they all like it here, but the economics don’t make sense to them, they’re work has finished or they’re homesick. Then there are the locals born here, one moving to Europe, one to the US (cash out tiny condo and get a house in the sun with a pool), and a few moving elsewhere in Canada.
This could be just an anomoly in my group of friends and coworkers, but I wonder if the already underwhelming population growth graph is about to take a downturn?
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:54 am 60
Paul B’s site didn’t quite hit 17,000 this week, but came close… up over 100 listings yesterday.
Does anyone know how reliable these stats are?
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:55 am 61
It appears Sydney isn’t getting the tourism it expected post Olympics….
http://www.smh.com.au/news/travel/sydney-not-top-travel-spot/2008/05/16/1210765174029.html
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:56 am 62
It’s a good thing our economy doesn’t rely on the forestry sector anymore, they seem to be suffering the death of a thousand cuts.
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:07 pm 63
An anecdote from my day:
A friend was telling me about a friend of his who owned in West Van, listed at $2.2M no sniffs for months, delisted and relisted at $1.6M… sold months later for even less than that.
The friend who told me bought in '97 a place for $300K, "alot of money for him" even back then. The place is double now. He thinks the markets on its way down. He'd sell and rent but he has 3 kids and rents on homes are just as stupid as he pays now, so why bother?
Another homeowner talked to me today about the number of listings they are seeing. They're now thinking of moving back to Van from the burbs, apparently location does matter, who knew?
People's opinion/view of RE is changing, for the better if you're me, the longer this continues… oh God, we'll all pass out from the Schadenfreude!
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:07 pm 64
"The Restaurant at the End of the Universe."
Whenever I see this reference to Douglas Adams' amazing trilogy (well, it once was a trilogy), I can't help but remember sitting on the outside deck of the "Cow Bay Cafe" in Prince Rupert, watching a spectacular sunset.
One of my "top ten" dining experiences.
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:23 pm 65
vansanity (great nick, BTW), yeah I'm in that boat. My personal situation is forcing a SFH purchase. Houses in this market are a little different. Renting a house for a decent price is not really feasible, compared to buying. Looking at the numbers, it seems like the havoc here is being caused by condos and houses near the core. A 3000 square foot house on sale in PoMo for $600-650K seems a little closer to sanity than any condo, or anything downtown. Plus, I plan to live there for at least a few years, so it's not a case of speculative investing.
I just hope I don't get burned. I wish I could wait a couple months, but alas, I can't.
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:31 pm 66
"awwww, come on you guys.. don’t hate the player hate the game"
And when things go sour dont pity the player, pity the game?
Or should I tell them if you dont like the heat, get out of the kitchen?
Tell them if you play hard, expect a concussion? Dont whine, ty?
Maybe that is why I hear about so many young vibrant intelligent couples leaving Vancouver, B.C. They found greener pastures elsewhere.
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:51 pm 67
In the spirit of a picture being worth 1000 words, I took Paul Boenisch's graph of listings, and included a data point with yesterday's number, halfway to May (since we're half way through the month), just to see what it would look like.
Check it out!
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:53 pm 68
Doh, just realized that's wrong…gonna rework it. I thought that was a little too insane!!!
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May 16th, 2008 at 6:01 pm 69
Ok, here it is again, accurate this time!
GVRD listings
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May 16th, 2008 at 6:29 pm 70
The Zen of Power washing:
spent the afternoon power washing my 600 sq.
YT patio (rental suite, while planning on checking out the cafe across the street. shouldn't be too crowded as all the local home owners really can't afford to eat out anymore….
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May 16th, 2008 at 7:28 pm 71
bears and bulls all seem a bit cranky right now. not suprised, the market appears likely to stagnate for quite some time, meaning either crappy cash flow or writing a rent cheque every month long term. not very pleasant no matter how it's spun. the bbc world thing is true, vancouver is always featured regardless of the broadcast destination. usually the forecast if for rain though, ha ha.
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May 16th, 2008 at 7:28 pm 72
Ah it *is* a lovely night.
I think I'll spend it hanging at English bay, then f**ing my bf on the roof of our apartment, which has unparalleled views of the ocean an mountains.
Hey Rob A, we don't hate the player or the game. Soon the "players" will be losers and the game will be rigged in our favour!
Oh and krrsh I imagine you'll want to watch… go ahead. God knows I'd f**ked your mom often enough. I feel like I owe you! I guess I'd be your dad if the dog didn't beat me up the stairs at Spectrum!
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May 16th, 2008 at 7:45 pm 73
Alpha – Bear
Sold my incredibly overpriced house last fall (8 bidders) in another equally expensive jurisdiction – hint they're hockey team hasn't made the playoffs for 3 years. Had to b/c I was moving here. I am presently investing that money (v conservative) and using 40% of the yield to RENT a house on a nice street in Kerrisdale. Lots on this street are 66 by 130-140. Lots are worth $1.75mm and new homes sell for high $3's. Would cost me approx $13m a month to finance this place or about 2.5x what I'm paying.
I too am sitting on my large deck as the kids run around the expansive back garden (just cut by the gardener provided by my landlord – not kidding).
In Toronto at a dinner party you know what every person does within 15 minutes of arriving … in Vancouver you know where they live and how much there house is worth!
I may be the closest you ever get to someone who's won the lottery.
Enjoy your long weekend
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:18 pm 74
I could really do without having Rennie show up in all sorts of media articles as our resident expert in urban living, local economics, neighbourhood revitalization, social housing, etc.
Given the inventory, it is odd that prices have not started to plummet yet…..
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:07 pm 75
Clarke, don't fret… how often do you get a quote like this "Another thing we’ve seen lately that is a change: more price reductions per day than sales. Ouch!" from Rob, and in May of all months?
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:36 pm 76
Strata and others,
Rob A has entered into the market on right time, his monthly is not expensive than you.even some one new in case have nothing to worry like the way left over priced out tenents have to.
Glad you guys still glued to your chairs while the showman is winding up his set.
mail4 Sonika,
And what would be the view of unparalleled of the ocean and mountains?.
GOATS ASS !(4bf)
CHEER UP FRIENDS
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:56 pm 77
If you want to get a picture of the market, just ask the experts. That would be the people selling 'HUGE' 651 sq ft condos downtown. Yes, it is true that the HOUSING MARKET IS SLOWING, but PRICES ARE STILL RISING and WE ARE NOT IN A STATE OF PANIC. Its Different here. We have designer paint and you could turn the closet into a bedroom. HOt Market!
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rfs/683626282.h…
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:20 pm 78
good job flip
some more facts….
An immigrant must reside in canada for more than 1099 days to get citizen ship.
if you do not return with in the time period while holding PR card you must apply again for immigration.
process takes atleast
1 year for spouse
3-7 year for family class
3 year for indipendents
3 year for bussiness class.
In a bussiness category a person must establish bussiness worth more than $200,000 to onward and must run it for atleast three year to get pr status.
VIP sponsership must submit $500,000 per person.
All application are besed on around $2600 to $5000 almost $1100 landing fee.
sponsership agreement is from one to ten year means immigrant can not apply for welfare from different categories from one to ten years of their residency.
Must be residing for three month before you obtain care card.
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:33 pm 79
Distraction, nice… I wonder why he's Selling his place for $4k less after no takers last month.
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May 16th, 2008 at 10:42 pm 80
"We have designer paint and you could turn the closet into a bedroom."
I've actually been to open houses where during the reno they turned closets into "dens" and advertised them as 1 bedroom + den. In one case, the "den" was 3 foot wide nook in the bedroom. And there was less than 2 feet of space between the closet and the foot of the bed.
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May 16th, 2008 at 11:05 pm 81
But make no mistake that if prices drop significantly there will be pain for many and it’s hard to be optimistic about that.
What pain and for whom? Seriously.
Market price for my first house dropped 20% after I bought it. So what? I bought the house at a price I could afford. Same house, same payments.
Likewise those buying now. Same house, same payments. They thought the house was worth it at the purchase price, so what pain?
Real estate should only be purchased for value of use, not any expectation of future price relative to purchase price.
Anyone who buys a property with the expectation that the market price will be at a particular level at any given time in the future is a speculator, whether they live in it or not. And I have no sympathy for speculators.
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:03 pm 82
distraction: Thanks for posting that link. That totally made my day. Funny thing is, that first picture looks pretty much exactly like the view I see from the roof of my work building near Homer and Smithe. Cranes *everywhere*, and still open house signs in front of the places finished last summer (eg. that place at Mainland and Smithe).
I went and saw one of those places. Kinda nice, and it would be ultra-convenient for me to be a block away from work, but not for $800K. They’ve gotta be kidding!!!
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May 16th, 2008 at 5:50 pm 83
“they only profiled four cities: NYC, Miami, LA and… Vancouver.”
They only do this for one reason, to give a sample of the weather in all 4 relative corners of the USA and Canada. They would have used Seattle but then Canadians would feel left out. Look at the map and you can see what’s obvious in the decision to use those 4 places.
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May 17th, 2008 at 2:09 am 84
Many young singles and couples are screwed regardless. They were doomed the day they signed a 40 year $500K mortgage for a small condo, or similar stupidity. If anything, a market crash will release them in a weird way. There will be such a tidal wave of bankruptcies that they can join in without the stigma. Then they can go rent something worth living in.
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May 17th, 2008 at 4:44 am 85
PW:
Bankruptcy isn't as clean as that. My parents went bankrupt because of some bad real estate decisions back in the '70. It took almost 15 years for them to come back out, and those were hard times for the family.
Those young couple made a bad decision but I suspect they made it for the "right" reasons. They're going to get a haircut, and it's going to be painful, and it will affect their families badly.
Bears are often accused of "wanting the market to crash" but I think the reality is more that we've seen the data and we've known what is coming for a long time.
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May 17th, 2008 at 5:55 am 86
What if you have two passeports?(not hard to obtain in a corrupt country) You land in Canada with one passeport, get your stamp, then leave Canada with the second one. Do the officers at the customs check every single name on their data base?
When I had to provide my list of travels outside of Canada, I always wondered how Immigration Canada could know I wasn't lying…
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May 16th, 2008 at 9:59 pm 87
Bit about Canadian immigration does have some inaccuracies, for instance they were talking about people who never visited Canada but were permanent residents non the less. Thats impossible: residency is granted only upon landing in Canada, and any landed immigrant must spend minimum two years out of five to maintain residency, unless they work for a Canadian company abroad, in which case they still have to pay Canadian taxes. If permanent residency is granted to an investor, then that takes a bigger investment then just a condo, and creation of jobs for Canadians. In any case whether it is independent immigration category, or business immigration, there are taxes collected by Canadian government.
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May 17th, 2008 at 6:33 am 88
they check for the stamp of your arrival date in canada for that you must show the passport you have used to get in here and your PR CARD.if you travling to some other country you must get valid visa through consulates office on the same passport with landing date.
Do not confuse your self- the story in article does not have any head or feet, what it might be based on "An immigrant as Canadian Citizen and passport holder can stay out of country"
anybody who stay longer than six month of their trip they must obtain permision from the police station or home ministry of that country, if you working for some company you must file tax return otherwise just chill out.
"Too common for any other country almost same procedures".
When people return back to canada- Custom Officer must check all the valid document what led to your deley, if you do not have sufficent documents to support your return,the custom officers have the authority to deny your right to return if you were an immigrant if you are genuine resident you may get free ride to see the boss in court.
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May 17th, 2008 at 7:02 am 89
This article on immigration may be correct in one respect: that it is relatively easy to obtain Canadian permanent residency. It fails to mention however that Canadian immigration policy has emphasis on professional and business immigration, and compares favorably for instance, to the US immigration policy. While US immigration policy encourages illegal immigration and is geared towards bringing cheap manual labor into the country, thus driving down low end wages, and increasing the income gaps, the Canadian policy of bringing in immigrants with a high level of education puts pressure on the wages at the high end, thus creating more homogeneous society, and offers better opportunities for the new immigrants to integrate into the society.
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May 17th, 2008 at 7:02 am 90
Bears are often accused of “wanting the market to crash”
Guilty as charged.
The value of any asset is equal to the present value of its net future income (net rent in the case of RE). The value of a house is independent of the market price.
The people buying now have committed 500K of future employment income (net present value) for a condo worth 250K or less. Regardless of the future market price.
What I'm saying in more formal terms is what we have said above – if you paid 500K for a condo which is only worth 250K, the only way that you can be rescued is by selling to a greater fool.
The sooner the market crashes, the fewer people will be throwing their money away. What we have now reached is the point where there are no such fools left.
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May 17th, 2008 at 7:14 am 91
"I think the reality is more that we’ve seen the data and we’ve known what is coming for a long time".
The end to the mortgage term,happy retirement,no more fear of becoming tenent,a gift for our childrens,permanent accomodation for the needy fellas.
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May 17th, 2008 at 8:15 am 92
"Anyone who buys a property with the expectation that the market price will be at a particular level at any given time in the future is a speculator, whether they live in it or not. And I have no sympathy for speculators."
I know some couples who bought in the past few years thinking they could afford it as you did. I am sure some of these couples will have misjudged their budgets or will go through job loss or divorce. They will now go bankrupt instead of something less painful. Sure they shouldn't have bought in the first place but it still sucks, especially if their intentions were not openly greedy.
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May 17th, 2008 at 9:20 am 93
"I am sure some of these couples will have misjudged their budgets or will go through job loss or divorce"
This can happen otherway around if you don't buy,my bearish wife and i know lots of couples they have to buy house or appartment to settle up otherwise broke up.
Even my wife does not support to pay bills or monthly payments but some time i can hear her talking to her friends proudly telling them how many properties we own"hooray! honey what about paying some bills or mortgage?"
Most recent survey shows single womens got edge over mens in buying house or appartment that could be because of bearish husbands- even womens got more rights in dispute btw husband and wife that's why mens are trailing.
Just had receive a call from constable to explain him the behaviour of a decent husband next door who got traped in the keg last night.
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May 17th, 2008 at 10:06 am 94
I know some couples who bought in the past few years thinking they could afford it as you did.
The way to protect yourself from market or life contingencies when buying a house is not to take on mortgage payments greater than what you can rent out the house for. It's that simple.
If people take on more than that, they are gambling against future contingencies on their own incomes and have no right to complain if their bets go bad.
I will also note that someone who declares bankruptcy to get out of an underwater mortgage is coming out ahead (at the expense of his creditors of course) in financial terms compared to someone who stays put and pays, so I don't see why anyone should feel sorry for him.
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May 17th, 2008 at 10:17 am 95
"Just had receive a call from constable to explain him the behaviour of a decent husband next door who got traped in the keg last night."
HA HA, last night six police cars stopped in front of my place and hauled off some shirtless drunk dude. Red and blue lights coming through my window. NICE. Maybe I live in a COPS neighbourhood. Good thing I rent, so I can easily move on if I wish…unlike the nice South African couple who just bought across the lane.
Anyhow, I don't want to hear any bears feeling guilty about the crash. If you want to point a finger of blame at who is responsible for all the upcoming pain, look for the guy in the gold Bentley.
http://tinyurl.com/4dp8nv
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May 17th, 2008 at 10:22 am 96
I will also note that someone who declares bankruptcy to get out of an underwater mortgage is coming out ahead (at the expense of his creditors of course) in financial terms compared to someone who stays put and pays
Would you rent out your property to someone with a bankruptcy on their credit report? I wouldn't nor would most other landlords. Alot of these future FB's will living with mom and dad or couch surfing when it all comes crashing down. So not exactly a painless decision. However I would feel absolutely no sympathy for any FB affected by the crash, quite the opposite.
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May 17th, 2008 at 10:47 am 97
Anyone have any insite into this one:
http://tinyurl.com/5533vp
A developer built 19, million dollar homes out in Shuswap -the lot was zoned for commercial – and after he was done building, the city came to him and told him he needed to rezone. When he went to rezone – they turned him down.
He sz that he can still sell the houses – but is not sure how long people who buy the houses would be able to live in them.
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May 17th, 2008 at 11:06 am 98
re: insight
some developers are amazingly stupid and small town politics can be brutal….
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May 17th, 2008 at 11:24 am 99
Re PW's link to the "Just who's buying Vancouver's zillion-dollar condos?" story.
Augh…I'm getting a little sick of hearing about this Bob Rennie guy. It sounds like even the author of the article is drinking the Koolaid.
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May 17th, 2008 at 11:27 am 100
Would you rent out your property to someone with a bankruptcy on their credit report?
Landlords are going to have to rent to them, because there won't be anyone else to rent to.
Think about it.
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May 17th, 2008 at 11:36 am 101
Nah, I'm sure there will be lots of drug dealers and organized crime bosses here that will take a huge loss on their money laundering operations, but definitely won't have to declare bankruptcy.
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May 17th, 2008 at 12:41 pm 102
As recently as a couple weeks ago a new condo development sold out in hours.
Left me somewhat perplexed, as listings are piling up at record levels, and so I can’t help but wonder if the new units are selling at a far too low pricing or are the existing languishing listings priced too high?
Or:
Are sales tactics of the marketers’ no match for the regular realtors?
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May 17th, 2008 at 1:42 pm 103
Wow, total REBGV listings hit 16,999 yesterday, according to this.
One more listing anyone?
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May 17th, 2008 at 1:55 pm 104
..on bulls, bears and bubbles
http://tinyurl.com/5dudpz
interesting read from WSJ
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May 17th, 2008 at 1:55 pm 105
Good lord, that's a silly article.
And I thought the author's name was familiar. My friend's ex is partners (professional partners) with him. It's another bullshit article written by a realtor. Quelle surprise.
If I hear that rich investor bullshit one more time I'm going to lose it. Rich Russians? BUllshit. Bullshit bullshit bullshit.
Rich people don't get rich be being stupid. When the whole of the American market is collapsing who the hell would buy a zillion dollar condo in Vancouver when you could buy a good size house in Napa, for instance.
Sooner or later the free market takes over, which is exactly what we're seeing with the rising inventory. Either the market gets back in line with fundamentals or the lower and middle class leave, and the wealthy have to pour their own damn coffee.
As Patriotz said, think about it.
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May 17th, 2008 at 1:59 pm 106
rich immigrants will save our bacon?
don't think so
most of the buying is by locals with a few Oilbertans thrown in …in a downturn there will be very few to step up and carry the load.
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May 17th, 2008 at 2:01 pm 107
anecdotal "came back from a beautiful day at the beach, met a couple in the elevator in my building, was an open house and it appears they bought. Guy (late 40's) asked how I liked the building, after the usual chit/chat he said he was really worried that he was going to regret it (knew something about the bubble talk I presume), his wife glared at him and said if we don't buy we are going to be left in the dust. I muttered yeh is a dicey time to be buying, he kinda blanched and she glared at me!
Wonder how many divorces this bubble is going to cause?
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May 17th, 2008 at 2:18 pm 108
Is there a graph comparing inventory and sales over a few years? I like to have someting uplifting to put on my wall. That would be for Vancouver area, nvan, westvan, coquitlam surrey, squamish, coal harbour. The beauty of seeing the lines side by side and the widening gaps.
Beat that picasso!
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May 17th, 2008 at 2:24 pm 109
Augh…I’m getting a little sick of hearing about this Bob Rennie guy. It sounds like even the author of the article is drinking the Koolaid.
Are you kidding? Sounds like he was swimming laps in it before he drank the pool dry. That article was utterly nauseating.
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May 17th, 2008 at 3:53 pm 110
Thanks for the mid-month update on pauls inventory graph umdesch – Listings are taking off like crazy! I'm seeing tons of open houses out there today, but funny I've got no urge to go look at them. Anyone else been to any? Are they busy? I suppose if sales keep dropping off they could always blame the problem on good weather, back out to the sun with me!
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May 17th, 2008 at 4:10 pm 111
"The way to protect yourself from market or life contingencies when buying a house is not to take on mortgage payments greater than what you can rent out the house for. It’s that simple."
True. I think the word to use for the current situation is "tragedy".
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May 17th, 2008 at 4:44 pm 112
" Wonder how many divorces this bubble is going to cause?"
I am willing to bet there will be an inverse correlation between devorce rates and price appreciation.
Divorce will be a quick and easy face saving strategy, heck some of the couples may even get back together after the dust settles. (if the sex was good)
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May 17th, 2008 at 4:57 pm 113
patriotz says:
"Anyone who buys a property with the expectation that the market price will be at a particular level at any given time in the future is a speculator, whether they live in it or not. And I have no sympathy for speculators."
What about someone who sells a property with the expectation that the market will go down? Also a speculator? Maybe, but a prudent one.
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May 17th, 2008 at 5:36 pm 114
As recently as a couple weeks ago a new condo development sold out in hours.
Well it didn't actually. What sold out was options to purchase, not the property itself.
The presale market and the real market are two different things.
There seems to be a logical disconnect between the two, but what else is new.
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May 17th, 2008 at 7:22 pm 115
What sold out was options to purchase, not the property itself.
which may be reneged on when the going gets tough.
i would expect "walkaways" will be fairly common.
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May 17th, 2008 at 9:22 pm 116
That article on Bob Rennie was so funny! Oh God, if foreign investors are that dumb, how did they ever make their fortunes???
Anyway, I, like many of you can just see it all happening before it does. It's like Nostradamus without the opiates.
Keep buying bulls!! Buy and build some more!!!
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May 17th, 2008 at 2:37 pm 117
[...] May 2008 · No Comments Yes, Vancouver is a beautiful city. This from ‘distraction’ at Vancouver Condo Info My 16th, 2008 8:20am [...]
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May 17th, 2008 at 2:46 pm 118
[...] are leaving Vancouver because “the economics don’t make sense to them”. This from Digi at Vancouver Condo Info May 16th, 2008 at 8:48am [...]
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May 18th, 2008 at 1:27 am 119
"i would expect 'walkaways' will be fairly common."
I think many will find that "walkaways" are much more difficult when prices are falling and they read the fine print to find out what the contract actually stipulates.
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May 18th, 2008 at 5:25 am 120
If the market price of the condo falls below the pre-sale price it will be impossible for the buyer to obtain financing. I'm not a lawyer, but I think this will make it difficult for the seller to pursue any damages from the buyer, apart from keeping the deposit, due to force majeure. If anyone out there is more informed on this let us know your take.
Note that the shenanigans in Florida (reported in NYT) were about attempts by the buyers to get their deposits back due to alleged deficiencies on the part of the seller.
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May 18th, 2008 at 7:35 am 121
-A-
This is something I was thinking about a while back. The list of inventory in Vancouver only includes actual completed places. Does anyone have any information on how the assignments market is faring currently? Are there a lot of people desperately trying to ditch assignments? Are new projects getting scrubbed for lack of pre-sales?
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May 18th, 2008 at 4:19 pm 122
"Canadian immigration policy has emphasis on professional and business immigration,"
What a load of bollocks. But I suspect most Canadians share this misconception.
The fact is that only 18% of immigrants are skilled immigrants. Every single one of the others is a family member. That's why more than half of immigrants live below the poverty line, and it's why national median income has been flat for years.
And what's more, immigration doesn't even improve our demographic profile. Why? Because the average age of an immigrant is HIGHER than that of the average Canadian.
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May 18th, 2008 at 5:32 pm 123
Part of the lack of success of these family member immigrants is their poor English skills, if they speak English at all (or French). This is not good for the economy or for those immigrants. Why isn't learning an official language required?
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May 18th, 2008 at 6:58 pm 124
Patiently Waiting "Why isn’t learning an official language required?" It is for the first "primary applicants" I believe, but under the "family class immigration" which the primary applicant then uses to get aged or non skilled close relatives into Canada the language criteria is no longer required for compassionate reasons. (Age and/or education making it virtually impossible to learn eng/french). There would be tremendous political fallout if immigration were to "break up families". As far as I know there is not one political party in Canada that would do this. Besides health care is totally subsidized for the relatives by Canada especially if they are under the minimum income. Canada is a soft touch and we will likely see our entire health care system collapse within a decade. Side note(My wife is an immigrant, highly skilled and fluent in English, but her relatives have no desire to come here being highly success full in their original country which is where we met when I lived there).
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May 18th, 2008 at 7:32 pm 125
OKAY, here is the BIG message. Vancouver real estate price will continue going up.
The reasons are here:
1. Vancouver is open up straight to Asia. China and India people in this century will be making the big big money. However, people who live in Vancouver locally will continue to wonder why they have so much money. Well, they will have more and more money!! and they are not afraid of buying!!
2. Commodity price all over the world. "Everything" is going to cost more in this age. "Everything", but money (currency). Drastically, the cost of building the same building will cost much higher. You have China having crisis with the earth quake. They are going to buy extra extra resource with whatever it costs. It will beat up the commodity price even more.
US dollar weakness. The weakness is going to drive up the commodity even further.
3. The resource in Canada. Canada, itself, has a very low population, big land and lots of nature resources. Canada has a huge potential, and a lot of people in the world knows that. What do you think just the people in India and China are going to think?
I have pointed out a few things that I hope you are going to really think about clearly. Be open minded, the globe is a lot bigger and changing a lot faster now. Don't trap yourself and being stubborn. Do what you can still and be wise.
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May 18th, 2008 at 8:13 pm 126
"A developer built 19, million dollar homes out in Shuswap -the lot was zoned for commercial"
This is the same developer that wanted to build 219 townhouses beside the salmon spawning area of Adams River on the Shuswap and it was haulted 6 / 0. I think he thought he could do anything he wanted and could bully the district authority. He was pre-selling those before he had CSRD approval.
As for the commercial area you ask about, my friend has a home directly beside the 19 houses. The project, Carmel Cove, has had pre-sales and has been under construction for several years now. I have heard they are so close together they cannot be passed because of the fire codes. It was zoned commercial as a campground RV property to my knowledge and he developed without making any proposals to the district. It is a rural area with limited fire protection. I understand that is one of the main problems as well as the zoning and his attitude towards local populus and district authorities alike.
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May 18th, 2008 at 8:21 pm 127
Jun, why do most new immigrants moving to Canada choose Toronto over Vancouver? Is it more desirable?
Landcor says most buyers in BC are from BC – the vast majority of buyers from outside BC are represented by Albertan buyers, which make up less than 5% of buyers.
If the people buying were not over-extended locals, but instead super-rich people for whom money is no object, why are the majority of them opting for new 40 year mortgages?
Just trying to keep an open mind and question assumptions.
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May 18th, 2008 at 8:24 pm 128
Strataman, however elderly family immigrants do play an economic role by taking care of children while the parents are working (don't have to rely on our horrible daycare system). So they are contributors to the economy and don't really need to speak English to do so, and their other family members do pay taxes that go towards the health system.
What I'm more concerned about is all the young adults I meet these days who can't speak English at all. I assume they are family immigrants because they certainly didn't get in on their language skills. They are basically stuck in jobs within their ethnic community that probably pay minimum wage. Meanwhile, the labour shortage continues.
jun, if only immigrants were so successful as you say. Nope, many are going down in the crash because they are naive about the true value of our real estate.
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May 18th, 2008 at 8:37 pm 129
Ted, I am not sure where you get the information new immigrants choose Toronto over Vancouver when moving to Canada. Also, what kind of immigrants usually prefer Toronto over Vancouver (age, wealth and etc…)
"Most buyers in BC are from BC." Does that include immigrants? Most of the buyers do live in Canada. What exactly is the standard of "buyers in BC from BC."
Still, the point has nothing to do with my point of a lot of buyers being Asians and will be more in the future. I am making the prediction of the future, now to 10 years.
I am also pointing out what I believe the market (Vancouver and globally) will be like. There are a lot more variables and global environment factors that will influence the future of Vancouver real estate market.
Still, I believe the price will go up. It will be a good commodity against inflation as well.
Thank you,
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May 18th, 2008 at 8:45 pm 130
Does anybody here remember which one of these dogs?
tqn, newflash, realitycheck, aaron, said there would never be a crash in Vancouver because unlike Vegas etc, inventory would never reach 17,000?
Also, I note CMHC and the usual RE pimps are still predicting single digit price appreciation for 2008 and 2009 for the Calgary area, although prices are already down double digit in Calgary and Edmonton.
If any of the dogs from the Chipman kennel are here maybe they can explain.
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May 18th, 2008 at 9:17 pm 131
jun = latest krissh clone.
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May 18th, 2008 at 9:27 pm 132
jun; "I am also pointing out what I believe the market (Vancouver and globally) will be like" jun I too believe in the globalization of the world economies, however the strange thing is there are no substantial international or for that matter even national corporations based in Vancouver. (By substantial I mean employ a couple of thousand persons around the world). As far as I can see there is no economy other then real estate here, and that particular economy does not contribute to a stable community. Head offices located elsewhere (including Toronto that has several)do not pay taxes here for hospitals schools, roads etc. Sure a few investors may pay some property taxes, but for all the hoopla about rich investors contributing to the economy you would think there would be some new hospitals being built in Vancouver (NOT Surrey which is apparently NOT the destination of rich investors).
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May 18th, 2008 at 9:28 pm 133
Jun,
Very Well Said.
Ted,
you are confused by the landcor statement,what landcore is trying to say "the sales that happen in bc- The majority from Alberta, followed by the US.
What jun is trying to say most people who will countinue to keep the habit as back bone of Vancouver Real estate they are from bc in your (ted)sense they should be immigrant first,Jun is targeting indian and chinese genration you are targeting immigrant,I can combined all three-you,jun,and landcore.
"Investor/Buyers from with in provinces of Canada(migration)Usa,and overseas(International)have been buying in Vancouver and they will countinue keep on buying in decades to come,
Note:You guys are familiar with above statement.
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May 18th, 2008 at 9:40 pm 134
Krissh "Very Well Said."
Nice try!
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May 18th, 2008 at 9:43 pm 135
"As far as I can see there is no economy other then real estate here"
what about the underground economy? pretty sizable, isn't it?
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May 18th, 2008 at 9:53 pm 136
"what about the underground economy" Yep and it would make my day if they were legalized and paid taxes! Then we would have a real economy!
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May 18th, 2008 at 10:07 pm 137
Really very sorry i have missed to include the name of friends from EUROPE/UK.
"EUROPEANS and BRITISH have been buying in VANCOUVER and they are expending to east vancouver along with CAMBIE to COMMERCIAL drive"
Multicultural faces has been changed on large scale on east side lots of Torontorians,Albertans,and Europeans along with British friends are taking possession on eastside,It's getting hot infront of brand new bus stops and bluelines are displaying signs that bus is full wait for next,I have notice while parking my car 10 meter ahead of bus stop,there could be a sign on bus in future "no body can get off"
"THERE IS NO DOWNTURN PLEASE"
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May 19th, 2008 at 12:44 am 138
What?
“EUROPEANS and BRITISH have been buying in VANCOUVER and they are expending to east vancouver along with CAMBIE to COMMERCIAL drive”
Multicultural faces has been changed on large scale on east side
Are the British causing Little Italy to become more multi cultural?
When did Cambie to Commercial Drive become a sub area to east vancouver?
Krissh why are you posting under anonymous?
Do you want readers to think there's another airheaded incoherent and irrelevant retarded bull out there?
Why is your Mums condo for sale if you think the market is going to go up so much?
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May 19th, 2008 at 1:51 am 139
Ted, I am not sure where you get the information new immigrants choose Toronto over Vancouver when moving to Canada.
How about Statistics Canada, Bozo:
http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/91-209-XIE/…
Toronto consistently get over twice as many immigrants as Vancouver. Look at page 16.
You know it's the endgame when the bulls move from non-quantitative arguments to just lying. Go try out your BS on the suckers you're trying to sell your flip to, not us.
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May 19th, 2008 at 10:20 am 140
Patriotz,
your link is nothing new to talk about- argument of Toronto vs Vancouver has been beaten hundred times in the past thanks to be ignorent.
Vancouver got an edge over Toronto for the following reason…..
1.LIMTED LAND MASS in Vancouver while Toronto is largest city of Canada.
2.BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONDITION in Vancouver while Toronto is snow shoveling city.
3.UNEMPLOYEMENT RATES are lower than Toronto.
4.STRONG ECONOMY IN B.C. while ONTARIO is vulnerable from the eco.dtr.of USA.
5.MIGRATION IS TOWARDS VANCOUVER from other provinces include Toronto,Ontario not from Vancouver to other cities and provinces.
6.VANCOUVER is no.1 livable city while Toronto is at 5.
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May 19th, 2008 at 10:38 am 141
Krissh/SATV/anonymous/whomever – I know you enjoy trolling here and getting pointed retorts from the regulars, but in all seriousness they're right when they say you don't make any sense.
It's not your grammar and sentences (which you intentionally mangle to some extent) – you just have difficulty clearly organizing your thoughts to make a point. It makes you seem unintelligent and so nobody bothers to read what you have to say. One can only assume that you're not able to come up with your own considered opinions and so you are just parroting the bull canon.
Do yourself (and us) a favor and try to think through what you want to say before to type a comment. People here are obviously happy to debate facts in a rational way but they (and I) just disregard what you have to say since we can't understand it.
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May 19th, 2008 at 10:52 am 142
too obvious to be non sense that bulls with -5 on bear blogs does not make any sense -they have only one achievement" so far has not been proven wrong in the history of blogs"
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May 19th, 2008 at 10:55 am 143
it is with the greatest of pleasure that i can hit "thumbs down" on a variety of posts that come from the same troll…. excellent tool!
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May 19th, 2008 at 11:22 am 144
Blueskies,
Even i was wondering last week as the game is over what should be the use of this site for future,first name come to my mind was an idea of making chat room out of this, while i was thinking on more detail the pope has given this site a new definition, now i have come to know that bulls or bears are not making any sense because this site has turned to replace the popular tv series called..
"DOG EAT DOG"
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May 19th, 2008 at 11:57 am 145
"Cease selling that dream, and that’s an order" article regarding Bear Mountain Developers.
http://web.bcnewsgroup.com/portals-code/list.cgi?…
Here's an interesting excerpt:
"“I wouldn’t call it rare,” said Ken Fraser, executive director of investigative services with the Commission, of the order. “If you look at our website, we’ve had a number of orders.” In the past two years, 17 orders have been handed down for a number of issues with different developments.
“If we find out a material change has occurred in financing, or corporate structure, and we haven’t be advised, we would issue a cease and desist order to make sure the public was protected,” Fraser told BE.
“Our primary purpose is to ensure the public is aware or given every opportunity about the property prior to entering a purchase agreement.”
“Our experience,” he added, “ has been that people get caught up in buying a condo, or property, especially first time buyers.
They tend to rush into things"
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May 19th, 2008 at 11:58 am 146
Specuvestors losing their shirts renting at a massive loss…in Montreal.
Yes, there is a housing bubble in Eastern Canada too.
http://tinyurl.com/68goms
I found this on Ben Jones' The Housing Bubble Blog:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=4531
"The Staleys' problem is that the monthly cost of the mortgage and taxes on the two rental properties currently exceeds the rent by a fairly hefty sum. They collect $3,367 each month and owe $5,600 to the bank."
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May 19th, 2008 at 12:09 pm 147
And for those who think the economy isn't going downhill…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7408620.stm
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May 19th, 2008 at 12:48 pm 148
One last point and a big point I would like to point out repeatedly. Commodity price VS Currency inflation!!!! That is a big driving force. The cost of nature resources and energy will never go down, yet money can be printed at a much faster speed. That is the big picture guys!!!
You have to look at a reasonable long term. Think in your mind and look around.
There is nothing more obvious. Don't let this so called "expensive" real estate price in Vancouver fool you. Of course, where you buy that opens up to the international market is hugely important. Downtown, for example, is one of the best bet you can have.
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May 19th, 2008 at 12:51 pm 149
For read,
It has nothing to do with the economy here in BC or even in Canada. It's the growth of other places that drives up the consumption of what requires to build anything. If another 5% of people in China can afford to have two meal in a day, food prices is going up right away.
It's happening. The wealth is shifting and being generated by a different side of the world.
AND YOU WILL BE AFFECTED!
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May 19th, 2008 at 1:04 pm 150
first name come to my mind was an idea of making chat room out of this
a conversation would imply intellectual heft on both sides which unfortunately excludes you from the equation….
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May 19th, 2008 at 1:24 pm 151
err, jun
if you actually READ the soros article, you'll see that he is talking about exactly that – drop offs in commodities demand from other countries and a collapse in the commodities market globally. disagree with him if you wish, but at least read the article before spouting more crap.
oh and if the wealth is shifting to the other side of the world – which it may well be – why would all those newly weathly folk want to move here then?
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May 19th, 2008 at 1:50 pm 152
So very well keep your paper money then. I am not suggesting to buy real estate, but buy other thing such as gold, sugar, oil and etc…
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May 19th, 2008 at 2:16 pm 153
"why would all those newly weathly folk want to move here then?"
For quality of life.
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May 19th, 2008 at 2:31 pm 154
Anonymous Says: +0
May 19th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
“why would all those newly weathly folk want to move here then?”
For quality of life.
So why aren't we all moving to Bali then? If the eastern economies are going to move all the wealth there instead of here (as Jun suggests), then health care, job prospects, etc will no doubt be better there, no?
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May 19th, 2008 at 2:39 pm 155
Jun, your argument makes sense if stretched out to an extremely long timeline. I can guarantee that bread will be more expensive in 100 years, but I'm not rushing out to the bakery to stock up and get rich.
You don't even have to be that old or experienced to have lived through an economic downturn in Vancouver – housing is a market which like all other markets rises and falls. You can't time the top or bottom of the market, but you can compare housing cost to rental value. Rents are what people are willing and able to pay for housing, its 'actual value' without the distortion of investment manias.
One of your key arguments seems to be that there are wealthy people in the world, and this will keep our market from crashing, but why would a multi-millionaire want to buy any off the thousands of 600 sq foot condos downtown? There will always be a difference between the high-end housing market and the 'normal' market.
Rich people don't need mortgages, so what do you think would happen here if we did away with lending?
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May 19th, 2008 at 2:48 pm 156
It is absolutely true. All the rich jet set are moving here, specifically in the Dundas and Victoria Drive area, and they are all interested in buying 600sft leaky condos.
And it is also true they prefer a 4o year mortgage to encourage some of their wives to take jobs at Tim Horton’s
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May 19th, 2008 at 3:19 pm 157
Read on,
I don't think country other than Canada and United Kingdom provide health care,welfare,and childCare plus free education till grade 12.
For your point towards bali I don't think any bear can go buy there in fear of another blast on threat.
Yeah people can move to any country through their networks that's mean population in most livable cities and world class cities countinue to increase but those cities have nothing to cut from vancouver. so even if we follow your recomendation still there is no risk of downturn in Vancouver,Vancouver will pick it's share year over year.
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May 19th, 2008 at 3:43 pm 158
"I don’t think country other than Canada and United Kingdom provide health care,welfare,and childCare plus free education till grade 12."
why would the rich immigrants care about welfare? they can just buy and sell leaky condos to make a living.
free childcare? in vancouver? clearly you do not have kids. or you are a kid.
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May 19th, 2008 at 3:43 pm 159
From the "Boom over, no bust predicted" link. So, is this what the end of a real estate boom looks like?
CMHC says prices of existing houses will rise this year by 9.3 per cent in B.C., 3.6 per cent in Alberta, 26.1 per cent in Saskatchewan, 13.5 per cent in Manitoba, 3.5 per cent in Ontario, 4.7 per cent in Quebec, four per cent in New Brunswick, five per cent in Nova Scotia, three per cent in Prince Edward Island and 10.5 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.
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May 19th, 2008 at 4:28 pm 160
"free childcare? in vancouver? clearly you do not have kids. or you are a kid".
You seems to be agree with other benefits two points you have single out about rich and free child care.
"why would the rich immigrants care about welfare? they can just buy and sell leaky condos to make a living".
This type of environment is good for investor from all category because the city is definitley carry built in immune system from the jerks of nature or human control nature.People can extend their efforts to touch the heights because every body knows there is some one to privide the essential needs of life for them and their families.
""free childcare? in vancouver? clearly you do not have kids. or you are a kid".
Child benefits,child care for low income earners,return of the amount paid for as child care are all part of child care programme,it is also available to single parents without any charge,I believe there is no other country provide this other than Canada and UK.
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May 19th, 2008 at 4:33 pm 161
I must admit that i was surprised, but i wonder what this says about our world class status? Some food for thought, given many poo poo Vancouver’s status.
Ulsterman, it just mean we have weather. Rain, lots of it, overcast skies, lots of them. They've heard that people are starting to think that Vancouver is a good place to go, and as a public service they are warning people by telling them about the weather.
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May 19th, 2008 at 6:54 pm 162
Why is it that over 90% of the bulls on these forums can't string a coherent sentence together, and are so illiterate that it's hard to tell WTF they are talking about?
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May 19th, 2008 at 7:03 pm 163
Today open house I had to sell condo before market go down for decade to come many buyer want to save hundred thousands of dollars forget and no come to buy they not glorious studio market multicultural and go up in decades buy my condo it goes up for decades to come childcare is free and income triple
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May 19th, 2008 at 7:31 pm 164
“THERE IS NO DOWNTURN PLEASE”
I love the desperation coming from these clowns. Anyone wonder if Rennie is fully vested in the Vancouver RE market? I mean what happens to his income when there are no new condos to be built for the next 10 years? I'll bet that clown is lying awake nights with a barf bucket beside his bed. After all if the "Donald" couldn't stay whole through the last turn with his Daddy's money how will East Side Bob make it?
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May 19th, 2008 at 7:49 pm 165
CMHC says prices of existing houses will rise this year by 9.3 per cent in B.C., 3.6 per cent in Alberta…
This is the famous "predicting the past" methodology pioneered by the NAR et al south of the border:
1. If the market increased last year by over 10%, cut the number down a bit for next year so you don't look overoptimistic (BC, Sask, etc.).
2. If the market increased by less than 10%, just predict about the same (Eastern Canada).
2. If the market fell last year, predict a small increase next year, i.e. call the bottom (Alberta).
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May 19th, 2008 at 7:57 pm 166
“THERE IS NO DOWNTURN PLEASE”
Is a message from the bus driver not from any clowns.
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May 19th, 2008 at 7:57 pm 167
I am desperately trying to find a place to buy, but there are no listings anywhere.
I have tried to make contact with some of the realtors on Rob's site, but every time I post, I get a "your comment is waiting moderation" comment.
Is anybody else in the same situation?
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May 19th, 2008 at 8:24 pm 168
Wrongheaded editorial in the NYT:
But in many cities today, house-price declines are so severe that potential buyers are staying on the sidelines, fearful of further collapse. The result is declines that are deeper than need be to restore affordability.
Wrong. You haven't restored affordability until buying is cheaper than renting, and the US markets are still not close to that. That's what's needed to get people buying again.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/opinion/19mon1….
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May 19th, 2008 at 9:14 pm 169
"You seems to be agree with other benefits two points you have single out about rich and free child care."
allright. free healthcare? is it really free? my employer pays my msp fees. does that make it free? If it were free, how does big pharma and the health system make money? It looks free, but it's not, is it?
"Child benefits,child care for low income earners" – what? low income earners? How could the rich immigrants be low income earners if they make gazillions flipping real estate? Or do you mean they arrive rich and then turn poor after getting here? That sounds like a great way to attract immigrants, don't you think? "Arrive rich, become poor".
"return of the amount paid for as child care are all part of child care programme" – again, it shows you have no kids. what on earth are you saying? Every dollar I pay towards child care is coming back to me? Ha ha ha ha. Are we talking about the same vancouver best place on earth here?
"free education till grade 12" – yeah? Well, a few years from now, you think a grade 12 education will get you a good job? Sure, you may be doing well now, but the next generations, well, they may find it tougher.
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May 19th, 2008 at 9:18 pm 170
"Why is it that over 90% of the bulls on these forums can’t string a coherent sentence together, and are so illiterate that it’s hard to tell WTF they are talking about?"
because 99% of the bulls on this blog are really just the split personalities of satv. All of them prefer to intentionally mangle their english just to twig the bears.
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May 19th, 2008 at 9:34 pm 171
to:anonymous
re: childcare in Canada
just for the record – Canada has one of the worst records re:providing childcare – in the industrialized world
and other countries have found that when they provide free childcare, their overall social expenditures diminish exponentially, because single parents are able to work.
o.k. – back to real estate
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May 19th, 2008 at 10:24 pm 172
Sell now, or be priced in forever.
Beautiful! You win the quote-of-the-week contest!
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May 20th, 2008 at 7:55 am 173
does anyone know where we can get our hands on the raw data such as inventories and sales figures? I want to do a comparison on sales vs rent, inventory vs sales and a few other ones but I am not able to find anything raw..
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:18 am 174
Anon – a great source of up to date data from the REBGV (sales, listings, prices) is Paul Boenische:
http://www.nvcondos.ca/aPage.jsp?aPageId=2
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:29 am 175
krissh/anon comments about childcare shows how ignorant he really is, westside daycares can have multi year waiting lists and it's not free.
Whatever he says do the opposite or you could end up like him!
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:23 am 176
Why is it that over 90% of the bulls on these forums can’t string a coherent sentence together, and are so illiterate that it’s hard to tell WTF they are talking about?
While not all bulls are stupid, all stupid people are invariably bulls.
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:40 am 177
Thanks Pope for the link to Paul's site. His is great but is that the rawest form it comes in?
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