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May 7th, 2008 at 6:46 am
How the real estate went from boom to buyer’s market in a blink of an eye
Ha. It’s not a buyer’s market until the buyer is making a smarter decision than the seller, and that’s not until prices stop falling.
May 7th, 2008 at 5:59 am
-A-
Your figures are WRONG. Add up to only 100% employment. Everyone in Vancouver works at least 2 jobs. Only way to pay their mortgage, even at bankers or realtor salary. LOL
May 7th, 2008 at 4:30 am
;
;
;
The Alberta Crash at it’s early stages:
http://www.canada.com/edmonton.....c9&p=2
“How the real estate went from boom to buyer’s market in a blink of an eye
The experts explain city house prices”
Did CMHC forecast this for Alberta?
Naturally this can’t happen in BC, we have natural resource.
May 7th, 2008 at 12:58 am
i didn’t say more immigrants come here than ontario, only that this would be the preferred destination for most of them.
Immigrants can live anywhere they want, so the preferred destination is where the most immigrants go. Just like the preferred tourist destination for Canadians is where the most of them go, the preferred beer is the one that sells the most, etc.
Or do you mean perhaps that they would have preferred to come to Vancouver but they went to Toronto because they can afford to buy a house there but not here. Well that’s really bullish for Vancouver RE isn’t it.
May 7th, 2008 at 12:44 am
Ok patriotz, it’s all going to zero.
“All” going to zero? All what?
Anyway the BoC rate, whatever it is, is not relevant to RE markets. Retail mortgage rates – which are determined by the bond markets and retail overhead and risk premium – are, and they’re not coming down, unless we get into a severe recession, in which case the RE market will be way past the point of saving no matter how low rates go.
There was a huge drop in mortgage rates from 82 to 84 and we all know how much good that did for the market.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
-A-, you make some very good points. I would like to add that employers in Vancouver are very generous and like to give big raises every year. Everyone gets at least a ten percent raise every year, so house prices can keep going up up up because our incomes are growing as fast as house prices.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Coco’s new blog started up
Things you may want to know
http://thingsyoumaywanttoknow.wordpress.com
First topic posted is on real estate.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
do do:
there will be enough immigrants coming here to sustain a significant demand for real estate (rental or owned). your implied theory of massive deflationary implosion is unlikely; you do care about theories, otherwise you wouldn’t have responded to my post in the first place. i didn’t say more immigrants come here than ontario, only that this would be the preferred destination for most of them.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Ok patriotz, it’s all going to zero. Sorry, you had to pay 20% in the 80′s, but the spineless BOC does quarter percantage hikes nowadays, so it will take Carney another .25 times 64 meetings to get back there. See you in 5.3 years……..
May 6th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Stagnate,
I don’t really care about Theories. You had said that Vancouver was the first choice for immigrants, but Ontario gets almost 3X as many every year. You then re-iterated that “toronto was surpassed as the first choice of immigrants about twenty years ago”, which by all the data I can find is just plain not true.
Are you wrong, or am I????????
May 6th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
here’s some math for you.
Even if all new housing is rental only and no buys to live in it.
Rentalsupply2008 – Rentersdemand2008 = vancancy2008
[Rental suppy2010 = Rentalsupply2008 + (x/2)]
[Rentersdemand2010 = Rentersdemand2008 2002+ x/2]
Renterdemand2010 – Rentersdemand2010 – Vancancy2010
Vancancy2008 > Vancancy2010
With Vancancy already at a low and going to get worse, how will rents not go up??
May 6th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
do do:
immigration is one thing i am quite certain on, a lot are going to come. this old man is off to bed now so i won’t expand on my immigration theories. have a good night.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
you can get a 500K mortgage and only have to pay 20K in interest a year! Rent for that type of property is not that far off,
“Not that far off”? You’re the one who’s far off – like on another planet.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
It’s all about rates, as usual, people. Rates are way too low so we are now seeing a saver’s revolt in commodities. I would not be surprised to see oil hit 130 soon. Rice, wheat, everything is going up so why would I leave my money in an account paying 3%?
Vancouver real estate is absurdly priced if you look at long term trends, but you can get a 500K mortgage and only have to pay 20K in interest a year! Rent for that type of property is not that far off, so I think we have to wait till the labour market detiorates.
It could start tomorrow, but be objective, talk that van real estate is going to drop 30% overnight is a little optimistic from the renter’s side, especially since the BOC has hinted two more rate cuts are on the way (inflation is only 1.4%)haha.
Can we say a 3.5% variable rate!!
I also heard that Ben Bernanke is willing take BC bud as collaterol for mortgages in Van to stabilize the markets.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Stagnate,
I will give you Miami being more elastic than Vancouver, but I don’t believe Vancouver has this inexhaustible demand, especially at these prices (or even 70% of these prices).
I do not believe we have lots of demand waiting based on the already historically high ownership rate. How can this be??? The only way we could increase that was by borrowing from the future. Is the future ever going to arrive?
You haven’t addressed the immigration point yet!!
May 6th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
sidelines:
you need to stay on the sidelines until you pass math 11. you’re not ready to be a 4th liner on the home team.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
So if these new people can’t afford to buy they will need to rent, thus rents2010 much greater rents2008
If they can’t afford to buy the new construction will be purchased by landlords and rented out. It has to be one or the other.
Increased rental supply, no increase in rents.
As long as new construction equals or exceeds rate of household growth real rents cannot go up. No matter who is buying or not buying.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
do do:
no, i’m a bit older than the typical kits renter demographic. i wouldn’t describe it as pent up demand, but there are a lot of potential buyers out there. it reminds me of 2000 ish when it was a frenzy trying to find a decent rental apartment and the rental pool swelled. some will decide to rent long term, some are close to entering the market, some need their incomes or prices to adjust to varying degrees to enter the market. hard to say to what degree speculators will influence the market from here. you are obviously more bearish than me, no point arguing (ever) on real estate predictions. i do my homework on any investment grouping, you can trust me the vancouver real estate market is less elastic than miami’s.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Stagnate:
“I anticipate demand will stay quite constant.”
Okay, supply stays steady then. So with rising supply… what does that mean, you think? I think I hear Langara calling…
And how is it you know what those “oodles of young couples” in Kits are up to, anyway? I’m in Kits and I have no idea what they’re up to.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
Canada has very little land and a huge population, therefore the scarcity of land is very real, it’s not as if with a stroke of a pen we can rezone and make more land available for new construction, this is why, although demand is high, there is not one crane in sight.
Vancouver is the most desirable place on earth; its near tropical weather, and thousands of miles of palm tree lined beaches makes it the number 1 destination choice for PhD’s from all over the world who want to establish a career with any of the thousands of head offices in Vancouver.
Vancouver’s stock exchange is currently in negotiations with the NYSE, FTSE, and NIKKIE to merge, and it is rumored the new Vancouver World Stock Exchange will be located on Alma & 4th.
Currently the composition of the labour force is :Technology and Science 85%, Finance 5% ,Services and Others 10% Median Household income: East Vancouver $198,000, West Vancouver $356,000.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
hmm… post does not equal what I posted.
Regardless,
supply < demand
So if these new people can’t afford to buy they will need to rent, thus rents2010 much greater rents2008
May 6th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Stagnate,
There has been record numbers of FTB entering the market the last few years and the homeownership percentage is at record levels. I am not sure you can argue for all this pent up demand. I think maybe you are forgetting about the speculators? Also, these couples waiting on the sidelines; they are waiting for a 2% price drop? The market will need to get slaughtered to bring these people into the market.
Affordability is indeed an issue, but if we have a record number of homeowners, and there are all these people waiting; who has bought all the houses? Maybe you notice these young couples renting because they are your age group?
You are categorically wrong on the Immigration issue.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/r.....ent/17.asp
You still have not given a good reason Vancouver is less elastic than Miami? You really think that when the $%!^ hits the fan here, people won’t be running for the exits?
May 6th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
BC population 2010 – BC population 2008 = X
housing needs for 2010 = (x/2)
BC houses 2010 < BC houses 2008 + (x/2)
Supply >rents2008.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
BDK,
Do you live in world class city?Would you like to name the city you live in?Are you American citizen by the way?what is the difference between CDN,$ and USA $?.What is the difference between postal code and zip code?Do you live in coalharbour, vancouver, new york, USA?.
Where else do you lurk to post your comments?is it a news paper called “the vancouver sun”?what were you trying to post there?
May 6th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
There is no way Satv/Krissh/time/anonymous would pass the LPI to get into Langara College.
This is a guy who writes incoherent rants and then thanks himself and thinks homeless people make good babysitters.
There is no way anyone could be as dumb as he pretends to be but he is clearly the dumbest person on this blog.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
do do:
i anticipate demand will stay quite constant, i live in the kits area where there are oodles of young couples renting, waiting for the conditions to improve a bit so they can buy something. tremendous pressure on the rental market, there is no shortage of potential buyers out there. i believe it is affordability not demand that is a more pertinent issue. toronto was surpassed as the first choice of immigrants about twenty years ago. vancouver is the most desireable place for immigrants in canada, miami had too much competition for potential new demand. as soon as the fundamentals turned in miami the demand dried up (essentially people moved elsewhere). vancouver is less elastic. for a wholesale collapse of the market here i think we need to see significant changes in the macroeconomic picture (a collapse in the bond market maybe?).
May 6th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Sounds like you did not see over 3200 buyers yestreday that’s why you have rebound your self here for more rant,do you like to see some more?“RE investing for %$*#$ idiots”
“course”
What happend some one brought you back in to your sense again?
May 6th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Happy in Van, Hey I found an alley that is up for grabs cheap! Guy is leaving for better places, and is willing to negotiate. Will take $100.00 for exclusive turf give it a try SATV! Nope sorry he won’t take title to your property, this guy wants equity!
May 6th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
langara community college
where satv picked up his
“RE investing for %$*#$ idiots”
course
May 6th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Stagnate,
You don’t think demand will fall off of a cliff when prices turn? Are you one of those people who believes that demand isn’t related to price? Maybe everyone wanted to live here at $160K house price, but at $800K; I suspect not. The government determines how much immigration we get, not these magic people who want to move here. Vancouver is not the first choice of immigrants; toronto is! Why is demand less elastic than Miami? You think that families making 60K buying 600K houses isn’t subprime?
Are you a real estate investor or a realtor???
May 6th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
“ECON 099 (langara college remedial class)”
What’s “langara”? I couldn’t find it in the dictionary.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Nothing more interesting than blogging, which gives the deranged equal say with those of us who are sane. I wonder what outlet persons like the 19:40:10 anonymous had before blogs. Maybe Graffiti?
May 6th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Thank you
May 6th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Happy in Van,
Sure say thanks to vhb and all the side kicks to keep you out of market, say thanks to them and tell them that the money you have stored in the bonds or stocks can not buy you a place to live in your own city.
Say thanks to them-many many thanks that you can not even buy chicken shack while other people who bought at the same time when you did not buy are millionaire now, those people have paid off more than 30% of their mortgage and they have earned 121% appreciation.
say thank you all, tell them the story of affordability erroded and your nights and days have become same even in the dark, go tell them.
Tell them if they ever have to predict a crash again just install 10 feet long piller on the edge of Spanish Bank and English Way and write the prediction story like this
” if the water waves ever over ride the top of the pillers then Vancouver Real estate market will crash big time”
that way if crash does not show up for next 100 centuaries they will be right because the sign is water level must cross above the piller.
Say thanks to them I say thanks to you all thanks every one vancouver rocks.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
booga booga summed me up as well but without the pension. I think you have to work in government these days to get a pension, and I couldn’t do 35years of government work.
But otherwise, he summed up alot of us well I thought.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
That’s a typical response from a permabear. Rational, indeed.
I bought in the 80′s, bozo.
See what I mean?
The “angry bulls on bear blogs” index seems to be rising daily. It proved to be an excellent leading indicator of the US bust.
May 6th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
this is a decent thread, a mix of arguments in support of bullish and bearish prediction. demand is not going to drop off a cliff. canada will see increasing immigration, and for the majority of immigrants vancouver is their first choice. there is a limit in their mobility for seeking out cheaper backwaters like saskatoon and winnipeg. demand is less elastic than places like miami and san diego. although our mortgage market is less prudent than it used to be we don’t have jumbo mtg. and subprime issues to the same degree as other jurisdictions. nonetheless the fundamentals are bearish. in the short term i can see some demand/supply issues. like oil though, when demand exceeds supply for a product as far as can be projected, you have a problem! i’m not a realtor or real estate investor (currently), so i don’t want any half wits accusing me of such!
May 6th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
ECON 099 (langara college remedial class) = Student loan
Student loan = no condo
no condo = bear
bear = hungry
hungry = complaining
May 6th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
“Like all ideologues, the RE permabulls accuse their opponents of being advocates of the opposing ideology, instead of recognizing that they are simply being rational.”
That’s a typical response from a permabear. Rational, indeed.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
The one thing this blog shows in spades is that bears are just as likely as bulls to drink their own koolaid.
Like the US-wide RE crash, Spanish RE crash, Irish RE crash, just starting UK RE crash, year old Alberta RE crash, are some sort of delusion?
Now just what do all these places have in common? That it costs way more to buy a house than rent the same place, just maybe?
If the bears are still bearish when it’s cheaper to buy than rent in Vancouver, then they will be drinking their own koolaid. Speaking for myself I won’t be.
Like all ideologues, the RE permabulls accuse their opponents of being advocates of the opposing ideology, instead of recognizing that they are simply being rational.
May 6th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Rob A:
“After 2010 there will not only be site C but Gateway, Evergreen, M-Line Extension, new St. Pauls, Childrens Hosipital, East Fraser lands, new bc place roof etc etc. the Projects never stop, they only change.”
big government spending now = BIG BIG TROUBLE LATER
ECON 099 (langara college remedial class)
May 6th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Sorry. My handle is not boogabooga. I put my email in the wrong spot. Boogabooga sounds stupid and I am a little embarassed. It is fake anyway.
P.S. Does anyone know how to stop a keyboard from making these things – ÉÈèèèàÉ
May 6th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
I love Vancouver. I was born here. I grew up here. I have a sentimental attachment to this place. Of course, I can’t afford a house but I’m saving cash every month. I rent a nice little condo close to work. It’s at least half the cost of owning. I have a pension building at my work. A rare thing these days and the reason I don’t move. I have rrsp’s, bonds, and mutual funds. I live cheaply but happily and relatively stress free. At current prices I absolutely will not buy real estate. It’s seems to me a very risky investment. (I read somewhere that the best thing you can do to get ahead in life is to pay as little interest as possible. Get them to pay YOU interest.) I’ve been reading these blogs for years (This one, Vhb, Victoria, (Un)realestate, Rob etc.) and I have got to tell you, the indicators the bears have been predicting for so long are coming true. Indicators like inflation, absense of FTBs and sharply increasing inventory. I just wanted to say thanks for the advise from all of you. Thanks for running these blogs and thanks for the intelligent posts. Except krrish.
May 6th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
They quote “experts” who don’t have to worry too much about being called out on factual and logical reasoning errors…
And that’s different in exactly which way from THIS blog quoting a sympathetic statement from (of all people) Learah?
The one thing this blog shows in spades is that bears are just as likely as bulls to drink their own koolaid.
May 6th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Omg, if you people keep waiting you won’t be able to afford anything in Vancouver, the same way you can’t afford a condo right now in red hot Downtown.
well and truly priced out, why bother trying to get in now?
May 6th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Site C will become a $16 billion project after all the cost overruns.
May 6th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
How many vancouver condos have lawns anyways?
May 6th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Lots of people can ‘afford’ a condo downtown, but who wants to pay speculator prices for a depreciating concrete box when they can only get half the carrying cost in market rent?
May 6th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
“If you don’t like the rain buy an umbrella, it’s a lot cheaper then running a sprinker in Phoenix.”
So, you’re willing to pay twice as much to live in Vancouver (compared to Phoenix), just so you don’t have to water your lawn?
May 6th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Omg, if you people keep waiting you won’t be able to afford anything in Vancouver, the same way you can’t afford a condo right now in red hot Downtown. Prices keep going up. This is Canada and the USA.