I don’t understand your argument. Does it really matter how many immigrants “prefer” to move to Vancouver? Shouldn’t the number matter? Or like with all housing bulls, numbers don’t matter?

Adams: “I think that the number of people who can afford a single-family (house) at the price that we have to charge in Edmonton is greatly reduced because they’re just getting expensive.

Sorry to break the news to you Mr. Adams, but Mr. Market doesn’t care how much “you have to charge” for a house, whether you are developer or a reseller. You get what he feels like giving you.

If you would like some evidence for this theory, why not accompany some of your fellow Albertans on one of their property-shopping trips to Phoenix.

The other “experts” are just as clueless (or dishonest).

Ha. It’s not a buyer’s market until the buyer is making a smarter decision than the seller, and that’s not until prices stop falling.

The Alberta Crash at it’s early stages:

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/n … 77f3c9&p=2

“How the real estate went from boom to buyer’s market in a blink of an eye
The experts explain city house prices”

Did CMHC forecast this for Alberta?

Naturally this can’t happen in BC, we have natural resource.

Immigrants can live anywhere they want, so the preferred destination is where the most immigrants go. Just like the preferred tourist destination for Canadians is where the most of them go, the preferred beer is the one that sells the most, etc.

Or do you mean perhaps that they would have preferred to come to Vancouver but they went to Toronto because they can afford to buy a house there but not here. Well that’s really bullish for Vancouver RE isn’t it.

“All” going to zero? All what?

Anyway the BoC rate, whatever it is, is not relevant to RE markets. Retail mortgage rates - which are determined by the bond markets and retail overhead and risk premium - are, and they’re not coming down, unless we get into a severe recession, in which case the RE market will be way past the point of saving no matter how low rates go.

There was a huge drop in mortgage rates from 82 to 84 and we all know how much good that did for the market.

Things you may want to know

http://thingsyoumaywanttoknow.wordpress.com

First topic posted is on real estate.

there will be enough immigrants coming here to sustain a significant demand for real estate (rental or owned). your implied theory of massive deflationary implosion is unlikely; you do care about theories, otherwise you wouldn’t have responded to my post in the first place. i didn’t say more immigrants come here than ontario, only that this would be the preferred destination for most of them.

I don’t really care about Theories. You had said that Vancouver was the first choice for immigrants, but Ontario gets almost 3X as many every year. You then re-iterated that “toronto was surpassed as the first choice of immigrants about twenty years ago”, which by all the data I can find is just plain not true.

Are you wrong, or am I????????

Rentalsupply2008 - Rentersdemand2008 = vancancy2008
[Rental suppy2010 = Rentalsupply2008 + (x/2)]
[Rentersdemand2010 = Rentersdemand2008 2002+ x/2]
Renterdemand2010 - Rentersdemand2010 - Vancancy2010

Vancancy2008 > Vancancy2010

With Vancancy already at a low and going to get worse, how will rents not go up??

immigration is one thing i am quite certain on, a lot are going to come. this old man is off to bed now so i won’t expand on my immigration theories. have a good night.

“Not that far off”? You’re the one who’s far off - like on another planet.

Vancouver real estate is absurdly priced if you look at long term trends, but you can get a 500K mortgage and only have to pay 20K in interest a year! Rent for that type of property is not that far off, so I think we have to wait till the labour market detiorates.

It could start tomorrow, but be objective, talk that van real estate is going to drop 30% overnight is a little optimistic from the renter’s side, especially since the BOC has hinted two more rate cuts are on the way (inflation is only 1.4%)haha.

Can we say a 3.5% variable rate!!

I also heard that Ben Bernanke is willing take BC bud as collaterol for mortgages in Van to stabilize the markets.

I will give you Miami being more elastic than Vancouver, but I don’t believe Vancouver has this inexhaustible demand, especially at these prices (or even 70% of these prices).

I do not believe we have lots of demand waiting based on the already historically high ownership rate. How can this be??? The only way we could increase that was by borrowing from the future. Is the future ever going to arrive?

You haven’t addressed the immigration point yet!!

you need to stay on the sidelines until you pass math 11. you’re not ready to be a 4th liner on the home team.

If they can’t afford to buy the new construction will be purchased by landlords and rented out. It has to be one or the other.

Increased rental supply, no increase in rents.

As long as new construction equals or exceeds rate of household growth real rents cannot go up. No matter who is buying or not buying.

no, i’m a bit older than the typical kits renter demographic. i wouldn’t describe it as pent up demand, but there are a lot of potential buyers out there. it reminds me of 2000 ish when it was a frenzy trying to find a decent rental apartment and the rental pool swelled. some will decide to rent long term, some are close to entering the market, some need their incomes or prices to adjust to varying degrees to enter the market. hard to say to what degree speculators will influence the market from here. you are obviously more bearish than me, no point arguing (ever) on real estate predictions. i do my homework on any investment grouping, you can trust me the vancouver real estate market is less elastic than miami’s.

“I anticipate demand will stay quite constant.”

Okay, supply stays steady then. So with rising supply… what does that mean, you think? I think I hear Langara calling…

And how is it you know what those “oodles of young couples” in Kits are up to, anyway? I’m in Kits and I have no idea what they’re up to.

Vancouver is the most desirable place on earth; its near tropical weather, and thousands of miles of palm tree lined beaches makes it the number 1 destination choice for PhD’s from all over the world who want to establish a career with any of the thousands of head offices in Vancouver.

Vancouver’s stock exchange is currently in negotiations with the NYSE, FTSE, and NIKKIE to merge, and it is rumored the new Vancouver World Stock Exchange will be located on Alma & 4th.

Currently the composition of the labour force is :Technology and Science 85%, Finance 5% ,Services and Others 10% Median Household income: East Vancouver $198,000, West Vancouver $356,000.

Regardless,
supply < demand

So if these new people can’t afford to buy they will need to rent, thus rents2010 much greater rents2008

There has been record numbers of FTB entering the market the last few years and the homeownership percentage is at record levels. I am not sure you can argue for all this pent up demand. I think maybe you are forgetting about the speculators? Also, these couples waiting on the sidelines; they are waiting for a 2% price drop? The market will need to get slaughtered to bring these people into the market.

Affordability is indeed an issue, but if we have a record number of homeowners, and there are all these people waiting; who has bought all the houses? Maybe you notice these young couples renting because they are your age group?

You are categorically wrong on the Immigration issue.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/ … ent/17.asp

You still have not given a good reason Vancouver is less elastic than Miami? You really think that when the $%!^ hits the fan here, people won’t be running for the exits?