May 2008 mid-month inventory
Umdesch4 posted this updated REBGV inventory chart this weekend, showing the dramatic listings activity we’re seeing this spring in Vancouver. That purple line shows how inventory is building beyond levels seen at any point in the last few years.
The monthly inventory graph comes from Paul Boenisch, who shares monthly inventory graphs for the entire REBGV and sub areas. This graph has been updated to the 15th of May based on the daily stats Paul makes available on his website. Pauls blog is here.
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May 20th, 2008 at 8:59 am
May 20th, 2008 at 9:30 am
May 20th, 2008 at 9:31 am
it’s amazing that there are still some idiots out there looking to buy into this market.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:12 am
except people have been saying we’re overbuilding for years and prices still go up. I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer, at least now buyers have a lot to choose from.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:25 am
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[crickets chirping]
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There are fewer buyers now, Douche, er Dosh. They’re not waiting to show up for the summer. It seems that sales are going down YOY and MOM. Why should they wait for summer?
May 20th, 2008 at 10:37 am
May 20th, 2008 at 10:37 am
May 20th, 2008 at 10:43 am
May 20th, 2008 at 10:52 am
There will likely be some mention of this in the local papers after the end of May, offset by the usual suspects spin on how it represents more choice and a return to a balanced market. I suspect you won’t see many articles putting too much focus on the big inventory increase and sales drop-off for at least a couple of months. If this trend continues it will be very hard to ignore and become trickier to spin.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Listings at levels not seen for years - what a sight, that graph! This, while the number of buyers (demand) doesn’t appear to be following the same trend.
So, yes indeed, lots of supply (or choice, as you put it).
How does this square off with the idea some have that real estate prices can’t go down in this city, that they will just keep going up, up, up?
When you have a big increase in supply and no similar increase in demand, what it is that happens again?
May 20th, 2008 at 11:00 am
May 20th, 2008 at 11:02 am
*edit* ok, message received, thanks! I’ve removed those comments, please keep it reasonably civilized folks.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:17 am
May 20th, 2008 at 11:41 am
First thing I am going to buy with my massive profits is a new Boss suit
May 20th, 2008 at 11:50 am
“I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer, at least now buyers have a lot to choose from.”
Isn’t this almost word for word what David Liareh said when the US market was entering the same phase?
You’re not fooling anyone here into buying Dosh, might as well take in the shingle, close out your office rental and join the unemployment line now to get in ahead of the crowd.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:56 am
the heavy lifting season for sales is spring, not the summer doldrums.
what is now happening here is what happened in California 2 years ago. the ol’ “Silent Spring” scenario.
scary enough is this is literally “word for word” what went down in ‘06 in California…… it is not different here and
it is not different this time…..
May 20th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Rob A.:
Boss suits only cost $1200
Is that big money to you?
May 20th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
That means 2 less suits to where to the cafe! where the action is!
May 20th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
if he was still a RE bull(****er), he’d be holiding onto it so he could make more profits while he moves to TO.
And to be honest, Boss suits are rather tacky.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Yet on Friday you were going out for “dinner on the patio” and then “snuggling with the GF” in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Not only that the market was going to go up,up,up
What building are you in Rob A.?
I can see the listings before they hit the MLS
May 20th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Not at all surprised, this is a bubble, and there will be idiots buying until the 11th hour and 59.99999 seconds.
May 20th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
And now it is Tuesday, what’s your point?
I’m still bullish on real estate in beautiful downtown Vancouver. If you are into caffes and resturants it is the place to be.
But I don’t want to hold onto a condo and rent it out while I am on the otherside of the country. Hopefully I can get this deal done before I go and reap the rewords of my intelligence, foresight, and courage!
May 20th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
we’ll judge that based on the metrics:
what did you pay for your unit?
when did you buy it?
what are you listing it for?
what are your closing costs/mortgage payout?
ps: you can pick up a Boss suit on consignment
for less than $250 if you are into tacky name brand stuff
May 20th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Who here has ever accepted a job offer (not including McDonald’s or box stacking) over a long weekend?
In other words Rob A. I believe you are full of sh#t.
How will you ever survive without all the “caffes” and hip restaurants in TO? What about the “place to be”? Surprising how the bears come out of the woodwork once things slip a little.
May 20th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
make that pseudo-bears seeing as how Rob A is a bull wannabe to start with….
there is nothing like finding religion when you are in the trenches and getting shot at…..
May 20th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Oh, and I’m sure it will sell. I’m not interested in this dragging out.
I’ve priced it to move
May 20th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
When did you sign the contract? Is it on the MLS already?
May 20th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
I think you have that backwards.
I hope you like the taste of your Ikea furniture because you’ll be eating it before winter.
May 20th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
I prefer that they wait for next spring, while a few more thousand boxes and a few 10s of thousands of Mac Mansions get built.
What’s the point of having a bust if it’s not going to be spectacular so that we will not have the appetite for another bubble for at least 25 years?
If they pull the listings off the market, and prices don’t drop precipitously it will give the greater fools a wrong reading, and they will keep building and leveraging until the bottom falls out overnight.
I’d like that, MLS @36,000, the Olympic bills start to come in, the government make work projects winding down, some young couple/team economist/journalist take the RE Pimps to court as an experiment and are almost successful at a class action suit.
May 20th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Having said that, if I ever do buy a north shore condo, he would be the first realtor I contact.
How come Paul (a realtor) is more honest than all these so-called journalists, and economists in this province?
May 20th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
don’t worry, this is just getting started.
it will be both spectacular and profound….
think new paradigm….
given our Canadian demographics, who’s going to buy all this RE?
especially in the suburbs given our current energy problems.
long-term depreciating asset class….
“No bottom in sight” boomer mantra for the 00’s
May 20th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Not once has anyone at my office said a peep to me. In general Realtors have no interest in my site. My site is local and although it has seen great growth, we are still small bananas.
I find change exciting and although I am nervous about the market correcting I feel it’s necessary for the greater good of the Vancouver housing market. Where we will be in two or three years is anyone’s guess, and could be shocking.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....ml?ref=rss
So let’s recap. BC’s economy is based on:
1. Forestry
2. Construction
3. Tourism
Unless you count grow-ops, things aren’t looking too good for BC’s ability to sustain house prices.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
5. pallet stacker
May 20th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
http://tinyurl.com/4r2feq
May 20th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Get your fruits right. That’s small potatos</i) not bananas. Just yanking your chain. There will always be sales no matter the condition of the market. Intelligent customers will seek out realistic, straight shooting realtors, particularly when the air starts to leak from this bubble. Your numbers and blog will pay you dividends so I hope that whatever happens you keep it up.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Paul,
Realtors may have no interest in your site, but many others do!!!
Thanks for providing the stats.
What does the GVREB think about you providing such detailed daily information in a very easy to read format? No spin - straight up numbers. I can’t see them being very thrilled about this.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
But remember the real pro gun repairs are done only in the Valley.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Newsflash, tqn, Rob, Realitycheck?
If you tell us I will tell you my current handle at the other blog.
May 20th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Cheers!
May 20th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
i posted this over on robs’ site
thought you might enjoy
the poetic moment
blueskies { 05.20.08 at 5:11 pm }
Biseroni:
Spinmeister 9000
don’t need no stinkin’ bio
read the bluebook dude
haiku for RE
May 20th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
those numbers are not your personal property, you can publish them but if you comment on them that makes you to call some one’s whore you dum head.
“Congratulation North Vancouver Prices are up-some time ago”
To whom the fuck were you telling all that bs?
“Excellent North Vancouver +3%” what the fuck was that?
North Vancouver is 3% down oh now what to do?
Mother fucking Realtors like you and jeff stand for best filthy idiots on earth.Tell us….
What do you tell to your client as buyers?
what do you tell to your clients as sellers?
if you know the answer in your mind, you and jeff should figure out properly who the fuck you are? you fucking filthy idiot.Did you ever talk to your dad Cameron Muir about this I am sure you are registerd with some othername to the board.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
And I’m sure that you meant potatoes to be inside those italics.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Correct. I meant “potatoes”. I am also spelling challenged it appears. Now, with that out of the way, how might “Thums up2″ acquire a brain? Seems he’s had a frontal lobotomy.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
totally pissed bull
gotta luv it!
May 20th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
I think he did not notice that WE are on HIS side.
Relax, our angry friend, and tell us why you are growling…
May 20th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
May 20th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
We also had a booming film industry based on the exchange rate making us a bargain, but there’s talk of an upcoming screen actors guild strike that will put a dent in those incomes.