Vancouver spring 2008, sales droppings, listings growing

May 2008 mid-month inventory

Umdesch4 posted this updated REBGV inventory chart this weekend, showing the dramatic listings activity we’re seeing this spring in Vancouver. That purple line shows how inventory is building beyond levels seen at any point in the last few years.

The monthly inventory graph comes from Paul Boenisch, who shares monthly inventory graphs for the entire REBGV and sub areas. This graph has been updated to the 15th of May based on the daily stats Paul makes available on his website. Pauls blog is here.

RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

128 Responses to “May 2008 mid-month inventory”

Pages: [1] 2 3 » Show all comments newest first

1
The Pope Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Thanks Umdesch4 and Paul! If either of you have an issue with me posting this here just let me know.
2
paulb Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Alarming isn’t it? If in the coming weeks we no not buck the trend we are in for a rough ride.
3
franko Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 9:31 am
I can’t think of a single item that could possibly affect price direction more than supply and demand, and I can’t think of anything that could possibly influence supply and demand more than this wild inventory spike.

it’s amazing that there are still some idiots out there looking to buy into this market.
4
Dosh Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:12 am
I can’t think of a single item that could possibly affect price direction more than supply and demand

except people have been saying we’re overbuilding for years and prices still go up. I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer, at least now buyers have a lot to choose from.
5
BBY Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Sales are low now because all those buyers have so much to choose from. So many more open houses to see than previous years. It takes time to see all those buzzing open houses. Yup, all the buzzing open houses that sound like this…
.
.
.
[crickets chirping]
.
.
.
There are fewer buyers now, Douche, er Dosh. They’re not waiting to show up for the summer. It seems that sales are going down YOY and MOM. Why should they wait for summer?
6
Warren Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Continued thanks to Paul for his good work. It should be an interesting spring/summer season. When will this hit the media, end of May maybe?
7
laffo Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Either the cognitive dissonance of Vancouverite property market shills is overpowering to its victims or the rotten culture of Vancouver Stock Exchange penny stock promotion (read: lying) is still alive and well in all those who claim that the real estate market couldn’t possibly deflate.
8
Anonymouse Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Vancouver… nothing but a two bit marshland of feces
9
The Pope Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:52 am
When will this hit the media, end of May maybe?

There will likely be some mention of this in the local papers after the end of May, offset by the usual suspects spin on how it represents more choice and a return to a balanced market. I suspect you won’t see many articles putting too much focus on the big inventory increase and sales drop-off for at least a couple of months. If this trend continues it will be very hard to ignore and become trickier to spin.
10
sidelines Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 10:59 am
That’s right, Dosh, looking good for buyers.

Listings at levels not seen for years - what a sight, that graph! This, while the number of buyers (demand) doesn’t appear to be following the same trend.

So, yes indeed, lots of supply (or choice, as you put it).

How does this square off with the idea some have that real estate prices can’t go down in this city, that they will just keep going up, up, up?

When you have a big increase in supply and no similar increase in demand, what it is that happens again?
11
Warren Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Speaking of spin, Bill Good will be hosting Garth Turner on his show tomorrow, some time between 9am and 12 noon on CKNW. Lets see what Booster-Bill can say in response to Garth’s views. Turner isn’t my favorite person, but at least he has a fairly objective view on the perils of RE.
12
The Pope Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:02 am
On a side note, can you guys lay off the krissh impersonations? I don’t think we need the echo, but lets have a democratic experiment:

*edit* ok, message received, thanks! I’ve removed those comments, please keep it reasonably civilized folks.
13
aetakeo Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Wow. Picture like that is worth a thousand words; it’s reminiscent of the foothills of the price spike in VHB’s old “you are here” graph for westside condos. The market’s supply side a reflection of the demand, forward 6 years.
14
Rob A. Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:41 am
lol, you can add my condo in the heart of downtown to that list. I accepted a great job in Ontario so I called me agent today and told her that I am “very motivated”

First thing I am going to buy with my massive profits is a new Boss suit
15
Drachen Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Dosh

“I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer, at least now buyers have a lot to choose from.”

Isn’t this almost word for word what David Liareh said when the US market was entering the same phase?

You’re not fooling anyone here into buying Dosh, might as well take in the shingle, close out your office rental and join the unemployment line now to get in ahead of the crowd.
16
blueskies Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 11:56 am
I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer

the heavy lifting season for sales is spring, not the summer doldrums.

what is now happening here is what happened in California 2 years ago. the ol’ “Silent Spring” scenario.

scary enough is this is literally “word for word” what went down in ‘06 in California…… it is not different here and
it is not different this time…..
17
bdk Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
You’re all wrong, increased supply and lack of qualified buyers means the market will go up more!

Rob A.:
Boss suits only cost $1200
Is that big money to you?
18
bdk Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
If you were to try to rent out your condo you’d be losing 2 Boss suits per month, same goes for any speculator out there trying to make money in the market by renting out a unit while awaiting gains in resale value.
That means 2 less suits to where to the cafe! where the action is!
19
read on Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
hey now, lets not be too hard on Rob-A - afterall, he’s just turned bear and is selling his condo.

if he was still a RE bull(****er), he’d be holiding onto it so he could make more profits while he moves to TO.

And to be honest, Boss suits are rather tacky.
20
Tony Danza Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
lol, you can add my condo in the heart of downtown to that list. I accepted a great job in Ontario so I called me agent today and told her that I am “very motivated”

Yet on Friday you were going out for “dinner on the patio” and then “snuggling with the GF” in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight.
21
bdk Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Yet on Friday you were going out for “dinner on the patio” and then “snuggling with the GF” in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight.

Not only that the market was going to go up,up,up

What building are you in Rob A.?
I can see the listings before they hit the MLS
22
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
“it’s amazing that there are still some idiots out there looking to buy into this market.”

Not at all surprised, this is a bubble, and there will be idiots buying until the 11th hour and 59.99999 seconds.
23
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Looks like it may follow the Hong Kong pattern…prices drop a little, the last of the fools jump in, (2007 dead cat bounce) , then a few minor pick ups, and then the final nail…..50% drop
24
Rob A. Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
“Yet on Friday you were going out for “dinner on the patio” and then “snuggling with the GF” in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight.”

And now it is Tuesday, what’s your point?

I’m still bullish on real estate in beautiful downtown Vancouver. If you are into caffes and resturants it is the place to be.

But I don’t want to hold onto a condo and rent it out while I am on the otherside of the country. Hopefully I can get this deal done before I go and reap the rewords of my intelligence, foresight, and courage!
25
Rob A. Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
And yes $1200 is a significant amount of money to me. I’m just an average guy trying to get ahead make some extra cash. I’m not a baller like you bdk.
26
blueskies Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
before I go and reap the rewords of my intelligence, foresight, and courage!

we’ll judge that based on the metrics:
what did you pay for your unit?
when did you buy it?
what are you listing it for?
what are your closing costs/mortgage payout?

ps: you can pick up a Boss suit on consignment
for less than $250 if you are into tacky name brand stuff
27
Warren Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Many thumbs up (great new system BTW) to anyone who can find and track Rob A.’s condo sale. Does anybody know what he paid and when he bought?
28
Anonymous Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
If Rob A gives up the address I’ll post the purchase price and eventual selling price (if it even sells).
29
lance Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
I don’t get it, how could $1200 be a lot of money for you? thats just the normal monthly ‘ownership premium’ you pay for a 1 bedroom apartment right now.
30
Tony Danza Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
And now it is Tuesday, what’s your point?

Who here has ever accepted a job offer (not including McDonald’s or box stacking) over a long weekend?

In other words Rob A. I believe you are full of sh#t. How will you ever survive without all the “caffes” and hip restaurants in TO? What about the “place to be”? Surprising how the bears come out of the woodwork once things slip a little.
31
blueskies Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
In other words Rob A. I believe you are full of sh#t. How will you ever survive without all the “caffes” and hip restaurants in TO? What about the “place to be”? Surprising how the bears come out of the woodwork once things slip a little.

make that pseudo-bears seeing as how Rob A is a bull wannabe to start with….

there is nothing like finding religion when you are in the trenches and getting shot at…..
32
Rob A. Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
lance, I guess you are just a big time baller if you think 1.2k is nothing. That’s fine with me. Maybe when I get my profits from selling my condo I can be a bit like you too.

Oh, and I’m sure it will sell. I’m not interested in this dragging out.

I’ve priced it to move
33
Rob A. Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
As I said before, I am still a bear. I am selling because my situation has changed. Onward and upward! I hope all of you enjoy being priced out forever!
34
bdk Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Are you saying it’s listed already?
When did you sign the contract? Is it on the MLS already?
35
Drachen Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
“As I said before, I am still a bear.”

I think you have that backwards.

I hope you like the taste of your Ikea furniture because you’ll be eating it before winter.
36
-A- Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
I sure hope the specuvestors don’t panic-just yet.

I prefer that they wait for next spring, while a few more thousand boxes and a few 10s of thousands of Mac Mansions get built.

What’s the point of having a bust if it’s not going to be spectacular so that we will not have the appetite for another bubble for at least 25 years?

If they pull the listings off the market, and prices don’t drop precipitously it will give the greater fools a wrong reading, and they will keep building and leveraging until the bottom falls out overnight.

I’d like that, MLS @36,000, the Olympic bills start to come in, the government make work projects winding down, some young couple/team economist/journalist take the RE Pimps to court as an experiment and are almost successful at a class action suit.
37
vanguy Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
I’m starting to think that dear Paul is going to start getting some heat from his fellow realtors if he keeps giving us the numbers like this…

Having said that, if I ever do buy a north shore condo, he would be the first realtor I contact.

How come Paul (a realtor) is more honest than all these so-called journalists, and economists in this province?
38
blueskies Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
What’s the point of having a bust if it’s not going to be spectacular so that we will not have the appetite for another bubble for at least 25 years?

don’t worry, this is just getting started.
it will be both spectacular and profound….
think new paradigm….

given our Canadian demographics, who’s going to buy all this RE?
especially in the suburbs given our current energy problems.

long-term depreciating asset class….
“No bottom in sight” boomer mantra for the 00’s
39
-A- Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
After the crash, I also will call Paul B.
40
paulb Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Thanks for the support guys! I get a kick out of meeting the people behind the avatars.

Not once has anyone at my office said a peep to me. In general Realtors have no interest in my site. My site is local and although it has seen great growth, we are still small bananas.

I find change exciting and although I am nervous about the market correcting I feel it’s necessary for the greater good of the Vancouver housing market. Where we will be in two or three years is anyone’s guess, and could be shocking.
41
Anonymous Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
CBC is reporting a plunge in visitors to Canada:

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/05/2 … ml?ref=rss

So let’s recap. BC’s economy is based on:

1. Forestry
2. Construction
3. Tourism

Unless you count grow-ops, things aren’t looking too good for BC’s ability to sustain house prices.
42
blueskies Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
4. nail gun repair
5. pallet stacker
43
Strataman Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
The rich people don’t like Vancouver apparently….even in Canada!
http://tinyurl.com/4r2feq
44
JR Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Paul

Get your fruits right. That’s small potatos</i) not bananas. Just yanking your chain. There will always be sales no matter the condition of the market. Intelligent customers will seek out realistic, straight shooting realtors, particularly when the air starts to leak from this bubble. Your numbers and blog will pay you dividends so I hope that whatever happens you keep it up.
45
JR Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Clearly, I am html challenged. Italics were supposed to stop after “potatos”.
46
Anonymous Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
“Not once has anyone at my office said a peep to me. In general Realtors have no interest in my site.”

Paul,

Realtors may have no interest in your site, but many others do!!!

Thanks for providing the stats.

What does the GVREB think about you providing such detailed daily information in a very easy to read format? No spin - straight up numbers. I can’t see them being very thrilled about this.
47
rocker guy Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Rob A, you’re my hero - selling now while the going is still going in some way shape or form. Looks like you’re a reformed bull. My hat is off to you. Enjoy the suit and enjoy your new job in the big smoke while we wait with baited breath for the bottom to fall out here in rain town!
48
-A- Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
Hello Blue, I like the nail gun repair one, (I remember,that one)

But remember the real pro gun repairs are done only in the Valley.
49
umdesch4 Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Holy crap! I’m famous…or something. For the record, I have no qualms whatsoever about seeing this here.
50
-A- Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Rob A, now that you are leaving, will you tell us which of one of the dogs are you?

Newsflash, tqn, Rob, Realitycheck?

If you tell us I will tell you my current handle at the other blog.

Pages: [1] 2 3 » Show all comments newest first

Dapo: Islander, Get hypocritical much? Nice hate filled rant about, er, hate filled rants. Give your head a shake,...
betamax: Squiggly and bdk and patriotz: you’re economic illiterates at best and mentally ill at worst. Gee, that...
patriotz: the reality that economics does not discriminate by a buyer’s personal buying strategy Oh it...
Matt: Global Landlord, I’ve wondered the same thing on this blog and received an equivalent amount of emnity in...
patriotz: Flip not selling islander? A collapsing RE sector is exactly what BC needs. This province needs to get back...

Vancouver Condo Info

May 2008 mid-month inventory

128 Responses to “May 2008 mid-month inventory”

Welcome!

Recent Comments

BC blog links

charts and data

other provinces

rental listings

usa market

New Forum Posts

Recent Posts

Archives

META

RECENT POSTS