May 2008 mid-month inventory

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Umdesch4 posted this updated REBGV inventory chart this weekend, showing the dramatic listings activity we’re seeing this spring in Vancouver. That purple line shows how inventory is building beyond levels seen at any point in the last few years.

The monthly inventory graph comes from Paul Boenisch, who shares monthly inventory graphs for the entire REBGV and sub areas. This graph has been updated to the 15th of May based on the daily stats Paul makes available on his website. Pauls blog is here.

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VCI Admin
Admin

Thanks Umdesch4 and Paul! If either of you have an issue with me posting this here just let me know.

paulb
Member

Alarming isn't it? If in the coming weeks we no not buck the trend we are in for a rough ride.

franko
Member
franko

I can't think of a single item that could possibly affect price direction more than supply and demand, and I can't think of anything that could possibly influence supply and demand more than this wild inventory spike.

it's amazing that there are still some idiots out there looking to buy into this market.

Dosh
Guest
Dosh

I can’t think of a single item that could possibly affect price direction more than supply and demand

except people have been saying we're overbuilding for years and prices still go up. I expect we'll see a lot of sales this summer, at least now buyers have a lot to choose from.

BBY
Guest
BBY

Sales are low now because all those buyers have so much to choose from. So many more open houses to see than previous years. It takes time to see all those buzzing open houses. Yup, all the buzzing open houses that sound like this…

.

.

.

[crickets chirping]

.

.

.

There are fewer buyers now, Douche, er Dosh. They're not waiting to show up for the summer. It seems that sales are going down YOY and MOM. Why should they wait for summer?

Warren
Guest
Warren

Continued thanks to Paul for his good work. It should be an interesting spring/summer season. When will this hit the media, end of May maybe?

laffo
Guest
laffo

Either the cognitive dissonance of Vancouverite property market shills is overpowering to its victims or the rotten culture of Vancouver Stock Exchange penny stock promotion (read: lying) is still alive and well in all those who claim that the real estate market couldn't possibly deflate.

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

Vancouver… nothing but a two bit marshland of feces

VCI Admin
Admin

When will this hit the media, end of May maybe?

There will likely be some mention of this in the local papers after the end of May, offset by the usual suspects spin on how it represents more choice and a return to a balanced market. I suspect you won't see many articles putting too much focus on the big inventory increase and sales drop-off for at least a couple of months. If this trend continues it will be very hard to ignore and become trickier to spin.

sidelines
Guest
sidelines

That's right, Dosh, looking good for buyers.

Listings at levels not seen for years – what a sight, that graph! This, while the number of buyers (demand) doesn't appear to be following the same trend.

So, yes indeed, lots of supply (or choice, as you put it).

How does this square off with the idea some have that real estate prices can't go down in this city, that they will just keep going up, up, up?

When you have a big increase in supply and no similar increase in demand, what it is that happens again?

Warren
Guest
Warren

Speaking of spin, Bill Good will be hosting Garth Turner on his show tomorrow, some time between 9am and 12 noon on CKNW. Lets see what Booster-Bill can say in response to Garth's views. Turner isn't my favorite person, but at least he has a fairly objective view on the perils of RE.

VCI Admin
Admin

On a side note, can you guys lay off the krissh impersonations? I don't think we need the echo, but lets have a democratic experiment:

*edit* ok, message received, thanks! I've removed those comments, please keep it reasonably civilized folks.

aetakeo
Guest
aetakeo

Wow. Picture like that is worth a thousand words; it's reminiscent of the foothills of the price spike in VHB's old "you are here" graph for westside condos. The market's supply side a reflection of the demand, forward 6 years.

Rob A.
Guest
Rob A.

lol, you can add my condo in the heart of downtown to that list. I accepted a great job in Ontario so I called me agent today and told her that I am "very motivated" 🙂

First thing I am going to buy with my massive profits is a new Boss suit 😀

Drachen
Member

Dosh

"I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer, at least now buyers have a lot to choose from."

Isn't this almost word for word what David Liareh said when the US market was entering the same phase?

You're not fooling anyone here into buying Dosh, might as well take in the shingle, close out your office rental and join the unemployment line now to get in ahead of the crowd.

blueskies
Guest
blueskies

I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer

the heavy lifting season for sales is spring, not the summer doldrums.

what is now happening here is what happened in California 2 years ago. the ol' "Silent Spring" scenario.

scary enough is this is literally "word for word" what went down in '06 in California…… it is not different here and

it is not different this time…..

bdk
Guest
bdk

You're all wrong, increased supply and lack of qualified buyers means the market will go up more!

Rob A.:

Boss suits only cost $1200

Is that big money to you?

bdk
Guest
bdk

If you were to try to rent out your condo you'd be losing 2 Boss suits per month, same goes for any speculator out there trying to make money in the market by renting out a unit while awaiting gains in resale value.

That means 2 less suits to where to the cafe! where the action is!

read on
Guest
read on

hey now, lets not be too hard on Rob-A – afterall, he's just turned bear and is selling his condo.

if he was still a RE bull(****er), he'd be holiding onto it so he could make more profits while he moves to TO.

And to be honest, Boss suits are rather tacky.

Tony Danza
Member
Tony Danza

lol, you can add my condo in the heart of downtown to that list. I accepted a great job in Ontario so I called me agent today and told her that I am “very motivated”

Yet on Friday you were going out for "dinner on the patio" and then "snuggling with the GF" in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight.

bdk
Guest
bdk

Yet on Friday you were going out for “dinner on the patio” and then “snuggling with the GF” in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight.

Not only that the market was going to go up,up,up

What building are you in Rob A.?

I can see the listings before they hit the MLS

TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK
Guest
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK

"it’s amazing that there are still some idiots out there looking to buy into this market."

Not at all surprised, this is a bubble, and there will be idiots buying until the 11th hour and 59.99999 seconds.

TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK
Guest
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK

Looks like it may follow the Hong Kong pattern…prices drop a little, the last of the fools jump in, (2007 dead cat bounce) , then a few minor pick ups, and then the final nail…..50% drop

Rob A.
Guest
Rob A.

"Yet on Friday you were going out for “dinner on the patio” and then “snuggling with the GF” in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight."

And now it is Tuesday, what's your point?

I'm still bullish on real estate in beautiful downtown Vancouver. If you are into caffes and resturants it is the place to be.

But I don't want to hold onto a condo and rent it out while I am on the otherside of the country. Hopefully I can get this deal done before I go and reap the rewords of my intelligence, foresight, and courage!

Rob A.
Guest
Rob A.

And yes $1200 is a significant amount of money to me. I'm just an average guy trying to get ahead make some extra cash. I'm not a baller like you bdk.

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