May 2008 mid-month inventory
Umdesch4 posted this updated REBGV inventory chart this weekend, showing the dramatic listings activity we’re seeing this spring in Vancouver. That purple line shows how inventory is building beyond levels seen at any point in the last few years.
The monthly inventory graph comes from Paul Boenisch, who shares monthly inventory graphs for the entire REBGV and sub areas. This graph has been updated to the 15th of May based on the daily stats Paul makes available on his website. Pauls blog is here.
Vancouver Housing Bubble Has Finally Burst at Investing Intelligently Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
[...] levels are crazy…check out the mid-May 2008 inventory chart for the entire GVRD and the mid-May 2008 inventory chart for Vancouver [...]
June 14th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
… soon will spread to the downtown condos very soon… we need more head offices here in BC.
June 14th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Well, BC people say AB sucks. and BC's housing will rise because of the oceans and mountains… well BC has a much short lived boom and now a foreclosure starts in N.Van and Surrey. Where can people work in BC? either doing gov't job or killing pine beatles… or smoking pot in Nelson.
May 28th, 2008 at 10:36 am
GDub, these numbers come from the REBGV courtesy of realtor Paul Boenisch. They include MLS listings for SFH, condos and multifamily/land, but NOT presales / under construction.
1. All areas are contributing to the spike, but dramatic inventory increases are seen in Vancouver West and North Shore/ West Van.
2. Many large condo projects have completed in the last year or so, i.e. Spectrum, but many more are due for completion over the next few years.
I'm not sure on this, but I don't believe May 2008 saw a dramatic increase in new units completed over the last two years. There are certainly many more condos that will be coming on the market soon, these are not included in these figures yet.
It would be great to have the data broken down by # new / etc, but things like 'risky loans' tend not to be recognized until after the fact. I'm not sure thats a number you could ever reliably obtain. You can see the inventory growth by area on Pauls site, the end of May stats will be out soon.
May 27th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Hmm. There doesn't seem to be much discussion on where these numbers come from or what they mean economically. Over all the REGV it's about a 60% increase since Jan. Certainly significant. So questions that come to mind are:
1. Which areas are contributing to the spike?
2. Did large condo units just come up for sale in those areas? If that is the case, then a spike would be expected since sales will lag listing and might yet absorb those units. I see vancouver west has a large spike which could be due to presales activity at the olympic village.
3. Are these new units or resale units? I don't think new units don't mean as much in an immediate time frame. A spike in resale units might indicate a sell off is in progress which I think everyone here is assuming, but may not be true.
My thought is that if the increase is mainly new units, the market may absorb them and just need time. If that was the case can you make a reliable prediction based on data or do you have to wait and see? I would think that the higher the percentage of resale units the better the indicator of overall market momentum, which is what I think we'd all like an indicator of.
In fact a better question might even be, what is a leading indicator of a general market momentum and what qualifiers do you have to place on the data? Relevant factors probably include overall listings, new/used %, sales, % risky loans, % second owner/out of town owner and deltas for all those things. Would places that had a lot of speculative buying change the fastest? If so those might be the areas to watch.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:33 am
On prices…. I agree with blueskies.
Realtors are are motivated by commisison. Commisison is generated from A sales and B prices. So this is a simple optimization problem. Realtors want the prices to be as high as possible without significantly impacting the number of sales they can make. They do not follow the seller's or the buyer's best interest, instead they facilitate sales which is in their interest. Fair enough. If buyers aren't willing to pay the prices, realtors will suggest lower prices to the sellers. They will also try to talk a buyer up. A realtor does not benifit from having a listing that does not move or obtaining one commisison in the time they could have obtained three slightly lesser amounts. Certainly to keep sales moving some realtors will lie about market fundamentals, but sales people do that everywhere unfortunately. If you rely purely on the salesperson for appropriate advise and pricing information you are asking for trouble. In the end it is the buyers that set the prices. Cheap captial aided by modifications to lending practices allowed buyers to spend more (based purely on cash flow), which increased prices and fueled the speculative market. Add to this the fear of never being able to buy in, as prices steadily rise, along with serious hype by sales people and you have strong demand and a snowball effect. But the buyer is the enabler. Some of the bulls have timed it right and will have made good money off of others. That happens in every bull market. Sometimes its luck and sometimes skill. I just wish people were more rational, but both greed and fear are powerful motivators. Critical thinking and risk assessment are under valued and poorly taught skills.
Excellent graph by the way. It is perhaps, a definitive sign the market has finally initiated a correction. Upcoming data will be interesting. Is that 1.5 or 2 years after the US? I suppose that could be hard to measure. But that seems to be about how long it takes for US economic momentum to affect Canada.
May 25th, 2008 at 12:19 am
Full disclosure: I'm a Victoria realtor.
I spent the past five years telling my buyers there is no guarantee prices will go up and, in fact, I always reel off all the times in all the cities where prices have gone painfully down. I have yet to prevent anyone from buying who was determined to do so.
Probably not too many realtors in Victoria are telling their buyers that listings are up 17% and sales down 17% from same-month last year. But I do. Honest people will earn a living in any market.
Buyers, whether filled with fear or greed or a mixture of both, decide whether to buy. You might even elect to blame marketing hype, but I have yet to grab somebody's hand and force them to sign anything.
Instead of blaming your realtor, get a different one or deal with the sale process on your own or with a lawyer. That's your right. Nobody forces anybody to use a realtor.
Bring It On « Rural Aspirations Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 6:51 pm
[...] and, here in my city, the early signs that our overinflated real estate market may finally be heading for a correction. There’s even talk of hard times [...]
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:53 am
patriotz: "No, if there is no sale there is no price. Not a price of zero."
You say the job of a Realtor is to achieve maximum price for a property and I am saying that is true only if you include all possibilities from the Realtor's perspective, not the seller's. One of the possibilities for the Realtor is 0 in the context of a listing contract and this will maximise their return, not necessarily the seller's.
May 21st, 2008 at 6:36 pm
“The solid appreciations-largely due to the shared effects of resilient local economies, high immigration levels, and relatively low interest rates – all leading to enduring buyer demand”.-Barack Obama
What the hell does Barack Obama have to do with this? Also, have you checked the US housing market recently? Oh, yeah. Lots of buyer demand for houses!
May 21st, 2008 at 6:26 pm
The Realtor’s job is definitely to get the maximum price. One of the possible prices is zero if he makes no sale.
No, if there is no sale there is no price.
Not a price of zero.
May 21st, 2008 at 4:00 pm
I also read Freakonomics, I wonder if the crack dealers make as little on Hastings as they do in the Chicago projects.
But the one key thing to remember is that Chicago is in the U.S. it's different here, realtors in Vancouver are the best on Earth!
May 21st, 2008 at 3:58 pm
crabman, interesting. Seems reasonable there is a marginal benefit calculation going on as well. If the Realtor thinks spending another X hours will gross the seller an extra $YK, they would do it if it made sense economically. Therefore pushing the first lowball offer that comes along to the client is probably not on.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:55 pm
crabman, thanks for brining up that Freakonomics bit, I'd been meaning to do that myself.
That's why I think realtors will be the main force of downward pressure in the months ahead. Come on realtors, get to work!
May 21st, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Yet another ridiculous & incoherent rant from Krissh
Krissh=
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/viewtopic.php?t=…
May 21st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
The Realtor’s job is definitely to get the maximum price.
In the book "Freakonomics" they actually demonstrate that the main motivation for a realtor is to get the quickest sale. The incremental gain in commission isn't worth the extra time they might have to put in. A study in Chicago covering more than 100,000 houses found that realtors personal residences sell for 3% more, and are on the market 10 days longer than their clients properties.
May 21st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Drachen,
Welcome back,how was your vocations?did you make up your mind yet to buy or you too is trying to avoid buying because of the Spouses crisis. just to be wise man, turn the page from vhb or mohican etc.your wife will be glad that wise mens are at good work.
Don't you know?
three year back hadenough and mskid's husbands have shown them a link from retures.com and a post from vhb since than these ladies are hooked up here and their husbands are having bitch free life saying thanks to the side kicks.
as long as these realtors and their sidekicks are available on the net, wisemens can have relaxing life without having to buy anything or just keep on throwing stone on the strength of market.
Scullboy,Are you male or female why i may asking because my friend shows me an ad where some one begging for metal rod (massive)please verify the question?
May 21st, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Warning!! You are going to have graphing problems!
I learned a long time ago I couldn't plot milli-volts against kilo-volts. The previous years are going to be a straight line soon as listings are now KILO listings! 
May 21st, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Rob A. do you know what bullish means? If you were bullish you would not be selling your condo. Unless it was to buy something bigger in Vancouver.
I think what you meant to say is: "I am still bullshitting."
May 21st, 2008 at 2:31 pm
"I am advising all my friends and family to sell their Vancouver Real Estate holdings." – Bob Rennie (May 2008)
May 21st, 2008 at 2:24 pm
"Prices in Vancouver will go down a lot this year" – Bill Clinton
May 21st, 2008 at 2:08 pm
I love the smell of krrrish's brain roasting as it tries to assimilate what's happening.
May 21st, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Rob A
"It is a typo. I am bullish."
Another typo, you misplaced the i and missed the t.
May 21st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
patriotz: "The realtor’s job is to get the maximum possible price for the seller. Like any salesperson, he has a legal responsibility to correctly represent the facts about the property for sale. But not the “current market”, whatever that is."
The Realtor's job is definitely to get the maximum price. One of the possible prices is zero if he makes no sale. Don't think he won't pressure the seller to accept a lower offer if it means the property is in danger of re-listing under another agent or de-listing altogether.
It will be comical to see what Realtors will use as comparables in the "current market" when prices start dropping back to a sane level. Maybe just ignore any sales prices in the past 6 years? I'm sure the good ol' MLS database won't be worth much.
May 21st, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Nice graph, thanks to Paul, however, the graph doen't show the 60,000 condos that will soon be dumped into the market.
Anybody who thinks rent is cheap now, wait a while, it will get much cheaper.
May 21st, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Krrish
"“The solid appreciations-largely due to the shared effects of resilient local economies, high immigration levels, and relatively low interest rates – all leading to enduring buyer demand”.-Barack Obama"
Umm I doubt Obama said this. For one because I can't find a single place on the internet other than your assertion where this statement is connected to him. Secondly he's LITERATE.
This is worse than your usual crap Krrish, it's really stupid to just make up quotes from people. Especially since you don't know English properly and your fake quotes show the same errors in English that you have when talking as yourself.
May 21st, 2008 at 1:30 pm
BUY A HOME TO IMPRESS YOUR WIFE
bdk,
stop smoking in your balcony strata may be not able to kiss that clown but your wife can avoid french kiss
So you not going to buy hmm?you can't buy because your wife won't support your bills and monthly mortgage,do you know why? because you have been smoking in your balcony dummie!!!
"If you disrespect the statue of home owner, you can't be home owner ever in your life."-Tonail Dang-Za
May 21st, 2008 at 1:19 pm
What building is your unit in Rob A?