May 2008 mid-month inventory
Umdesch4 posted this updated REBGV inventory chart this weekend, showing the dramatic listings activity we’re seeing this spring in Vancouver. That purple line shows how inventory is building beyond levels seen at any point in the last few years.
The monthly inventory graph comes from Paul Boenisch, who shares monthly inventory graphs for the entire REBGV and sub areas. This graph has been updated to the 15th of May based on the daily stats Paul makes available on his website. Pauls blog is here.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:59 am 1
Thanks Umdesch4 and Paul! If either of you have an issue with me posting this here just let me know.
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:30 am 2
Alarming isn't it? If in the coming weeks we no not buck the trend we are in for a rough ride.
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:31 am 3
I can't think of a single item that could possibly affect price direction more than supply and demand, and I can't think of anything that could possibly influence supply and demand more than this wild inventory spike.
it's amazing that there are still some idiots out there looking to buy into this market.
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:12 am 4
I can’t think of a single item that could possibly affect price direction more than supply and demand
except people have been saying we're overbuilding for years and prices still go up. I expect we'll see a lot of sales this summer, at least now buyers have a lot to choose from.
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:25 am 5
Sales are low now because all those buyers have so much to choose from. So many more open houses to see than previous years. It takes time to see all those buzzing open houses. Yup, all the buzzing open houses that sound like this…
.
.
.
[crickets chirping]
.
.
.
There are fewer buyers now, Douche, er Dosh. They're not waiting to show up for the summer. It seems that sales are going down YOY and MOM. Why should they wait for summer?
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:37 am 6
Continued thanks to Paul for his good work. It should be an interesting spring/summer season. When will this hit the media, end of May maybe?
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:37 am 7
Either the cognitive dissonance of Vancouverite property market shills is overpowering to its victims or the rotten culture of Vancouver Stock Exchange penny stock promotion (read: lying) is still alive and well in all those who claim that the real estate market couldn't possibly deflate.
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:43 am 8
Vancouver… nothing but a two bit marshland of feces
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:52 am 9
When will this hit the media, end of May maybe?
There will likely be some mention of this in the local papers after the end of May, offset by the usual suspects spin on how it represents more choice and a return to a balanced market. I suspect you won't see many articles putting too much focus on the big inventory increase and sales drop-off for at least a couple of months. If this trend continues it will be very hard to ignore and become trickier to spin.
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:59 am 10
That's right, Dosh, looking good for buyers.
Listings at levels not seen for years – what a sight, that graph! This, while the number of buyers (demand) doesn't appear to be following the same trend.
So, yes indeed, lots of supply (or choice, as you put it).
How does this square off with the idea some have that real estate prices can't go down in this city, that they will just keep going up, up, up?
When you have a big increase in supply and no similar increase in demand, what it is that happens again?
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May 20th, 2008 at 11:00 am 11
Speaking of spin, Bill Good will be hosting Garth Turner on his show tomorrow, some time between 9am and 12 noon on CKNW. Lets see what Booster-Bill can say in response to Garth's views. Turner isn't my favorite person, but at least he has a fairly objective view on the perils of RE.
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May 20th, 2008 at 11:02 am 12
On a side note, can you guys lay off the krissh impersonations? I don't think we need the echo, but lets have a democratic experiment:
*edit* ok, message received, thanks! I've removed those comments, please keep it reasonably civilized folks.
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May 20th, 2008 at 11:17 am 13
Wow. Picture like that is worth a thousand words; it's reminiscent of the foothills of the price spike in VHB's old "you are here" graph for westside condos. The market's supply side a reflection of the demand, forward 6 years.
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May 20th, 2008 at 11:41 am 14
lol, you can add my condo in the heart of downtown to that list. I accepted a great job in Ontario so I called me agent today and told her that I am "very motivated"
First thing I am going to buy with my massive profits is a new Boss suit
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May 20th, 2008 at 11:50 am 15
Dosh
"I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer, at least now buyers have a lot to choose from."
Isn't this almost word for word what David Liareh said when the US market was entering the same phase?
You're not fooling anyone here into buying Dosh, might as well take in the shingle, close out your office rental and join the unemployment line now to get in ahead of the crowd.
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May 20th, 2008 at 11:56 am 16
I expect we’ll see a lot of sales this summer
the heavy lifting season for sales is spring, not the summer doldrums.
what is now happening here is what happened in California 2 years ago. the ol' "Silent Spring" scenario.
scary enough is this is literally "word for word" what went down in '06 in California…… it is not different here and
it is not different this time…..
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May 20th, 2008 at 12:20 pm 17
You're all wrong, increased supply and lack of qualified buyers means the market will go up more!
Rob A.:
Boss suits only cost $1200
Is that big money to you?
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May 20th, 2008 at 12:24 pm 18
If you were to try to rent out your condo you'd be losing 2 Boss suits per month, same goes for any speculator out there trying to make money in the market by renting out a unit while awaiting gains in resale value.
That means 2 less suits to where to the cafe! where the action is!
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May 20th, 2008 at 12:27 pm 19
hey now, lets not be too hard on Rob-A – afterall, he's just turned bear and is selling his condo.
if he was still a RE bull(****er), he'd be holiding onto it so he could make more profits while he moves to TO.
And to be honest, Boss suits are rather tacky.
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May 20th, 2008 at 12:52 pm 20
lol, you can add my condo in the heart of downtown to that list. I accepted a great job in Ontario so I called me agent today and told her that I am “very motivated”
Yet on Friday you were going out for "dinner on the patio" and then "snuggling with the GF" in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight.
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May 20th, 2008 at 12:57 pm 21
Yet on Friday you were going out for “dinner on the patio” and then “snuggling with the GF” in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight.
Not only that the market was going to go up,up,up
What building are you in Rob A.?
I can see the listings before they hit the MLS
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May 20th, 2008 at 1:43 pm 22
"it’s amazing that there are still some idiots out there looking to buy into this market."
Not at all surprised, this is a bubble, and there will be idiots buying until the 11th hour and 59.99999 seconds.
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May 20th, 2008 at 1:49 pm 23
Looks like it may follow the Hong Kong pattern…prices drop a little, the last of the fools jump in, (2007 dead cat bounce) , then a few minor pick ups, and then the final nail…..50% drop
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:00 pm 24
"Yet on Friday you were going out for “dinner on the patio” and then “snuggling with the GF” in your sky cell? Sure you got a job offer, riiight."
And now it is Tuesday, what's your point?
I'm still bullish on real estate in beautiful downtown Vancouver. If you are into caffes and resturants it is the place to be.
But I don't want to hold onto a condo and rent it out while I am on the otherside of the country. Hopefully I can get this deal done before I go and reap the rewords of my intelligence, foresight, and courage!
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:06 pm 25
And yes $1200 is a significant amount of money to me. I'm just an average guy trying to get ahead make some extra cash. I'm not a baller like you bdk.
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:10 pm 26
before I go and reap the rewords of my intelligence, foresight, and courage!
we'll judge that based on the metrics:
what did you pay for your unit?
when did you buy it?
what are you listing it for?
what are your closing costs/mortgage payout?
ps: you can pick up a Boss suit on consignment
for less than $250 if you are into tacky name brand stuff
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:14 pm 27
Many thumbs up (great new system BTW) to anyone who can find and track Rob A.'s condo sale. Does anybody know what he paid and when he bought?
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:25 pm 28
If Rob A gives up the address I'll post the purchase price and eventual selling price (if it even sells).
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:45 pm 29
I don't get it, how could $1200 be a lot of money for you? thats just the normal monthly 'ownership premium' you pay for a 1 bedroom apartment right now.
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:48 pm 30
And now it is Tuesday, what’s your point?
Who here has ever accepted a job offer (not including McDonald's or box stacking) over a long weekend?
In other words Rob A. I believe you are full of sh#t.
How will you ever survive without all the "caffes" and hip restaurants in TO? What about the "place to be"? Surprising how the bears come out of the woodwork once things slip a little.
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May 20th, 2008 at 2:51 pm 31
In other words Rob A. I believe you are full of sh#t.
How will you ever survive without all the “caffes” and hip restaurants in TO? What about the “place to be”? Surprising how the bears come out of the woodwork once things slip a little.
make that pseudo-bears seeing as how Rob A is a bull wannabe to start with….
there is nothing like finding religion when you are in the trenches and getting shot at…..
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May 20th, 2008 at 3:05 pm 32
lance, I guess you are just a big time baller if you think 1.2k is nothing. That's fine with me. Maybe when I get my profits from selling my condo I can be a bit like you too.
Oh, and I'm sure it will sell. I'm not interested in this dragging out.
I've priced it to move
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May 20th, 2008 at 3:06 pm 33
As I said before, I am still a bear. I am selling because my situation has changed. Onward and upward! I hope all of you enjoy being priced out forever!
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May 20th, 2008 at 3:15 pm 34
Are you saying it's listed already?
When did you sign the contract? Is it on the MLS already?
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May 20th, 2008 at 3:19 pm 35
"As I said before, I am still a bear."
I think you have that backwards.
I hope you like the taste of your Ikea furniture because you'll be eating it before winter.
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May 20th, 2008 at 4:12 pm 36
I sure hope the specuvestors don’t panic-just yet.
I prefer that they wait for next spring, while a few more thousand boxes and a few 10s of thousands of Mac Mansions get built.
What’s the point of having a bust if it’s not going to be spectacular so that we will not have the appetite for another bubble for at least 25 years?
If they pull the listings off the market, and prices don’t drop precipitously it will give the greater fools a wrong reading, and they will keep building and leveraging until the bottom falls out overnight.
I’d like that, MLS @36,000, the Olympic bills start to come in, the government make work projects winding down, some young couple/team economist/journalist take the RE Pimps to court as an experiment and are almost successful at a class action suit.
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May 20th, 2008 at 4:25 pm 37
I'm starting to think that dear Paul is going to start getting some heat from his fellow realtors if he keeps giving us the numbers like this…
Having said that, if I ever do buy a north shore condo, he would be the first realtor I contact.
How come Paul (a realtor) is more honest than all these so-called journalists, and economists in this province?
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May 20th, 2008 at 5:01 pm 38
What’s the point of having a bust if it’s not going to be spectacular so that we will not have the appetite for another bubble for at least 25 years?
don't worry, this is just getting started.
it will be both spectacular and profound….
think new paradigm….
given our Canadian demographics, who's going to buy all this RE?
especially in the suburbs given our current energy problems.
long-term depreciating asset class….
"No bottom in sight" boomer mantra for the 00's
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May 20th, 2008 at 5:16 pm 39
After the crash, I also will call Paul B.
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May 20th, 2008 at 5:35 pm 40
Thanks for the support guys! I get a kick out of meeting the people behind the avatars.
Not once has anyone at my office said a peep to me. In general Realtors have no interest in my site. My site is local and although it has seen great growth, we are still small bananas.
I find change exciting and although I am nervous about the market correcting I feel it's necessary for the greater good of the Vancouver housing market. Where we will be in two or three years is anyone’s guess, and could be shocking.
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:07 pm 41
CBC is reporting a plunge in visitors to Canada:
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/05/20/travel.h…
So let's recap. BC's economy is based on:
1. Forestry
2. Construction
3. Tourism
Unless you count grow-ops, things aren't looking too good for BC's ability to sustain house prices.
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:30 pm 42
4. nail gun repair
5. pallet stacker
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:38 pm 43
The rich people don't like Vancouver apparently….even in Canada!
http://tinyurl.com/4r2feq
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:46 pm 44
Paul
Get your fruits right. That's small potatos</i) not bananas. Just yanking your chain. There will always be sales no matter the condition of the market. Intelligent customers will seek out realistic, straight shooting realtors, particularly when the air starts to leak from this bubble. Your numbers and blog will pay you dividends so I hope that whatever happens you keep it up.
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:47 pm 45
Clearly, I am html challenged. Italics were supposed to stop after "potatos".
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:50 pm 46
"Not once has anyone at my office said a peep to me. In general Realtors have no interest in my site."
Paul,
Realtors may have no interest in your site, but many others do!!!
Thanks for providing the stats.
What does the GVREB think about you providing such detailed daily information in a very easy to read format? No spin – straight up numbers. I can't see them being very thrilled about this.
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:51 pm 47
Rob A, you're my hero – selling now while the going is still going in some way shape or form. Looks like you're a reformed bull. My hat is off to you. Enjoy the suit and enjoy your new job in the big smoke while we wait with baited breath for the bottom to fall out here in rain town!
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:53 pm 48
Hello Blue, I like the nail gun repair one, (I remember,that one)
But remember the real pro gun repairs are done only in the Valley.
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May 20th, 2008 at 6:57 pm 49
Holy crap! I'm famous…or something. For the record, I have no qualms whatsoever about seeing this here.
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May 20th, 2008 at 7:03 pm 50
Rob A, now that you are leaving, will you tell us which of one of the dogs are you?
Newsflash, tqn, Rob, Realitycheck?
If you tell us I will tell you my current handle at the other blog.
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May 20th, 2008 at 7:11 pm 51
Wha? Me worry?
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May 20th, 2008 at 7:12 pm 52
…oh and Paul, excellent to see you on here. Yes, your numbers and graphs are VERY valuable, and watched carefully by many of us. I hope you didn't have any issue with my extension of the data point, I just wanted to eyeball it for myself, and once I saw the result, it was a "picture worth 1000 words" that I wanted to share.
Cheers!
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May 20th, 2008 at 7:43 pm 53
-A-
i posted this over on robs' site
thought you might enjoy
the poetic moment
blueskies { 05.20.08 at 5:11 pm }
Biseroni:
Spinmeister 9000
don’t need no stinkin’ bio
read the bluebook dude
haiku for RE
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May 20th, 2008 at 8:17 pm 54
To The idiot in-charge,
those numbers are not your personal property, you can publish them but if you comment on them that makes you to call some one's whore you dum head.
"Congratulation North Vancouver Prices are up-some time ago"
To whom the fuck were you telling all that bs?
"Excellent North Vancouver +3%" what the fuck was that?
North Vancouver is 3% down oh now what to do?
Mother fucking Realtors like you and jeff stand for best filthy idiots on earth.Tell us….
What do you tell to your client as buyers?
what do you tell to your clients as sellers?
if you know the answer in your mind, you and jeff should figure out properly who the fuck you are? you fucking filthy idiot.Did you ever talk to your dad Cameron Muir about this I am sure you are registerd with some othername to the board.
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May 20th, 2008 at 8:19 pm 55
Clearly, I am html challenged. Italics were supposed to stop after “potatos”.
And I'm sure that you meant potatoes to be inside those italics.
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May 20th, 2008 at 8:27 pm 56
Soplist.
Correct. I meant "potatoes". I am also spelling challenged it appears. Now, with that out of the way, how might "Thums up2" acquire a brain? Seems he's had a frontal lobotomy.
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May 20th, 2008 at 8:29 pm 57
To The idiot in-charge……..SNIP…….othername to the board.
totally pissed bull
gotta luv it!
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May 20th, 2008 at 8:56 pm 58
Actually I do not think it's a bull. Reading between the lines I actually see an angry bear who is SO outraged he has diffculties stopping to spell check.
I think he did not notice that WE are on HIS side.
Relax, our angry friend, and tell us why you are growling…
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:06 pm 59
Blue, too funny!
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:11 pm 60
Unless you count grow-ops, things aren’t looking too good for BC’s ability to sustain house prices.
We also had a booming film industry based on the exchange rate making us a bargain, but there's talk of an upcoming screen actors guild strike that will put a dent in those incomes.
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:13 pm 61
Ari Telias,
I am talking about a snake with three faces who tells his buyer clients that "buying a house is a good investment" to sellers "selling a house is good"to bloggers "there is bubble in the market"
Isn't that makes him look like an idiot in mental disorder?
I can't digest this, bears may just feel happy about his views but in reality they also shouldn't be.
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:32 pm 62
Looks like Krissh/SATV phoned a realtor about his unsold condo and found out the market has crashed and now he's pissed and calling himself
" Thums up2"
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:33 pm 63
"Actually I do not think it’s a bull. Reading between the lines I actually see an angry bear who is SO outraged he has diffculties stopping to spell check.
I think he did not notice that WE are on HIS side."
Ummm…. No. Thumbsup is one of satv/krrish/etc's multiple personalities from a while back. he must be laying off the meds or something…
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:45 pm 64
multiple personalities from a while back. he must be laying off the meds or something…
parse the text
satv walks amongst us
smelt but not seen
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May 20th, 2008 at 9:48 pm 65
Hey Strata buddy,
Thanks for the link. I forgot about how popular Chester NS and Rothesay NB are for the truly rich. Like it or not, George Bush SR and the Irvings have places there. And Chester…. oh MAN the people who live there!
And who wouldn't? GLorious weather, beautiful scenery, the nicest people on earth, fabulous seafood and dirt cheap real estate! Posers can't live there because unfortunately there isn't a lot of work…. but if you already have tons of money that's not really an option.
I remember the nice people who moved next door to my grandmother in Cape Breton. TUrned out they were related to the Hapsburgs.
Hey Krrsh… I mean Thumbs…. why so upset? The fact is what's about to happen is completely based on hard reality and numbers. What the realtors say won't make a darn bit of difference. There is WAYYYYYY too much supply and noooooo demand at these prices.
The supply will not be consumed until the price falls…. and it'll fall even farther now that so much supply was drained out of the system by "innovative financial products" like the ol' 40 year mortgage.
So….. have some popcorn and a cocktail darling. THe show is about to begin. We had to sit through all the damn ads and we're juuuuuust about done the previews.
Whether the feature is a comedy or a horror all depends…
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May 20th, 2008 at 10:45 pm 66
A few weeks ago, I visited Victoria. I hadn't been there in years, and was very impressed. It made Vancouver look like hell. People there dress better, the streets are clean, and the buildings (even low-rent apartments) are well taken care of. Oh, the peace and quiet. And you could shopping downtown without in-your-face junkies everywhere.
Victoria also has infrastructure for tourists. You know, things you don't see in Vancouver, like taxi cabs.
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:38 am 67
Thums up2, I think Paul is simply posting the facts and providing an opportunity for people to post their opinions. As to what he is saying to his clients (buyers or sellers) I would hope they are over the age of 18 and capable of rational thought.
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May 21st, 2008 at 2:02 am 68
@Rob A
Rob, Boss suits are terrible value for the money you pay. You are paying for the brand name on a suit which is manufactured by the same machine that spits out no-name brands suits.
while i don't recommend Moores, there are many other brands that offer better value. You can buy a decent suit for less than $1000.
of course, if you have just made a "massive" profit on your condo, feel free to go out and waste it.
The world counts on consumer who don't care about getting a good deal.
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May 21st, 2008 at 5:25 am 69
Patiently,
I visit Victoria regularly, my dad lives there. Its got a worse homeless problem than Vancouver. I think you had your tourist glasses on. They want to open a needle exchange near my friend's apartment. Its all the same.
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May 21st, 2008 at 5:35 am 70
"Looks like Krissh/SATV phoned a realtor" Hey you guys have some sympathy,he's missing a lot of shift work at the warehouse what with having to meet his realtor and cancel and re-list every week!
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May 21st, 2008 at 5:46 am 71
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story….
Hehe, a licensed realtor drunk on a flight just released from Colorado jail and forced to pay back Alaskan Airlines $7,800 for having to land due to his behaviour! Too much punch perhaps?
Also, some of you guys spend too much time bickering with the likes of Rob A and others. If Rob makes a profit, good on him. Those that have money, don't need to try and brag about it. It actually comes off as being rather desperate. It's like they say: "those who can, do and those who can't, talk about it".
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May 21st, 2008 at 5:47 am 72
work at the warehouse
keeping in mind a pallet jack is NOT a sex toy
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May 21st, 2008 at 5:55 am 73
Blueskies:
A pallet jack is a sex toy for Krrish's mom…. I'm telling you that woman is icredible! Give her a show horn and a can of axle grease and a dashiki and she'll blow your mind!
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May 21st, 2008 at 7:26 am 74
A realtors job is not to tell you whether you should buy or sell, or predict the future. A realtors job is to make sure you have the facts about the current market and that you're walked through the process.
The housing bubble is not caused by realtors, it is caused by buyers.
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May 21st, 2008 at 7:32 am 75
Snark Says: +0
May 21st, 2008 at 7:26 am
A realtors job is not to tell you whether you should buy or sell, or predict the future. A realtors job is to make sure you have the facts about the current market
****
Oh yes, and I'm sure they are all doing a great job telling their clients about the current unsustainable market.
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May 21st, 2008 at 8:06 am 76
A realtor's job is to make a commission.
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May 21st, 2008 at 8:16 am 77
Who here is outraged over the fact that a car salesman is not there to benefit the buyer?
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May 21st, 2008 at 8:25 am 78
I really like the thumbs up and down. It makes the reading a lot easier. THANKS.
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May 21st, 2008 at 8:32 am 79
A realtors job is to make sure you have the facts about the current market and that you’re walked through the process.
Wrong. The realtor's job is to get the maximum possible price for the seller. Like any salesperson, he has a legal responsibility to correctly represent the facts about the property for sale. But not the "current market", whatever that is.
The housing bubble is not caused by realtors, it is caused by buyers.
Absolutely right.
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May 21st, 2008 at 8:54 am 80
Patriotz,
Wrong!!!!! The overprice of the market is caused by realitors. Both the seller's realitor and the buyer's realitor are paid based on the sale price. Higher the sale price, more the commission. Get this fact through your head.
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May 21st, 2008 at 9:01 am 81
Garth Turner is on the Bill Good show on CKNW right now – I just tuned in so haven't heard much of it, but seems pretty civilized so far. Turner was just talking about the way speculators are creating future rental market supply.
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May 21st, 2008 at 9:06 am 82
Jack, how effective would realtors be at driving prices higher without buyers? Like it or not, buyers hold all the cards – if they get foolish and excited, don't look at fundamentals and bid prices higher than they should, whose fault is that?
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May 21st, 2008 at 9:08 am 83
Just because buyers are foolish doesn't mean they aren't responsible.
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May 21st, 2008 at 9:08 am 84
Inflation Up & a Big Drop in Mortgage Rates.
So what's it going to take for mortgage rates to move up?
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May 21st, 2008 at 9:13 am 85
Caught some of the exchange on CKNW this morning. "Booster-Bill" (as Warren labels him) begins incredulously: some are saying real-estate prices will go down "even here"… "especially here!" comes back Garth emphatically.
Some amazement on the longetivity of Harper's government ensues till Bill comes back to comment on how after he built his home some years ago, his builder commented on how much more it would cost to build if he were to start then (prices of building materials have gone up). Garth replies things can change quickly…Rona profits are down 90%, Linen & Things has gone belly up and Home Depot is hurting.
Sadly, at that point my 15 minute commute was up and so was my access to the radio!
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May 21st, 2008 at 9:25 am 86
"It may be an indication that mortgage activity is slowing down."
fewer greater fools available to keep the party going….
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May 21st, 2008 at 9:44 am 87
Jack, if the realtor's controlled the market like you say, can you explain to me why all houses are not priced at $10,000,000,000,000?
That would be a pretty sweet commission.
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May 21st, 2008 at 9:52 am 88
buyers are the junkies
and realtors are the dealers or enablers
it takes two to tango
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May 21st, 2008 at 10:18 am 89
So what’s it going to take for mortgage rates to move up?
More important for the RE bulls around here: What's it going to take for sales to move up?
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May 21st, 2008 at 10:19 am 90
In reply to Jack: Both the seller’s realitor and the buyer’s realitor are paid based on the sale price. Higher the sale price, more the commission
That may well be, but during the sale of my Richmond townhouse, I was surprised how willing my agent and the buyer's agent were to reduce their commissions just to ensure the sale. I recall they settled on about half the approx. $13K commission that would normally have been split between them.
So, volume of sales is no doubt a consideration, or quite simply a bird in hand…
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May 21st, 2008 at 10:28 am 91
Higher the sale price, more the commission. Get this fact through your head.
You think I don't know that? What you don't seem to understand is that neither the realtor nor the seller determine the sales price. They can't make anyone buy the house.
The sales price is determined by the highest bid from a buyer.
The seller either accepts this, or there is no sale.
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May 21st, 2008 at 10:42 am 92
Blueskies
"buyers are the junkies
and realtors are the dealers or enablers
it takes two to tango"
Well, not really. Realtors exacerbate the problem no doubt but in this case the "drug" is available for purchase without a dealer. I really think they can only be partly blamed for the initial problem and for how long things have been going on. Also some individuals are sucked in by realtors. For example a friend of mine owns two condos right now and can barely pay the mortgages, her realtor who she swore was a close friend and had her best interests at heart is suddenly moving to Australia and has apparently sold off all their local holdings.
The biggest culprits in this I believe are the Banks/government for playing too fast and loose with the credit and the education system for not teaching proper critical thinking skills. The latter is the biggest difference I've noticed between Bulls and Bears. Bears mostly can create and defend a cohesive argument and spot the flaws in a bad argument. Bulls seem to have trouble connecting the dots, often give out irrelevant bits of information as if it were a solid argument and seem to be generally incapable of either understanding or creating a logical fact based argument.
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May 21st, 2008 at 10:46 am 93
I should add. The above statements about realtors does not reflect on ALL realtors.
There are good realtors who try to be honest and give a full picture to their clients.
The others may not have created this situation but they've certainly got no qualms about taking advantage. Something like war profiteers or old age homes that con pensioners out of their money.
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May 21st, 2008 at 11:27 am 94
Rob A said:
"I’m still bullish on real estate in beautiful downtown Vancouver."
"As I said before, I am still a bear."
Hrmm.. contradict yourself much?
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May 21st, 2008 at 11:59 am 95
At what point will sellers start competing with each other in the rush to the exits?
They already have….as indicated by the number of "reduced" and "new price" on existing listings or new listings at sharper pricing.
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:05 pm 96
COUNTINUE TO BUY AND SELL
People in need of their own homes,trade from large to small unit and small to large units,buyer who needs to change hands are buying and selling. there are lots of activities in the market lots of showing lots of selection sales are also picking up.
"The solid appreciations-largely due to the shared effects of resilient local economies, high immigration levels, and relatively low interest rates – all leading to enduring buyer demand".-Barack Obama
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:11 pm 97
HAHAHA Good one Krissh, is that why California's housing market is doing so well!? What about the rest of the U.S.?
Personally I don't want to lose $100,000 per unit per year and there are no greater fools out there looking to buy.
Yesterday you realized that you'd been lied to, why aren't you calling yourself thums up?
Did you reduce your asking price drastically and still can't find a buyer?
You won't find anyone here that is stupid enough to buy it.
It's like musical chairs and the musics stopped but you haven't figured it out and are in denial.
Read the childrens book "the Emperors new clothes"
It's a bit advanced for you but you might catch the basic points.
you're naked right now but don't know it.
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:15 pm 98
An emperor who cares too much about clothes hires two swindlers who promise him the finest suit of clothes from the most beautiful cloth. This cloth, they tell him, is invisible to anyone who was either stupid or unfit for his position. The Emperor cannot see the (non-existent) cloth, but pretends that he can for fear of appearing stupid; his ministers do the same. When the swindlers report that the suit is finished, they dress him in mime. The Emperor then goes on a procession through the capital show off his new "clothes". During the course of the procession, a small child cries out, "But he has nothing on!" The crowd realizes the child is telling the truth and begins laughing. The Emperor, however, holds his head high and continues the procession.
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:16 pm 99
Rob A said:
“I’m still bullish on real estate in beautiful downtown Vancouver.”
“As I said before, I am still a bear.”
Hrmm.. contradict yourself much?
It is a typo. I am bullish.
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:19 pm 100
What building is your unit in Rob A?
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:30 pm 101
BUY A HOME TO IMPRESS YOUR WIFE
bdk,
stop smoking in your balcony strata may be not able to kiss that clown but your wife can avoid french kiss
So you not going to buy hmm?you can't buy because your wife won't support your bills and monthly mortgage,do you know why? because you have been smoking in your balcony dummie!!!
"If you disrespect the statue of home owner, you can't be home owner ever in your life."-Tonail Dang-Za
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:31 pm 102
Krrish
"“The solid appreciations-largely due to the shared effects of resilient local economies, high immigration levels, and relatively low interest rates – all leading to enduring buyer demand”.-Barack Obama"
Umm I doubt Obama said this. For one because I can't find a single place on the internet other than your assertion where this statement is connected to him. Secondly he's LITERATE.
This is worse than your usual crap Krrish, it's really stupid to just make up quotes from people. Especially since you don't know English properly and your fake quotes show the same errors in English that you have when talking as yourself.
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:45 pm 103
Nice graph, thanks to Paul, however, the graph doen't show the 60,000 condos that will soon be dumped into the market.
Anybody who thinks rent is cheap now, wait a while, it will get much cheaper.
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:54 pm 104
patriotz: "The realtor’s job is to get the maximum possible price for the seller. Like any salesperson, he has a legal responsibility to correctly represent the facts about the property for sale. But not the “current market”, whatever that is."
The Realtor's job is definitely to get the maximum price. One of the possible prices is zero if he makes no sale. Don't think he won't pressure the seller to accept a lower offer if it means the property is in danger of re-listing under another agent or de-listing altogether.
It will be comical to see what Realtors will use as comparables in the "current market" when prices start dropping back to a sane level. Maybe just ignore any sales prices in the past 6 years? I'm sure the good ol' MLS database won't be worth much.
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May 21st, 2008 at 1:58 pm 105
Rob A
"It is a typo. I am bullish."
Another typo, you misplaced the i and missed the t.
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May 21st, 2008 at 2:08 pm 106
I love the smell of krrrish's brain roasting as it tries to assimilate what's happening.
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May 21st, 2008 at 2:24 pm 107
"Prices in Vancouver will go down a lot this year" – Bill Clinton
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May 21st, 2008 at 2:31 pm 108
"I am advising all my friends and family to sell their Vancouver Real Estate holdings." – Bob Rennie (May 2008)
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May 21st, 2008 at 2:34 pm 109
Rob A. do you know what bullish means? If you were bullish you would not be selling your condo. Unless it was to buy something bigger in Vancouver.
I think what you meant to say is: "I am still bullshitting."
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May 21st, 2008 at 2:38 pm 110
Warning!! You are going to have graphing problems!
I learned a long time ago I couldn't plot milli-volts against kilo-volts. The previous years are going to be a straight line soon as listings are now KILO listings! 
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May 21st, 2008 at 3:14 pm 111
Drachen,
Welcome back,how was your vocations?did you make up your mind yet to buy or you too is trying to avoid buying because of the Spouses crisis. just to be wise man, turn the page from vhb or mohican etc.your wife will be glad that wise mens are at good work.
Don't you know?
three year back hadenough and mskid's husbands have shown them a link from retures.com and a post from vhb since than these ladies are hooked up here and their husbands are having bitch free life saying thanks to the side kicks.
as long as these realtors and their sidekicks are available on the net, wisemens can have relaxing life without having to buy anything or just keep on throwing stone on the strength of market.
Scullboy,Are you male or female why i may asking because my friend shows me an ad where some one begging for metal rod (massive)please verify the question?
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May 21st, 2008 at 3:14 pm 112
The Realtor’s job is definitely to get the maximum price.
In the book "Freakonomics" they actually demonstrate that the main motivation for a realtor is to get the quickest sale. The incremental gain in commission isn't worth the extra time they might have to put in. A study in Chicago covering more than 100,000 houses found that realtors personal residences sell for 3% more, and are on the market 10 days longer than their clients properties.
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May 21st, 2008 at 3:42 pm 113
Yet another ridiculous & incoherent rant from Krissh
Krissh=
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/viewtopic.php?t=…
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May 21st, 2008 at 3:55 pm 114
crabman, thanks for brining up that Freakonomics bit, I'd been meaning to do that myself.
That's why I think realtors will be the main force of downward pressure in the months ahead. Come on realtors, get to work!
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May 21st, 2008 at 3:58 pm 115
crabman, interesting. Seems reasonable there is a marginal benefit calculation going on as well. If the Realtor thinks spending another X hours will gross the seller an extra $YK, they would do it if it made sense economically. Therefore pushing the first lowball offer that comes along to the client is probably not on.
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May 21st, 2008 at 4:00 pm 116
I also read Freakonomics, I wonder if the crack dealers make as little on Hastings as they do in the Chicago projects.
But the one key thing to remember is that Chicago is in the U.S. it's different here, realtors in Vancouver are the best on Earth!
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May 21st, 2008 at 6:26 pm 117
The Realtor’s job is definitely to get the maximum price. One of the possible prices is zero if he makes no sale.
No, if there is no sale there is no price.
Not a price of zero.
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May 21st, 2008 at 6:36 pm 118
“The solid appreciations-largely due to the shared effects of resilient local economies, high immigration levels, and relatively low interest rates – all leading to enduring buyer demand”.-Barack Obama
What the hell does Barack Obama have to do with this? Also, have you checked the US housing market recently? Oh, yeah. Lots of buyer demand for houses!
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May 21st, 2008 at 11:50 am 119
[...] At what point will sellers start competing with each other in the rush to the exits? This from Drachen at Vancouver Condo Info May 21st, 2008 at 10:42 am [...]
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May 22nd, 2008 at 12:53 am 120
patriotz: "No, if there is no sale there is no price. Not a price of zero."
You say the job of a Realtor is to achieve maximum price for a property and I am saying that is true only if you include all possibilities from the Realtor's perspective, not the seller's. One of the possibilities for the Realtor is 0 in the context of a listing contract and this will maximise their return, not necessarily the seller's.
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May 22nd, 2008 at 6:51 pm 121
[...] and, here in my city, the early signs that our overinflated real estate market may finally be heading for a correction. There’s even talk of hard times [...]
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May 25th, 2008 at 12:19 am 122
Full disclosure: I'm a Victoria realtor.
I spent the past five years telling my buyers there is no guarantee prices will go up and, in fact, I always reel off all the times in all the cities where prices have gone painfully down. I have yet to prevent anyone from buying who was determined to do so.
Probably not too many realtors in Victoria are telling their buyers that listings are up 17% and sales down 17% from same-month last year. But I do. Honest people will earn a living in any market.
Buyers, whether filled with fear or greed or a mixture of both, decide whether to buy. You might even elect to blame marketing hype, but I have yet to grab somebody's hand and force them to sign anything.
Instead of blaming your realtor, get a different one or deal with the sale process on your own or with a lawyer. That's your right. Nobody forces anybody to use a realtor.
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May 27th, 2008 at 11:33 am 123
On prices…. I agree with blueskies.
Realtors are are motivated by commisison. Commisison is generated from A sales and B prices. So this is a simple optimization problem. Realtors want the prices to be as high as possible without significantly impacting the number of sales they can make. They do not follow the seller's or the buyer's best interest, instead they facilitate sales which is in their interest. Fair enough. If buyers aren't willing to pay the prices, realtors will suggest lower prices to the sellers. They will also try to talk a buyer up. A realtor does not benifit from having a listing that does not move or obtaining one commisison in the time they could have obtained three slightly lesser amounts. Certainly to keep sales moving some realtors will lie about market fundamentals, but sales people do that everywhere unfortunately. If you rely purely on the salesperson for appropriate advise and pricing information you are asking for trouble. In the end it is the buyers that set the prices. Cheap captial aided by modifications to lending practices allowed buyers to spend more (based purely on cash flow), which increased prices and fueled the speculative market. Add to this the fear of never being able to buy in, as prices steadily rise, along with serious hype by sales people and you have strong demand and a snowball effect. But the buyer is the enabler. Some of the bulls have timed it right and will have made good money off of others. That happens in every bull market. Sometimes its luck and sometimes skill. I just wish people were more rational, but both greed and fear are powerful motivators. Critical thinking and risk assessment are under valued and poorly taught skills.
Excellent graph by the way. It is perhaps, a definitive sign the market has finally initiated a correction. Upcoming data will be interesting. Is that 1.5 or 2 years after the US? I suppose that could be hard to measure. But that seems to be about how long it takes for US economic momentum to affect Canada.
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May 27th, 2008 at 12:36 pm 124
Hmm. There doesn't seem to be much discussion on where these numbers come from or what they mean economically. Over all the REGV it's about a 60% increase since Jan. Certainly significant. So questions that come to mind are:
1. Which areas are contributing to the spike?
2. Did large condo units just come up for sale in those areas? If that is the case, then a spike would be expected since sales will lag listing and might yet absorb those units. I see vancouver west has a large spike which could be due to presales activity at the olympic village.
3. Are these new units or resale units? I don't think new units don't mean as much in an immediate time frame. A spike in resale units might indicate a sell off is in progress which I think everyone here is assuming, but may not be true.
My thought is that if the increase is mainly new units, the market may absorb them and just need time. If that was the case can you make a reliable prediction based on data or do you have to wait and see? I would think that the higher the percentage of resale units the better the indicator of overall market momentum, which is what I think we'd all like an indicator of.
In fact a better question might even be, what is a leading indicator of a general market momentum and what qualifiers do you have to place on the data? Relevant factors probably include overall listings, new/used %, sales, % risky loans, % second owner/out of town owner and deltas for all those things. Would places that had a lot of speculative buying change the fastest? If so those might be the areas to watch.
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May 28th, 2008 at 10:36 am 125
GDub, these numbers come from the REBGV courtesy of realtor Paul Boenisch. They include MLS listings for SFH, condos and multifamily/land, but NOT presales / under construction.
1. All areas are contributing to the spike, but dramatic inventory increases are seen in Vancouver West and North Shore/ West Van.
2. Many large condo projects have completed in the last year or so, i.e. Spectrum, but many more are due for completion over the next few years.
I'm not sure on this, but I don't believe May 2008 saw a dramatic increase in new units completed over the last two years. There are certainly many more condos that will be coming on the market soon, these are not included in these figures yet.
It would be great to have the data broken down by # new / etc, but things like 'risky loans' tend not to be recognized until after the fact. I'm not sure thats a number you could ever reliably obtain. You can see the inventory growth by area on Pauls site, the end of May stats will be out soon.
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June 14th, 2008 at 7:06 pm 126
Well, BC people say AB sucks. and BC's housing will rise because of the oceans and mountains… well BC has a much short lived boom and now a foreclosure starts in N.Van and Surrey. Where can people work in BC? either doing gov't job or killing pine beatles… or smoking pot in Nelson.
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June 14th, 2008 at 7:08 pm 127
… soon will spread to the downtown condos very soon… we need more head offices here in BC.
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June 17th, 2008 at 10:08 pm 128
[...] levels are crazy…check out the mid-May 2008 inventory chart for the entire GVRD and the mid-May 2008 inventory chart for Vancouver [...]
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