Foreclosures double as market cools
A couple of economic bad news stories posted by Via on this weekends Friday Free-for-all post: The spring selling season so far has us looking at a very different market from previous years. Sales have dropped and inventory has risen dramatically, at the beginning of June we’re looking at close to 18,000 listings for sale in Vancouver. As it becomes harder to sell the number of foreclosures have doubled in the lower mainland:
Kap Hiroti, who tracks Lower Mainland foreclosures at ForeclosureList.ca, says foreclosures stand at 20 per week, up from 10 per week in 2006.
“For one reason or another, they didn’t pay the mortgage, or insurance, or property tax,” says Hiroti, who advises real estate owners looking to foreclose or prospective buyers looking to buy a foreclosed property. “Or they get behind in their strata or condo fees, or face a one-time cost such as a roof or a leaky condo, which might set them back 40, 50 or 60 thousand dollars.”
…
Hiroti believes the Lower Mainland real-estate market has “flatlined,” meaning investors who were counting on making a profit no longer see an upside.
As a result, some have chosen to lose their investments through foreclosure rather than hanging on with no sign of a significant upside return.
“They were kind of speculating that the market would go up, but when the market flatlines, some people just choose to get out. Local people are getting priced out of the market.”
At the same time BCs unemployment rate has been creeping up – the jobless rate is now at 4.5% as positions are lost in trade, transportation and agriculture. The unemployment rate is particularly high for young people at 8.8% and for recent immigrants with an unemployment rate of 9.8%.
The bright point in the jobs data remains construction which has been the key driver in the BC jobs market for the last 5 years. The question is: how long can you have a jobs market driven by construction?
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umdesch4 Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
But of course, the article ends with that same quote we’ve been seeing ad-nauseum:
“Observers say a U.S.-style housing market collapse here is unlikely, thanks to Vancouver’s healthy job market, population growth and a location constrained by mountains, ocean and the U.S. border.”
What is wrong with people???
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Potato Hat Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
One nugget that keeps coming up in the “everything’s allright” stories that seem to be floating around these days is how Canadian banks didn’t relax their mortgage standards as much as American banks did. Which is true, if you ignore 40 year am’s, <5% down payments, and the blossoming mortgage broker industry.
But even aside from that, remember that the problems in the US mortgage market didn’t really reveal themselves until house prices dipped for a year or so. Any of those “lax” mortgagees that got in trouble cold simply sell or refinance their way out of it – a door that was slammed shut once prices started to drop.
It will be really interesting to see what a year of flat or sinking prices reveals about the state of Canadian mortgage underwriting.
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jesse Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
“Observers say a U.S.-style housing market collapse here is unlikely, thanks to Vancouver’s healthy job market…”
Healthy job market? How many Realtors earning 25% less commission than last year does it take to screw in a light bulb?
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betamax Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
“Observers say a U.S.-style housing market collapse here is unlikely, thanks to Vancouver’s healthy job market, population growth and a location constrained by mountains, ocean and the U.S. border.”
Thanks for the belly laugh on a rainy Monday afternoon.
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blueskies Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
umm you’ll notice they didn’t mention the “olympics”…..
oversight?
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beatstreet Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
In June 2000, the Canadian stock market was climbing even as the US market was tanking. Therefore, I am not surprised that the Canadian RE market is lagging the US.
We’ll see what happens over the summer, especially if mortgage rates have hit bottom, which I expect they have.
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Peak Debt 7 Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
So sad Sam Sullivan won’t be our mayor, he did so much for affordable housing for working families. No wait, the guy did nothing, and I hope I haven’t infringed on any of his copywrights.
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richard Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
“We’ll see what happens over the summer, especially if mortgage rates have hit bottom, which I expect they have.”
i think the BOC is cutting interest rates again tomorrow.
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canrocks Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
i think the BOC is cutting interest rates again tomorrow.
So they might but it doesen’t mean that the banks will follow
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Big Crash Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Hey Bulls, so the two weeks of 2010 Olympics will save the day eh by bringing people to see our beautiful Vancouver and urge them to invest in them houses and condos…
Ha, ha, ha!!!!
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blueskies Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Hey Bulls, so the two weeks of 2010 Olympics will save the day eh by bringing people to see our beautiful Vancouver and urge them to invest in them houses and condos…
hope springs eternal….
you can rent them your home for $25K for 2 weeks and sell them a $500K condo on their way out of town….
talk about your win-win situation
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beatstreet Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
i think the BOC is cutting interest rates again tomorrow
Yes I expect so too (although the wisdom of such a move is questionable). So variable rates will probably hit bottom this week. Meanwhile, the longer end is being challenged already.
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Vansanity Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
The question is: how long can you have a jobs market driven by construction?
The short answer is obvious. The mega projects should all be complete by end of 2009… I assume many of the condo projects that are currently being built will try to wrap up by then as well. Then what?
I’m really starting to look forward to 2010… not for the Winter Olympics but for the reality check people are in for…oh and this other little event happening… the World Cup in South Africa. Wonder if they’re hyping Johannesburg as the best place on earth just yet?? T.I.A.
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Big Crash Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
I had a heated discussion with a co-worker this afternoon. His theory is simple: investment in RE can never go wrong, 25 years from now he will reap the gain… I give up, there are too many naive home buyers in Vancouver. So go ahead people, buy, buy, buy!!!
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Big Crash Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
If you haven’t paid up your mortgage, DO NOT CALL YOURSELF A HOME-OWNER YET. Instead, call yourself a MORTGAGE OWNER.
Fair enough?
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bcubbins Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
The Globe and Mail has an article about young condo buyers:
Eager to enter the market
Sadly, the same individual was quoted as making both of these statements, with no indication of irony:
“I don’t buy anything,” he says, “unless I have the money to pay for it.”
“I’m working on paying off the down payment now, and if the building’s closing were delayed, that could even be a blessing.”
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Thums up2 Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Hey every one get in right away!foreclosures are not big deal because tax and deaths are confirm so does tragedies happen in all aspect of life.some cars get total lost some can get repaired,lots of injuries happen some can sustain some can’t but SHOW MUST GO ON to keep the life going.
“when there is a bank ruptcy in our life it doesn’t matter if we are home owners or tenents anybody can pass out anywhere”-Thums up2
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cheapskate Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
From daily telegraph:
House sales fall worst in 30 years
“The drought in housing transactions is starting to cause substantial problems for the economy, the RICS warns, as estate agents, lawyers, mortgage brokers and removal men suffer their quietest period in a generation.
Even during the depths of the housing crash in 1991, agents sold 26 properties in any three-month period – almost 50 per cent higher than last month’s figure.”
Also a new word for me: GAZUNDER – the controversial practice of buyers dropping their offer price after they have agreed to purchase…
Does anyone know how much of the UK drop is driven by foreclosure?
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Potato Hat Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Re: Big Crash
To be fair, if his time horizon is truly 25 years, he will reap a gain, even if he buys at today’s prices.
He’d probably make a larger gain if he waited a few years before buying, but 25 years out is a long time for house prices to correct, stabilize and resume a normal and saner upwards progression.
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tokyob Says:
June 9th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
when the winter olympics come to vancouver and it is raining everyday..as it does in vancouver..grey dark rain….yeah everyone is gonna wanna move to vancouver–that world class center–gimme a break…
world class centers (paris, london, tokyo) get the summer games…
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patriotz Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:01 am
Um yeah, but he is also paying carrying costs on the property, i.e. interest, taxes, maintenance, etc.
Which will exceed the rental value far into the future.
If the compounded accumulated deficit exceeds the gain at the time of sale, you’ve lost money.
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Anonymous Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:35 am
Big Crash,
Your co-worker’s a moron. He wants to wait 25yrs to realize a gain in his investment?
Does he know the definition of opportunity cost?
Tell him I’ve got a bag of magic beans to trade him for his cow.
You might as well not bother wasting your time with that discussion.
Talk about Euro 2008 instead.
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patriotz Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:09 am
Tell him I’ve got a bag of magic beans to trade him for his cow.
Better yet, ask to borrow $1000 from him and tell him you’ll pay him back $1100 in 25 years.
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alexcanuck Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 6:48 am
Canada Unexpectedly Keeps Rate Unchanged on Inflation (Update1)
By Greg Quinn
June 10 (Bloomberg) — The Bank of Canada unexpectedly kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on concerns energy costs may push inflation past the top of its target band later this year.
http://tinyurl.com/6lbx4a
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 7:04 am
The Bank of Canada unexpectedly kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged
unexpectedly?!
with the attention being paid to inflationary forces this move should not have been a surprise to anyone paying attention…. more of the same to follow
any bulls find that their coffee didn’t taste so good this AM?
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 7:09 am
also a note on the “olympics”:
at the current rate of airline companies going out of business due to energy costs, will there be any planes flying in 2010?
methinks the 2010 olympics will be more of an HDTV venue than a travel opportunity for the masses….
now where did i put that remote?
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alexcanuck Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 8:12 am
Blueskies;
I didn’t say “unexpected”, just quoted it.
And all those pundits who didn’t “expect” much of the credit crunch have all the credibility of an illiterate housing bull on this blog, to me anyway.
They still are the ones that get quoted, though! Could it be the MSM doesn’t have our best interests at heart? Say it ain’t so, my faith is shattered, I tell ya, my belief system is crumbling as I type.
I’m going to rush out and buy 10 presales, do my patriotic duty to save the speculators! Or maybe not.
28 X Foreclosures up in BC « mtippett Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 8:18 am
[...] Source: vancouvercondo.info [...]
29 X Foreclosures up in BC » BlockGarden.com Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 8:19 am
[...] vancouvercondo.info via [...]
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Dosh Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 8:28 am
I don’t get it umdesch4, you said you were in the process of buying a house right now, why are you talking the market down?
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fiscal responsibility Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 8:34 am
“when there is a bank ruptcy in our life it doesn’t matter if we are home owners or tenents anybody can pass out anywhere”
You’re an idiot. Bankruptcy happens because you spend more than you earn. It happens because you’re bad with money, live off credit and dig yourself deep into debt. Yes, temporary setbacks happen, thats why you plan for them and make sure you have emergency savings.
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Tony Danza Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:00 am
To be fair, if his time horizon is truly 25 years, he will reap a gain, even if he buys at today’s prices.
OMG you’re so prescient! Now get out there and buy, buy, buy!!
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Thums up2 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:03 am
“Yes, temporary setbacks happen, thats why you plan for them and make sure you have emergency savings.”
You fucking idiot how many months of payment you need to stop to send foreclosures,Foreclosures are un predicted otherwise how do you go to buy?Simply by keeping in mind things will be alright according to current situation.I am low income earner but i have 155% gain on my principle residence,133 percent on my sfh and 45% down plus 35 percent gain on my 3 future investment I can go bank rupt tomorrow or never because of my income the gain you have notice is a gold or garbage in a seconds.
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Tony Danza Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:09 am
I don’t get it umdesch4, you said you were in the process of buying a house right now, why are you talking the market down?
Yeah umdesch! You’re single handedly bringing down this house of cards, shame on you.
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Tony Danza Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:11 am
I am low income earner but i have 155% gain on my principle residence,133 percent on my sfh and 45% down plus 35 percent gain on my 3 future investment
Yep no subprime in Canada. Warehouse workers mortgaged to the hilt on five properties, nothing to see here folks. Umdesch, quit talking down the market!
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Tony Danza Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:14 am
And Thumbs/SAtv, just to clarify for you: fucking idiot = warehouse worker with mortgages on five properties in one of the biggest bubble markets in history.
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Thums up2 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Tony,
You are a biggest loser of all time, ain’t you are an americas bitch -in your own words? you dum head “life is by chance anything can happen any time so it doesn’t matter where you are you won’t be sitting there for so long”-Got It.
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Sold2Soon Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:43 am
cheapskate Says:
…Also a new word for me: GAZUNDER – the controversial practice of buyers dropping their offer price after they have agreed to purchase…
The practice of gazundering has returned courtesy of a buyer’s market, but during the boom, most likely the opposite practice of “gazumping“, where the refusal to sell a property sale at an agreed price in order to entertain a higher offer, would have held sway. It is due to these practices that England and Wales launched NLIS to facilitate conveyancing and consequently expedite the home-buying process so that there would be less opportunity for gazunderings and gazumpings that plagued real-estate transactions.
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umdesch4 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Dosh, yes, I just bought a house last week, and I think I got a reasonable deal…but then again, it was in Pitt Meadows, and it was bought with the intent to live in it for several years, in a situation where renting would have been difficult (mainly because there’s so many animals moving in, we may even have to get the property re-zoned as a freakin’ zoo!)
I’m not talking the market down, so much as watching what’s going on, and seeing a huge disconnect between reality and what all these “puff-piece” articles are saying. Even a critical one like the one pointed to in this entry ends with a “but it won’t happen here” happy ending.
I wouldn’t advise anyone to buy anything right now, unless they had a real reason, weren’t looking at the investment side of it so much, and shop *very* carefully.
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Anonymous Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 10:17 am
we are over 18000 in the GVRD WOW!!
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Bubble Lad Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Can someone explain condo fees to me? (I’m serious) – if there are fewer people in the condo, does that “40, 50, or 60K” that makes up your piece of the pie for the roof repair go up? If so, that doesn’t bode well for the people who are stuck waiting to unload, as I’m also assuming that whoever buys it off them is then in turn responsible for that chunk of cash.
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Bubble Lad Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Wouldn’t it just be easier for everyone involved if they trained a parrot to say the last paragraph in the article?
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patriotz Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 10:42 am
methinks the 2010 olympics will be more of an HDTV venue than a travel opportunity for the masses
Travel opportunity for the masses? No one is pretending that the 2010 games will be anything other than a party for the rich, as always. Do a little research on ticket prices for events that people actually want to see (as opposed to stuff like biathlon).
The risk is not that people won’t come for the Olympics – the rich are with us always – but the promised spinoffs that depend on middle-class discretionary income won’t happen. Based on what’s happening south of the border, that risk is getting bigger all the time.
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Drachen Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Bubble Lad
“if there are fewer people in the condo, does that “40, 50, or 60K” that makes up your piece of the pie for the roof repair go up?”
Apparently not because *somebody* must own.
However I suspect that most developers have a clause in the contract that says unsold condos do not pay a share of the fees if the developer still holds ownership. This has become a huge problem in Miami where some buildings are only half sold. There was an article posted on here about the problem a few months back, apparently most banks will not even entertain the thought of giving a mortgage to someone who wants to buy in one of these places.
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Brittanny Spears Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Thums up2 – We are only here to help you. You should sell now before all your gains are lost.You will thank us later.
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Rob A. Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
lmao, all bearishness of this reminds me of June 2007
Vancouver is a great place to live, especially downtown. There is so much to do in terms of resturants and cafes. People in the know realize that it’s the place to be. That isn’t going to change any time soon.
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beatstreet Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Vancouver is a great place to live, especially downtown.
Well it certainly is not a great place to do business. We just got our property tax notice from our landlord…up 9%! For what? The Olympic clock?
..and we are in a building that is well over 20 years old.
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moonman Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Hello everyone, I hope this is the right place to ask, I’m looking for advice on where to buy in in the lower mainland. I will be moving to Vancouver from the moon in the next couple of months and I will be bringing several wheel-barrows filled with moon-gold (roughly $18 gazillion CAD). Will this be enough to buy a small condo in Vancouver and if so what neighborhood would you recommend? I’m hearing good things about the downtown eastside.
I will be bringing my wife, her sister and uncle, my godfather and our 17 moon-children so we’ll need a large space (bare minimum 348 sq feet). Also being close to cafes and restaurants is important because I hear that Vancouver is a city that has those. Any recommendations?
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jesse Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
“People in the know realize that it’s the place to be.”
Unfortunate that there are so few people “in the know” because if there were you would not see sales falling and inventory rising. I’m sure it will remain “the place to be” — though for 40% lower than today’s asking prices.
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Van-zee Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Rob -A
You speak of the great Cafes in the downtown, which ones do you feel are great?
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Bubble Lad Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Drachen,
Thanks for the reply. I was wondering more about if people start trying to unload their condo in a building when they start to get cold feet (basically speculators). So if a building is 100% owned and you get a bill for 20K, if the building suddenly drops to 50 % occupancy does that mean your share doubles? If your condo goes to default doesn’t that mean that technically the bank owns it? Do they pay the fees Sorry if these questions seem self evident.
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bdk Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Rob A works at starbucks which is why he always rambles about the cafe. That or it’s a spam bot as it’s never said anything relevant plus it thinks vancouver has action.
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Bankerman Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
I was shocked to see all the houses for sale on Pt. Grey road, Golden Mile? Celebrity foreclosures on the way to Vancouver? Seemed like 1 out of every 3 houses had the big sign.
Greatest place on earth! The centre of the universe for foreclosures will be Vancouver’s new title.
Trust me, there will be parliamentary hearings into mortgage foreclosure fraud based out of Vancouver when BC real estate market cap plunges in the vicinity of $300 billion. Rise in house prices fueled the economy via refinance rather than dividends from wealth creation corporations. Nothing more than a credit asset boom fraud based on zero to low down mortgages, 40 year ammortization, low interest rates, shaky underwriting.
It is the debt baby!
Canadian banking system will be vulnerable.
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bdk Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
If rich immigrants visiting during the Olympics are going to save Vancouver then why has Las Vegas crashed?
Las Vegas is where the rich people go for action and they have everything you want there.
Secondly how could L.A. crash if they had the OLYMPICS and high paying jobs PLUS action and nice weather. L.A. has cafe’s and rich immigrants know this!
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
People in the know realize that it’s the place to be. That isn’t going to change any time soon.
rob a : i agree with you that’s why we are renting in YT.
great restaurants and coffee shops!
I highly recommend Coo Coo Coffee at 477 Davie St.
World’s best Americano….
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Who Knows... Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
And nothing makes your coffee taste better than knowing that you just bought a 500sq ft condo for $400,000, eh Rob A? Come on everyone, let’s all buy in!
Good call on renting blueskies!!
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boris Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
LA & Vegas had a housing market crash because what people REALLY want is gray rainy weather in June!
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Drachen Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Bubble Lad
“if the building suddenly drops to 50 % occupancy does that mean your share doubles? If your condo goes to default doesn’t that mean that technically the bank owns it?”
The owner pays the fees. If the owner doesn’t pay the fees then the unpaid amount will be billed to the next owner. I guess that’s a good thing to think about if you’re buying off of Rob A or someone like him who’s desperate, check to see if there is an outstanding balance on strata fees and such.
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Drachen Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Rob A.
“all bearishness of this reminds me of June 2007 [sic]”
We were right in 2007 and we’re right now.
If, at 3 in the morning I predict that the sun will rise eventually I am not wrong at 3:30, nor am I wrong at 4:00. Just because something hasn’t happened yet does not mean it won’t happen.
My three year old understands this concept, why can’t you?
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pricedoutfornow Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Anonymous 10:17am-inventory over 18,000? where are you getting your numbers? as far as I can see Paul hasn’t been updating his site daily?
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Strataman Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/
Paul’s on holidays but he’s giving totals on his blog.
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Alexas Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Could someone please explain where all those cafés are – where action is? Are there any new developments nearby that is still possible to buy?
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Brittanny Spears Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Paul B. has mini updates on his blog that he is keeping up to date from France
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Brittanny Spears Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Rob A. June 2007 the same? I don’t no if you are aware of it,but inventory has risen slightly since then.
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Are there any new developments nearby that is still possible to buy?
check out the Donovan on Richards, they have a penthouse for
$2 million….. of course it is not waterfront but what do you want for $1200 sq. ft.?
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Disbelief Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
The reason why Vegas and LA had a crash was that people just kept buying and had a simple belief that prices only go up. And in Vancouver we know better…. and we have the lesser of the 2 olympic games and are landlocked and a world class city bla bla bla. Bottom line is that people here are very naive and will be spanked hard…
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
re: new developments:
also Richards site from Aquilini
presales will start very soon
be interesting to see who lines up
for this one, maybe we can meet rob A
and geezer in the flesh…
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Bubble Lad Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Thanks, Drachen. That answered my question.
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umdesch4 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
pricedoutfornow (and others):
Yeah, a little under the radar, but here’s a
quick link to PaulB’s numbers updates
Scroll through comments to see a roughly daily update from him.
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DaMann Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Check Paul’s blog, he has been updating the numbers in there. We are now at 18,042. Started the month at almost 17k even. Staggering increase. We could see 19k at month end at this rate.
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DaMann Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Sorry meant to say we could see 20k by month end at this rate
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Alexas Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Thanks blueskies for the tip. Another thing I’ll need to know as well, do you qualify to hangout in café and contribute to action even if you don’t have any money to purchase a coffee but owning a condo within a block or two?
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Me2 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Come on who needs a d/t condo when you can spend all your time on here bitching about things you can’t afford. Your stepfathers basement is good enough for that. He might even let you use his Mr. Coffee machine.
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Warren Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
The endless “sarcasm” on here is pretty weak. If bears want to take the high ground they need to change their tune.
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/dev/null Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Maybe the bears are bored that bulls don’t bring anything of substance to the table. Facts, cogent arguments etc.
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
do you qualify to hangout in café and contribute to action even if you don’t have any money to purchase a coffee but owning a condo
sorry coffee costs real money but you can
“spare change?” enough to rustle up the
requisite stipend required then you can sit back
and enjoy the YT ambiance:
hot cars, yummy mummies and designer dogs galore
everybody is Blackberried up the yingyang
and in a month everybody will be sporting the new 3G iPhone
must have iPod earbuds or a Bluetooth mike stuck in one ear
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
take the high ground
could y’all identify this high ground?
anything to do with BC bud?
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Time Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I sell before market going down to new dumb head and left handed bowler rugy pitch dumb head jun wisemans
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beatstreet Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
we could see 20k by month end at this rate
Maybe in a few years we will see some of the these downtown gems will be converted to office buildings?
Unlikely, but in most “world class” cities, the downtown core is the centre for business, not a hub of coffee chains catering to foreign absentee condo owners or domestic 40 year mortgage holders.
It is pretty clear that our city council has been happy to have our business district slowly fade into the sunset, along with the tax base that goes with it.
Enjoy those ever-rising operating expenses!
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RJB Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
“hot cars, yummy mummies and designer dogs galore”
barf
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punface Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Does anyone know where to find the volume of listings and sales pre-2005? I’d like to know how these current numbers compare to past cycles, not just the past few years.
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punface Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Also – does anyone do a monthly “$ per square foot” analysis? I seem to remember some Alberta blogs were looking at this number last year, and it was the first thing to drop, since it wasn’t affected by sales mix considerations.
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-A- Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Hi blueskies, when posting at the dog site, would you please tell WOW I am so deeply disappointed:
I quote:
“WoW { 06.10.08 at 2:54 pm } Rob/Jeff/RJ (honeybuns!:))”
I never would have thought he was into wrinkles. Yuk!
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
-A-
WoW has to be taken with a grain of salt…..
he/she/it tends to be hyperbolic at the best of times
prolific keyboard output
a hormonal bear on Ritalin and Xanax would probably be
more subtle
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-A- Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Thanks Blueskies, I feel much better now that I know we haven’t acutally lost one of ours.
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blueskies Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
-A-
i posted this this AM on robs’ blog:
for your entertainment
blueskies { 06.10.08 at 7:23 am }
bears in N Van?!
so if a real bear (ursus major) took out
a realtor (realtus titsupii) would that be irony?
or synchronicity?
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Drachen Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Warren
“If bears want to take the high ground they need to change their tune.”
Oh, and here I thought that being right gave us the high ground.
Was that sarcastic? Maybe a little.
It’s not a beauty or a personality contest, one group is right, the other wrong. 1+1 equals the same thing no matter how nicely you say it 3 is the wrong answer.
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browntown Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
hey umdesch dickslap farmboy! you need spend more time with cats, dog, cow and blueberry, less time with bear and turkey! yeah; you sink in turkey slop for not following get rich renting scheme! dracken rocket science rising sun jap man! better than rocket science story rocket man! ha ha ha
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browntown Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
thanks for math lesson dickslap! you lose personality contest but got math renting course coming! rent money equals money to landlord rocket man! at least you got computer!
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drongo Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Well it certainly is not a great place to do business. We just got our property tax notice from our landlord…up 9%! For what? The Olympic clock?
..and we are in a building that is well over 20 years old.
beatstreet – it is illegal for your landlord to make you pay his property tax.
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umdesch4 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
browntown, was that an insult? I can’t understand what you’re saying…the words, they look like english, but the goggles, they do nothing!
punface: here’s a comparison of inventory levels for the last few years at a glance:
Paul’s pretty inventory graph
Other than that, I don’t know of where to get numbers for past ratios, etc.
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Strataman Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
browntown Says Damn nobody buy me frickin assininement..turkeyslop me gonna work in warehouse rest of life payin that off…stupid effin tenant on holidays…gotta fix dumbass plumbing again..wife yellin and kids not talkinto me cause I told idiot offspring to buy at same place..damn dam dam …bears talkin this collapse up what dumbass I is me send this to you lawyer solve problem please!!!
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Thums up2 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
“Thums up2 – We are only here to help you. You should sell now before all your gains are lost.You will thank us later.”
Brittanny,
I was already reading this blogs since the beginnig but did not find any threat to our economy and real estate so I bought those three place one by one every year and still have plan to buy sfh around 2010-2011.
“You will thank us later”
I am already thanking you brittanny and all other bears please keep it up you give me ENTHUSIASIASM to buy more ever year,THANK YOU EVERY ONE.
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Montery Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Punface, I’ve been tracking the MLS west-end market for over a month now on a near daily basis for 2 bedroom condo’s. Despite many price reductions I have seen the average cost per sqft go UP.
Why?
Because the low-end (ie, those places that are less than $500/sqft) have sold quickly. Those other places that are at the high end (more than $600/sqft) have not moved at all. And those places are dropping their prices often by 10-20K.
It’s geeky fun, I admit it, tracking the movement each day in MLS. It’s really exciting when I see multiple price drops on a single property.
Um, yeah, I don’t get out much.
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yeah right. Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
What a waste of time on these boards. Yes, eventually, you might be right – but it’ll never be to the extent that you think. 25 year investment for money that probably won’t be used elsewhere is not a bad idea. People have jobs… they diversify. There’s no opportunity loss!
Prices will probably just stabilize, maybe fall a few dollars, but not the 20/30/40% that you wish. 20 foreclosures per week – how many thousand condos are there in the Lower mainland? Geez, at least the title wasn’t “Foreclosures up 100%”
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patriotz Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
beatstreet – it is illegal for your landlord to make you pay his property tax.
beatstreet is a commercial tenant, and in many commercial leases the tenant is responsible for property taxes.
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Warren Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Drachen: “It’s not a beauty or a personality contest, one group is right, the other wrong.”
I’m certainly not a bull, and not buying any RE right now, but when bears are wrong year after year for 4-5 years now, you’ve already lost on huge gains. Sure you’ll be right eventually… the market is cyclical. I can say that RE will experience huge gains and get laughed at, but maybe some time in the next 4-5 years I’ll be right too. Then you’ll be wrong!
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freako Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
I love this vague reference to “observers”. Who are these people (not that I doubt they exist, they are everywhere)? But are they “experts”? Industry mouthpieces?
Not as bad as the infamous Ashley Ford article of 1981 though:
Ashley Ford sources,
March, 4 1981:
“While Real Estate prices have apparently reached a benchmark, there is no decline in house prices – and there won’t be, according to industry analysts”
“Both agreed there is not a hope of falling prices and there is a terrific underlying strength to the market”
I wonder if the 2008 “observers” are related to the 1981 “analysts”.
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Vansanity Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Crazy story:
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....5440029c39
Excerpt:
“For the past 17 years, “Zino” has lived a seemingly ordinary life in Saskatchewan and B.C. By the age of 40, he’d bought houses, opened bank accounts and collected credit cards. His real estate holdings across B.C., and more than 14 credit and bank cards, gave him assets and credit in excess of $1 million.
The only problem – “Zino” doesn’t exist. He’s been dead since 1968 when, as a four-month-old baby, he was killed by a drunk driver in Saskatoon.”
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freako Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
it was the first thing to drop, since it wasn’t affected by sales mix considerations.
We have benchmarked and indexed prices here, so price per square foot is not really required.
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browntown Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
hey stratastud! i have assignment for you nutslap, sign up first for get rich rental scheme course! turkey slop collapsing on you building managr man!
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Vansanity Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Another good read titled “B.C. recreational property market stabilizes”:
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....791237f1d3
Excerpt:
“He also said the availability of bargain U.S. real estate properties has clearly reduced the number of buyers looking at Canadian recreational properties.
“We see U.S. owners of Canadian properties putting them up for sale now so they can take their profits and reinvest them in the U.S sun belt,” Ash said.”
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holgs Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
20 foreclosures per week – how many thousand condos are there in the Lower mainland? Geez, at least the title wasn’t “Foreclosures up 100%”
It was only 2 years ago that I was telling some of the bulls at work about the 200% or 300% increase in foreclosures in some of the major housing bomb cities in the USA (think Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, etc.). At that time, the argument was “yeah, but foreclosures are at a record low… going from 10 per month to 30 per month is 200%, but that’s only 20 more per month. Well… Follow the trend, my friend, we’re where they were 2 years ago.
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umdesch4 Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Interesting thought:
If the number of listings reaches 20K soon (which could even be by the end of this month), and the average listing price across all categories is roughly $500K, then that’s $10 billion in available inventory.
Geez…
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patriotz Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
when bears are wrong year after year for 4-5 years now
Bears have not been wrong for 4-5 years, except those few who have predicted a specific date for a market top.
The bears are saying that there will be significant decline in real prices to restore fundamentals with respect to real rents and incomes. This will almost certainly involve a fall in nominal prices as we are seeing in the US, Alberta, etc. This is open ended, but quantitative. It is not just a “prices will go down some time in the future” prediction.
Oh BTW just who was bearish about Vancouver RE in 2003?
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patriotz Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
Another good read titled “B.C. recreational property market stabilizes
As we all know, “stabilizes” actually means “the bust is on”.
Oh BTW a lot of locals have remortgaged their residences to buy BC recreational property. How does that strategy turn out when the market tanks?
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Time Says:
June 10th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
“I’m looking for advice on where to buy in in the lower mainland.”-Moonman.
Moonman,
You should buy in dtes at Powel,Water or Alexander.R.E on these streets virtually poised to never go down,minimum listing area in Vancouver, constantly going up from centuaries,easy convenient location for office,shopings,outlook,cafe resturants,night life pubs etc.
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beatstreet Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 12:21 am
beatstreet is a commercial tenant, and in many commercial leases the tenant is responsible for property taxes.
This is correct.
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alexcanuck Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 6:38 am
My belief is the global housing bubble is going to retrace all of this once in a lifetime boom, perhaps even more.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://tinyurl.com/6gg6y7
Mish on UK housing collapse.
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blueskies Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 6:47 am
all of this once in a lifetime boom, perhaps even more
once in a lifetime!!
my sentiments exactly
sometime to tell your grandchildren
“when i was your age i had to walk to school past many houses that were worth more than a million dollars each … ahh the good ol’ days”
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Drachen Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Warren
“I can say that RE will experience huge gains and get laughed at, but maybe some time in the next 4-5 years I’ll be right too. Then you’ll be wrong!”
Being right for the wrong reasons has little value though. There is a science to these things, most of us bears here are following scientific methods to determine the outcome. This kind of methodology has value. Most of us know that guessing the timing of the collapse until graph features like the current inventory spike occur is futile.
However we CAN tell you when the market is in a position beyond it’s sustainable maximum. Once a market has reached beyond it’s sustainable limit it is a fool’s market, intelligent investors got out in the ’90s (which is why there was a slight dip in prices) when prices started to outpace fundamentals.
Anyone who stayed in after that point was gambling, not investing. Which is not to say you can’t gamble and win. People do that all the time. It’s just that it’s success through blind luck rather than intelligent analysis and forethought.
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Tayman Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 7:54 am
Here’s an interesting, and sarcastic, quote from a poster following Shedlock’s article. Sound familiar?
“But it’s okay, because London is different. All the Russians will buy up all the housing. The City makes trillions. Britain is a small island where they are not making new land.”
I am new to this but, for me, there seem to be a lot of similarities to the UK and Canadain housing markets.
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Tayman Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 7:55 am
Here’s an interesting, and sarcastic, quote from a poster following Shedlock’s article. Sound familiar?
“But it’s okay, because London is different. All the Russians will buy up all the housing. The City makes trillions. Britain is a small island where they are not making new land.”
I am new to this but, for me, there seem to be a lot of similarities to the UK and Canadain housing markets. Is this so?
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Tayman Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Apologies for the double post. And spelling Canadian wrong. Oops.
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blueskies Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Tayman;
people tend to grasp at any straw available, whether it is here or across the pond……
but it would seem we are fighting for the same “rich immigrants” as they are…..
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Thums up2 Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 9:32 am
“I am new to this but, for me, there seem to be a lot of similarities to the UK and Canadian housing markets. Is this so?”
Tayman,
The answer is no that’s not true unless you make a list of similarities hmm?unless you reach up to that point i would like to mention some facts that makes Canada different.
1.Foreign Policy and Governing Body
2.Structure of Streets and Highway
3.Beauty and Livablities
4.Bordering with USA
5.Whistler,Black Comb,Squamish is in b.c.-Canada
0(priceless).Mountain,oceanic views,clean air,quality of life,best scenic drive“THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH”
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Tayman Says:
June 11th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Oh, yeah, sure. Listen, I didn’t say I was an idiot, I said I was new at this.
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Rocker Guy Says:
June 12th, 2008 at 6:37 am
I’m traveling in Europe at the moment. What a different world.
In Zurich, Switzerland (rated as the best city in the world in 2003 – http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2815625.stm), about one third of resident own their homes. The rest rent. Why? I asked someone from Zurich.
“We choose not to own because it would be too expensive. Property taxes are high, and there are many problems in maintaining a property. Why would you want to own?”
Let’s remember that Switzerland has an unemployment rate of only 3.1% (and Zurich’s rate is even lower). House prices in Switzerland have only increased 19% since 1997, and that’s despite the fact that in Switzerland you can write off your mortgage interest.
Interesting. And you know what really blew me away? My friend from Switzerland said, “In Zurich, you can rent very nice flats. Why would you want to buy one?”
Perhaps this is what happens in a society that has been around since 1291.
119 X Vancouver Housing Bubble Has Finally Burst at Investing Intelligently Says:
June 17th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
[...] Foreclosures have doubled since last year. [...]