Foreclosures double as market cools
A couple of economic bad news stories posted by Via on this weekends Friday Free-for-all post: The spring selling season so far has us looking at a very different market from previous years. Sales have dropped and inventory has risen dramatically, at the beginning of June we’re looking at close to 18,000 listings for sale in Vancouver. As it becomes harder to sell the number of foreclosures have doubled in the lower mainland:
Kap Hiroti, who tracks Lower Mainland foreclosures at ForeclosureList.ca, says foreclosures stand at 20 per week, up from 10 per week in 2006.
“For one reason or another, they didn’t pay the mortgage, or insurance, or property tax,” says Hiroti, who advises real estate owners looking to foreclose or prospective buyers looking to buy a foreclosed property. “Or they get behind in their strata or condo fees, or face a one-time cost such as a roof or a leaky condo, which might set them back 40, 50 or 60 thousand dollars.”
…
Hiroti believes the Lower Mainland real-estate market has “flatlined,” meaning investors who were counting on making a profit no longer see an upside.
As a result, some have chosen to lose their investments through foreclosure rather than hanging on with no sign of a significant upside return.
“They were kind of speculating that the market would go up, but when the market flatlines, some people just choose to get out. Local people are getting priced out of the market.”
At the same time BCs unemployment rate has been creeping up - the jobless rate is now at 4.5% as positions are lost in trade, transportation and agriculture. The unemployment rate is particularly high for young people at 8.8% and for recent immigrants with an unemployment rate of 9.8%.
The bright point in the jobs data remains construction which has been the key driver in the BC jobs market for the last 5 years. The question is: how long can you have a jobs market driven by construction?
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June 9th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
“Observers say a U.S.-style housing market collapse here is unlikely, thanks to Vancouver’s healthy job market, population growth and a location constrained by mountains, ocean and the U.S. border.”
What is wrong with people???
June 9th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
But even aside from that, remember that the problems in the US mortgage market didn’t really reveal themselves until house prices dipped for a year or so. Any of those “lax” mortgagees that got in trouble cold simply sell or refinance their way out of it - a door that was slammed shut once prices started to drop.
It will be really interesting to see what a year of flat or sinking prices reveals about the state of Canadian mortgage underwriting.
June 9th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Healthy job market? How many Realtors earning 25% less commission than last year does it take to screw in a light bulb?
June 9th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Thanks for the belly laugh on a rainy Monday afternoon.
June 9th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
oversight?
June 9th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
We’ll see what happens over the summer, especially if mortgage rates have hit bottom, which I expect they have.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
June 9th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
i think the BOC is cutting interest rates again tomorrow.
June 9th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
So they might but it doesen’t mean that the banks will follow
June 9th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Ha, ha, ha!!!!
June 9th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
hope springs eternal….
you can rent them your home for $25K for 2 weeks and sell them a $500K condo on their way out of town….
talk about your win-win situation
June 9th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Yes I expect so too (although the wisdom of such a move is questionable). So variable rates will probably hit bottom this week. Meanwhile, the longer end is being challenged already.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
The short answer is obvious. The mega projects should all be complete by end of 2009… I assume many of the condo projects that are currently being built will try to wrap up by then as well. Then what?
I’m really starting to look forward to 2010… not for the Winter Olympics but for the reality check people are in for…oh and this other little event happening… the World Cup in South Africa. Wonder if they’re hyping Johannesburg as the best place on earth just yet?? T.I.A.
June 9th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
June 9th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Fair enough?
June 9th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Eager to enter the market
Sadly, the same individual was quoted as making both of these statements, with no indication of irony:
“I don’t buy anything,” he says, “unless I have the money to pay for it.”
“I’m working on paying off the down payment now, and if the building’s closing were delayed, that could even be a blessing.”
June 9th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
“when there is a bank ruptcy in our life it doesn’t matter if we are home owners or tenents anybody can pass out anywhere”-Thums up2
June 9th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
House sales fall worst in 30 years
“The drought in housing transactions is starting to cause substantial problems for the economy, the RICS warns, as estate agents, lawyers, mortgage brokers and removal men suffer their quietest period in a generation.
Even during the depths of the housing crash in 1991, agents sold 26 properties in any three-month period - almost 50 per cent higher than last month’s figure.”
Also a new word for me: GAZUNDER - the controversial practice of buyers dropping their offer price after they have agreed to purchase…
Does anyone know how much of the UK drop is driven by foreclosure?
June 9th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
To be fair, if his time horizon is truly 25 years, he will reap a gain, even if he buys at today’s prices.
He’d probably make a larger gain if he waited a few years before buying, but 25 years out is a long time for house prices to correct, stabilize and resume a normal and saner upwards progression.
June 9th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
world class centers (paris, london, tokyo) get the summer games…
June 10th, 2008 at 12:01 am
Which will exceed the rental value far into the future.
If the compounded accumulated deficit exceeds the gain at the time of sale, you’ve lost money.
June 10th, 2008 at 2:35 am
Your co-worker’s a moron. He wants to wait 25yrs to realize a gain in his investment?
Does he know the definition of opportunity cost?
Tell him I’ve got a bag of magic beans to trade him for his cow.
You might as well not bother wasting your time with that discussion.
Talk about Euro 2008 instead.
June 10th, 2008 at 3:09 am
Better yet, ask to borrow $1000 from him and tell him you’ll pay him back $1100 in 25 years.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:48 am
By Greg Quinn
June 10 (Bloomberg) — The Bank of Canada unexpectedly kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on concerns energy costs may push inflation past the top of its target band later this year.
http://tinyurl.com/6lbx4a
June 10th, 2008 at 7:04 am
unexpectedly?!
with the attention being paid to inflationary forces this move should not have been a surprise to anyone paying attention…. more of the same to follow
any bulls find that their coffee didn’t taste so good this AM?
June 10th, 2008 at 7:09 am
at the current rate of airline companies going out of business due to energy costs, will there be any planes flying in 2010?
methinks the 2010 olympics will be more of an HDTV venue than a travel opportunity for the masses….
now where did i put that remote?
June 10th, 2008 at 8:12 am
I didn’t say “unexpected”, just quoted it.
And all those pundits who didn’t “expect” much of the credit crunch have all the credibility of an illiterate housing bull on this blog, to me anyway.
They still are the ones that get quoted, though! Could it be the MSM doesn’t have our best interests at heart? Say it ain’t so, my faith is shattered, I tell ya, my belief system is crumbling as I type.
I’m going to rush out and buy 10 presales, do my patriotic duty to save the speculators! Or maybe not.
June 10th, 2008 at 8:18 am
June 10th, 2008 at 8:19 am
June 10th, 2008 at 8:28 am
June 10th, 2008 at 8:34 am
You’re an idiot. Bankruptcy happens because you spend more than you earn. It happens because you’re bad with money, live off credit and dig yourself deep into debt. Yes, temporary setbacks happen, thats why you plan for them and make sure you have emergency savings.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:00 am
OMG you’re so prescient! Now get out there and buy, buy, buy!!
June 10th, 2008 at 9:03 am
You fucking idiot how many months of payment you need to stop to send foreclosures,Foreclosures are un predicted otherwise how do you go to buy?Simply by keeping in mind things will be alright according to current situation.I am low income earner but i have 155% gain on my principle residence,133 percent on my sfh and 45% down plus 35 percent gain on my 3 future investment I can go bank rupt tomorrow or never because of my income the gain you have notice is a gold or garbage in a seconds.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Yeah umdesch! You’re single handedly bringing down this house of cards, shame on you.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Yep no subprime in Canada. Warehouse workers mortgaged to the hilt on five properties, nothing to see here folks. Umdesch, quit talking down the market!
June 10th, 2008 at 9:14 am
June 10th, 2008 at 9:27 am
You are a biggest loser of all time, ain’t you are an americas bitch -in your own words? you dum head “life is by chance anything can happen any time so it doesn’t matter where you are you won’t be sitting there for so long”-Got It.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:43 am
…Also a new word for me: GAZUNDER - the controversial practice of buyers dropping their offer price after they have agreed to purchase…
The practice of gazundering has returned courtesy of a buyer’s market, but during the boom, most likely the opposite practice of “gazumping“, where the refusal to sell a property sale at an agreed price in order to entertain a higher offer, would have held sway. It is due to these practices that England and Wales launched NLIS to facilitate conveyancing and consequently expedite the home-buying process so that there would be less opportunity for gazunderings and gazumpings that plagued real-estate transactions.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:59 am
I’m not talking the market down, so much as watching what’s going on, and seeing a huge disconnect between reality and what all these “puff-piece” articles are saying. Even a critical one like the one pointed to in this entry ends with a “but it won’t happen here” happy ending.
I wouldn’t advise anyone to buy anything right now, unless they had a real reason, weren’t looking at the investment side of it so much, and shop *very* carefully.
June 10th, 2008 at 10:17 am
June 10th, 2008 at 10:32 am
June 10th, 2008 at 10:33 am
June 10th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Travel opportunity for the masses? No one is pretending that the 2010 games will be anything other than a party for the rich, as always. Do a little research on ticket prices for events that people actually want to see (as opposed to stuff like biathlon).
The risk is not that people won’t come for the Olympics - the rich are with us always - but the promised spinoffs that depend on middle-class discretionary income won’t happen. Based on what’s happening south of the border, that risk is getting bigger all the time.
June 10th, 2008 at 11:47 am
“if there are fewer people in the condo, does that “40, 50, or 60K” that makes up your piece of the pie for the roof repair go up?”
Apparently not because *somebody* must own.
However I suspect that most developers have a clause in the contract that says unsold condos do not pay a share of the fees if the developer still holds ownership. This has become a huge problem in Miami where some buildings are only half sold. There was an article posted on here about the problem a few months back, apparently most banks will not even entertain the thought of giving a mortgage to someone who wants to buy in one of these places.
June 10th, 2008 at 11:57 am
June 10th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Vancouver is a great place to live, especially downtown. There is so much to do in terms of resturants and cafes. People in the know realize that it’s the place to be. That isn’t going to change any time soon.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Well it certainly is not a great place to do business. We just got our property tax notice from our landlord…up 9%! For what? The Olympic clock?
..and we are in a building that is well over 20 years old.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
I will be bringing my wife, her sister and uncle, my godfather and our 17 moon-children so we’ll need a large space (bare minimum 348 sq feet). Also being close to cafes and restaurants is important because I hear that Vancouver is a city that has those. Any recommendations?
June 10th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Unfortunate that there are so few people “in the know” because if there were you would not see sales falling and inventory rising. I’m sure it will remain “the place to be” — though for 40% lower than today’s asking prices.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
You speak of the great Cafes in the downtown, which ones do you feel are great?