http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING.....index.html

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yeah i just seed that!

good thing i dint shoot the messenger

my bad!

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http://tinyurl.com/3e9z8w

Former HP employees say opportunities for advancement have dwindled. And in the past 30 days, more employees have been told they will be laid off if they can’t find work elsewhere in the company.

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http://tinyurl.com/5blopu

“Toronto was the top-ranking Canadian city at 13th, down one spot from last year. Montreal was 32nd, down five spots. At No. 37, Vancouver was down nine notches from 2007’s rankings.”

Last year we were almost tied with Montreal, but now we’ve slipped behind. I wonder why?

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Foreclosures heat as market cools

and

B.C. jobless rate rises

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They’ll fall into an economic black hole, just like in the early 80’s. And you can include Vic & Kelowna in that group.

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Agreed, but wait till these people have to renew their mortgages and discover they owe more than it’s worth. They’ll walk away then because they have to.

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Thanks for your attempts to provide round the clock update,yes that’s where we are right now.sorry because of short on time i am going to avoid writing any other response,there is nothing much to ignore your point only the inside detail can turn the puck towards your post or my post thanks and

yes we’ll see where the road goes after the forth coming intersection.

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]]> http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/06/friday-free-for-all-24.html#comment-19655 patriotz Mon, 09 Jun 2008 11:16:25 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/06/friday-free-for-all-24.html#comment-19655 I don't think it will be one or the other. Fundamentals are so out of whack for both condos and SFH that I think whichever one shows weakness first will pull the other down very quickly. There was no discernible difference in the speed of decline in the 1981 bust, you saw both abandoned condos and SFH (including a whole 1/2 block around 29th and Slocan).<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-19655">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I don’t think it will be one or the other. Fundamentals are so out of whack for both condos and SFH that I think whichever one shows weakness first will pull the other down very quickly.

There was no discernible difference in the speed of decline in the 1981 bust, you saw both abandoned condos and SFH (including a whole 1/2 block around 29th and Slocan).

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If we look at the numbers of home built during 2005 till further we can easily find a group of income earner to support the prices trend.you can address your opinion beatstreet?

According to the GVRD, greater van population should grow by about 70,000 over the next two years (to 2009).
http://www.gvrd.bc.ca/growth/keyfacts/popproj.htm

Given that the average household size is 2.6, if all these people decided to buy a house (being conservative here), we would need a supply of about 27,000 new homes. Perfect, we have about 26,000 homes under construction now according to Mohican’s blog.

So far so good. But, we have 17,000 on the market right now according to Paul’s blog. So then you have to assume that all these sellers are just trading up and down the market (no empty fixer ups, condo flippers etc). Highly unlikely.

Even so, there is still this problem of affordability. Given that the average household income is about $63,000, the whole bullish case assumes that the typical newcomer will have the means and be happy to take out a 40 year mortgage to buy a tiny condo (which would be cheaper to rent).

We’ll see, but right now I am betting that the market can’t clear given the fundamentals.

And while I used to think that condo’s were the most vulnerable to a downturn, I am beginning to think it will be the SFH price that is most at risk, at least in the early stage.

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i noticed that all the images and maps studiously avoided show those tracks… Marketing 101

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http://www.kootenaylakevillage.com/index.htm

This is in Procter, 35 km east of Nelson, accessable only by ferry. As an added attraction you have the CPR trains to the Trail smelter rolling past your dream house.

The whole southern interior and Island are full of stuff like this. Where are all the people going to come from?

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Buying an investment property when it’s cash flow positive is not a leap of faith, it’s just common sense.

Note the date 1983 again.

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I understand what you’re saying and appreciate the advice. When it comes to debating important topics, I always try to keep an open mind about what both sides have to say. People often become very emotional when presenting or defending their position (understatement of the year, I know) and I usually find that, inevitably, the answer is somewhere in the middle. So a large grain of salt goes with me wherever I go, I suppose.

Obviously, as a person who does not own, I am hoping for as big a decline as possible in the market, but I do realize a large correction may or may not happen. In the meantime I would like to educate myself at least a little so that in the event things do unfold in such a manner I will be able to take advantage.

You know, thinking about it, I realize some types here may go a little over the top with their rhetoric, but try as I might I simply can not put my trust in what realtors, bankers or people involved directly in Vancouver RE have to say. They all have ulterior motives for having me think positively of buying at the current rates. Here, at least I can see some data and glean some info while getting a different perspective. Anyway, time for a beer. Cheers. Tay

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You’re not one to talk. Do you have anything worthwhile to add to the conversation, or are you just lashing out as you sit alone in the middle of an empty house?

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I would expect inventory to grow in places like Whistler and other recreational areas that have benefited a lot from US investment, as Americans have made substantial profits from the currency change over the years and are now starting to look for bargains on the home front where markets have alreay crashed.

Any towns that are even remotely dependent on forestry are also flirting with disaster….check out post #32 about sawmill towns.

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I would expect inventory to grow in places like Whistler and other recreational areas that have benefited from US investment, as these investors have made substantial profits from the currency change over the years and can now pursue bargains on the home front where markets have already crashed.

Any towns that are even remotely dependent on the forest industry are also flirting with disaster….check out post #32 about sawmill towns.

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on the ride up a lot of people pulled equity out of their existing homes to buy into the market in smaller centres
(equity locusts). as the market deteriorates some of these owners are stuck with high debts against their principal residence and a marginal holding in a remote location.
these types will ultimately have to bail out if the downturn is protracted, leaving you with good choices from motivated sellers. so the pain is widespread.
Sunshine Coast would be an excellent example of this.
a patient bear could do well in this scenario.

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The only reason I’m reluctant to disagree is because “stupid” would be inadequte to describe someone considering plunging into this market. It would take someone with the mental capacity between an insect and a plant.

In case you have’nt noticed, the world is in a major economic transition, the RE meltdown is global, and Vancouver, as the bubbliest city on the continent is undergoing an unprecedented inventory spike.

Case Shiller stats clearly show that cities which managed to delay the collapse are falling faster than the first ones to decline. As the last holdout, we’re in for a helluva ride. Although it could take many years for the market to start trending up again, most of the damage will be confined to the first 18 months.

Hunker down folks, the jig’s up!

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