Friday Free For All!
It’s Friday and that means open-topic discussion time on VancouverCondo.Info. Here are a few stories I’ve noticed this week:
- Vancouver prices stagnating or dropping?
- Planners want offices downtown
- Council Passes EcoDensity™ ©harter
- Oil makes everything more expensive
- Mortgage rates going up
- Sad outlook for forestry
- Difficult days ahead for Canadian banks
- Canada urged to save for a rainy day
- Bay st. surprised about inflation?
- Still paying more than Americans
- US lenders slash prices to dump foreclosures
- Britain enters nightmare of negative equity
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and thoughts here and have an excellent weekend!
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June 12th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
June 12th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
No hair cut required in vancouver,b.c.”THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH”
June 12th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
June 12th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Call me Austrian, but I don’t buy this argument. Inflation is caused by excess liquidity, not resource shortages.
If price of one item in the CPI basket goes up, people will either buy less of it (elastic demand) or buy less of something else (inelastic demand).
Demand for gasoline is inelastic in the short term, so people have no choice but to buy it. But since money is finite, that also means that they have no choice but to buy less of something else. Thus demand for other products such as casual dining is down, which means LESS inflation in those items. The NET impact is nil. Of course, having fixed basket will still indicate a rise in general price levels, but that is misleading.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
I think it’s been pretty obvious for awhile now that he can’t.
The guy is obviously either:
1. totally f***ing with us
2. completely out to lunch.
Either way, I can`t figure out why he still gets so much attention from some of you. I try to skip his posts, but then you guys comment on them and I feel like I need to go back and try to translate his garbage.
Please stop paying attention to him.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
hmmhmm, you’re right about the troll, I apologize. sometimes I feel the need to raise to the bait to point out the obvious when I should keep in mind that anyone who doesn’t get it won’t be helped by further explanation. Whooo! That was rather long winded and unclear but its been a long week. ‘nite all!
June 12th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
I understand. I rarely post here but will admit that I sometimes want to reply to some of the other obvious but better spoken trolls.
I just really like reading the various comments (from both sides), but it seems like too often his illiterate garbage completely derails the discussion.
If we ignore him…he might go away.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Adding to this is that many believe much of the recent increase in oil price is not due to fundamental demand but to speculation, again the root cause being excess liquidity.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Less of something else…like real estate perhaps?
June 12th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
June 12th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
And while I`m at it, I think you are the poster I feel best reflects my thoughts on the current situation.
I`ve enjoyed reading (and agreeing) with your arguments over the past couple years, and predict that over the next couple of years, most of you biggest critics will slowly disappear.
Keep up the good work.
ps. I miss the VHB blog, although I`m glad he`s posting again occasionally. How do I get access to the archives
June 12th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
June 12th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
It`s taken longer than expected, but I think their common sense will show to be true very shortly. Interesting times ahead in this city.
June 13th, 2008 at 12:00 am
http://www.tatuagemdaboa.com.b.....hums%20up2
June 13th, 2008 at 12:11 am
Yes, but an RE purchase is investment, not consumption. Buying a house is not consuming (using) it. Falling RE prices are asset price deflation which can happen even while CPI is rising (like right now in the US). The price of the consumption of RE (rent) is not affected by sales. Freako was talking about an offsetting fall in the cost of consumption if the money supply is kept constant.
From the MSNBC story:
“It’s not uncommon to have 10 to 20 offers on one house, and for the house to end up selling for more than its market price,” said Erin Attardi, a Sacramento Realtor.
No comment on this from the reporter, of course.
June 13th, 2008 at 4:36 am
Compared with last year…
50% More inventory in REBGV
93% more inventory in North Van
(1015)
71% more in Van West
60% more in West Van
38% more in East Van
Further, current REBGV total as of yesterday is 18489
June 13th, 2008 at 4:47 am
Didn’t pan out in 1981 either of course.
June 13th, 2008 at 6:05 am
Besides not being a proper sentence, they neglect to mention anything about what map they are referring to. It sure sounds like something I’d like to see though.
Anybody know what they’re talking about?
June 13th, 2008 at 6:19 am
Oil speculation is bad, but hands off my housing speculation!
Personally, I’d rather it be the other way around.
June 13th, 2008 at 6:29 am
Since I started tracking on May 6, this place on 1830 Alberni St was listed at 599K. On Jun 2nd, it disappeared. I keep watching for a day or two to see if it comes back under a different number. Nothing came up, so I assume someone paid $555/sqft. Not too surprising, that’s the mid-range in the market right now.
Jun 11 it comes back on the market under a new MLS# (V715154) and a brand new price. How much lower do you think? 10K? 20K? 30K??
Nope! It was re-listed at an amazing low low price of only 539K! A massive 60K drop in price! 60K… that can buy you a *really* nice car.
That price drop was an eye opener. So I looked a little closer at the listing. It’s a two-unit place that’s been merged together. That means that your condo fee’s are double. Condo fee’s on this place? $500/mo!!
That’s just crazy! Some poor sucker who buys that place will have to pay half a months rent in perpetuity just for the pleasure of living there. Nuts. If you don’t factor in the cost of monthly condo fees in your calculations, you deserve to get slapped.
I can’t imagine buildings being kept in any good shape when most of the places in the building have shrunk to half price and condo fees are now a significant percentage of the purchase price.
I wonder what condo associations will do when the fees to live in the building become very close to a mortgage payment on a condo!
June 13th, 2008 at 7:19 am
Well for starters you don’t know what anecdotal evidence is do you? It’s evidence with only a small number of examples to back it up. Since the graph is based on city-wide prices it is the opposite of anecdotal.
Secondly the fact that Vancouver is at a record high AND the previous record high resulted in a crash is good news to you?
June 13th, 2008 at 7:51 am
June 13th, 2008 at 8:11 am
freako, regarding oil prices, how can it not make “everything” more expensive when everything is transported around using oil, or in the case of food, grown with it?
Sure I can adjust my budget to drive less, eat less, not go on vacation, etc. But then my standard of living has dropped, since these things have all gone up much faster than my wages.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Well said, Ted. Others take note.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:14 am
June 13th, 2008 at 8:15 am
The good news is that this situation fixes itself when it blows up in their face. Unfortunately, the purveyors of said schemes usually walk away with hundreds of millions.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:24 am
I think I can answer that question. Someone (well a lot of someones) will take a nasty haircut.
It’s the downside of speculation.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Rather than being absorbed, the spigot is being turned off.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Ted,Drachen,and Hmmm,
I am surprised that you guys can’t see YOUR FUTURE in the graph,if you want me to explain,I would say friday was too early yesterday still can’t spare enough time but main while you guys can see the difference between 81,82 and 2007
Drachen says”Things will correct to reflect market fundamentals”-on the last thread.
I say things are already correct look at the graph carefully for more response i will be back,ted you can find your cycle and motor cycle in the graph,have a good ride on the cycle in the
“THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH”
June 13th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Is it possible that the necessary 20%, 30% drops will be stopped when loads of people start jumping in at 10% because their idea of “reasonable” regarding the real estate market has been so skewed?
June 13th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Fuel and food prices already eating away at our nest eggs
June 13th, 2008 at 9:13 am
I show the graph to people and they gasp and say “that’s beyond insane! Are those numbers even right?!”
…and Thums up2 says “I say things are already correct”.
I want to know what he/she’s been smoking so I can stay FAR away from it.
June 13th, 2008 at 9:26 am
The price is what it is. If it stops at 10%, it stops at 10% and the bulls have been right in saying that things are different this time.
If you believe it is not different this time, don’t bank on it stopping at 10%.
June 13th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Shut the fuck of you fucking idiot- did you ever go to school? son of bitch.
June 13th, 2008 at 10:01 am
So, let’s assume for the moment that I never went to school, or at least I missed “graph and chart analysis 101″. Can somebody explain to me how that graph plus
this graph
and this graph
indicate anything other than an impending correction?
Seriously though, for you bulls out there willing to actually make a well-reasoned argument, I honestly want to hear it.
June 13th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Usually, when a bubble turns into a bust, the same process that lead to the boom goes in reverse and fuels the bust. As prices drop, all investment experts will be talking about how real estate is dead for a generation. They will say its going to be just like Japan. That will fuel further price declines.
If you buy RE, people at cocktail parties will look at you like you are an idiot and say, “don’t you know that is the worst investment you can make? You won’t make a profit for 20 years.”
June 13th, 2008 at 10:29 am
June 13th, 2008 at 10:39 am
How did that brainwashing work out in the US, Spain, Ireland, the UK, Alberta, etc?
You can’t fool Mr. Market.
June 13th, 2008 at 11:42 am
“If you buy RE, people at cocktail parties will look at you like you are an idiot and say, “don’t you know that is the worst investment you can make? You won’t make a profit for 20 years.””
And of course the irony is that will be the time to buy investment properties.
Strataman
“And trying to argue with that simpleton type of person using logic is fruitless and we should ignore the junk comments it makes.”
Or as the saying goes, “Never argue with an idiot, they’ll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
June 13th, 2008 at 11:45 am
June 13th, 2008 at 11:55 am
I know your predicament deserves more sympathy than amusement or schaden freude, but cheer up man…it’s not too late to cut your losses by selling now, providing that you don’t get too greedy.
er…speaking of scools, mind telling us which to avoid?
June 13th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Not real news at all.. But I think it pertains to the overall housing market mentality
June 13th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Where did this number come from?
Paul B has it at 17520 as of June 4th.
If it jumped 1000 listings in the past nine days then I’m a very happy man!
June 13th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
See the comments in this thread
June 13th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Home listings flood market
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....3/GIStory/
June 13th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
June 13th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
… Markets with the largest decreases in sales: Saskatoon (-37 per cent), Edmonton (-35 per cent), Calgary (-33 per cent), Greater Vancouver (-31 per cent), Regina (-28 per cent).
June 13th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
June 13th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....3/GIStory/
Damn!!! We are not first!
June 13th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
June 13th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
It really, really, is different here.
June 13th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Yes but were not first!
June 13th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
June 13th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Where asset prices are concerned the psychology of demand is that the higher prices go, the more demand there is. Yes, this is paradoxical but it is true. Most people are stimulated to buy by rising prices because they fear missing the boat.
It is a fact that the greatest capital inflows to mutual funds happened in February (could be wrong about the exact month) 2000, the month before the stock markets crashed.
Who wants to buy an asset that is shrinking in price?
June 13th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
June 13th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
From one of the Pope’s links:
http://www.newstatesman.com/ec.....ng-british
But the truth is that you can hardly give these flats away. A two-bedroom flat, bought for £215,000 in September 2005, recently sold at auction for £79,000; another went for £86,000. Nine others did not sell at all. “Live the dream,” said the promotion for these developments; wake up to the nightmare of negative equity.
But your theory is that negative cash flow and negative equity is a good thing right?
And the shortage of land thing….
June 13th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
“However, we believe that the sector will remain in reasonable shape, and will avoid any U.S.-style housing correction.”
I guess the word “reasonable” is pretty broadly defined.
June 13th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
June 13th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Unless owning makes no financial sense. We are currently seeing a rush to the exists because capital appriciation is basically at an end. Negative cashflow, no prospect of capital gains = no reason to own. What comes next is the standard bust with prices falling in the double digits.
June 13th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Not even 40yr amort, and 5% down can stop this thing now…the train has definitely left the station.