332 Responses to “Friday Free For All!”
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June 13th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
meant to add: so much for the notion that the “booming west” will escape unscathed
June 13th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
– Markets with the largest decreases in sales: Saskatoon (-37 per cent), Edmonton (-35 per cent), Calgary (-33 per cent), Greater Vancouver (-31 per cent), Regina (-28 per cent).
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....3/GIStory/
Damn!!! We are not first!
June 13th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
And we made the national news! In that link dingus posted we’re in both the top listings increase and top sales decrease. Go Vancouver!
June 13th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Thanks Dingus, love this bit:
… Markets with the largest decreases in sales: Saskatoon (-37 per cent), Edmonton (-35 per cent), Calgary (-33 per cent), Greater Vancouver (-31 per cent), Regina (-28 per cent).
June 13th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
You can be happy Vanguy, listings really have jumped by almost 1000 in the last 9 days, today will probably put us over the top.
June 13th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Breaking News from The Globe and Mail
Home listings flood market
http://www.globeinvestor.com/s.....3/GIStory/
June 13th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Paul’s been posting updates to his blog while away on vacation in France.
See the comments in this thread
June 13th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
18489 listings?
Where did this number come from?
Paul B has it at 17520 as of June 4th.
If it jumped 1000 listings in the past nine days then I’m a very happy man!
June 13th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
http://www.theonion.com/conten.....market_for
Not real news at all.. But I think it pertains to the overall housing market mentality
June 13th, 2008 at 11:55 am
recent anonymous buyer buyer said…”Shut the fuck of you fucking idiot-did you ever go to school? son of bitch.”
I know your predicament deserves more sympathy than amusement or schaden freude, but cheer up man…it’s not too late to cut your losses by selling now, providing that you don’t get too greedy.
er…speaking of scools, mind telling us which to avoid?
June 13th, 2008 at 11:45 am
On a different note, on my morning run today I noticed the SECOND for sale sign go up in front of a unit purchased within the last year. Considering there’s only 14 such units (three houses that were flipped and broken to 4-5 units each and sold as strata) that makes 16% of the people who purchased as a primary residence in the last year cannot afford payments (I can’t think of another reason why you’d leave in less than a year).
June 13th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Burden
“If you buy RE, people at cocktail parties will look at you like you are an idiot and say, “don’t you know that is the worst investment you can make? You won’t make a profit for 20 years.””
And of course the irony is that will be the time to buy investment properties.
Strataman
“And trying to argue with that simpleton type of person using logic is fruitless and we should ignore the junk comments it makes.”
Or as the saying goes, “Never argue with an idiot, they’ll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
June 13th, 2008 at 10:39 am
I’m concerned that this correction won’t yield the necessary drop in prices because the public has been brainwashed with ridiculous real estate pumping propaganda.
How did that brainwashing work out in the US, Spain, Ireland, the UK, Alberta, etc?
You can’t fool Mr. Market.
June 13th, 2008 at 10:29 am
umdesch4 Says: “indicate anything other than an impending correction?” Well umdesch4 heh heh don’t you get it? if the bumsup satv type looks at the graph the line is going up!! Thus real estate goes up! And trying to argue with that simpleton type of person using logic is fruitless and we should ignore the junk comments it makes. They (those comments) spoil the site and call into question why it is worth reading or commenting here at all if we constantly respond to the lowest common denominator.
June 13th, 2008 at 10:22 am
“I’m concerned that this correction won’t yield the necessary drop in prices because the public has been brainwashed with ridiculous real estate pumping propaganda.”
Usually, when a bubble turns into a bust, the same process that lead to the boom goes in reverse and fuels the bust. As prices drop, all investment experts will be talking about how real estate is dead for a generation. They will say its going to be just like Japan. That will fuel further price declines.
If you buy RE, people at cocktail parties will look at you like you are an idiot and say, “don’t you know that is the worst investment you can make? You won’t make a profit for 20 years.”
June 13th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Wow, so constructive!
So, let’s assume for the moment that I never went to school, or at least I missed “graph and chart analysis 101″. Can somebody explain to me how that graph plus
this graph
and this graph
indicate anything other than an impending correction?
Seriously though, for you bulls out there willing to actually make a well-reasoned argument, I honestly want to hear it.
June 13th, 2008 at 9:42 am
umdesch4,
Shut the fuck of you fucking idiot- did you ever go to school? son of bitch.
June 13th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Lynchfan, there is no right price.
The price is what it is. If it stops at 10%, it stops at 10% and the bulls have been right in saying that things are different this time.
If you believe it is not different this time, don’t bank on it stopping at 10%.
June 13th, 2008 at 9:13 am
*blinks*
I show the graph to people and they gasp and say “that’s beyond insane! Are those numbers even right?!”
…and Thums up2 says “I say things are already correct”.
I want to know what he/she’s been smoking so I can stay FAR away from it.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Province/Canwest News Service:
Fuel and food prices already eating away at our nest eggs
June 13th, 2008 at 8:28 am
I’m concerned that this correction won’t yield the necessary drop in prices because the public has been brainwashed with ridiculous real estate pumping propaganda.
Is it possible that the necessary 20%, 30% drops will be stopped when loads of people start jumping in at 10% because their idea of “reasonable” regarding the real estate market has been so skewed?
June 13th, 2008 at 8:26 am
“I have no idea why people who are on the bear side still don’t seem to get this. Things will correct to reflect market fundamentals. “-Drachen in last post to betamax.
Ted,Drachen,and Hmmm,
I am surprised that you guys can’t see YOUR FUTURE in the graph,if you want me to explain,I would say friday was too early yesterday still can’t spare enough time but main while you guys can see the difference between 81,82 and 2007
Drachen says”Things will correct to reflect market fundamentals”-on the last thread.
I say things are already correct look at the graph carefully for more response i will be back,ted you can find your cycle and motor cycle in the graph,have a good ride on the cycle in the
“THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH”
June 13th, 2008 at 8:26 am
“if excess liquidity is what is causing these bubbles (housing, oil, etc) how can it be absorbed to fix the situation?”
Rather than being absorbed, the spigot is being turned off.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:24 am
Anon:
I think I can answer that question. Someone (well a lot of someones) will take a nasty haircut.
It’s the downside of speculation.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:15 am
It was excess liquidity married with obscene amounts of leverage under the auspices of faulty risk management that fueled the housing boom (IMO).
The good news is that this situation fixes itself when it blows up in their face. Unfortunately, the purveyors of said schemes usually walk away with hundreds of millions.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Re “Others take note”, I should have added “myself included!”
June 13th, 2008 at 8:14 am
you’re right about the troll … I should keep in mind that anyone who doesn’t get it won’t be helped by further explanation.
Well said, Ted. Others take note.
June 13th, 2008 at 8:11 am
I see a lot of price declines in downtown condos, but things are still selling. I guess its better than price increases.
freako, regarding oil prices, how can it not make “everything” more expensive when everything is transported around using oil, or in the case of food, grown with it?
Sure I can adjust my budget to drive less, eat less, not go on vacation, etc. But then my standard of living has dropped, since these things have all gone up much faster than my wages.
June 13th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Freako and patriotz, pardon my ignorance but if excess liquidity is what is causing these bubbles (housing, oil, etc) how can it be absorbed to fix the situation?
June 13th, 2008 at 7:19 am
Thums up2
Well for starters you don’t know what anecdotal evidence is do you? It’s evidence with only a small number of examples to back it up. Since the graph is based on city-wide prices it is the opposite of anecdotal.
Secondly the fact that Vancouver is at a record high AND the previous record high resulted in a crash is good news to you?
June 13th, 2008 at 6:29 am
I suppose now it’s getting to the point where it’s not news anymore. But in my tracking of 2 bedroom condos in the West End, I found this rather interesting development…
Since I started tracking on May 6, this place on 1830 Alberni St was listed at 599K. On Jun 2nd, it disappeared. I keep watching for a day or two to see if it comes back under a different number. Nothing came up, so I assume someone paid $555/sqft. Not too surprising, that’s the mid-range in the market right now.
Jun 11 it comes back on the market under a new MLS# (V715154) and a brand new price. How much lower do you think? 10K? 20K? 30K??
Nope! It was re-listed at an amazing low low price of only 539K! A massive 60K drop in price! 60K… that can buy you a *really* nice car.
That price drop was an eye opener. So I looked a little closer at the listing. It’s a two-unit place that’s been merged together. That means that your condo fee’s are double. Condo fee’s on this place? $500/mo!!
That’s just crazy! Some poor sucker who buys that place will have to pay half a months rent in perpetuity just for the pleasure of living there. Nuts. If you don’t factor in the cost of monthly condo fees in your calculations, you deserve to get slapped.
I can’t imagine buildings being kept in any good shape when most of the places in the building have shrunk to half price and condo fees are now a significant percentage of the purchase price.
I wonder what condo associations will do when the fees to live in the building become very close to a mortgage payment on a condo!
June 13th, 2008 at 6:19 am
The horror. The horror. A form of cognitive disonance? I think a case could be made.
Oil speculation is bad, but hands off my housing speculation!
Personally, I’d rather it be the other way around.
June 13th, 2008 at 6:05 am
On page 2 of the first article in the list, it says “Map shows proposed plan for Vancouver’s downtown core.”
Besides not being a proper sentence, they neglect to mention anything about what map they are referring to. It sure sounds like something I’d like to see though.
Anybody know what they’re talking about?
June 13th, 2008 at 4:47 am
So much for the theory that the upscale areas are immune to a downturn because everybody pays cash.
Didn’t pan out in 1981 either of course.
June 13th, 2008 at 4:36 am
These number’s were posted on PaulB’s blog today
Compared with last year…
50% More inventory in REBGV
93% more inventory in North Van
(1015)
71% more in Van West
60% more in West Van
38% more in East Van
Further, current REBGV total as of yesterday is 18489
June 13th, 2008 at 12:11 am
Less of something else…like real estate perhaps?
Yes, but an RE purchase is investment, not consumption. Buying a house is not consuming (using) it. Falling RE prices are asset price deflation which can happen even while CPI is rising (like right now in the US). The price of the consumption of RE (rent) is not affected by sales. Freako was talking about an offsetting fall in the cost of consumption if the money supply is kept constant.
From the MSNBC story:
“It’s not uncommon to have 10 to 20 offers on one house, and for the house to end up selling for more than its market price,” said Erin Attardi, a Sacramento Realtor.
No comment on this from the reporter, of course.
June 13th, 2008 at 12:00 am
This is for you Thums up2!
http://www.tatuagemdaboa.com.b.....hums%20up2
June 12th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
I`ve watched freako and VHB (among others) fight the good fight on many of the local blogs and sites(including realestatetalks).
It`s taken longer than expected, but I think their common sense will show to be true very shortly. Interesting times ahead in this city.
June 12th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
hmmhmm, you can access a lot of VHB’s data through mohican’s site. For more of freako, VHB, and other smart posters, go to the Realestatetalks BC Forum. This site is great regardless.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
freako,
And while I`m at it, I think you are the poster I feel best reflects my thoughts on the current situation.
I`ve enjoyed reading (and agreeing) with your arguments over the past couple years, and predict that over the next couple of years, most of you biggest critics will slowly disappear.
Keep up the good work.
ps. I miss the VHB blog, although I`m glad he`s posting again occasionally. How do I get access to the archives
June 12th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
thumbs graph could use a bit of detail in regards to the inflation calculation. nonetheless, peoples sometimes forget to consider that the increase in money supply relative to population growth (in canada) is a very similar percentile to the growth in real estate values (or in fact any commodity besides lumber). it doesn’t mean the money can’t flow elsewhere, but there has been a close correlation to date, including the last few years.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
If price of one item in the CPI basket goes up, people will either buy less of it (elastic demand) or buy less of something else (inelastic demand).
Less of something else…like real estate perhaps?
June 12th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Yes but the point is that the root cause of general price inflation is not a rise in price of any particular input, but of an increase in the money and credit supply.
Adding to this is that many believe much of the recent increase in oil price is not due to fundamental demand but to speculation, again the root cause being excess liquidity.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
ted,
I understand. I rarely post here but will admit that I sometimes want to reply to some of the other obvious but better spoken trolls.
I just really like reading the various comments (from both sides), but it seems like too often his illiterate garbage completely derails the discussion.
If we ignore him…he might go away.
June 12th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
freako, I took ‘everything’ to mean the key things that people are used to buying in their daily lives – gas, food, etc. Things that people view as neccesary or inelastic. Thats the stuff oil prices are hitting hard right now.
hmmhmm, you’re right about the troll, I apologize. sometimes I feel the need to raise to the bait to point out the obvious when I should keep in mind that anyone who doesn’t get it won’t be helped by further explanation. Whooo! That was rather long winded and unclear but its been a long week. ‘nite all!
June 12th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
ted,
I think it’s been pretty obvious for awhile now that he can’t.
The guy is obviously either:
1. totally f***ing with us
2. completely out to lunch.
Either way, I can`t figure out why he still gets so much attention from some of you. I try to skip his posts, but then you guys comment on them and I feel like I need to go back and try to translate his garbage.
Please stop paying attention to him.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Oil makes everything more expensive
Call me Austrian, but I don’t buy this argument. Inflation is caused by excess liquidity, not resource shortages.
If price of one item in the CPI basket goes up, people will either buy less of it (elastic demand) or buy less of something else (inelastic demand).
Demand for gasoline is inelastic in the short term, so people have no choice but to buy it. But since money is finite, that also means that they have no choice but to buy less of something else. Thus demand for other products such as casual dining is down, which means LESS inflation in those items. The NET impact is nil. Of course, having fixed basket will still indicate a rise in general price levels, but that is misleading.
June 12th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Thums, can you see the general wave shape on that graph you posted? Ever heard of a cycle? Can you guess where we might be in the cycle right now and why it might not be the best time to buy?
June 12th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
The best ever anecdotal evidence in the history of real estate. http://canada.com/theprovince/.....prices.swf
No hair cut required in vancouver,b.c.”THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH”
June 12th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
speculators are screwed! haha.