Welcome!
Comments
- Ugh!: @Anoymous: Well, it’s still ugly & an instant put-off for me. Something more neutral would have been...
- FlipFlop: Ya, gonna have to back SSB unfortunately. That HST does come out of the tax payers pocket (in reduced...
- Woodrow: Its funny how rennie is mentioning discounts coming later in the month. Who would buy if they know big...
- EB: $1750 for a 1 br in the OV? Ha ha ha ha Oh wait, he’s serious, let me laugh even harder.
- SuperSmartBull: @realpaul: Hey…why does the COV get to waive the HST on the OV condo project…..what kind of a message...
BC blog links
Blogroll
charts and data
other provinces
rental listings
usa market
VCI Wiki
-
Recent Posts
- Friday Free-for-all!
- BMO cuts rates “great time to buy”
- Don’t say ‘bubble’
- The MLS under seige
- The death of the American Dream
- Friday free-for-all!
- Leaky condo music video
- US Housing market continues plummet
- Government policy and house prices.
- Vancouver Land Development Guide
- Friday free-for-all!
- Canadian Business on housing bubble
- New unit sales across Vancouver.
- Holy Sales Tumble!
- Expecting the sales drop.
In the Forum:
- September data
Last Post By: specialfx3000
Inside: Market Data - Aug/10 REBGV Stats
Last Post By: vanpro
Inside: General Chatter - August numbers
Last Post By: vanpro
Inside: Market Data - How To: Hide Forclosed Comments
Last Post By: exx
Inside: General Chatter - Request for Data.
Last Post By: vanpro
Inside: Market Data - Check our "Leaky Condo Music Video" on Youtube
Last Post By: David Philip
Inside: General Chatter
- September data
Wordpress theme by Abhishek Tripathi of Mediawick Digital Solutions
June 20th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
the answer i was looking for was:
no now is a good time to wait
tomorrow will bring lower prices
June 20th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Good question blueskies. There is no single answer to that question. For some people yes, for some people no.
It depends on the individual and it depends on the product they are buying.
My opinion is that it is always a good time to buy if you: a. can afford it; b. plan to own for a least a moderate term (5 years); c. have economic stability; and, d. have found a product you desire. If you meet all those metrics, then a potential downturn has no effect on you. Rather, things get better over time as inflation increases your wages and as you build equity.
Trying to time the market is a fools game. I can guarantee you that the majority of bears here have been sitting in their dens for too long to ever make their lost gains back.
June 20th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Dave:
1 question
is now a good time to buy?
June 20th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Thanks for the kudos Warren. It definitely takes patience.
The irony of all this is that I am also calling for a drop in prices this Fall. My prediction is a flat market over the summer and a small downturn between September and December. I think 2009 will be flat (+/- 5%).
June 20th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Dave, kudos for sticking around. Personally I feel that this market is set for a downturn, but unless you think the sky is falling around here, you are assumed to be a paid shill, or an absolute moron.
June 20th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
What will happen to the imbalanced borderline retarded warehouse worker who makes Twenty Five thousand dollars a year who has bought a few pre sales and can’t complete on the sales or tries to subsidize the renter by $2k per month.
Well that borderline retard has done better in this market than most of the bears here. As a minimum, he put down only 5 to 10%, while the market has moved likely at least 10% since he bought. So, his equity likely has at least doubled. The market has yet to correct in price so he is still ahead.
What’s happens when speculators can’t complete? The developer is left holding the bag. As I showed before, it would take a serious market correction before they lose out.
What happens if he closes and has to subsidize the renter? I guess he ends up selling.
If you think your example represents this market, then think again.
If 75% of the thousands and thousands of units that are completing downtown are owned by flippers that means a high percentage people who end up filing bankruptcy.
What happens when a large percentage of potential buyers have bankruptcy on their credit file? Is that a good economic thing?
Ha ha… 75% being flippers… Why not just pick 100%?
FYI… The foreclosure rate is only something like 0.15% right now. That means 99.85% of mortgages are being paid.
You have so many ifs in your scenario that I can’t take your question seriously.
Why are you pumping real estate on so many blogs at once that you got mixed up and cross posted? Are you employed in PR? If not then you have to be pretty stupid to get confused amongst only a few blogs? You sound like a PR Lobbyist, what line of work are you in?
Let’s put the conspiracies to rest already. I am not pumping real estate. I am just giving you my opinions. I am not here to make money in any way. I am not getting paid to post. I am not employed in PR. Nothing I say will convince of this.
Why bother asking? Really? What would convince you?
June 20th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Richard, WTF????
You said, “25,000 more units under construction”. How in the hell can you or anybody not get this doesn’t represent NEW product?
I showed the data for unoccupied new units to the end of 2007. Sorry that I don’t have the 2008 data in front of me. Any muppet can see that the trend over the last 5 years has been DOWN. This does not support your case that all this new product isn’t being absorbed. There is nothing misleading about that at all.
Which part was, ‘wrong’? Uhhh… pretty much all it.
June 20th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Wow – it’s sure heating up in here. Things must really be turning…
June 20th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Taraba – apologies for Krish, er…the troll.
June 20th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!!!
It’s happened! The very first MLS $100K+ price drop in the West End…
MLS# V708346 was posted May 15th, at a price of 599,000 ($658/sqft). That’s actually not a bad price (er, relatively speaking with all the other condo’s in the west end averaging $600/sqft).
Then, on May 29th, it was lowered in price to 529K ($581/sqft).
Finally, today, it was lowered again to 490K ($538/sqft)! This is practically bargain territory for the west end (only a block from the beach!).
Still too high, though. It should be down around $400/sqft. Though I do get the feeling it’s one of those “estate” sales where grandma passed away and the family now wants to get rid of the place fast. That makes me kinda sad…
Obviously the seller is someone who knows that the market has popped and is trying to unload. I bet they’d seriously consider a offer of $250K in about a month.
June 20th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
“That graph show inventory till 2007 anyway,dave was refering to a future inventory for new homes this is a 2008 passed six months go try to find those unit in the market not to mislead you but just wanted to bring that into your attention.”
maybe. still, his reply was
“19,000 UNITS CURRENTLY FOR SALE = S-U-P-P-L-Y
25,000 MORE UNITS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION =
H-U-G-E S-U-P-P-L-Y
LOOK OUT BELOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wrong”
which part of that was “wrong”?
June 20th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
should read future
June 20th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
FUTUR SUPPLY for downtown peninsula and surrounding area
Currently under construction & expected for 2008:
Of the 2743 If Onni’s 1022 Seymour actually remains rental, then we are already at 96% sold out for 2008 delivery.
For 2009 of 2997 scheduled completions 2925 are already sold which is 98%
For 2010 There are only 714 scheduled completions for downtown.
For 2011 There are only 279 units are scheduled for completion.
Downtown Vancouver is one of Canada’s most vibrant city centres and the Greater Vancouver’s primary employment, retail and tourism centre. With over 80,000 people already living downtown there are conservative projections for an additional 20,000 residents and a total of 175,000 jobs by 2021.(from the old link but population has changed dramatically over the period wait for latest number)
http://www.tc.gc.ca/programs/e.....onplan.htm
Ladies and gentlemens there is no bubble in vancouver go home and relax and please tell that to your family and friends.
NO SUPPLY=NO BUBBLE,THANK YOU.
June 20th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Richard,
That graph show inventory till 2007 anyway,dave was refering to a future inventory for new homes this is a 2008 passed six months go try to find those unit in the market not to mislead you but just wanted to bring that into your attention.
June 20th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
“Currently under construction means new home so it doesn’t matter if 2000 at#44 use it or not it has a same meaning.”
there’s 2 numbers there. 19,000 is NOT new. The other is 25,000. He says it’s an all time low. Clearly, you can’t apply that to the 19,000 figure as it’s existing. The only other possibility is he is referring to the 25,000 figure. Looking at the graph he’s referenced, the graph is going UP, not down. so again, that’s still inconsistent. if it were at an all time low, it would be going down, not up.
i am not saying dave is deliberately misleading, i am saying his response is misleading. if i hurt his feelings, i apologize. however, it was still misleading. sue me.
June 20th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
For many minority and lower-income families who viewed homeownership as a stepping stone to building wealth and passing it on to their children, the transition from owning to renting has been the unraveling of a dream. Burdened now by debt and bad credit, some of these families are worse off than they were before they bought.
June 20th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
“19,000 UNITS CURRENTLY FOR SALE = S-U-P-P-L-Y
Wrong,19000 units are for resale=owner occupied”
Actually 19,000=vacant
Here’s a question for you Dave
What will happen to the imbalanced borderline retarded warehouse worker who makes Twenty Five thousand dollars a year who has bought a few pre sales and can’t complete on the sales or tries to subsidize the renter by $2k per month.
If 75% of the thousands and thousands of units that are completing downtown are owned by flippers that means a high percentage people who end up filing bankruptcy.
What happens when a large percentage of potential buyers have bankruptcy on their credit file? Is that a good economic thing?
Why are you pumping real estate on so many blogs at once that you got mixed up and cross posted? Are you employed in PR? If not then you have to be pretty stupid to get confused amongst only a few blogs? You sound like a PR Lobbyist, what line of work are you in?
June 20th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
“which as i have said, does NOT contain the word “NEW”
Richard,
Currently under construction means new home so it doesn’t matter if 2000 at#44 use it or not it has a same meaning.
June 20th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
” Reference page 55
Vancouver CMA Housing Starts
Units
Multi‐Family Construction Comprises 80% ofNew Homes
OR
refer to the post#44
currently under construction=new homes”
post 44 is exactly what i was quoting. There is no word “NEW” in post 44. page 55 of the bcrea report is in post 48, which is in response to post 44, which as i have said, does NOT contain the word “NEW”. So why would you reply a post that doesn’t have “NEW” in it with a reference to “NEW”? and in case you missed it, post 48 comes AFTER post 44, as it is a reply. get it?
June 20th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Reference page 55
Vancouver CMA Housing Starts
Units
Multi‐Family Construction Comprises 80% ofNew Homes
OR
refer to the post#44
currently under construction=new homes
June 20th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
“The post referred to NEW home inventory. Have a look.
Nothing misleading at all.
Enough of the accusations. You bears are sure grouchy after hibernation.”
Okay. i must be mistaken then. This is the post I assumed you were replying to
”
if
NO SUPPLY=NO BUBBLE
then
SUPPLY = BUBBLE
19,000 UNITS CURRENTLY FOR SALE = S-U-P-P-L-Y
25,000 MORE UNITS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION =
H-U-G-E S-U-P-P-L-Y
LOOK OUT BELOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
”
Where in there is the word “NEW”?
if i’m mistaken, i apologize. otherwise, ….
June 20th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Retail sales rebound
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....etail.html
June 20th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Taraba,you fucking idiot,are you looking for the response without any argument?
June 20th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
haha good rant
June 20th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Why do people insist on feeding the troll … just let him be…
June 20th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
yeah, but weren’t you responding to a post regarding inventory? that makes your reply misleading. the original post was “inventory”, not “new home inventory”, but you replied with “new home inventory
The post referred to NEW home inventory. Have a look.
Nothing misleading at all.
Enough of the accusations. You bears are sure grouchy after hibernation.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Hillary
“Why do you keep attacking me?”
Because you deserve it. You consistently bring up false or misleading statistics, your occasional interpretations of relevant data are all done using methods which are not only considered “unscientific” they’re commonly called “Voodoo Economics”. What’s more you know that you’re spreading intentionally misleading, incorrect and misinterpreted information but you keep doing it anyhow.
Is that reason enough or should I go on?
June 20th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
“Why do you keep attacking me? What I said was 100% factually correct. I said NEW homes, not total inventory.”
yeah, but weren’t you responding to a post regarding inventory? that makes your reply misleading. the original post was “inventory”, not “new home inventory”, but you replied with “new home inventory”.
June 20th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Great list of links today Pope! The UK and Canada.com articles are all quite amazing. Thank goodness the bulls still have some deals left!
June 20th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Thanks Alex. You misunderstood my second statement, which is mostly my fault by partly yours for not considering the context of the paragraph (i.e. talking about risks to the developer).
I missed three words… The risk TO THE DEVELOPER of the former…
June 20th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Drachen,
There is no need to use this forum to kill your free time,when you don’t have solid argument it would be better to increase your productivity at work.Learn some thing from strataman,he use to pay an employee so he can post his comment here but now he likes to work and pay himself.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
I’ll chalk that up as a ‘yes, I don’t know’, Drachen.
Why do you keep attacking me? What I said was 100% factually correct. I said NEW homes, not total inventory.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Ok, Drachen dealt nicely with dave’s second lie, now for his first one (on this thread):
First he says
then speculators who purchased assignments will lose out. But, the developers have more of a buffer than many assume.
Now that things look flat going forward, the developers who know what they are doing will win out.
Then he pulls a perfect 180 and says
The first is the risk of speculators not completing while the second is the risk of the developer not completing. My point was that the risk of the former is lower than some here are assuming. I agree with your point that more developers are not going to be able to complete due to poor cost control.
Developers go under in all market
Just trying to help you stay on message here. Internal consistency is important when you’re making it up as you go along, and even more so in an interactive medium where rebuttals aren’t at the discretion of an editor.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Whoops… ignore the above post. Wrong forum.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Hillary
“NEW homes… new home… new home…”
Last time I checked it was called the housing market. Not the new market. I guess that’s because it’s all really just one market. Your tunnel vision on one sector of the market (one sector that you don’t even have new information on and are merely hypothesizing about at that!) just shows how weak your arguments are.
It’s a little like a car salesman responding to a customer who’s just told him the car has no engine with, “Yeah but the transmission is brand new!”
June 20th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Interesting idea. Do you have evidence to back this up? How do you respond (or not respond) to the possibility that many people in BC, especially those younger bracket are thinking of moving to provinces with cheaper housing and better job prospects?
1980 2007
20 – 24 262 310 UP
25 – 29 250 296 UP
30 – 34 235 288 UP
35 – 39 184 320 UP
40 – 44 150 347 UP
45 – 50 140 361 UP
50 – 54 138 337 UP
55 – 60 137 297 UP
In thousands…
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/D.....erpage=all
See slide 43 for projections 10 years from now. You will see that the Echo generation causes a BIG jump in the total number of people in the 25 to 40 age bracket. The funny thing about that is those happen to be first time home buyers. Should make for a good bull run!
http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economi.....hCheck.pdf
RE – Possibility of people leaving… Interprovincial migration is a net positive into BC. Nuff said. Also, see the projections for our future demographic distribution.
The problem with the current boom is (as was noted in many other blogs) is that we are in a low inflation/interest rate environment. Any transition to higher inflation/interest rates will hit people who buy at the peak much more than in previous booms.
Is the glass half empty of half full? Sure, more inflation benefits prior purchasers more, but less inflation is still a good thing. It still works in their favour.
You are assuming that we have a significant correction to begin with. Prices could very well plateau going forward (i.e. +/- 5 to 10%). Even with a little inflation per year (say within BOC targets), I would expect that inflation wins out on any potential correction over a 5 year period.
If you buy at the peak and can afford it, then things will be even more affordable 5 years down the road.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Dave,
2000 don’t know how to read the graphics that’s why they are up for ride.
June 20th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
oh boy its going to be a bad one!!!!
June 20th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Dave:
Did you actually look at the slide you referred me to?
It shows an avalanche of supply that will be coming online. At some point all these projects will be finished. And if you refer to the dismal BC population growth statistics throughout the report you links, that paints a very bearish picture indeed.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
jeffjeffjeff,
I am glad to see that you are very very disappointed by the resale home spin and you forgot to spell your name in excitement.it could be the first time that some one revealed a secret to you,no?
June 20th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
I doubt he has seen the inventory data for NEW homes. The reality of it is that the majority of condos are pre-sold. So although the resale home numbers have gone up, it doesn’t necessarily follow that new home numbers have gone up appreciably. The reality is that new home listings are at very low levels compared to historical data.
June 20th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
“Yet another misleading statistic you’re spewing out.”
Drachen,
Your head officer Mohican an un official inventory claimer did not split the stats by months or year of completion nor does he know how to read the stats so he choose to go for vacation.
when your heads are down in shame do you have any data to back up spike?
June 20th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Wrong,19000 units are for resale=owner occupied
LOL!!!!
Thanks for the belly laugh SATV. Sorry you’re going to go broke though.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Some developers may refuse to lower prices. In the final analysis developers are business people who want there businesses to survive and they thrive on challenges.
Most contributors here probably subscribe to Greaterfool.ca and have seen this, but in case you haven’t…….
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008.....ia-twofer/
I don’t have any info on how successful this scheme was.
June 20th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
“The Canadian companies have the ability to sit on the sidelines if they don’t want to build.”
And they will want to fully employ all their existing staff to sit on the sidelines with them? At least in the US they were keeping people employed!
June 20th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Yes, sit on the sidelines … why make money with smaller profit margins when you can make no money at all. Pure capitalism, pure genius.
June 20th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Hillary
“Wrong. New home inventory is at record lows.”
Umm that chart goes up to the end of 2007, inventory didn’t start to spike upwards until January of this year. Yet another misleading statistic you’re spewing out.
June 20th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
19,000 UNITS CURRENTLY FOR SALE = S-U-P-P-L-Y
Wrong,19000 units are for resale=owner occupied
June 20th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
That’s a good observation Aleks.
It is also important to recognize the difference between Canadian and US development companies. Many US companies are publically traded, while Canadian developers are mostly privately owned.
The Canadian companies have the ability to sit on the sidelines if they don’t want to build. However, the US companies don’t have the luxury because private companies have to keep active to try and meet quarterlies.
June 20th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
I doubt we’re going to see developers going out of business or even slashing prices any time soon. In the US, developers are just now going bankrupt, and a lot of them are still refusing to cut prices. If we follow the same pattern, that means it won’t happen here till 2010, after the Olympics.