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Friday Free-for-all!

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167 Comments

Friday means open-topic time here at Vancouvercondo.info, so lets do a round up of some stories from the week:

-National housing boom has come to an end
-Rental restrictions dampen market
-Speculator tax a bad idea?
-No easy fix for affordable housing
-Investing for stagflation
-Oil above $140 a barrel
-How will gas prices affect real estate?
-Selling in a changing market: be patient
-Downtown is the place to be!
-BOC Speech on real estate & monetary policy
-Rising rates could slow US recovery

So what are you seeing out there? Post you news links, anecdotes and thoughts here and have an excellent weekend!

note: any conversation on real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. when posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Thanks!

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mouse

Why bother reading this thums up2? Isnt it a waste of time?

Originally I could not understand, english too poor.

Then I could not understand, does not make sense.

But do keep revealing the new aliases, so I can save time.

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Anonymous

"Sellers holding out for inflated prices have not been able to keep the bubble from bursting in the past, nor can they keep prices from crashing this time around, as evidenced by the current bubble markets in the US, UK, Spain, and other parts of the world."

I think this formerly white hot real estate market in Vancouver is end very ugly. It's funny I don't much comments about how the rich foreignors or the Olympics are going to keep this market up. We're getting closer to 2010 each day; yet listings continue to increase, sales declining, inventory is building and many new listings are being priced sharply to undercut competing properties.

But that's my opinion.

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TP

London: Insane isn't it? In fact, as with previous crashes, the stubborn sellers are what create a glut of listings which eventually lead to an overcorrection.

In Vancouver this is exactly what is happening. We have record high listings with record high starts, and sales are on the decline.

Sellers holding out for inflated prices have not been able to keep the bubble from bursting in the past, nor can they keep prices from crashing this time around, as evidenced by the current bubble markets in the US, UK, Spain, and other parts of the world.

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Londonernow

This idea that if seller's don't get asking prices they just won't sell is a dream. It works for a very short while until reality resurfaces as forced sellers come in. The banks tried that initially last year (just not pricing assets at market) and you can see how well that worked out for them.

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patriotz

From the above;

Figures out last week showed that faced with soaring household bills and petrol prices, Britons were already almost running on empty, saving less of their income than at any time in the last 50 years.

Substitute "British Columbians" for "Britons", and it's just as true.

But still nobody here (in the public eye, anyway) is willing to point out that the emperor has no clothes.

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Re-diculous

Just in case we needed more evidence that RE is falling in other parts of the world….

Crash worries grow over U.K. housing market
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTG…

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patriotz

“All remaining homes come with a free car!”

Gee, where have I seen that sales tactic before?

It different from the US here folks. Because the "experts" say so.

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-A-

RobKrisshKrassh and Aaron: I hope you haven’t abdicated your professional obligation to your prospects and not have informed them of what a great opportunity they may be missing if they don’t jump in now during this brief lull. The market is about to get white hot again, I have done some basic research and discovered that According to Statistics Canada’s latest measure of the total number of households in Canada is 12.4 million. Therefore, given that the population of the country is 33 million, the average household must be comprised of about 2.7 individuals. Since the rate of population growth is 3% per year, the base number of new homes that is required is 375,000 units per year. However in the last few years housing starts have been around 125,000 and therefore we have a housing deficit. You should grab… Read more »

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Vansanity

PW – I called the realtor, the car is a Kia, whoopee!! or $10,000. She didn't seem really interested in giving any details of the place or the car. 11 units left had to pry it out of her.

Jesse – Thanks for the Landcor report! Finally some hard factual data on foreign investors.

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jesse

TraderP, you can look at the report (PDF) from Landcor to see how many non-Canadian buyers are in the market (page 22 of 26 gives the actual numbers). There are very few international buyers in the market and they are not increasing in numbers or total spend year-over-year.

If you're at a party and someone brings up "foreign investors" you can tell them:

1) Only 5% of the total sales are from buyers outside of BC

2) Only 1% of the total sales are from buyers outside of Canada

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TraderP

Does anyone here know the status of american buyers in the local market? I have heard rumors from friends in the industry that pre-construction high-end condo buyers from the south are walking away from their deposits because of cash flow problems back home or they're simply liquidating their condos here now while they're ahead. Any information would be appreciated. btw, this is my first post. Neither a bull nor bear. Just curious.

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Patiently Waiting

"All remaining homes come with a free car!"

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rfs/737597915.h…

I've been watching this townhouse complex in Queensborough since this phase came on the market in Dec 06, and posted about it before. When we went to look at in Spring 07, my wife wouldn't get out of the car. The immediate area is seedy and there is no significant green space, even in the common area. All that for over 400K.

A year and a half since this phase finished, I'd guess almost half the units remain unsold. On the MLS, it says they were built in 2008. NOPE!

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Bubble Lad

I'm with condohype – realtors and the province/sun have no shame – they've ridden the boom for all it was worth, and now that it's gone south they're just going to pretend the whole thing never happened – butter wouldn't melt in their mouths.

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Jingle Balls

"Bill Good rents his apartment, how can you quote anything he says?"

Interesting….. has anybody ever asked Bill Good how many properties he currently ownes,or how many he has flipped? or how involved he may be in property development.

It's a fair question to ask,of someone on the public pulpit.

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Drachen

Fuxxy Logiz

"There is almost unlimited supply of pennies, Demand is almost zero, yet penny isn’t worthless, still the same as when it had demand. Supply and demand FTW."

Pennies are a denomination of a currency, not a commodity.

There is no "pennies" listing on the TSX.

Since they are not openly traded they cannot be subject to the laws of supply and demand.

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condohype

Love that Province article about the cooling market. It's funny that now it's OK for realtors to talk trash about prices. What used to be "Vancouver is a relative bargain on the world market" is now "ridiculous."

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patriotz

Demand is almost zero, yet penny isn’t worthless

It's worth the same as it always was, namely 1/100 of a dollar.

2000 pennies will buy the same as as 20 loonies or a $20 bill.

Different units of any currency are fungible, and supply and demand for pennies is the same as for any other coin or bill.

What matters is the total supply and demand for any fiat currency, which can and does change, which is why we have inflation, and possibly (but not likely IMHO) deflation.

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Thums up2

BDK,

You and other should buy on one common ground that bears are loser-loser by hpi and loser by age.would you like to buy when your age is not productive to pay the monthly payments? think about it?

Stop smoking in your balcony take off your NYC CAP and stop telling people around coal harbour that you are a D.J. just buy now and tell your wife that you have quit your gang of smokers to become homeowner,got it?.

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BDK

Kriish/browntown/thumsup

Bill Good rents his apartment, how can you quote anything he says?

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blueskies

here's an alternative:

http://tinyurl.com/4tyjof

For years people have been swapping homes for vacations. Today, the idea of permanent exchanges is gaining support among disillusioned property owners struggling to sell in a glacial real estate market.

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Joe Stalin

If you rent from the bourgeois you are the problem. I repeat you are the problem.

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Fuxxy Logiz

Bulls will win in the long run, it's pure science.

Bulls produce methane which causes global warming which is melting the icecaps which will kill off the polar bears. The bulls will then march north and eat the grass that can now grow there. Bulls 1 Bears 0.

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Bubble Lad

Having trouble posting…update on the 1.6M poster child for Vancouver RE – now at just 1.2M –

<a href="http://www.globalauctioneers.ca/mylistings.html?URL=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.globalauctioneers.ca%2Fwps%2Fmylistings%2F7836%2FListingDetails.form%3FlistingId%3D4848792″ target=”_blank”>http://www.globalauctioneers.ca/mylistings.html?U…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.globalauctioneers.ca%2Fwps%2Fmylistings%2F7836%2FListingDetails.form%3FlistingId%3D4848792

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Bubble Lad

Here's your favorite Vancouver house (and mine..)

http://www.globalauctioneers.ca/mylistings.html

Now at 400K off from the original 1.6 M (or best offer) – go Bulls go! Confusing, since real estate "always goes up".

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Patiently Waiting

I have feeling that when the market crashes, somebody will be standing around with their thumbs up their browntown.

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