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June 27th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Thums up2: You are a close minded fool with your head up your ass. I will laugh at your future misfortune, you deserve it.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
hey jesse nutslap! leave the 2% for your milk cowboy! land, milk and oil’s are more expensive than wage growth, even bdk’s! use government polution divedend cheque for downpayment at 1212 howe cowslapper!
June 27th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
I’ve reread your response a couple of times and I still can’t figure it out,
If someone wants or needs to sell he is going to have to take whatever a buyer offers. Buyers control the selling price. Always.
Someone always needs to sell, but nobody ever needs to buy. Don’t forget that.
June 27th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
WHERE IS SUPPLY?
In housing sector supplier is not a single largest producer of housing units- A developer for one location is a supplier of atleast 300 units,A home owner is a supplier of single unit with lots of choices to manage the small supply.If unit does not sell on current market prices there are lots of alternate to keep it going.
houses are not like tomatoes or milk canes,houses does not expire over hundred terms periods.
What brings down the prices in housing sector? those reasons are:Income,Affordability,Inflation,Interest rates,
employement conditions,Socio economy and political environment,nature,weather condition,floods,huricanes,
threats,way too much over supply.
From the Income Groups we need only 25,000 new people to take the prices trend ahead,if we don’t find 25,000 new people to carry over the trend-we already have 25,000 people who own those units.
There is not even a case that we don’t have many people to support further growth, we do have those higher income people- some who wishfully sitting out of market and some who intentionally sold their homes to buy again later.
We don’t have any other internal or external reason to help crash the market.some one will bait those sitting out idiots later on the blogs but so far to make vancouver housing crash we must get over supply of new homes not the resale homes.
“We don’t have over supply of new homes that’s why vancouver real estate does not carry bubble in it”.-mind it
June 27th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
#89 patriotz Says:
June 27th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
You can have all the supply in the world and no demand and prices will only come down if the seller wants or needs it to, no other reason.
“Supply” means someone wants or needs to sell, jackass.
I’ve reread your response a couple of times and I still can’t figure it out, I’m sorry I don’t speak jackass.
Maybe you can explain to me how supply equals the supplier having to lower prices. They don’t need to, only if they want to, they have the option of not lowering prices and thus no sale.
How come there’s been no links about all the bears wandering into the city, maybe the bears have realized where the action is. No coffee shops in the bush.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Inflation adjusted property prices (for high density) are flat and in direct line with incomes. The 5% is fallacious because inflation was higher over the past generation. These days average incomes grow 2% per year (NOT 5% as is repeatedly and incorrectly claimed) and so go property prices.
June 27th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
“it’s his oft repeated ‘fact’ that RE always goes up an average of 5% a year. Oddly enough he’s never cited any actual source for his information… I wonder why that could be?”
Drachen, he’s right in a sense. What Dave doesn’t tell you is IT’S THE WRONG STAT TO LOOK AT. The 5% wage growth is looking at an individual’s income over time, not average wage growth. In terms of house prices it’s average wage growth that matters and that’s firmly fixed at inflation. Bus-ted.
June 27th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Simple confusion between confused and not confused. Not confused thinks “price” means asking price. Confused thinks “price” means selling price. That’s all, no confusion here.
Throw a new term in the mix, to make it “transaction price”, all confusion disappears and prices do, indeed drop.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Has anyone heard of a Vancouver or BC fund that will speculate on RE short sales? Is short selling even allowed by law in BC?
I just ask that because I read about a California Fund similar to that that made over 1000% gains in less than two years.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
@Me2
“Do bears make more money then bulls in the long term? yes/no”
Possibly one of the worst questions you could poise in an attempt to make yourself sound credible.
As I said the other night, to be a bear in one market simply makes you a bull in another.
Example: If you are an RE bear right now, you would by default be an RE Short bull.
“I’m just really impressed with all the armchair millionaires here that can so easily forecast the future.”
When something is so plainly obvious as the massive RE bubble in Vancouver, it no longer becomes a forecast, but a bygone conclusion. To that end, why bother putting up a fight on this obvious fact and start putting that optimistic attitude towards exploring methods of generating real money over the course of this downturn. Forget about the scraps of your possible 1% or 2% appreciation over the next few years!
Has anyone heard of a Vancouver or BC fund that will speculate on RE short sales? Is short selling even allowed by law in BC?
Are there any publicly traded companies that specialize in personal bankruptcy in BC/Canada?
Any other ideas as to where the money will flow once/if the commodity bubble bursts in Canada?
June 27th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
You can have all the supply in the world and no demand and prices will only come down if the seller wants or needs it to, no other reason.
“Supply” means someone wants or needs to sell, jackass.
June 27th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
@Confused
“How does the law of supply and demand sometimes “not necessarily” apply to any asset? It always applies.”
In accounting, land is always treated in a special way. Building however is not.
Maybe this is where the “bull” folks are getting confused.
June 27th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
For the record, browntown cracks me up.
yes! an erudite satv with a scatological bias…
June 27th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
hey confused, yeah confused alright, i think you confused self with dracken! you like rockets? must be draken transgendered! ok nutknobs if land supply go down and more people go to the land can price go down! well maybe but i want yes or no slappys!
June 27th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
“Increased supply and decreased demand does not have to equal lower prices. You can have all the supply in the world and no demand and prices will only come down if the seller wants or needs it to, no other reason.”
Ha, ha. That’s funny. Your scenario only works in a world where there are zero real estate sales. Like Dave himself said, people still buy and sell in bear markets. The transactions just happen at a lower price. As long as there is one sale, the market price of comps declines. Just like how one sale at a high price in a boom raises the value of comps.
You should apply for a nobel prize if you think you’ve proven that the law of supply and demand does not work! Unfortuantly, they only hand those out in the real word. Not on planet zero sales.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
“I think it’s impossible to answer your question with a simple yes or no.”
What, does the law of supply and demand not apply to real estate? If it does the answer to my question is “yes”.
I don’t think they have repealed the law of supply and demand even thought the bulls may wish it.
How does the law of supply and demand sometimes “not necessarily” apply to any asset? It always applies. The complex factors dave always refers to are factors affecting supply and demand.
Look at the numbers since January and you know which way supply and demand are going and therefore, which way prices will go. Down.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I’ll answer your question.
No.
Increased supply and decreased demand does not have to equal lower prices. You can have all the supply in the world and no demand and prices will only come down if the seller wants or needs it to, no other reason.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Confused…sorry to say, but I think it’s impossible to answer your question with a simple yes or no. In this regard, I see where Dave is coming from…but that’s as far as it goes. My answer would be “not necessarily always, but in this case, definitely yes”
June 27th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
For the record, browntown cracks me up. I can’t understand a word of it, but man…it’s like Southpark run through babelfish a few times or something. Classic!
June 27th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
I think that dave clutters up this blog with so much blathering, he needs to be pinned down to a straight answer.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Dave said: “Answer this question with a one word answer (yes or no): Have you stopped beating your wife? ”
Dave,
You seem to be logically challenged. Unlike your question, mine does not assume any unproven facts.
Now, for the third time, anwer my question with a “yes” or “no”.
It was asked so long ago with no answer, here it is again: Does increasing suppy and decreasing demand lead to lower prices in real estate?
For the third time, I dare you to anwwer.
Dave, the more you evade the question, the more you respond with childish insults the lower your credibility sinks. Here’ some advice for you: I don’t think that slimey politician-type rhetoric works on blogs.
Answer the question.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=48
Back to the topics on the Free For ALL.
The Market is hooped and there is no disputing it.
Read the articles, crunch the numbers, call any realtor in the book and tell them you have a property to sell and see what he/she says about the market.
And posting under different names here won’t make anyone buy your condo Krissh/browntown/informer/thumsup.
June 27th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
hey bdk nutjobber! thanks for leaving corner office early! thanks gods for real estate inflation! maybe some change ready for 1212 howe!! yeah hey punface maybe forgot immigrant left calgary to come here! high price house might as well leave caspertown! come here pay a bit more ballslap!
June 27th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
My Bad
Browntown/Satv/Krissh/Informer/Thumsup or whatever his/her nutjob self is calling him/her self today =
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....3&t=48
June 27th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Browntown= forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=48
Get back to your forklift or better yet why don’t you become one of those religious nutjobs that chant nonsense on the street corners downtown? Or go chant your nonsensical “real estate” ideas. You might even have some spare change thrown at you and you can go invest it!
June 27th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
I have a lot of friends in Alberta and several of them keep posting facebook status updates about the problems they are having selling their homes. I’m starting to think it will be painful even for bears to watch when it starts here.
June 27th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
yeah, browntowns out of warehouse and ready to kick some bear!! nuts! yeah dracken likes rockets, time machine and balls too!! everything but job and commitment! wife waiting for westside mansion after renting scheme pays off! ha ha ha yeah jr, real economist, maybe fail out of finance at douglas college! real estate train forgot j.r.! hey betamax, beta went out of style slapnut with last crash in 80′s! you be renting for decades slappy! have fun nutman!
June 27th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
CONFUSED: Answer this question with a one word answer (yes or no): Have you stopped beating your wife?
If you spew any gibberish other than the one word “yes” or “no” answer we know you are a BS snake oil salesman. If you ignore the question, we know you are full of crap. Answer the question. I dare you.
June 27th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Me2
“What amazes me is how many people can forecast the bust but can’t forecast the boom.”
That’s always the way. Warren Buffett would not be the richest investor in the world if there were some way to forecast booms in that way. He is the richest investor in the world because he knows that if you find the fundamental valuation of something sooner or later it will return to that valuation.
I read a good anecdote about the tech boom once, the author was friends with a brilliant market analyst on Wall St. He shorted tech stocks twice but missed the mark, the third time he put the longest term possible on it and sank the rest of his savings into shorting the market. Two months after they expired the market collapsed. The moral of the story is, “The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay liquid.”
Just because we can tell you the market is irrational does not mean we can tell you when it will return to normality. However the recent inventory spike is a common denominator with all of the big bust cities in the states. That does not mean the bust is absolutely positively going to happen this year but it does mean that it’s incredibly likely (I’d give it a 99% or greater chance). We can also tell you approximately how far it will fall (though there is some debate about whether it will exceed 50% by a lot or a little).
Fundamentals are everything. If you don’t believe me look at Warren Buffett’s account balance…
June 27th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
*l* I haven’t said that it was easy or even possible to do it the other way around. I’m just really impressed with all the armchair millionaires here that can so easily forecast the future. Like I asked should I short oil? yes/no Should I short corn? yes/no
Should I continue posting here? yes/no
Do bears make more money then bulls in the long term? yes/no
June 27th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Drachen: I stand corrected.
Me2: do you find it easier to predict that an overpriced market will eventually correct or that a specific market will get swept up in speculative fervor? If you have the ability to predict the latter you must be extremely wealthy by now as long as you also know when to sell.
June 27th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Me2
“*I* learn how to read, I didn’t bring up the time machine that was drachens post.”
Well actually you did bring up the time machine, I just pointed it out that your perspective made a time machine necessary. Otherwise why bother pointing out such trends? Someone who invested in Nortel or Enron at the right time and got out at the right time would have made lots of money too. The problem is most people didn’t get out at the right time, just as most people will not get out at the right time for the Real Estate bubble.
June 27th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
What amazes me is how many people can forecast the bust but can’t forecast the boom. Guess everyone on here is rich by playing the futures market. Should I be shorting oil? How about corn?
June 27th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Mr. Beautiful
“as far as I know Dave never said prices would go up 5% a year”
Dave says:
“That’s a 5% growth rate for the condo year over year, which is fairly conservative.”
“Long term RE growth has been greater than 4% over the long term.”
“I think 5% real estate appreciation is fairly conservative. One could argue for 6 to 7% appreciation”
I could spend a while and find a half dozen other instances of him saying it, but what’s the point, it’s his oft repeated “fact” that RE always goes up an average of 5% a year. Oddly enough he’s never cited any actual source for his information… I wonder why that could be?
June 27th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
*l* learn how to read, I didn’t bring up the time machine that was drachens post.
54Drachen Says:
June 27th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Good to see the bears can only read what they want.
I’m starting to understand why you are confused.
June 27th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Dave wrote: In a tight market (~3 MOI), prices go up, in a balanced market (~6 MOI), prices remain stable and in a buyers market (~9 MOI), prices go down.
Nope. According to Mohican’s graph, over 6 MOI, prices GO DOWN:
http://langley-financial-plann.....-mode.html
We are at roughly 7.5 MOI now. Can you hear the sound of the bubble bursting?
June 27th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Drachen said: “Typically boats don’t sink so there shouldn’t have been any worries on the Titanic after it hit the iceberg right?”
Liked that.
Dave said: So yes, inventory can increase, sales can decrease yet prices can still go up.
Yes, but you’re just looking at the first month’s change. You think you’ll get a shift and then everything holds steady again? After one month you’re at 4.5MOI in your example. But after another month of +15%/-15% you’re at 6MOI. Next month you’re at 8.5MOI.
Your answer is like saying “Sure that artery is opened up real bad but you’ve only lost a pint in the last 20 seconds. People donate more than that and are fine.”
June 27th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
I studied economics in university and I will observe that you seem disinclined to read the tea leaves. What has happened in Vancouver this Spring is not a gradual move from a very hot to a balanced market. It has been a sudden and significant reversal which shows no sign of abating. It is characteristic of the beginning stages of a correction reminiscent of what has happened in Vancouver prior to the last four corrections. It is also mirrors what has happened in many frothy US markets and other markets around the world.
You can characterize our current market any way you like, but I suggest to you with no small amount of precedent to back me up, that it is but a whistle stop on a down train. Maybe you should move from your position in the caboose, and check out the view from the locomotive.
June 27th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
26 years old $60000 between on a $365000 condo. There’s still a few more people willing to take a shot even at the top.
Prices are still going up because only suckers are buying.
we’ll be farther ahead in equity when we move somewhere bigger in a year or two…
The assumption that they’ll flip in a year or two will be a bitter pill in a year or two when sales volume is in the toilet and they owe more than market value. I hope they like the place, because they’ll be living there for decades…and that’s the best case scenario.
June 27th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
If you had this time machine would you have bought 4yrs ago
Dude, If I had that time machine I’d be so rich from lotto winnings and stock plays that I’d be too busy traveling the world and living the high life to be concerned about buying in Vancouver. Right now I’d be hanging out on a beach in Spain and thinking about calling the helicopter in so I could have dinner in Paris.
You’re right the bashing isn’t necessary though, as far as I know Dave never said prices would go up 5% a year – he said he expects them to drop soon.
June 27th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Me2,
You bring up a “time machine” when I asked a simple yes or no question about supply and demand. Last I heard this blog was about RE and economics not science fiction.
Geez, how old are you. You can’t answer a yes or no question and you talk about time machines. You sound like my 5 year old.
June 27th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Dave,
I guess we have our answer. I posed a “yes” or “no” question to you and you did not answer it. Instead you spouted a bunch of gibberish. You are a con. Who else evades a simple question? “Yes” or “no” anwer Dave, you question evading con!
Me2,
You said “Ask something better instead on wasting everyones time with bear propaganda.”
Well, you seem unable to asnwer a simple yes or no question. I answered your’s but you sill refuse to answer mine. What are you trying to hide? Could it be your insincerity?
June 27th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Dave: blah, blah, blah…sales can decrease yet prices can still go up…blah
Of course, but it’s also how housing markets begin to correct.
We’re mirroring the US boom/bust, just time delayed. You can talk all you want, but it doesn’t change anything.
June 27th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
If you had this time machine would you have bought 4yrs ago or would you have been a renter? yes/no
I could go on and on with this stupid questions. Ask something better instead on wasting everyones time with bear propaganda. Lets have a good discussion instead of the constant bashing non-bears, heck even the modest bears get bashed on here.
June 27th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Answer this question with a one word answer (yes or no): Does increasing suppy and decreasing demand lead to lower prices in real estate?
If you spew any gibberish other than the one word “yes” or “no” answer we know you are a BS snake oil salesman. If you ignore the question, we know you are full of crap. Answer the question. I dare you.
It’s not a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer you dummy. Read my post above and think it through.
Supply and demand are in equilibrium when MOI is around 6. Demand exceeds supply when MOI is around 3 and supply exceeds demand when MOI is around 9.
Get it? Or did you not pick up on reading comprehension in university?
Let’s use an example because I have no confidence that you will understand the above. Let’s say there are 10000 listings and 3,000 sales last month. The MOI is 3, which is a buyers market. Prices keep going up. Now Let’ say inventory goes up 15% and sales drop 15% (your statement). That gives 11,500 inventory/2,550 sales, or an MOI of 4.5, which is still a sellers market. So yes, inventory can increase, sales can decrease yet prices can still go up.
I’m sorry if the math is too complicated for you.
June 27th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
indeed interesting times. most government union contracts are locked into 2010, when they were done a couple years ago i thought they were bit a bit on the rich side but doesn’t look that way now (based on current inflation). nonetheless i think we can all see some deflationary forces picking up now. the beach will be busy this summer but not new condo showrooms. the developers will have a lot of cash out, not much cash in this summer. to what extent that changes their behaviour awaits to be seen.
June 27th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Me2
“Would you have made money if you bought 5yrs ago and sold now? How about 4yrs ago? 3yrs ago?, 2yrs ago? last year? just use a yes/no answer otherwise you’re a bear salesman blah blah blah.”
You know, if you had that kind of “time travel investment machine” like you’d need to take your kind of advice your actual best ratio for earnings/input money would be playing the lottery. If you bought the winning lottery ticket last week would you have made a profit? Answer yes or no.
June 27th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Glad to see all these good news housing stories in the news now. I think the housing in northern BC is tanking now as well.
June 27th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
RIP Krissh/SATV/Thumsup2?informer?browntown
You know the bubble is over when one of Krissh many personalities denied even knowing Krissh.
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....3&t=48
It was fun, now get your bankrupt ass back to the forklift
June 27th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
The above quote was from Bertran Russell. Sorry to be a blog whore.
Have a great weekend, enjoy the sunshine y’all!!