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June 29th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
BDK,
You and other should buy on one common ground that bears are loser-loser by hpi and loser by age.would you like to buy when your age is not productive to pay the monthly payments? think about it?
Stop smoking in your balcony take off your NYC CAP and stop telling people around coal harbour that you are a D.J. just buy now and tell your wife that you have quit your gang of smokers to become homeowner,got it?.
June 29th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Kriish/browntown/thumsup
Bill Good rents his apartment, how can you quote anything he says?
June 29th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
here’s an alternative:
http://tinyurl.com/4tyjof
For years people have been swapping homes for vacations. Today, the idea of permanent exchanges is gaining support among disillusioned property owners struggling to sell in a glacial real estate market.
June 29th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
If you rent from the bourgeois you are the problem. I repeat you are the problem.
June 29th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Bulls will win in the long run, it’s pure science.
Bulls produce methane which causes global warming which is melting the icecaps which will kill off the polar bears. The bulls will then march north and eat the grass that can now grow there. Bulls 1 Bears 0.
June 29th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Having trouble posting…update on the 1.6M poster child for Vancouver RE – now at just 1.2M –
http://www.globalauctioneers.c.....%3D4848792
June 29th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Here’s your favorite Vancouver house (and mine..)
http://www.globalauctioneers.ca/mylistings.html
Now at 400K off from the original 1.6 M (or best offer) – go Bulls go! Confusing, since real estate “always goes up”.
June 29th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
I have feeling that when the market crashes, somebody will be standing around with their thumbs up their browntown.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
There is almost unlimited supply of pennies, Demand is almost zero, yet penny isn’t worthless, still the same as when it had demand. Supply and demand FTW.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
This might be a complex worth monitoring. Currently 7 out of 120 units are for sale.
http://tinyurl.com/3t38ls
June 29th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
“I totally agree, the Sagrada Familia is bitterly disappointing to anyone expecting the majesty of the Powell River mall.”
Agreed,they don’t even have a Dairy Queen.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
“Then there are the references to Spain, which again, is ridiculous, anyone knows Valencia and Barcelona are no match for Sechelt and Powell River.”
I totally agree, the Sagrada Familia is bitterly disappointing to anyone expecting the majesty of the Powell River mall.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Rob, I can’t believe what a nutcase you are.
I was just teasing you. I know real estate is a sure thing. The macro picture is perfect.
We have a very young population with baby boomers only in the ½ million range.
Energy costs don’t matter to us; we have a highly concentrated well developed economy all within short travel distance, and tropical climate.
Furthermore, with ownership levels below 50%, anybody with a pencil can easily figure what a huge untapped market you have left.
The world economy is headed for a boom, and liquidity is set to breach the flood gates, as inflation stays low, and incomes are poised to increase dramatically, add all that to the dismal housing starts we have had in the last few years, and it’s not a mystery that the current shortage will lead to escalating prices for the next twenty years.
WE are different, especially this time.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Maybe you can explain to me how supply equals the supplier having to lower prices.
All else the same, increased supply equals lower prices. To be counted as supply, the unit is owned by somebody who has the intent to sell. You are right in that some non-serious sellers should be considered false supply. Time will tell, but my guess is that MORE supply will come on the market once prices start falling.
June 29th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Maybe you can explain to me how supply equals the supplier having to lower prices.
All else the same, increased supply equals lower prices. To be counted as supply, the unit is owned by somebody who has the intent to sell. You are right in that some non-serious sellers should be considered false supply. Time will tell, but my guess is that MORE supply will come on the market once prices start falling.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
yeah, like bill good says, get ready for next leg up! get in while you can nutbags!
June 29th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Since your quoting the paper Krissh, here’s one for you from todays Province (the most trusted real estate source ever).
http://www.canada.com/theprovi.....726f0cd714
June 29th, 2008 at 11:32 am
hey -a- nutslapper, too bad market leave you behind, lost touch with market not reality nutbagger! no credit crunch here, rbc still have cheap mortgage for those with job for mortgage! 300 bears looking for cheap rental den for decades! canada day coming, get out chequebooks for landlord party!
June 29th, 2008 at 9:56 am
A,
Are you the former robsnumber? why i am asking? because it’s been long time since we have read him.If answer is yes then say yes if answer is no then where is robsnumber?.
Background.
Robsnumber was a poster who established his own blogs against robchipmans increasing wealth but his blogs turn out to be flop show against hpi graph.just too curious to know if he is still around us.anybody?
June 29th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Rob/Dave/KrisshKrassh and dogs, i.e. Newsflash, Tqn, Eastvan Realitycheck:
Don’t waste time on this blog or your blog, you better get out there and grab whatever listings you can before you get priced out of the market forever.
The bears on this blog, including myself, have lost touch with reality. They point out the crash in the US as an indication of things to come here- the Best Place on Earth.
We all know it’s different here. In the US the subprime caused the bubble to burst. In Canada we have 25 year mortgages, fixed rates, and a 20% minimum down payment, so even if there is a connection between sub-primes, defaults and the bubble bursting, it doesn’t apply to Canada.
In the US they overbuilt, not the case in Canada, especially in Vancouver, where it takes a detective just to find a listing.
When the bears get desperate they point to the UK as evidence of how bubbles burst, well again they fail to realize the UK has so much land it was bound to crash, here in Canada especially in BC we have millions of people and very little land.
Our economies are so different as well, UK has cities such as London where tourism is its main economic engine, and we on the other hand have Squamish- a world economic powerhouse.
Then there are the references to Spain, which again, is ridiculous, anyone knows Valencia and Barcelona are no match for Sechelt and Powell River.
June 29th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Off-topic, tongue-in-cheek question:
How many more properties are going to hit the market when people realize they’ll have to sell their home to get an iPhone under Rogers’ announced plans?
June 29th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Hey every one,if you can find good deal some where just grab it while vancouver real estate is on lunch break,there is not enough hopes of bargain-:bloggers source.
Is there any hope for correction or crash?
“I don’t even talk about it anymore. It’s an unrealistic want. It will never happen, it just never will.”-teachers
Jan Mitchell and Zoe Fisolo.
June 29th, 2008 at 8:10 am
RE: CTV piece
Why is it that a discount on a development is news worthy? If Wal-Mart offers 25% sale off patio furniture, should Tony Parsons run a piece on it at 6? I love how they talk to 2 East Van residents (who’ve given up) to get their opinion on how things will never change. Why? “Doesn’t matter they said it, we like it, print it! Now we can call it a ‘balanced article’”. Even though the “story” is a bit bearish and a sign of things to come, who cares? It’s just another advertisement posing as news. All MSM are sellouts. The real question here is: Who’s your Daddy CTV?
June 29th, 2008 at 2:21 am
I think one of the bear theories is the market crashes when almost nobody believes it can.
I think what happens is that the market turns when almost nobody believes it can, and then crashes when people realize that the appreciation is over. Once there are no more gains to be made the rush for the exits begins.
June 29th, 2008 at 1:56 am
wolfey, the last few posts seem fine too me. Its been a lot worse here. Just a bit of lively debate right now.
VancouverGuy, I’ve seen the change in sentiment too. People who were bulls last year, now declaring doubts about the market. I’ve even heard the word “crash” a couple of times. The masses are starting to wake up.
I think one of the bear theories is the market crashes when almost nobody believes it can. I don’t agree with that theory. Neither do I believe that, at the peak, bears generally give-in and buy. That is not what happened in the US. Most bears stood their ground.
BTW I just checked out some of the VOW listings in New West, Coquitlam and Port Moody. A 50K drop doesn’t even make me blink anymore. And I’ve seen the occasional 70K to 100K drops.
June 29th, 2008 at 1:24 am
hey guys…
i thought this blog was about realestate …econ
not mudslinging and name calling
June 28th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
“Yes, there will be a lot of hurt, but it’s not even in the realm of possibility thinking in the minds of Vancouverites at this point. There may be 200 maybe 300 of us bears in the whole province.”
Nope. There are a helluva lot more than that. In my office, we have about 15 people in my division. Of those, five own one home or more (most of us are relatively young). Of the five who own a home, three are selling. Two of the three are selling on the belief that prices are going to go down.
June 28th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
You refer to ‘bulls’ or ‘bears’ as if they’re people. ‘bearish’ or ‘bullish’ is an opinion based on current market fundamentals.
I will also add that since everyone has to put their money somewhere (everyone that has money that is), you have to be bullish about something.
Everyone is both a bull and a bear at the same time. You’re bullish about the things you have money in, and you’re bearish about the things you don’t (or are short in). At any given time.
I was bullish about Vancouver RE in 1983. I was certainly right about that.
I’m bearish now. I think my view will be validated quite shortly.
June 28th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Draper – LOL.
Don’t forget the sound of the Harleys as they make their daily migration south from the Robson St. cappuccino bars. I used to rent a place just off 13th and Granville. In the summer, when you have to keep the windows open for fear of dying of heat stroke, the traffic noise was near deafening all night long.
June 28th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
10 per cent discount on condominiums
in the popular South Granville Vancouver core too! This is the perfect chance for anyone bullish on the local real estate market to get a great deal!
“Things have changed a little bit and hopefully this promotion gets more people in, and we can sell it to them,” says South Granville Lofts Sales Associate Derek Lai.
Shouldn’t be a problem, this is Vancouver after all.. things are different here.
I used to have an office in that building before it was converted to condos for sale – its a great central location, and would make a terrific starter home as long as the steady sound of diesel buses passing through the Granville transit-loop just below all of the north-facing windows doesn’t bug you.
When I was working I was able to wear headphones and listen to music, so even though I could feel the busses going by the sound didn’t bother me at all!
June 28th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
“Do bears make more money then bulls in the long term? yes/no”
I’m surprised you don’t already know this. I won’t get on your case, because I don’t believe its reasonable to expect all people to know all things, but this is pretty simple, so it should be very easy to remember:
You refer to ‘bulls’ or ‘bears’ as if they’re people. ‘bearish’ or ‘bullish’ is an opinion based on current market fundamentals. This means the same person may be extremely ‘bullish’ on real estate at an annual rent ratio of 10, but ‘bearish’ on the very same market at an annual rent ratio of 35.
Whether you are ‘optimistic’ or ‘pessimistic’ about a market has nothing to do with how much money you’ll make off a market unless your optimism or pessimism is based on something.
June 28th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Here’s a good link….
A property developer in Vancouver is offering a 10 per cent discount on condominiums in the popular South Granville area in a bid to sell off unsold units…..
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servle.....lumbiaHome
June 28th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Do bears make more money then bulls in the long term? yes/no
“Bears make money. Bulls make money. Pigs get slaughtered.”
–Anon
June 28th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Good luck to the highly levered 40 year amort recent buyers…..somehow I think there’s already a lot of hurt for those folks already
What hurt? They thought their dog kennel was worth 400K when they bought it, so why should they care what happens to the market price in the future? That’s just some other person’s opinion of what the place is worth. They still have the same property and they’re still making the same payments. So why shouldn’t they be experiencing the same pride of ownership?
My computer is worth a lot less today than what I paid for it but that doesn’t bother me.
I mean, they weren’t expecting to sell the place for more, were they? That would make them speculators.
June 28th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
The Van-Man: nicely said! clear and concise, +10 thumbs up.
June 28th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
I do agree, there are a lot of people with their head in the sand right now. People who are completely oblivious to the perilous state of, not only Canada’s economy, but the global economy in general. It’s shocking and frustrating too.
There are almost daily reports now of Canada’s vulnerability to recession but few are listening. Or want to hear what they are being told. That said, I myself do count a few people among my friends who are very leery of BC’s economic future and have prepared. Once the media really picks up on it things are going to gather pace. And fast. It always happens.
June 28th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
“Subprime wasn’t the cause of the credit bubble…”
Alt-A is bigger and nastier. Wait until 2009.
June 28th, 2008 at 11:54 am
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
“Good luck to the highly levered 40 year amort recent buyers…..somehow I think there’s already a lot of hurt for those folks already as they now find all those FOR SALE signs everywhere!!!”
I don’t think those folks see it that way yet. In fact the other day on the radio Bill Good was referring to the current state of the real estate market, as a slight cooling of the market as it prepares itself for the next leg up!
Yes, there will be a lot of hurt, but it’s not even in the realm of possibility thinking in the minds of Vancouverites at this point. There may be 200 maybe 300 of us bears in the whole province.
This is why it will be a calamity of historical proportions, for the masses it will be a complete surprise, and the media won’t report it until everyone is up to their chin in the quick sand.
As Mr. Tulips would say:
Tick Tock…..
June 28th, 2008 at 11:31 am
“Recently people have been making decisions based on heart and not head. Now we have a balanced market and people will take the time to negotiate well thought out offers and values will be determined. Sellers will be taking less or they simply will not sell, it’s really that simple.”
Good luck to the highly levered 40 year amort recent buyers…..somehow I think there’s already a lot of hurt for those folks already as they now find all those FOR SALE signs everywhere!!!
June 28th, 2008 at 11:27 am
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Dave/krissh/krassh, aka Rob, Tqn, Newsflash, dogs, please don’t listen to the bears.
This is a good time to buy. Sure sales have been a little soft, but that’s just because of the weather.
Vancouver continues to have the best fundamentals underpinning the wise investment in residential real estate, and soon the world will come and take our calling card.
The Olympics will propel us to the next league, by the time the 2010 Olympics opening ceremony is finished the TV broadcast, and thousands of rich tycoons will land on Lulu Island.
Yeah I can see it now, 1 bedroom on Lakewood and Hastings for 900k, 1 bedroom Whaley Ring Road 899k, better hurry, we are running our of land- noticed you can’t find a for sale sign anywhere?
June 28th, 2008 at 8:35 am
The sale takes place when the seller and the buyer agree on a price and that in turn establishes value. Recently people have been making decisions based on heart and not head. Now we have a balanced market and people will take the time to negotiate well thought out offers and values will be determined. Sellers will be taking less or they simply will not sell, it’s really that simple. The frenzy has stopped and now we can go back to a market based on fundamentals and not just mental…
June 28th, 2008 at 8:30 am
“use government polution divedend cheque for downpayment at 1212 howe cowslapper!”
alreade spendt it at a 50% of sail in San Dieggo.
June 28th, 2008 at 7:36 am
#99
I am already loughing at you strataman,kfinancial,and damman and lots of other,did you ride the monster last week over mount everest.
Don’t talk to me like idiot bdk and brain dead drachen you got it?Brittanny?
June 28th, 2008 at 7:35 am
So our “subprime” problem is smaller, but 35% of the US subprime problem still seems like a pretty big problem.
Subprime wasn’t the cause of the credit bubble, but rather a destroyer of the confidence of the lenders as it did with the discovery of this strange sickness that plague the gay community in the late 70s and early 80s as we know now as being AIDS. But did it stop people from risky sexual behaviours? No, because as we understand how AIDS is contracted, we manage the risk by practicing safer sex. Risky lending will always come back as they will in years past as soon as confidence is restored. Confidence will only be restored when the truth about this current bubble is exposed and managed, which will take a rather long time.
June 28th, 2008 at 7:20 am
No.
Increased supply and decreased demand does not have to equal lower prices. You can have all the supply in the world and no demand and prices will only come down if the seller wants or needs it to, no other reason.
In a fantasy world, this may probably be.
In our real world, this is nonsense.
Why is it? Because, with decreased demand means increasing the period where excess inventory stays static. Inventory is cash, but is in a form of goods!
When cash is static, it looses value through carrying costs, inflation, interest charges and management expenses. Would you keep your money in a money market fund charging a 1% MER while paying you no return at all? Certainly not. And yet, you expect to get top dollar for an investment that pays you nothing.
But we see it all the time on the used section of Craigslist where people expects top dollar for a PowerMac G5 single processor tower, when in fact, a low end Core 2 Duo Mac Mini can run rings around the beast while being able to run Windows XP natively cause it’s an Intel processor based! But it’s completely fair to be asking the moon for a used G5 computer because, it doesn’t cost you anything to store it indefinitely while providing you with no return at all, since it is not fast enough to run software productively compared to the newer Intel macs.
Now only if you can keep homes indefinitely while receiving no return from its value.
The reality is that, most people who invest in homes don’t even bother to do an adjusted cost based on its value as it sits vacant or being rented out. That’s also the reason why BANKS, yes BANKS do not want to become landlords, otherwise they’ll be happy to keep renting to people in 1983 or in the early 1990s and wait till 2005 to liquidate all their portfolio . They never did in 1983 and nor during the early 1990s either. They would rather sell it at a lost, because time has a nasty habit of eroding your investment value.
I see a lot of lofty claims that RE provides a steady 5 to 8% return YOY. That’s the performance of a stock market over many many years. And with stocks, you barely need to manage it at all, which has no significant costs to speak of and it does, historically provide a 8 to 12% return with dividend included. I know homes have significantly higher expenses, so if some one here claims that it can make 4% or 8%, that would be net return, so the gross return would be double that, 8 to 16%. Yeah, from an asset class that provides no increased intrinsic value. The true net value is probably somewhere close to the normal inflation rate, but that would be from someone who had bought it during the downturn at significant price reductions and keep a hawkish eye on expenses.
June 28th, 2008 at 6:51 am
In any balanced market, there always be a tug of war between supply and demand. In the Kanban system pioneered first by Toyota and then adopted by many other corporations in the world, demand dictates supply. Supply thus meets demand, demand meets supply.
Film cameras were once the dominant player in the photographic field. With the advent of digital, it took over film during the last recession because, it offered a cheaper alternative to film. Once the mentality for digital solidified, the death of film is natural selection process. But, that doesn’t mean you can’t buy film. There’s a demand for film, but it is no where close to where it was before. Companies like Polaroid, Kodak and Fuji had gone from being the top 3 in the photographic field into the bottom feeders. This is the same with Sony, which was once a top player in the portable music player well known for its “Walkman” line had now been trumped by Apple’s iPods!
A shift in demand mentally usually precedes an impending recession. As the recession takes a foothold, it changes people’s expectation of a certain product and thus changes the dynamic of the demand itself. As we emerge from the recession into the next boom, this change is permanent. That’s why, recessions aren’t always a bad thing. Companies with a cash rich war chest can take advantage of its position and leap frog forward in the market place. RIM and Apple Inc are both good examples. Remember Palm Inc and Nokia?!?
Real estate itself, from historical records, has always demonstrated that it rises only with buyer’s salaries which is a reflection of increased intrinsic value of corporations they work for. Which means, homes rise in value only if buyers are willing to pay for what the sellers are asking for. Would you pay the same price for a Sony tape Walkman as you do with an Ipod Touch? Of course not, because you realize that an iPod Touch has more value than a tape player. Right now, Vancouver home buyers believe a Sony tape Walkman is worth as much as an iPod.
This distorted view point can offer nothing more than a distortion of the MOI data, because you know it’s not the true reflection of a balanced market, because value itself has also been distorted.
When the value of the Sony tape Walkman is distorted, we will make all the insanely possible excuses to justify its rise.
June 28th, 2008 at 12:00 am
So our “subprime” problem is smaller, but 35% of the US subprime problem still seems like a pretty big problem.
Comparing US-wide statistics to Canada-wide is meaningless because the bubble is much less widespread, in terms of proportion of the whole country, in Canada as it was in the US. Likewise it is meaningless to predict declines Canada-wide.
Also it’s not the categorization of the loan that matters (subprime, etc), but how much the loan amount exceeds the fundamental value of the property.
Only in BC are prices as inflated as they were in California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida (the top bubble states), and some other areas like Northern Virginia.
Compare apples to apples.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
@Jordan Clark
Yes, 5.7 Billion is a fair amount, but it goes beyond sub-prime. Sub-prime is simply the “scapegoat” for a much bigger global credit fiasco.
Our Canadian banks will take a hit much much bigger than the 5.7B and already have I believe (too tired to look it up right now, but CIBC is bleeding) as they have delved into the US sub-prime markets. It goes further than that of course. Alt-A and even prime loans are going to hurt our banks as well, and not just the loans made in the US.
I have a friend who owns a mortgage brokerage. When I heard him say that if he can’t get a client the financing ‘then we have a problem’ (meaning that he could find financing for anyone) over two years ago, I knew then that we where due for something major.
All this easy lending will cause our banks to reign in the lending controls, causing the housing downturn to further mirror that of the US as fewer and fewer people will be able to qualify for mortgages.
Sub-prime means nothing.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
@Not Confused
“Maybe you can explain to me how supply equals the supplier having to lower prices. They don’t need to, only if they want to, they have the option of not lowering prices and thus no sale.”
I’m sorry, but you truly are confused! You’ve completely twisted supply/demand rules into supply/prices rules of your own making. These are not applicable here.
Prices naturally gravitate to the amount of money (or barter commodity) that someone is willing to pay (demand) for the good.
If the good does not sell at the current selling (supply) price, and if the seller (supplier) is not willing to lower the price until the item sells (meets the demand), then the good is not really for sale.
Just reiterating what patriotz said in post 97.
If you truly believe that the seller controls the price, then I have a PS3 to sell you for $10,000. It’s used, but has a custom paint job, and by your confused logic I should have no problem selling it at my (supply) price.
June 27th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
I just read the Bank of Canada speech, here are two very interesting quotes:
“At the end of 2007, about 14 per cent of total residential mortgage loans outstanding in the United States were subprime”
next:
“The Canadian “subprime” mortgage market accounts for less than 5 per cent of the residential mortgage market”
So our “subprime” problem is smaller, but 35% of the US subprime problem still seems like a pretty big problem. According to a quick Google search the total write downs and credit loses due to US subprime mortgages is 146 Billion.
(http://stockweb.blogspot.com/2.....s-due.html)
So they have 9x more people, but we have only 35% of the same problem, that’s still roughly a $5,700,000,000 problem for us, is that not significant?
It also seems certain the % of subprime mortgages in BC would be higher, leaving us with a much higher part of the problem then the rest of Canada.