FVREB alters inventory count for May
Thanks to Gadwin who sent this info in: The FVREB statistics package for May 2008 has been released, you can get the PDF here. With the huge listings increase we’ve seen in Vancouver you’d expect the Fraser Valley to see a fair increase in inventory as well right?
Nope. Total FVREB listings for April 2008 was 11,111. At the end of May that grew to a total of 11,133. Thats a total monthly inventory increase of only 22 listings and a big difference from the monthly increase of over 2000 units in Greater Vancouver. They must be selling like hotcakes out in the Fraser Valley!
…well not exactly.
Apparently they just changed the way the total inventory is counted. Its all explained in this small footnote found at the bottom of page 3 of the above linked PDF:
Footnote: * As of May 2008, an adjustment was made to our active listings calculation to ensure it captures only Fraser Valley listings. Previous calculations inadvertantly included Fraser Valley member listings in other Board jurisdictions. As active listings are a constantly moving target, we are unable to generate revised active listings for previous reporting periods.
Too bad their system doesn’t keep track of historical active listings data, that would make the revision of the old numbers a snap. I guess we’ll only have apples to apples comparison for Fraser Valley inventory going forward.
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June 3rd, 2008 at 2:43 pm
On another note, a development I registered with in the Fraser Valley just sent me an e-mail warning me that their prices are about to rise!!Sure hope I haven’t missed another opportunity.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Still MOI should remain a relatively accurate representation of the market in spite of the change in methods. 6.2 last month and 6.96 this month.
I especially like how they give percentage of change between april/may and may 2007/08 even though their methods have changed.
June 3rd, 2008 at 2:54 pm
June 3rd, 2008 at 4:09 pm
The more fools they lure into not panicking and stay on board longer, the better for the 10 or so of us bears to feast.
I kinda picture bears feasting as the fishy specuvestors swim against the current upstream as they head to their final resting place into bankruptcy.
June 3rd, 2008 at 4:11 pm
June 3rd, 2008 at 4:26 pm
If they are pulling a fast one, then this is also a good sign, desperation and writing is on the wall. If not, the change is brutal incompetency and the timing makes them looks very suspicious.
Regardless, I think it all refects bad on them.
June 3rd, 2008 at 4:29 pm
June 3rd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
“If they are pulling a fast one, then this is also a good sign, desperation and writing is on the wall.”
The sure sign of desperation was when they had the Landcor Pimps and the Vancouver Sun working together to dispel the “15 Myths” around real estate, and the findings of that impeccable study clearly showed that Vancouver Re is in good shape- no bubble.
I heard one of the (might have been the RE Board pres) RE pimps today on the radio saying the market was becoming balanced; he mentioned that affordability has become a constraint, and prices will only go up single digit going forward.
So I ask myself: Is this guy stupid or dishonest, or one of the dogs from the Chipman blog?
June 3rd, 2008 at 6:57 pm
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:35 pm
RE FV adjustment - Can’t wait for benchmark house adjustment … “Due to the increasing beautification of our fair city and the desire of everyone in the world to live here we are adding 5% to our benchmark house prices ad infinitum ….”
It’s so over … try and hold out for 3 years … it will pay off I promise!
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
But let’s get some perspective. Realtors are going to be knee deep in doo-doo for the next few years and changing the active listings isn’t going to save them. Spinning the numbers won’t stop a crash; just look at the US Realtor boards’ lack of success.
June 3rd, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Victoria stats released by VREB show a 25% increase in inventory YOY and a 20% drop in sales YOY. Median prices for SFH and Townhouses declined month to month (condos were flat). May was the single biggest month for listings in the past 18 years. Properties over $1M have skyrocketed to over 11 months worth of inventory and are suffering the worst sales decline (37%).
Vancouver Island was even worse - 30% increase in listings and a 35% drop in sales YOY. If the trend continues, the west coast will likely start seeing real YOY price declines like Calgary and Edmonton by the end of the summer.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/06/03/co … /#comments
But, please keep it quiet for just a little bit longer.
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:20 pm
No, but i looked after you mentioned it.
was that the one ozzie jurock was on? the one with “listings up 20.2%, sales down 30.7%”?
here’s what ozzie had to say
“look if i go to the bank, the bank says thou shalt not pay more than 32% of the income on your mortgage, and vancouver takes 34% of the average person’s income to buy the average home, so clearly, something had to give, and we have sort of clearly reached a giving stage”.
34%? I’m clearly not on the same page as ozzie.
“…it started in the pre sales market. and there’s another interesting thing. there are a lot of people that have pre-sales now trying to assign them. if you go to craigslist.com and type in assigments on the real estate for sale you see between 300 and 800 people trying to assign their pre sales to somebody else already for the past few months.”
“… on average, the last 3 reversals we have lasted a 3 year period and from top to bottom went down 17%…”
So i guess this time there’s a lot of potential. if it’s worse than average, that means at least a 17% decline, eh?
but i have to say i like ozzie. especially after i saw that video someone posted ways back where he says he wouldn’t touch a downtown condo with a 10 ft pole…
June 3rd, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Well, actually, the NYSE and NASDAQ “fudemantal” measuring sticks change all the time. The DJIA, for instance, is rejigged every few years, with some companies tossed out of the index and others thought to be more representative of the economy added to the index.
Your government manipulates just about every piece of data you’ve ever seen: inflation rate, unemployment rate, government debt, annual deficits, you name it.
Instead of whining about realtors, who have no power over you whatsoever whether you choose to buy a house or not, why not focus your righteous anger at the people who are stealing from you every day: your elected representatives.
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
June 4th, 2008 at 5:52 am
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news … 9b58d30596
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/ … 6e750a09d5
Two papers, one owner, two different observations on the same numbers. Once again shows that stats can be used to illustrate whatever you want them to, depending on what they are compared with.
Global News this morning ticker: “Metro Vancouver RE now a buyer’s market”
We’re definately getting there…
June 4th, 2008 at 6:15 am
June 4th, 2008 at 6:21 am
http://www.canada.com/globaltv/bc/video/index.html
Click on Global BC stories, then click on Real Estate Market Slowing?
June 4th, 2008 at 7:02 am
June 4th, 2008 at 7:16 am
June 4th, 2008 at 7:20 am
Yeah right. It’s not a buyer’s market until the buyer is making a smarter decision than the seller - and that’s not until prices stop falling.
June 4th, 2008 at 8:28 am
That must be a typo, it should be sales down 26%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices drop by 26%, but I’m sure it hasn’t happened yet.
June 4th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Presuming he means the average HOUSEHOLD, the average home at the longest possible term with the best possible rate costs almost 40k per year and the average household makes 60k.
66% is a little bit off from 34% Ozzie. What a bald faced liar.
June 4th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Well, to be fair, prices haven’t started to fall - according to the Global news report listings are up and sales are down; but price increases are simply slowing to single digits.
Jurock mentioned how the pre-sales market is scrambling to find assignments and that Craigslist has hundreds of listings. Never thought I’d hear such housing news from MSM.
June 4th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Today they report listings as 10,400, and under their previous method they are currently 15,700 here in Calgary…….
There is absolutely no regulation of the “REIC” by anyone except the REIC themselves. I’d bet 1/2 of all REALTORS (why do they type that in caps anyways ?….seems awfully insecure and childish to me) could be charged with the commission of a criminal offence based on my experiences with them had there been stricter regulation place.
June 4th, 2008 at 9:59 am
OTOH I do believe he is lying when he says price declines will only occur in new condos and overbuilt areas. Classic REIC BS. He knows different.
June 4th, 2008 at 10:00 am
As for the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), it’s a shame they pulled the same trick last year. Notice the timing of CREB and FVREB?
June 4th, 2008 at 10:33 am
In 2007, average household spending on monthly mortgage payments had reached 37 per cent of after-tax income, up from 32 per cent in 2006.”
http://tinyurl.com/6e6k7f
Lots to talk about in this story. What a change in just one year.
June 4th, 2008 at 10:48 am
I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt because changing how the count is done to intentionally make the numbers look better than they are is about as effective a fix as putting a band-aid on the end of a firehose.
June 4th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Yeah. maybe i misheard … but he was on again at 11 PM and he very clearly said “74″.
i wonder who makes more money, ozzie or rennie?
June 4th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
June 4th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
June 4th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
June 4th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Listed for 39 days then cancelled…
MLS# V714043 $572,300
Same unit relisted today…
Way to drop that price down $4500! What a loser…
June 4th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
don’t post dumb comments just to cater to the home team. ozzie has been bearish on the lower mainland real estate market for at least 3-4 years. he is a cash flow investor, if an investment does’t meet a cash flow criteria he won’t recommend it. because his methodology is simple it actually doesn’t give him the room or motive for much spin.
June 4th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
You know that house at Collingwood & 2nd I mentioned? It just went up for sale (with a homemade sign) for 1.65 million (OBO the sign says with a straight face).
Also take a walk along 1st between Trutch and Alma - I counted ELEVEN For Sale signs.
June 4th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
June 4th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
>don’t post dumb comments just to cater to the home team.
Stagnate, I haven’t seen Paulb post a bad comment yet. He is one of the few realtors who has the guts to defy his peers and call the market a bubble. Paulb was also one of the few realtors to admit everything is overpriced.
Stagnate, Paulb is 10x more the character you are.
June 4th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Happens on a regular basis as index compenents are reshuffled to suit…well, someone. Most notably the NDX swapping a whole bunch of tech for a whole bunch of financials near the Big Bottom of ‘02.
June 4th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
What the FVREB is doing is analogous to the Dow dropping a $50 stock and adding a $100 stock with the same weighting so it looks like the market has gone up when it hasn’t.
June 4th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
i don’t mind criticism or debate but you should know what you’re talking about. the comment was dumb in how he portrayed and speculated on ozzie’s comments. i don’t give a shit if paul thinks it’s a bubble or not; so i suppose he’s turned away all his buying clients the last few years. do you think being a bear is conducive to being a real estate agent? of course most real estate agents are bullish or neutral, don’t compound your idiocy by making any more dumb generalizations about real estate agents or character. assclowns.
June 5th, 2008 at 5:07 am
http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/19504379.html
“Analysts say a U.S.-style housing market collapse here is unlikely, thanks to Vancouver’s job and population growth trends and its constrained geography up against mountains, ocean and the U.S. border.”
>>>>>>>YES THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO AREN’T EMBERRASSED TO SAY THIS, AND THERE ARE MANY PEOPLE WHO BELIEVE IT.<<<<<<<<<<
June 5th, 2008 at 6:07 am
““Analysts say a housing market collapse here is unlikely, thanks to Hong Kong’s job and population growth trends and its constrained geography up against mountains, ocean and the Chinese border.” (50% bust in late 90’s).
Nuff said.
Oh BTW they were saying the same thing about Vancouver in 1981 too.
June 5th, 2008 at 7:02 am
June 5th, 2008 at 7:41 am
June 5th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Dear God, man, you can’t even string together a coherent sentence, let alone an argument.
First, your “debating” consists of defining Paulb’s comment as “dumb.” Then, you go on with some gibberish about how since you don’t care about his views regarding real estate (bubble, no bubble), you conclude that he has “turned away all his buying clients??” Right, okay… You follow that with a rhetorical question (I think) regarding whether bearishness is compatible with being an RE agent, the point of which is a mystery.
Next, you assert that most RE agents are bullish or “neutral.” One is left curious (not really) as to how you, in your wisdom (that’s was hard to say), define “neutral.” Finally, you round out your declaration by advising “ass clowns” not “compound [their] idiocy” by making more “dumb” (how about a thesaurus?) generalizations about blah, blah, blah… Whew!
Who’s compounding what here, do you think?
June 5th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Stagnate,
I am agree with you,keep up the good work.
Warren,
Good work,You are a voice of Vancouver.Warren and Stagnate are
“A Statement of Originality and Confidentiality”
June 5th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Since when is it a realtors responsibility to tell a client to buy or not to buy? That’s the buyers decision.
June 5th, 2008 at 8:56 am
June 5th, 2008 at 9:13 am