Archive for June, 2008

High returns or security

Wednesday, June 11th, 2008

A cautionary tale in todays Vancouver Sun for those seeking high returns AND security in a real estate investment: Two time real estate loser leaves investors high and dry.

A former bankrupt, Hauff made his first stab at developing the 35-acre residential project on Bullock Lake near Ganges in 1996. To fund the development, he borrowed millions of dollars from Multimetro Mortgage Corp. at up to 20 per cent per annum.

Multimetro, run by Vancouver businessman Ken Megale, raised most of the money from mom-and-pop investors. He promised them extremely high rates of return and assured them it was a safe, fully secured investment.

In fact, the project was mismanaged from start to finish, and ended in foreclosure. Multimetro lenders, who were owed $11 million including accrued interest, lost everything.

… but dreams die hard, so Hauff bought the property back out of foreclosure for $9 million and started all over, this time with money from Calgary based Gibraltar Mortage Corp at a 24% per annum rate.

Like Multimetro, Gibraltar raised the money from many small investors, promising them high returns on a supposedly fully secured basis.

Alas, under Hauff’s stewardship, the project once again stalled. In February 2007, Gibraltar called its loans and David Bowra was appointed receiver.

Subsequently, the resort lodge and spa burned down. The insurer has agreed to pay $7.4 million compensation. The property, as is, is estimated to be worth another $18 million to $20 million. So in total, creditors might realize anywhere from $25 million to $28 million.

Meanwhile, there is about $36 million worth of debt on the property, most of it owed to Gibraltar investors. Interest is accruing at the rate of about $600,000 per month. There are also property taxes and professional fees to be paid. So even on a best-case scenario, creditors are going to take a serious hit.

Read the full article here.

Foreclosures double as market cools

Monday, June 9th, 2008

A couple of economic bad news stories posted by Via on this weekends Friday Free-for-all post: The spring selling season so far has us looking at a very different market from previous years. Sales have dropped and inventory has risen dramatically, at the beginning of June we’re looking at close to 18,000 listings for sale in Vancouver. As it becomes harder to sell the number of foreclosures have doubled in the lower mainland:

Kap Hiroti, who tracks Lower Mainland foreclosures at ForeclosureList.ca, says foreclosures stand at 20 per week, up from 10 per week in 2006.

“For one reason or another, they didn’t pay the mortgage, or insurance, or property tax,” says Hiroti, who advises real estate owners looking to foreclose or prospective buyers looking to buy a foreclosed property. “Or they get behind in their strata or condo fees, or face a one-time cost such as a roof or a leaky condo, which might set them back 40, 50 or 60 thousand dollars.”

Hiroti believes the Lower Mainland real-estate market has “flatlined,” meaning investors who were counting on making a profit no longer see an upside.

As a result, some have chosen to lose their investments through foreclosure rather than hanging on with no sign of a significant upside return.

“They were kind of speculating that the market would go up, but when the market flatlines, some people just choose to get out. Local people are getting priced out of the market.”

At the same time BCs unemployment rate has been creeping up - the jobless rate is now at 4.5% as positions are lost in trade, transportation and agriculture. The unemployment rate is particularly high for young people at 8.8% and for recent immigrants with an unemployment rate of 9.8%.

The bright point in the jobs data remains construction which has been the key driver in the BC jobs market for the last 5 years. The question is: how long can you have a jobs market driven by construction?

Friday Free-for-all!

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

It’s friday and that means it’s time for our weekly news roundup and open topic discussion for the weekend.  As I post this rain is falling against my window and it feels like its been gray and under 10 degrees for a week.  I am assured summer is still scheduled to begin in a couple of weeks.  In any case its the perfect weather to be stuck indoors in front of a computer - here’s a few stories I’ve noticed this week:

-BC: highest proportion of income on housing
-For Sale: $1,600,000 or best offer
-Lower mainland cities like to spend
-Real estate market returning to ‘normal levels
-Boomers own and owe more than ever before
-Sales sign super-stack challenge
-Mohican: shots from the bubblehood
-Cheap Calgarians
-Housing bust a boon for some renters
-US Records: foreclosures and low equity

So what are you seeing out there on this fine spring weekend?  Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

note: any conversation on real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. when posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Thanks!

Ownership & debt levels soar

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Courtesy of todays Vancouver Sun and Statscan - Canadian home ownership levels are at their highest since 1971 but the rush to own has meant soaring debt levels and longer mortgage terms.  A growing number of ‘owners’ may never pay off their mortgages, essentially renting the debt in perpetuity.

The report also shows that British Columbians are paying the highest proportion of their income among all Canadians to housing costs, as nearly a third are spending more than 30 per cent of their income to keep a roof over their heads.

More than one-third of the new mortgages being taken out in Canada are now amortized for more than 25 years, a portion labelled by one expert as “phenomenal” for a relatively new mortgage product, and the expectation is that the percentage for B.C.’s homebuyers would be at least that high.

“From the fall of 2006 through the fall of 2007, 37 per cent of all new mortgages in Canada were for amortizations longer than 25 years,” said Jim Murphy, president and chief executive of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals. “Of all the mortgage products that have been introduced, the ones longer than 25 years are the most popular.

“Thirty-seven per cent is quite high. It is phenomenal for a product that is relatively new.”

Among all outstanding mortgages last year, some nine per cent were pegged with payoff dates stretching more than 25 years all the way to 40 years.

“That number will obviously increase every year,” said Murphy.

…and a little further down:

The dream of burning the mortgage appears to be a more elusive one for Canadian owners, with the percentage of mortgage-free owners declining between 2001 and 2006, bucking an expectation that aging baby boomers would be paying off their mortgages by now.

“The share of owner households with mortgages has not been at such a high level in Canada since 1981,” the report said.

Huh. I guess a bunch of people must have paid off their mortgages right after 1981?  Or perhaps it was the foreclosures.

.. and in an unrelated example of how silly some of these loans have gotten, how about giving an 85 year old man a 4.8 million dollar mortgage on a 5 million dollar home?

FVREB alters inventory count for May

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2008

Thanks to Gadwin who sent this info in: The FVREB statistics package for May 2008 has been released, you can get the PDF here. With the huge listings increase we’ve seen in Vancouver you’d expect the Fraser Valley to see a fair increase in inventory as well right?

Nope. Total FVREB listings for April 2008 was 11,111. At the end of May that grew to a total of 11,133. Thats a total monthly inventory increase of only 22 listings and a big difference from the monthly increase of over 2000 units in Greater Vancouver. They must be selling like hotcakes out in the Fraser Valley!

…well not exactly.

Apparently they just changed the way the total inventory is counted. Its all explained in this small footnote found at the bottom of page 3 of the above linked PDF:

Footnote: * As of May 2008, an adjustment was made to our active listings calculation to ensure it captures only Fraser Valley listings. Previous calculations inadvertantly included Fraser Valley member listings in other Board jurisdictions. As active listings are a constantly moving target, we are unable to generate revised active listings for previous reporting periods.

Too bad their system doesn’t keep track of historical active listings data, that would make the revision of the old numbers a snap. I guess we’ll only have apples to apples comparison for Fraser Valley inventory going forward.

Property tax on single family homes up

Monday, June 2nd, 2008

From todays Vancouver Province, higher assessments on some single family homes leads to a jump in property tax bills:

Mario Tomsich is one of thousands of single-family Vancouver homeowners whose property taxes have surged an average of 14.2 per cent, seven times the rate of inflation.

“The taxes are just skyrocketing because of the value of the property,” the 75-year-old Vancouver landlord said yesterday. “If it keeps going like this, I would have to do something about it. People have been forced to sell their homes.”

Vancouver budget director Annette Klein said the 1.23-per-cent tax increase approved by city council was not reflected for single-family dwellings because their assessed values shot up 30 per cent.

They jumped 15 per cent above the average for the residential class, including condos. Property taxes are based on assessed values.

“Single-family homes are picking up more of the overall [tax] revenue,” Klein said. “They are compensating for slower growth in condos.”

This is the first I’ve heard of slower growth in condo property tax - is there an imbalance in the system and should we expect higher tax rates on condos in the future?