Victoria flippers in trouble
During this weekends open-topic post ‘tacoman’ noted that someone has started up a Victoria area flippers in trouble blog modeled after the original Sacramento area flippers in trouble and Phoenix flippers in trouble. These blogs all track drops in asking prices and where available show recent sales activity.
The Victoria area blog isn’t yet showing drops anywhere near as dramatic as the US based blogs are tracking but it will be interesting to see where this goes as the market changes. On the Sacramento blog the first listing is a house bought in March 2007 for $1,308,000, currently sitting on the market with an asking price of $600k.
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Dave Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Flippers? How does lowering the asking price make somebody a ‘flipper’?
If you want to track ‘flippers’, then you will need to come up with a better methodology. I would suggest that using the standard definition that real estate economists use such as somebody who buys and sells the same product within a short period of time (e.g. 3 months or 6 months).
If a ‘flipper’ were to list at a loss in a short period, then yes, they are in trouble.
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Dave Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 10:55 am
Well, let’s investigate these losses a little more closely. Most of the listings don’t have prior sales in the previous year, so again, we can’t use the information to gauge flipping. But, let’s see what we can dig up…
The house for Rolston Cres. in Saanich indicated a potential loss of 8.7%. Yet, the most recent asking price shown was $65,000 higher than what the owner paid only 6 months prior (i.e. $385k). Note that this house has since sold. Assuming the owner got near the final asking price, they would have made a ‘17% gain’ in only 6 months. Let’s say that owner was ½ cash on the purchase. That would be a 34% return on equity, or a 68% return on a yearly basis.
Trouble indeed.
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rj Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 10:59 am
3 to six months is a short period of time. It’s not unusual for a rehab and flip to take longer than that. I would be lot more generous than you with the time frame and say a sale within 3 to five years could still be considered a ‘flip’.
Then again the places listed on that site are obviously not all being sold by ‘flippers’. I’d say its an exaggeration, not unlike listing a 700sq foot condo as ‘huge’ on the MLS.
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Anonymous Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:38 am
I don’t care whether we call them flippers, speculators, etc. Call them sellers in trouble. But don’t bother reporting every asking price reduction.
If the property’s last sold price is unknown or a good comparable sale is unavailable, and no analysis is provided, the information being presented is meaningless to me. I want to know see that properties are clearly falling in value.
Is the analysis left as an excersize to the readers? Dave has shown just how wrong it is to assume that a price reduction means a seller is in trouble.
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Digi Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:48 am
At this point there are no big losses and there are still a lot of healthy gains – no one is saying the Victoria or Vancouver market HAS crashed, but some people are saying that is STARTING to crash.
If you believe the market will only go up sites like that could be a good way to find listings with price reductions. Of course if our market goes the US bubble route than the entries on that site will get a lot more interesting.
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Dave Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Anon – I want to know see that properties are clearly falling in value.
That’s pretty easy to measure as the medium and mean sales prices are widely published. The only problem with the Victoria market is it’s small size and wide spread in prices. That makes for bumpy data month over month. It takes many, many months to see the trend.
Believe me, the bears will come out strong in the next couple months should the mean or median prices fall. But, it really won’t mean much until we can look at it with 6 months of hindsight.
There is a reason bloggers like this don’t want to define their methodology. They would rather cherry pick anecdotes that support their perceptions. It takes a lot of work to gather good data and analyze it with a neutral viewpoint. It’s much easier just to post price reductions because it shows up on MLS.
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ShakaZulu Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Wow Dave. Three posts already. You must be very emotinally attached to real estate.
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ShakaZulu Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Wow Dave. Three posts already. You must be very emotionally attached to real estate.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
The negative numbers on the Victoria blog are based on the current wishing price versus the original wishing price. This is mostly useless.
If you check the Sacramento blog, the numbers are compared to the previous sale of that same property.
In a few months, if the Victoria blog is fixed, it will show us some interesting stuff. At least compare to recent comps, if not previous sales of the same property.
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Anonymous Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:41 pm
“That’s pretty easy to measure as the medium and mean sales prices are widely published.”
Those stats can be as misleading as anecdotal evidence. The point of this site is to provide enough anecdotal evidence to be convincing. The problem is that most of the data presented is meaningless without some background information to shed some light on the price drops.
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Anonymous Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
“The point of this site”
For clarification I was refering to Victoria area flipper in trouble.
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jesse Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Glad to see someone has taken an interest in showing price reductions font and centre. It does nicely highlight the following:
1) Price reductions can be hidden by re-listings. The way the blog is set up I believe the address is tracked and re-listings are tracked as well so the full history is now exposed.
2) This is a lot of work for the owner. If you like what s/he is doing you may want to consider a donation.
3) Previous sales data is not publicly available. I’m not going to trumpet this more, only to say your MLA has the power to change this. Also any Realtors feeling altruistic or bearish are welcome to supply the missing data
4) The site is fully disclaimed. Anyone who thinks it is misleading should start their own blog.
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Burden of Proof Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Dave,
Post a link form a “real estate economist” in support of your “3-6 month” defintion of a “flipper”. I seriously doubt that “real estate economist” has defined the word “flipper”.
Unless you do that, everyone should take your posts as misinformation.
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Burden of Proof Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Here is a parody of Dave:
“If you want to know if real estate is crashing use the defintion of crash that most boom-bust economists use, which is a 50% yoy increase in listings and a 30% decline in sales. By the accepted definition, Vancouver RE is in a crash right now!”
No supporting links or sources required. Just take my word for it. I have 1000’s of pages of statistics and economic methodology memorized for 100% accurate recall.
Dave is just a RE booster who likes to play with words and definitions and hates to support his misinformation with any facts (because there are none).
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jesse Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:03 pm
I think it is worth calling out the terms of use of the MLS system. I do not know where VFIT is obtaining the data for the site and whether the data can be posted.
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/dev/null Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Dave, your webpage indicates that you are a “Mortgage Expert”. Where do you see rates going over the next year? Just curious…
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Anonymouse Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
I think it’s clear that Victoria is still a very strong market. Much different than Vancouver because most people in Victoria live close to the ocean and there’s more salmon fishing too. For example it’s a mere 1/2 drive to the best salmon fishing grounds in the world from downtown Victoria. The cruise ship dock in Victoria is spectacular and is only a five minute drive to downtown. Tea at the empress remains at a reasonable $20 per person. It’s truly a retiree paradise.
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Dave Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
3) Previous sales data is not publicly available. I’m not going to trumpet this more, only to say your MLA has the power to change this. Also any Realtors feeling altruistic or bearish are welcome to supply the missing data
They are posted on BC Assessment (2007 sales).
4) The site is fully disclaimed.
I’m not sure a lawyer would agree with that. In order for an opinion not to be libellous, it must have some basis in fact. I see no facts backing up the assertion that those owners are ‘flippers’ and ‘in trouble’.
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Dave Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Dave, your webpage indicates that you are a “Mortgage Expert”. Where do you see rates going over the next year? Just curious…
Really? That’s news to me. My webpage just has information on my family.
Nice guess at my identity though.
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Not a Realtor, 4th yr Econ Student Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Typical bubble market behavior-inventory is skyrocketing, sales are dropping faster than an anchor, but no price adjustment as would be the case with most well functioning markets responding to supply/demand.
Yeap, prices sticky on the way down until they snap!
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Drachen Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Dave
“In order for an opinion not to be libellous, it must have some basis in fact.”
Wrong AGAIN as I’ve said before if you don’t know, look it up! It is only libellous (legally) if it should reasonably have been known at the time of publication that it is false and it is damaging.
If an author makes a statement based on reasonable information that turns out to be completely false and damaging he or she is not liable because they had reason to believe it was true a the time.
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Not a Realtor Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Dave are you Chipman? Your diction, style, awkward sentence structure, cagey, and convoluted posts sure would seem to suggest so.
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jesse Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:34 pm
“They are posted on BC Assessment”
As you mentioned, not for anything before 2007.
“I see no facts backing up the assertion that those owners are ‘flippers’ and ‘in trouble’.”
Flea markets don’t sell fleas. Yours is a pretty weak argument. Freedom of expression almost always wins, especially when the definition of the slang “flipper” is so ill-defined.
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Anonymous Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Dave, you sure seem hooked on the site title.
‘flippers in trouble’ is hyperbole – like saying somewhere is ‘the best place on earth’.
I give kudos to the creator of that site, it must be a fair amount of work to track that stuff and concrete examples like the ‘flippers in trouble’ sites from the US are a good counterpoint to the constant RE salespeople assertion that ‘everything is fine, prices only go up’.
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Anonymous Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
“The cruise ship dock in Victoria is spectacular and is only a five minute drive to downtown. Tea at the empress remains at a reasonable $20 per person. It’s truly a retiree paradise.”
I am guessing that this is parody. I am a Vancouverite who is sadly exiled in the backwater of a city that you term a retiree’s paradise. Oak bay is beautiful, as is fairfield, cook st, cadboro, and james bay.
However, have you ever taken a walk on the breakwater between september and february? It ain’t so stunning when you are being blasted in the face with freezing winds. And cheap tea at the empress had better be good, in order to compensate you for dodging all the homeless people and suburban white trash that are omnipresent on the downtown streets.
But hey.. the best thing you could do for this city is to convince busloads of retirees to come and hang out near market square and fan tan alley. After seeing the legions of drug users hanging outside, they would very likely take their dwindling investment money elsewhere.
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Anonymous Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
ah, the natural progression of the bull at the end of the cycle:
“Real Estate is the only investment that never goes down”
“Occasionally, Real Estate has gone down, but not in this market”
“Well, sometimes you hit plateaus. But good times are ahead”
“Even if prices have fallen, people who bought long ago have still profited from their investments”
“All markets experience temporary corrections”
“You can’t spot a bubble except in hindsight”
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Dave Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:32 pm
I find the website interesting as well and I check in every now and then.
I am just saying that I don’t buy the line that the site if ‘fully disclaimed’. Maybe he will read these posts and re-word it to cover himself a bit better.
I know that I wouldn’t be happy if my house was shown on there and somebody said that I was a flipper and in trouble.
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jesse Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
The evidence supporting a real estate “bubble” is shoddy at best. To claim a “bubble” exists with such flimsy evidence is financially detrimental to homeowners’ future incomes and deserving of compensation. Heretofore any mention of the word “bubble” in reference to the housing market will be pursued to the utmost extent of the law.
Legal action will also be swift for anyone who calls me a “bull” as it seriously affects my credibility on these idiot bear blogs.
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Help Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:10 pm
I’m really really desperate to buy a new home now before the price collapses. I’ve heard the banks will not be lending people money if the house price goes down. I don’t want to be priced out forever any advice?
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jesse Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:16 pm
“I know that I wouldn’t be happy if my house was shown on there and somebody said that I was a flipper and in trouble.”
Agreed. Though I would be even more pissed off if I have to sell at a loss, regardless how flippant (flippy? flippalicious?) I really am. It is going to be difficult to reconcile a seller accepting a reduced price with said seller being indirectly labeled a “flipper” on a blog. I would think most buyers could care less if I’m a flipper and/or a serial killer, as long as the price is right.
Copyright could be an issue with the site but IANAL.
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blueskies Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:35 pm
I don’t want to be priced out forever any advice?
well if you listen to Dave just wait and the price will drop….
at some point the price will be low enough that you will not have to borrow a large amount of money….
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Patiently Waiting Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:44 pm
I think I’d rather buy a house from a serial killer. All the nastiness will be taken away as evidence, and you’re more likely to know what’s behind the walls.
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patriotz Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I’m not sure a lawyer would agree with that. In order for an opinion not to be libellous, it must have some basis in fact. I see no facts backing up the assertion that those owners are ‘flippers’ and ‘in trouble’.
Dave, why don’t you stick to being a bogus RE expert instead of a bogus legal expert?
An opinion is just that, someone’s subjective view of something. It’s not provable one way or another.
I can call someone a “flipper” if he’s been holding his property for 20 years if I want. It’s just a subjective term meaning someone who is looking for excessive gains on RE. Likewise I can say that anyone from the guy next door to Li Ka-shing is “in trouble” if it suits me. It’s just an opinion about the market. These terms are not allegations of any sort.
You are really getting tiresome. And that’s not libellous either.
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Drachen Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Patriotz
“You are really getting tiresome. And that’s not libellous either.”
I agree but, as was pointed out on NVcondos, he does serve a purpose. To refute his arguments he is forcing us to repeat all the good bear arguments and learn some new ones. This educates us and people who are just visiting and actually creates a situation where people who are exposed to these forums actually become immune to Dave’s sales techniques.
Kind of an ironic justice really.
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betamax Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Dave’s got a lot of time on his hands lately.
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browntown Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 6:47 pm
yeah thanks for rent money nutslaps! i never see dave have to resort to personal attack! i think dave has job nutslap! even at cmhc! job=real estate! remember that basement suiter nutbags!
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Dave Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 7:01 pm
I can call someone a “flipper” if he’s been holding his property for 20 years if I want. It’s just a subjective term meaning someone who is looking for excessive gains on RE. Likewise I can say that anyone from the guy next door to Li Ka-shing is “in trouble” if it suits me. It’s just an opinion about the market. These terms are not allegations of any sort.
It doesn’t matter if it is your opinion. If the statement and accusations are knowingly false (or say negligent in this case) and cause financial damages, then it may be considered libel. The definition of libel includes a statement that, “makes a false statement publicly that, tends directly to injure him in respect to his office, profession, trade or business, either by imputing to him general disqualification in those respects that the office or other occupation peculiarly requires, or by imputing something with reference to his office, profession, trade, or business that has a natural tendency to lessen its profit“.
Calling somebody a flipper and saying they are in financial trouble could undermine their ability to command the highest price for their house (i.e. damages may be incurred).
I don’t profess to be a lawyer, but I am also not a dummy.
Anyways, who cares? If the US site didn’t get sued, it’s quite unlikely up here.
We are getting off my original point that the disclaimer is far from providing legal immunity.
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The Van Man Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Dave;
I suppose you simply did not do your homework I prescribed to you. You do not understand what a HPI really means and how to use it. Or maybe you understood it, but chose to simply ignore it because it DOES TELL the truth about the housing market in general.
The truth of the matter is, HPI (Housing Price Index) tracks the transaction of homes. Since the inception of the HPI index in the 1980, the American housing price index has risen and fallen, but has managed a stable upward climb for 20 years to about an index of 220. After all, you said it before that buying a home is a long term commitment (5 years or longer right?!?) and so, this index seemed to reflect as such. However, starting in 2000 to 2006, most of the states indexes climbed from 220 to 600, a 3 fold increase!
So, explain to me Dave how could the index climb 2 to 3x as much in 6 years when prior years, it took 20 years to double?!? And how do you explain why the HPI index is dropping like a rock in 2 years after 2006 in some states? Remember that HPI “tracks” the transaction of homes and it only changes when it is bought or sold.
HPI can be a friend to the flipper, but can also be a foe. It looks like when it’s going up. Flippers and RE pumpers love to use HPI because it shows that dramatic increase in an easy to view format. The Landcor website was cited for this. People like us hate it because people like Dave will say, homes are clearly rising. It’s true, because it tracks upward price swings. But like any index, it also tracks downward price swings too, unless ofcourse Landcor decides to fudge their data. The HPI data can become our friend and the pumper’s nightmare. Clearly, the HPI data in the states is pointing to a worse than ever housing slump.
The reality is that, the HPI tracks by the OFHEO (Office Of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) clearly shows that California and Arizona (the two blogs location) are clearly, yes, clearly in the red.
I don’t think our situation is any different. It’s unfortunate that Landcor didn’t track the HPI until 2001. It would be helpful if we have the 1981 data to better compare it with the states and Japan.
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rocker guy Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Anybody interested in forming a co-op and buying the entire assessment role from the province? You can subscribe to have it delivered weekly – weekly sale data! Email me at lilump@ttul.org to join my list.
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Drachen Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Dave
“We are getting off my original point that the disclaimer is far from providing legal immunity.”
Disclaimers never provide legal immunity, at best they can help slightly in a court case, they’re just there to dissuade people from filing in the first place. Same goes for most waivers and product safety information.
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The Van Man Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 8:22 pm
There is a distinct difference between a real flipper than a wannabe.
A real flipper is an organization of people who work full time to look for properties, sell properties, check titles and organize contractors to fix up properties, etc, etc.. They can do multiple deals. Speed is the essence. The quicker you sell it, the higher the profit margin.
In fact, real flippers and builders are alike. Builders develop the land, build homes as quickly as they can to sell it to the market. The longer it stays unbuilt, the more costs associated. Not to mention special insurance and security if need be you need to get to secure a vacant lot. They know the costs involved including man hours. They are business people, some though are smarter than others.
Wannabe flippers, however, deal with limited flips. They do not have a lot of properties to flip. Usually, they flip one, roll over the profits into another flipper or flippers in the hopes of flipping for higher profits. They are usually a staff of only 1 or maybe 2 if a girlfriend or wife is involved. They rarely pay themselves and they mostly use the equity they borrowed from their principle residence — which is a bad idea. In fact, in the Adjust Cost Base (ACB) calculation, I bet you the majority of them don’t even include the time spent for them to buy, finance, renovate and sell the place. They think that’s free time. It’s funny that their time is worth less than a young teenager working at McDonald’s flipping burgers. This is probably the only time that most of these people are willing to work for “FREE”.
But that’s ok, they see what Dave showed. A good profit.
Flipping homes, while looks great on paper no doubt, is a difficult business during a normal housing cycle. The problem is, if homes in the community are worth $300,000, then your flip property can not really be sold more than $300,000 either no matter how much renovations you’ve put in. That’s why, you don’t see normal folks flipping homes during the down years after 1983 nor do you during the 1990s and make substantial YOY profits. When the HPI index rose 2.5x in 6 years, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that you can actually make money flipping. The condition is there.
But I agree that when prices are going down, flipping is really not a wise word of choice to use. Probably dumping is.
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jesse Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 8:31 pm
“Calling somebody a flipper and saying they are in financial trouble could undermine their ability to command the highest price for their house”
OK. Prove being labeled a “flipper” means you get a lower price. If you’re a “motivated seller”, you’re supposedly going to drop the price anyways, unless dropping it means bankruptcy.
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The Van Man Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 8:40 pm
I like to point out that Dave does have a point about the Victoria Area Flippers blog and that it may get shut down for this reason..
Victoria BC is part of British Columbia and as such..
British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec are the only provinces with laws recognized as substantially similar to PIPEDA. These laws regulate the collection, use and disclosure of personal information by businesses and other organizations and provide individuals with a general right of access to, and correction of, their personal information.
And as such, the Office Of The Privacy Commissioner of Canada has the right to investigate on bequest of the individual in query against the organization (The Victoria Flipper Blog) for correction of their personal information if they recognize their properties listed and was deemed incorrectly targeted as a flipper.
And, it does not cost an individual anything to file this complaint. In fact, Dave can file a complaint to the commissioner tomorrow if he wants to only if he believes a property he owns or maybe manage or represent is shown on the blog. I believe the fine is like $20,000 for non compliance.
That’s why, fashioning something like we have in the states is fine as long as our laws are the same. They are not.
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patriotz Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Calling somebody a flipper and saying they are in financial trouble could undermine their ability to command the highest price for their house (i.e. damages may be incurred).
So is calling a property an overpriced POS or pointing out that it has a ridiculous price/rent, which is what people on this board do all the time. In fact the whole point of this and other bear blogs is to educate people that current prices are ridiculous and have to come down. Are the sellers going to sue Garth Turner too? Go read his book or his blog if you want to see blunt language.
The very fact that the seller has had to reduce the listing price means that he is having “trouble”. Or is that too hard for you to understand?
Nobody has the right to sell anything for any price. What something will sell for is entirely up to the buyer. Buyers, and advocates for buyers, use all sorts of tactics to try to bring prices down, just as sellers and realtors use tactics to try to push prices up.That’s what negotiating a price is all about.
Unless someone is making factual misrepresentations about the property, like claiming it has UFFI or was a grow-up, the seller has no grounds for seeking damages. Nor does a buyer have any grounds for seeking damages from a seller for the usual babble such as “everyone wants to live here”, etc. That’s just part of the game.
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Thums up2 Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 9:09 pm
LIVE BLOGCAST
Lots of properties owners and lots of rental building owners are serving eviction notice to their tenents renovating their units,buildings,and increasing the rents by $300-700 more.
bloggers source tell this is happening more frequently in the westside and mount pleasant area.
‘flip it or don’t,’buy it or don’t,’sell it or don’t,rent it or not but
“Vancouver housing prices countinue to climb 8% this year and 5% next year.Buying is being recomended by experts because interest rates are low.”
with the initial arrival of $100 cheque per adult from carbon tax-all of sudden realtors phone start ringing on high volumes.showing will be on high volume from tomorrow
fear for two quarter of negative growth suppose to end next week but time has changed without any damage now yellow people wanted to go green before it’s too late.
“Vancouver,B.C. countinue heading towards best olympics of the centuary”-MIND IT.
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Anonymous Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Dave rules. Ban scary Dave.
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Islander Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Nor does a buyer have any grounds for seeking damages from a seller for the usual babble such as “everyone wants to live here”, etc. That’s just part of the game.
Not correct. Information in a listing that a buyer relies in when deciding to make a purchase is actionable. Not saying it happens at lot. Nor am i suggesting it’s easy to pursue or that the payoff is worth the effort. But misrepresentation and negligence are well-established in law. Sellers (and realtors) have to be able to stand behind their claims.
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Re-diculous Says:
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Per the BOC’s prediction today: “Soft landing seen for Canada’s Housing Market”, It seems from the comments that there is not alot of agreement. In fact some are quite classic.
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....e#comments
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Bizznitch Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 12:29 am
Good luck nailing whoever owns the flipper blog. I bet the host of that blog is in the US.
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patriotz Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 3:48 am
But misrepresentation and negligence are well-established in law. Sellers (and realtors) have to be able to stand behind their claims.
Correct, they have to stand behind their claims, which are material representations pertaining to the property for sale. But stuff like “everyone wants to move/retire here”, “the rich immigrants are coming”, “buy now before it’s too late”, etc. are not claims about the property for sale. They are just “salesman’s puffery” in legal jargon. Just like sellers of collectibles, and unlike securities dealers, realtors are not legally proscribed from making implied claims about the future value of the goods for sale.
As for the VFIT site, there is nothing on the site except the location of the property and its listing history – just the facts, as Sgt. Friday would say. The idea that anyone would have a claim for damages against someone publicizing data that has already been intentionally publicized by the seller’s agent (on the MLS) is absurd. Nor is the information copyrightable – works, not facts, are copyrightable. If the site were copying web pages from the MLS that would be another issue.
If it were possible to successfully sue anyone for such a mild attempt at consumer advocacy, people like Phil Edmundston and his “Lemon-Aid” books would have been put out of business by the auto industry decades ago. And need I say the RE industry would have gone after Garth Turner. Turner of course would have relished a lawsuit, as it would provide yet another opportunity to show himself as a hero.
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The Van Man Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 5:20 am
Patriotz,
I know Phil and Garth have retained lawyers on an advisory role, simply because the nature of their business. Mr. Turner could have been sued by countless of thousands of Nortel investors when he was pumping for Dynamic Funds Inc. He claimed he’s an investment advisor, but in fact he was not. He’s was a business writer, but he made sure in his seminars that he implied that he was. I did not like his business practice, but he is working with the laws.
My concern with the VFIT site is that, our privacy laws are quite strict and quite often enforced. The advantage of our privacy laws is that, its enforcement is completely paid for by us, the tax payers. An individual can simply file a complaint to the privacy commissioner stating the obvious facts, the invasion of his or her privacy. That is also why, we also have a “DO NOT CALL LIST” too, thanks to the privacy act. Our phone number, while on lease by the phone company, is in fact not copyrightable. But, when call centers make marketing calls on your number, you can stop this by putting your number of the DO NOT CALL LIST. This is your right. In fact, the next thing they call you, don’t hang up. Instead, ask them nicely to be put on the do not call list. If they refuse, you can exercise this limited right for 2 years (I forgot the exact number).
I routinely do this to them. At first they were mean. But when I filed a complaint to the privacy commission, funny that I do not get calls from any of these shills anymore. This is your right..
While the VFIT site lists the property and the listing history, its title on the blog leaves viewers on the site to believe that the property itself is being flipped. Can the site organizer proves this to be 100% true? If he or she can, it means that the site organizer has that individual’s private information without the individual’s signed consent. Do you see where I’m getting at?
I have actually heard of one individual who had successfully filed a complaint against a computer company he frequent to simply because, the salesperson told his competitor what computer and software he was using for his business through casual conversation. To us, this is nonsense, but to this individual, it was a breach of privacy and that compromises his competitive edge, because now his competition knows his secret!
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Just Saying Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 5:29 am
Am I the only one here who thinks “Browntown” has a thing for nuts?
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patriotz Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 5:51 am
My concern with the VFIT site is that, our privacy laws are quite strict and quite often enforced.
WHAT privacy? ALL information on the site is not only in the public domain but previously advertised by the seller on the MLS. An MLS listing is a public solicitation for bids.
And again, “flipper” is just a slang term for an RE investor. There is NFW anyone is going to be able to make a successful claim against any user of that term. People use far more offensive language on this blog and elsewhere and we all know it.
In other news, the April 2008 Case-Shiller numbers are out. Seattle is now down 6.6% since its peak in July 2007. San Diego, the west coast city that peaked first in June 2006, is now down 28%.
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Vansanity Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 6:00 am
Case Shiller Index shows a 15.3% decline in RE prices in April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/.....refer=home
Chris Hurst (sp?) on Global this morning was talking about how US RE prices dropped back to 2004 prices with millions of Americans owing more than their homes are worth.
The RE woes in the US are far from over. Good thing we’re not in the US, eh?
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Dave Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 6:21 am
I suppose you simply did not do your homework I prescribed to you. You do not understand what a HPI really means and how to use it. Or maybe you understood it, but chose to simply ignore it because it DOES TELL the truth about the housing market in general.
So, explain to me Dave how could the index climb 2 to 3x as much in 6 years when prior years, it took 20 years to double?!? And how do you explain why the HPI index is dropping like a rock in 2 years after 2006 in some states? Remember that HPI “tracks” the transaction of homes and it only changes when it is bought or sold
I thought I had already responded to your HPI question.
HPI is not a valuation or affordability metric, which is what you seem to suggest it can be used for. So, I don’t see the point in answering your question regarding the time period for HPI to double. Rather, I think it is better to simply look at affordability or other valuation metrics.
The problem with HPI is where you set your base year. Let’s say we picked 1981 in BC right at the peak and contrast it to an HPI base year of 1982 after the crash. The difference in these two values would be roughly 30 to 40%.
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Johnathan Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 7:19 am
I think all of you are nuts. The real estate market in Vancouver is top notch. Vancouverites are the saviest real estate owners in the world. There is no way I repeat no way that prices are going down. This IS the best place on earth you rental trash.
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scullboy Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Jonathan buddy,
“This IS the best place on earth you rental trash.”
I don’t think I’ve ever seen the bull case put more succinctly. Thanks for that.
It’s weird…. I’ve lived in Nova Scotia, Quebec, all over Ontario and Alberta. *ONLY* in B.C. have I ever heard denigrating comments about renters.
Best place on earth, indeed.
I”m thinking of packing up and heading elsewhere…..Australia beckons. I might come into a tidy pile of cash and a few months on the other side of the pacific might be just the thing.
I have to say, today’s the day I’m glad I rent. B.C. has been freaking me out. Nobody’s on the street and it’s the middle of the summer. Well…. I think it’s summer. We’ve seen sun so rarely lately.
It’s awesome… I can just ditch the stuff I don’t need, jump on a plane and go. I kind of feel like leaving Vancouver and its ridiculous housing problems behind for a while. I’ve never seen a city with so much construction going on around so few people, yet even the middle class is stretched really thin when it comes to decent housing.
You really kind of have to drink a lot of the kool-aid to ignore the problems in this city and eventually, pretty just doesn’t cut it.
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freako Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 8:19 am
In other news, the April 2008 Case-Shiller numbers are out. Seattle is now down 6.6% since its peak in July 2007.
Actually, Seattle went up about a half percent between March and April.
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Drachen Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Jonathan
If you feel that way then buy all you can, there’s plenty to go around, why don’t you have a competition with yourself and see if you can sign a dozen mortgages by the end of the week.
Just one favour to ask though. When you’re filing for bankruptcy can you come back here and tell us so we can have a good laugh?
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blueskies Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 8:36 am
April 2008 Case-Shiller numbers are out.
Dave: would luv to hear your spin on this
YVR will be visiting this station in about 2 years
may as well start preparing for the downturn now
don’t buy now, you will be sorry if you do
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moldcity Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 9:08 am
regarding the legal debate: It is demonstrably provable that the seller is having ‘trouble’ selling for the original asking price or they wouldn’t have dropped said asking price. The information listed is all public -the ‘privacy’ argument is just smokescreen.
If the goal of listing a property for sale, or dropping the asking price is to generate interest and actually sell the property the point could be made that sites like ‘flippers in trouble’ highlight properties where the seller is motivated, providing a valuable service to both the buyer and seller.
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freako Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 9:17 am
This is getting ridculous. Flippers in Trouble is just an homage to the originals in California. For those of us who have predicted the end of this mess for some time, it was a sight to see the first 10% price drops on these blogs. Reality so slowly and surely sinking in. Now 40% price drops are a dime a dozen, and the VHB’s Oprah moment have long come and gone. But here it is business as usual.
It seems as our resident mortgage broker/pumper/shill/stooge tries to discredit this site by:
a. Playing definition with the term “fliper”
b. Attacking the legality of the site.
Who cares. It is what it is. All it is showing to date are reductions in asking prices. Where will it go from here? Don’t know for sure, but blogs like VFIT will give us the a heads up.
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Bubble Lad Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 9:19 am
I think Drachen hit the nail on the head – why come here and try to convince everybody of the strength of Vancouver real estate? If you were a hard core Bull and believed all your arguments about never ending price gains, shouldn’t you be thankful that blogs like this are “discouraging” people from buying real estate so there’s more for all the optimists? While the concern for all the poor renters is deeply touching, I think Drachen’s advice is best: don’t waste your time here, get out there and BUY BUY BUY!!! Show us all what a badass your are!
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Bubble Lad Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 9:21 am
You can start with this beauty:
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....c.php?t=63
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cheapskate Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 9:47 am
In other news:
200 mortgage brokers arrested in USA:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7464298.stm
UK housing market down 20% “base case”
http://tinyurl.com/4qbk9m
These days I only hear positive RE comments from trolls on vancouver blogs.
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patriotz Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 9:54 am
*ONLY* in B.C. have I ever heard denigrating comments about renters.
Because deep down inside, owners know that only an endless supply of greater fools will support their dreams of lifelong wealth. Once people stop playing the game, i.e. are content to be renters, it’s all over.
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Vanman Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Patriotz,
I think everybody needs to realize that our civil law is not based on the same system as the Americans do. I think many of you had been seeing too many Judge Judy soap operas. You see, lawsuits are common in the US of A because unless it is a federal case, its rule of law is based on the Napoleonic Code. Whereas, our legal system is based on the English Common Law. People, please don’t mix American justice in Canadian courts. They are not the same.
The privacy act is there to protect all of us from possible cases of privacy invasion. You can try cases even without having the preceeding event occur, because it has been legislated into law. Whereas with the Americans, it prohibits ex post facto laws that apply to events that occurred before them. Judges are encouraged to interpret the law, but is prohibited from passing judgement of a legislative value. Whereas, with us, it’s almost the opposite. We have legistation about privacy and our judges use precedent cases to judge and convict. They are precedent cases in Canada that had clearly invaded privacy.
You said that all the information on the VFIT is public domain. Well, the number, names and addresses of individuals on the white pages are also in the public domain too. But what we do with those numbers is key to the privacy act doctrine. No company or individuals can use this number and do what they wishes with it without the written consent of an individual.
I have nothing against VFIT. In fact, it might help the sellers sell. But I just like to point out what our laws are.
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Vanman Says:
June 24th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Dave said:
HPI is not a valuation or affordability metric, which is what you seem to suggest it can be used for.
But the index records the transaction of homes in terms of value and frequency of the trade. Homes can only be sold or bought if
1, Price is acceptable to both parties
2, Affordability factor to mortage the place
3, Appropriate financing is available
The index reflects upon this because the final price is really what the buyer is able to afford to pay.
What you are after is the rise in the instrinsic value of homes. You are treating a home like it has a book to price value and a price to earnings ratio. Sadly, a home is not like a stock. Warren Buffet and Charles Schwab had both said that the intrinsic value of homes does not rise.
HPI is a good tool to use because it reflects the true pricing of a home that the market fundamentals are willing to pay. You can see clearly that prior to 2006 and after 2000, most Pacific states had their HPIs go as high as 600. But before the year 2000, they were at the lowly 200s. The index showed a significant jump because, people are willing to pay high prices just for the sake of being high. There were no fundamentals attached. Just like, there’s no reason to question why a Mercedes Benz is priced higher than a Honda Civic or a Hyundai Accent. If they are all being equal, the index would probably be hovering at the lowly 300 or so. Maybe in another 14 years, it would go up to 400, because it also reflects the fact that inflation does drive up salaries of individuals and that influences the HPI index. That’s why in 1980, it was at 100 (base point). At year 2000, it was around 220.