Victoria flippers in trouble
During this weekends open-topic post ‘tacoman’ noted that someone has started up a Victoria area flippers in trouble blog modeled after the original Sacramento area flippers in trouble and Phoenix flippers in trouble. These blogs all track drops in asking prices and where available show recent sales activity.
The Victoria area blog isn’t yet showing drops anywhere near as dramatic as the US based blogs are tracking but it will be interesting to see where this goes as the market changes. On the Sacramento blog the first listing is a house bought in March 2007 for $1,308,000, currently sitting on the market with an asking price of $600k.
June 24th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Dave said:
HPI is not a valuation or affordability metric, which is what you seem to suggest it can be used for.
But the index records the transaction of homes in terms of value and frequency of the trade. Homes can only be sold or bought if
1, Price is acceptable to both parties
2, Affordability factor to mortage the place
3, Appropriate financing is available
The index reflects upon this because the final price is really what the buyer is able to afford to pay.
What you are after is the rise in the instrinsic value of homes. You are treating a home like it has a book to price value and a price to earnings ratio. Sadly, a home is not like a stock. Warren Buffet and Charles Schwab had both said that the intrinsic value of homes does not rise.
HPI is a good tool to use because it reflects the true pricing of a home that the market fundamentals are willing to pay. You can see clearly that prior to 2006 and after 2000, most Pacific states had their HPIs go as high as 600. But before the year 2000, they were at the lowly 200s. The index showed a significant jump because, people are willing to pay high prices just for the sake of being high. There were no fundamentals attached. Just like, there's no reason to question why a Mercedes Benz is priced higher than a Honda Civic or a Hyundai Accent. If they are all being equal, the index would probably be hovering at the lowly 300 or so. Maybe in another 14 years, it would go up to 400, because it also reflects the fact that inflation does drive up salaries of individuals and that influences the HPI index. That's why in 1980, it was at 100 (base point). At year 2000, it was around 220.
June 24th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Patriotz,
I think everybody needs to realize that our civil law is not based on the same system as the Americans do. I think many of you had been seeing too many Judge Judy soap operas. You see, lawsuits are common in the US of A because unless it is a federal case, its rule of law is based on the Napoleonic Code. Whereas, our legal system is based on the English Common Law. People, please don't mix American justice in Canadian courts. They are not the same.
The privacy act is there to protect all of us from possible cases of privacy invasion. You can try cases even without having the preceeding event occur, because it has been legislated into law. Whereas with the Americans, it prohibits ex post facto laws that apply to events that occurred before them. Judges are encouraged to interpret the law, but is prohibited from passing judgement of a legislative value. Whereas, with us, it's almost the opposite. We have legistation about privacy and our judges use precedent cases to judge and convict. They are precedent cases in Canada that had clearly invaded privacy.
You said that all the information on the VFIT is public domain. Well, the number, names and addresses of individuals on the white pages are also in the public domain too. But what we do with those numbers is key to the privacy act doctrine. No company or individuals can use this number and do what they wishes with it without the written consent of an individual.
I have nothing against VFIT. In fact, it might help the sellers sell. But I just like to point out what our laws are.
June 24th, 2008 at 9:54 am
*ONLY* in B.C. have I ever heard denigrating comments about renters.
Because deep down inside, owners know that only an endless supply of greater fools will support their dreams of lifelong wealth. Once people stop playing the game, i.e. are content to be renters, it's all over.
June 24th, 2008 at 9:47 am
In other news:
200 mortgage brokers arrested in USA:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7464298.stm
UK housing market down 20% "base case"
http://tinyurl.com/4qbk9m
These days I only hear positive RE comments from trolls on vancouver blogs.
June 24th, 2008 at 9:21 am
You can start with this beauty:
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/viewtopic.php?t=…
June 24th, 2008 at 9:19 am
I think Drachen hit the nail on the head – why come here and try to convince everybody of the strength of Vancouver real estate? If you were a hard core Bull and believed all your arguments about never ending price gains, shouldn't you be thankful that blogs like this are "discouraging" people from buying real estate so there's more for all the optimists? While the concern for all the poor renters is deeply touching, I think Drachen's advice is best: don't waste your time here, get out there and BUY BUY BUY!!! Show us all what a badass your are!
June 24th, 2008 at 9:17 am
This is getting ridculous. Flippers in Trouble is just an homage to the originals in California. For those of us who have predicted the end of this mess for some time, it was a sight to see the first 10% price drops on these blogs. Reality so slowly and surely sinking in. Now 40% price drops are a dime a dozen, and the VHB's Oprah moment have long come and gone. But here it is business as usual.
It seems as our resident mortgage broker/pumper/shill/stooge tries to discredit this site by:
a. Playing definition with the term "fliper"
b. Attacking the legality of the site.
Who cares. It is what it is. All it is showing to date are reductions in asking prices. Where will it go from here? Don't know for sure, but blogs like VFIT will give us the a heads up.
June 24th, 2008 at 9:08 am
regarding the legal debate: It is demonstrably provable that the seller is having 'trouble' selling for the original asking price or they wouldn't have dropped said asking price. The information listed is all public -the 'privacy' argument is just smokescreen.
If the goal of listing a property for sale, or dropping the asking price is to generate interest and actually sell the property the point could be made that sites like 'flippers in trouble' highlight properties where the seller is motivated, providing a valuable service to both the buyer and seller.
June 24th, 2008 at 8:36 am
April 2008 Case-Shiller numbers are out.
Dave: would luv to hear your spin on this
YVR will be visiting this station in about 2 years
may as well start preparing for the downturn now
don't buy now, you will be sorry if you do
June 24th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Jonathan
If you feel that way then buy all you can, there's plenty to go around, why don't you have a competition with yourself and see if you can sign a dozen mortgages by the end of the week.
Just one favour to ask though. When you're filing for bankruptcy can you come back here and tell us so we can have a good laugh?
June 24th, 2008 at 8:19 am
In other news, the April 2008 Case-Shiller numbers are out. Seattle is now down 6.6% since its peak in July 2007.
Actually, Seattle went up about a half percent between March and April.
June 24th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Jonathan buddy,
"This IS the best place on earth you rental trash."
I don't think I've ever seen the bull case put more succinctly. Thanks for that.
It's weird…. I've lived in Nova Scotia, Quebec, all over Ontario and Alberta. *ONLY* in B.C. have I ever heard denigrating comments about renters.
Best place on earth, indeed.
I"m thinking of packing up and heading elsewhere…..Australia beckons. I might come into a tidy pile of cash and a few months on the other side of the pacific might be just the thing.
I have to say, today's the day I'm glad I rent. B.C. has been freaking me out. Nobody's on the street and it's the middle of the summer. Well…. I think it's summer. We've seen sun so rarely lately.
It's awesome… I can just ditch the stuff I don't need, jump on a plane and go. I kind of feel like leaving Vancouver and its ridiculous housing problems behind for a while. I've never seen a city with so much construction going on around so few people, yet even the middle class is stretched really thin when it comes to decent housing.
You really kind of have to drink a lot of the kool-aid to ignore the problems in this city and eventually, pretty just doesn't cut it.
June 24th, 2008 at 7:19 am
I think all of you are nuts. The real estate market in Vancouver is top notch. Vancouverites are the saviest real estate owners in the world. There is no way I repeat no way that prices are going down. This IS the best place on earth you rental trash.
June 24th, 2008 at 6:21 am
I suppose you simply did not do your homework I prescribed to you. You do not understand what a HPI really means and how to use it. Or maybe you understood it, but chose to simply ignore it because it DOES TELL the truth about the housing market in general.
So, explain to me Dave how could the index climb 2 to 3x as much in 6 years when prior years, it took 20 years to double?!? And how do you explain why the HPI index is dropping like a rock in 2 years after 2006 in some states? Remember that HPI “tracks” the transaction of homes and it only changes when it is bought or sold
I thought I had already responded to your HPI question.
HPI is not a valuation or affordability metric, which is what you seem to suggest it can be used for. So, I don't see the point in answering your question regarding the time period for HPI to double. Rather, I think it is better to simply look at affordability or other valuation metrics.
The problem with HPI is where you set your base year. Let's say we picked 1981 in BC right at the peak and contrast it to an HPI base year of 1982 after the crash. The difference in these two values would be roughly 30 to 40%.
June 24th, 2008 at 6:00 am
Case Shiller Index shows a 15.3% decline in RE prices in April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&a…
Chris Hurst (sp?) on Global this morning was talking about how US RE prices dropped back to 2004 prices with millions of Americans owing more than their homes are worth.
The RE woes in the US are far from over. Good thing we're not in the US, eh?
June 24th, 2008 at 5:51 am
My concern with the VFIT site is that, our privacy laws are quite strict and quite often enforced.
WHAT privacy? ALL information on the site is not only in the public domain but previously advertised by the seller on the MLS. An MLS listing is a public solicitation for bids.
And again, "flipper" is just a slang term for an RE investor. There is NFW anyone is going to be able to make a successful claim against any user of that term. People use far more offensive language on this blog and elsewhere and we all know it.
In other news, the April 2008 Case-Shiller numbers are out. Seattle is now down 6.6% since its peak in July 2007. San Diego, the west coast city that peaked first in June 2006, is now down 28%.
June 24th, 2008 at 5:29 am
Am I the only one here who thinks "Browntown" has a thing for nuts?
June 24th, 2008 at 5:20 am
Patriotz,
I know Phil and Garth have retained lawyers on an advisory role, simply because the nature of their business. Mr. Turner could have been sued by countless of thousands of Nortel investors when he was pumping for Dynamic Funds Inc. He claimed he's an investment advisor, but in fact he was not. He's was a business writer, but he made sure in his seminars that he implied that he was. I did not like his business practice, but he is working with the laws.
My concern with the VFIT site is that, our privacy laws are quite strict and quite often enforced. The advantage of our privacy laws is that, its enforcement is completely paid for by us, the tax payers. An individual can simply file a complaint to the privacy commissioner stating the obvious facts, the invasion of his or her privacy. That is also why, we also have a "DO NOT CALL LIST" too, thanks to the privacy act. Our phone number, while on lease by the phone company, is in fact not copyrightable. But, when call centers make marketing calls on your number, you can stop this by putting your number of the DO NOT CALL LIST. This is your right. In fact, the next thing they call you, don't hang up. Instead, ask them nicely to be put on the do not call list. If they refuse, you can exercise this limited right for 2 years (I forgot the exact number).
I routinely do this to them. At first they were mean. But when I filed a complaint to the privacy commission, funny that I do not get calls from any of these shills anymore. This is your right..
While the VFIT site lists the property and the listing history, its title on the blog leaves viewers on the site to believe that the property itself is being flipped. Can the site organizer proves this to be 100% true? If he or she can, it means that the site organizer has that individual's private information without the individual's signed consent. Do you see where I'm getting at?
I have actually heard of one individual who had successfully filed a complaint against a computer company he frequent to simply because, the salesperson told his competitor what computer and software he was using for his business through casual conversation. To us, this is nonsense, but to this individual, it was a breach of privacy and that compromises his competitive edge, because now his competition knows his secret!