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Dramatic market changes

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This is a pass-off post to Paul Boenisch at nvcondos.ca who has just posted some dramatic month-end June stats on his blog.

If you haven’t seen these numbers yet, or if you have any doubt that the Lower Mainland real estate market is undergoing a dramatic shift, check them out now.  Supply continues to grow while sales keep dropping.

Here are a few highlights:

Sales down 41% from June 2007
Inventory up 53% from last year
North Vancouver inventory up 113%

Check out Paul’s blog for all these stats and more graphed out for some dramatic visuals.

So far prices haven’t been impacted much at all, but increasing supply and decreasing demand will put pressure there unless this dramatic shift reverses soon.  Could we be in danger of tracking the US market?

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jesse

"Now, it’s becoming difficult to get higher paying jobs and it is these jobs that would ideally meet inflationary pressures"

It's extremely important to understand that while we see CPI inflation it does not mean that wage inflation is a sure thing and for house prices total wages is what matters. CPI inflation without wage inflation is devastating for house prices. Even if there were wage inflation, interest rates would be much higher and eroded affordability would destroy high prices faster than wages could be raised to compensate. Either road you take, the end result is devastation.

Save a massive sweet crude oil strike in Queen Elizabeth Park, nothing will save Vancouver house prices now.

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Drachen

"we produce things that the rest of the world needs to buy like… um….

Lululemon?"

Some Lululemon articles are produced in Vancouver, most are produced in; United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, India, Thailand and Indonesia.

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The Van Man

These days, inflation is our major threat. In all the 3rd world countries, inflation rate is inching upwards and some speculate might become double digit come this summer or have already been. People need to understand that when easy credit is available, people's first instinct is to exploit it to make MORE MONEY. That's how you drive prices up, sans fundamentals, because easy credit itself is someone else's or fiat money. Bernanke tried a passive deflationary tactic without having to raise rates and is having some success so far. He doesn't want a repeat of the 1970s and 1980s, but I think sooner of later he will have no choice, because while house prices are trending lower, it's not low enough to cause the economy to spiral into a deep recession. Which means, inflationary pressures will continue to increase. They… Read more »

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jesse

"The way I see it, with the great inventory available in these Western provinces and prices that are still very reasonable by international standards"

Just more proof at how little anyone outside of BC really cares about BC and more specifically Vancouver. Remember that BC real estate is 95% local and the 5% that isn't is drying up fast.

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umdesch4

This thread just goes to show how you have to be careful with sarcasm. No matter how dripping with sarcasm your posts are, no matter how over-the-top and outrageous they sound…they're still hard to distinguish from the authentic bullish posts these days.

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Just saying

I still think Browntown has an unhealthy obsession with nuts.

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Anonymous

Is Krissh impersonating himself and then calling himself on it?

Why don't you find out from the pope?maybe you are worried about the real answer right?tdk? oh i mean bdk?

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notbdk

thet weznet me abock who write wrong that market going down

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bdk

Is Krissh impersonating himself and then calling himself on it?

It makes sense to try to bring the blog off topic, so to recap

1.The Condo Market is finsihed.

2.Pre Sales at TV Towers are going to sell for $120,000 each within the year.

You never could get through the kids book "The Emperors New Clothes" could you?

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browntown

yeah thats a bad browntown impression unknown nutslapper! take your cash to ontario and look for job in gm plant or starbucks, report back one year let us know how it goes! good thing here we make grass and yoga gear, helps keep the market calm! ha ha

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Anonymous

yeah!yeah!! browntown professor was trying to nutslap american because more the vancouver market will appreciate american less likelly to buy in usa same song is this headslaper from ontario is singing to halt migration from ontario to vancouver, man oh man who bought his book "greater slapers on earth"?I guess nutslapers!

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patriotz

don’t buy in ontario! soon gm plants go bankrupt meaning big recession!

Yep, good thing that here in BC we produce things that the rest of the world needs to buy like… um….

Lululemon?

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Joe Stalin

Not in VICTORIA!!! Victoria is the greenest, most environmentally conscious, politically correct, liberal multicultural, grain fed, organic city in the world. Even the $40 tea at the empress is organic and socially responsible made by goats. Victoria's energy comes from wave power and the poop we flush into the sea.

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browntown

yeah slapnuts i agree, don't buy in ontario! soon gm plants go bankrupt meaning big recession! interest rates coming down lower than a prairie sunset! means positive cash flow for brown and in town! yeah

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-A-

///////////////////

./././././

,./l;l;l;

It’s funny how the Chipmanonians attribute the meltdown in the US to the subprime, and the buffoons leap into the false claim that in Canada we don’t have subprime.

Fact is we have subprime, 40 year mortgages, stated income, and interest only, second, and third mortgages and approvals based on fiction.

It’s just a straw man argument, intended to divert the fact that the subprime market in the US is not the problem, in fact there is a huge glut of mid to upper range priced homes, and the foreclosures are no greater in the low priced homes.

Sure the low end side of the market has its share of foreclosures, but the glut of inventory, and the bulk of foreclosures is not by any means restricted to the less than perfect credit scores.

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blueskies

I think the housing slow down will be isolated to Eastern Canada. There is just too much of an economic boom going on in provinces such as BC, Alberta, and especially Saskatchewan to indicate that there is going to be any sort of slowing in the housing market. In the case of Saskatchewan, I just read that the most recent statisics indicate that the housing prices are going to jump by a further 36% just this year, so if one was looking to buy this would still be an excellent place to purchase as the massive equity gains in the first year will offset any sort of extra interest that would accrue should someone choose one of the new innovative 40 year mortgage systems. The way I see it, with the great inventory available in these Western provinces and prices… Read more »

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Thums up2

BDK,

Isn’t it Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.who said Canada has avoided technical recession in other artical from Statistic Canada where Vehicle sales and retail sales edges up along with fuel and grocery prices?

I don't know what is wrong with banks and their economists since they had handsome hair cut in hollywood parlour they feel like world class customer for hair stylests.They should use stylests from vancouver where extra care is being taken.

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Vansanity

I find the whole "history repeats itself" concept fascinating to watch unfold. What I find particularly interesting with the oil prices is the ripple effect in the 70's and 80's… guess where we are today?

Oil closed at $143 per barrel.

From the Vancouver Sun today –

The agency (OPEC) suggested in a news release accompanying the report that the world may be going into "oil shock" for the third time in history — "record oil prices in recent months have become a threat to the global economy and social welfare of millions of people."

Energy is the basis of economic development, and if it's too expensive over a prolonged period of time, it can trigger inflation, economic stagnation and unemployment.

Oil shocks in the early 1970s and 1980s had precisely those effects on the global economy.

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.htm…

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blueskies

staggeringly self-absorbed

beautiful turn of phrase

so apt it makes my teeth hurt

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Vansanity

Anecdotal: I was at a new condo building this afternoon. In a conversation with the Manager I learned that the building is 40% vacant. In case you are curious it's a 16 storey – 122 Unit development. That's approx 48 Units vacant. He went further to say that when they sold that development, people bought in "blocks". Meaning they bought 5, 6 or 7 units at one time. Some flipped post-completion (all of this isn't news to most of you) and others are holding. He said: "they're holding until after the Olympics", "Okay" I replied. We both laughed. What's even funnier: there are two towers going up on either side of this building. One is it's phase II and the other is a different developer. Most of those presales are already sold, at least enough for the developer to finish… Read more »

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Vansanity

In other news:

The S&P/TSX composite index retreated 432.92 points to 14,034.11.

"The primary reason here is simply that there seems to be a disappearing level of confidence in our market," said Fred Ketchen, manager of equity trading at Scotia Capital.

"Confidence has declined in the ability of our economy to maintain its head above water, many people are growing to believe that a recession in the U.S. is probably well-established now and the spillover into the Canadian economy is going to be more severe than many had figured."

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Scratchy

Actually if any one Canadian town is more staggeringly self-absorbed and self-regarding than Vancouver it has to be Victoria. Market declines will come as a greater shock to the pampered boomer retirees there than in the lower mainland.

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Drachen

"The Dow closed today at 11,215, down more than 20 percent from the October high, officially making this a bear market."

– ABC news

How does that ring, "Officially… a bear market."

How long before they say that about Vancouver Real Estate? A year? Two?

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Drachen

"Everyone wants to live in Victoria. It’s the Hawaii of Canada and everyone knows it."

I know you're just being ironic. It's especially funny because the real deal Hawaii is starting to tank. Sales are the lowest they've been in 10 years.

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Confused

Victoria is the Florida of Canada and everyone knows it. All the canadians want to retire in Victoria (even though most of them buy in Flordia). RE in Florida is a blood bath. Victoria will be the same.

By the way, Victoria is a cold, rainy dump. Anyone would choose tropical florida. Hundreds of thousands of Canadian snow birds are a testament to that fact. No one has coined a term for "everyone" that wants to move to Victoria because not many people do. Florida is where everyone buys and it is still tanking.

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