Dramatic market changes
This is a pass-off post to Paul Boenisch at nvcondos.ca who has just posted some dramatic month-end June stats on his blog.
If you haven’t seen these numbers yet, or if you have any doubt that the Lower Mainland real estate market is undergoing a dramatic shift, check them out now. Supply continues to grow while sales keep dropping.
Here are a few highlights:
Sales down 41% from June 2007
Inventory up 53% from last year
North Vancouver inventory up 113%
Check out Paul’s blog for all these stats and more graphed out for some dramatic visuals.
So far prices haven’t been impacted much at all, but increasing supply and decreasing demand will put pressure there unless this dramatic shift reverses soon. Could we be in danger of tracking the US market?
July 1st, 2008 at 11:09 am 1
"So far prices haven’t been impacted much at all"
I disagree. They have been impacted – they aren't going UP. Whether they've started to go down or not is yet to be confirmed by the benchmarks etc… but it's very clear that the terms "new price" and "reduced" are the latest fad.
Of the 10 open houses I attended in June, all in Port Moody, 8 of them had been reduced. The number of reduced ads on Craigslist has nearly doubled since February when I first started keeping track of them on the forum. Aside from new listings, it's hard to find old listings that haven't been reduced.
If you look closely at condo listings especially, the reductions are really throwing prices out of whack. Primarily, units on lower floors, same size, view, etc… selling for the exact same price as units on much higher floors. Here's a snip from http://www.coquitlamcondo.com
# 301 1178 HEFFLEY CR North Coquitlam 2 2 965 $389,000
# 1203 1178 HEFFLEY CR North Coquitlam 2 2 965 $389,000
# 1802 1178 HEFFLEY CR North Coquitlam 2 2 965 $376,000
That 3rd floor is going to be a TOUGH sell when a nearly identical unit is selling for $13K lower on the 18th!
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July 1st, 2008 at 11:13 am 2
Sales down 41% from June 2007
Inventory up 53% from last year
In April inventory rose mostly because new listings increased.
I June, inventory rose mostly because sales dropped.
May was somewhere in between from what I recall.
Looks like supply handed the baton off to demand. Coincidence? Perfect storm? What is next? New listings picking up again?
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July 1st, 2008 at 12:17 pm 3
Can someone explain the rationale of this particular listing price change to me in light of the substantial run-up in inventory? MLS #V715148 was bumped up from $399,000 and is now listed at $529,000. Why would they do that in the middle of a major inventory buildup?
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July 1st, 2008 at 12:44 pm 4
The fact is, prices HAVE fallen.
It's easy to check. Look for units in the same buildings that have closed late last year compared to a month or two ago.
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July 1st, 2008 at 12:59 pm 5
exx: fair point – I should have said we aren't seeing dramatic price drops in the benchmarks, obviously prices have stopped rising and reduced asking prices are becoming more common.
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July 1st, 2008 at 1:12 pm 6
Can someone explain the rationale of this particular listing price change to me in light of the substantial run-up in inventory? MLS #V715148 was bumped up from $399,000 and is now listed at $529,000. Why would they do that in the middle of a major inventory buildup?
My guess is the person will let it sit at that price for a while, then 'reduce' it to ~$450,000, either directly in the listing or during negotiations, in the hopes of making a sale.
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July 1st, 2008 at 2:48 pm 7
2012: "World Real Estate prices aline at levels not seen since the late 1970's". "All planets aline as well"
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July 1st, 2008 at 2:55 pm 8
“Sales down 41% from June 2007
Inventory up 53% from last year
North Vancouver inventory up 113%”
But prices have not dropped yet, which is good. If prices did adjust gradually downward to reflect the inventory level and slower sales, it would indicate a proper functioning market which was operating on fundamentals, and not hysteria; clearly this is not the case.
This is a bubble and that is how pricing behaves in bubbles, no give- just a snap.
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July 1st, 2008 at 3:04 pm 9
"If prices did adjust gradually downward to reflect the inventory level and slower sales, it would indicate a proper functioning market which was operating on fundamentals"
What matters is prices returning to fundamentals. An "ordered" slowdown does not disprove the existence of a bubble, rather it would prove the banks and CMHC are bigger idiots than the rest of us. I think we'll find out soon enough.
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July 1st, 2008 at 3:16 pm 10
I just talked to a realtor who said he didn't sell a single thing in June. Zip, zilch, zero.
This is a realtor who made $300k last year.
However, he explained that "things will pick up, now that the good weather's here."
Oh, sure…
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July 1st, 2008 at 3:20 pm 11
Exx,
your link does not back up your post.
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July 1st, 2008 at 3:37 pm 12
Say Ahhhh… Direct link to listings referred to in post 1
Really though, it doesn't matter. Look at any highrises on NetworkOfCondos that have 10+ listings, they're all out of whack. This is just one example.
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July 1st, 2008 at 3:57 pm 13
V715148:
In the Realtor remarks it states "Seller will agree to a holdback in the amount of the upcoming special assessment".
Must be a timing issue around the assessment. Sell for lower amount and buyer pays assessment. Sell for higher amount and seller pays assessment.
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July 1st, 2008 at 3:58 pm 14
# 301 1178 HEFFLEY CR North Coquitlam 2 2 965 $389,000
Bedrooms: 2 Area (sq ft): 965
Bathrooms: 2 Year Built: 2008
Type: Apartment
Description: Coquitlam's tallest building, brand new 2 bedrooms, den & 2 baths + 2 parking. The best layout in the building, 965 sq ft + 73 sq ft balcony. Close to Coquitlam Town Centre, restaurants, public library & recreation centre.
Features: Fireplace,Exercise centre,Passenger elevator,Recreation centre,Appliances Included
Amenities: Sauna/Steam,In Suite Ldry.
Est. Property Tax: $0.00
Maintenance Fee: $195.58
#1203
Bedrooms: 2 Area (sq ft): 965
Bathrooms: 2 Year Built: 2008
Type: Apartment
Description: Obelisk by Coquitlam Centre. Beautiful SE Mount Baker view with 2 bedrooms, 2 bath + den & large balcony. Upgraded stainless steel appliances. GST is paid and priced for quick sale.
Features: Central location,Recreation nearby,Shopping nearby,Fireplace,Exercise centre,Passenger elevator,Appliances Included
Amenities: In Suite Ldry.
Est. Property Tax: $1,945.00
Maintenance Fee: $170.00
all right exx,
you can see the difference in #301 is on lower floor but it has 2 parking included in the price.In downtown vancouver a single small parking lot cost around $40-50k imagine parking in coco is on half prices still 2 parking cost way two much.
So it's doesn't make any sence when we don't know a heck about market right exx?
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July 1st, 2008 at 4:32 pm 15
None of this matters. Bulls know that increased supply and decreasing demand does not lead to price declines. This is because no one will sell a house if they are getting lower price. Past prices declines in Vancouver and the rest of the world only happened because in the past people had to sell. Today, no one has to sell. Therefore nothing will make prices go down.
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July 1st, 2008 at 6:06 pm 16
#16
Are you pimping for betamax a brother of realtor sister don't you see 'thums up' and 'confused' are over taking the thread by strong arguments.
It could be possible that #16 is also a realtor-jeff is a realtor as well while exx is also a realtor who intentionally displaying link to his listing.
Nski is also a realtor says"#V715148 was bumped up from $399,000 and is now listed at $529,000. Why would they do that in the middle of a major inventory buildup?
NSKI some how your ref # does not show the price changes as claimed in your post.
How many realtors are wasting time of other posters here, no wonder you guys are unable to describe market because you are pumping bubble in the market on the blogs with misleading information.
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July 1st, 2008 at 6:15 pm 17
Anonymous #17 – hahahahahah! I'm a realtor because I asked why an increased price change??? hahahahah! Go ask a realtor about that listing yourself before you jump to conclusions.
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July 1st, 2008 at 6:19 pm 18
but where is the difference in prices?
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July 1st, 2008 at 6:40 pm 19
Here’s my anecdote from Kelowna:
The girlfriend has been renting a basement suite in the house of a fairly prominent local realtor for the past few years. We finished moving her today because the realtor sold his house months ago and is moving his family to renting a duplex. The wife is very much annoyed (possibly due to the embarrassment of becoming a lowly renter??), so it’s quite apparent the decision was made by the man of the house.
Now this particular realtor has been in the game for decades, and if he is of the opinion that the market has peaked and it’s time to cash out, I believe him. When the GF was discussing the RE market with him last week, he vehemently forbid her from buying a condo within the next couple of years. According to him the upcoming swell of supply coming down the pipe here in the Okanagan is simply staggering. I wonder if he tells his clients that little bit of info? Hmm…
Some further analysis on my area:
1. Our local economy has been gradually shifting from tourism-based to construction/RE. I wouldn’t be surprised if tourism activity is down due to the high Cdn$ for foreigners (especially Americans), high gas prices for RVers, and we’re destroying all of our campgrounds/waterslides/other attractions to make way for new condo developments. Every second vehicle on the highway is a jacked-up truck with “Contracting” or “Landscaping” plastered on the side.
2. The stats from omreb.com: 35% increase in listings, 41% decrease in sales yoy for May.
3. The cost of living relative to local incomes has become absurd. I am a highly-qualified, in-demand young professional, and if I were to work in downtown Van I’d gross approx 20% more, and 1 bedroom condos are renting for about $1k here these days. Good thing I actually like living here, or I’d be elsewhere… like all of my educated friends. The only people I know from back in the day still here are the aforementioned construction workers.
4. I’m in my mid-twenties and have a greater income than either of my parents ever had, and their SFH is suddenly worth $600k, while I can’t begin to afford a basic condo using traditional metrics? Something doesn’t add up…
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July 1st, 2008 at 6:49 pm 20
BTW – Thanks Jeff for the info about the special assessment. That is not available on the public MLS. I notice another unit in the same complex (MLS®: V685500) that is listed at $379,000. It would seem reasonable that it too might have a price increase in the near future given Jeff's insight.
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July 1st, 2008 at 6:59 pm 21
I don't think we need to make a really big deal about this – listings are up and sales are down, but so what? Markets change all the time. Even IF we were to track the US market it's been more than two year for the US markets to fall where they are today and thats not been that far. Do you really want to wait for more than two years to buy when there are so many good option on the market right now? Even IF prices were to fall you'd probably pay more on rent while you wait than you'd lose in a correction.
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July 1st, 2008 at 7:21 pm 22
I'm curious about the seeming lack of open houses. Inventory is way above where it was last year but I don't see any more open houses. What is everyone else's take, am I missing them? Are realtors just not bothering?
Also I was in Edmonton this week man we don't have a clue what a boom looks like out here. I have a few stories but the most telling was the fact that we couldn't get pizza delivered (because they don't have enough drivers).
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July 1st, 2008 at 7:31 pm 23
“Commented a wary Toronto Star real estate reporter: “ It did seem fishy that we got calls and emails from marketers and real estate agents tipping us off to lineups-sometimes before the lineups had even formed. One reader, who claimed to have flipped nearly 100 condos since 2001, told us that paying a bunch of kids a couple of grand to camp out on the sidewalk is cheaper and more effective than advertising. He added that ‘you tv and newspaper people are all suckers.”
Page 45 greater fool Garth Turner’s book.
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July 1st, 2008 at 8:06 pm 24
Well
i have driven around the burnaby/ new West area and they are definitely more listings…I also find a lot more reduced and new price…usually means lower but still ridiculously high.. Most of my friends have only nominal pay increases since 2003 but nothing compared to housing… as for correction where …when… how much still uncertain.
me personnally… as tax payers we should not bail out anyone including banks. everybody came into this housing chaos of their own free will. whether u missed out on 2003 steep increase or potentially bad downturn, its your decision. If CMHC blows their budget…then thats it…close down. no increase on their budget!!!
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July 1st, 2008 at 8:16 pm 25
Do you really want to wait for more than two years to buy when there are so many good option on the market right now? Even IF prices were to fall you’d probably pay more on rent while you wait than you’d lose in a correction.
Ever head of "mortgage", "taxes", "insurance", etc, jackass?
I don't know what's worse – that the poster knows this is BS and expects us to buy it, or whether he really believes it.
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July 1st, 2008 at 8:45 pm 26
Dosh,
You really are a moron aren't you. Even if prices stayed flat, the carrying costs of a mortgage would put you farther in the hole than renting.
Idiots like you forget things like mortgage carrying costs. Ignoring any opportunity costs; almost every place will cost more to carry a mortgage than rent. Lets simplify and forget about compounding etc. Even with an insane 5.5%.
$300K Mortgage – $16.5K thrown away to bank
$400K Mortgage – $22K thrown away to bank
$500K Mortgage – $27.5K thrown away to bank
$600K Mortgage – $33K thrown away to bank
Whos rent's are more than these?
You are simply a moron, and I sure hope nobodies future ever relies on your advice, because you obviously were not blessed with a level of intelligence high enough to render you capable of rational thought. You are a parrot.
Dosh the Parrot
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July 1st, 2008 at 8:48 pm 27
The Pope asked: "Could we be in danger of tracking the US market?"
The danger now is no greater than it has been in the last 2.5 years–it's always been around 99% likely.
Whybuywhenucanrent'til'13?
**Forecasting a 50% drop in Van area RE by April, 2012!!**
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July 1st, 2008 at 8:56 pm 28
Whybuywhenucanrent’til’13?
Because if you were 50 year old three year ago you would be 58 year old.in last decades vancouver home prices got lots of appreciation some area got doubled and some tripled.
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July 1st, 2008 at 8:57 pm 29
no rush: indeed the real estate market in kelowna is much more elastic than here, the fundamentals are bad, expect a big haircut for kelowna. even rents will get cheaper. lower mainland here is much stronger on the demand side and supply contraints have more permanency. kelowna market-think edmonton without the good jobs.
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July 1st, 2008 at 8:58 pm 30
.
.
Hey patriotz,
FYI, Dosh is not a "he".
Not only is she of the female variety, and if not blonde, certainly…er…"special"
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July 1st, 2008 at 9:09 pm 31
Listings typically peak this time of year and go down afterwards.
why is that?
because assessment value cover the year from july to july buyer feel like the market value will come down otherside sellers think they are already in good position till july so does the assessment value would be- in that spuzm if buyer is able to buy on any bargain the assessment prices will add more value to their purchase other hands if sellers take off the listing or does not reduce the prices he is definitley going to get more value of his unit.
This trick play with both buyers and sellers so it is up to them anyway most of sellers if they don't reduce prices and their unit does not sell they most likely to take it off from the list and re-list in January that's the reason behind listing up and down.
Increase number of listing in the first six month also has a relation with high prices between january to june. sellers most likely to get higher prices for their unit but market get cold around july to dec they most likely to get low prices compare to assessment value.
Greater Vancouver average prices
May 2008 $624,639
May 2007 $591,722
Listings
May 2008 17,336 sales to list 17.7%
May 2007 12,555 Sales to list 35.1%
This figures above indicate a difference in sales volume between the booming period of 2007 and colling off period of 2008.
In 2009 the 53% listing gap will be eliminated compare to 2008 because market has returned to normal market.
Because of less future supply market will be in very tight position very less stress to reduce prices but if rents goes up market will perform exceptionally well in future.
BC average home prices may 2008 $477,448
may 2007 $449,092
British Columbia Population
April 1st 2008 4,428,356
April 1st 2002 4,105,904
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July 1st, 2008 at 9:39 pm 32
Good one Thums, especially posting as someone else:
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=…
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July 1st, 2008 at 10:19 pm 33
Dosh and ThumsUp2, you're both absolutely shameless pump and dump scum.
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July 1st, 2008 at 11:11 pm 34
the bear market began april 26th 2008. the writting is on the wall! there is no debate about what is going down in the markets my people.
The real challenge is estimating the stupidity of regular Vancouverites….. how long will it take for sence and reason to inflitrate their brains…… that is the real question friends.
XOXO
Romeo
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July 1st, 2008 at 11:49 pm 35
Just a refresher on how events will unfold from where we stand now.
The Pattern Repeats
* It all starts with an attitude change.
* The pool of greater fools dries up.
* Sellers refuse to admit the market has turned.
* Volume of sales plunges.
* Home prices eventually follow.
* Sellers chase last month's price all the way down.
* Eventually the sellers get underwater.
* Defaults and bankruptcies soar.
Click the link below to read the whole post on the Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Australia Home Lending At Lowest Level Since 1991
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July 1st, 2008 at 4:59 pm 36
[...] in a related vein, this from betamax at Vancouver Condo Info July 1st,2008 3:16pm [...]
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July 2nd, 2008 at 3:18 am 37
According to him the upcoming swell of supply coming down the pipe here in the Okanagan is simply staggering. I wonder if he tells his clients that little bit of info?
Oh I'm sure he does. He wants to make a sale – that's what he's hired for.
Remember – a realtor's client is the seller. Only.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 5:33 am 38
"According to him the upcoming swell of supply coming down the pipe here in the Okanagan is simply staggering. I wonder if he tells his clients that little bit of info?"
Almost every professional with available credit in the Kelowna/Okanagan area is stretched to the outer limits, for some strange reason,RE speculating has become a cult activity, and in that circle, there is a stigma attached with not being in the RE spec game.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 6:20 am 39
A stigma just like not owning Nortel stock at a certain point in time.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 7:19 am 40
"Almost every professional with available credit in the Kelowna/Okanagan area is stretched to the outer limits, for some strange reason,RE speculating has become a cult activity, and in that circle, there is a stigma attached with not being in the RE spec game."
Very much agreed. Speaking as a young Okanagan professional, when I received my latest raise (which was very substantial, in order to retain me), the first question asked by the higher-up colleagues that are privy to the details was, "so where are you going to buy a house?" Initially I figured they were encouraging me to settle down so there was less risk of me moving away, but now I realize it's more likely they are just drinking the kool-aid. These people make well over 6 figures, so it isn't a stretch to think they have their fingers in RE spec for investment purposes.
And then there are my direct colleagues, who have comparable incomes to me. They have new cars, boats, blow hundreds of $ on weekend drinking. I live like a pauper in comparison in order to put aside a reasonable monthly amount into savings. There is no way their lifestyle is sustainable long-term. I'd venture to say projecting one's image in the valley is even more important to most than at the coast, but our incomes are seriously inferior. Good thing we white-collar professionals get all sorts of special rates/offerings for lines of credit at local banks, I suppose everyone trusts us. Too bad the debt still exists for these people, no matter how low the rate is at the moment.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 8:00 am 41
NoRush-For sure, Kelowna must be the bubbliest city in Canada. I do business there regularly and can't believe how many people are into the real estate game, all convinced that "everyone wants to live here". Too bad there aren't many decent jobs to support the house prices. Jeez…I should have bought that house down the street for $89k about 10 years ago. Now it's selling for $350k. I'll keep watching the condo market and hope I can pick one up for $50k in a few years ;p I don't think that's too much to ask, is it?
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July 2nd, 2008 at 8:16 am 42
Dosh
"Do you really want to wait for more than two years to buy when there are so many good option on the market right now? Even IF prices were to fall you’d probably pay more on rent while you wait than you’d lose in a correction."
Gee, let me see, 5,400 in rent for the next 3 years vs 75,000 on a similar unit if the market loses only 10% I guess they don't teach math at realtor school huh?
Especially since if, as you say, we follow the American pattern and our market falls 50% or so in the next 3 years. Oh look I'm saving $370,000 by waiting three years. Not including property tax or maintenance! Hmm, what a tough decision for me. Save $370k or waste $370k… Well since that's such chump change I'm sure you could put a guarantee on any place you sell that you'll make up the difference if it falls in price right?
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July 2nd, 2008 at 8:17 am 43
5,400 in rent
Should read $54,000
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July 2nd, 2008 at 10:34 am 44
You have to compare the rent to the holding costs (interest, taxes, etc) of the property, as well as including capital gain/loss.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 11:08 am 45
Drachen, also include transaction costs (commission and PTT). "Interest" is mortgage interest plus the interest foregone by not investing the principal.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 11:10 am 46
Crazy…my landlord dropped by last night and again offered to sell me the place I'm living in. "Look," he said "You can get a mortgage for $300k and it will only cost you $1800/month" (I currently pay $1350/month in rent)he said "At least you'll get to keep $500/month for yourself rather than throwing it away on rent" YIKES!!! "Keep"?? How about throwing it away on interest? According to the amortization schedule I'd be throwing away $1300/month in interest alone. And how about the strata fee ($240/month) and property tax (prob $100/month). Duh. He also brought up the 40 year mortgage as an option. NO THANK YOU! Think I'll keep up my cheap rent and sock away that extra $1000 /month for a nice downpayment on a detached house a few years down the line…when prices make sense again.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am 47
"NoRush-For sure, Kelowna must be the bubbliest city in Canada. I do business there regularly and can’t believe how many people are into the real estate game, all convinced that “everyone wants to live here”. Too bad there aren’t many decent jobs to support the house prices. Jeez…I should have bought that house down the street for $89k about 10 years ago. Now it’s selling for $350k. I’ll keep watching the condo market and hope I can pick one up for $50k in a few years ;p I don’t think that’s too much to ask, is it?"
pricedoutfornow,
It's true, it seems most local residents are very high on the "everyone wants to live here" motto. Most expect all the retiring boomers to move here since we have decent weather (even though we still get snow for a few months of the year). The question I pose to them is, why would retirees buy a shoebox condo here when they can get an actual house in true retirement communities like Florida and Arizona for a fraction of the price? And our cost of living is sky-rocketing, which would certainly turn-off any fixed income retirees. Some recent retirees I know have actually left to settle in the maritimes.
The other demographic of "everyone wants to live here" being workers. As I mentioned earlier, would the masses take a 20-25% paycut to live here? The trade-off is beaches, golf courses, mountains, lakes, etc., but pretty much everywhere else in Canada already has these features to some extent, and if not, take your increased wage and go to Mexico for a month instead. Our firm is trying to hire a new management figure, with very competitive compensation for our area – literally zero inquiries for the past couple months.
As far as I'm concerned, other than construction/RE, there are ZERO jobs to support the house prices. Our economy is based on tourism – golf courses, restaurants, wineries (FYI Okanagan wine is VERY over-rated) – all of the above paying minimum wage or only slightly better.
As for you buying a cheap condo, I'd put money on that coming up sooner than most people think. Recreational properties are the first to experience price drops, correct? That's all we have here as far as I know. It seems the majority of new developments are adjacent to a golf course, on the lake, etc. I don't have any stats but I doubt we have much immigration here for the above reasons and local incomes sure as hell don't support the prices – so who's buying these places? My bet is people who want a second home in lake country, and speculators.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 12:40 pm 48
Hey Dosh, isn't it different here?
"When charted out, these data suggest Canada is tracking the U.S. housing market fairly closely, at a two-year lag, said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
“It's a bit unnerving to see how Canadian performance is beginning to look like that of the U.S. two years down the line,” Mr. Porter said.
"
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July 2nd, 2008 at 12:41 pm 49
"my landlord dropped by last night and again offered to sell me the place I’m living in."
He's looking to save the hassle of selling by selling to you. Renters better get used to it. Just tell him thanks for the wonderful offer but it's not the best time for you to be owning.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 1:51 pm 50
Confused Says:
July 1st, 2008 at 4:32 pm
None of this matters. Bulls know that increased supply and decreasing demand does not lead to price declines. This is because no one will sell a house if they are getting lower price. Past prices declines in Vancouver and the rest of the world only happened because in the past people had to sell. Today, no one has to sell. Therefore nothing will make prices go down.
This is probably one of the stupidest bullish statement. The nation is spending money at an alarming rate, More than we make. This contrary to what you say is going to be the catalyst of this market. Sometimes sellers have to sell it is Buyers who don't have to buy… Moron
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July 2nd, 2008 at 1:53 pm 51
a good read by Garth Turner:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/
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July 2nd, 2008 at 2:02 pm 52
Not to mention that if you stuck in money into RE for an investment and you see that value drop, you're going to want to pull out and put your $$ into something else that will give you a positive return. So if the market does take a downturn, you can safely assume that investors are going to want to pull out and maybe even buy RE in the US where the market is getting close to bottoming out (since the stock market is still heading downwards).
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July 2nd, 2008 at 2:30 pm 53
jesse: Better yet, just tell your landlord you'd be happy to sign a two year lease on the place so that he can stop worrying about cash flow
I just did this with my landlord, who happily obliged to extend our generous 2% cap rate.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 2:38 pm 54
Disbelief said:
"This is probably one of the stupidest bullish statement. The nation is spending money at an alarming rate, More than we make. This contrary to what you say is going to be the catalyst of this market. Sometimes sellers have to sell it is Buyers who don’t have to buy… Moron"
Ahem, I am a bear. Read my past posts. This is the rediculous bull argument that was made repeatedly on Friday. Just restating it for sarcastic posterity. I'm glad you see the idiocy in it.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 2:52 pm 55
My apologies, but you had no other posts in this thread and I am so sick of stupid bulls saying that very statement and meaning it… The best advice for investment is always be aware of you surroundings… The writing is clearly on the wall.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 3:14 pm 56
I see no price declines coming to Victoria any time soon. This town is just far too attractive. Everyone wants to live in Victoria. It's the Hawaii of Canada and everyone knows it.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 3:20 pm 57
Victoria is the Florida of Canada and everyone knows it. All the canadians want to retire in Victoria (even though most of them buy in Flordia). RE in Florida is a blood bath. Victoria will be the same.
By the way, Victoria is a cold, rainy dump. Anyone would choose tropical florida. Hundreds of thousands of Canadian snow birds are a testament to that fact. No one has coined a term for "everyone" that wants to move to Victoria because not many people do. Florida is where everyone buys and it is still tanking.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 3:23 pm 58
"Everyone wants to live in Victoria. It’s the Hawaii of Canada and everyone knows it."
I know you're just being ironic. It's especially funny because the real deal Hawaii is starting to tank. Sales are the lowest they've been in 10 years.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 3:26 pm 59
"The Dow closed today at 11,215, down more than 20 percent from the October high, officially making this a bear market."
- ABC news
How does that ring, "Officially… a bear market."
How long before they say that about Vancouver Real Estate? A year? Two?
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July 2nd, 2008 at 3:55 pm 60
Actually if any one Canadian town is more staggeringly self-absorbed and self-regarding than Vancouver it has to be Victoria. Market declines will come as a greater shock to the pampered boomer retirees there than in the lower mainland.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 5:01 pm 61
In other news:
The S&P/TSX composite index retreated 432.92 points to 14,034.11.
"The primary reason here is simply that there seems to be a disappearing level of confidence in our market," said Fred Ketchen, manager of equity trading at Scotia Capital.
"Confidence has declined in the ability of our economy to maintain its head above water, many people are growing to believe that a recession in the U.S. is probably well-established now and the spillover into the Canadian economy is going to be more severe than many had figured."
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July 2nd, 2008 at 5:10 pm 62
Anecdotal:
I was at a new condo building this afternoon. In a conversation with the Manager I learned that the building is 40% vacant. In case you are curious it's a 16 storey – 122 Unit development. That's approx 48 Units vacant. He went further to say that when they sold that development, people bought in "blocks". Meaning they bought 5, 6 or 7 units at one time. Some flipped post-completion (all of this isn't news to most of you) and others are holding. He said: "they're holding until after the Olympics", "Okay" I replied. We both laughed.
What's even funnier: there are two towers going up on either side of this building. One is it's phase II and the other is a different developer. Most of those presales are already sold, at least enough for the developer to finish them off. Meanwhile, along the same corridor of buildings,there were sales signs stacked to the ground on several posts out front.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 5:10 pm 63
staggeringly self-absorbed
beautiful turn of phrase
so apt it makes my teeth hurt
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July 2nd, 2008 at 5:15 pm 64
I find the whole "history repeats itself" concept fascinating to watch unfold. What I find particularly interesting with the oil prices is the ripple effect in the 70's and 80's… guess where we are today?
Oil closed at $143 per barrel.
From the Vancouver Sun today –
The agency (OPEC) suggested in a news release accompanying the report that the world may be going into "oil shock" for the third time in history — "record oil prices in recent months have become a threat to the global economy and social welfare of millions of people."
Energy is the basis of economic development, and if it's too expensive over a prolonged period of time, it can trigger inflation, economic stagnation and unemployment.
Oil shocks in the early 1970s and 1980s had precisely those effects on the global economy.
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.htm…
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July 2nd, 2008 at 5:36 pm 65
BDK,
Isn’t it Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.who said Canada has avoided technical recession in other artical from Statistic Canada where Vehicle sales and retail sales edges up along with fuel and grocery prices?
I don't know what is wrong with banks and their economists since they had handsome hair cut in hollywood parlour they feel like world class customer for hair stylests.They should use stylests from vancouver where extra care is being taken.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 5:46 pm 66
I think the housing slow down will be isolated to Eastern Canada. There is just too much of an economic boom going on in provinces such as BC, Alberta, and especially Saskatchewan to indicate that there is going to be any sort of slowing in the housing market. In the case of Saskatchewan, I just read that the most recent statisics indicate that the housing prices are going to jump by a further 36% just this year, so if one was looking to buy this would still be an excellent place to purchase as the massive equity gains in the first year will offset any sort of extra interest that would accrue should someone choose one of the new innovative 40 year mortgage systems. The way I see it, with the great inventory available in these Western provinces and prices that are still very reasonable by international standards, buying and starting to earn immediate equity (36% as mentioned before if purchasing in Saskatchewan) makes a heck of a lot more sense than waiting on the sidelines and just falling further and further behind while prices to continue to rise. I think its pretty much a fact that oil won’t be dropping below $150 a barrel again, and with provinces like Saskatchewan literally floating on this black gold the average income levels for the residents are going to soar and continue to drive up housing prices. Add in other demand resources such as potash and uranium, and you have potential to have one of the wealthiest populations of the western world. Can you say 0% income tax in the near future as the province pays off all of its debt? It’s in the cards my friends – just give the new government some time. So in short, would I buy in Ontario? Heck no. Would I buy more properties in booming western Canadian locations like Saskatoon? In a heartbeat. Even though prices have jumped somewhat over the past years, they are still a relative bargain and are a sure thing to appreciate in the coming years.
Just my two cents for what its worth.
this is a comment by "michael" from garths blog
dosh is that you in disguise?
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July 2nd, 2008 at 7:14 pm 67
///////////////////
./././././
,./l;l;l;
It’s funny how the Chipmanonians attribute the meltdown in the US to the subprime, and the buffoons leap into the false claim that in Canada we don’t have subprime.
Fact is we have subprime, 40 year mortgages, stated income, and interest only, second, and third mortgages and approvals based on fiction.
It’s just a straw man argument, intended to divert the fact that the subprime market in the US is not the problem, in fact there is a huge glut of mid to upper range priced homes, and the foreclosures are no greater in the low priced homes.
Sure the low end side of the market has its share of foreclosures, but the glut of inventory, and the bulk of foreclosures is not by any means restricted to the less than perfect credit scores.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 8:06 pm 68
yeah slapnuts i agree, don't buy in ontario! soon gm plants go bankrupt meaning big recession! interest rates coming down lower than a prairie sunset! means positive cash flow for brown and in town! yeah
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July 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 pm 69
Not in VICTORIA!!! Victoria is the greenest, most environmentally conscious, politically correct, liberal multicultural, grain fed, organic city in the world. Even the $40 tea at the empress is organic and socially responsible made by goats. Victoria's energy comes from wave power and the poop we flush into the sea.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 9:13 pm 70
don’t buy in ontario! soon gm plants go bankrupt meaning big recession!
Yep, good thing that here in BC we produce things that the rest of the world needs to buy like… um….
Lululemon?
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July 2nd, 2008 at 9:19 pm 71
yeah!yeah!! browntown professor was trying to nutslap american because more the vancouver market will appreciate american less likelly to buy in usa same song is this headslaper from ontario is singing to halt migration from ontario to vancouver, man oh man who bought his book "greater slapers on earth"?I guess nutslapers!
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July 2nd, 2008 at 9:31 pm 72
yeah thats a bad browntown impression unknown nutslapper! take your cash to ontario and look for job in gm plant or starbucks, report back one year let us know how it goes! good thing here we make grass and yoga gear, helps keep the market calm! ha ha
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July 2nd, 2008 at 9:59 pm 73
Is Krissh impersonating himself and then calling himself on it?
It makes sense to try to bring the blog off topic, so to recap
1.The Condo Market is finsihed.
2.Pre Sales at TV Towers are going to sell for $120,000 each within the year.
You never could get through the kids book "The Emperors New Clothes" could you?
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July 2nd, 2008 at 10:05 pm 74
thet weznet me abock who write wrong that market going down
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July 2nd, 2008 at 10:06 pm 75
Is Krissh impersonating himself and then calling himself on it?
Why don't you find out from the pope?maybe you are worried about the real answer right?tdk? oh i mean bdk?
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July 2nd, 2008 at 10:44 pm 76
I still think Browntown has an unhealthy obsession with nuts.
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July 2nd, 2008 at 11:57 pm 77
This thread just goes to show how you have to be careful with sarcasm. No matter how dripping with sarcasm your posts are, no matter how over-the-top and outrageous they sound…they're still hard to distinguish from the authentic bullish posts these days.
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July 3rd, 2008 at 6:37 am 78
"The way I see it, with the great inventory available in these Western provinces and prices that are still very reasonable by international standards"
Just more proof at how little anyone outside of BC really cares about BC and more specifically Vancouver. Remember that BC real estate is 95% local and the 5% that isn't is drying up fast.
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July 3rd, 2008 at 7:01 am 79
These days, inflation is our major threat. In all the 3rd world countries, inflation rate is inching upwards and some speculate might become double digit come this summer or have already been. People need to understand that when easy credit is available, people's first instinct is to exploit it to make MORE MONEY. That's how you drive prices up, sans fundamentals, because easy credit itself is someone else's or fiat money.
Bernanke tried a passive deflationary tactic without having to raise rates and is having some success so far. He doesn't want a repeat of the 1970s and 1980s, but I think sooner of later he will have no choice, because while house prices are trending lower, it's not low enough to cause the economy to spiral into a deep recession. Which means, inflationary pressures will continue to increase. They need a deep recession to cleanse all the bad credit and re-price them to proper fundamentals before we proceed to the next boom phase. This hasn't happened yet.
Canada, too, is facing a similar prospect as the US albeit at a lag. While we are unlike the US in some things, I think we may end up with the similar outcome. Today, house prices are high not because of population, best place to live and great breathing air. They are propped up because, it is easy to borrow money and it is an acceptable form of investment practice. If you take out the borrow money part and expect all people to pay for their own homes with cash, see how many souls can actually do just that.
But remember, if we expect higher home prices, we also must expect higher inflation rate to come which means less discretionary spending and which can lead to more job losses, companies on the brink of bankruptcies and subdued wages because of the increasing labour market.
Now, it's becoming difficult to get higher paying jobs and it is these jobs that would ideally meet inflationary pressures. Traditionally auto jobs are threatened. How many people will be working for $8 to $10/hr jobs here if inflation keeps rising? How many companies will survive with the lack of these employees? If you raise salary and so will your prices, but we are all cutting back on other stuff to say money that goes towards higher gas prices and food. It's a vicious circle. If the Fed or BOC continually deny inflation is on the rise or is on its magical 2.2% rate, then eventually there will be very few people left wanting to spend anything more other than food, shelter and medicine. Then more companies will fail and more unemployment.
How do you propose people pay their mortgages if they are out of work? If they can't pay their mortgages, how do you expect home prices to continually rise? Do you expect lenders to lend money to these people and expect no financial compensation? Do you think these people are stupid?
When I see people justify higher home prices with immigration data and current prices, they are all looking at a rear view mirror. When the economy is receding, people will move to wherever job prospects are better. It's called the brain drain, or maybe people had forgotten that term from the mid to late 1990s. Who says people will stay here forever?
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July 3rd, 2008 at 8:15 am 80
"we produce things that the rest of the world needs to buy like… um….
Lululemon?"
Some Lululemon articles are produced in Vancouver, most are produced in; United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, India, Thailand and Indonesia.
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July 3rd, 2008 at 8:30 am 81
"Now, it’s becoming difficult to get higher paying jobs and it is these jobs that would ideally meet inflationary pressures"
It's extremely important to understand that while we see CPI inflation it does not mean that wage inflation is a sure thing and for house prices total wages is what matters. CPI inflation without wage inflation is devastating for house prices. Even if there were wage inflation, interest rates would be much higher and eroded affordability would destroy high prices faster than wages could be raised to compensate. Either road you take, the end result is devastation.
Save a massive sweet crude oil strike in Queen Elizabeth Park, nothing will save Vancouver house prices now.
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