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July 25th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
BDK
“That’s where Krissh/Satv/Time/Browntown bought, at TV TOWERS
I guess he wanted to make new homeless friends.”
He probably believes the old wisdom that you tend towards the same level of success as the company you keep. He wants to move up in the world, currently one of his best friends is being shipped of to Delta and the other is developing a bad case of cardboard rot after the incident with the sprinkler system.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Anon#41: Westwood Plateau in Coquitlam. It’s a veritable forest of realtor trees. Sorry, it’s hilly, but I was out there a couple months ago, and I’ve never seen anything like it before.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I want to hear all of the real estate boosters publicly pledge that the market is correct in whatever it does and there will be NO REAL ESTATE BAILOUT anywhere in Canada.
I’m glad to see responsible Americans getting angry about their bailout situation:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25836850/
July 25th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
“Yes, It’s all part of his plan, didn’t you know the best way to get cheap childcare is to “find a decent looking homeless person”
LOL. At least he didn’t suggest slavery as the way to afford child care and a house.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
That’s where Krissh/Satv/Time/Browntown bought, at TV TOWERS. I guess he wanted to make new homeless friends.
Yes, It’s all part of his plan, didn’t you know the best way to get cheap childcare is to “find a decent looking homeless person”
July 25th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Here is the reality. You have a beautiful little gem like Vancouver that the rest of the world doesn’t really know much about.
You all of a sudden expose it with winning the Olympic bid.
You now throw a dash of optimism and excitment and you get the boom we see or should say saw.
Prices start going through the roof…people want to buy here as we are very cheap compared to the rest of the world. Ok, granted, bargainville. In comes the foreign buyers.
Reality check: People that have been working and living here most of their lives get kicked in the ass as all those pennies you’ve been saving to buy your little shack with white picket fence has just got a price tag of that mansion you laught at owning in Richmond.
Enter the second reality check. I don’t know about the rest of you but my wages have not increased 300%..therefore I can’t affort the house and I refuse to pay 300-800k for those Shitshacks they call condos downtown. Gah, have people gone retarded paying those kind of prices for 900 Square foot bachlors?
It is a simple matter of math. If the market grows beyond the populas’ abitlity to sustain it it will crash down to affordable levels, otherwise you have people leaving the province and going to more affordable and better paying locations.
I am not saying you will see the homes drop to 300k like they use to be..but that shitbox that people are trying to sell for 800k…I think the wakeup call is gonna hit them so hard they are gonna go back in time.
I will be looking to buy in 2 years when the Condo and Housing market get into the real range..more like 450-550 range..not 700k-1M … right.
We now return you to your regularly schedule program……
July 25th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Scullboy
“you want to round up all the mentally ill, the drug addicts, and dispossessed, then give them WEAPONS AND TRAINING and turn ‘em loose?”
And don’t forget, in his world homosexuality is a mental illness.
Enjoy Cornwallis buddy! Write me a letter.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
People often say the reason why Vancouver real estate will always go up is eager immigrants moving here.
Well:
Immigrants turn backs on Vancouver
July 25th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Rob A
“my realator phoned me and told me about an offer on my appartment that was 60% below asking price.”
That was YOUR place?
July 25th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
”
I feel sorry for anybody who bought a condo near the intersection of Cambie and Robson. The guys who live in the Catholic Men’s Shelter have already taken over the new bus shelter and ledges in front of the new buildings.”
That’s where Krissh/Satv/Time/Browntown bought, at TV TOWERS
I guess he wanted to make new homeless friends.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Islander:
So let me get this straight…. you want to round up all the mentally ill, the drug addicts, and dispossessed, then give them WEAPONS AND TRAINING and turn ‘em loose?
BRILLIANT, I say! Have at ‘er! Instead of dodging people too zonked out to cause much harm , all those yuppie speculators who bought into the W development can dodge gunfire on the way back to their “luxury accommodations”. And let’s not forget, all those ex-vagrants and ex-soldiers would have much better aim.
I F**CKING LOVE IT! Let’s set ‘er up!
Your tax dollars will STILL go into paying these people. As employees of the government I believe they’d be entitled to…. oh let’s see, full medical and dental, a paycheque, a government pension.
By all means, let’s make vagrancy a crime too. f course since we’re all equal citizens under the law that means everyone has to carry papers. Even if you’re dressed well and have good teeth, you could still be a vagrant so if you get press ganged into the Navy or whatever, it’s all for the god of everyone else.
You remind me of an uncle of mine. He was forever complaining about high taxes going to education, until he had an autistic kid. Now he expects everyone to fund special education. He complained about taxes till he got cancer, then he complained about how underfunded health care is.
Why are so many “conservatives” greedy with their own money until they need some form of public assistance (education, health care, whatever) , then they complain bitterly.
Islander, you’re greedy, selfish short sighted and God love you, not very bright. Have a good weekend.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Which neighbourhood has the most “for sale” signs?
I might even bring an iced coffee and leisurely stroll and pleasure read the realtors signs. Maybe they should bling them up a bit, it could be like x mas.
Where are the sign forests? Not too hilly neighbourhood please.
Thanks!
July 25th, 2008 at 11:47 am
god … my realator phoned me and told me about an offer on my appartment that was 60% below asking price. I think people in Vancouver have gone insane
July 25th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Satv, Thumbs up 2. Where are you? Join the I-20K party!
July 25th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I feel sorry for anybody who bought a condo near the intersection of Cambie and Robson. The guys who live in the Catholic Men’s Shelter have already taken over the new bus shelter and ledges in front of the new buildings.
July 25th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Numbersman
Yeah, we’re 11% bigger than 10 years ago. The inventory is far more than 11% greater than it’s ever been before.
***BZZZT*** wrong answer!
July 25th, 2008 at 10:54 am
M- “Currently my model predicts 2324 sales by the end of the month, which is 4% less than last month, and down 40% YOY.”
The sales numbers compared to June don’t look that bad. Be prepared for uberspin: sales in the traditionally slow summer months ONLY fell 4% compared to June!!! If you go back to 1999 and 2000 you can see how much further sales have dropped in recent memory: roughly another 30% less than current expected July sales and that was a time when valuations were reasonable, even with higher interest rates.
Do we really have memories that short? Sales are still strong historically and there is nothing stopping them dropping even more, possibly to unprecedentedly low levels if prices do not quickly correct. I hear some calling for inventories above 30K for REBGV. If sales do dry up to levels seen last decade, it would not surprise me at all.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:42 am
29 and 30. Are you sure about that? Numbersman, do you have actually have numbers, or is this just a hunch?
When expressed as residents per listing, I’d hazard a guess that we are probably at historically high levels. On Pauls blog we had a discussion that noted that residents per listing in the lower mainland (1:85) is squarely in ths same zone as southern california and arizona. To me, this is not insignificant.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:40 am
The first person to be rounded up for five years should be Islander, he’s clearly a juvenile delinquent
July 25th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Ziggee, what makes you think that Rennie reads this blog?
July 25th, 2008 at 10:28 am
#29,
Very well said.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:19 am
The 20K figure is only important symbolically. The 20K figure is no where near as scary as previous highs when you take into effect how much larger the total inventory of units is. We are a much bigger city now and 20K is nowhere near as significant as it would’ve been 20yrs or even just 10 yrs ago.
July 25th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Ziggee
I suppose both sides can be considered speculators.
The difference is not in whether each group speculates or not.
The difference is that one group believes that property values will continue upwards forever without anything to support this hypothesis except for good feelings. The other group analyses empirical data using scientific methods and historical comparisons.
If I were to describe mutual fund managers in these terms who would you invest with? This is the question Rennie should answer, I think we can safely say he is not investing the bulk of his earnings where his mouth is, but as they say, “don’t shit where you eat”.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Bob Rennie:
I remember an article where you opined “who are the real speculators?”, the bears on the sidelines or the bulls on the flip. My question to you is, have you put your money where your mouth is? I.E. have YOU invested in the projects you market to the public?
July 25th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Sorry, ignore my previous. It was a while ago, and I forgot that I was specifically looking at the SFH numbers only. I can still add, my memory is just completely shot.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:24 am
M:
What?! Ok, I think I’d like to see those numbers, ‘cuz I must be reading them *drastically* wrong, or I’ve lost the ability to do basic addition.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:23 am
stagnate
It takes a while for psychology to turn. Most of the people who are buying now understand that the market is “correcting” but they believe it will be in the order of a 5-10% correction so if they can get a deal now they think it’s all good.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:22 am
it’s time we… started rounding up unproductive members of society.
Excellent idea! Shall we start with the “usual suspects”?
July 25th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Pope, when you joked about ‘the unique health hazards caused by granite..’ on this post:
http://vancouvercondo.info/200.....ntasy.html
Did you know that it was true? There’s a story in the NYT about radioactivity and radon gas coming from granite counter tops:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07.....anite.html
Bizarre!
July 25th, 2008 at 9:03 am
sales for july are higher than i would have predicted, given the bad news out there and the weather change this month. september is going to be a key month to watch.
July 25th, 2008 at 9:02 am
On the topic of hitting the historical high inventory of 20,000, let me be the first to say IT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME! Cause that number sure does look different to me!
July 25th, 2008 at 9:02 am
“theres nothing magical about the number 20,000.”
but much that is ominous.
I can understand being a bull during a euphoric bull market, but clinging to that position after the market turns is just delusional. There’s nothing more pitiable than someone lying to themselves. The party’s over, Jethro, time to pack it up and go home.
July 25th, 2008 at 8:56 am
[i]…theres nothing magical about the number 20,000…[/i]
Given the ratio of populations, the 10k number for FVRD is IMO much more significant. How the heck can a ‘berg like Mission have 500+ listings in just it’s core area?!
That, IMO, is where you’re more likely to find the real bargains…
July 25th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Dosh
“theres [sic] nothing magical about the number 20,000.”
Well someone woke up on the wrong side of the market this morning!
July 25th, 2008 at 8:43 am
US Foreclosures up 120% for second quarter.
739,714 foreclosure filings were recorded 2nd quarter
up 14% from the first quarter, 121% from the same period in 2007.
One of every 171 U.S. households received a filing, which include notices of default, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.
CNN
July 25th, 2008 at 8:42 am
BTW, other than for the purpose of laundering money, which undoubtedly is a big part of our economy, who in their right mind would buy a house NOW?
July 25th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Are real estate agents in your area getting desperate too?
In my neighborhood they randomly put “sold” stickers on For Sale signs, just to take them off a few days later later. It doesn’t seem to work though… as the for sale signs remain and actually grow in numbers…
July 25th, 2008 at 8:36 am
umdesch
i don’t think it will reach 1200. only 1 weekend to go and if it is really nice outside …people will head for the beach. We have little more than 1 month of summer left before the rain starts again
July 25th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Inventory, undesch4: I keep track of PaulB’s numbers in a spreadsheet. So far this month he has recorded 1799 sales, including both condos and houses.
Currently my model predicts 2324 sales by the end of the month, which is 4% less than last month, and down 40% YOY. And the inventory prediction: a whopping 9 months.
July 25th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Dosh, REBGV has never recorded 20K inventory EVER. We just set HISTORY.
July 25th, 2008 at 8:05 am
Anonymous,
835 actually sounds about right. I was adding up the numbers from Paul’s daily stats for the first couple of weeks this month, and did the math to come up with an estimated 1200 sales in the REBGV for the entire month, so this is in the ballpark, at least.
July 25th, 2008 at 7:52 am
theres nothing magical about the number 20,000.
July 25th, 2008 at 7:35 am
Islander:
So you’re saying that if we close the mental health care facilities we will have less mentally ill receiving the care they need to keep them off drugs and off the streets? Yup, that one worked!
July 25th, 2008 at 7:30 am
Inventory are you kidding? Only 835 sales? Where do you get that number from?
July 25th, 2008 at 7:25 am
islander, that is some might impressive logic you have there. How many cases of bud-lite did it take you to come to those hefty solutions?
Perhaps you could do humanity a favour by writing a book on how to live such an exemplary life. That might be the only way we see the light.
July 25th, 2008 at 1:29 am
The REBGV sales for July 08 is looking horrible right now.
July 2007 sales was 3659. As of today July 24 2008, sales
are only at 835.
FVREB July 2007 sales was 1700, today its at 398
With seven more days to go, I hope it improves, but I doubt it.
July 25th, 2008 at 12:21 am
You get more of what you subsidize.
Build more homeless shelters, get more homeless in your city.
As someone who is sick of homeless bums, crackheads, juvenile delinquents and other undesirables, it’s time we CLOSED homeless shelters, youth homes and heroin shooting galleries, made vagrancy a criminal code offence punishable by 5 years in jail or a year in the military, and started rounding up unproductive members of society.
July 24th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
Homelessness has nothing to do with the supply of or demand for housing. Shelter affordability for those on minimum wage (or anyone else) is no worse than it was decades ago.
People are homeless because they have personal problems which they cannot deal with such as mental illness or drug addiction, and the reason homelessness is up is because support for such people is inadequate.
July 24th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Is there a reason homelessness keeps increasing in Canada? Indeed the population is increasing but I don’t think it’s increasing at the rate of 19% in 5 years.
July 24th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000! Happy 20,000!