Friday Free-for-all! Holiday Edition
Not only have you made it to the end of another work week, but you’re looking at a long weekend! Here’s a round up of a few news stories I’ve noticed this week:
-July 2008: Sales down, listings up
-Whistler is running out of Gas
-New Pattullo Bridge will have toll
-Bad realtors getting spanked
-CMHC expands bond program for banks
-GDP drop ‘a bit of a shocker‘
-Greenspan: US on ‘brink of recession‘
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent long weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!
August 4th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
There is really no point in debating it.
I agree, hence my offer to provide proof.
I would be glad to meet anybody for some hand picked fresh Guatamalan coffee right here in Victoria.
August 4th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Vancouverbanker
"Mortgage brokers and real estate agents that do development are like drug dealers who do their own product."
Worse in a way. If things go to hell not only does the RE professional suffer on the job front but they have an over leveraged portfolio who's value is dropping like a stone.
Drugs are where it's at, you can always count on stable or increasing prices (take note Krrish, this could be your next great investment opportunity!).
August 4th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Dave
"Even Drachen believes me."
Yeah, I think Krrish/Thumbsup has got everyone here jittery with his constant handle switching and occasional conversations between handles. I propose to everyone here that we simply apply a modified Turing test in the future. ie. If you cannot definitively say that two handles belong to the same person they are for all intents and purposes two separate people. There is really no point in debating it.
August 4th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Dave 2, aka the source: "Now, with over 8 years of experience behind us, we’re sharing our stories and giving advice"
LOL. What advice? How to make money in a boom market? Because that's all you know. But you're about to get quite an education in bear markets, and the cost will make your student loan debt seem cheap in comparison.
Speaking of which: psych always attracts the flakes; no surprise considering how dysfunctionally 'the source' has represented himself here.
August 4th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Instead of taking Dave's word about that not being his website, which he entered on a post. Why don't we ask his wife if he's been trolling multiple bear blogs?
It's clearly him and he could be Krissh too
August 4th, 2008 at 9:33 am
I love those fuzzy statistics from Fuzzie Jurock:
"The "U.S. crash" is not countrywide. Out of 150 major markets, some 72 are still rising in value."
Of the 20 Case-Shiller markets, all 20 are down (YOY). But according to Fuzzie, half of all US markets are up!
Between 1988 and 1992, prices in San Diego dropped 35 per cent — since then, they rose by 410 per cent.
Back to Case-Shiller: San Diego actually bottomed in 1996 at 71.22. Today it sits at 178 (and falling) for an increase of 150%. I guess Fuzzie forgot to tell us his margin of error of 260%!
August 4th, 2008 at 7:31 am
VancouverBanker, I am not a mortgage broker, a real estate agent or a developer. I have nothing to do with Dave 2. Some of you people are too quick to jump to conclusions and believe conspiracies. Why not just take me for my word? Even Drachen believes me.
Again, I am willing to prove it. So far, no takers.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Oh god, I just read that Dave is a mortgage broker. Let me guess, you want to be Avtar Bains?
Mortgage brokers and real estate agents that do development are like drug dealers who do their own product.
What I don't understand, is how can mortgage brokers get sucked in? I can understand real estate agents b/c they start believing their own BS. But mortgage brokers should realize the market is turning when NO reputable bank will touch broker deals anymore.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
"In February, 2008 he switched to commercial real estate, and is now learning how to obtain financing for large apartment buildings, regional shopping centers, condo developments and more"
This actually made me laugh out loud. None of the big five banks are doing much financing for ANYBODY right now, especially not for amateurs who jumped on the bandwagon way too late. Dave, I suggest you try the credit unions first, although even they seem to be realising they're going to get murdered when the market turns.
Maybe some of the mezz debt lenders would be willing to take a chance on you, but they will charge you 18% interest and a 4% fee.
Btw, since you're doing a "land assembly", I would bet a lot that your property is out in the sticks. I'll give you some free advice: stop now before it's too late. I work with experienced developers every day who are panicking now because they can't sell their product. Sell your land as fast as you can to another sucked, then get yourself a job in something non-real estate, or at least make sure you're on salary and not commission.
August 3rd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Stop feeding the trolls everyone, it's ridiculous. Let's have some real discussions.
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Something similiar to zis my friends will happen here. I have no doubt…..
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/business/04lend…
August 3rd, 2008 at 8:26 pm
If you read Dave 2’s blog, he doesn’t say that he ever lived in Victoria.
"Dave has a Bacher of Arts with an Hounours Degree in Psychology from UVic"
Pretty hard to go to Uvic without living in Victoria
His race was in July.
No, he had a race in June.
August 3rd, 2008 at 9:58 am
From Bluesman's first link (Jurock for Calgary Herald). Ozzie says:
This would be due to increased failures of conditional offers of sale, inspection, and financing. I wonder how much the latter is impacting the success ratio, if at all. What this means is that, if I read these stats properly, the number of accepted (not completed) offers is only down around 20% from last year.
This makes sense — the real estate ladder is leveraged off FTBs and an increased number of failed offers is a corollary to falling sales. Why FTBs are not buying is another question entirely. Likely reasons are tighter lending, demand borrowed from past years, and speculation of future falling prices.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:47 am
Perhaps “The Source” is Julie and Dave is “Dave”. I mean, how many people named Dave have a keen interest in real estate investing, lived in Victoria and Burnaby, and both had races in June?
You are using selective reasoning. I am the one who told you I lived in Victoria and Burnaby. If you read Dave 2's blog, he doesn't say that he ever lived in Victoria. His race was in July. I am surprised you remembered my race, but it was in June, although I also had one in july but never posted about it.
Again, the offer to meet still stands. Or, I can send you an email of my drivers license, but will block out my last name and address (excluding the Victoria part).
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:51 am
Here are a couple of interesting links I found over at Alberta Bubble Blog. Hat tip to Brent over there.
http://tinyurl.com/6mxk64
http://tinyurl.com/6jmfue
August 3rd, 2008 at 4:56 am
Dave can't see the forrest for the trees.
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:43 am
About Julie Broad and Dave Peniuk
In our first five years as rookie real estate investors, we purchased eleven residential investment properties, dealt with a property manager on trial for murder, tenants with knives, fire code inspections leading to court appearances and more. Now, with over 8 years of experience behind us, we're sharing our stories and giving advice to help other rookie investors avoid the mistakes we've made, while enjoying the benefits a good real estate portfolio offers.
Dave and Julie
Julie grew up in a house attached to a small 20 room motel in Bassano, Alberta. Her family has been self-employed and involved in real estate in varying degrees throughout her life, so her interest in all things brick and beam was natural. From land to strip malls to apartment buildings, her family has been involved in many kinds of real estate ownership. Julie furthered her familial real estate experience by completing a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Calgary and obtaining an MBA in Real Estate and Finance from the Schulich School of Business at York University. Since then, Julie's spent five years working in the commercial real estate industry learning all about the Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver markets. Julie currently lives in Burnaby, BC with Dave and their dog Bram.
Dave grew up in Nanaimo, BC with a fix-it and flip-it real estate family. He bought his first rental property with his Mom over 16 years ago and then reignited his investing once he met Julie 8 years ago. Dave is definitely the more adventurous investor of the two, and plans to tackle development in the near future as he and one partner have begun assembling land for one project. Dave has a Bacher of Arts with an Hounours Degree in Psychology from UVic, as well as a Master of Arts Degree in Applied Social Psychology from the Univesity of Saskatchewan. In 2006, Dave left his job in consumer research and became a residential mortgage broker. In February, 2008 he switched to commercial real estate, and is now learning how to obtain financing for large apartment buildings, regional shopping centers, condo developments and more. Dave currently lives in Burnaby, BC with Julie and their dog Bram
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:38 am
So they are having trouble selling 1 bedroom Manhatten units for $600k?
So what does that mean in Vancouver where the rent is about 40% of Manhatten and costs more?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/realestate/03co…
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:33 am
One of yesterdays trolls even referenced the trolls?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/magazine/03trol…
There's also an article in todays NY Times about a glut of 1 bedrooms in Manhatten, which is in a comparable city in New York, New York.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:37 pm
Also, why did the “about us” on the Dave & Julie page suddenly change today?
Scratch that, I mixed up the blog and the website. So this Dave is a mortgage broker? Isn't that what dev/null independently figured out that the "other" Dave was? Very coincidental.
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:14 pm
You’re mixing up Dave and The Source. That is The Source’s blog (unless you are proposing that they are the same person).
Perhaps "The Source" is Julie and Dave is "Dave". I mean, how many people named Dave have a keen interest in real estate investing, lived in Victoria and Burnaby, and both had races in June? Also, why did the "about us" on the Dave & Julie page suddenly change today?
These are the Daves I know, I know These are the Daves I know These are the Daves I know, I know These are the Daves I know.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:03 pm
I see that some people have been talking about market rents so I would like to post a question. I recently moved to Richmond; I rent the top floor of a duplex near Steveston Village. It has three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a large deck and a huge (i.e. double lot) backyad. I am presently paying $1300 for it. Would you say that this is close to market rents in Metro Vancouver? Thanks!
August 2nd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Dave
"Just because I am not as bearish as many folks here does not make me a bull."
No that's true. But your conclusions were reached on equally fallacious reasoning as bulls use so you get lumped in with them.
For what it's worth however I don't think you're thumbs or the source.
Thumbsup doesn't have any concept of logic or proper argument and he's functionally illiterate.
The source is literate and has an extremely weak grasp of logic but no concept of proper argument.
Dave is literate has a good grasp on proper argument but instead of debating in good faith constantly uses subversive tricks to get his point across instead of assembling a proper argument. I only say he has a good grasp because he breaks the rules so consistently I find it highly unlikely that he's unaware of them. Grasp of logic is questionable, entirely depends on how much of his rhetoric he actually believes.
August 2nd, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Could someone please call the grownups back into the room?
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Dave: "Different" isn't the word!
Now go to bed!
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:56 pm
I am more than willing to meet one of you for coffee to show that I am a different Dave. Again, I live in Victoria.
Enough with the conspiracies already. It gave me a good laugh, but enough is enough.
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:52 pm
blueskies
"your version of the transpired events has a little “embellishment” to it…. the way i saw it was drachen wiped up the sidewalk with you….."
In his world there's a mysterious SFU study that nobody's heard of but him and his invisible friend who told him about it, real estate CAN appreciate indefinitely and currently Vancouver real estate is undervalued.
What makes you think he has any sense of reality left?