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August 2nd, 2008 at 7:41 pm
then why are you picking the losing side of the bear/bull debate…
you know that eventually you will have your ass handed to you on a platter thus losing any shred of “credibility” you may have ever had…..
Just because I am not as bearish as many folks here does not make me a bull.
I have been consistently calling for a 5% price decline this Fall. I don’t believe prices will fall more than 10%. Nor do I believe they will rise more than 5 to 10% year over year. Basically, I am short term negative (6 to 12 months), medium term neutral (1 to 3 years) and long term bullish (over another decade).
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:40 pm
We know who you are, Dave. Now go to bed!
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Yes, as well, I would like the regulars to re-read the “you can’t paint a stock” quote. Mmkay? Quote #123. Class dismissed.
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:31 pm
but credibility is an important thing to me.
then why are you picking the losing side of the bear/bull debate…
you know that eventually you will have your ass handed to you on a platter thus losing any shred of “credibility” you may have ever had…..
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
I strongly suggest that the regulars here should re-read post #101.
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:14 pm
You don’t know who I am. I don’t live in Burnaby like the other Dave (although I used to). I live in Victoria. Want me to take a picture of something here to prove it, with a specified time and date?
August 2nd, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Dave: “minds”???? and why is it so important for you to remain “anonymous”. We all know who you are…..
August 2nd, 2008 at 6:39 pm
source:
your version of the transpired events has a little “embellishment” to it…. the way i saw it was drachen wiped up the sidewalk with you…..
August 2nd, 2008 at 6:18 pm
I am not posting under multiple aliases. I have never heard of the other Dave. I doubt anything I say will change many minds. Maybe it doesn’t matter, but credibility is an important thing to me. If anybody can think of an anonymous way for me to prove it, I would be more than happy to.
August 2nd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
This is too funny, I come back 24 hours later and bears are still talking about “the source”. Maybe i should register my handle so others don’t borrow it! It’s true, provoking Drachen is as predictable as when a fat kid spots a smartie. He does have some energy though, no matter how many times he was beat up yesterday he would stagger for awhile and then come back for more punishment. I have to go now so won’t be able to reply anymore. Have a good evening.
August 2nd, 2008 at 4:55 pm
“Your karma will come back to you and you will die of pancreatic cancer”
A close friend of mine just died of pancreatic cancer. He was a good man. Dave may have issues but that’s uncalled for dude.
August 2nd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Funny coincidence that source accidentally entered his website and it’s Dave.
Dave you have registered your name on this site, stop trying to be smart and a retard at the same time.
Your karma will come back to you and you will die of pancreatic cancer
August 2nd, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Dave, the source and Krissh are all the same.
hick named dave and his hick wife.
Krissh retarded thread jacking doesn’t appear there but we know the source has time to clog up multiple bear blogs at once.
Hmmm
That would be a no. I am not thesource nor am I Krissh.
Believe it or not, Dave is a common name.
August 2nd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Dave has a Bacher of Arts
Guys, Dave has a “Bacher of Arts” he knows what he’s talking about OK? Something tells me we’ll see these two bozos on a local news show in a year or two when their projects go into receivership and they’re charged with fraud.
August 2nd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Betamax you’re right.
Right now the owners of units in new building are pressuring the property managers to charge more but are being told to be realistic. In some cases the owners decide they can do it themselves and hit Craigslist for example $1500 one bedrooms in Richmond! and $1850 one bedrooms downtown.
Even then the owners are losing $1500+ per month, if they get their inflated price. More often than not they let it sit for a few months before wising up and asking market rents.
The Rental Market is not tight downtown despite what anyone tells you. You can call any of the property managers in the classifieds and ask to see a suite, apply and have it by the end of this afternoon.
August 2nd, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Of course, a 2-3% drop in rent is quite significant when you consider inflation. More bleeding for the accidental landlords.
August 2nd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
In many other markets with similar overbuilding to ours (Miami, parts of California) rents actually dropped significantly from the beginning of the real estate crash.
At the very beginning of the housing downturn in the US, when sales slowed but prices still rose, rents were still rising — just like here.
Once the housing market downturn hit full swing, however, the subsequent slowdown in the general economy resulted in substantially lower rents. That slowdown is becoming a long-term recession, which will further depress rents.
Same thing will happen here.
August 2nd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
engergie
I feel it will drop slightly (< 5%) others feel it will rise slightly. My opinion is based on what cities with similar bubble patterns to Vancouver in the US are experiencing (a 2-3% drop in rents).
August 2nd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Dave, the source and Krissh are all the same.
hick named dave and his hick wife.
Krissh retarded thread jacking doesn’t appear there but we know the source has time to clog up multiple bear blogs at once.
Hmmm
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
By the way, with the RE come crashing down, how do you guys see the rental market in the near future?
August 2nd, 2008 at 11:27 am
19,534 Aug 1
20,066 July 31
Listing out of red light area but smart buyers and fool sellers will be countinue right after the break…..
“Main while rental rocket heading towards westside $3000 / 2br – Townhouse – Fairview Slopes (Vancouver Westside)”-catch the best action on vancouver condo-will be countinue……..
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:22 am
punface
In many other markets with similar overbuilding to ours (Miami, parts of California) rents actually dropped significantly from the beginning of the real estate crash. Desperate owners are just trying to get anything they can out of the property and everyone discovers that there are more empty units than anyone realized.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:17 am
BDK and snark
You’re mixing up Dave and The Source. That is The Source’s blog (unless you are proposing that they are the same person).
August 2nd, 2008 at 8:45 am
Dave – even though I agree with you about rents going up, at the end of the day it doesn’t matter.
Fundamentals are so out of wack that rents would have to nearly double before any place I’ve looked at would make sense.
I believe rents are increasing – that’s why I’m a -25% bear.
Others believe rents are static and will stay so – they tend to be -50% bears.
But if you are arguing that prices will stagnate or increase … and assuming you believe there is some relationship in the long-run between rents and prices … then you must believe rents are going to double. And I can’t agree with you there!
August 2nd, 2008 at 6:40 am
Affordability in itself doesn’t make prices come down.
bring the price down and you will have better affordability….
prices have to come down
there are no other alternatives
August 2nd, 2008 at 12:28 am
Aside from “the source”‘s jackass/troll comments, I must say tonight’s numbers from Paul B are quite amazing. I see ~ 130 expiries (I am definitely not an accountant) at month end. I am super interested to see how many of those in this market of flux are pulling out to drop their prices, and how many are pulling out because the September market will “rebound for sure” and we will list then at and all will be good. I may or may not know someone in the second scenario, and I bet that there are at least 4,999 other people thinking the same thing, whether or not their houses are on the market….
Wow!, I thing that’s my longest post ever on VHB’s Rob’s, Mohican’s (are you really a Mohican) and RET’s blogs.
August 2nd, 2008 at 12:27 am
At first I thought this summer doldrums piece was made up, but it is not! Here is the actual link: The Harris Real Estate Group: Don’t Mistake the Summer Doldrums…
August 1st, 2008 at 11:44 pm
Wow! You guys are going off tonight! Sucks I’m a slow reader… there goes my Friday night! Don’t judge me.
Here’s the latest installment. I call this piece – Vancouver: The Manhattan of the Pacific Northwest
———————-
Don’t Mistake the Summer Doldrums…
Every year around this time, the market slows to a crawl. The birds are quiet, the heat is on and quite frankly, people have better things to do than buy real estate. (which makes it a great time to buy by the way, since you’ll be the only game in town!)
Every year the numbers for August and July show a slowdown. This year will be no different. Bloggers all over the web use this as ammo for their “end-of-the-world as we know it” blogs. But don’t buy it.
Yes, the market is slowing in a way that’s not related to the summer, because of the US Credit Crunch, inflation and peak oil BUT: That doesn’t mean we’re going to fall like a house of cards. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Vancouver has one of the healthiest markets in the world. Yes, the world. Net-immigration, strong economy, lots of jobs, great weather, Olympic spending by Municipal, Provincial and Federal Governments and quite frankly, value. Affordability is an definitely an issue, but outlying areas still represent great value for your dollar. Yes, not everyone can afford to live in downtown Vancouver, but not everyone can afford to live in Manhattan either. Affordability in itself doesn’t make prices come down.
You can’t paint a stock, or rent out a bond. You can’t refinance a T-Bill, nor can you renovate your RRSP. Real estate is the only investment you can improve with your own hard work and gumption. Home owners have 73% higher net worth than renters and you’ll always need a roof over your head. (As will everybody else; watch those rents rise over the next 6 months!) I for one continue to find great deals for my clients that represent strong long term investments. The underlying market shifts almost daily, but real estate remains one of the most secure places to invest long term.
We won’t know the top or the bottom until a year after the fact, so stop trying to time the market and get in the game!
Thanks for reading, and I welcome your comments, even the nasty ones…
The Harris Real Estate Group
————————
Now listen you “End-of-the-World-As-We-Know-It Bloggers”… you know who you are! You can’t paint a stock! OKAY?! THE DEBATE IS OVER! Shut the blog down, no need for this all to continue. It’s settled! You can’t renovate your RRSP or PAINT YOUR STOCKS! Buy now or die.
Have a great long weekend y’all!
August 1st, 2008 at 10:43 pm
this is Dave’s blog:
http://revnyou.wordpress.com/
August 1st, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Looks like “Dave” has his own blog but he tries to be coherent.
Krissh, this is a blog for you!
Go clog it up
August 1st, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Hey Dave, I liked your article on Four Reasons to Sell your Property at a loss. I thought this tip was very apt:
You’ve got some interesting articles on that site of yours.
August 1st, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Wow! It’s busy in here today! For those of you calculating numbers on houses, I’d like to see the investment case for MLS V726307, asking only $450,000.
Long Term tenants $945./month, unaware of sale, great for investment future develop I-2 zoning.
You could be a long term investor with this one… a really really looong term investor.
August 1st, 2008 at 9:48 pm
I count nine listings on Riverbend Dr. in Coquitlam. Near new houses for about $500,000 and they still can’t sell. Mind you, I drove through there once and the lots were so small, townhouses would have been more appropriate (less wasted space). I wouldn’t even want to rent there as its not within a short walk to anything.
August 1st, 2008 at 8:18 pm
too good to pass up!
http://tinyurl.com/trustmeimyourkid
Climate Cops, which encourages children to monitor and report on their domestic energy crimes to their classrooms.
August 1st, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Dave
“Drachen, rents have been going up across the board and at rates above inflation. I happen to believe this will continue.”
As I’ve said to you before, it’s better to bring real facts to an argument than made up ones. Go look at a graph. Then come back and say that again.
“Yes, I am sure most people would rather live in a 40 year old building with a pink bathtub and shag carpet rather than live in a high end modern condo. LOL”
Yes, I am sure most people would rather have a landlord who doesn’t know the rules, is likely to try to sell the place from under them and is way too emotionally attached to the property over the peace of living some place where you never even see the landlord unless your rent is over a week late or something needs fixing.
There are arguments for both sides. But as usual you don’t even have black and white vision. Just one colour for you! Anything that doesn’t fit your world view is wrong and should be ignored!
August 1st, 2008 at 7:33 pm
As an aside does anyone else find it interesting how the bulls are crawling out of the woodwork now that the market is finally showing clear signs that it’s breaking under the strain?
August 1st, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Drachen, rents have been going up across the board and at rates above inflation. I happen to believe this will continue.
Who cares if the vacancy rate is 0.5% or 1.0%? It’s low no matter how you want to measure it.
Yes, I am sure most people would rather live in a 40 year old building with a pink bathtub and shag carpet rather than live in a high end modern condo. LOL
August 1st, 2008 at 7:21 pm
the source
Ahh, well I see from your website you have no reason at all to be biased in your opinions.
Enjoy bankruptcy dude. Think of it as a zen-like experience where you can get back to the essentials of life and forget about the consumer driven world we live in.
August 1st, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Punface
“I think bears tend to be guilty of believing this data when it claims that rents have not risen, and bulls tend to be guilty of believing this data when it claims the vacancy rate is 0%.”
But there’s actually solid logic behind the bear side. If there were a genuine upwards pressure on rents then it would be a Vancouver wide phenomenon and all rentals including the ones studied would rise. However most tenants (this is speculation but I believe it’s accurate) would prefer to live in managed property rather than rent from the owner and managed properties are generally run in a more businesslike fashion so they’re more likely to be occupied than condos and the like, thus skewing the vacancy rate.
August 1st, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Hah – TV Towers. When I first saw the renderings of TV Towers on their website, I thought that they were going to be two of the most awful buildings in the Vancouver skyline. However, I went by there yesterday and so far they don’t look nearly as bad as the nearby Spectrum towers do.
I’d consider paying $350/sqft for a unit in there when the time comes.
August 1st, 2008 at 6:27 pm
right,
the source signs off and Krissh pops right up.
hmmmmmmmm
The market is going to go down for decades and TV Towers will become a homeless shelter for all the junkies
August 1st, 2008 at 6:11 pm
“4.Prices will go down for decades to come”
From your account to pay increased rent!$3400 / 2br – EXECUTIVE 2 BR SUITE in UBC Chancellors Place (UBC)PostingID: 778516148.
best ever eclipse,best real estate anywhere,month over month year over year,decades after decades ladies and gentlemens vancouver british columbia,“the best place on earth” http://www.istockphoto.com/fil.....id=3725499
MIND IT.
August 1st, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Scullboy, i like the idea that someone would pay me for this but unfortunately no. It sure seems like a game, i agree. I will sign off now, otherwise this will go on all night. Thanks to all those who corresponded, have a good weekend.
August 1st, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Regarding the rental data that is based only on owners with multiple units, I think bears tend to be guilty of believing this data when it claims that rents have not risen, and bulls tend to be guilty of believing this data when it claims the vacancy rate is 0%. It’s just people believing what they want to believe.
August 1st, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Is it me, or does anyone else have the impression that the people who paid others to stand in line at condo pre-openings may be paying people to post on blogs?
The source: I don’t know what your game is, but you certainly seem to be playing one.
August 1st, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Prices will keep going up
http://www.revnyou.com/About_Us.html
(my site)
August 1st, 2008 at 5:47 pm
my bad I got the two trolls names mixed up
August 1st, 2008 at 5:45 pm
the source cites an SFU study and then states no one cares what an SFU professor thinks?
I guess since I’m not getting the joke he’s a troll and I didn’t get it until now.
August 1st, 2008 at 5:45 pm
the source:
did i say i was a professor? read my posts. in any event, i don’t share my opinions because they’re worth no more than yours.
and yes, i’m working while i do this … i have time to kill while simulations run.
August 1st, 2008 at 5:43 pm
The trolls employed what the M.I.T. professor Judith Donath calls a “pseudo-naïve” tactic, asking stupid questions and seeing who would rise to the bait. The game was to find out who would see through this stereotypical newbie behavior, and who would fall for it. As one guide to trolldom puts it, “If you don’t fall for the joke, you get to be in on it.”