Markets change
Yes, markets change and so do ‘expert opinions’. And what a difference just a few days can make! Housing markets change at such a glacial pace that they miss out on the exciting daily ups and downs of the stock market, but the flip side is that once they start to slide it can take years for them to hit bottom. You don’t have to look further than our closest neighbor to the south to see an example of this slow downward slide.
This gradual change makes it all the more remarkable that a local housing market ‘expert’ would be singing two different songs within the space of just a few days. Thanks goes to Condohype for pointing the evolving marketview of Cameron Muir:
- “There is no indication, at this point, of any kind of substantial decline in prices,” Cameron Muir, Friday, July 11 2008
- “It is perfectly reasonable to expect home prices will stay fairly flat or even decline a couple of per cent a year until affordability picks up.” Cameron Muir, Tuesday, July 15 2008
Skeptics take heart, because I already know what you’re thinking - its the wonders of vague wording: a couple of per cent does not equal a ’substantial decline’, so this is not a reversal. And maybe you’re right, except there’s this small point: how many years do we have to suffer declines of ‘a couple percent’ until ‘affordability picks up’? Particularly with a global economic slowdown, a local economy coming off a boom and new mortgage rules that require more fiscal responsibility from buyers? Would a sharp shock to the market that quickly restores ‘affordability’ be a worse scenario than 10 years of slow equity leakage?
In June the REBGV benchmark price for a house dropped by about $5500 to $765,654. From that starting point a drop of just ‘a couple percent’ is a loss of more than $15,000 a year. Of course now that these predictions appear to be changing on a weekly or even daily basis, perhaps we’ll be hearing about the next leg up soon.
Thanks again to Condohype for the tippage.
Loading …
July 16th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Greater Vancouver average home prices
$611,613 june 2008
$564,702 june 2007
8.3% up yoy
Condo hype says”is a loss of more than $15,000 a year.”- Thanks goes to Condohype for pointing the evolving marketview of Cameron Muir.”-Condohype is a joke.
British Columbia
$463,458 june 2008
$445,881 june 2007
Hey condo hype are you serious?do you even know how to do analysis?Vancouver Real Estate is a word of Cameron Muir:
if you’re waiting to pick up a Vancouver home at rock-bottom prices, you’ll be disappointed. “
July 16th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
This big bubble has really changed the landscape of Vancouver by mixing up the rich and the poor. It’s done wonders for areas like Main street, which is now full of restaurants and hip boutiques.
When we slide back down the other side of the bubble, what does it mean for “up and coming” neighbourhoods? Will people continue to love them and just buy bigger newer houses, or will they abandon the east side so their children can go to so-called “good” schools?
I know a couple who were big East Van fans until their kids were approaching school age, then they hightailed it off to North Vancouver.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
True. Then I should rent!
July 16th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
You’re missing any reasonable answers for your poll, how about:
“Affordable (at the individual or family level) is no more than 40% of gross income spent on housing.”
“Affordable housing (at the regional level) means that a median income family can purchase median housing within a median commute distance, spending 40% or less of their income.”
July 16th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
I should clarify, I wrote the copy, Condohype pointed out the quotes. If you have a problem with someones logic it is mine. That said I still can’t figure out what your point is so I’ll just post a quote from 1981:
Just so you know how accurate past predictions in the local media have been, the market crashed by about 50% over the following year.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Well of course you will be. The phrasing of this sentiment is all wrong. I am looking to pick up housing at 1/2 - 1/3 of current prices. This does not reflect ‘rock bottom’ pricing, I’m not talking about getting some big deal on a house. I just want to pay what it’s actually worth.
He’s twisting the concept that housing will fall by a significant amount by using loaded language. Classic straw man argument.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Now, let me ask you, do you even know how to do analysis? Have you talked to any RE agents about how quiet the market has been lately?
July 16th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Why i need to talk to realtors don’t you read the article from their supremo based on the performance of real estate and the economy of british columbia but just for your satisfaction realtor don’t have any other answer other than a same news letters issued from rebgv and british columbia.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Beyond that you will have to make significant sacrifices and I’m not talking about bringing your lunch or drinking McDo coffee, more like no car, no kid lifestyle.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
So… have you applied the logic in your OP to the 2006 US RE market yet?
July 16th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
The pope,
In 1981 prices were not totally adjusted for inflation but in 2007 it’s preety much adjusted neck to neck.
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/flash … prices.swf
The Pope Muir has modren media and source available to him those slides posted by “Dave”-Time and demographia has changed neck to neck since 1982,Income has changed demand for luxury has changed boomers also like their life in action not in the yard,retiring age has been changed from 65-71 means we are very much dependent on immigration and migration when most of people want pizza and grocery to be deliver to their doors this world is definitely getting expensive that’s why international monetary policy back up the housing prices.damn construction cost where developers are runing away from uncomplete projects ho,ho.
These little discounts we are experiancing these days is a result of the economy performance of Ontario and across the border shopping from british columbians.
Economy pace in british columbia is expected to pick up later this year when all our forest industry(lumber products)are excpected to stand on its own feet sure it can’t happen over night but sitting out fellas are not willing to wait too long while sales in usa is also picking up.why people need to follow them on two year lag?.just do it!!!!!now or never
July 16th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j … ebt116.xml
July 16th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
“In 1981 prices were not totally adjusted for inflation but in 2007 it’s preety much adjusted neck to neck.”
Are you kidding me, are you seriously such a moron? That graph shows historic prices in real and inflation adjusted dollars. The reason the two are closing the gap over the years is that the measurement is in today’s dollars. You really don’t understand any of this stuff do you?
July 16th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
It whizzes right over his head like a lefthanded fastball.
He calls himself Thums/time/satv/krissh/informer/browntown but it’s clearly the same idiot.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Muir doesn’t say it’s what he thinks, but rather that it’s a reasonable thing to expect; he can thus avoid responsibility for such public statements later, when prices crash.
…stay fairly flat or even decline a couple of per cent a year until affordability picks up.”
With the current disconnect between prices and wages, how many years will that take? Fifteen, like Japan? Twenty?
July 16th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
You clearly have a more optimistic view than me on the prevalence of idiots. I think there’s more than enough to go around without multiple persona being required.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
sure we can read as you said and you can also read prices paid for according to supportive and increased income etc.
“It whizzes right over his head like a lefthanded fastballer”
I am sure the bouncer did not miss your helmet my math teacher try to understand the issue or give away your catch on off slip or silly point then go back to pavalion.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P116257.asp
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co … 02255.html
Oct. 27, 2005–The much ballyhooed housing bubble isn’t happening Las Vegas, a real estate consultant said Tuesday.
At a housing seminar at the Four Seasons, Tim Sullivan, principal of San Diego-based Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors, said a housing bubble would defy all fundamentals of the local market.
“The market’s not going to hell in a hand basket, and our safety net is California,” he said.
Sullivan said Las Vegas can’t have a housing bubble with this kind of job growth and in-migration and when land is hard to find and there’s not much housing inventory. Any talk of a housing bubble is probably coming from outside the market, he said.
“My fear is particularly Wall Street-related,” Sullivan said. “Wall Street tends to look at markets as black and white. This is not a market where we’ll see 50 percent appreciation, but there’s still going to be appreciation.”
The median price of a new home in Las Vegas, including condo conversions, was $297,555 in September, an increase of $18,631, or 6.7 percent, from the same month a year ago, Home Builders Research President Dennis Smith said. Median prices for existing homes rose 14 percent to $285,000.
Las Vegas is still a “mecca” for Californians in search of a good deal on a home, Sullivan said. But high-density land play in suburban markets has changed, he added, especially after the frenzy over mid- and high-rise condominium projects.
“It’s softened, maybe not softened, but it’s back to normal,” he said.
With billions of dollars of development going into the Strip resort corridor and the South Coast casino under construction on the south Strip, the price of land in those areas may be justifiable, Sullivan said. It’s much tougher to convince developers about projects in the suburban market, he added.
“My thought is if we had the Curve developed, it would be highly successful,” he said of the planned mixed-use development at the Las Vegas Beltway and Durango Drive. “But they’ve got to prove it. Right now, there’s a lot more hype than reality.”
Development is moving away from classic suburban markets because of land availability and back to downtown cores where density is higher, Sullivan said.
Timothy McPeak, who attended Sullivan’s seminar on behalf of Babcock & Brown investment advisory firm in San Francisco, said he got the message that the sky isn’t falling.
“It’s just a return to normal conditions. We’ll see what happens. It’s market by market. Where I live, it’s just crazy,” he said.
Smith reported that new-home building permits slipped to 2,121 in September, down by more than 1,000 from the previous month.
“Should we be concerned? Is some of the air being released from that bubble we keep reading and hearing about in the media?” he said.
Rising mortgage rates and declining consumer confidence will take out some of the investor buyers, Smith said.
“We don’t think many of the home equity investors have planned or sufficiently budgeted for the rise in their payments if they are interest-only, or if the payments are based on prime rate changes,” he said. “If payments for investments are made from equity lines of credit, in many instances, these payments may have doubled.”
July 16th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
“Did our bubble begin in 2002 or in 1989?”
1987, I’ve said it many times before. If we want to know where prices will hit on the road to fundamentals we should adjust 1987 prices for inflation. As far as I can figure that’s the last time when prices were in line with the multiple fundamental measurements available (though there is about a 10% variation depending on your method).
July 16th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
The business case for holding these was valid while capital appreciation was offseting the negative cash flow. However, now that the head cheerleader (i.e. Cameron Muir) has admitted to flat or declining prices - this business case is blown. Obviously, this is a maor contributer to the dramatic rise in inventories, however, I wonder if there is a much larger group of RE investors still in denial as to the current market reality?
July 16th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Just look above there is one idiot ,with multiple personalities, who still thinks that prices should be higher than New York and that there’s more high paying jobs and head offices here and that Vancouver is differet than the rest of the world.
That or he’s just having fun pretending he thinks the market is good? Hard to know most of his rambling messages don’t make any sense.
July 16th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
If you ever get through the Emperors New Clothes or when you turn 13 you should start reading Mordecai Richelors “Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz”
“Krissh?browntown/Thums soon believes land ownership to be life’s ultimate goal and the means by which a man is made.”
But let’s stay on topic here, the market is doomed and the less intelligent bulls who couldn’t understand supply and demand and greedily held on are going to lose money for decades to come!
forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=48
July 16th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
You missed the obvious reason - lower interest rates. Interest rates were in double digits through the 80’s, but about the same as today in the late 90’s.
RE bear markets bottom out at rent equivalence, and the rent equivalent price is inversely proportional to interest rates.
If interest rates creep back up to 80’s levels, real prices will return to 80’s levels as well.
July 16th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Do you know how hard it is to convince someone that the place they live and work is the best place on earth? It’s no wonder a few still don’t believe this ultimate truth.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
1. If you’re sincere, get some help. You’re an incompetent idiot making a fool of yourself.
2. If you’re just joking around, get some help — nobody with a healthy mind carries on with a ‘joke’ as long as you have — you’re a troubled individual.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
I think it is like the case of the frog in the boiling water. If you raise the temperature gradually, it will happily allow you to turn it into stew, but if you crank the heat up too fast it will jump out (this is a myth BTW).
If Cam/Chipman/Pastrick et al change their tune very gradually, we won’t tar and feather them. Or so the thinking goes. What really irks me is when they change their tune but claim to have thought so all along.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Not only that, but at current rate of inflation, it will take decades to catch up. Unlike the early 80’s where your real payments dropped like a rock, and nominal rents skyrocketed.
There will be tough times ahead for intransigent buyers and investors who refused to listen to reason. Can’t say I didn’t warn them.
July 16th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
The key to understanding his mentality is to understand his education level. He’s obviously not schooled at all in basic mathematics or economics. He believes psychology drives the market. Let’s face it, in a lot of ways the recent market has been driven by psychology and greed.
What he fails to understand is that in the long term, psychology is trumped by math.
Krrish thinks if he can just stay on blogs like this one and flail around like a retarded clown, his voice will somehow convince people who are on the fence, and somehow the party will never end. HOw he can believe that is a bit of a mystery but let’s face it, there are a lot of retarded clowns flailing around Vancouver. Most of them speak ENglish better, and are better able to construct a rational thought but their reasoning is essentially the same.
Krrish buddy, you’re a warehouse worker. You got lucky somehow and stumbled into a property, apparently. You’d be extremely wise to sell… immediately. However that requires a level of rational thought of which you’ve demonstrated you are entirely incapable.
You can flail around as much as you like. Math is trumping psychology, as it must. Your “asset” is l losing value each day you hold on to it. You will never recover from this loss, and your son will end up paying for your foolishness.
And honestly, knowing your son will curse his father’s foolish choice makes putting up with your antics completely worthwhile.
ooooo!
On an unrelated note, I see debt consolidation ads now that include debt incurred from leaky condos.
You won’t see THAT anywhere else in Canada. It really is different here!
July 16th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Where is your rational thought?do you have any opinion to change the average prices in #1 that shows gain not lose of $15k.?
Do you have any opinion to change the acceleration of 81,82, compare to last couple of year look at the graph #11 and tell us?
Do you have any opinion to change the discription of the graph at #20?.
Read,What ever your company pay you for your work housing cost is included in your pay if you did not buy any thing but sold your property back in 2001 then you don’t need to cry on your mistake please take exit no 11(legs).
July 16th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Your Money Matters section … full front page + full page 3
“How To Sell A House, When You Have To Sell It Now.” … not exactly the sub prime demographic readership …
But it’s different here
July 16th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
July 16th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Just drop the price, stupid.
July 17th, 2008 at 12:53 am
July 17th, 2008 at 12:59 am
He’s been off his meds for a long, long, long time.
July 17th, 2008 at 1:02 am
Too many immigrants coming?
Not enough condo?
Well, at least you got the overall concept of supply and demand right. But your made-up facts don’t reflect reality: there aren’t too many immigrants coming, and there are more than enough condos. So, that means “CRASH!” with a lot of weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth.
July 17th, 2008 at 1:03 am
He’s a troubled individual who has become addicted to a stupid little game he’s been playing for almost two years. He needs help.
July 17th, 2008 at 1:35 am
You don’t know any thing about economy,real estate,math,and science so stop complaining this is mature subject matters. i am not your teacher just a bloggers poster it could be possible you are unable to grasp the message but the answer is in top few lines,anyway thanks for your rant next time “posters discretion is adviced” good advice is take some lesson regarding those said subjects.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:04 am
July 17th, 2008 at 7:15 am
THE RULES HAVE CHANGED
Yesterday, the Canadian government took away the possibility of home ownership for thousands of Canadians by scrapping the 40 year mortgage and eliminating zero-down mortgage products. What is seen by many as a harbinger of doom and gloom in the market, I see it as a bold yet necessary move by the government to avoid a US style freefall free-for-all.
Keep this in mind:
On a 200k 6% mortgage, reducing the amortization period to 35 years from 40 years results in a $41 increase to the borrower’s monthly payment, but you would save $49,000 in interest payments over the life of the loan. The Finance Department said in a news release: “Today’s announcement marks a responsible and measured approach by the government to ensure Canada’s housing market remains strong and to reduce the risk of a U.S.-style housing bubble developing in Canada,” .
The fact is, you can still buy a home with as little as 5% down with 35 years to pay it back. And with interest rates as low as they are, it’s still better to own than rent (rents are going to spike very shortly fyi) . And while it’s not the responsibility of the government to maintain affordability, forcing homeowners to save some money before taking on the responsibility of home ownership will have a lasting positive effect as we begin moving into the new decade.
That being said, the rule changes don’t come into effect until Oct. 15th, so there’s still time to take advantage!
Thanks for reading, and please reply to me if you have any comments or questions.
D’Arcy Harris
The Harris Real Estate Group
Top 10% of All Realtors in the Lower Mainland
July 17th, 2008 at 7:51 am
July 17th, 2008 at 8:00 am
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
OMG, my belly is aching now, please stop!
July 17th, 2008 at 8:01 am
I got no benefit at all when buying my first house, so I did the 40 year, zero down thing, and intend to accelerate the heck out of my payments.
Not to mention, pulling from my RRSPs would have sucked anyway, as they’re currently at a decade low.
My point is, I see the elimination of the 40 year zero down mortages having a profound impact on this market.