Mortgage crisis building in Canada
Todays Vancouver Province has an article on the growing risk of a US/UK style mortgage crisis in Canada. We’re building like crazy at a time when the rest of the world is slowing down, are we building our way into an over-supply situation or simply catching up?
Hall noted that housing starts in Canada are “soaring on the strength of the domestic economy and a huge dollop of very well-timed fiscal stimulus,” and that a continuing excess of housing starts over requirements means “Canada’s turn may come soon” for a housing crisis.
The report came in the wake of the Canadian government’s attempt to avoid a housing crisis by no longer insuring mortgages with more than 35-year amortization periods and less than five-per-cent down payments as of Oct. 15.
If fiscal stimulus results in overbuilding and a housing market crash, can it really be considered ‘well-timed’?
Hat tip to ‘bubblicious’ for the story link.
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July 31st, 2008 at 1:45 pm
July 31st, 2008 at 1:41 pm
July 30th, 2008 at 10:36 am
It’s rude to ask how much one makes or how much something cost. Isn’t it crass to ask if someone owns?
I know a fellow who tells less fortunate people he knows (who didn’t inherit $$$$$) that he’s renting the house he lives in and owns, it makes him feel akward telling people he’s rich and he sees no benefit to making others feel bad.
July 30th, 2008 at 10:10 am
“I’ve never considered myself a second class citizen when I rented in other cities, but here in Vancouver people are ***completely*** defined by whether you rent or own. I’ve never seen anything like it, ever.”
That’s largely a product of the bubble. It wasn’t always that way here. I think it’s a part of the denial/fear dialogue that goes on in the heads of owners. They know deep down that the appreciation we’ve been seeing is abnormal and ‘too good to be true’ so they bluster and brag and put others down who aren’t as ’smart’ as they are.
It’s very much like how many of the the worst gay bashers and womanisers are worried about their own sexuality, so they externalize their fear of themselves and over compensate.
July 30th, 2008 at 8:55 am
The point is, I’m a BC boy, born and raised, this is my home. But at the end of the day the economy dictates where people will live. It’s jobs not scenery, polluted oceans and mountains. We’ll see how our province looks jobs wise once all these unsustainable construction projects are complete.
July 29th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Too bad. Renters are saving tons of money. Some cities (especially in Europe) allow signing of multi-year leases. For some reason these are rare in Vancouver. Maybe this is the mother of all bubbles that breaks the back of the city’s dependence on real estate for building and flaunting wealth.
When I moved here from back east the reclusive nature of people here seemed weird. Everyone had their own thing going on and neighbors weren’t that close by default. Block parties used to be common in the east whereas here it’s maybe once a year and it’s not the norm — the city goes out of its way to encourage block parties as a way of making the city more friendly. There are pockets of good neighborhoods around but it takes a lot of searching.
July 29th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Maybe? Depends when it was. Bash away, but lots of people LOVE living in Vancouver, have traveled extensively, and still migrate back. Others hate it.
Vancouver prices are high and incomes are low on a national scale — i.e. poor affordability. I will not second guess 2.5 million people making a rational decision about where they want to live and at what cost. Vancouver may not be for everyone but lots like it for what it is; on the flipside I know many people who would never live in Vancouver. Those that choose to live here have reasons beyond the usual platitudes of “climate, water and mountains”. The city has amenities catering to certain ethnic groups and I’m sure that commands a premium for many. The list goes on but the market has spoken and not just recently — Vancouver has had relatively poor affordability for decades. I have a hard time believing it’s Kool Aid.
“However, Halifax has mild winters for the same reason Vancouver does: It’s on the water.”
Halifax can get pretty cold in the winter months but many like to live there regardless. Blizzards. Real blizzards. Lucky for them they can afford more for less. I think we can agree weather is a bit of a sidebar.
I use Honolulu as an example of another market where affordability is poor. HNL is not YVR by any means but the same principle applies: relatively nice weather and environment on a national basis commands a premium in terms of high prices and low wages. I know people who lived there and didn’t like it: too laid back and too expensive.
July 29th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
US banks have written down $450 billion in bad housing loans. The revelation from NAB means that they will now certainly need to take provisions to $1,000 billion. But write-downs of $1,300 billion and perhaps even more are on the cards.
http://www.businessspectator.c.....mp;src=sph
July 29th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
The weather thing now makes me laugh. I’ve lived in Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver now for extended periods. Ottawa and Toronto have terrible weather. However, Halifax has mild winters for the same reason Vancouver does: It’s on the water.
And there are other problems with living in Vancouver. I’ve never considered myself a second class citizen when I rented in other cities, but here in Vancouver people are ***completely*** defined by whether you rent or own. I’ve never seen anything like it, ever.
I have a friend who is ending a 5 year relationship. No matter how I try ad convince him renting is a smart idea for him now, he won’t even consider it. He won’t really explain why but you can tell the subtext…. for him it’s like going back to being ‘poor’.
The oceans and the mountains here are nice and all but I’m not at all sure I’m sticking around any more, and part of the reason is I’m just getting burned out on dealing with the whole “best place on earth” kool aid fest…….
July 29th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Similar to the stupid argument that I have witnessed being waged on these blogs in the past regarding the “best place on earth”. What a tough sell to anyone that lives in the place your boosting as the best…. yawn.
Moving on…our Canadian economy just keeps trucking along… BCE cut 2,500 jobs yesterday. Drop in the bucket compared to what our precious forestry is seeing, but front page news nonetheless. Don’t cry for them, they were middle management, ergo they probably had it coming.
July 29th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
You’re attempting to debate with a retarded monkey.
This is the time to remember the old adage;
“Never argue with an idiot, they’ll only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
July 29th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
They are. That’s why I posted the affordability info and not the median cost. Affordability takes wage into consideration.
Vancouver is nearly dead last in the Statscan list of top 25 Canadian cities (by population) for wages.
We’re ahead of Abbotsford, Trois-Rivières, Sherbrooke and St John.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/En.....70529e.htm
July 29th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Past performance is not too bad and the prediction won’t be bad as well-here is little recap for b.c. population growth.
April 1st 2008 4,428,356
April 1st 2002 4,105,904″
Fine and dandy. I thought we were talking about the city of Vancouver, not the whole province. I doubt the population doubled or will double in Vancouver anytime soon, which was your assertion.
Saying population is doubling quickly is as me saying sometime in the future there will be more people in Canada. It’s such a vague statement that doesn’t show anything.
It also depends who is increasing those numbers. Is it immigrants from other countries? Believe it or not most recent immigrants, according to a Statistics Canada report report , perform worse economically than people born in Canada so they probably wouldn’t be buying real estate quickly (the wage gap takes years to eliminate). And if there are less immigrants now, as I indicated in a previous link, then that just means less buyers.
This of course, if you want to make a rational analysis. You could always say prices are going to keep going sky high and people will flock to Vancouver based on a hunch.
July 29th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Ah yes, data. Thanks. I believe incomes in Vancouver are lower compared to Toronto (data). It’s a combination of lower incomes and higher rents (and cost of living) that should be indicative of a city’s desirability.
July 29th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
July 29th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
“A reading of 100 means that a two-bedroom apartment would eat up 30 per cent of income, using the rule of thumb that a household should spend less than 30 per cent of its income on rent. A lower reading indicates they are spending more than that, and a higher reading indicates less.
Toronto, having the least affordable rental market since 2004, is the only city to see an increase in affordability this year but to a reading of just 94 from 91, meaning that rental costs would still exceed the 30-per-cent benchmark.
In contrast, Montreal’s reading this year, at 130, is down from 133. The readings from the other cities and the change from 2006, were Vancouver unchanged at 101, Calgary 103 and down from 109, Halifax unchanged at 112″
July 29th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
July 29th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
July 29th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
An idiot who knows nothing but thinks he does and has the communication skills of a 5 year old with split personalities.
“Who is this Krissh? I am informer warehouse worker #1″
July 29th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
July 29th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
July 29th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Halifax rents are more similar to Victoria, which has a similar size and economy.
July 29th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
You need to face reality - fundamentals are totally out of whack.
July 29th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Decent year-round weather, mountains, craphole rental
OR
Snow, no mountains, renting a Victorian heritage home
Nothing is free and people in both locales have made their rational choices. Tells me Vancouver offers something other places don’t and it’s not just hubris.
July 29th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Moved to Vancouver, and even making more than $100K as a family we really couldn’t afford to buy anything decent. Rent for crapholes is more than we paid in Halifax.
Lifestyle in Vancouver is terrible right now.
July 29th, 2008 at 11:56 am
One of my old friends is moving here from there. He is taking a job as a VP for a local company here in Van. He’ll be making an excellent salary with great benefits… and guess what? He’s *not* buying here.
He’s stunned at how much his “lifestyle” is going to change, and not for the better. He’s renting out his 2,100 SF Victorian in downtown Halifax, and when he looks around at the kind of accommodations Van has to offer… well let’s just say he isn’t very impressed.
Every smart, successful person I know who comes to Vancouver from somewhere else has a dislike for the local “lifestyle” koolaid. It’s plainly means for Dosh, krrish, Rob and the rest of the idiots too stupid to distinguish marketing from reality.
I myself am seriously entertaining a move back to the Maritimes, where “lifestyle” means you can afford a nice place on a regular salary…. as opposed to buying lottery tickets and praying to win enough for a 500 sf leaky craphole.
July 29th, 2008 at 11:42 am
http://tinyurl.com/do-or-die
Death is an effective remedy for debt, along with anything else that may be bothering you too. And try to think of it too from a lofty, corner-office, perspective: If you can’t pay your debts or afford to play your role as a consumer, and if, in addition — like an ever-rising number of Americans — you’re no longer needed at the workplace, then there’s no further point to your existence. I’m not saying that the creditors, the bankers and the mortgage companies actually want you dead, but in a culture where one’s credit rating is routinely held up as a three-digit measure of personal self-worth, the correct response to insoluble debt is in fact, “Just shoot me!”
July 29th, 2008 at 11:42 am
July 29th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Not only that, but they are going to buy in Nova Scotia (where they are from). They know where the value is. Even if you win millions of dollars, you don’t sink it into Vancouver real estate.
July 29th, 2008 at 10:55 am
your point being the only way to afford buying a house is to win the lottery…..
everybody else stays out of the market…….
not good for sales going forward is it?
July 29th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Guess who was his co-worker?
Guess what are they buying?
http://www.canada.com/victoria.....bc71dfcdea
July 29th, 2008 at 10:12 am
“He did mention that he’s been renting, so even as a realtor it seems like he hasn’t gotten swept up in the local mania.”
He’s 24. It’s highly unlikely that he could even afford a place unless he’s an exceptionally good realtor (unlikely at that age, he’s probably just a bandwagon jumper).
July 29th, 2008 at 9:33 am
The fact that he put the note in the bank for almost a year and did not go bling-bling on it says a lot about the person.
He might, just might, be in the 1% of lottery winners whose life is NOT totally ruined by their wins.
I wish him best of luck!
Regards,
arit
July 29th, 2008 at 9:33 am
He also stashed the ticket while he considered his plans, so he doesn’t come across as very impulsive. Bet he stashes a chunk of cash for a few years and then starts low-balling desperate over-extended sellers with cash. That’s what I’d do.
July 29th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Here’s my favorite excerpt:
“I’m going to let the money grow - it’s never going to deplete,” he said. “I’m a big believer in real estate.”
You do that big guy, buy up as much as you possibly can.
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/natio … 1256255009
This guy is a buddy of mine from my BCIT days. LOL! Lucky guy.
July 29th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Extreme Foreclosure - a sad sign of the times….
LAKE CITY, Ga. — More than 1,800 people showed up to help ABC’s “Extreme Makeover” team demolish a family’s decrepit home and replace it with a sparkling, four-bedroom mini-mansion in 2005.
Three years later, the reality TV show’s most ambitious project at the time has become the latest victim of the foreclosure crisis.
After the Harper family used the two-story home as collateral for a $450,000 loan, it’s set to go to auction on the steps of the Clayton County Courthouse Aug. 5. The couple did not return phone calls Monday, but told WSB-TV they received the loan for a construction business that failed.
The house was built in January 2005, after Atlanta-based Beazer Homes USA and ABC’s “Extreme Makeover” demolished their old home and its faulty septic system. Within six days, construction crews and hoards of volunteers had completed work on the largest home that the television program had yet built.
The finished product was a four-bedroom house with decorative rock walls and a three-car garage that towered over ranch and split-level homes in their Clayton County neighborhood. The home’s door opened into a lobby that featured four fireplaces, a solarium, a music room and a plush new office.
Materials and labor were donated for the home, which would have cost about $450,000 to build. Beazer Homes’ employees and company partners also raised $250,000 in contributions for the family, including scholarships for the couple’s three children and a home maintenance fund.
July 29th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Interesting side note: I have two friends that have gone traveling over the last year to see the world. They both decided to move away from Vancouver upon return. One already has and another couple will be traveling for a few months more before returning to sell their condo and move away.
Travel is great for giving you perspective. You suddenly realize that ‘lifestyle’ is something you can have in quality, rather than just as an image of someone drinking coffee in a condo ad.
July 29th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Really? Minimilism must be very big in Vancouver then. Looking at interior shots in the MLS so many of those families live without any furniture at all. Maybe they couldn’t afford furniture after paying the mortgage?
Oh yeah, and all those condos under construction are occupied as well, by pigeons, so no problem with oversupply.
July 29th, 2008 at 8:47 am
i saw a recent purchase of a house in east van on lawrence street on june 08 … i think it sold for 600 k… now someone is trying to flip it for over 700 k.
there are still speculators and flippers out there hoping for a quick buck. “caveat emptor” buyer beware
July 29th, 2008 at 8:47 am
“S&P: Home Prices Drop by Record 15.8% in May”
news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080729/ap_on_bi_ge/home_prices
Check out the photo on the top right of the article, the for sale sign on a house in Stockton, CA. I love the “MAKE OFFER!” sign above it. So demanding… so desperate. Sigh.
July 29th, 2008 at 8:11 am
One of my friend sold his condo last month he was surprised to see his own unit on rent priced at half what would be a monthly mortgage payment of purchaser.you can figure out what you want to make out of this in my opinion he is none other than !!!!investor!!!!.
#30 says”We have 20,000 units of inventory for the market to absorb.”
#30 those are already absorbed because 20k sellers and there family members are living in them.
“The only way that 20K inventory will clear is if vendors drop prices.”-#30
#30 you are laying for sure because there are lots of otherway to sell units,there are lots of alternative solution to take it off or sell it.
“Price is going to plummet in the next 2 years.”
#30 That would be 4+2=six year total and you would be counting for decades to come.
“If you own property, GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.”
#30 then go where?should we leave this city or stay here?
“If you don’t get out, then 20,000 other owners are more than happy to get out before you do!”.
#30 question for you.Are those seller going to leave this city after their unit get sold?In my opinion they won’t move out of this city that’s mean we need to accomodate those 20k seller in almost same size of homes in that case renting tenent will become home owner to take sellers place and most of sellers will take tenents place that will increase the rents again.
I just wanted to tell you some people are playing double double with honest bears first they increase the home price then they increase rent prices.anyway “Smart Buyers and Fool Seller” will be countinue ………..
July 29th, 2008 at 7:06 am
Here’s my favorite excerpt:
“I’m going to let the money grow - it’s never going to deplete,” he said. “I’m a big believer in real estate.”
You do that big guy, buy up as much as you possibly can.
http://www.canada.com/topics/n.....1256255009
July 29th, 2008 at 3:13 am
Both were of course Glen Clark’s ideas, although the Liberals like to pretend otherwise for the latter.
But maybe they’ll change their tune if it turns out to be a debacle. It was all Glen’s fault!
July 29th, 2008 at 1:11 am
LOL. Thanks, Yoda.
July 28th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
If you own property, GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN. If you don’t get out, then 20,000 other owners are more than happy to get out before you do!
July 28th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
July 28th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
July 28th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
…64 per cent in BC believe it’s a bad time to make a major purchase and 20 per cent feel it is a good time. That’s the lowest number in the entire country.”
Hmm… that can’t be good for home sales.
July 28th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
Past performance is not too bad and the prediction won’t be bad as well-here is little recap for b.c. population growth.
April 1st 2008 4,428,356
April 1st 2002 4,105,904
Little correction for #2.from the total number of homes more than 300,000 homes in metro vancouver are “Subsidized Government Housing”.
July 28th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Funny thing is that our Drachen live in point grey where few weeks ago browntown has launched a rental rocket going towards moon and bdk i know you live here for sure PostingID: 760537443
“$8000 / 3br - THE “WOW” WATERFRONT PENTHOUSE SEAWALK (COAL HARBOUR)”.-Right?
July 28th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
July 28th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
I’m goin’ on break.
July 28th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
July 28th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Gratuitous. Your anger makes you weak.
July 28th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Our real estate agent has never met sane people before:
http://www.freemoneyfinance.co.....state.html
Interesting rant about how markets require people with very little fiscal intelligence who get emotionally attached to a house and overpay. Unfortunately for the flippers there’s a bottom to the bucket of idiots as we’ve seen in countless bubble markets throughout history.
July 28th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
So he’s probably a realtor.
Look him up in two years, he will be pushing pallets.
July 28th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Krrish is barely smart enough to push pallets across a warehouse floor.
July 28th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
no it is inter-galactic migration of which krrrsh2 is a harbinger…..
July 28th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
“population is doubling quickly”
Really? Where are the stats for that. If I may quote a recent story: there’s less immigrants moving to Vancouver
Is the “doubling” of the population due to new births? If so, then you know something I didn’t because Canada as a whole is having less and less babies and young children.
Is it inter-provincial migration? I doubt even if we poached the largest cities in Alberta we could double the population of Vancouver with a snap of the fingers.
Also, how long would the doubling take to be achieved? It’s very different to say the population of Vancouver will double by 2015 than by 2030.
July 28th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
He is using a gibberish filter. There’s lots of them out there.
An example:
Gibberish Generator
July 28th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Personally I think his mom came over here in a cargo container, spent a few years working in meth labs and grow ops were she got knocked up. She spent a few months breathing in fumes from the meth lab and pesticides from the grow-up, then got started in her new job as “hostess”.
Say what you will, it explains his posts.
July 28th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
July 28th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Mr. Darcy turned to Eliza, the Cubs took the field up 3-2, when will this rain end, one hopes Iraq will disarm in time to avoid nuclear confrontation, you too can be 3 inches longer, population is doubling quickly, bottom liners are being pushed to corners, either apply for government subsidized home or join a team rent….
Somebody checker thumbsucker’s basement for a bank of servers.
July 28th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
“$7500 / 2br - +den, 3 bathroom, Point Grey waterfront home (Cameron St, Vancouver)PostingID: 768759268 craigslist.”
It’s not a joke, Cameron road is waterfront just east of the foot of Alma, it’s closer to the water than Pt Grey Road and every house on that street is multi million dollar, equivalent properties on Pt Grey Road are going for more than that on Unique Accomodations*com for rentals.
July 28th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Real estate agent Steve Koffman of Century 21 Sunbelt Realty said there are buyers who will pick up the unsold part of a whole community, but they’re looking for bargains.
He’s been called by hedge funds and investors interested in picking up unfinished developments, but they can’t afford to pay much and still turn a profit.
“They’re going to need to buy them for 10 (percent) to 15 percent profit along with a cushion because prices are going down, plus sales costs and construction costs,” he said.
The bottom line: Investors may be buying for 10 percent to 20 percent of what the project originally would have sold for.
This has all happened before.
“Look at the Great Depression,” Koffman said. “The Rockefellers made billions buying real estate for pennies on the dollar. There are going to be people who profit.”
July 28th, 2008 at 11:45 am
July 28th, 2008 at 11:42 am
“Experts say the wave of speculation that peaked at the end of 2005 - when the median resale price of a home was $322,300 - caused a spurt of construction at prices nobody could pay. According to figures released Thursday, the median resale price in June was $172,400.”
…
“A typical condo in Concordia can be had for about $100,000. That’s 63 percent less than the $267,900 the Van Dresses paid in April 2007.”
I found this on http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html
Original story: http://tinyurl.com/579r7j
July 28th, 2008 at 11:27 am
What does Kramer say on Seinfeld? “Serenity now…serenity now…”
At this point opinion seems divided between an ultra-elaborate Andy Kaufman-style prank, or genuine mental disorder.
July 28th, 2008 at 11:23 am
This blog is very democratic, if this goof (I haven’t ruled out the possibility that this is all an act) were to mouth off this way in a public place somebody would eventually punch him in the nose.
July 28th, 2008 at 11:18 am
At least the enormous crash will occur just in time for our “coming out” party/2010 (that is if anybody has the disposable income to even show up). Oh wait, I forgot: (repeated over and over in chant-like drone) “everybody wants to live here.”
I saw a bumper sticker the other day: “If you liked the fast ferries, you’ll love 2010″.
July 28th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Have we heard from all the fruits and vegetables now?
July 28th, 2008 at 10:43 am
“$7500 / 2br - +den, 3 bathroom, Point Grey waterfront home (Cameron St, Vancouver)PostingID: 768759268 craigslist.”
I saw this listing too. It’s got to be a joke. That’s $250 a night. I’d rather live at the Hyatt!
July 28th, 2008 at 10:28 am
“It would be better if we keep on making because they will be countinue keep on coming”-Vancouver City Councillors (few months ago in georgia article)
Why?
$7500 / 2br - +den, 3 bathroom, Point Grey waterfront home (Cameron St, Vancouver)PostingID: 768759268 craigslist.
Because of less supply for rental market- rental places are being rent on snap shots after raffles there is no project coming to complete as yet.
We must make more to stop the biding war in rental market or buying and selling,most important part is that stat also keep the jobs in action.
population is doubling quickly, bottom liners are being pushed to corners either apply for government subsidized home or join a team rent as single sleep with four.In metro Vancouver,There are more than 300,000 thousands people are residing in those homes and the left over numbers of homes are not much to talk about that’s why there is no reason for fall only some heedless people encourage other to get in then get out basic fundamental to buy house is“BUY PRINCIPLE RESIDENCE BUT DON”T SELL IT FOR MONEY UNLESS OR OTHERWISE”.-PINTO BEAN.
July 28th, 2008 at 10:10 am