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July 24th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
time:
“W” an intellectual RE roadkill property
“be bold or move to the suburbs”
a marketing campaign that’ll
come back to haunt you
July 24th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
“Coal Harbour didn’t have the highest concentraion of social services, HIV, Mental Addiction”
If you think Gastown has it then question is where do they come from?I think they were us before and now it’s them.
“and the most impoverished postal code in all of Canada.”
So what?Is there anybody in gastown ever wanted to move out from that place?Answer is NO!
Do we have more listing in gastown than downtown or coal harbour?
Answer is NO!
“The Woodwards project will be the epitome of everything that’s wrong with the bubble and will easily lose as much as the worst of the California, Las Vegas or Florida bubbles”
So your motive is bubble campaign why are you wasting time making stuff up?why are you hunting “W” for crack? while your previous worried were washed away without any lose?I mean to say all those spectrum,la hermitage,raffles,and alberni!hey!you never returned back to report any bleeding?at the end why don’t you simplly admit that you are an idiot!!!!!in fear and in your own dreams making stuff up to hide what have you done before?,please take exit no.11(legs).
July 24th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Woody.
Coal Harbour didn’t have the highest concentraion of social services, HIV, Mental Addiction and the most impoverished postal code in all of Canada and when Marathon Lands started selling Coal Harbour it wasn’t $525 sq/ft either.
Comparing the most desirable area of Vancouver with the Slum of all of Canada is not compareable and the junkies won’t give a sh*t if two towers go up.
Yaletown was nothing like the downtown eastside either.
You must be joking around if you think $525 sq/ft is a good deal.
Qube was $500 sq/ft and will be again soon as a landmark building in a nice area should be.
The Woodwards project will be the epitome of everything that’s wrong with the bubble and will easily lose as much as the worst of the California, Las Vegas or Florida bubbles.
The residents will be reminded of this when they find dirty needles in their elevator and have people smoking crack outside the parkade gate.
No concierge will want to work there.
I hate to pick on you Woody but what you said is just so assinine it deserves ridicule.
Do you understand that the average incomes of Vancouver?
Is it going right over your head that only hte elite can afford to pay those prices and none of them would be stupid enough.
July 24th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
woody:
do you have an assignment or unit at “W”?
July 24th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
jesse
“so it makes you wonder who’s briging down the number below zero?”
Another big one from what I understand is boomers withdrawing home equity to help finance their children’s homes.
July 24th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
If the market pulls back 25% they won’t be laughing. If downtown condos are at $650/sf right now, a 25% pull-back would leave you at $488/sf. If you had equity of 25% initially, you would lose 28% of your initial capital. Ouch. If you had more leverage, you lose more money. If you had 92% leverage, you’ve lost it all. Theoretically, if you only had to put down like 10%, you are almost equity negative and you could potentially walk away.
Do they require a personal guarantee on those obligations? Would they allow me to buy assignments using a special purpose vehicle? Are they sophisticated enough to know what that means (non recourse to the owner)?
July 24th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
betamax – I agree – not to mention all the funky businesses that are down there now taking advantage of the cheap rent (like my fav – Boneta’s) that are going to be be forced to close because everyone’s disposable income is the first thing to vanish in a recession.
If the boom had continued for another 3-5 years, the DTES might have had a chance. I think the Woodward’s building is going to prove to be the high water mark for “development” down there.
The irony is that it stands a solid chance of going right back to where it started – a squat for everyone who lives in the area right now.
July 24th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
if the market pulls back 25% they are still laughing.
25% will be just the beginning, and they won’t be laughing.
to assume the DTES will continue on asis [sic] indefinately is even more naive.
Agreed. The DTES will be worse later, when the long-term recession arrives, combined with higher energy costs, and both provincial and private coffers are depleted paying for past megaprojects and general over-capacity. No shades required.
July 24th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
I don’t think Yaletown and Coal Harbor are fair comparisons, as these areas were basically EMPTY when they were developed. Bringing up (or down, comparing on your point of view) the DTES to their “standards” involves moving a large population of human beings who, for better or worse, call that area home.
July 24th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
“Increasing number of retired or semi retired people.”
There is a possible component of offshore savings and investments not tracked through Statscan and black market proceeds. Your other points sum up the situation nicely.
Given the average mortgage debt has increased in the past decade in conjunction with a falling savings rate indicates that a significant portion of the shortfall comes from home equity withdrawals. As I mentioned earlier a recent property market entrant will likely not have a negative savings rate (save unsecured loans) so it makes you wonder who’s briging down the number below zero? The retired and semi-retired don’t make that much of the population yet.
July 24th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Think it’s best that people check back 5yrs after completion to see if they change their minds. Yaletown was once a dump as was Coal harbour, the first residents there all took chances and are now rewarded.
What Woodwards will bring who knows but to assume the DTES will continue on asis indefinately is even more naive.
July 24th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I’d love to see the DTES brought back into some kind of balance, but Woodwards seems like a disaster – a little hermetically sealed world on the edge of one of the most heart-wrenching spectacles in Canada. I’m presuming people who would want to ACTUALLY live there are aware of the problems and the depressing cavalcade of human misery it presents on a daily basis.
Boneta’s, right down the street from Woodwards is one of my favorite restaurants, but to get there you have to dodge spent hypos, human feces, and people openly shooting up or smoking crack, trying to sell you the coat off their back (I’m not making this up).
I can’t imagine dealing with that on a daily basis. It would become an exhausting ordeal. Either that or the people who bought have no intention of living there, or being involved in the local community in any way, shape, or form. Neither option seems particularly palatable.
July 24th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Jesse
“I am trying to resolve if the -8% savings rate is a true measure of cash flow or not.”
I think it is. There are several factors which contribute.
Increasing number of retired or semi retired people. They are living largely off of savings.
Increase in home equity. If people get a HELOC or a second mortgage that drops their savings rate. For example. A house purchased in 1987 for $150k which is now evaluated at $700k only counts for $150k of savings (the amount paid against principle) and if the home owners take out $100,000 from their HELOC to get a pair of Mercedes they are considered to have dropped $100k of savings (even though some people would argue they have gained $450k in savings through the whole transaction).
Increase in housing costs and the illusion of endless wealth generation through housing. Many couples are piling on debt on credit cards, lines of credit etc. to make their mortgage payments each month because they believe this is financially prudent and as their earnings increase through their careers they can pay off the debts.
July 24th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
For those looking for the next bubble to invest in, what about bubbles?
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/sto.....pagne.html
July 24th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
“gee having paid on average $525psf even if the market pulls back 25% they are still laughing.”
Ummm, Woody this is the poorest postal code in Canada with the highest level of HIV in the developed world.
It’s not like any of the mental health and Addiction treatment centres will be packing up and leaving because of a two new towers.
These centres are unwelcome everywhere they go (google NOT IN ANYONES BACKYARD if this isn’t obvious to you.
Remember VHB pointing out only 49% of Pt Grey residents could afford to buy at the poorest postal code in Canada?
The Woodwards project will be such a disaster, it has all the ingredients, mentally troubled drug addicted residents, specuvestors who’d never dream of living there, Koreans who thought they were buying in Coal Harbour.
It’s going to be sad to see all these people who thought they were being smart lose all their money.
No one in their right mind will pay $250/sq ft to live there and the max anyone will ever get in rent is $1/sq ft and th turnover will be huge so expect to pay the property manager a lot of placement fees!
July 24th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Here’s one from the Wayback Machine: anybody up to ‘splainin’ the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980′s? Wasn’t it eerily familiar, and wasn’t Dubya’s dad and brother also intimately involved. Extra points for good penmanship.
July 24th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Haha no progress at Woodwards, maybe you need to open your eyes. The first tower is going to top out next week, thats why there is less movement, they have finished the first tower and have moved to the second shorter tower which just cleared the podium. The project is ahead of schedule.
I feel sorry for everyone that bought there too, gee having paid on average $525psf even if the market pulls back 25% they are still laughing.
July 24th, 2008 at 11:25 am
“What they’re talking about (in your quoted passage) is minutiae of bookkeeping principles not something that has an effect on the end number generated.”
Hi Drachen, OK I’ll take your word for it. I don’t disagree that paying off debt increases equity.
I still do not have closure, from a definition on Statscan’s site, on whether mortgage principal is included as savings or included in PCE, as it pertains to the -8% savings rate statistic. I am trying to resolve if the -8% savings rate is a true measure of cash flow or not.
July 24th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Jesse
By the way there’s no need to get snippy with me. You’re reading it wrong, I’m not suggesting that they don’t use their own definition, merely that you’re misinterpreting the definition because you probably haven’t taken any bookkeeping classes. What they’re talking about (in your quoted passage) is minutiae of bookkeeping principles not something that has an effect on the end number generated.
July 24th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Jesse
You’re messed up, I went and read it on the StatsCan page, in context your quote doesn’t mean what you think it means.
They categorise each type of savings and expenditure.
One category is “Housing”
Another category is “assets and debts”
In most surveys “Housing” includes (Mortgage payment – Payment against principle).
In 1982 “Housing” included total Mortgage payment and Payment against principle was included under “assets and debts”
The end number for personal savings rate is the same it’s just a matter of where the accountants recorded the numbers. Try re-reading your quoted passage with this in mind.
July 24th, 2008 at 10:27 am
“Paying down any kind of debt is considered savings, why should a mortgage be different?”
Are you suggesting the -8% savings rate quoted by Statscan does not use their own definition of savings rate? Please. Use whatever definition you want but IF we’re talking about -8% savings rate as quoted by Statscan then we need to use their definition, which includes mortgage principal as part of PCE.
The Statscan measure is all about cash flow which is why debt repayments are not considered savings. But by all means, do your own calculations.
July 24th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Jesse
Oh and by the way, the only place where you can find reference to principle payments they are considered savings. From this you conclude that principle payments are not considered savings? You’re beginning to sound a bit Krrishy.
July 24th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Article with definitions
I think it’s pretty clear. Paying down any kind of debt is considered savings, why should a mortgage be different?
July 24th, 2008 at 9:53 am
“Mortgage and investments are considered savings (or at least payment against the principle on the mortgage is).”
Drachen, are you sure principal is considered savings? Can you find a source for this, related to Statscan measure (which we are talking about)? If I read the Statscan definitions I posted previous it seems that the total mortgage is considered PCE. The reason I say this is that in one census year in the ’80s Statscan went out of its way to mention that principal was treated differently from mortgage financing costs in that specific census only:
(link)
So while BCers may be “saving” more than the stats give them credit for they are “saving” in the form of paying off debt. Regardless they are on average negative cash flow without tapping additional sources of money.
I think the best way to look at it is that a negative savings rate is effectively a negative cash flow that needs to be supplemented by drawing down savings or taking out debt and BCers are unique in Canada in this respect. As vancouverguy pointed out this has to reverse unless capital gains can continue forever (looking unlikely).
July 24th, 2008 at 9:43 am
“Our negative savings rate looks bad because it IS bad.”
I think so, too. I just thought a shift in thinking about savings might be interesting.
July 24th, 2008 at 9:07 am
ellery
“Someone with little cash, but a mortgage and investments”
Mortgage and investments are considered savings (or at least payment against the principle on the mortgage is). That Anonymous guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
The only controversial issue with “savings” as defined in the personal savings rate is whether asset appreciation should be included before the asset is sold. The government says no and I think that makes sense because most people do not sell at the peak. Our negative savings rate looks bad because it IS bad. If housing truly were the wonder investment that would never fail then the government would be wrong but the fact is most people will see their house’s value drop to equal or less than they paid for it in real dollars.
July 24th, 2008 at 8:19 am
BC Economic Index Confirms Economy is Slowing.
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Almost to 20,000! We’re at 19971. 29 units more and we’ll hit the big 20K!
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Just posted by Paul
Inventory: 19,971 ! (20K – 29!)
S/L 30% (SFH), 37% (Condo)
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:59 pm
Last two day have been very quite at the Woodwards site.
Today it was dead.
July 23rd, 2008 at 9:07 pm
I drive by Woodwards nearly daily, I don’t know about the cranes but there’s plenty of activity going on there. I’m pretty sure they sold out those units, ITC is the general contractor and they’re big boys, they’ll finish it. You can check the progress on their site http://woodwardsdistrict.com they have a live webcam there in case you’re interested.
I feel sorry for whoever bought there though… maybe not sorry, pity might be a better word. I pity da fool who bought at Woodwards! Welcome to Botswana!
July 23rd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Best Place on Earth?
“British Columbia is probably home to the largest concentration of organised criminal syndicates in the world.” – BBC
http://tinyurl.com/6dvpuy
July 23rd, 2008 at 7:36 pm
“Quotes like this always read as “it’s different this time” to me, and it’s never different this time.”
That’s true. However, if there are ways of putting money aside which are not classified as savings, in the conservative governmental model, but which are counted as assets by the bank, that says something about contemporary attitudes about financial responsibility. Someone with little cash, but a mortgage and investments is hearing from their family and friends that they are being smart. Are they being smart? What is too much risk? The mortgage mess is clearly a part of something much bigger. That’s what interests me, and since this thread is on debt, I am bringing it up.
If you haven’t already heard it, listen to “The Giant Pool of Money” on NPR. It is an interesting summary of the credit crisis, and especially does a good job connecting the everyday people with mortgages and the big lenders. One of their points is that globally, lots of people had liquid cash (ie citizens of China and India whose earnings had been increasing) which needed a home. Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates, meaning that there’s not going to be much return for that global pool of money. Mortgage backed securities were traditionally a safe bet, and their ensuing popularity caused financial institutions to push unsafe mortgages (loosen standards) in order to meet the demand of money waiting to be invested. They were creating investment vehicles out of people. The floodgates are opened, and we all feel the effects, and will do for awhile. Vancouver residents still feel very disconnected from this, but are we?
http://www.thislife.org/Radio_.....sched=1242
That is the part of the credit crisis that doesn’t get as much attention as the people with credit card issues (who I think are popular because we all get to feel superior to them and it’s an easy problem to understand).
July 23rd, 2008 at 6:01 pm
…that is NOTHING compared to the 1.5 TRILLION that citibank has…
You’re kidding, right? That $1.5T is the notional value of its entire derivatives portfolio, and in practice is roughly evenly split between payables and receivables. You can walk down to Wall Street *today* and buy the whole damn company for ~$120B.
Citi was also bailed out earlier this year, to the tune of roughly $25B. It is not clear whether more bailouts are coming, or if the convertible structure of the bailout is a de facto death spiral. What is clear is that the bailout was from oversees – which combined with Citi’s then-existing ownership means the damn thing doesn’t even qualify as an American company anymore in anything but name.
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:59 pm
keep on freaking idiot #112 your math is wrong!if you can pay monthly payment just get in! problem solved! then no matter where the market goes???? you are in for 4sure!!!!Smartguy?actually you are not smartguy unless you are “smart buyer”-got it?
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Anybody paying attention to Woodwards site?
I work nearby and I haven’t seen the cranes move or anybody work on it for many days. They were doing well putting up glass and they got stalled seven floors from the top.
Yesterday, I took Helijet and the cranes were at the same position when I left at 7am and when I got home at 5pm. They have cranes on both the school site and the condo site, and neither seemed to move.
Maybe they’ve moved inside but it sure seems dead.
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
You’re right Smartguy.
Time/Browntown/Krissh etc. is an idiot.
It even denies knowing Krissh because it’s so stupid and it is just trolling on here because it has nothing to do when it’s not at the warehouse or leaving his low income wife with the kid in their mt pleasant studio.
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....3&t=48
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
last year husband walked away
satv:
did you really walk away and leave her in the lurch…
i am disappointed in your cavalier attitude towards parental responsibilities…..
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Time,thums,browntown et al.
Not once have you offered anything intelligent.
What is it you’re trying to say?
Are you just trying to derail the blog with stupid, incorrect and incoherent statements? Or do you actually believe you’re contributing here?
Mortgage Debt is a Leveraged Investment but it is still debt.
Assets-Liabilities=Net Worth
Time=freaking idiot
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:19 pm
MORTGAGE DEBT IS LIKE SPENDING MORE TO SAVE LATER.
one of this case where low income couple bought a property worth $80,000 five year ago rent for type of suite was around $500 that time,last year husband walked away but this lady is able to manage that appartment despite low income around $1200 per month after tax,$200 child benifit $200 child maintenance this unit is worth around $215,000. in othercase she must pay $1200 rent for similar (765 sq.ft.) unit she own in mount pleasant area while she is paying only $500 mortgage and $165 for maintenance.
I think people who think they are intelligent they should figure out that mortgage debt is not actually a debt but mortgage debt is a kind of spending more to save later,Would We Call Them Progressive Conservatives Yes “buyers in vancouver are smart home buyers”.-denzel washington.
July 23rd, 2008 at 5:08 pm
“It has been argued that the long-term decline in
the savings rate is really just a statistical construct
because some types of income, which are becoming
increasingly important, are excluded from
this measure.”
Quotes like this always read as “it’s different this time” to me, and it’s never different this time. Even in a perpetually rising housing market, it makes no sense to borrow money to spend it on depreciating assets like cars and flatscreen TVs. No matter what your house value does, your debt doesn’t go away. Either you never pay off your mortgage, in which case you don’t ever really own it, or else you sell and go back to renting. Because in a perpetually rising market it’s not just the price of the house you sell that’s going up, it’s also the house you buy.
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Some people can’t understand why others get in debt. A few years ago, I had the opportunity to question two different people on how they accumulated all their debt.
Male 48 years old – Single, never married, no children, rents mobile home owned by Uncle (cheap rent), owns a 15 year old car (also previously owned by Uncle), 25k in credit card debt, no personal savings, has never owned property. Reason for debt…too many electronics, cd’s, dvd’s and refuses to cook for himself. Eats out several times a day. Now, a restaurant meal out 2 or 3 times a week can cut into a person’s budget, but 2 or 3 meals out everyday is another story and we are not talking McDonald’s here.
Female 32 years old – Single, never married, no children, owns townhouse with minimum down payment, car loan, 10k worth of credit card debt, no savings. Reason for debt…buys things she can’t afford on her salary. Designer clothes, vacations, etc. accumulates on the credit cards and when their is a maintenance problem with the car or the townhouse, she is in crisis mode on how to pay for it.
BTW – I taught the female how to manage her spending better and she got out of debt in 3 years. The 48 year old once again is in a failed relationship, I guess he can’t find a woman to pay off his debts or likes his spending habits?
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:42 am
Pope, OT, a suggestion on site layout. I would put links to other sites at the top of the right column as people will start to use this site as a portal if the links to other sites are immediately available without clicking or scrolling. My $0.02 (and yours, since you’re using GoogleAds).
Also I expect most people are using larger screens or higher resolutions so you can expand the format to eliminate vertical white space and put more stuff on one screen in the side columns.
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:36 am
“Most of family class immigrant buying homes in vancouver with in three year of their residency but rich immigrant and migrants are buying right away”.-Keanu Reeves.
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:33 am
Hmmmmm….CIBC Class Action Lawsuit?
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....wsuit.html
July 23rd, 2008 at 11:26 am
The current situation on the street:
A Vancouver repo man was interviewed on the radio yesterday; he said they’re run off their feet repo-ing Mercedes, Hummers, and boats of all types. There’s a leading indicator for you. As someone in the USA said last year, the repo man is 6 months ahead of a CNN headline.
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:55 am
“Nearly half of immigrants remit cash: Statscan”
I wonder how many of these remittances come from people with negative savings rates.
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Nearly half of immigrants remit cash: Statscan
http://tinyurl.com/richimmigrant
…so in effect they are not buying real estate
and another one bites the dust……
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:36 am
Moldcity asked:
“What kind of idiot thinks house prices can keep going up forever without incomes rising?”
Time/satv/krissh/thumsup said:
“prices are in line with Increasing income,low interest rates,rapid rental yeild growth,rich migration,and of course beautiful city”
Moldcity, your question has been answered!
July 23rd, 2008 at 10:22 am
What kind of idiot think housing prices are not supported by fundamental???prices are in line with Increasing income,low interest rates,rapid rental yeild growth,rich migration,and of course beautiful city “In The Best Place On Earth”-Captain Jack Sparrow.
http://www.ohjohnny.net/potc2/MrJuly.jpg go buy home today and enjoy your life.