Falling like leaves (link-o-rama)
Yeah, I know. August is far too early to be using an autumnal metaphor, but housing market cycles don’t run on a regular schedule like the seasons do. You already know that our local real estate boom has withered on the vine, but did you know markets are slowing across the country? I guess the big question now is how bad will our housing hangover be?
Anyone looking to sell in the next couple of years has to be hoping we don’t follow the US cycle, where one third of all new owners owe more than their house is worth and a quarter of homes sold in the last year were sold at a loss. Of course thats on a national level, cities like Stockton California are in much worse shape with prices dropping 38% in one year.
Will demand return to the lower mainland real estate market or will we see modern day ghost towns in the burbs?
If you don’t believe in all this doom n’ gloom perhaps its time to buck the trend and invest in real estate. Money is still cheap and sometimes big risks bring big rewards. You could try Spain where prices are predicted to drop 20 to 30% over the next four years, or the UK where there’s lots of listings to choose from. Some see bright spots in the New Zealand housing market if you want to go a bit further afield. They’re only talking about drops in the 10% range.
Feeling brave?
August 14th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Here's a beauty article, filled with statistical info:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/90892-the-great-c…
Here's a sample:
“'It is easy to ignore the storm if you look at the opposite horizon. When the storm reaches your location there can be no more ignorance.'
…The 6,000 sq ft McMansion buying, BMW leasing, $5 Starbucks latte drinking, granite countertop upgrading, home equity borrowing days are coming to an end."
LOL!! Love that part!
Probably a bit too chicken little for some on here, but hey, it's the US not Canada! We're totally decoupled from the States, every bull knows that.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:57 am
buying an SUV as an investment "vehicle"
financial advice from a sackfullofhammers.com
August 14th, 2008 at 11:08 am
I'm diversifying my investments right now. I've bought several different makes of crew cab truck lately for my investments. I've got a ford, gm, and soon nissan. I'm probably going to buy a boat or two in the next few weeks for more diversification. Then I'm off to Regina to scoop up some real estate. I've already got 12 pre-solds in Vancouver ready to go for the big boom.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Housing prices dip nationwide
The malaise in housing is now clearly being felt across most of the country, but nowhere more keenly than Calgary and Edmonton.
In Calgary, the average house home sold in July dipped to $413,371, a 10.1 per cent decline from a year earlier. Sales in Alberta’s largest city also fell 13.1 per cent from a year ago.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:59 am
http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/article/1…
"…Vancouver saw a 24% decline in the number of homes sold through the multiple listing service (MLS) through the first seven months of the year, with prices continuing to climb to an average of $610,306. However, on a month-over-month basis, the number of MLS sales plunged 44% and the average selling price was down by 1.0% to $575,256…"
http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/article/1…
"…But in some markets, home prices have risen faster than can be justified by economic fundamentals, the report says……In Canada, the forecast is for a moderation in price growth but no downturn, the report says…Canada appears to be less at risk, the report says, because recent house price levels 'appear to be roughly in line with fundamentals.'"
The second article says Canada is more in line with fundamentals, as a whole. We all know Vancouver's contribution to the whole of Canada in this record.
I think next year after the completion of many of the mega-projects and more condos, the glut of inventory will be huge. The profit margins are being erased for flippers and developers. If interest rates go up it will be the "perfect storm". If that happens Shiller will once again be able to say he called it when he said Vancouver was one of the bubbliest cities in the World.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:41 am
http://tinyurl.com/6kyld7
a San Diego developer is offering a "buy one, get one free" deal, pairing million-dollar homes with less expensive homes.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Drachen,
Sorry for the mixup.
Regarding bigfoot, I guess we will know tomorrow….
Will really give a boost to those "Olympics" we will be having – one of the mascots is a Sasquatch.
"Buy a condo in Kelowna with views to the newly discovered Sasquatch habitat"
"Buy a condo in Vancouver before the rich Sasquatch come over and invest in RE"
"Everybody wants to live here, even mythical creatures…"
Regards,
arit
August 14th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Arit
That was me, not blueskies. That photo of a wet gorilla costume with chicken guts spread on top is about as convincing as anything the bulls have, I'll give you that.
I like the context of the bigfoot photo too, right above Nazi world war 2 era UFOs that fly using zero point energy and were being used as torsion field generators for purposes of time travel. Strangely enough I actually met a guy once who swore it was true, when asked why there's no proof he said, "Why else do you think the Americans were so eager to recruit all the German scientists!"
August 14th, 2008 at 9:15 am
john:
did you hear about the russian billionaire who is interested in buying the Hummer from GM?
would you buy a russian built Hummer?
would you buy the whole company?
i'm assuming you are not a billionaire if all
you can buy is one Titan
August 14th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Browntown, you're right I'll leave the rv and the Titan I'm going to buy from John ,for 30% more than he paid yesterday, at wal mart when I buy at spectrum.
Thanks for the advice you are a thoughtful man.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Blueskies,
"Anyone who thinks the market will be seeing these prices in a few or even in ten years probably also believes in Unicorns, Leprechauns and the Sasquach."
CAREFUL, very careful with those metaphores!!!
"August 13, 2008 – Bigfoot Body Found in Georgia?
DNA and photo evidence to be presented at press conference August 15, 2008"
from: http://www.earthfiles.com/
August 14th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Ok you people really are fools if you think it's all over. This market is stronger than a red bull. It's going up up up forever and I've bought plenty to avoid being priced out forever. Went to a Nissan dealer yesterday to put a hold on a bunch of Titans too. I heard they have lots of Titans for now but once they shut down the line then there won't be any left.
August 14th, 2008 at 7:16 am
yeah bdk, you should buy now in canadian dollhairs! maybe even put in lowball offer while other buyers at beach! free advise for you becaause you are blog buddy! spectrum is nice buildings, lots of colour! apparantly not much parking so leave rv at parents home! yeah
August 13th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
browntown,
Is it a good time to buy property right now? Which way is the market going and how will the Canadian Dollars decline impact an already stagnant market? How much will a unit at Spectrum sell for next year?
Do you know any other made up quotes from retired Canucks? I find ex professional athletes to be the most well read and intelligent investors out there right after hairstylists and coffee baristas.
Let me know because inquiring minds want to know?
August 13th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
hey freako, take time out from trying invent land making machine to come back to blog! bears in desperate need of smart comment!
August 13th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Rain Dancer.
The average cost per sq ft in Manhatten is $1,150
First look at this for the New York prices:
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/
Or type in your own google search
For verification of the Vancouver Prices go to the MLS and select Coal Harbour from within Vancouver West.
I know fully well that Vancouver is not New York and that's why it's preposterous that prices would be anywhere near them. Common sense indicates a World Trade Center with all sorts of head offices, wall street, corporate headquarters (high paying jobs) and 30 million people trump a small tourism (starbucks, Rob A),forestry and mining town and of course krissh/satv legendary warehouse job that pays 6 figures (if you can't the decimal points).
August 13th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they’re going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units.
I don't understand…why is that bad news??
August 13th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
67VancouverBanker Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they’re going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units. This a big name player with a long history, I was surprised to hear they’re doing something like this. Fortunately, these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.
Shouldn't they just sell them for whatever they can get? Why hold an investment that will lose value and not generate enough income to justify the cost?
August 13th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Blueskies
"a couple of years to 10 years…..
i’d lean to the longer term just ’cause
i’m a bear…."
From the crash of 1981 it took about 20 years for real prices to hit that high again. Every possible fundamental marker shows that we are way deeper in the crap this time around. Anyone who thinks the market will be seeing these prices in a few or even in ten years probably also believes in Unicorns, Leprechauns and the Sasquach.
August 13th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Clam Chowderhead
"Good move on the developer, for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit."
Well if you have some numbers I'd love to see them. Otherwise you're making a pretty wild guess here. Especially the part about the market coming around in a few years, that's a knee slapper that is!
August 13th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
quote 1
these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.
quote 2
for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit.
a couple of years to 10 years…..
i'd lean to the longer term just 'cause
i'm a bear….
August 13th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
That's easy that would be Westbank and the South Granville Lofts. It's a great product, very good construction, just in a bad location, and put on the market at a time when everyone wanted new stuff. Good move on the developer, for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit.
August 13th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they're going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units. This a big name player with a long history, I was surprised to hear they're doing something like this. Fortunately, these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.
August 13th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
nice to see that at least one of satv's personalities is still alive and well.
satv, you should sell your shitty spectrum studio as soon as possible. soon its price will be in the five figures range. $89,999 sounds about right.
August 13th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
NO DOWN TURN IN REAL SENSE
Vancouver place of action the best place to be,there is no downturn in real sense in decades to come,there is no peak compare to crash 81,only stages takes time to setup new lag then peak switch over to new height after smooth landing,this is a warning for sitting out dum heads and sold out idiots go join r.e.wagon before it leaves the dust(lazybears)behind.
In seperate note rents for spectrum jump 100% in four months from previous high and recently rents are threatning dummers to get back to their units before its too late.in another note:$20000 / 5br – LUXURIOUS WATERFRONT HOME-PostingID: 795537687.for this much,more than 6 bears can buy condo worth more than 300k.
"In last decade i have purchased few condo those worth double triple than what it cost me at time of purchase,now i don't have to work hard to win stanley for my city i have announced my early retirement earlier while smart buyers and fool sellers will be countinue…."-Trevor Linden
August 13th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Scullboy – Believe it or not I wasn't being facetious. I love Toronto in the autumn, they get a great big show of color in the trees that you just don't see here. That and there's a real variety of nightlife and stuff going on in the downtown core. I try to get out there to visit family in the fall whenever I can.
August 13th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Thanks anon, I'm just doing some tweaking.. temporarily broke something. It should be all back to normal now.
August 13th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Downtown Vancouver is more expensive than [Doiwntown] New York…
Anybody who thinks Yaletown or Coal Harbor are more expensive than Manhattan needs to have their head examined. Ditto for anybody (trying to) compare Yaletown or Coal Harbor to suburban NYC.
Seriously, the market is turning just fine on its own, pointless fruits-to-vegetables comparisons like those don't make any case other than bears can be as data-selective as bulls.
August 13th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Something's up with your site…
…
August 13th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Mold,
Believe it or not Spring and Fall are now the best times to be in Toronto. Toronto's stinkin' hot (and I do mean stinkin') in summer and brutally cold in winter.
Oh the other hand they know they aren't the best place on earth…
August 13th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Hey Rob A, Are you still in Vancouver? I'm curious if you made a good profit on the sale of your condo.. It's been months since you put it on the market, surely in the hot downtown core its sold at a premium by now right?
Are you planning on being in Toronto by the fall? That's the best time of year there IMHO.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
and rob a
You claimed you were relocated to the Toronto Starbucks what happened there?
August 13th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
So Rob a and John are different personas?
You're both right, get out there and buy an Expedition and a studio at spectrum as soon as you can.
How can you go wrong? The market is clearly going up forever and it makes sense that Downtown Vancouver is more expensive than New York. There is simply no action in New York compared to Vancouver
August 13th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
"but really that is your own fault so don’t get bitter towards me,"
Oh you were serious? I thought you were making a joke. My mistake and sorry you took issue.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
"In this case it’s nominal dollars to nominal dollars."
Drachen, just to be clear, the link you posted to Arbitrage cites 1990 median incomes in constant 2000 dollars.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
News from Ireland, prices dropping for over a year now and this is the latest:
http://tinyurl.com/ireland-minus-40
August 13th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Yaletown sexiest place in Canada
Vancouver neighbourhood top choice among speed-dating clients: survey
John Colebourn, Canwest News Service
Published: Thursday, July 31, 2008
VANCOUVER — Vancouver's trendy Yaletown is the sexiest place to live in Canada, according to FastLife.ca, a speed-dating company.
http://www.canada.com/ch/cheknews/news/story.html…
August 13th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
"jesse Says:
Hey, I like action! A premium to live right beside Toyota Place (err… I mean GM Place) so I can watch as the Escalades with tinted windows splash water on me as they go into the underground stadium parking. Not THAT’S action, baby."
jesse, it's too bad that you have been priced out to the point of only being able to afford a carboard box in a parking lot, but really that is your own fault so don't get bitter towards me, ROFL
August 13th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Rob A.
"People will always pay a premium to be close to the action."
Then why isn't Hastings and Main the highest priced neighbourhood in Canada?