Falling like leaves (link-o-rama)

moneyplant.jpgYeah, I know. August is far too early to be using an autumnal metaphor, but housing market cycles don’t run on a regular schedule like the seasons do.  You already know that our local real estate boom has withered on the vine, but did you know markets are slowing across the country?  I guess the big question now is how bad will our housing hangover be?

Anyone looking to sell in the next couple of years has to be hoping we don’t follow the US cycle, where one third of all new owners owe more than their house is worth and a quarter of homes sold in the last year were sold at a loss.  Of course thats on a national level, cities like Stockton California are in much worse shape with prices dropping 38% in one year.

Will demand return to the lower mainland real estate market or will we see modern day ghost towns in the burbs?

If you don’t believe in all this doom n’ gloom perhaps its time to buck the trend and invest in real estate.  Money is still cheap and sometimes big risks bring big rewards.  You could try Spain where prices are predicted to drop 20 to 30% over the next four years, or the UK where there’s lots of listings to choose from.  Some see bright spots in the New Zealand housing market if you want to go a bit further afield. They’re only talking about drops in the 10% range.

Feeling brave?

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Vansanity
Vansanity
12 years ago

Here's a beauty article, filled with statistical info:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/90892-the-great-c

Here's a sample:

“'It is easy to ignore the storm if you look at the opposite horizon. When the storm reaches your location there can be no more ignorance.'

…The 6,000 sq ft McMansion buying, BMW leasing, $5 Starbucks latte drinking, granite countertop upgrading, home equity borrowing days are coming to an end."

LOL!! Love that part!

Probably a bit too chicken little for some on here, but hey, it's the US not Canada! We're totally decoupled from the States, every bull knows that.

blueskies
blueskies
12 years ago

buying an SUV as an investment "vehicle"

financial advice from a sackfullofhammers.com

John
John
12 years ago

I'm diversifying my investments right now. I've bought several different makes of crew cab truck lately for my investments. I've got a ford, gm, and soon nissan. I'm probably going to buy a boat or two in the next few weeks for more diversification. Then I'm off to Regina to scoop up some real estate. I've already got 12 pre-solds in Vancouver ready to go for the big boom.

exx
exx
12 years ago

Housing prices dip nationwide

The malaise in housing is now clearly being felt across most of the country, but nowhere more keenly than Calgary and Edmonton.

In Calgary, the average house home sold in July dipped to $413,371, a 10.1 per cent decline from a year earlier. Sales in Alberta’s largest city also fell 13.1 per cent from a year ago.

Vansanity
Vansanity
12 years ago

http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/article/1… "…Vancouver saw a 24% decline in the number of homes sold through the multiple listing service (MLS) through the first seven months of the year, with prices continuing to climb to an average of $610,306. However, on a month-over-month basis, the number of MLS sales plunged 44% and the average selling price was down by 1.0% to $575,256…" http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/article/1… "…But in some markets, home prices have risen faster than can be justified by economic fundamentals, the report says……In Canada, the forecast is for a moderation in price growth but no downturn, the report says…Canada appears to be less at risk, the report says, because recent house price levels 'appear to be roughly in line with fundamentals.'" The second article says Canada is more in line with fundamentals, as a whole. We all know Vancouver's contribution to the whole of… Read more »

blueskies
blueskies
12 years ago

🙂

http://tinyurl.com/6kyld7

a San Diego developer is offering a "buy one, get one free" deal, pairing million-dollar homes with less expensive homes.

arit
12 years ago

Drachen,

Sorry for the mixup.

Regarding bigfoot, I guess we will know tomorrow….

Will really give a boost to those "Olympics" we will be having – one of the mascots is a Sasquatch.

"Buy a condo in Kelowna with views to the newly discovered Sasquatch habitat"

"Buy a condo in Vancouver before the rich Sasquatch come over and invest in RE"

"Everybody wants to live here, even mythical creatures…"

Regards,

arit

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Arit

That was me, not blueskies. That photo of a wet gorilla costume with chicken guts spread on top is about as convincing as anything the bulls have, I'll give you that.

I like the context of the bigfoot photo too, right above Nazi world war 2 era UFOs that fly using zero point energy and were being used as torsion field generators for purposes of time travel. Strangely enough I actually met a guy once who swore it was true, when asked why there's no proof he said, "Why else do you think the Americans were so eager to recruit all the German scientists!"

blueskies
blueskies
12 years ago

john:

did you hear about the russian billionaire who is interested in buying the Hummer from GM?

would you buy a russian built Hummer?

would you buy the whole company?

i'm assuming you are not a billionaire if all

you can buy is one Titan

bdk
bdk
12 years ago

Browntown, you're right I'll leave the rv and the Titan I'm going to buy from John ,for 30% more than he paid yesterday, at wal mart when I buy at spectrum.

Thanks for the advice you are a thoughtful man.

arit
12 years ago

Blueskies,

"Anyone who thinks the market will be seeing these prices in a few or even in ten years probably also believes in Unicorns, Leprechauns and the Sasquach."

CAREFUL, very careful with those metaphores!!!

"August 13, 2008 – Bigfoot Body Found in Georgia?

DNA and photo evidence to be presented at press conference August 15, 2008"

from: http://www.earthfiles.com/

John
John
12 years ago

Ok you people really are fools if you think it's all over. This market is stronger than a red bull. It's going up up up forever and I've bought plenty to avoid being priced out forever. Went to a Nissan dealer yesterday to put a hold on a bunch of Titans too. I heard they have lots of Titans for now but once they shut down the line then there won't be any left.

browntown
browntown
12 years ago

yeah bdk, you should buy now in canadian dollhairs! maybe even put in lowball offer while other buyers at beach! free advise for you becaause you are blog buddy! spectrum is nice buildings, lots of colour! apparantly not much parking so leave rv at parents home! yeah

bdk
bdk
12 years ago

browntown,

Is it a good time to buy property right now? Which way is the market going and how will the Canadian Dollars decline impact an already stagnant market? How much will a unit at Spectrum sell for next year?

Do you know any other made up quotes from retired Canucks? I find ex professional athletes to be the most well read and intelligent investors out there right after hairstylists and coffee baristas.

Let me know because inquiring minds want to know?

browntown
browntown
12 years ago

hey freako, take time out from trying invent land making machine to come back to blog! bears in desperate need of smart comment!

bdk
bdk
12 years ago

Rain Dancer.

The average cost per sq ft in Manhatten is $1,150

First look at this for the New York prices:

http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/
Or type in your own google search

For verification of the Vancouver Prices go to the MLS and select Coal Harbour from within Vancouver West.

I know fully well that Vancouver is not New York and that's why it's preposterous that prices would be anywhere near them. Common sense indicates a World Trade Center with all sorts of head offices, wall street, corporate headquarters (high paying jobs) and 30 million people trump a small tourism (starbucks, Rob A),forestry and mining town and of course krissh/satv legendary warehouse job that pays 6 figures (if you can't the decimal points).

bcubbins
bcubbins
12 years ago

More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they’re going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units.

I don't understand…why is that bad news??

Anonymous
Anonymous
12 years ago

67VancouverBanker Says:

August 13th, 2008 at 5:23 pm

More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they’re going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units. This a big name player with a long history, I was surprised to hear they’re doing something like this. Fortunately, these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.

Shouldn't they just sell them for whatever they can get? Why hold an investment that will lose value and not generate enough income to justify the cost?

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Blueskies

"a couple of years to 10 years…..

i’d lean to the longer term just ’cause

i’m a bear…."

From the crash of 1981 it took about 20 years for real prices to hit that high again. Every possible fundamental marker shows that we are way deeper in the crap this time around. Anyone who thinks the market will be seeing these prices in a few or even in ten years probably also believes in Unicorns, Leprechauns and the Sasquach.

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Clam Chowderhead

"Good move on the developer, for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit."

Well if you have some numbers I'd love to see them. Otherwise you're making a pretty wild guess here. Especially the part about the market coming around in a few years, that's a knee slapper that is!

blueskies
blueskies
12 years ago

quote 1

these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.

quote 2

for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit.

a couple of years to 10 years…..

i'd lean to the longer term just 'cause

i'm a bear….

Clam Chowderhead
Clam Chowderhead
12 years ago

That's easy that would be Westbank and the South Granville Lofts. It's a great product, very good construction, just in a bad location, and put on the market at a time when everyone wanted new stuff. Good move on the developer, for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit.

VancouverBanker
VancouverBanker
12 years ago

More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they're going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units. This a big name player with a long history, I was surprised to hear they're doing something like this. Fortunately, these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.

thum[b]s down2000
thum[b]s down2000
12 years ago

nice to see that at least one of satv's personalities is still alive and well.

satv, you should sell your shitty spectrum studio as soon as possible. soon its price will be in the five figures range. $89,999 sounds about right.

Thums up2
Thums up2
12 years ago

NO DOWN TURN IN REAL SENSE Vancouver place of action the best place to be,there is no downturn in real sense in decades to come,there is no peak compare to crash 81,only stages takes time to setup new lag then peak switch over to new height after smooth landing,this is a warning for sitting out dum heads and sold out idiots go join r.e.wagon before it leaves the dust(lazybears)behind. In seperate note rents for spectrum jump 100% in four months from previous high and recently rents are threatning dummers to get back to their units before its too late.in another note:$20000 / 5br – LUXURIOUS WATERFRONT HOME-PostingID: 795537687.for this much,more than 6 bears can buy condo worth more than 300k. "In last decade i have purchased few condo those worth double triple than what it cost me at time of… Read more »