Falling like leaves (link-o-rama)
Yeah, I know. August is far too early to be using an autumnal metaphor, but housing market cycles don’t run on a regular schedule like the seasons do. You already know that our local real estate boom has withered on the vine, but did you know markets are slowing across the country? I guess the big question now is how bad will our housing hangover be?
Anyone looking to sell in the next couple of years has to be hoping we don’t follow the US cycle, where one third of all new owners owe more than their house is worth and a quarter of homes sold in the last year were sold at a loss. Of course thats on a national level, cities like Stockton California are in much worse shape with prices dropping 38% in one year.
Will demand return to the lower mainland real estate market or will we see modern day ghost towns in the burbs?
If you don’t believe in all this doom n’ gloom perhaps its time to buck the trend and invest in real estate. Money is still cheap and sometimes big risks bring big rewards. You could try Spain where prices are predicted to drop 20 to 30% over the next four years, or the UK where there’s lots of listings to choose from. Some see bright spots in the New Zealand housing market if you want to go a bit further afield. They’re only talking about drops in the 10% range.
Feeling brave?
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
1
X
Johnny33 Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
“If you don’t believe in all this doom n’ gloom perhaps its time to buck the trend and invest in real estate. You could try Spain where prices are predicted to drop 20 to 30% over the next four years, or the UK where there’s lots of listings to choose from. Some see bright spots in the New Zealand housing market if you want to go a bit further afield. They’re only talking about drops in the 10% range.”
None of those countries are hosting the Olympics in 2010!! Don’t you know that everyone wants to live here, and the people who don’t know about Vancouver will see it during the Olympics and say, “WOW!!! That’s the best place on earth!” Buy before the Olympics of be priced out forever!!!11!!!1!!
2
X
Bob Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
August 2009 prices on condos in Vancouver will drop by 25%.
3
X
Mold City Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Shh! You’ll scare the buyer. If ignorance got us into this mess why can’t it get us out of it?
The #1 threat to america: bears
4
X
Drachen Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
From the Stockton article.
“Stockton’s median home value was put at $216,100″
So at the peak the median home value was $350,000 (at peak). The median household wage in Stockton is $46,919, a ratio of 1.32:1 (V:S) compared to Vancouver’s median wage (ignoring the dollar shift, I’ll compare Real Estate dollars directly too which makes the accounts balance). Yet here the median home value is 620k which means that the home price ratio (comparing Stockton’s peak to our peak) was 1.77:1 (again V:S).
Or to put it another way, our real estate was 32% more overpriced than theirs was at it’s peak (1.77/1.32).
5
X
Limey Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
“Some see bright spots in the New Zealand housing market if you want to go a bit further afield. They’re only talking about drops in the 10% range”
I’m not sure we’re going to get off that lightly – there is a chronic amount of personal debt over here, and since the stock crash in the late 80’s, the vast majority of people’s investment is in RE.
NZ is a very small economic ship that could get battered by the storm. As soon as spring rolls around this year, I think our place will go on the market – it will kill me to get rid of it, but if we decide to leave the country in the next 5 years I’m afraid that we’ll get hammered.
6
X
bdk Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
You guys have forgotten.
Vancouver de coupled from the global economy. Isn’t that right Dosh? It’s different here.
7
X
gah Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
“None of those countries are hosting the Olympics in 2010!!
Uuuh, London has the olymipcs in 2012, and Barcelona just had their olympics a few years ago (and therefore their real estate should be experiencing that buyer boom any time now…)
Bud I do agree, both the UK and Spain are nowhere near as cultured as Vancouver is. We are simply on a completely different level than them.
8
X
exx Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
I heard a new one while having a discussion with a few coworkers yesterday: “The Olympics are going to pull us out of this downward cycle”. Funny – just recently the saying was “Prices will keep going up until the Olympics”. Whatever helps you sleep at night…
9
X
kambool Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
prices are expected to go up this year only by a single digit.
the double digit gains are over.
this is a good time to buy investment properties, since the rents can only go up. (sorry)
10
X
Aleks Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
The Olympics will fix our economy the same way they fixed Greece’s.
But if you want to make a quick buck, invest in Beijing real estate. People are over there discovering it right now so the price is bound to shoot up more every day!
11
X
jesse Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
“our real estate was 32% more overpriced than theirs was at it’s peak”
I’ll bet Vancouver has always been overpriced (as measured by price-income ratio) compared to Stockton. Whatever the reason, cities like Vancouver have perpetually high price-income ratios. I think this was discussed before but it’s interesting that rents in Vancouver are not higher if “everyone wants to live here”.
12
X
jesse Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
“this is a good time to buy investment properties, since the rents can only go up.”
You are implying that prices “can only go up” as well. If they can’t, it’s way better to wait unless rent increases significantly very quickly.
13
X
Anonymous Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Have you seen any nifty marketing techniques lately to get rid off old teardowns or test tube stacks?
Just for a chuckle.. or should I count how much my non RE investment have yielded so far.. sigh..too much work, I lost count.
Yep, I am one of those pain in the ass rich but tightwad investors. Was shaking my head all along this bubble. They all thought it was a winning 6/49 for everybody??? LOL
14
X
VancouverBanker Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Funny, I was just in a meeting this morning with a senior executive: “There is NO WAY Vancouver housing is overpriced by 35%.” This is the same guy who a year and a half ago said prices will keep rising 5% per year, then changed to his tune to prices will level off, and now he says prices will drop 5-10% maximum. I had to keep myself from scoffing out loud!
15
X
blueskies Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
if a person is anticipating rental increases should they move into buying immediately or wait until the actual rent increases show up before deciding to buy……?
16
X
patriotz Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
“Some see bright spots in the New Zealand housing market if you want to go a bit further afield. They’re only talking about drops in the 10% range”
“They” weren’t expecting any price drops at all in NZ two years ago, or in the US, Spain, Ireland, etc., so why should anyone pay any attention to what “they” are predicting now?
17
X
mk-kids Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Kambool says “this is a good time to buy investment properties, since the rents can only go up. (sorry)”
It’s funny because I was looking at craigslist rentals & thinking there seemed to be more moderatelt priced ones. Then I saw this:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....97386.html
18
X
pricedoutfornow Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
The doom and gloom is all around us now. My landlord was over today, again talking about selling. Said they’ve “lost” 30-40k on the value of this place since they moved out in February. Said she wishes they’d sold earlier this year but….”we had no warning whatsoever that the market was going to go down like it has!”
sigh…I guess that’s what happens when you rely on the MSM for your “news”. Most people apparently don’t read blogs like this one. I had to refrain from saying “I could have told you!”
19
X
patriotz Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
this is a good time to buy investment properties, since the rents can only go up.
Rents went up from 1981 to 1984 too but house prices certainly didn’t.
The issue is not whether nominal rents are going up, but whether there is any credible scenario where rents rise enough to justify current prices (cash flow equivalence). There isn’t.
20
X
that guy Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
mk-kids:
too funny. one of those units is in my building. my unit is similar to the one in the ad, but my rent is about half the “reduced” asking price.
ssshh … don’t tell my landlord.
21
X
patriotz Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
I have an important personal message for Roger Corbett: “Don’t mistake a drunken credit binge of epic proportions for strong economic fundamentals. If you do, in a couple of years you will look as foolish as Bernanake does now.”
Mish is talking about Oz, but it is equally relevant to BC.
http://globaleconomicanalysis......ed-by.html
22
X
Bluesman Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Ok, so continuing from the last thread, according to these sites:
1) Canadian debt over past four years
http://tinyurl.com/6bojoz
2)Canadian GDP over past eight years
http://tinyurl.com/6opw78
it appears that our good friend Harper
http://tinyurl.com/9nc6r
has put us into approximately 30% more debt (military spending anyone?) after all that belt tightening we had been through.
So, my question is this: if the economy is getting worse, and if the country is going into more and more debt and it is the citizenry that are going to be the ones paying the debt down in the future, is it better to buy or rent one’s primary residence as compared to say, a situation in which the country is climbing its way out of debt as in the several years preceding 2006?
23
X
Re-diculous Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
The Psychology of boom bust cycles- posted by Squidly on Greater Fool.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
24
X
Michael Randallbard Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
Beijing house prices fall 20% in December
Property
11 January 2008
The average residential real estate prices in Beijing dropped 20% in December 2007, according to China Real Estate Index System, a domest real estate market databank. The average house price in December was US$1,668 per square meter, 19.67% lower than the average price of US$2,077 per sqm seen in November, CCTV reported (in Chinese). Residential prices and transaction volume decreased as a series of regulatory policies aimed at cooling speculative activity in the capital’s property market, including tightened rules for residents buying second homes, went into effect. Beijing residents’ willingness to buy property went down by 7% in the fourth quarter, according to a quarterly survey conducted by the People’s Bank of China.
25
X
Kambool Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:41 am
increasing rents is based on the cap that government has imposed on rent increases (~3% yr)
condos have increased in price way more than this.
26
X
John Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:25 am
I noticed someone was trying to make fun of my optimism. Buying real estate and talking about it on blogs is serious business. I buy and sell real estate, SUVs and boats as investments. It’s going very very well lately. There has never been a better time to buy in this or any other market in the world. I’m looking at a nice condo in Miami next week and I’m going to go check into some of those beautiful homes in Detroit next month.
27
X
bdk Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:46 am
From Greater Fool
But, hopefully, most families will be able to stay where they are, weather the storm and carry on. It’s instructive to realize, however, that anyone who bought a house in 1989 in the Toronto area (the top of the last cycle), had to wait for 13 long years just to break even. And this downturn will certainly be more severe than that one.
28
X
Drachen Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Jesse
“I’ll bet Vancouver has always been overpriced (as measured by price-income ratio) compared to Stockton.”
I think you’d lose that bet, in the mid ’80s the median home price to median income ratio was about 2:1 in Vancouver.
I couldn’t find the Vancouver median family income back into the ’80s but in 1990 it was $60,254 while in 1985 a median home cost around 120k
29
X
bdk Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Hey Jesse,
In the late 1990’s a westside house could be bought for $500,000. and it wasn’t a “down and out” group of people buying for that price.
Which leads this anonymous blogger to wonder “if a Doctor could barely afford a $500k SFH Westside house how are these random warehouse workers ,with brain injuries, paying the same amount for a 1 bedroom on the fringe of the Downtown Eastside (TV Towers)? and not just buying one, buying two in the hopes of selling to a rich asian”
No one wants a cheap house in Edmonton:
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....a42ea5fa85
30
X
patriotz Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:32 am
I think you’d lose that bet, in the mid ’80s the median home price to median income ratio was about 2:1 in Vancouver.
Way off, the median house was about 160K back then and no way was the median household earning 80K, they are only earning 60K now.
More like 4:1 I would say which is the historical multiple for Vancouver, we really have had a higher multiple historically.
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/.....couver.pdf
increasing rents is based on the cap that government has imposed on rent increases (~3% yr)
Wrong, rents have actually been lagging this cap and note that it only applies to sitting tenants and that rent for new tenants is uncontrolled.
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/.....couver.pdf
The reason why rents have been increasing so slowly is simply that supply has been outpacing demand due to high RE prices and low population growth – the same factors which are going to lead to a bust in RE prices.
31
X
Asun Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Is buying this property catching a falling knife?
Will we see similar pricing in Vancouver, say the W condos maybe?
32
X
jesse Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:51 am
“increasing rents is based on the cap that government has imposed on rent increases (~3% yr)”
Fail. Sauder nominal rent data. Never let the facts get in the way… blah blah blah.
33
X
patriotz Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Will we see similar pricing in Vancouver, say the W condos maybe?
Nope, even the worst crapholes in the DTES are rentable and we will see the W condos fall to 100x monthly rent or so.
34
X
bdk Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:27 am
“Nope, even the worst crapholes in the DTES are rentable and we will see the W condos fall to 100x monthly rent or so.”
So units at the W will be worth about $90,000 with parking?
35
X
jesse Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:58 am
“The reason why rents have been increasing so slowly is simply that supply has been outpacing demand due to high RE prices and low population growth”
The reason even beyond that is that investors have been willing to accept low rents because their total return due to capital appreciation is adequate.
36
X
Drachen Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Patriotz
“Way off, the median house was about 160K back then and no way was the median household earning 80K, they are only earning 60K now.”
Your 160k figure, if you look at the bottom of the graph you are using for reference is for detached housing. Including condos brings the median closer to 120k. As I said I couldn’t find a record of median household income for 1985, but considering that it was just over 60k in 1990 and it’s just over 62k now (18 years later) I feel it’s a pretty safe assumption that it was probably just a little under 60k in 1985.
“More like 4:1 I would say which is the historical multiple for Vancouver, we really have had a higher multiple historically.”
You’re saying that between 1985 and 1990 wages doubled in Vancouver? I don’t understand how you get that number even with the (inaccurate) numbers you provided.
37
X
arbitrage Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:29 am
I’ve lost track of all the links to various statistics (eg median family income).
Pope it would be helpful if you added popular data links to the sidebar on the main page. Please?
Anyway, this:
http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/famil107a.htm
Seems to say that med family income in vancouver in 2002 was 53k. Not sure if i’m looking at the right tables. Would appreciate a link repost of the data being discussed.
Man, we’re poor.
38
X
jesse Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:36 am
“I think you’d lose that bet, in the mid ’80s the median home price to median income ratio was about 2:1 in Vancouver.”
I’ll still take the bet. The reason is because the price-income ratio in BC (and Vancouver) has typically been higher than other parts of Canada link. Stockton is landlocked and no reason at all to pay a premium to live there.
Here is a report on median income, in 2000 dollars (see p 19 of 89). I assume you are using real dollars?
39
X
VanTOVan Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Looks like the Sask. RE industry called in a few favours to get this crap refutation of the Merril Lynch report printed:
http://tinyurl.com/stphoenix
My favourite gem:
However, he also disputes the 50 per cent overvaluation number, and points out Merrill Lynch is an investment firm that does not sell real estate.
That’s right–you can only trust someone who’s selling you something.
40
X
arbitrage Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 11:54 am
oh shoot – right real dollars nominal dollars and stuff
I didn’t look in detail at the link i posted.
Jesse, Thanks for the link.
41
X
Bubble Lad Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
There’s a place down on Kit’s point that has a For Sale sign AND a For Rent sign on the front lawn – so you get to move in, pay through the nose (if I know rents in that area) – have strangers walk through your home every five minutes as they try to sell it, then when they sell it you stand a good chance of the new owner telling you to hit the road. Talk about greed AND stupidity.
42
X
Aleks Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
“Here is a report on median income, in 2000 dollars (see p 19 of 89). I assume you are using real dollars?”
Real dollars don’t matter when you’re calculating a ratio, you just have to use the same measure. If you use nominal dollars for wages you have to use nominal dollars for prices and it all works out. Of course, you need data from the same year. Comparing 1985 prices to 1990 wages will give you a skewed result.
Kind of depressing that since 1980, the median family income in Vancouver has gone down $100.
43
X
jesse Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
“If you use nominal dollars for wages you have to use nominal dollars for prices and it all works out.”
Agreed. I was just checking the #s being cited weren’t getting mixed up.
44
X
Rob A. Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I think that right now is a great time to buy, especially in downtown Vancouver. People will always pay a premium to be close to the action. An action premium.
45
X
blueskies Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
People will always pay a premium to be close to the action. An action premium.
unit in our YT bldg just sold
listed $399K
reduced $370K
sold at $349K
73 DOM
500 sq/ft w park/stor 1 bed
46
X
John Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Exactly right Rob!!! Now that GM and Ford are cutting truck and SUV production you’ll also see stiff competition for those used trucks and SUVs. That’s why I’ve been buying them. Supply and demand just like in Real Estate. Everyone wants to buy a condo in Vancouver.
47
X
Patiently Waiting Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
“Kind of depressing that since 1980, the median family income in Vancouver has gone down $100.”
Wait until the housing boom ends
I know young people with university educations who can’t find decent work (non-call centre) paying more than about $12/hr. Many, many, many people in this city make less than $10/hr. Its simply shocking how little some people live on while surviving in some an expensive place.
48
X
jesse Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
“An action premium.”
Hey, I like action! A premium to live right beside Toyota Place (err… I mean GM Place) so I can watch as the Escalades with tinted windows splash water on me as they go into the underground stadium parking. Not THAT’S action, baby.
49
X
Drachen Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Arbitrage
Here is the median wage, 1990 and 2000. (it’s a popup so you have to click on the “Census families median income…”)
Jesse
It’s irrelevant whether you’re using nominal or real dollars as long as you’re internally consistent (for these purposes the results will be identical). In this case it’s nominal dollars to nominal dollars.
50
X
Rob A. Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
“Exactly right Rob!!! Now that GM and Ford are cutting truck and SUV production you’ll also see stiff competition for those used trucks and SUVs. That’s why I’ve been buying them. Supply and demand just like in Real Estate. Everyone wants to buy a condo in Vancouver.”
What exactly is the point you are TRYING to make? lol…
51
X
Drachen Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Rob A.
“People will always pay a premium to be close to the action.”
Then why isn’t Hastings and Main the highest priced neighbourhood in Canada?
52
X
Rob A. Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
“jesse Says:
Hey, I like action! A premium to live right beside Toyota Place (err… I mean GM Place) so I can watch as the Escalades with tinted windows splash water on me as they go into the underground stadium parking. Not THAT’S action, baby.”
jesse, it’s too bad that you have been priced out to the point of only being able to afford a carboard box in a parking lot, but really that is your own fault so don’t get bitter towards me, ROFL
53
X
Rob A. Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Yaletown sexiest place in Canada
Vancouver neighbourhood top choice among speed-dating clients: survey
John Colebourn, Canwest News Service
Published: Thursday, July 31, 2008
VANCOUVER — Vancouver’s trendy Yaletown is the sexiest place to live in Canada, according to FastLife.ca, a speed-dating company.
http://www.canada.com/ch/chekn.....cc7a8b92d8
54
X
macchiato Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
News from Ireland, prices dropping for over a year now and this is the latest:
http://tinyurl.com/ireland-minus-40
55
X
jesse Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
“In this case it’s nominal dollars to nominal dollars.”
Drachen, just to be clear, the link you posted to Arbitrage cites 1990 median incomes in constant 2000 dollars.
56
X
jesse Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
“but really that is your own fault so don’t get bitter towards me,”
Oh you were serious? I thought you were making a joke. My mistake and sorry you took issue.
57
X
bdk Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
So Rob a and John are different personas?
You’re both right, get out there and buy an Expedition and a studio at spectrum as soon as you can.
How can you go wrong? The market is clearly going up forever and it makes sense that Downtown Vancouver is more expensive than New York. There is simply no action in New York compared to Vancouver
58
X
bdk Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
and rob a
You claimed you were relocated to the Toronto Starbucks what happened there?
59
X
Mold City Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Hey Rob A, Are you still in Vancouver? I’m curious if you made a good profit on the sale of your condo.. It’s been months since you put it on the market, surely in the hot downtown core its sold at a premium by now right?
Are you planning on being in Toronto by the fall? That’s the best time of year there IMHO.
60
X
scullboy Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Mold,
Believe it or not Spring and Fall are now the best times to be in Toronto. Toronto’s stinkin’ hot (and I do mean stinkin’) in summer and brutally cold in winter.
Oh the other hand they know they aren’t the best place on earth…
61
X
Anonymous Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Something’s up with your site…
…
62
X
Rain Dancer Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Downtown Vancouver is more expensive than [Doiwntown] New York…
Anybody who thinks Yaletown or Coal Harbor are more expensive than Manhattan needs to have their head examined. Ditto for anybody (trying to) compare Yaletown or Coal Harbor to suburban NYC.
Seriously, the market is turning just fine on its own, pointless fruits-to-vegetables comparisons like those don’t make any case other than bears can be as data-selective as bulls.
63
X
The Pope Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Thanks anon, I’m just doing some tweaking.. temporarily broke something. It should be all back to normal now.
64
X
Mold City Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Scullboy – Believe it or not I wasn’t being facetious. I love Toronto in the autumn, they get a great big show of color in the trees that you just don’t see here. That and there’s a real variety of nightlife and stuff going on in the downtown core. I try to get out there to visit family in the fall whenever I can.
65
X
Thums up2 Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
NO DOWN TURN IN REAL SENSE
Vancouver place of action the best place to be,there is no downturn in real sense in decades to come,there is no peak compare to crash 81,only stages takes time to setup new lag then peak switch over to new height after smooth landing,this is a warning for sitting out dum heads and sold out idiots go join r.e.wagon before it leaves the dust(lazybears)behind.
In seperate note rents for spectrum jump 100% in four months from previous high and recently rents are threatning dummers to get back to their units before its too late.in another note:$20000 / 5br – LUXURIOUS WATERFRONT HOME-PostingID: 795537687.for this much,more than 6 bears can buy condo worth more than 300k.
“In last decade i have purchased few condo those worth double triple than what it cost me at time of purchase,now i don’t have to work hard to win stanley for my city i have announced my early retirement earlier while smart buyers and fool sellers will be countinue….”-Trevor Linden
66
X
thum[b]s down2000 Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
nice to see that at least one of satv’s personalities is still alive and well.
satv, you should sell your shitty spectrum studio as soon as possible. soon its price will be in the five figures range. $89,999 sounds about right.
67
X
VancouverBanker Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they’re going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units. This a big name player with a long history, I was surprised to hear they’re doing something like this. Fortunately, these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.
68
X
Clam Chowderhead Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
That’s easy that would be Westbank and the South Granville Lofts. It’s a great product, very good construction, just in a bad location, and put on the market at a time when everyone wanted new stuff. Good move on the developer, for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit.
69
X
blueskies Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
quote 1
these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.
quote 2
for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit.
a couple of years to 10 years…..
i’d lean to the longer term just ’cause
i’m a bear….
70
X
Drachen Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Clam Chowderhead
“Good move on the developer, for the price they paid it will rent cash flow positive and when the market comes around in a couple of years they can sell at a profit.”
Well if you have some numbers I’d love to see them. Otherwise you’re making a pretty wild guess here. Especially the part about the market coming around in a few years, that’s a knee slapper that is!
71
X
Drachen Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Blueskies
“a couple of years to 10 years…..
i’d lean to the longer term just ’cause
i’m a bear….”
From the crash of 1981 it took about 20 years for real prices to hit that high again. Every possible fundamental marker shows that we are way deeper in the crap this time around. Anyone who thinks the market will be seeing these prices in a few or even in ten years probably also believes in Unicorns, Leprechauns and the Sasquach.
72
X
Anonymous Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
67VancouverBanker Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they’re going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units. This a big name player with a long history, I was surprised to hear they’re doing something like this. Fortunately, these guys have been around forever and have the money to hold on to these things until prices come back in a decade.
Shouldn’t they just sell them for whatever they can get? Why hold an investment that will lose value and not generate enough income to justify the cost?
73
X
bcubbins Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
More bad news today: just heard a top-tier developer did a condo conversion and is now having trouble to sell the units, so they’re going to stop selling and keep the rest as rental units.
I don’t understand…why is that bad news??
74
X
bdk Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Rain Dancer.
The average cost per sq ft in Manhatten is $1,150
First look at this for the New York prices:
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/
Or type in your own google search
For verification of the Vancouver Prices go to the MLS and select Coal Harbour from within Vancouver West.
I know fully well that Vancouver is not New York and that’s why it’s preposterous that prices would be anywhere near them. Common sense indicates a World Trade Center with all sorts of head offices, wall street, corporate headquarters (high paying jobs) and 30 million people trump a small tourism (starbucks, Rob A),forestry and mining town and of course krissh/satv legendary warehouse job that pays 6 figures (if you can’t the decimal points).
75
X
browntown Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
hey freako, take time out from trying invent land making machine to come back to blog! bears in desperate need of smart comment!
76
X
bdk Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
browntown,
Is it a good time to buy property right now? Which way is the market going and how will the Canadian Dollars decline impact an already stagnant market? How much will a unit at Spectrum sell for next year?
Do you know any other made up quotes from retired Canucks? I find ex professional athletes to be the most well read and intelligent investors out there right after hairstylists and coffee baristas.
Let me know because inquiring minds want to know?
77
X
browntown Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 7:16 am
yeah bdk, you should buy now in canadian dollhairs! maybe even put in lowball offer while other buyers at beach! free advise for you becaause you are blog buddy! spectrum is nice buildings, lots of colour! apparantly not much parking so leave rv at parents home! yeah
78
X
John Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Ok you people really are fools if you think it’s all over. This market is stronger than a red bull. It’s going up up up forever and I’ve bought plenty to avoid being priced out forever. Went to a Nissan dealer yesterday to put a hold on a bunch of Titans too. I heard they have lots of Titans for now but once they shut down the line then there won’t be any left.
79
X
arit Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Blueskies,
“Anyone who thinks the market will be seeing these prices in a few or even in ten years probably also believes in Unicorns, Leprechauns and the Sasquach.”
CAREFUL, very careful with those metaphores!!!
“August 13, 2008 – Bigfoot Body Found in Georgia?
DNA and photo evidence to be presented at press conference August 15, 2008″
from: http://www.earthfiles.com/
80
X
bdk Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Browntown, you’re right I’ll leave the rv and the Titan I’m going to buy from John ,for 30% more than he paid yesterday, at wal mart when I buy at spectrum.
Thanks for the advice you are a thoughtful man.
81
X
blueskies Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 9:15 am
john:
did you hear about the russian billionaire who is interested in buying the Hummer from GM?
would you buy a russian built Hummer?
would you buy the whole company?
i’m assuming you are not a billionaire if all
you can buy is one Titan
82
X
Drachen Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Arit
That was me, not blueskies. That photo of a wet gorilla costume with chicken guts spread on top is about as convincing as anything the bulls have, I’ll give you that.
I like the context of the bigfoot photo too, right above Nazi world war 2 era UFOs that fly using zero point energy and were being used as torsion field generators for purposes of time travel. Strangely enough I actually met a guy once who swore it was true, when asked why there’s no proof he said, “Why else do you think the Americans were so eager to recruit all the German scientists!”
83
X
arit Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Drachen,
Sorry for the mixup.
Regarding bigfoot, I guess we will know tomorrow….
Will really give a boost to those “Olympics” we will be having – one of the mascots is a Sasquatch.
“Buy a condo in Kelowna with views to the newly discovered Sasquatch habitat”
“Buy a condo in Vancouver before the rich Sasquatch come over and invest in RE”
“Everybody wants to live here, even mythical creatures…”
Regards,
arit
84
X
blueskies Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 9:41 am
http://tinyurl.com/6kyld7
a San Diego developer is offering a “buy one, get one free” deal, pairing million-dollar homes with less expensive homes.
85
X
Vansanity Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 10:59 am
http://www.economicnews.ca/cep.....cle/108788
“…Vancouver saw a 24% decline in the number of homes sold through the multiple listing service (MLS) through the first seven months of the year, with prices continuing to climb to an average of $610,306. However, on a month-over-month basis, the number of MLS sales plunged 44% and the average selling price was down by 1.0% to $575,256…”
http://www.economicnews.ca/cep.....cle/108760
“…But in some markets, home prices have risen faster than can be justified by economic fundamentals, the report says……In Canada, the forecast is for a moderation in price growth but no downturn, the report says…Canada appears to be less at risk, the report says, because recent house price levels ‘appear to be roughly in line with fundamentals.’”
The second article says Canada is more in line with fundamentals, as a whole. We all know Vancouver’s contribution to the whole of Canada in this record.
I think next year after the completion of many of the mega-projects and more condos, the glut of inventory will be huge. The profit margins are being erased for flippers and developers. If interest rates go up it will be the “perfect storm”. If that happens Shiller will once again be able to say he called it when he said Vancouver was one of the bubbliest cities in the World.
86
X
exx Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Housing prices dip nationwide
The malaise in housing is now clearly being felt across most of the country, but nowhere more keenly than Calgary and Edmonton.
In Calgary, the average house home sold in July dipped to $413,371, a 10.1 per cent decline from a year earlier. Sales in Alberta’s largest city also fell 13.1 per cent from a year ago.
87
X
John Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 11:08 am
I’m diversifying my investments right now. I’ve bought several different makes of crew cab truck lately for my investments. I’ve got a ford, gm, and soon nissan. I’m probably going to buy a boat or two in the next few weeks for more diversification. Then I’m off to Regina to scoop up some real estate. I’ve already got 12 pre-solds in Vancouver ready to go for the big boom.
88
X
blueskies Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 11:57 am
buying an SUV as an investment “vehicle”
financial advice from a sackfullofhammers.com
89
X
Vansanity Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Here’s a beauty article, filled with statistical info:
http://seekingalpha.com/articl.....sh-of-2009
Here’s a sample:
“’It is easy to ignore the storm if you look at the opposite horizon. When the storm reaches your location there can be no more ignorance.’
…The 6,000 sq ft McMansion buying, BMW leasing, $5 Starbucks latte drinking, granite countertop upgrading, home equity borrowing days are coming to an end.”
LOL!! Love that part!
Probably a bit too chicken little for some on here, but hey, it’s the US not Canada! We’re totally decoupled from the States, every bull knows that.