Friday Free-for-all!
It’s Friday again and that means its time for another open topic friday free-for-all post. Here are a few stories from the week:
-Merrill Lynch: Vancouver houses 35% overvalued
-Van west median house sales price drops $298,500 since Feb
-Building permits take a plunge in BC
-BC economy losing some zip
-Revisiting the great Canadian housing myth
-Expensive? Just split the house down the middle
-Floating condos, just like Florida
-Want to talk about your money & retirement?
-US Stimulus effect fades quickly
So what are you seeing out there? Is it a good time to buy or sell? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!
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Vansanity Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Lots of good reading there.
I discussed the stupidity of overpaying for an object/investment with a friend tonight. People only over pay when they truly believe that the price/value in the object they are buying will ONLY go up. When you break it down like that, God, it sounds so IGNORANT!
Watching this cycle truck along and everyone’s reaction to media, rhetoric, spin, propoganda, you name it, just reassures me that there is an Unthinking Majority in our society. Just like Serj Tankian sang about.
Here’s a youtube link in case you too are just tired of reading, take a break: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEV_1xD8msk
BTW – I also recommend “Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition”. Cheers!
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Clarke Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 5:40 am
I wonder what data sample Merill Lynch used behind their conclusion that Vancouver housing prices are 35% overvalued? Based on Mohican’s fair value P/E formula, most condos and houses in my neighbourhood easily could be argued to be around 50% overvalued.
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Re-diculous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 6:38 am
How refreshing, after many years, to pick up the morning paper and see the headline “Housing slump stalks Western Canada” instead of yet another bullish RE report. I thought I was losing my mind a couple of years ago and therefore view headlines like todays as very therapeutic.
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Vansanity Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 6:58 am
55,000 jobs lost in Canada, biggest drop since 1991
http://www.bnn.ca/news/2660.html
Mostly Ontario and Quebec and 48,000 of them were part-time. Nonetheless, the drop is substantial.
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Re-diculous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 7:09 am
And another…
Vancouver’s Housing Hangover
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....Blogs/home
some snipits:
“The likely result? A small price drop in the short term combined with a steep drop in sales volume, followed by a second wave of a bigger decline in prices as sellers finally capitulate. The Lower Mainland’s housing market looks to have been hit by the first, and headed for the second.”
“B.C.’s housing market woes are no Great Depression, but coming as they do on top of high energy prices, a wobbling forestry sector, and the lowest level of consumer confidence in a half decade, they may qualify as the Pretty Big Hangover.”
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John Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Vancouver’s market is sustained by the belief in the best place on earth. This is the land of rainbow colored gum drops of joy and luxury condos which rich asians enjoy. The liquid sunshine that we get year round is probably one of the most enjoyable aspects of this paradise.
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crabman Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 8:45 am
The value of building permits issued to contractors in British Columbia dropped by almost 22 per cent over the first half of 2008 compared with 2007.
This will translate to a 22% reduction in the construction workforce over the next few years. During this housing boom, the unemployment rate dropped from ~8% to around ~5% in Vancouver – almost entirely due to construction. When this is over, what’s to stop the rate from going back up to 8%?
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John Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 8:49 am
When this is over, what’s to stop the rate from going back up to 8%?
The olympics.
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crabman Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 8:55 am
The olympics.
Just kidding, right? They will be over too. (Only 1 1/2 years away)
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Dave Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 8:58 am
This will translate to a 22% reduction in the construction workforce over the next few years.
No it won’t. It will be a welcome relief to most developers and most workers in construction.
Everybody has been working crazy hours and there has been a shortage of skilled labour. I think permits have to drop a lot further for there to be significant job loss implications. Let’s also not forget that there is a massive amount of work already on the books and a massive amount of infrastructure spending that doesn’t show up in those stats.
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Drachen Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Dave
I’m not even going to bother shooting you down all the time any more. We’ve been saying the sun would rise again and there’s the horizon beginning to get lighter by the minute but Dave is in his corner, eyes firmly closed, fingers in his ears saying, “If I don’t see it it’s not happening!” over and over, rocking back and forth like an autistic child.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Dave your lack of insight is astounding if not disturbing.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Classic. They’ve been using the ‘infrastructure’ argument in Ireland and the UK as their construction industry collapses too. I love the idea that a house builder can finish drywalling a condo one day and start laying highways the next.
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blueskies Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:36 am
a house builder can finish drywalling a condo one day and start laying highways the next.
some of the construction finishing i’ve seen strikes as just the reverse of this
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Vansanity Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Dave’s pulling a John, right? LOL! Must be!
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betamax Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:43 am
No it won’t. It will be a welcome relief to most developers and most workers in construction.
LMAO. Yes, those bubble-inflated profit margins and paycheques are such a pain to deal with. It’ll be a welcome relief to make a lot less money.
Enjoy your paycut!
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John Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Listen listen listen here. Meryl Lynch is not exactly a reliable source on anything financially related, just look at their share price. This market is challenging right now but it’s just due to the spectacular weather. Once the rains start in September the real estate market will heat up again. I’m going to Squamish this weekend to try and find some good deals on some condos. Rich asians love Squamish for the wind surfing, mountain biking and the olympics.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Read this great piece over on Dave and Julie’s site:
One of the first questions you’ll ask yourself when you are looking at a new property to purchase is: What is this property worth? That is a different question then (sic): How much can I pay? And it’s still different then (sic): What can I get this property for? But all of those questions need answers before you put in an offer to purchase a new property.
I can only hope that standards have improved at UVIC and York since the highly educated duo received their degrees.
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rx Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Anonymous, that seems like reasonable advice to me. Maybe you just think its completely obvious, but I’d say that the only question many people ask themselves during a boom is ‘how much can I pay’, which the banks and CMHC did as much as possible to stretch. The quote you posted seems like a sensible reminder that just because you are willing to overpay for a property doesn’t mean its actually worth it.
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Bluesman Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Anonymous: I think rx is more out-to-lunch then (sic) Dave and Julie.
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Mr. Simpleton Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:35 am
This blog is amazing…
John, Dave, RX… are you guys for real???
Quote from Austin Powers:
“why must I be surrounded by IDIOTS???”
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parbapapa Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:39 am
You should never estimate people’s stupidity.
That is after all what makes this city unique.
The incredibly high number of stupid, greedy and uneducated people around here is what made this bubble possible.
Gasp!
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:40 am
A lot of bag wannabe mortgage brokers, like Dave, will have to go back to working as valets and parking attendants
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parbapapa Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:40 am
That was supposed to read: you should never underestimate…
My bad!
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Dave is clearly too stupid to do anything else
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:42 am
At first I thought John was a skilled joker, but I’m really not so sure anymore. Any thoughts on this?
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rx Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Some of you sure are quick to judge. Other people must be really tough to deal with when you’ve got no flaws huh? So other than the then/than errors you’re picking on what was so wrong about the sentiment in that paragraph?
.. or are we down to attacking spelling and grammar rather than content?
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Matt Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Rich asians love mountain biking and windsurfing since when?
Rich asians love cock fights, massage parlours and beating their filipina maids.
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rx Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:49 am
John is clearly a joker.
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Bluesman Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Rx: Have you ever heard of the expression “The media is the message”?
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Drachen Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Mr Simpleton
John = Joker, 100%
Dave = Serious, although I doubt he believes much of what he says, it seems he has some ulterior motive for posting here.
RX = I don’t see what you guys have against him? I think that advice on David and Julie’s blog is excellent. I just think that if they’re purchasing places now they are either disregarding their own advice or they’re completely incapable of calculating fundamental value. However you should really be asking all of those questions (obviously if you cannot pay, no deal, if what you can get the property for is greater than what it’s worth, no deal). He phrases it very poorly but the essential idea is correct.
I do find it sad however that someone who’s been (supposedly?) university educated does not know the difference between, ‘then’, and ‘than’.
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blueskies Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Some of you sure are quick to judge.
it’s hard to be humble when you are perfect!
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crabman Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:05 am
It sure seems like satv/krissh/thumbsup has conditioned people to attack anything slightly bullish?
Dave is very knowledgeable but overly optimistic and due for a rude awakening IMO ;^). John is just goofing around, and RX’s comment seemed completely reasonable.
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VancouverGuy Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Dave is not a stupid guy. He disagrees with us, but he is not stupid. I’m sure the bulls called bears idiots a few years ago.
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ROCK Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Dave, your comment about the drop in building permits to be a welcome relief for developers and builders is incorrect. Builders will continue to build at a frantic pace because they will squeeze out every last dollar they can – it’s every man for himself. That’s why building got so frienzied in the first place. They have deadlines and contracts to finish.
However, with building slowing, I do expect that what is built, will be (should be) of higher quality. That said, expect layoffs of a large percentage of the construction workforce regardless. This will augment the growth in foreclosures.
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rx Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Thanks Drachen and Crabman, good points. I guess the blood in the water has some bears acting like sharks. My guess is Dave (the original, not revnyou dave) works in some capacity in the industry and really wants to believe what he writes. you’re not Dave Watt are you?
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beta Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:25 am
The purchasing advice on Dave’s blog is simplistic “Buying for Dummies”, so obvious it shouldn’t need to be said.
rx’s justification of it — i.e. that many people are either ignorant or idiots or both — isn’t unreasonable, but it ignores the fact that such people have no business investing in highly leveraged assets. Anyone who needs such advice shouldn’t be buying, and the fact that they are and have been in large numbers is just a further instance of bubble-crazed fools rushing in.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Whoa! Fannie Mae lost three times the wall street estimate. $2.3 billion here and there eventually adds up to real money:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087869/
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Bluesman Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:28 am
“I guess the blood in the water has some bears acting like sharks.”
I feel judged…
Just joking!
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rx Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:32 am
beta – without the idiots there would be no bubble. Just because they ’shouldn’t be buying’ doesn’t magically make them go away. Call me an optimist, but I believe idiots can learn and hopefully future instances of idiocy can be avoided.
Or do you believe that if YOU already know something its no longer worth saying to others? Sounds like a recipe for an increase in future idiots to me.
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John Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
The thing is that investing in real estate in Vancouver is a sure thing so even the most foolish will always win. That’s what’s so great about this system. Vancouver is like the city on the hill and everyone in the world wants to come here to make millions. It’s really special.
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bdk Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Dave and Rev n you Dave is one and the same, he just accidentally put his email in the website box because he was so busy posting on several blogs at once he screwed up.
When his Wife saw this she jumped in and tried to claim it wasn’t him and then he denied it like Bill Clinton denied having sexual relations with that woman. Who else has a vested interest in trying to keep the Vancouver Condo market alive? He’s suggesting that a slowdown in construction is good. This means incomes will drop for workers and the developers will be on the hook for land that they overpaid for and realtors who’ve dabbled in development are going to go bust.
How could that be good? I don’t know one realtor (and I know at least 100) who’s excited about making 50% of what they made last year.
The plus side is they can hop from one blog to the next in the hopes of somehow averting the catastrophy that will be real estate for decades to come.
Who else would repeatedly try to prop up the market?
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:44 am
“special” being a synonym for …?
Oh! I know! How politically correct of you.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:45 am
BDK is Bill Good just goofing around, he admitted it in the previous thread.
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blueskies Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Vancouver is like the city on the hill
…and everything rolls downhill from there….. we.are.truly.screwed.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:48 am
bdk I think you’re barking up the wrong tree. No way there’s only one Dave valiantly trying to prop up the market, and even if it was the same person who cares? We know there are plenty of hucksters and used car salesmen trying to squeeze money out of the few remaining fools before ‘real estate’ becomes a dirty word in Vancouver.
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bdk Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Oh what am I saying, Johns right.
Attention anyone who makes $200,000 or more per year.
Hurrty up and buy now because next year a slew of people who make $300,000 per year will swoop in and buy your condo for 50% more than you paid.
What’s this?
You would rather rent it for 30% of the cost of mortgaging it and invest it in foreign equity while the Canadian Dollar is strong and the indexes are all low?
Read what John said above and get out there and buy!!!
What’s sad is that if an average person were to go to a brokerage in the hopes of opening a highly leveraged brokerage account buying nothing but oil futures the broker wouldn’t be allowed to let him take out $800,000 simply because he’d heard that “Oil only goes up” “It’s different this time” or the best one yet “the olympics!”
On the other hand any schmuck can walk in to a display suite and put 10% down on a condo future/assignment and then sit back and wait for the money to roll in, the salesman said it was a good idea? what’s the problem.
The salesman didn’t buy one for himself and gets a comission but he’s clearly got my best interests at heart, his website even says so!
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BBY Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
I just realized that our 2010 Olympics just might be quite an embarrassment for us, when compared to the culturally rich and amazing ceremonies of Torino and, now, Beijing. I don’t see how we can even approach a comparable level; we don’t have a deep cultural heritage to draw upon like China and Beijing. We’ve got a hodge-podge cultural mix that not only we understand. And I’m sorry, but I’ve never been spellbound by any of our indigenous First Nations ceremonies; the subdued First Nations drum blessing at the end of the spectacular Torino closing ceremonies produced an awkward silence from the crowd. And don’t even get me started on how horrid the rest of our Canadian contribution was at the close; the montreal agency that produced that crap should be sued.
I mean really, what recognizable cultural show can we produce for 2010?
Oh wait, I know! Bob Rennie can try to hawk some condos. Holy crap! this could be a Condo Hyping extravaganza like no other time-share presentation know to man. That’s what we’re good at! That’s it! We already have the machinations and talent to do this. In this we are truly world class. By then, we will be the bubbliest RE city that the world has known. The world will look and gasp in amazement. At the irony of it all.
And at the end of the 2010 Olympics, the olympic caravan will evacuate the red-faced global-village of Vancouver leaving landlords — amateur and commercial — crying out for tenants as they bleed their mortgage payments to the banks.
All this, just when you thought the 2 year decline in RE prices that started in 2008 would be over.
Vancouver RE will be kicked when it’s down like no other market has been kicked.
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John Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Vancouver is probably one of the most cultural cities in the world. Just walk down Robson street and you’ll see what I mean. The olympics in 2010 will be the best ever put on by any country in the world. It will be something everyone talks about for years to come.
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Drachen Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
“The olympics in 2010 will be the best ever put on by any country in the world. It will be something everyone talks about for years to come.”
There’s only one Olympics that really stands out in history. Are you saying that the Vancouver Olympics will be remembered as the Munich Olympics of the new century?
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nothing new under the sun Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Classic. They’ve been using the ‘infrastructure’ argument in Ireland and the UK as their construction industry collapses too. I love the idea that a house builder can finish drywalling a condo one day and start laying highways the next.
All of the arguments in support of Vancouver’s real estate market are recycled. Nothing new under the sun. The reality of elsewhere will also be recycled here …. snap, crackle, pop … not a breakfast cereal but a description of the impending Vancouver real estate crash.
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Speaking of olympics, I think way to many people around here have “winter games” confused with OLYMPICS. Winter games is all that we have. Nothing more.
Ask anyone on the street today (how about your oh-so-cultural Robson st.) and ask people what Nagano or Lillehammer is (Jay Leno-style.
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Dave Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Dave, your comment about the drop in building permits to be a welcome relief for developers and builders is incorrect.
I don’t agree. In the past few years, developers have had a very difficult time keeping their projects on schedule and on-budget. A big part of delays has been due to shortage of skilled trades, partly due to high construction activity.
As you rightly say, developers will still continue forward and keep building. The ones that continue to do so will benefit from more labour being available.
As far as labour goes, you can only work 60, 70 or 80 hours a week for so many years. A lot of people in the trades have been turning work down so that they can actually have a life and not work every weekend. But, not everybody can turn work down because the developers expect people to work long hours to try and keep things on schedule. I think a lot of people will be happy to see a little bit of relief, while still being able to work a decent number of hours.
As far as layoffs go, you really should look into the demographics for some of the trades. For example, do you know what the average age of a bricklayer is? A big percentage of people in the trades are near or past retirement age. Not enough young people have been entering some trades and it has a LOT of people seriously concerned, if not scared. A slowdown will benefit the trades that have unfavourable demographics.
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Dave,
I have several major construction projects going on in my neighborhood and nobody works there on the weekend.
In fact they’re done shortly after 3pm every day during the week too.
Please check your facts.
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Dave Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
No big projects on the books, hey?
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/pubs/pr_mproj.asp
This issue of the BC Major Projects Inventory lists 60 proposed new projects over $15 million reported for the first quarter of 2008, with available capital cost estimates totaling approximately $10.5 billion in potential new capital investment, if all the projects proceed. The list of proposed projects that are new to the MPI includes the $3.1 billion Skytrain Expansion Expo Line in Surrey, the
proposed $2 billion Bute Inlet Hydroelectric projects in the Vancouver Island region, and the $1 billion Roundhouse Mixed Use Development in Victoria. Twenty-six major projects started construction in the first quarter, valued at approximately $3.4 billion. Of note are the $1.5
billion Lakestone Resort Development in Lake Country, Okanagan Region, and the $600 million Dokie Wind Farm project near Chetwynd in the Northeast Region.
The available capital cost of all proposed projects listed in the MPI is estimated at approximately $91.2 billion, up from $75.2 billion last quarter.
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Aleks Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
There’s a condo project on my way to work that never has anyone working on it.
Of course, that’s because they’re having trouble finding financing, but that’s similar to a worker shortage.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Not enough young people have been entering some trades and it has a LOT of people seriously concerned, if not scared.
“They” were saying the same thing about programmers and other tech trades during the dot com boom, know how many jobs there were for entry to mid level programmers and techs after the bubble burst? The supply of talent in the pipeline spurred on by the bubble lead to a massive flood of qualified techies at exactly the wrong time. Same thing will happen with tradespeople, RE agents, mortgage brokers, interior decorators, landscapers, architects, mom and pop developers (hello!) etc…
Dave have a look at some news stories from Florida, California, Nevada, Arizona, etc… and see what happened to their construction trades person shortages after prices started falling. Then get back to me. Otherwise take your dog and pony show elsewhere, like RET. This blog has discredited the garbage you’re spewing years ago.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
if all the projects proceed
That’s a pretty big if…
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bdk Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....Blogs/home
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Is Dave just SATV using a first year college grad version of Babel Fish?
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bdk Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Dave could be SATV. It’s funny that Dave started posting and Thums disappeared.
Source, Dave, Satv what’s the difference?
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crabman Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
I’m beginning to think Dave is Satv! So he was just messing with us this whole time! Nice job Dave/satv/krissh/thumbsup!!!
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Vansanity Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Oh come on conspiracy theorists! There’s plenty of people that disagree with us…us being those who are looking at this market through “Bear Goggles”(c). Or through the “Bearview Mirror” also (copywritten).
I could probably list another 50 koolaid chuggers that I talk to weekly…even as the facts mount against them. Moulder to Scully – “They’re out there”.
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Anonymous Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
I would have to say the general public still doesn’t get it. Most lay people I talk to now regarding real estate, state it is a good time to buy, prices stopped rising, will drop slightly, why don’t you buy!
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Partisan Spectator Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Dave,
I beg pardon, but could not resist. In your post #53 you mentioned a bricklayer trade. Does it still exist? My eyes tell me it vanished years ago as atavism. Could you please publish the job description and other facts? Just curious.
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Donk Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
I am enjoying the ‘attack dave’ motif of this blog, so here’s my bit:
Those examples of upcoming construction projects are all pie in the sky. For example, the proponent of the “proposed $2 billion Bute Inlet Hydroelectric projects” do not even have power purchase agreements in place, let alone project financing. And that Surrey skytrain expansion would supposedly be completed in 2020!
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Greely Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
I think John has alot of insightful things to say, and I conquer wholeheardedly with many of his points.
Once the world gets ahold of those cuddly little Olympic mascots, they will flock here in droves hoping to catch a glimpse of any other treasures our beautiful province has to offer…who knows, maybe a Bigfoot sighting or two!
How many places in the world can you buy a fresh salmon off a boat then walk 2 blocks and take it to a laser light show. Just the other day in Stanley Park, I saw several geese, a whole flock of ducks, some crows, a bunch of squirrels and a turtle…all in one walk!
This place has got it all, and its a wonder RE isn’t worth even more than it currently is!
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Just saying Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 2:02 am
I can’t wait for the Olympics to be over so we can put that myth to rest. Instead of buying overpriced tickets I think I’ll go to Mexico for a while and come back when it’s all over (and forgotten).
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macchiato Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 2:09 am
“I conquer wholeheardedly with many of his points”
I think you mean:
I concur wholeheardedly …
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Greely Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Actually I take alot of John’s ideas with me to war and use them to overtake small countries….thanks for the correction Macchiato.
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alexcanuck Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Talking about RE market corrections is soo.o.o.o slow and boring. Other corrections are faster.
I think you mean:
I concur wholeheardedly …
Would that indicate you heard his point clearly? As opposed to spinmeisters who concur holeheardedly by taking one soundbite out of context and quoting it ad nauseam? Or perhaps holyheartly, that religious fervor that some true believers have to the infinite appreciation of their 10 presales?
Just a bit of groggy morning fun, the phrase is “concur wholeheartedly”, and “conquer wholeheartedly” shall be reserved for when we buy again, after the inevitable correction/crash.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 10:13 am
i came, i saw, i conquered……
http://tinyurl.com/realestatecrunch
No one wants to be the bearer of doom and gloom, or the one to create a self-fulfilling prophecy, but the cautionary whispers heard only a month or two ago have turned into frank talk about a different world that is unfolding.
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Drachen Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 10:25 am
blueskies
Funny, I heard not only cautionary whispers but also a good deal of frank talk about the future of Real Estate here two years ago. They should really change their business from “newspaper” to “oldspaper” if they can’t report on events until several months after the fact and they then pretend there were no warnings.
The rest of the article (his reasons why we won’t suffer a total collapse) has mostly been contradicted in other articles published in the Sun and the Provence recently (and reported here and on other blogs years ago). He either doesn’t read the newspaper or he’s completely OK with lying through his teeth (fingernails?).
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Re-diculous Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Drachen
They should really change their business from “newspaper” to “oldspaper” if they can’t report on events until several months after the fact and they then pretend there were no warnings….excellent point!
Blueskies
I’m not able to open ypur link in 72…is it just me?
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Anonymous Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 11:26 am
From Blueskies’ article:
Bob Ransford is a public affairs consultant with CounterPoint Communications Inc.
He is a former real estate developer who specializes in urban land use issues. E-mail: ransford@counterpoint.ca
So a PR expert from a crisis management firm is writing for the RE Marketing section of the Sun now? Whodathunkit?
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 11:29 am
re-di:
i just checked and it works
mebbe a MSM conspiracy to keep
the sheeple in the dark…..
trust no one
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Donk Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Re: http://tinyurl.com/realestatecrunch
The author doen’t seem like the kind of person that would write a balanced article on the subject. His company specializes in communications and he calls himself an “ex developer”, but his clients are probably devlopers for whom he lobbies municipal governments on their behalf. Is he going to write something doomish that might alarm his clent base? No, he writes:
“Will it all spell a crash for residential real estate in Vancouver? Probably not.”
It’s typical of BC media.
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Donk Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
A more interesting read was last week’s economist. Nothing really new, but at least no pandering.
http://deathbyperogies.freeweb.....Aug.08.jpg
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Blair Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
BBY has got it right about the condo hype. People have been duped into paying 300x plus what it can rent for. If mortgage rates go up by 1% more, it will be the last straw.
I’m looking forward to the next few years when I can buy the place I am renting for 300K less than today. The area has already seen price drops of 50K+ (Heritage Mountain), and still no buyers.
The only thing that can prop up this market is a collapse of the Canadian dollar.
My house I am stuck with in Florida is looking better every day.
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patriotz Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
mebbe a MSM conspiracy to keep the sheeple in the dark…..
No conspiracy, just playing the tune you’re getting paid for.
It also takes more than one player to have a conspiracy so the Sun, Province, and Global saying the same thing doesn’t count.
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Macronomics Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Dave wrote:
The available capital cost of all proposed projects listed in the MPI is estimated at approximately $91.2 billion, up from $75.2 billion last quarter.
Dave, proposed projects are just that… PROPOSED.
Look at the oilsands projects in Alberta.
Over $110 billion APPROVED projects. And a slew more in the pipeline.
Well paying jobs ($100K and over) for the next 15 years.
I kindly ask you, what’s the % change for Calgary and Edmonton’s SFH median price YOY?
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Re-diculous Says:
August 9th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Don’t know if this has already been posted, but here is the BNN interview with David Wolf from Merrill Lynch.
His interview runs from time 38:22 – 45:40. Use slider at bottom of screen
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip72331
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Jeff Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 12:24 am
“Vancouver is probably one of the most cultural cities in the world”
That is sarcasm right?
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Bluesman Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 4:43 am
Hey Kids,
Anybody in the market for a real estate website?
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....02587.html
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Carioca Canuck Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Here’s a sign of the times….my father’s neighbour in Calgary now has a C/S sticker on his for sale sign after 3 weeks back on the market….but the realtot didn’t actually stick it on the sign, she made up a plastic U shaped sleeve with the sticker on it. That is so she can easily slide it on her sign and remove and re-use it as deals fall thru…….ROTFLMAO……!!!!!
He had it listed at $409K last year…dad says he took $305K…….less the property pimps fee…..a 31% hit from the peak……can we say “bear territory” boys and girls ?
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pricedoutfornow Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Anyone catch Priya Ramu’s little bit on real estate on CBC news (tv) I watched it on their site yesterday, Priya talks about RE price drops in Vancouver. She says “well this sounds like good news for buyers, but if you buy now you could be faced with the prospect of owning a property that’s worth significantly less in a few months”
I was blown away by her comment…they might as well just come out and say “don’t buy now suckers, it’s going to be much cheaper down the road!” It really is starting now, with a warning like that from the MSM how could we expect anything less than substantial price drops?
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Anonymous Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Bluesman Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 4:43 am
Hey Kids,
Anybody in the market for a real estate website?
That ad maybe the biggest scam ever. They have only 3 incoming links not 912 as they claim and the bulk of the sites traffic is coming from Portugal.
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franko Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 11:24 am
August price drops could nock our socks off.
The number of price cuts are currently more than double than listings.Think about it….that’s phenominal.
Nothing is moving except distress sales.
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Re-diculous Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Pricedoutfornow, per your #85…thanks!
Here’s the link to the video. It’s “Housing Drops” in bottom right of the screen, Duration 1 minute.
http://www.cbc.ca/bc/
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Re-diculous Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Pricedoutfornow, thanks for #85
Here it is: “Housing Drops”, duration 1 minute, on right side of screen.
http://www.cbc.ca/bc/
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Joe Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Re-diculous,
Thanks for the link.
Belle Puri’s statement at the end of the newsclip is very clear: buy now and it may be worth less!!!
Go for CBC. Now if Global TV or CTV Vancouver could be just as clear on their reporting.
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Anonymous Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
” Vancouver houses 35% overvalued ”
I think this number is under estimated. Considering the small amount that people earn here and housing prices, I would say they should be less than 1/2 of current prices.
I think more are questioning Vancouvers “grandness”.
Also watch out for the Olympic price tag..I dont think I want to pay it. Honestly,how many really give a hoot if someone can run so and so fast? The rest is hype. Think about it: the power of suggestion. Housing market, Olympics. Are you infested with suggestions?
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macchiato Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Re: olympics, economic prosperity, China
London Times:
http://tinyurl.com/olympicswhocares
choice quotes:
“Asking prices for flats around the “Bird’s Nest” national stadium, scene of the Olympics opening ceremony, are said to be down 20%.”
“In Hong Kong, a manufacturers’ group has warned trade leaders that 20,000 factories in southern China — mostly makers of cheap toys and sweatshops turning out plastic junk — will shut up shop by the end of this year.”
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jesse Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
“The available capital cost of all proposed projects listed in the MPI is estimated at approximately $91.2 billion, up from $75.2 billion last quarter.”
Yes there are lots of capital projects. The problem is, for Vancouver, is that they are moving to other parts of the province as the Olympic backlog clears and the other projects put on hold in other regions are queued up. Either construction workers are going to need to migrate or find 2 places to rent — one in Vancouver, the other where the jobs are.
There may not be a province wide construction bust but Vancouver will see a marked decrease in construction spending come 2009.
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Limey Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
I was born and raised outside of Canada, so I do have a bit of an outsiders perspective on some of the arguments here. Let me clear one thing up for anyone who’s not lived outside of North America.
The Olympics to the rest of the world means the summer Olympics (worldwide attention, on every channel on TV, everyone talks about it at work).
What Vancouverites call the Olympics is called the winter Olympics (mentioned briefly at the end of a sports show, a vague interest in the downhill skiing to see if anyone falls and breaks their neck).
The difference between the two would be like comparing a Stones concert circa 1967, to a Nickleback concert circa 2001. It may mean a lot to you, but no one else really gives a toss.
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blueskies Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
‘Goodbye, house’
http://tinyurl.com/goodbyehouse
bought the two-bedroom in the Sobrante Park neighborhood in 1954 for $11,500…………
…………..
The final refinance at the end of 2006 left the family owing $454,000. The monthly payments of $3,362 exceeded the household income of $3,144.
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franko Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Gotta agree with Limey.
Summer olympics are held in places like Beijing, London, Sydney, Sydney and LA.
Winter olympics are held in remote whislestops like Lillehammer, Grenoble, and Albertville.
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Limey Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
I’ve just re-read my post, and I mean no offence to Vancouver or you guys. I think it’s a great city with great people – but people who say it’s the greatest city on earth sound like wankers with not enough stamps in their passport (and no, Cancun does not count)
People in Europe tend not to ‘big-up’ their city, as it makes them sound like an American. Everytime I visit Vancouver, which is every other year, it’s seems to be loosing it’s Canadian identity. This is a little hard to tangibly explain, and it’s more just a feeling I get when I wonder around, but when I first visited Van around 10 years ago it had an identity. Something that felt different – now it seems to be caught up in the homogenous tide of north American cities. This makes me rather sad. Maybe I’m just getting old and nostalgic.
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James Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
I think you missed the whole point of “multiculturalism”. The idea is that there is no Canadian identity anymore. There’s a thousand solitudes. It’s only going to get weirder. Should be interesting to see how this goes when the muslim population reaches a recognizable level. What a clash of cultures that will be. Should be fun.
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Anonymous Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
They should let in more muslims, mexicans and east indians in and fewer from China. How about one million of each per year for 5 years. We need to be openminded.
To stike a balance. Like a big big happy family.
And then we can have another big boom boom.
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Re-diculous Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Was driving the wife to work this morning listening to News 1130. They had a Mortgage Broker on to answer the question if the U.S. Mortgage meltdownwas going to head our way. One of his arguements for way it was not: “…some places in the U.S. have declined by up to 50%, meanwhile our real estate has only gone down by 1-2%….”
in-flipping-credible!
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betamax Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 8:11 am
People in Europe tend not to ‘big-up’ their city, as it makes them sound like an American. Everytime I visit Vancouver, which is every other year, it’s seems to be loosing it’s Canadian identity.
Absolutely, and no offense taken (perhaps by the wankers, but not most here).
The loss of culture is not primarily due to multiculturalism, as a previous poster suggests (though those effects are still felt), but because people, particularly young people, are more influenced and indoctrinated by mass culture (i.e. American culture) than anything local, geographic, ethnic, national.
The recent Canadian proclivity for uncritical boosterism of anything remotely ‘Canadian’ in nature or manufacture may appear eminently patriotic and a sign of our national coming of age. Unfortunately, however, it merely indicates that we have accepted the flawed American model of patriotism and are slavishly aping American behaviour.
Ironically, it is precisely when we mindlessly proclaim empty cliches like “Canada kicks a$$” that we have never been more American.
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crabman Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Hey Limey,
Care to comment on this article.
“We are the international finance and business capital of the world, the world’s greatest global financial center, without question,” the mayor (of London) told the assembled crowd.
But in general I would agree that european arrogance tends to be a little more subtle.
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Dave Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 8:58 am
The loss of culture is not primarily due to multiculturalism, as a previous poster suggests (though those effects are still felt), but because people, particularly young people, are more influenced and indoctrinated by mass culture (i.e. American culture) than anything local, geographic, ethnic, national.
The reason that culture and language grew to be unique in the first place was isolation and the lack of communication between communities.
In the last century, communication barriers have been rapidly dissolving. Why is it a surprise that a more global culture takes hold in young people? If anything it should be expected.
In no way is culture stagnant. Culture has been dynamic throughout the history on mankind. Trying to force a culture onto anybody is an exercise in futility.
Nobody is being indoctrinated by anything. Global culture is produced everywhere, not just in the US.
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Vansanity Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 10:06 am
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/sto.....rices.html
Housing Starts and Prices show more signs of housing market “cooling off”
I love the terms that MSM uses: correction, soft landing, cooling off. When the market was going up I heard a lot of: Hot hot hot, robust, skyrocketing, break neck…etc.
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Drachen Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Limey
I think much of what you’re noticing in the recent personality change here has a lot more to do with bubble mentality than any particular shift in the local culture or psychology.
I noticed the same phenomenon at the end of the tech bubble, everyone who was deeply involved could not stop talking about how they’d made the smartest financial move of all time. I think it’s largely due to fear.
Deep down these people know it’s too good to be true but they so badly want it to be true they talk themselves into believing. Then, to confirm to themselves that they’re being rational they tell their rationalizations to other people, in a bubble so pervasive as this one that talk often gets magnified because it’s often exactly what the other party wants to hear and they repeat it with embellishment.
I suspect the excessive civic pride we’re seeing now will start to get shrill over the next few months but it will start to come from fewer and fewer mouths. In a year or two from now most of the people who are Vancouver’s biggest fans right now will probably be some of it’s biggest detractors. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a mini-exodus of people who lost their shirts and no longer wish to be reminded of their mistakes.
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Patiently Waiting Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 10:53 am
From what I’ve seen over the last year, some of the last buyers are young immigrant families. I wonder how they will react once they realize they bought at the peak?
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beta Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Why is it a surprise that a more global culture takes hold in young people?
Who expressed surprise?
Nobody is being indoctrinated by anything.
What a relief. Thanks for clearing that up.
Global culture is produced everywhere, not just in the US.
Hegemony. It ain’t just a river in Egypt.
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Last night I was walking my dog and I overheard three or four people outside the recently finished condo complex (acacia gardens) expressing their disappointment about another complex across the street just being completed (cadence)
They were concerned with the fact that their properties will now lose value, as potential buyers will have more choice and there will be comparing their units to the new ones just completed. Which according to them are nicer and newer and better deal – how unfair.
What I find most striking about it is that they were talking about their homes as merchandise… stuff for sale.
Not something you buy to live in but merely to re-sell at later date with a presumably guaranteed profit.
How can you build strong communities and neighborhoods this way if all you get is sellers competing against sellers and investors looking for quick buck?
Never mind the fact that all these places are essentially gated ghettos with “NO TRESPASSING” signs plastered all over…
Pathetic.
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Vansanity Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
pinocchio123 – I totally agree with you.
I have been thinking about this whole phenomenon of people buying real estate as an investment only. I think the dot com bust is where it started. Investors were left without any confidence in the stock market. People became scared and looked for other investments. Real estate being a tangible one makes sense for the fearful for somewhere to park their money. When the bust happened affordability was not an issue with real estate.
Now we’re at the start of another bust for a number of reasons, mainly saturation of the market and lemming mentality catching up with all the sellers etc. Will the tables reverse from real estate back to stocks? I think it will be something to watch out for.
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Aleks Says:
August 11th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
That story about the woman in Oakland losing her house is a little sad but very instructive. She took a house bought in 1954 which probably was probably paid off over 30 years ago and ran up over $400,000 in debt against it. That’s hard to do. In fact, I wish the reporter had dug a little beyond saying the woman doesn’t know where the money went. Was she living completely off debt while she stayed home taking care of her parents? What did she think would happen?
As much as it sucks for someone to lose their house, I have little sympathy for people who live that far beyond their means. It’s simple mathematics–eventually the books get balanced. However much money you are going to earn in your life is how much you can spend. If you spend more now you will have less later. If you spend less now you will have more later. Compound interest just magnifies the result.