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August 8th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
“The olympics in 2010 will be the best ever put on by any country in the world. It will be something everyone talks about for years to come.”
There’s only one Olympics that really stands out in history. Are you saying that the Vancouver Olympics will be remembered as the Munich Olympics of the new century?
August 8th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Vancouver is probably one of the most cultural cities in the world. Just walk down Robson street and you’ll see what I mean. The olympics in 2010 will be the best ever put on by any country in the world. It will be something everyone talks about for years to come.
August 8th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
I just realized that our 2010 Olympics just might be quite an embarrassment for us, when compared to the culturally rich and amazing ceremonies of Torino and, now, Beijing. I don’t see how we can even approach a comparable level; we don’t have a deep cultural heritage to draw upon like China and Beijing. We’ve got a hodge-podge cultural mix that not only we understand. And I’m sorry, but I’ve never been spellbound by any of our indigenous First Nations ceremonies; the subdued First Nations drum blessing at the end of the spectacular Torino closing ceremonies produced an awkward silence from the crowd. And don’t even get me started on how horrid the rest of our Canadian contribution was at the close; the montreal agency that produced that crap should be sued.
I mean really, what recognizable cultural show can we produce for 2010?
Oh wait, I know! Bob Rennie can try to hawk some condos. Holy crap! this could be a Condo Hyping extravaganza like no other time-share presentation know to man. That’s what we’re good at! That’s it! We already have the machinations and talent to do this. In this we are truly world class. By then, we will be the bubbliest RE city that the world has known. The world will look and gasp in amazement. At the irony of it all.
And at the end of the 2010 Olympics, the olympic caravan will evacuate the red-faced global-village of Vancouver leaving landlords — amateur and commercial — crying out for tenants as they bleed their mortgage payments to the banks.
All this, just when you thought the 2 year decline in RE prices that started in 2008 would be over.
Vancouver RE will be kicked when it’s down like no other market has been kicked.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Oh what am I saying, Johns right.
Attention anyone who makes $200,000 or more per year.
Hurrty up and buy now because next year a slew of people who make $300,000 per year will swoop in and buy your condo for 50% more than you paid.
What’s this?
You would rather rent it for 30% of the cost of mortgaging it and invest it in foreign equity while the Canadian Dollar is strong and the indexes are all low?
Read what John said above and get out there and buy!!!
What’s sad is that if an average person were to go to a brokerage in the hopes of opening a highly leveraged brokerage account buying nothing but oil futures the broker wouldn’t be allowed to let him take out $800,000 simply because he’d heard that “Oil only goes up” “It’s different this time” or the best one yet “the olympics!”
On the other hand any schmuck can walk in to a display suite and put 10% down on a condo future/assignment and then sit back and wait for the money to roll in, the salesman said it was a good idea? what’s the problem.
The salesman didn’t buy one for himself and gets a comission but he’s clearly got my best interests at heart, his website even says so!
August 8th, 2008 at 11:48 am
bdk I think you’re barking up the wrong tree. No way there’s only one Dave valiantly trying to prop up the market, and even if it was the same person who cares? We know there are plenty of hucksters and used car salesmen trying to squeeze money out of the few remaining fools before ‘real estate’ becomes a dirty word in Vancouver.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Vancouver is like the city on the hill
…and everything rolls downhill from there….. we.are.truly.screwed.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:45 am
BDK is Bill Good just goofing around, he admitted it in the previous thread.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:44 am
“special” being a synonym for …?
Oh! I know! How politically correct of you.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Dave and Rev n you Dave is one and the same, he just accidentally put his email in the website box because he was so busy posting on several blogs at once he screwed up.
When his Wife saw this she jumped in and tried to claim it wasn’t him and then he denied it like Bill Clinton denied having sexual relations with that woman. Who else has a vested interest in trying to keep the Vancouver Condo market alive? He’s suggesting that a slowdown in construction is good. This means incomes will drop for workers and the developers will be on the hook for land that they overpaid for and realtors who’ve dabbled in development are going to go bust.
How could that be good? I don’t know one realtor (and I know at least 100) who’s excited about making 50% of what they made last year.
The plus side is they can hop from one blog to the next in the hopes of somehow averting the catastrophy that will be real estate for decades to come.
Who else would repeatedly try to prop up the market?
August 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
The thing is that investing in real estate in Vancouver is a sure thing so even the most foolish will always win. That’s what’s so great about this system. Vancouver is like the city on the hill and everyone in the world wants to come here to make millions. It’s really special.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:32 am
beta – without the idiots there would be no bubble. Just because they ‘shouldn’t be buying’ doesn’t magically make them go away. Call me an optimist, but I believe idiots can learn and hopefully future instances of idiocy can be avoided.
Or do you believe that if YOU already know something its no longer worth saying to others? Sounds like a recipe for an increase in future idiots to me.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:28 am
“I guess the blood in the water has some bears acting like sharks.”
I feel judged…
Just joking!
August 8th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Whoa! Fannie Mae lost three times the wall street estimate. $2.3 billion here and there eventually adds up to real money:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26087869/
August 8th, 2008 at 11:25 am
The purchasing advice on Dave’s blog is simplistic “Buying for Dummies”, so obvious it shouldn’t need to be said.
rx’s justification of it — i.e. that many people are either ignorant or idiots or both — isn’t unreasonable, but it ignores the fact that such people have no business investing in highly leveraged assets. Anyone who needs such advice shouldn’t be buying, and the fact that they are and have been in large numbers is just a further instance of bubble-crazed fools rushing in.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Thanks Drachen and Crabman, good points. I guess the blood in the water has some bears acting like sharks. My guess is Dave (the original, not revnyou dave) works in some capacity in the industry and really wants to believe what he writes. you’re not Dave Watt are you?
August 8th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Dave, your comment about the drop in building permits to be a welcome relief for developers and builders is incorrect. Builders will continue to build at a frantic pace because they will squeeze out every last dollar they can – it’s every man for himself. That’s why building got so frienzied in the first place. They have deadlines and contracts to finish.
However, with building slowing, I do expect that what is built, will be (should be) of higher quality. That said, expect layoffs of a large percentage of the construction workforce regardless. This will augment the growth in foreclosures.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Dave is not a stupid guy. He disagrees with us, but he is not stupid. I’m sure the bulls called bears idiots a few years ago.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:05 am
It sure seems like satv/krissh/thumbsup has conditioned people to attack anything slightly bullish?
Dave is very knowledgeable but overly optimistic and due for a rude awakening IMO ;^). John is just goofing around, and RX’s comment seemed completely reasonable.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Some of you sure are quick to judge.
it’s hard to be humble when you are perfect!
August 8th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Mr Simpleton
John = Joker, 100%
Dave = Serious, although I doubt he believes much of what he says, it seems he has some ulterior motive for posting here.
RX = I don’t see what you guys have against him? I think that advice on David and Julie’s blog is excellent. I just think that if they’re purchasing places now they are either disregarding their own advice or they’re completely incapable of calculating fundamental value. However you should really be asking all of those questions (obviously if you cannot pay, no deal, if what you can get the property for is greater than what it’s worth, no deal). He phrases it very poorly but the essential idea is correct.
I do find it sad however that someone who’s been (supposedly?) university educated does not know the difference between, ‘then’, and ‘than’.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Rx: Have you ever heard of the expression “The media is the message”?
August 8th, 2008 at 10:49 am
John is clearly a joker.
August 8th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Rich asians love mountain biking and windsurfing since when?
Rich asians love cock fights, massage parlours and beating their filipina maids.
August 8th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Some of you sure are quick to judge. Other people must be really tough to deal with when you’ve got no flaws huh? So other than the then/than errors you’re picking on what was so wrong about the sentiment in that paragraph?
.. or are we down to attacking spelling and grammar rather than content?
August 8th, 2008 at 10:42 am
At first I thought John was a skilled joker, but I’m really not so sure anymore. Any thoughts on this?
August 8th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Dave is clearly too stupid to do anything else
August 8th, 2008 at 10:40 am
That was supposed to read: you should never underestimate…
My bad!
August 8th, 2008 at 10:40 am
A lot of bag wannabe mortgage brokers, like Dave, will have to go back to working as valets and parking attendants
August 8th, 2008 at 10:39 am
You should never estimate people’s stupidity.
That is after all what makes this city unique.
The incredibly high number of stupid, greedy and uneducated people around here is what made this bubble possible.
Gasp!
August 8th, 2008 at 10:35 am
This blog is amazing…
John, Dave, RX… are you guys for real???
Quote from Austin Powers:
“why must I be surrounded by IDIOTS???”
August 8th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Anonymous: I think rx is more out-to-lunch then (sic) Dave and Julie.
August 8th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Anonymous, that seems like reasonable advice to me. Maybe you just think its completely obvious, but I’d say that the only question many people ask themselves during a boom is ‘how much can I pay’, which the banks and CMHC did as much as possible to stretch. The quote you posted seems like a sensible reminder that just because you are willing to overpay for a property doesn’t mean its actually worth it.
August 8th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Read this great piece over on Dave and Julie’s site:
One of the first questions you’ll ask yourself when you are looking at a new property to purchase is: What is this property worth? That is a different question then (sic): How much can I pay? And it’s still different then (sic): What can I get this property for? But all of those questions need answers before you put in an offer to purchase a new property.
I can only hope that standards have improved at UVIC and York since the highly educated duo received their degrees.
August 8th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Listen listen listen here. Meryl Lynch is not exactly a reliable source on anything financially related, just look at their share price. This market is challenging right now but it’s just due to the spectacular weather. Once the rains start in September the real estate market will heat up again. I’m going to Squamish this weekend to try and find some good deals on some condos. Rich asians love Squamish for the wind surfing, mountain biking and the olympics.
August 8th, 2008 at 9:43 am
No it won’t. It will be a welcome relief to most developers and most workers in construction.
LMAO. Yes, those bubble-inflated profit margins and paycheques are such a pain to deal with. It’ll be a welcome relief to make a lot less money.
Enjoy your paycut!
August 8th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Dave’s pulling a John, right? LOL! Must be!
August 8th, 2008 at 9:36 am
a house builder can finish drywalling a condo one day and start laying highways the next.
some of the construction finishing i’ve seen strikes as just the reverse of this
August 8th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Classic. They’ve been using the ‘infrastructure’ argument in Ireland and the UK as their construction industry collapses too. I love the idea that a house builder can finish drywalling a condo one day and start laying highways the next.
August 8th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Dave your lack of insight is astounding if not disturbing.
August 8th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Dave
I’m not even going to bother shooting you down all the time any more. We’ve been saying the sun would rise again and there’s the horizon beginning to get lighter by the minute but Dave is in his corner, eyes firmly closed, fingers in his ears saying, “If I don’t see it it’s not happening!” over and over, rocking back and forth like an autistic child.
August 8th, 2008 at 8:58 am
This will translate to a 22% reduction in the construction workforce over the next few years.
No it won’t. It will be a welcome relief to most developers and most workers in construction.
Everybody has been working crazy hours and there has been a shortage of skilled labour. I think permits have to drop a lot further for there to be significant job loss implications. Let’s also not forget that there is a massive amount of work already on the books and a massive amount of infrastructure spending that doesn’t show up in those stats.
August 8th, 2008 at 8:55 am
The olympics.
Just kidding, right? They will be over too. (Only 1 1/2 years away)
August 8th, 2008 at 8:49 am
When this is over, what’s to stop the rate from going back up to 8%?
The olympics.
August 8th, 2008 at 8:45 am
The value of building permits issued to contractors in British Columbia dropped by almost 22 per cent over the first half of 2008 compared with 2007.
This will translate to a 22% reduction in the construction workforce over the next few years. During this housing boom, the unemployment rate dropped from ~8% to around ~5% in Vancouver – almost entirely due to construction. When this is over, what’s to stop the rate from going back up to 8%?
August 8th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Vancouver’s market is sustained by the belief in the best place on earth. This is the land of rainbow colored gum drops of joy and luxury condos which rich asians enjoy. The liquid sunshine that we get year round is probably one of the most enjoyable aspects of this paradise.
August 8th, 2008 at 7:09 am
And another…
Vancouver’s Housing Hangover
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....Blogs/home
some snipits:
“The likely result? A small price drop in the short term combined with a steep drop in sales volume, followed by a second wave of a bigger decline in prices as sellers finally capitulate. The Lower Mainland’s housing market looks to have been hit by the first, and headed for the second.”
“B.C.’s housing market woes are no Great Depression, but coming as they do on top of high energy prices, a wobbling forestry sector, and the lowest level of consumer confidence in a half decade, they may qualify as the Pretty Big Hangover.”
August 8th, 2008 at 6:58 am
55,000 jobs lost in Canada, biggest drop since 1991
http://www.bnn.ca/news/2660.html
Mostly Ontario and Quebec and 48,000 of them were part-time. Nonetheless, the drop is substantial.
August 8th, 2008 at 6:38 am
How refreshing, after many years, to pick up the morning paper and see the headline “Housing slump stalks Western Canada” instead of yet another bullish RE report. I thought I was losing my mind a couple of years ago and therefore view headlines like todays as very therapeutic.
August 8th, 2008 at 5:40 am
I wonder what data sample Merill Lynch used behind their conclusion that Vancouver housing prices are 35% overvalued? Based on Mohican’s fair value P/E formula, most condos and houses in my neighbourhood easily could be argued to be around 50% overvalued.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Lots of good reading there.
I discussed the stupidity of overpaying for an object/investment with a friend tonight. People only over pay when they truly believe that the price/value in the object they are buying will ONLY go up. When you break it down like that, God, it sounds so IGNORANT!
Watching this cycle truck along and everyone’s reaction to media, rhetoric, spin, propoganda, you name it, just reassures me that there is an Unthinking Majority in our society. Just like Serj Tankian sang about.
Here’s a youtube link in case you too are just tired of reading, take a break: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEV_1xD8msk
BTW – I also recommend “Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition”. Cheers!