Friday Free-for-all!
It’s Friday and that mean open-topic time! Here’s a round up of recent news stories:
-House prices drop nation-wide, Calgary leads with -10% YOY
-Western Canadian markets hit hard by housing downturn
-Market correction not a calamity
-Buy our BC home, we’ll give you cash
-Dreams of proper compensation for a huge inconvenience
-Olympic fever and the post games let-down
-New mortgage rules: Ignorance breeds contempt
-US foreclosures up 55% in July
-Higher inflation brings lower standard of living
-Home owners in denial about realty value?
-Another buy one new home get one free offer
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
note: any conversation on Vancouver, real estate or economics is allowed, please keep it civilized. When posting articles please only quote pertinent points and link to the original instead of pasting the entire article here. Pasting a link will automatically create a clickable hot-link. Thanks!
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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mflat Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 12:41 am
Read em and weep about the Beijing Olympics (from the Forbes article):
“But analysts expecting an Olympic rally were perplexed, scrambling for explanations and settling on the likelihood that sentiment was sobered by the realization that a two-week festival for the world does not change economic fundamentals.”
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Vancouver ReMax real estate agent Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 5:41 am
Ha-ha-ha…
You had me at the 4th link (buy our BC home, we’ll give you cash), and the last one really cracked me up (buy one new home, get one free)! How do you see the future of the Canadian RE market?
I think this autumn’s gonna be a great one!
Cheers from ReMax Vancouver,
Jay
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Montery Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 7:32 am
Vancouver ReMax real estate agent I’m not sure why you’re laughing. I would hope that you take heart in the linked CTV news article and advise your sellers that “The greatest incentive of all, of course, is a home listed at a fair price.”
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ellery Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 7:37 am
It is a clever realtor who taunts a group of people clearly obsessed with real estate ( a large segment of whom have been saving, waiting for a dip in the market, which as I understand it is exaclty when realtors need to shore up their clientele). Way to cover your bases, Jay! Good use of your time, there.
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mflat Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 7:37 am
Jay is obviously on a bit of a sugar high from all the kool aid he’s drinking.
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 8:18 am
$36k to rent a “flat” for the winter games… OMG.
I have a friend in Salt Lake City who’s been laughing at the same sort of people when they were hoping for the same thing a few years ago. Most of the houses (some of which were incredibly built just before the big spectacle on the premise of recovering some of the cost thru “olympic” rentals) remained empty. That’s right, nobody actually bothered renting them out.
And of course, as everyone knows those “olympics” did absolutely nothing to Utah’s economy apart from overinflated egos of some business/real estate owners and the following realization that it was just a dream that never came true.
I guess, once again, history will teach us nothing…
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Dave Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 8:46 am
I don’t understand why so many bears on these sites continuously bring up the Olympics. I haven’t heard many bulls claim that it will give a boost to real estate.
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ellery Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Hi Dave!
So nice to see you here again.
Here is an example of when you suggested the Olympics would boost real estate:
http://tinyurl.com/6fb3q9
Don’t you remember?
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John Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 8:51 am
The olympics will lead to the greatest economic boom in BC history, probably world history in fact. BC is an economic paradise blessed with the best coast on the planet, the most interesting coastal mountain range the world over, the most pine beetle forest reserves. It’s truly a miraculous and wonderous place and the olympics will bring attention to it all. I just bought a condo in Whistler. The developer made everything out of jade because rich asians love jade.
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Dave Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:07 am
John, the sarcastic commentary was funny the first dozen times. But, at this point, I don’t see it adding anything to the forum. At some point, you are crossing into troll territory, as per the link provided by Ellery.
BC is blessed with many great things. This province is filled with unbelievable beauty and plentiful resources. There is no reason why BC and Vancouver cannot have the highest standard of living of any jurisdiction in the world. We have only just scratched the surface of our potential here and we are just getting started.
Rich Asians do like BC. They are even building a Vancouver resort in Shanghai!
You might not believe it, but I do. Time will prove me right. You’ll see. Give it 25 to 30 years.
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John Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Dave you are the one trolling, not me. I truly believe in this spectacular place loved by all. It’s the mountains stupid.
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betamax Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:16 am
I think this autumn’s gonna be a great one!
Based on what, other than wishful thinking, after peak spring sales were so dismal. While during the boom years, fall sales typically pick up after the summer slowdown, 2008 is clearly not a boom year. Even if sales do pick up slightly (debatable), they’d still be far down from previous years.
Reminds me of US realtor Gary Watts’ claim last year that seasonal sales would be “inverted”, with the peak in the fall rather than the spring. Why? Merely because he hoped it would after spring sales obviously tanked.
Jay’s all hyped up on Koolaid and his latest re-reading of “The Secret”, and he mistakenly thinks mindless bluster will carry the day. Keep whistling past the graveyard, Jay.
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Anonymous Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:26 am
From his head shot on his site it looks like Jay spilled KoolAid(TM) all over his face whilst chugging it down.
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Anonymous Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:26 am
I can hardly wait until Jay is back at Starbucks, he used to make the best lattes!
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betamax Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:31 am
There is no reason why BC and Vancouver cannot have the highest standard of living of any jurisdiction in the world.
uh…because our economy can’t achieve that, let alone sustain it?
Oops, sorry for the momentary intrusion of reality. Carry on.
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RJB Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:33 am
I love the end line on the cash bonus story:
“The greatest incentive of all, of course, is a home listed at a fair price.”
No… really?
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Vanguy Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:38 am
The G&M article claims $400-500/night which for the ‘Olympics’ seems reasonable. But I don’t understand how they stretch it to $35k/house.
They even talk about renting it out for the full 21days of events – but doesn’t that include Paralympics? It’s a bit of stretch to think thousands are going to flock here for three full weeks – after six days I’m starting to get bored by the Summer ones and there is a lot more going on in them.
Finally – “A relative of a friend answered the door to their place in Whistler, and someone offered them $35,000 on the spot,” Mr. Dyck said.
A relative of a cousin who works with this guy…BULLS**T! People are so naive…
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Burden of Proof Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Surprise, surprise, more garbage from Dave.
Vancouver has the highest cost of living in Canada with incomes at the bottom of major Canadian cities. We are a long way from having the highest standard of living in Canada let alone the world.
Visit toronto. They have more, do more, spend more, earn more, travel more, invest more, save more, are better able to pay for cars, education, housing. They have a much higher standard of living on average than vancouverites.
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Drachen Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Jay Banks
“I think this autumn’s gonna be a great one!”
Wow, I’m glad you agree, but it will be even better once property prices have fallen 60% or so! As an ex premier used to say, Faaaaantastic!
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Drachen Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Dave
“Rich Asians do like BC.”
They may like it but they don’t buy property here. Less than 1% of sales in the last few years in BC have been to people who are Asian residents. That argument is even weaker than the Olympics one you sneer at.
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Dave Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 10:07 am
They may like it but they don’t buy property here. Less than 1% of sales in the last few years in BC have been to people who are Asian residents. That argument is even weaker than the Olympics one you sneer at.
Incase you haven’t noticed, about one half of the people who live in the GVRD are immigrants. Of those, a large percent are from Asia. If you assume 2/3rds home ownership, that adds up to a pretty large number.
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Real Estate Bull Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Real Estate Bull { 08.15.08 at 9:08 am } Rob, thanks for the new fresh thread-quick shift this time, some of the bitter renters would attribute the quick change over to some sinister and alternative motive on your part.
You ask some interesting questions. I’m not a RE expert/professional, so it would be kind of you to share your thoughts, as to when and how to identify the absolute trough.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
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Dave Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Visit toronto. They have more, do more, spend more, earn more, travel more, invest more, save more, are better able to pay for cars, education, housing. They have a much higher standard of living on average than vancouverites.
More to do? Please…
I have been to every major Canadian city, including Toronto.
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blueskies Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 11:06 am
yeehaa!
dave the troll is spanking john the troll!!
whilst koolaid jay should be updating his “ass”book profile…
gonna be an interesting friday all in all
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wolfey Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Dave,
Hmm…let’s see as for sports Toronto has
basketball- Raptors
baseball – Blue jays
football- Argonauts
Soccer-toronto FC
Hockey – maple leafs
cool stuff
Toronto Carnival- Caribana 2008
much music
Business
TSE
American express -Canada
Apple Canada
Hewlett Paackard- Canada
major business HQ are all back here in the East
Bc has only 3 major sport venues. What major HQ is in BC. whaat happened to VSE- stock market…
Toronto has alot of employment to support the economy
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scullboy Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Dave:
Hanging out in the airport doesn’t count. I’m no fan of Toronto but that’s where the action is (as another poster likes to say). All of the banks’ head offices are there. They have the TSE. They have most of the country’s head offices.
And I hate to school you but they ALSO have most of the immigrants. People coming to Canada don’t land and drop a zillion bucks on a house for themselves and their families. Generally they go where they can earn MORE money and spend HALF what they would here on a house. One of Toronto’s major problems is massive sprawl, but the fact it it’s easier and cheaper to live there.
I’ve lived in every major Canadian city. Even *halifax* has more to do then Vancouver does! Kitchen parties, anyone? Van’s really pretty an all but it’s amazing how few people have spent any amount of time in the other Canadian cities.
And your assumption that 2/3 of “Asian immigrant” is a number pulled 100% out of your ass.
Nice try though.
Oh and Jay Banks: If you think the fall season’s going to be great then for God’s sake, go out there and SELL SELL SELL!
That’s my polite way of saying fuck off.
Bitter renters? Are you *kidding*? You can live in the same property for about 1/3 to 1/2 the cost, which frees up money for saving or investing…. or hell, these days just paying the grocery bill.
I’m an expert cook (I’m starting a business giving cooking lessons to cash strapped condo owners…. my marketing tagline is “so many granite countertops, so few chefs”). Every time I hit the grocery store I am a bit stunned by the costs of groceries. I keep thinking “Wow, thank God I’m not maxed out on expenses!”
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Real Estate Bull Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Rob, why have you censored my post? What is so offensive?
Too much truth?,hit a raw nerve?
22Real Estate Bull Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Real Estate Bull { 08.15.08 at 9:08 am } Rob, thanks for the new fresh thread-quick shift this time, some of the bitter renters would attribute the quick change over to some sinister and alternative motive on your part.
You ask some interesting questions. I’m not a RE expert/professional, so it would be kind of you to share your thoughts, as to when and how to identify the absolute trough.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
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The Censored Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Yeah, it’s all good; if it makes money and it’s legal it’s all good.
Screw the single parent who has been priced out of a secure place to raise children.
(Speculator’s greed is more important)
Screw the young family who is trying to put roots down, and has to move before the school year is over.
(Speculator’s greed is more important)
Screw the senior citizen who fought the war, and now has to make way for the wrecking ball.
(Speculator’s greed is more important)
But, Realtor X isn’t a speculator, it’s just a coincidence his business plan works on the basis that price appreciation must be perpetual.
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jesse Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
” If you assume 2/3rds home ownership, that adds up to a pretty large number.”
Distinguish “rich immigants” from “rich foreigners”. I agree there are some of the latter but Drachen is right that there are very few of the latter. I would look at the recent trends of immigration to Vancouver. Fewer come from the more affluent countries compared to last decade. I am not certain the money is there like it used to be. My friend coined rich immigants as the “deus ex machina” agument.
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Anonymous Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Is it just me or would a lot of the Remax Crest Westside Office realtors be pissed off that Jay Banks has gone and made statements on behalf of Remax and upset dozens of potential buyers in the process?
They can thank him when they lose future business.
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ellery Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
“Is it just me”?
Well, maybe. I like to entice potential clientele by ruffling up their hair and giving them tips on weight loss. It works for me! Also, if I was selling houses, I would be sure to put a picture of my head floating above some…boats. I like my floating head to be smiling and friendly. It keeps people confused, because at first the think I am interested in building a friendly relationship, and then I say something to alienate them. They are so off balance, that they will pay ANY price. Also, I can tell you that markets never operate in cycles. They are completely random and sometimes go in the same direction for infinity. Yay! Jay!
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ellery Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
actually, I want to go back and answer that anonymous question seriously. This blog represents a market segment which/whom:
a. is interested (even obsessed in WoW’s case) in real estate
b. is interested in saving/financial planning/investing (ie building up cash reserves)
c. have not yet bough a home in a very saturated market.
so, yes, I would think this is a group to keep in your back pocket for a rainy day. however, I cannot question Jay, if you check his bio you will find that real estate is “his destiny”.
I really did enjoy the laugh, though. But now my sandwich is finished and I have to go back to work!
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arit Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Jay Remax real estate person,
A few things for you, if you do not mind:
1. It is smart of you to dis-allow comments in your blog. The costly mistake Jean Gibson made caused her to shut down the blog. I strongly do NOT recommend you to allow comments as there are a few people here including myself who would definitely comment in your blog.
2. You have been a realtor for 16 years. Your wife, family, friends, parents and relatives are all realtors. I really, really hope you saved some of those 6% for a rainy day and did not spend all the money on kayaks and golf. When “the day comes” (it came already), who is going to support your family? Who has a REAL income in your circles?
3. In addition, I highly suspect that you have been drinking your own cool aid. If you own presales or flips, better start brushing your “clothes salesman” skills, you are going to need them, or you could always try to convert your experience to sell used cars.
4. The SQL query in your blog is broken, broken, broken. Try finding an unsold house for less than 400,000 in Richmond and you get sold houses over 4 million. The “select all” command for the checkboxes does nothing.
If you need a professional software engineer to fix those small issues, we can arrange something for 6%.
5. Exposing your family (including your daughter’s wife) to the net in a real estate blog is a sin. You have to keep them separated! Work is work, family is family. Would you want your daughter to be verbally hurt by some insensitive bear like those we see here???
Best regards,
arit
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bdk Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Jesse, I have had many business dealing with “rich” Korean people. They told me last year that their circle aren’t interested in Vancouver now because they can go to L.A. for cheaper, the climate is better and they have a large community whereas 4-6 years ago YVR was the closest airport for them and it was half the price of L.A.
It’s already been established the Hong Kong Chinese stopped moving here a decade ago and stopped investing about four years ago.
So that leaves Vancouver with a few buyers from the Middle Eastern Countries who are looking to park their money somewhere “safe”
They will absorb at least a few dozen of the upcoming 10,000 units that will hit the market so there is nothing to worry about.
No bubble here, move along, Vancouver has de coupled from the Global Economy because it’s so great it’s off the Map!
Buy now or be a bitter renter for life.
So if I have this right it’d be better to own a studio in Chilliwack than live in a new water view unit with concierge, pool, gym and be a five minute walk from work and still save $2,000 per month?
Does this make me a bitter renter?
I have co workers taking 1.5 hours to get to work and 1.5 hours to get back, is pride of ownership when the house they live in costs twice as much and will drop thousands per month , on paper, for years really that worthwhile?
How is calling a landlord and having them pay for repairs a bad thing?
Hmmm, I want to paint so if I do the painting the paint is free. Again how is this a bad thing?
If the new neighbours suck I can move to the newer building across the street for the same price.
Are any of us early 30’s quasi professional people really going to still live in the same unit in 40 years?
Are any of these people going to be keen to pay the assesments when they leak?
What about paying mutliple assesments on top of subsidizing the renter by $2,000/month and being underwater on the mortgage and therfore unable to sell without taking a loss of several hundred thousand per unit.
Don’t worry guys, the realtor says it’s different here. Buy now or pay half the price later!!!!
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blueskies Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
……… I strongly do NOT recommend you to allow comments as there are a few people here including myself who would definitely comment in your blog.
good points arit:
i would be willing to comment also
as Ms. Gibson so willingly enabled me
to do….
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Burden of Proof Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
“I have been to every major Canadian city, including Toronto.”
If you had half a brain you would realize that Toronto is the only major Canadian city. LOL!
Population of Vancouver – 587,891 (2006 Est.)
Poulation of Baltimore – 637,455 (2007)
Polulation of Toronto – 5,113,149
Population of Missisauga -668,549
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Drachen Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Dave
“Incase [sic] you haven’t noticed, about one half of the people who live in the GVRD are immigrants. Of those, a large percent are from Asia. If you assume 2/3rds home ownership, that adds up to a pretty large number.”
Are you trying to say that our Asian immigrants are less savvy about real estate matters and more likely to overpay than immigrants of European descent or people who were born here? That’s a pretty racist mind you’ve got there bud.
However, if you look at the immigration figures, ‘rich’ Asians do not figure prominently. To hazard a guess it’s under 5% of immigrants are worth several million or more and hail from Asian countries. At best that bumps the “Rich Asian” quotient up to about 2% of purchases (including residents and non residents).
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VHB Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Nicely said, BDK.
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jesse Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
bdk: “Does this make me a bitter renter?”
Yes
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jesse Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Statcan immigrant data Table 3E. Immigrants, on average, are not earning as much as Canadian born residents. Maybe they don’t have to because they’re already wealthy.
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matt Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Exactly what do Vancouverites do for a living? Are there any stats on this?
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VHB Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
@41:
a) Grow dope
b) Smoke dope
c) Build condos
d) flip condos
e) talk about condos
The real pros can combine all 5 at once!
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jesse Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Statcan Median and average wealth by immigration status
The more recent immigrants aren’t significantly wealthier than anybody else and it could be argued are less wealthy overall. Maybe they aren’t declaring their wealth. That must be it.
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Re-diculous Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
B.C Housing Sales at lowest level since start of the decade
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....5582a375a1
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matt Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
I knew weed was a major part of the economy but I’m not so sure the revenue generated really trickles down into the Vancouver economy. I know the average family income is around 60k. I believe the 90th percentile is around the 80k mark. What would also be interesting is to find out what occupation is the mode. I would pick either retail or construction if I had to guess.
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bdk Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Thank You VHB, I was a big fan of your site and it’s possible we’ve talked in person ,on the elevator, before and not known.
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Drachen Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
“The real pros can combine all 5 at once!”
Well that does explain a lot about our friend Jay Banks!
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umdesch4 Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Check out the latest from CMHC:
Home prices to outpace inflation, CMHC says
Don’t be drinking anything while you read it, ‘cuz it’ll likely spray out of your nose.
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jesse Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
matt, if you want neighborhood-by-neighborhood data, look at this report. It’s dated, from ‘96, but it shows you roughly who does what. I would hazard a guess that there are a few more construction and real estate jobs around now than before but overall I expect the breakdown of employment is pretty accurate. Happy reading!
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jesse Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
“There is no reason why BC and Vancouver cannot have the highest standard of living of any jurisdiction in the world.”
Dave, I agree with you here. We should all aim to have a higher standard of living. From Wikipedia:
In the past 30 years income inequality has increased, the poverty rate has increased, and real income is flat to falling. I share your desire to make things better but the track record is not so good. It’s worth thinking about how to turn it around and what is really required to pull it off. That’s the best way of increasing and sustaining long term property values. Repeating platitudes and improving one’s state of mind only improve perceived quality of life, not standard of living.
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Macronomics Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Renting kicks ass, especially if you’re not a pack rat.
I’ve moved 3 times in 5 years. Each time the place gets nicer.
Currently pay $1400/month right now for a place worth $530K.
Almost new building, pkg, full amenities, h/w floor, view, concierge, you name it.
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I cant believe what some pimps say Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
“B.C. households are now cautious about making major purchases in light of uncertainty around fuel prices and other inflationary pressures,” Muir said.
Yeah right Muir, gas goes up a few pennies, while the RE bubble packed on a few hundred thousand to the price of homes, and it’s the gas price to blame.
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Aleks Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
It’s kind of funny, but people do bitch more about the price of gas going up 10¢ than when house prices went up $100,000.
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pricedoutfornow Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Hmm…Bill Good on CTV just said “there’s evidence that the real estate bubble in BC has burst” and pointed out listings up 100+% and 30% decrease in sales all over the province.
Did I just dream that?
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squidly77 Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
right on time..calgarys condo crash arrives
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bearette Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Bill musta just dumped his condovestments. Look out below.
Have I mentioned how happy reading the news makes me this summer. It’s been a long time coming…
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bearette Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
Bill musta just dumped his condovestments. Look out below.
Have I mentioned how happy reading the news makes me this summer? It’s been a long time coming… but revenge is so, so sweet.
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scullboy Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
AHAHAHAHAHA Look to Calgary, then forward one year in time to Vancouver.
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blueskies Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
in my perusal of some blogs
i came across the phrase
“the bears were right!”
i felt a moment of giddiness
almost zen like …..
after a long tough wilderness
experience i was home….
the bears were right!
the bears were right!
the bears were right!
the beer:
The Tinwhistle Brewing Co.
peach cream ale
the moment: priceless
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Larry Yatkowsky Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Jay, with all respect, today’s BCREA’s news release say we have 63% more listings than last year.
Do you really believe we will be in Oz by autumn?
All the realtors in town couldn’t shovel that pile of inventory in a month if we tried.
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Clam Chowderhead Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
I know something important….
And I’m plopping down some major money on real estate in the Metro Vancouver area…
Even in this troubled times there money to be made on the right purchases.
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arit Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Clam,
What a useless post (61), my friend.
What value did it have?
Why did you even share it with us???
Regards,
arit
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bdk Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Clam Chowderhead,
Is your big tip that gastown will be gentrified?
If yes they’ve been saying that since the 1960’s
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Vansanity Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Using Paul B’s numbers inventory is at 20,084 with July sales in his area at 2,174 that’s 9.23 MOI. That’s the same MOI Calgary’s condo market is seeing, just sayin.
Breaking the numbers down, SFH & Attached had 1,208 sales in July and current inventory of 8,378 for 6.93 MOI.
Condos had 966 sales in July with the current inventory at 10,534 for 10.9 MOI.
If any of you can, please check those numbers. Let me know if I screwed up.
This blog is getting good, I was reading lots of the posts while killing time at work today. The bullish ones on here are becoming very aggressive… almost desperate. Tons of funnies, some of you guys crack me right up! Realtors coming out of the woodwork… lol! Good times.
OT – I wonder how many people lost money on gold buying it around $1,000 while there were analysts predicting it would run to $2,000? Where’s that guy that was pushing gold on here? He predicted $1,500 run up. So close but so far.
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valueadded Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
I’m plopping down some major money on real estate
plop. plop. plop.
What’s that smell?
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valueadded Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Nice analysis Vansanity. Same condo MOI as Calgary eh? That bodes ill for deep debt specuvestors. Things are getting very interesting around here!
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Eren Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
the best place on earth is the North Mediterranean region.
Vancouver, duh! good joke though
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jesse Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 6:03 am
“Where’s that guy that was pushing gold on here? He predicted $1,500 run up. So close but so far.”
Vansanity, gold is an EVEN better investment today ’cause everyone knows deep down it’s going to $2000. Increase your position and reap the advantages of its inherent inflation hedging and real returns in uncertain times.
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matt Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 7:14 am
Thanks for that census report jesse.
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VanTOVan Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 7:33 am
Here’s that Merrill report “Peaked: Canada’s housing
market in-depth”:
http://tinyurl.com/5cj5kp
Just remember folks: These guys don’t sell real estate, so they probably don’t stack up with the sage words of Cam Muir
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Vansanity Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 7:34 am
jesse – Sure, gold COULD go to $2,000, but when? Or are you just pulling a John? If not, seriously then give a timeline. Fill in the blank: “Gold will hit $2,000 per ounce by ____ of 2___.”
Gold’s run up was through speculation and fear. One of Jim Cramer’s (who’s a lunatic, I know) quotes that I love is: “Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered!”.
Lots of bulls and/or bears can eventually let greed sink in and become pigs. Take our RE market for example, people thinking there is still a huge run up coming… oink oink!Then… Weeeee Weeeeee!!!
I’ve got a hankering for some bacon all the sudden.
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alexcanuck Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 7:50 am
“Gold will hit $2,000 per ounce by ____ of 2___.”
Good thing you left three digits available for the year, so I’ll bite:
Gold will hit $2,000 per ounce by Dec of 2999. Buy now or be priced out forever!
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jesse Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 7:59 am
“Gold will hit $2,000 per ounce by Dec of 2999. Buy now or be priced out forever!”
It doesn’t matter if you’re a market timer like me. Prices go up and prices go down. I make money only on the upside. You guyz want numbers?
Gold to $2222 by Feb 22nd, 2222. I’ll still be alive to see it because my brain will be frozen with Walt’s so future generations can reap my wisdom on God’s Miracle Metal. Have fun this weekend guys. The sun doesn’t always shine but gold does.
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The Van Man Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 8:54 am
Nothing will do well in a recession or even a depression. Gold — you can’t even eat it!!
Part of the problem we are facing now is signs a stagflation with the overall economy being first aided by the powers to be to keep it from sputtering downwards. If it’s a booming economy, let’s keep it so. Let’s break the tradition of not having even one recession anymore. Let’s break the mantra that this time is different and that is, we are entering an era of continued prosperity without the unnecessary downsides. This is only possible with real estate, especially the Vancouver Real Estate market..
When someone tells me that they have never made a mistake in living years, there’s only 2 possibilities. He’s a android from Star Trek or he or she is a star in a science fiction movie and that the end is predicted with a script.
In reality, humans make mistakes. That’s how we improve, both in medical science as well as technology and quality of life. The downside is what brings us back up to newer heights.
Today, most of cheat.. There’s a saying that making lots of money comes from the fruits of your labour, and is proportional to how much sacrifices you make to make more.
But that’s not the case now. Today, the only hard work you do now is signing a bunch of loan papers so you can get your borrowed money to buy an inflated asset. What happens when an inflated asset deflates?
You guys are already seeing it on the SUV and the Hummer sales. Years ago, Arnold the “Terminator” had no problems driving his gas guzzling Hummer around, showing off his might. Today, he has no problems trying and eventually buying a Tesla Motors electric car to add to his collection.
What’s wrong with the Hummer? What’s wrong with an SUV. What are they so so affordable nowadays?!? Ford, GM and Chrysler didn’t see this coming?!? B*llshit! They do, but unlike Toyota and Honda, they did nothing until it become too late.
We the bears like Toyota and Honda saw this coming and try to do something about, whereas many of you guys are like GM, soon to be bankrupt.
There’s no such thing as an ever lasting boom. There’s no such thing as a perfect society where people make no mistakes. We are humans and we make mistakes. We will pay for these mistakes soon enough. It is the pain that we suffer that will make most of us realize that an inflated asset when not sold can reap many painful years of suffering.
Just ask some who owns an AGF American Growth Class fund (one of the best performing pre-Internet bubble) and still lingering at its 1997 prices and with people holding them STILL (with asset of 500+ million) while they are all loosing against inflation and taxes or the number of people buying Nasdaq ETFs who had lost most of their money for the past 8 years, still clinging to the belief that one day, these funds will rise back. You’ll have people like this in Vancouver too.. Wait.., while those bears reap the benefits and continue on with their lives with few debts and better investment prospectives while the bulls of RE still in their RE jails for years to come, only ending up either to rent the units out or just simply overpaying like those who own the AGF fund or the Nasdaq ETFs.
Some things just never change!
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Anonymous Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 9:12 am
These guys don’t sell real estate, so they probably don’t stack up with the sage words of Cam Muir
..Or David Lereah and his stunning track record on predicting the future:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D.....blications
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crabman Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 9:24 am
RE: VanTOVan #70 link to Merril report.
Look at page 10 of that report. The current house price/income ratio for Canada is higher than it was in the US at their peak.
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blueskies Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 9:35 am
still in their RE jails for years to come
good line!
RE jails with stainless steel designer bars and granite ball and chain……
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A few quotes from the pimps Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 10:08 am
OTTAWA – Canadian home prices will continue to outpace inflation this year and next the federal housing agency forecast Friday, only a day after the real estate industry reported that home prices last month were down 3.6 per cent from a year earlier.
————————————————-
“It’s only a temporary thing,” he said.
Nielsen predicts the Lower Mainland real estate market will fall “a bit further” before leveling off sometime next year.
“Then we start climbing sometime next fall,” he said.
—————————————————————————————-
CALGARY – Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty shrugged off housing worries in Canada Wednesday, saying there is no bubble and that the subprime-mortgage woes crippling financial institutions in the United States are not threatening banks north of the border.
“There is no bubble in the Canadian housing sector,” he told reporters after speaking to roughly 400 people at a Calgary Chamber of Commerce event.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Bank of Canada does not see house prices falling
Bank of Canada does not see house prices falling Thu Apr 24, 10:35 AM ET
The price of houses in Canada should rise more slowly over the next year but should not fall as in the United States, the Bank of Canada projected on Thursday
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"open house" Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 10:28 am
There are 655 opens on the MLS for Vancouver alone.
Better hurry and grab one, before we are priced out for ever.
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Anonymous Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 11:45 am
42VHB Says:
August 15th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
@41:
a) Grow dope
b) Smoke dope
c) Build condos
d) flip condos
e) talk about condos
The real pros can combine all 5 at once!
———————-
VHB,
You forgot:
Realtors
Mortgage Brokers
New growth jobs:
Repo man (or repo person for the political correctness)
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betamax Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Flaherty 2008: There is no bubble in the Canadian housing sector.
Bernanke 2005: There’s No Housing Bubble
http://tinyurl.com/85v9s
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Raincouver Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Just as an aside…we had a murder in our neighborhood last night. In North Burnaby, it was on the news. I heard gunfire at 3:10 and it was rapid fire shots, so fast I could not count them accurately.
So we can’t even use our pool area because it’s all taped off by the police and covered with CSI numbers for the spent cartridges.
Just another day in Paradise I guess.
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Real Estate Bull Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
“Real estate signs dot a Lynn Valley neighbourhood. A recent slowdown in home sales on the North Shore has led to a drop in prices. Agents are insisting the trend is only a hiccup.”
http://www.canada.com/northsho.....c65d29d9e4
This article is an obligatory read; it’s truly a classic, running out of land, temporary correction, and better hurry and buy the deal of a lifetime…..
The realtors must have been guided under the tutelage of the greats…. Bill Good, Pastrick, Muir et, al
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Vansanity Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Raincouver, I stumbled across that scene today by accident, looking for the Hop & Vine (btw – found it). What a crazy scene, I wanted to get back to East Van where I feel safe!
Also, at a bbq tonight and the whole topic of renter v. homeowner and ya, I am more convinced now than ever that people do look at it as 2 seperate classes of people (in Vancouver). Probably the most stupid thing I’ve ever heard, but it is what it is.
Maybe we should break down net worths and have 2 classes – positive or negative net worth. I’m sure most on here would be out in front on that one right now.You see…debt, it shows as a liability. The term “liability” will likely mean something to some “homeowners” in the not so distant future. Rant over.
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Anonymous Says:
August 17th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
“We’re really bulletproof for our lifetimes and beyond.”
-North Vancouver Realtor Alan Skinner on the possibily of Price declines on the North Shore
This is certainly one for the archives.
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squidly77 Says:
August 17th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
holy smokes man..are you guys in for a crash
look where vancouver is located on this list
party on comrads..housing crash dead ahead
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patriotz Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 6:23 am
Nothing will do well in a recession or even a depression.
Wrong, cash does just fine, because you can buy stuff cheap that other people don’t have the means to buy.
Been there, done that (1983), and will do it again.
People who had cash in the 1930’s did it too, big time.
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Canadian Real Estate Market Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 8:59 am
We are seeing housing starts declining rapidly which is not a good sign for the real estate market. Check out this article for CBC – http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....tarts.html
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e Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 9:01 am
bank of canada, bmo, etc forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt. they have vested interests (profit, stability, etc) to make people do NOT become panicked sellers.
probably the closest independent report was the one where merrill lynch said vancouver was 30% overpriced. of course behind closed doors they probably imply the prices may go down more than 30% (since markets are inefficient and prices go above and below fair value all the time). merrill lynch doesn’t have exposure to canadian mortgage market like BoC and BMO, etc do. in otherwords, if prices go down big time, merrill lynch does not lose — whereas BMO, BoC, realtors, etc will.
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Macronomics Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 9:18 am
squidly77,
Vancouver is not that over priced because you forgot to factor in the 4 cent decline in our dollar, so really Vancouver is only $740K.
Besides we have the ocean and tonnes of well paid jobs unlike San Jose or San Francisco which have lousy weather.
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Vansanity Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Any word on the Ontario Supreme Court decision on the ABCP trial? I googled, found nothing, wondering if any of you heard anything, the judgement is today.
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Real Estate Bull Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Canadian Real Estate Market Says:
“Bob Dugan, the chief economist for CMHC said high employment levels, rising incomes and low mortgage rates will keep the housing market relatively solid this year.
“Increased competition from the existing home market, coupled with the elimination of the pent-up demand that built up during the 1990s, will exert downward pressure on housing starts, which will decline to 194,000 units in 2009 from 215,000 in 2008,” he said.”
Sure OK Bob Dugan, you’re the economist, I suppose the downward presssure on housing starts won’t also translate on downward pressure on prices.
The good thing about the egg head economists, is that they can’t lie very well.
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Bluesman Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Vansanity: Here’s your BNN ABCP update:
http://watch.bnn.ca/monday/clip84090#clip84105
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blueskies Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
‘Liar loans’ threaten to prolong mortgage crisis
http://tinyurl.com/liarloans
Many homeowners with liar loans are stuck. They can’t refinance because housing prices in those markets have nose-dived, and lenders are now demanding full documentation of income and assets.
thank heaven for good ol’ “honest” canadians eh!
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Bizznitch Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Where’s the well paid jobs in Vancouver? Most of the jobs there involve working at McDs etc.
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jesse Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
“thank heaven for good ol’ “honest” canadians eh!”
I don’t have a sense for how “honest” Canadian loans are. It could be the problem is more subtle, where someone thinks they have higher long-term income than they do. A perfect example would be a construction worker or Realtor in San Diego, where in 2005 looking at their past 5 years of employment showed a stable and well-paid applicant. 2006 hits and all of a sudden there’s little to no work and this great looking salary used for stated income is useless.
I wonder how far back lenders in Canada go to check how stable employment income is. My guess is less than 5 years and the banks own economists are pretty much oblivious to any massive downturn in employment in construction/RE. Probably a more apt description is “La la la I’m not listening” loans.
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e Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
many friends of mine got mortgages in canada when only holding jobs for a month (i.e. new hire and still under probation). was effortlessly and prime-0.90% too. (some were also CMHC-backed too). all were max out mortgages too. (but 25 year).
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SuperMan Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
cash does just fine, because you can buy stuff cheap that other people don’t have the means to buy.
Patriotz – You in the Deflationary Camp then? I have one foot in there as well, with the other foot undecided.
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Every single person I know who bought real estate within the last couple of years are “subsidizing” their income in some illegal or questionnable way. It’s either through unauthorized rental suites, cash jobs paid under the table/cheating on taxes while self-employed, porn websites, growing/harvesting/dealing pot, or being employed in real estate (the latter one being the worst of all IMHO
I think the times of an honest canadian are gone.
I seriously do not know of anyone who got (and stayed) in the market through honest to god work recently.
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jesse Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
“Every single person I know who bought real estate within the last couple of years are “subsidizing” their income in some illegal or questionnable way.”
I’m sure this was the case in the US as well. Didn’t help many of them one bit. Renting out your basement when you lose your framing job(s) … Bzzzzzz!!!! You’re still in the red. All this under the table stuff was around in 2000 as well and property prices were much less.
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VHB Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Pinocchio, you have much more interesting friends than I do!
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patriotz Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Patriotz – You in the Deflationary Camp then?
Just as in the early 80’s, asset prices (RE and stocks) will fall and CPI will continue to rise. Wages will go nowhere nominally and total nominal payroll will fall due to reduced work hours.
So what would you like to call that?
Inflation/Deflation is not a single phenomenon, it can and does move in different directions on CPI, assets, and wages.
It goes without saying that if you’re saving cash to buy a house only RE price inflation/deflation matters.
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alexcanuck Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Superman:
I’m getting awfully interested in that deflationary camp myself. As long as there is no confusion with price inflation of things you use: food, oil in all it’s forms, clothing, and so on. That’s completely different than inflation as a monetary phenomena, until lately fueled by credit expansion. Ever so convenient for governments worldwide, as all this money created out of thin air by the shadow banking system drives the economy so nicely, yet doesn’t have the bad effects as simply printing the money would. After all, it isn’t real money, because it is all going to be paid back (with interest) and disappear again, so it doesn’t have the immediate effect on prices like is on display in Zimbabwe right now.
The trouble starts when the debt defaults, then the imaginary money disappears alright, but from the wrong pockets, and thus starts a disorderly deflation of asset prices all over!
Again, keep price inflation separate from asset inflation. Much confusion between the two. The things you USE vs. the things you OWN.
Price of daily living is going up for completely different reasons, but, yes, I believe a LOT of imaginary gold is going to turn back into lead and/or pixie dust. This is a good thing too, the toilet needs a good flushing now and then. Just be careful that you don’t have any of that gold with the extra shimmer to it.
Another thought on deflation. True inflation is good for debtors, as those peddling more and more debt point out frequently. The people who actually run the world aren’t generally struggling under a crushing mortgage, and don’t really want the runaway inflation which is one way to work out this credit crunch. The other way, of course, is massive defaults, hence the urgency to get as much onto the governments books as possible, and scurry around behind the scenes getting their affairs in order. The pension funds of the little people (you and I) is a great place to have deflation as far as the “Lizard People” are concerned!
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Keepin an eye on the pimps Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Interesting things one learns frequenting the RE blogs. For example, group behavior.
I noticed that when one specific poster is not posting discourteous comments on Rob’s blog, some of the regulars, even the polite ones, kick it up a notch and hurl unflattering ,although truthful insults at Rob.
It’s as though It creates a vacuum.
Rob doesn’t want to talk about the Rupert house anymore, although at first he thought it was great for exposure, it seems now he would rather move on with a new subject.
Any bets if you guys don’t stop posting about the Rupert house, he will change the thread to some esoteric subject?
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scooter Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
VHB said:
“Pinocchio, you have much more interesting friends than I do!”
No, not really – they just small-time scam artists mostly.
Except maybe the girl who’s got the webcam going on on her site.
BTW, did you guys ever look at the “erotic” services section on craigslist? It’s farking amazing, all theses girls selling themselves to the highest bidder. No wonder Yaletown was voted the sexiest place ever. All these condos must have been bought up by hos and their pimps, I guess.
New York and London have nothing on us, we have a thriving erotic services industry!
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scooter Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Oops, posted under my wife’s name. She is going to kill me now…
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VHB Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Hey pinocchio,
Just make sure you get your posting name right when you’re visiting the webcam girl’s site–if you get that wrong you might not have a wife for long!!
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blueskies Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
….as always
http://tinyurl.com/downtowneastside
The Downtown Eastside has always been the centre of Vancouver’s hard drug trade. In fact, Canada’s first drug prohibition law originated here, introduced a century ago after Mackenzie King investigated compensation claims stemming from the 1907 anti-Asian riots in Chinatown and Japantown. Some of the claims happened to come from opium manufacturers and King became especially alarmed when he learned the opium scourge was spreading to white women and girls.
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Anonymous Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Blueskies, do you honestly think the multi billion dollar industry is supported by a few lost souls on the DTES?
If I were a pusher, I think I would target a different crowd, perhaps Realtors,and flippers.
Some West Van Stock Brokers and their GF have the bucks as well.
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van-zee Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Dollars to donuts there are more gangsters in Westvan than the DTES.
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Vansanity Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Hey Pope, here’s a really well written piece by an American on our current economic situation and how it compares with the US:
http://www.thetrumpet.com/inde.....4.3734.0.0
“Canadian Countdown: Flood of Job Losses Coming?
A recent report from investment bank Merrill Lynch says house prices in Canada are clearly in bubble territory, with cities in the West especially so. The economic analysis, titled “Peaked: Canada’s Housing Market In Depth,” warns home prices are heading for a sustained downturn.
“We’re most concerned about Saskatchewan, where the doubling of house prices in both Regina and Saskatoon over the past two years has led us to estimate that these markets are now close to 50 percent overvalued—a level that our research denotes as the beginning of the ‘extreme’ zone where bust risks rise materially,” said the report (emphasis mine). After Saskatoon and Regina, the most overvalued homes are in Victoria, Vancouver, Edmonton, Sudbury, Calgary and Montreal.
The report stirred a firestorm of protest, from realtor associations and housing industry representatives, who claimed the report was flawed and that local conditions suggest home prices have not overly appreciated. In July, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty also said: “There is no bubble in the Canadian housing sector, that has not been our concern.”
But to someone living in the U.S., the protests sound all too familiar.
During the lead-up to America’s historic housing bust, the airwaves were filled with the same sort of claims, from the same sort of people, as to why there was no bubble. Federal Reserve Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the president of the National Association of Realtors, various lenders, builders and other government officials all claimed that soaring housing prices were sustainable—even as prices doubled, tripled and shot to multiples of household income.”
It’s worth everyone checking out.
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Vansanity Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Wow, there’s plenty of reading out there tonight:
“B.C. consumers keep their heads above water despite rising debt”
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....44efa1d928
One thing they don’t note is that BC’s lumber industry has contracted where construction expanded. No mention of the sustainability of the current construction levels, or lack of.
“Canada’s Home Inventories Rise Amid Cooling Demand”
http://www.economicnews.ca/cep.....cle/109322
I found this interesting too: “Electrical Wiring in BC Sub- Par”
http://www.canada.com/vancouve.....7073072f11
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Ignatius Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:00 am
Vansanity,
The Trumpet article you mentioned is certainly a nice summary of several recent news stories. However, the name of the journal, the ads on the website and the opening reference to Noah’s Ark should have tipped you off to the religious bent – and it is quite bent! – of the article. !!ARE WE IN END TIMES?! Of a real estate bubble, perhaps.
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Bluesman Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Maybe the article was written especially for us “fundamentalists”!
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Vansanity Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 8:47 am
LOL – Oh Jesus, where will the markets turn? – Regardless of that, as you said it IS a nice summary of all the events leading up until now. Plus it gives some insight on the “doom and gloom” in the US as a comparison.
I can’t say I took any of what was written as religious sentiment or propaganda, not that you’re implying as much.
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Anonymous Says:
August 19th, 2008 at 9:33 am
“People who had cash in the 1930’s did it too, big time.”
Maybe, if they had all their cash stored in a mattress at home.
Great Depression. People panicked, there was a run on the banks to withdraw savings. You were only allowed to withdraw 10% of your savings. Banks couldn’t give out loans either during that time. Many banks went bankrupt and people lost their savings too.