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September 1st, 2008 at 9:02 am
Matt
“I’m glad to see those that have replied about job prospects seem sincere and rational.”
Of course we are. As a group we are generally sincere and rational, that’s why we’re bears on Real Estate right now. Not to toot my own horn but we’re the people who’s trust for their own logic and intelligence is greater than their urge to conform to group think. I think that if Kitty Genovese were my neighbour she’d be alive (fascinating story about group conformity, if you don’t get the reference look it up).
September 1st, 2008 at 8:55 am
jesse “I don’t know anyone who really thinks that way” Wow who do you associate with?
Almost everyone I meet thinks the last five years is normal and I get treated with disdain when I say there is nothing “normal” about the last five to seven years. In fact I would say few if any persons I know actually feel that they can lose their jobs and that real estate can drop out of sight. Most think it’s always up… the third world is growing in importance (China, India) we will not keep our living standard which is ABNORMALLY high and unproductive as the world economy will balance as those countries gain more middle class we will loose more middle class which is exactly as it should be! Within a few decades if not the next decade we will see the end of pension funds as they go belly up, the civil service will be gutted, and the economy will revert to the fundamental of productivity wins all, human rights be damned! Do I like that? No But that is exactly what will happen. 
September 1st, 2008 at 7:41 am
“Personally my employment depends on government profligacy. Until there’s widespread outrage over the waste of tax revenue, I’ll be ok.”
That’s good for you. Others in more cyclical industries must hoard cash in good times to see them through bad times. I would think it averages out, unless you think the gravy train goes on forever. I don’t know anyone who really thinks that way, though the negative provincial savings rate seems to disagree with my observations.
September 1st, 2008 at 7:32 am
“pretty much everyone I work with has now accepted it, and yet some people are still buying homes out there… why?”
“pretty much everyone”? I think you answered your own question! The market is “taking a breather”. Starting 2010 it will start going up at 5% per year forever. For those that believe this, there are some good deals out there.
September 1st, 2008 at 5:20 am
I’m trying to gauge what the mood is like for all the bears. I’m glad to see those that have replied about job prospects seem sincere and rational. If a bunch of replies would have come back denying that any of you see any weakness in the job market I would be incredulous.
Personally my employment depends on government profligacy. Until there’s widespread outrage over the waste of tax revenue, I’ll be ok.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:02 pm
““That’s why, although it may be in poor taste, many young people are rooting for a full-blown meltdown of the real estate market. Unfortunately, many of the casualties inherent in such a scenario would be young people who leveraged themselves into knots to get into a market that they believed would only, could only, go up. ”
Every generation has to learn their lessons the hard way or they don’t appreciate them. At least us older and wiser folks won’t have to watch this obscene display of arrogance and air of entitlement by these little ass-wipe kids with their fancy cars and the BORING worn out talk about real estate and home prices. I say tough luck kids. You were suckered by an evil greedy industry that runs all the way from the developer to the 6 o clock news and everything in between.
Going forward there will be a more humble generation after many of these kids and also the foreign recent newcomers here that got suckered in as well, who now resemble rats deserting a sinking ship, try to learn to live in the REAL world.
Great News……the BEST is yet to come.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:19 pm
It’s amazing that there are still people around who don’t believe the market is crashing… pretty much everyone I work with has now accepted it, and yet some people are still buying homes out there… why?
August 31st, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Harper’s forcing an election b/c if doesn’t get a mandate before the sh!t hits the fan ie a recession the opposition will force one on him as the economy goes from bad to worse. Now is his only chance.
Also look at GDP deflator in the U.S. – it’s almost laughable how much they’re cooking the books.
August 31st, 2008 at 12:24 pm
“How many of you are optimistic you’ll hang onto your jobs in the next year?”
My job is recession-proof, though my wife’s is not. If she loses hers, she’ll go back to school and get another degree while the economy languishes. We can easily live on my income, though we’ll save much less without hers. But we already have a very large DP, so no worries there.
Do you honestly want a poll from this small sample, or are you being rhetorical? If the latter, remember that unpleasant situations are no less likely because they’re unpleasant. What will happen, will happen.
August 31st, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Mr. Pope, I have a special request.
Is it possible for you to invite Maggie from:
http://www.vancouverreflection.....bottoming/
As a special expert guest to post. I am sure most of us here could benefit from her expert opinion.
As a highly trained professional realtor, she could give us some pointers on how we can take an advantage of this market which is poised for a rebound.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:43 am
How many of you are optimistic you’ll hang onto your jobs in the next year?
I’m a PhD student. Thankfully I don’t have to worry about that. My wife is in the “Real world” so I always have some concern about her job disappearing.
Like Strataman, we’ve got plenty saved up (for a down payment, or to live off of if necessary).
August 31st, 2008 at 11:26 am
Matt,
Congratulation,you will be glad to know that people who have fear to lose their jobs are not home owners or not necessirly home owners,they could be tenents or whatever!
“How many of you are optimistic you’ll hang onto your jobs in the next year?”
I am preety confident that i won’t lose my job and i can help 100 to get job at my work place @ $500 bonus per an employee.
Over all if you are british columbians you most likely never going to lose your jobs because goods and service sectors are interadependent,we have 4 out of five jobs in service sector the pace of economy can slow down only but can’t wipe too many jobs and the shreded result should be review if those jobs are/were outside workers or inside,if those employee replaced in some alternative sectors as far as service sector concern four out of five employees are funding each other to keep each others job safe unless you are a realtor.
As far as it is concern to housing sector it has it’s own economy as far as it concern to matt “he is sick to bring this issue over and over again”HEY ARE YOU LOSING YOUR JOB?NEED HELP FINDING ANOTHER ONE?
Anyway “smart buyers and fool sellers will be countinue”this is what makes them smart $4950 / 2br W. 2ND. ST. at CHESTERFIELD AVE.PostingID: 820114272.
“My father told me never lose any golden chance when it comes to real estate buying or investing”-D.T.Junior
August 31st, 2008 at 11:19 am
Well, I have three sources of income. One is in danger during a recession, but I could do without that work. I could live decently for about a year on my savings (without cracking RRSPs), but would lose my DP. If I make huge sacrifices like moving into a hellhole, I could even keep my DP.
With my experience and education, I doubt I’d be totally unemployed. The people you have to worry about are in construction and retail. They don’t (generally) have savings and they will suffer the most in a recession. As I remember from the 80s, a recession is brutal to youth with no job experience.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:13 am
Maggie, Maggie Maggie, you are a fool.
Before you even attempt an amateurish marketing flop, make sure you read and learn from the master of spin.
http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=122#comments
“Like I said, I don’t expect or require that people read everything I write. I didn’t make an outright prediction in this case, but responded to a comment by Jesse that we’re only 3 months into what looks like a new trend that’s running counter to the last one (i.e., prices are falling). I mentioned that people ask if this will change within this year or by next spring (the “should I sell now or later question”) I said a near future change to this downward trend is unlikely. Again, I don’t mind that people don’t read that, notice it, or understand it. I just think that it would be fair to read what a person writes before judging his position. Sound fair to you?”
This Maggie is his latest, study it, re-read it, and see how he can say for sure/maybe at the same time, check out the set up, the execution, the wording.
When you have studied the method, than you can try again, until then….
Back to cold calling in a market which is about to fall of the cliff.
Again Maggie you are a fool.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:07 am
I will add that it’s way, way, better to lose your job if you are a renter with savings rather than a “homeowner” with an underwater house that can only be rented out for half its monthly costs.
’82 – been there, saw that.
August 31st, 2008 at 10:38 am
Matt “How many of you are optimistic you’ll hang onto your jobs in the next year?” Does it matter? I will just move to my paid off place in the Chilcotin, I have always worked on the assumption that I can handle absolutely no income for two years..doesn’t everybody?
August 31st, 2008 at 10:12 am
Oh, good times indeed.
Maggie: Don’t bother posting on Maggie’s site if you’ve done any proper analysis of this market. If you’re sipping the koolaid, fly at her! I think she needs as many like minded folk to post on her site as possible. Good luck to you Maggie, maybe you should just write a few “anonymous” posts that share your view, be sure not to include any stats other than old and out-dated predictions from CMHC. LOL!
How many realtors are now realizing their childhood dreams, I wonder. “What do you want to be when you grow up?” Reply “I want to be a charlatan!”
Recession: Defined as two quarters of negative output, so the .3% increase does “restart the clock”. Happened in the US too, right? What could’ve happened? Surely, the strictly political move by Bush to give 1% of GDP back to Americans through rebate had nothing to do with it! The whole move was political and tied to this election (ie. no recession under Bush, it was Hussein Obama, he’s the killer of the economy!). Their strategy has worked, but its only a bandaid over a gun shot.
August 31st, 2008 at 1:32 am
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4fc9.....fd18c.html
Canada’s economy barely grew in the second quarter, new figures revealed on Friday, lending further evidence that growth has stalled amid falling US demand for Canadian exports.
Gross domestic product expanded by just 0.1 per cent over the quarter – just 0.3 per cent on an annualised basis – much less than the Bank of Canada and most private forecasters were expecting. This follows a slip in GDP in the first quarter, and suggests that Canada is skirting the brink of a technical recession.
August 31st, 2008 at 1:23 am
About a week ago someone posted a link to this desperate seller of a Flagship assignment. Assuming there’s no fudging with the numbers, he’s now offering it at almost $50,000 under his contract price (or best offer):
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....02271.html
Makes me wonder if he’s unable to complete the deal. Anyone know when the building will be finished? As more buildings get finished, there may be a lot more speculators trying to salvage whatever they can of their deposits.
August 31st, 2008 at 12:08 am
How many of you are optimistic you’ll hang onto your jobs in the next year?
August 30th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Anonymus, you took the words right out of my mouth. I know its a bit sick, but I’m going to enjoy this.
In 2006, when I returned to Vancouver, I was stunned at the attitude of “landlords” in this town. And I’ve been a “landlord” myself. There are some people around here who need to hurt bad. They fully deserve it.
August 30th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Something is fishy with that site (Maggie). I can still see the comment by “tira” there, but not anyone elses.
Regards,
arit
August 30th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Forgot the auction in Chemainus. Whackload of equipment sitting there to get auctioned off on the 22nd of Sept. Booming BC alright!
August 30th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Hey man, that last comment was mine.
August 30th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
I just received some mail from richie bros. auctioneers (the one’s who auctioned the condos in Parksville). Well, it looks like they have more real estate auctions lined up for Sept/Oct:
Pender Harbour, BC
Athabasca, AB
Red Deer, AB
Paintearth, AB
Outram, SK
St. Paul, AB
Long Lake, AB
Houston, TX
http://www.rbauction.com/real_estate.jsp
August 30th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
My contribution to Maggies Blog…you note strictly an opinion! “Hi Maggie; Interesting question. My opinion for what it’s worth is that prices will decline in excess of 10 % this fall followed by a greater drop each year for the next two. I expect to see 40% drop by the summer of 2011 as we seem to be following the US housing bust to a tee with a 2 year delay! (Typical we were two years behind them going up, don’t you agree?). Make sure you warn FTHB that now is a terrrible time to buy! I know your priorities are happy clients and it would be a shame if other realitors did not follow your advice to wait out the down turn!”
Thanks!
August 30th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Vancouver truly is The Best Place on Earth. I have to admit, first I found this slogan infantile and embarrassing, but that was before I came to appreciate the hidden meaning of it.
Where else can you live in a comfortable apartment at a reasonable rent, save up your money, walk to work, and watch with amusement the daily parade of idiotic media types, greedy specuvestors, and the imbecile spins of the real estate industry as the roller coaster reaches its highest point and slowly begins its free fall into the abyss?
I have never had so much fun in my life. It is even more fun watching it with rational thinking, sharp minded fellow bloggers and share a few good laughs. Thanks to you all. I wish I knew you all personally.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
I can’t see any comments on Maggie’s site right now.
Ask any realtor who’s worked with her how they like her and you won’t be surprised that she’d be deleting comments.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Like bdk and Arit, my comments did not survive Maggies scrutiny either, but my dialogue may not have been quite as polite as that of bdk and Arit, as I just could not bring myself to remove all profanities from my post.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
bdk,
Please tell me: If you go to her site now, are there any comments there at all? Can you see the one comment I am seeing there now?
http://www.vancouverreflection.....bottoming/
Thanks
arit
August 30th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
I got a good chuckle out of Mish’s “special message” to Vancouver. What did we do? Well, here we are, happy as clams that we are “different” than the rest of the world-US, UK, Spain, Ireland etc. He’s simply pointing out to us that we’re going to catch up to reality soon enough and feel the pain the rest of the world is feeling. Sad, very sad.
August 30th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Maggie Chandler erased my comment on her blog and like Arit I thought it was factual and polite.
August 30th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
A visit to Mish’s site is certainly in order. The economic stats in the UK are looking very bad. Some interesting quotes re: the economy by the Chancellor of the Exchequer…
August 30th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
“He bought for 598K may 2008 and is trying to sell for 738K aug 2008. what has been done on it…nothing. He will probably drop the sale price for some G fool and probably sell it for 650 K.”
Actually, he will *probably* keep lowering the price by 5k a month until the bank forecloses on him.
August 30th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Hi Guys,
you think the bulls are changing their tune.?? There are still flippers. THere is arealtor guy trying to flip the east van home on St lawrence street. He bought for 598K may 2008 and is trying to sell for 738K aug 2008. what has been done on it…nothing. He will probably drop the sale price for some G fool and probably sell it for 650 K. the buyer …Wow what a deal:>
50# Hypester …what diverse economy?…What is there? other than tourism and forestry
August 30th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Gotta love politicians “and” statisticians….
The first quarter of this year they say GDP went down 0.8 %……..the second quarter it went up 0.3%….so ther eis no “recession”…..heh.
-0.8 plus +0.3 = a -0.5 decline over two quarters…….
August 30th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
“it’s september and I really should be back at school”
Could,nt agree more, as you’re in dire need of learning if you think that there is even the remotest chance of the Fall market improving.
The excitement has barely started, and you ain’t seen nothin yet!
August 30th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Darling Comment Of The Week
Darling Comment Of The Week: “People are pissed off”.
Indeed they are. And there are going to be many more “pissed off” in the coming years as well. Peak Credit has arrived, globally. This is what the backside looks like.
Vancouver take note. The odds that Canada can avoid a housing crash similar to what is going on the US, UK, and Spain, are zero.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
August 30th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
“Do you think the Fall market will mark a turnaround for Vancouver condos or will prices soften another 5%”
Once they start falling, they’ll keep falling. We’re no different than all the other people from all the other cities that posited various seemingly logical reasons why they in particular were immune, but it’s all speculative and it will all fall the same.
Maggie if you remember ’81 then you know what to expect. It’s gonna be deja vu all over again.
August 30th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Just went to #59′s page, it’s so nice to find a realtor who allows comments on their blog.
Just, try to be nice about it this time guys. The numbers and the weight of the truth are on our side, there’s no need to be bitter, let’s be as gracious in victory as the bulls were ungracious when they thought they were right.
August 30th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
“Do you think the Fall market will mark a turnaround for Vancouver condos or will prices soften another 5%”
Do you think you’ll gain superpowers or magic tomorrow? (it’s about the only question I could think of with scenarios as unlikely as your question)
I think you’ve just proven wrong the adage, “There’s no such thing as a stupid question.”
August 30th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
No doubt the August stats will be worse than July but I believe the Fall market will be a good one for Vancouver condos. As i follow the monthly stats I am noticing Kitsilano and the West End are showing signs of bottoming. Coal Harbour and Downtown remain well supplied (many investors taking some profits).
Do you think the Fall market will mark a turnaround for Vancouver condos or will prices soften another 5%
http://www.vancouverreflection.....bottoming/
August 30th, 2008 at 11:57 am
What does Mish have against Vancouver?
Chancellor Darling: UK In Worst Economic Crisis For 60 Years
Huh? What did WE do?
August 30th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Anecdote: six months ago, I overheard some co-workers maintaining that prices in Vancouver would never go down, that Vancouver “is different.”
Yesterday, the same co-workers were agreeing how prices are about to tumble downward, and that anyone thinking of buying should wait a year at least.
So even bulls are capitulating at last. Curiously, they didn’t mention and seemed to have no recollection of their earlier conversation. Funny how that works.
August 30th, 2008 at 10:53 am
“Hint: the “j” word.”
When it comes to Manhattan you have to be more specific… Incomes are higher, that’s for sure. I’ll assume that’s what you meant.
August 30th, 2008 at 10:40 am
We’re about to get zapped with a reality jolt when the August numbers come out. That should be enough to spur a few more headlines and pull the few remaining heads out of the sand….We’l be knee deep in blood in our streets by the end of October!
August 30th, 2008 at 5:05 am
The Fawcett article was really shocking for the Sun, but just as I developed some hope, I read the article supposedly about renting vs owning…..
August 29th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Vancouver is much more desireable than Manhattan.
Then how come rents in Manhatten are more than twice as much as in Vancouver?
Hint: the “j” word.
August 29th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Hello Arit, yes I dislike deceitful pimps myself.
arit { 08.29.08 at 7:26 pm } Maggie Chandler deleted my comment on her blog.
http://www.vancouverreflection.....bottoming/
I wrote a very polite opinion on the future of the market including a 50% reduction prediction by 2013. I was especially careful to be polite as to not give a reason for deleting.
She SPECIFICALLY asked for predictions!
Deleting relevant commentsis a big no-no in blogging.
Regards
arit
August 29th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
home sales (-53%) came in well under the Dec sales for the last 3 years. More details at my place.
http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/