"housing prices will continue to rise by as much as 10 per cent this year"

"housing prices … are likely to drop by 10 per cent before the market rebounds"

That's a whopping 20% difference. I am sure reporters will ask Mr. Pastrick the tough question: why the 20% change in forecast? I've always had a soft spot for Pastrick. I really think he's trying to do a good job but he is so brutally bad at it. Kind of like a fat kid trying to run at the track in gym class.

These figures are absolutely guaranteed to be perfectly accurate within a range of plus or minus 100%

😀

at least there was a few months between his changed position, not like the one week flip for muir.

Jesse, why they soft spot for Pastrick?

i remember the first time i got sick on the

roller coaster ….. not unlike this at all

"why they soft spot for Pastrick?"

I prefer to think he was trying his best and not a liar.

Jesse, why they soft spot for Pastrick?

Would it not be strange if Jesse had a "hard" spot for Pastrick?

Trying his best not to look like a complete idiot, that is.

If any of the usual suspects comes out and says there may be declines of up to 10% it means they are expecting a major bust.

I prefer to think he was trying his best and not a liar.

Fair enough, I was just curious I don't know much about him other than his economic acuity seems to be lacking.

As much as I take exception to Helmut's "forecasts" I also believe he acts/extrapolates in good faith. However, such a flip flop without an explanation of flaws in previous analysis is disingenious at best.

Mr Pastrick's Resume

"Prior to joining Central in 1997, He spent many years with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation in BC responsible for analyzing and forecasting the provincial housing market and economy."

No wonder, he worked for the CMHC, and for many years he has been "analyzing and forecasting"

Before everyone piles on, it might be worth keeping in mind that Mr. Helmut's timing is considerably more spot-on than that of the bears who've been talking "fundamentals" for 4+ years. And I'll wager his timing on the turn to the upside will likely also be better – since he seems to be the kind of guy who actually waits for evidence of a market turn to make Grand Predictions.

If the so called market analysts would actually know the direction the market is heading they would not yup about it to the general public, but would invest their own money accordingly. In other words they would be investors, not analysts. So expecting any kind of wisdom or accuracy from market analysts is about as pointless as expecting that bank's financial advisor (making 40k a year) actually knows what he is doing.

My prediction is coming true.

So by your own admission you're 3 years late "predicting" a market that moves in ~5 year cycles. That's not being "right", that's being a stuck clock.

Plus+ we are running out of land. Actually we ran out of land because all the rich people from everywhere came to live here after expo86.

The bulls know this is the end.

Stay tunned and see how nasty the fools will get.

Well said VHB!

The market has been out of touch with fundamentals for some time. We all knew this and saw this coming. This would have happened sooner if it wasn't for some slick new products (ie. 40 year zero down mortgage).

Predicting when these things will happen is difficult. Declines in price require a change in consumer confidence and their emotions. Nowadays, we're seeing a return to fundamentals without the emotional change, ala the saturation of units for sale, affordability is gone and the profit margins for speculators and developers are gone. Consumer's confidence and emotions will change soon enough and that's when the prices will see a drop. Interest rates will be the final piece of the perfect storm puzzle.

Hasn't this market been going up for more like 8 years? That's 3 years over your approximate 5 year cycle.

I'll make a prediction: Both Helmut and Cam will continue making soft landing predictions all the way down, just like Lereah in the States.

"Trying his best not to look like a complete idiot, that is.

If any of the usual suspects comes out and says there may be declines of up to 10% it means they are expecting a major bust."

Agreed. I wonder how much of the pump in the market by the so called market experts was really based in fear of not wanting to be the outsider. You know, the guy/gal that 'Is always negative and gloomy'?

This is a great contrast of forecasts, but the flip-flop isn't exclusive to the economist quoted above. Economic forecasts very rarely pan out, especially when they're made by institutions with a vested interest in the outcome. It's bunk by nature. Banks and credit unions are conservative, follow-the-pack institutions. They all copy each other because nobody wants to be accused of not doing what the competition's doing.

The big issue is how these "expert" opinions keep getting published without challenge in the mainstream media. The kind of coverage we saw in March this year was absolutely brutal. Remember, this was the time when all things were pointing downward but the media weren't prepared to report it.

SuperMan

I predict that you will be right until you are wrong. On the other hand….

hey nutsnaps! real estate on super cycle! interest rate going lower than prairie sunset thanx to eastern u.i. nutbaggers! even garth turner will get 5 yr for 4 percents! vancouver fundamentaly ran out of land after hillcrest drivein townhoused!

"this is what satv think: 1,2,3…"

Could you work a little harder on the 'think' part?