Helmut and the winds of change
Just a couple of BC housing market forecasts courtesy of Helmut Pastrick, the Chief Economist of the Credit Union Central of British Columbia. This first one from a CBC news story, March 17th 2008:
A report by the Credit Union Central of British Columbia predicts housing prices will continue to rise by as much as 10 per cent this year and as much as seven per cent in 2009.
Lower mortgage rates, a tight labour market, high income growth and rising in-migration all point to continued high sales volumes and price rises, according the CUCBC’s chief economist Helmut Pastrick.
..and From today’s Globe and Mail, August 20th 2008:
The housing market will grow even weaker next year, Mr. Pastrick predicts.
The downturn in new construction will last through to the Olympics, and housing prices, down marginally from their peaks early this year, are likely to drop by 10 per cent before the market rebounds, he said. All told, British Columbia looks set to turn in weaker growth than the national average in 2009 after years of outperforming most of the rest of Canada.
A few weeks ago we posted a similar comparison of changing market outlook quotes from Cameron Muir, Chief Economist for the BC Real Estate Association.
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jesse Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
“housing prices will continue to rise by as much as 10 per cent this year”
“housing prices … are likely to drop by 10 per cent before the market rebounds”
That’s a whopping 20% difference. I am sure reporters will ask Mr. Pastrick the tough question: why the 20% change in forecast? I’ve always had a soft spot for Pastrick. I really think he’s trying to do a good job but he is so brutally bad at it. Kind of like a fat kid trying to run at the track in gym class.
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Mold City Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
These figures are absolutely guaranteed to be perfectly accurate within a range of plus or minus 100%
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ted Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
at least there was a few months between his changed position, not like the one week flip for muir.
Jesse, why they soft spot for Pastrick?
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blueskies Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
i remember the first time i got sick on the
roller coaster ….. not unlike this at all
5 X Predicting the Housing Market | Investing Intelligently Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
[...] Vancouver Condo Info posted two housing market forecasts from Helmut Pastrick, one from March 17th, 2008 and one from August 20th, 2008. They are remarkably different. [...]
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jesse Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“why they soft spot for Pastrick?”
I prefer to think he was trying his best and not a liar.
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I wont put my real name on this post Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Jesse, why they soft spot for Pastrick?
Would it not be strange if Jesse had a “hard” spot for Pastrick?
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patriotz Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Trying his best not to look like a complete idiot, that is.
If any of the usual suspects comes out and says there may be declines of up to 10% it means they are expecting a major bust.
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ted Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
I prefer to think he was trying his best and not a liar.
Fair enough, I was just curious I don’t know much about him other than his economic acuity seems to be lacking.
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freako Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
As much as I take exception to Helmut’s “forecasts” I also believe he acts/extrapolates in good faith. However, such a flip flop without an explanation of flaws in previous analysis is disingenious at best.
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Anonymous Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Mr Pastrick’s Resume
“Prior to joining Central in 1997, He spent many years with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation in BC responsible for analyzing and forecasting the provincial housing market and economy.”
No wonder, he worked for the CMHC, and for many years he has been “analyzing and forecasting”
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SuperMan Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Before everyone piles on, it might be worth keeping in mind that Mr. Helmut’s timing is considerably more spot-on than that of the bears who’ve been talking “fundamentals” for 4+ years. And I’ll wager his timing on the turn to the upside will likely also be better – since he seems to be the kind of guy who actually waits for evidence of a market turn to make Grand Predictions.
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VHB Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
“since he seems to be the kind of guy who actually waits for evidence of a market turn to make Grand Predictions.”
Um, Superman? Are you aware that ‘prediction’ means to foretell something **before** it happens?
I have been saying ‘fundamentals’ for 3 years. Prices have now started back on their journey to fundamentals. My prediction is coming true.
Pastrick on the other hand, ‘predicts’ that yesterday was Tuesday. Thanks for that.
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WBC Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
If the so called market analysts would actually know the direction the market is heading they would not yup about it to the general public, but would invest their own money accordingly. In other words they would be investors, not analysts. So expecting any kind of wisdom or accuracy from market analysts is about as pointless as expecting that bank’s financial advisor (making 40k a year) actually knows what he is doing.
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Timeless Stupidity Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
this is what satv think why we are diffrent from others.
Most Dangerous “bubble”formation and avoiding tools
1. INTRESTS RATEs:people buy property by keeping in mind intrests rate,but when governments or banks hikes intrests rate to control inflation thats type of cheating with previous emotion,that scare all the buyers and investors,prices of property is not big deal because intrests rates help people to decide the size of monthly payments.
CANADA : its good for canada that we have already seen the bubble blast its easy to protect our country by monitoring our condition now and we will be able to keep strong hold.
2.HURRICANES:When people see their homes are being drowned into water,flooding or in natural disaster that spoil the intrests to keep stability in confidence,and does not make futuristic approch.
CANADA:we are not experiencing firm or predicted natural disaster as seen in USA every year or so.
3.TERRORISM:state of terrorism scare, unlikely hold people back’ from buying anything because nature of attack and place can not be predicted where,when,why,what.
CANADA:we have very less threat or not at all because of our governing attitudes and foreign policy.
4.DEMAND:that is easy to figure out from inventory if units are selling or piling up(some time inventory pile up if reward is higher to sell).
CANADA:we have firm future projection and there is no reason seen so far why not there won’t be demand in future.
5.OVER SUPPLY:when lots of projects are on tracks but none of them have a gap in completion dates,that congest the out flow,if their is gap in completion dates,unless the next project complete temp investors or flipers can bail them self out on timely manners.
CANADA:there are lots of projects and lots of them has been completed successfuly for example freesia almost resold with in 1 year after.completion dates are vary from each other and so far there is no heavy listing of assignments after sold status.
6.RATES OF UNEMPLOYMENT/RATES OF PAY:increase and decrease in both of them change the level of mental strength.
CANADA:unemployement rates are down to 33 year low and rates of pay are picking up.
7.ECONOMY:When both fedral and provincial governments have budget surplus that can convince investor from world-wide and their is always hope for future tax cut which benifit the public directly.those are a great sign of strong economy.
CANADA:our economy is hot
8.BEST LIVEABLE CITY STATUS:Crime rates,weather condition,security,safety,transportation,transit system,and street levels play vital roles in ranking city in numbers or make them best liveable city.
CANADA:we have 2 best liveable cities and other are also nice and beautiful just these 2cities are metro so they have edge over others
9.POPULATION:stable status or merging ahead stats if those are in down turn trend thats not good for the city or country.
CANADA:population is firm and increasing projection is at higher rate
10.SERVICES:thats the most important part type of services and timing to travel,dine out delivery pick up,etc,etc,help decide the future of places..
CANADA:we have 24hrs conceirges,resturants and bars till late night and home delivery services we have electrics buses and sky-trains,etc,etc.
11.LAND:structure of area where the boom,if the land structure is avialable that increase the hope for more houses can be built and lots of land is avialable in the city or the country in similar situation.
CANADA:we have boom only in 10 to 12 cities in Vancouver all projects are being built in parking lots.
12.SUBPRIME:Our governments,economists,and financial institues are aware of all this the are very confidents sp does most of people about it ,there are more than 25% subprime case in USA compare to population thats lots and lots.
CANADA:we have less then 5% and compare to population and booming cities those are very less,less,and less.
Canada is newly built country then the rest of world our street levels highways and airports have stuning future,transit system is absolutely faboulous.services are remarkable,living standard is best.Health care and whistler squamish is a plus point for Vancouver and Canada as well.
Australia also have a similar situation like canada so their pop did not hurt big time as usa or japan hit.
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SuperMan Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
My prediction is coming true.
So by your own admission you’re 3 years late “predicting” a market that moves in ~5 year cycles. That’s not being “right”, that’s being a stuck clock.
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Even after they milked the Hong Kong thing Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Plus+ we are running out of land. Actually we ran out of land because all the rich people from everywhere came to live here after expo86.
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Even after they milked the Hong Kong thing Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
The bulls know this is the end.
Stay tunned and see how nasty the fools will get.
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Vansanity Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Well said VHB!
The market has been out of touch with fundamentals for some time. We all knew this and saw this coming. This would have happened sooner if it wasn’t for some slick new products (ie. 40 year zero down mortgage).
Predicting when these things will happen is difficult. Declines in price require a change in consumer confidence and their emotions. Nowadays, we’re seeing a return to fundamentals without the emotional change, ala the saturation of units for sale, affordability is gone and the profit margins for speculators and developers are gone. Consumer’s confidence and emotions will change soon enough and that’s when the prices will see a drop. Interest rates will be the final piece of the perfect storm puzzle.
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Lager not Logger Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Hasn’t this market been going up for more like 8 years? That’s 3 years over your approximate 5 year cycle.
I’ll make a prediction: Both Helmut and Cam will continue making soft landing predictions all the way down, just like Lereah in the States.
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Alistair Cookie Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
“Trying his best not to look like a complete idiot, that is.
If any of the usual suspects comes out and says there may be declines of up to 10% it means they are expecting a major bust.”
Agreed. I wonder how much of the pump in the market by the so called market experts was really based in fear of not wanting to be the outsider. You know, the guy/gal that ‘Is always negative and gloomy’?
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condohype Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
This is a great contrast of forecasts, but the flip-flop isn’t exclusive to the economist quoted above. Economic forecasts very rarely pan out, especially when they’re made by institutions with a vested interest in the outcome. It’s bunk by nature. Banks and credit unions are conservative, follow-the-pack institutions. They all copy each other because nobody wants to be accused of not doing what the competition’s doing.
The big issue is how these “expert” opinions keep getting published without challenge in the mainstream media. The kind of coverage we saw in March this year was absolutely brutal. Remember, this was the time when all things were pointing downward but the media weren’t prepared to report it.
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JR Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
SuperMan
I predict that you will be right until you are wrong. On the other hand….
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Drachen Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Arit
Off topic, but here’s me on Aug 14th
“That photo of a wet gorilla costume with chicken guts spread on top is about as convincing as anything the bulls have, I’ll give you that.”
And here’s the, “independent researcher” who examined the, “bigfoot body” yesterday.
“the body, which had been encased in a block of ice, was discovered to be a gorilla suit.”
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browntown Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
hey nutsnaps! real estate on super cycle! interest rate going lower than prairie sunset thanx to eastern u.i. nutbaggers! even garth turner will get 5 yr for 4 percents! vancouver fundamentaly ran out of land after hillcrest drivein townhoused!
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DonkeyXote Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
“this is what satv think: 1,2,3…”
Could you work a little harder on the ‘think’ part?
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Booya Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
“affordability is gone and the profit margins for speculators and developers are gone.”
Actually speculators are once again seeing big profit margins, only this time their margins happen to be negative.
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freako Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
So by your own admission you’re 3 years late “predicting” a market that moves in ~5 year cycles. That’s not being “right”, that’s being a stuck clock.
There we go with the clock cliche again.
My analogy:
A patient is seen by two doctors. Doctor A says that the man is terminally ill and probably has less than a year to live. Doctor B says that the man is perfectly healthy. After two years, the man is still alive but suddenly takes a turn for the worse. Doctor B now announces that the man will die soon.
According to Superman’s logic:
1. Doctor A wasn’t right, he was a stuck clock.
2. Doctor B’s prognosis was more spot on.
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cashisking Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
This is fun … just moved my rental up to $6500 a month – still at about %40 of the cost of capital … My friends in Europe, Asia and NY can’t believe people don’t see the tsunami coming! Short oil, short the banks long cash and good corporates …
Wake up people … Bernanke, Paulson and the gang were telling us everything was a o.k. last August but “admitted” there may be short term weakness but U.S. economy was fundamentally sound. THEY’RE CHEARLEADERS!!!!! …. smell the coffee!!!!
by the way – anyone checked out the commodity markets recently … our great gold/oil hope …. OVER!
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John Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
I’ve beem busy looking at condos in Prince George these last few days. I’ve bought a couple of then because I think Prince George is going to really take off after the olympics. The fact is you can analyze all you want but that doesn’t do a thing to this robust real estate market.
BC has none of the racial problems the US has. We don’t all want two car garages and big SUVs like the US. That’s why I invest in real estate here.
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freako Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
I think Prince George is going to really take off after the olympics. The fact is you can analyze all you want but that doesn’t do a thing to this robust real estate market.
WTF is that supposed to mean? The market is driven by some mysterious mojo?
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freako Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Oh, I forgot, John is the facetious fella. My bad.
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bdk Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
John is a brilliant man
John another benefit to buying all those condos ,that you leave empty waiting to sell to a rich asian, is obviously the free parking for your SUV collection.
An SUV collection that would even make Garth Turner proud
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arit Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
DRACHEN!!!
You got it, man. It was exactly as you predicted. If you are not IN on the conspiracy yourself (LOL?), give yourself 2 karma points. Let’s hope all your other predictions come true and we are all set. Will you wear that nice slightly used gorilla costume for the “after” party or stick with the bear suit?
Regards,
arit
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Drachen Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Superman
On top of Freako’s analysis of your BS I just have to add;
Who says Real Estate moves on a 5 year cycle? Can you look at a graph? If yes to the second question please do and tell me what the real estate graph of GVRD looks like to you. Does it look like it moves in a 5 year cycle? Now look at a graph of Tokyo’s Real Estate. Again, 5 year cycle? Final question. Exactly how stupid are you and/or how stupid do you think we are?
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Drachen Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
On another note Shiller has a new book out.
A brief quote;
“the most important single element to be reckoned with in understanding the housing debacle is the social contagion of boom thinking.” “The ultimate cause of the global financial crisis is the psychology of the real estate bubble.”
From the salon.com article (just skip the advertisement if it comes up)
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww.....on_nation/
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Inventory Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:17 am
August 1-20, 2008 (REBGV) SFH+APT+TH
Gross sales 575,438,109
Units Listed 3,234
Units sold 1,029
Avg Price/Unit 559,220
Active Listings 20,381
August 2007
Gross sales 2,052,078,282
Units Listed 4,630
Units sold 3,493
Avg Price/Unit 587,483
Active Listings 11,549
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Inventory Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:18 am
August 1-20, 2008 (Vancouver West)
Gross sales 137,350,232
Units Listed 605
Units sold 184
Avg Price/Unit 746,468
Active Listings 3,769
August 2007
Gross sales 587,010,733
Units Listed 834
Units sold 727
Avg Price/Unit 807,442
Active Listings 1,749
August 1-20, 2008 (Vancouver East)
Gross sales 66,047,700
Units Listed 365
Units sold 126
Avg Price/Unit 524,188
Active Listings 1,896
August 2007
Gross sales 168,597,577
Units Listed 478
Units sold 344
Avg Price/Unit 490,109
Active Listings 1,133
August 1-20, 2008 (Richmond)
Gross sales 46,243,905
Units Listed 456
Units sold 96
Avg Price/Unit 481,707
Active Listings 2,630
August 2007
Gross sales 253,479,526
Units Listed 598
Units sold 502
Avg Price/Unit 504,939
Active Listings 1,556
August 1-20, 2008 (Coquitlam)
Gross sales 37,871,100
Units Listed 262
Units sold 76
Avg Price/Unit 498,303
Active Listings 1,534
August 2007
Gross sales 122,727,155
Units Listed 398
Units sold 253
Avg Price/Unit 485,087
Active Listings 794
August 1-20, 2008 (North Vancouver)
Gross sales 53,306,542
Units Listed 158
Units sold 78
Avg Price/Unit 683,417
Active Listings 984
August 2007
Gross sales 149,089,494
Units Listed 257
Units sold 234
Avg Price/Unit 637,134
Active Listings 448
August 1-20, 2008 (West Vancouver)
Gross sales 31,964,000
Units Listed 71
Units sold 19
Avg Price/Unit 1,682,315
Active Listings 770
August 2007
Gross sales 147,513,220
Units Listed 131
Units sold 95
Avg Price/Unit 1,552,770
Active Listings 449
August 1-20, 2008 (Port Moody)
Gross sales 15,403,200
Units Listed 109
Units sold 32
Avg Price/Unit 481,350
Active Listings 601
August 2007
Gross sales 46,026,375
Units Listed 141
Units sold 101
Avg Price/Unit 455,706
Active Listings 287
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patriotz Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 5:05 am
Economic forecasts very rarely pan out,
True for macroeconomic forecasts, but analysis of fundamental value of an asset class is another matter. Asset prices always revert to fundamental value in long run. Nobody can time a market top or market bottom, but you can predict a return to fundamental value. RE bear markets always bottom out at or below rent equivalence. And no it’s not different this time.
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Rob/satv just a little reminder Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 5:49 am
“B.C is a haven for multi-millionaires
The Vancouver Sun
Thu 20 March 2008
British Columbia’s unprecedented housing market expansion will continue into 2009, as economic fundamentals and market conditions remain conducive to high sales volumes and rising prices, according to Credit Union Central of British Columbia’s latest forecast. “Lower mortgage rates, high income growth and rising in-migration through to 2009 are favourable trends supporting sales demand,” said Central’s Chief Economist, Helmut Pastrick. “Poor affordability for low-equity buyers due to high housing prices is the main restraint to even higher sales levels.”
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Ted Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 6:53 am
$85000 Flagship assignment, any offer accepted asap (yaletown/downtown)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....21482.html
“I want to sell this week so I will accept the best offer right away.”
Pay me $200,000 and I’ll take it…
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freako Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:27 am
British Columbia’s unprecedented housing market expansion will continue into 2009, as economic fundamentals and market conditions remain conducive to high sales volumes and rising prices
Yup, just like I stated earlier, Helmut sees “fundamentals” as a gas pedal. As long as his chosen conditions remain in place prices will always go up. Now what made him change his mind? Did his chosen conditions worsen, did he tweak his model, or did he read some of the local bear blogs and realize that he was barking up the wrong tree? Anyhow, clearly an attempt at salvaging credibility.
But other than unprecedented inventory pile up and minor price drops, what really changed over the past 5 months to warrant such a flip flop?
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Bluesman Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:29 am
For those tempted to catch a falling knife:
I was trying to find out whether it’s better to buy or rent using a buy vs rent calculator, but was unsuccessful because the calculator does not account for 50% declines in the price of the home purchase.
So instead, I turned the problem around and calculated how much extra I would save if I waited for the 50% off sale to occur in the next two to four years.
Situation:
Rent = $20,000 per year
Home price now = $500,000
Home price after 50% off sale = $250,000
Savings:
$250,000.00 principal + $229,853.64 (6% interest; 25 yr. amort) = $479853.64
$250,000.00 principal + $81,952.75 (6% interest; 10 yr. amort) = $331952.75
Rent for four years would be $20,000 X 4 = $80,000.
So net savings for waiting up to four years would be between
$251,952.75 and $399,853.64.
In fact, I could rent up to 19 years with the savings alone from the 25 year mortgage(assuming 4% annual rental increase)!
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John Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:48 am
You’d be throwing all that rent money away forever and missing out on the opportunity of a life time to own a piece of the best place on earth. This province and this city are the pinacle of what’s good in the world. I was just down at the beach today.
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jesse Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:55 am
“Now what made him change his mind?”
To be fair to the Helmet, he did say prices will revert to going up after the 10% drop. Now who’s the stopped clock?
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Bluesman Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 8:06 am
You’re probably wondering how much I would save if I would have taken out a 40 year amortization on the hypothetical purchase above…
Savings:
$250,000.00 principal + $404,105.55 (6% interest; 40 yr. amort) = $654,105.55
So add on another seven years or so (to a total of 25 yrs.) of rent payments:)
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 8:07 am
Speaking of beaches, We went to Oregon coast last weekend…
The comparison is… well, there is no comparison, really.
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John Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 8:32 am
Yeah the Oregon coast has nothing on the best place on earth. We’ve got the olympics too.
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 9:28 am
John,thanks for the great laugh on this otherwise miserable and gloomy morning!
You’re rock!
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Bubble Lad Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 9:44 am
pinocchio123 – would you care to elaborate on your comparison (I’ve never been to the Oregon coast).
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Bluesman Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 9:44 am
Yes, the beach looks lovely today, John. It may just be worth it to spend that extra half mil to have my 750 sq. feet of paradise NOW! Why wait for the 50% off sale when I can have it NOW? After all, I deserve it, don’t I?
http://www.katkam.ca/#pic
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Bluesman Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 9:48 am
Oregon coast cam:
looks like Long Beach near Tofino, no?
http://www.bandon.tv/
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 9:52 am
Firstly, I meant “John, you rock!”
And about Oregon Coast – well, they have actual beaches there.
Wide, sandy , unspoiled beaches, with sand dunes and all.
Just like I remember them from back home.
Here in Vancouver the “beaches” are… well, pathetic.
We sometimes go to Boundary Bay park in Tsawwassen with my dog and the beach there (one of the very few in GV) makes me laugh every time. And the park is a joke as well.
It would be good for people around here to start going places. Maybe then they’d realize how stupid the claims of the “best place on earth” actually are…
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raincity Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 10:00 am
Please don’t tell people about that coast!
Speaking of comparisons, who here has friends that have traveled outside of vancouver for extended periods of time (more than a couple weeks at a resort)? I’ve noticed a funny thing about these people, they no longer seem to see this as the best place on the planet and they start talking about moving away.. Why would that be?
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Bubble Lad Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 10:37 am
Thanks for the Oregon info pinochio. I agree Vancouverites seem to be blissfully unaware of the outside world, or at the very least never let it interfere with their fantasies. My favorite RE theme is people comparing property values in Vancouver to those in New York or Paris – a fair comparison until you remember THOSE ARE ACTUAL CITIES!!! Vancouver is a glorified lumber camp. We’ve yet to even hit the million mark in population (excluding the ‘burbs).
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pinocchio123 Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 11:18 am
I’ve been around and have seen my share of beautiful places. But I’ve also been working at the same, decent job for the last 10 years and it is the only reason why I have not moved yet. That and the fact that all my kids are now in high school and I feel bad about uprooting them right now.
Hopefully, once the two main reasons for me being stuck here vanish, I will no longer try and understand or get to like this place.
Vancouver, with its weird climate, non-existent social life, fake “culture” of wannabes and pretenders, outdated infrastructure, it’s disgusting (or amusing, depending how you look at it) cockiness and ignorance, and last, but not least its (un)real estate make me feel like vomiting every single day.
It’s a great place for casual visitors with lots of money, international drug lords, hollywood stars, porn stars, rock stars form Alberta, oil barons from Alberta, Abbottsford blueberry farmers, all kinds of small-time con-artists (which includes all the new starts of our real-estate industry), asian gangsters, european gangsters, east indian gangsters, hos and their pimps, a plethora of druggies, junkies and other miscellaneous misfits who find this place cozy and forgiving.. and most of all – the foundation of our city, the reason why Vancouver is so unique – all the ex-communists turned entrepreneurs who make their fortunes by employing political prisoners to manufacture all sorts of counterfeit goods being sold at night markets worldwide!
For the rest of us – normal, hardworking, law-obeying folk- this is no longer a good place to be IMO, let alone a best place on earth.
I know of few places out there that beat Vancouver in every possible category. And frankly my constant nausea is getting hard to cope with.
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John Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 11:19 am
I have no idea what any of you are talking about. What possible reason would anyone have to travel outside the best place on earth? I’ve done it and I’ve always regretted leaving the best place on earth. There’s no comparison to anything else. Take Delta for instance. There’s a happening place if I’ve ever seen one.
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Aleks Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Hasbro is releasing a new international version of monopoly, and the most expensive property on the board is… Montreal. Vancouver is only the third most expensive Canadian city in the game, behind Toronto as well. Not only does everyone not want to live here, now everyone doesn’t want to land here either.
link
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Patiently Waiting Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:07 pm
pinocchio123,
I can never sever my ties with Vancouver. My parents, siblings, cousins etc. are here. I escaped for over ten years, but here I am, back in hell.
Well it wasn’t so bad when I left in the 90s but it was declining. If you were here before 1986, perhaps you had a glimpse of the nice place this once was.
Urge to wander…is back
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freako Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Oregon coast cam:
looks like Long Beach near Tofino, no?
I can get to Cannon Beach,Oregon in, what, 4 hours? I can get to Long Beach, B.C. in, what, 7 hours?
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freako Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:22 pm
To be fair to the Helmet, he did say prices will revert to going up after the 10% drop.
Of course they will, inflation if nothing else will take care of that. When prices aren’t going down, they go up. Which is all fine by Pastrick because he lives in an absolute world.
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Bluesman Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Google maps says 5hrs. 21 min. to tofino and 6 hrs. 19 min. to Cannon Beach.
http://maps.google.com/
http://maps.google.com/
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Bluesman Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Well, the links lost the driving time, but you’ll have to trust me on that one:)
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wolfey Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
John,
I still can’t believe you comparing beaches here with Oregeon and other places like Floridas.. I posted earlier providing links on condos much cheaper in florida steps way from the beach where they have beautiful sand and water plus the obvious econ benefits of world renowned surfer/ beach volleyball events and you are still saying ..best place in the world…indicating the beach and the olympics. I’m sorry you are overexposed on the realestate in Fraser valley area but like any investment there are risks you win some you loose some…when you debate you are suppose to counter the other’s persoon point of view with unbiased evidence via links but you’re not… so people won’t listen. saying something over and over again is not constructive or true…just proves you lack the intellect to provide an insightful discussion.
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raincity Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
bluesman: I guess google maps never sat waiting in a ferry line-up eh? (or a border line up for that matter)
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stan the man Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Google maps doesn’t take ferry waits into consideration. I have spent as long as 10 hours to get from the island to home. Even border waits (with the rare exception of bomb threats) aren’t that bad.
As for Vancouver being a ‘world-class city’, I know several Chinese immigrants who only live here because they couldn’t emmigrate as easily into the US, and they regard Vancouver as–at best–a quaint backwater village compared to their great cities. Vancouver just happens to be a marginally acceptable city in Canada to them.
As for me…I only live here because my lucrative job is here, and it only exists in a couple of cities in Canada, and I have no desire to live in the ‘winter cities’ out east.
But jeesus, it was so damp and cold last night that I could see my breath condense in the air when I took the dog out for a walk. In August. California it ain’t.
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Condo Owner Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:06 pm
A 20% change is a drastic change. Hopefully there is some precedent to back up this claim otherwise it will cause a lot of undue worry for many.
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mk-kids Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:07 pm
“Take Delta for instance. There’s a happening place if I’ve ever seen one.”
ROFLMAO! You’re a gem John!
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Bluesman Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:33 pm
FWIW the last time I drove from Tofino it took me just about 10 hours from Tofino to Vancouver. That included a short tea break in Port Alberni and a little stretch at Cathedral Grove Park. We just missed the ferry at Nanaimo and had to wait a few hours for the next ferry which was delayed because apparently someone flushed a diaper down the toilet in the ferry? Is this a plausible reason to delay take-off for 2 hours? Whatever…
http://www.worldofstock.com/closeups/NTR2264.php
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anon_ted Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:35 pm
i
pinocchio thanks for the good post. A good read. I am an ex vancouverite that lives now in Calgary. I frequently return as all my family is in Vancouver. I would like to add to what you wrote. I always tell people there are no good jobs in Vanouver but you brought up some good points. It is a good city for certain niche(gimicky) industries. And its good for criminals. Or those lucky enough to get a job in a crown corporation.
It was funny you mention vancouver’s non existent social life. I always hated vancouver’s non existent cutlure. But now that I am in Calgary I love it. And its funny half of calgary is from saskatchewan and they all thinkg Calgary is happening. In short Calgary is heaven for people from Saskatchewan and Vancouver is heaven for people from Alberta.
But next to real cities both are boring. I was with friends from Calgary and we did a day trip to Seattle. They all loved seattle better.
I was talking to some family how I loved Calgary’s job market but hated the lack of life and I was told you can’t have it all. Then I mentioned how Seattle had it all. There response was but they don’t have the mountains and ocean. I corrected them and told them not only they were wrong but how my friends even thought seattle was prettier and nicer. All I got was silence.
It amazes me how vancouverites can not only be ignorant of the outside world but of a city 2 hours away.
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John Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Vancouver is the most multicultural society in the world. Between Delta, Surrey and Richmond we have half of asia right there. There’s even a few persians here now. Anyway the reason why Seattle is inferior to the best place on earth is that it’s in America. Vancouverites will not venture into America except to buy gas and cheese for fear of running into George Bush and Dick Cheney. I don’t mind America but I prefer the best place on earth.
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freako Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Google maps says 5hrs. 21 min. to tofino
As mentioned, this ignores ferries. Add two hours at minimum. No matter how you slice it or dice it, one can get to Cannon Beach faster than one can get to Long Beach. And without the hassles of ferry schedules or ferry lineups. Worst case scenario is a border wait.
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Bluesman Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Go here if you want to have fun in Vancouver
http://www.citysalsavibe.com/
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jesse Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:04 pm
“But next to real cities both are boring.”
Depends what floats your boat. I know some who have lived in other cities and have moved back to Vancouver for the slower pace of life. By standard measures of boringness I agree with you tho not everyone likes the Studio 54 life.
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Rob A. Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Someone in the other thread asked where I moved too, I moved too waterfront at Spadina and Queens Quay.
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Lager not Logger Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Rob A, don’t you miss the ‘action’ of downtown Vancouver?
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jesse Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:36 pm
“I moved too waterfront at Spadina and Queens Quay.”
There are some nice condos there and the streetcars are close by. Worse places to be in the scheme of things. Too bad there aren’t too many RE bull/bear feces-flinging blogs out that way …
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Drachen Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Lager
Rob left Vancouver. He’s in Toronto now.
He took the action with him (I think there’s a lot of wrist movement in his kind of action).
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John Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:46 pm
You all laugh at Rob for moving to Toronto and I can see why. How could someone leave the best place on earth for a dump like Toronto? Anyway I think Rob missed out on some of the best opportunities around. There’s tons of selection out there in the condo market.
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Thums up2 Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 2:48 pm
VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN
When economists or experts make predictions or do analysis those are all based on data available to them be it Cameron or Pastrick the only point they have missed is that they are unable to give a shit to cheater who bounce in and out in greed to make money otherwise there is nothing to beat their super vision(please compare the peak btw.81,91,and 2008) no one like to nail down the usuall suspects like domestic idiots or gamblers but as far as it is concern to Vancouver real estate there is no down turn in decades to come.
Majority of cheater can make fool out of some one for six month,a deep bound takes six months to heel but there is no need to panic of temporarily gamblers they will be disappointed because realtors fee is equal to 10% of the total amount but rents are up and coming $5000 / 2br – Furnished Robson & Cambie PostingID: 806480154
I wish i should have bought some condo before Brittanny and Christina but then seniority count by date of birth and when we start our profession as i came late up to there so i don’t really feel sorry but i am glad that i have bought some condo in Vancouver,B.C while Jesica Simpson bhought in California “oh my god” I am willing to sing
Vancouver,B.C.THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH.”where smart buyers and fool seller will be countinue”-Nelly Furtado
http://www.aolcdn.com/aolr/2-n.....061107.jpg
From the sold out sellers i have learned that no body sold in loss so far in conclusion “There is only one way exit to vancouver real estate”.UP,UP,& UP.
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Bubble Lad Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Spadina and Queen’s Quay! Oh man! Is Rob A in for a surprise come February! That area is like Siberia with -30 and gale force winds whipping in off the lake! You can’t be serious! Now I’m the one LMAO!
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jesse Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 4:29 pm
“That area is like Siberia with -30 and gale force winds whipping in off the lake!”
Can’t beat the view though, no matter which way you face: the airport, Skydome, Gardiner Expressway, or the railway tracks.
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jesse Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Yongue and Bloor in Feb is no treat either. May not be on the lake but it’s a freaking wind tunnel. Yaletown may have rain and no culture but at least my eyelids don’t freeze shut on my way to work. Vancouver may sux brass monkey ballz but at least the ballz don’t freeze off.
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jules Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Do people in Toronto talk about Vancouver as much as Vancouverites talk about Toronto? I hear a lot about Toronto here, even on the nightly news when they were talking about the Monopoly thing the newscaster had a strange attitude about ’some city in southern ontario’. Do people believe that talking down other cities will make theirs seem better?
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jesse Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 5:02 pm
“Do people believe that talking down other cities will make theirs seem better?”
Yes. It’s worked so far. Just ask John.
When in Toronto my eyelids did freeze shut. The city has many redeeming qualities, just not enough for those that don’t like frozen eyelids. Like me.
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scullboy Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 5:11 pm
I will say this, Rob did manage to move himself into one of the most Yaletown-y areas of TO. Ovecrwded, pverpriced show boxes.
Weird because Toronto’s a lot cheaper and if you care to look there are some nice units in some rock solid buildings.
Sweet Jesus that’s gonna be cold in Feb. I’d rather live at Yonge and Eglington….. loads going on, nicer little neighborhoods, way less expensive. Or near Kensington for that matter, or Greektown.
Oh well best of luck Rob. Sept and Oct are really the only 2 acceptable months out that way. Oh and June, sometimes…..
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browntown Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 5:43 pm
hey buttsnaps! hey rob eh, look in toronto for garth turner and matts sundin! tell garth turner to come with land making machine to vancouver! maybe build up beaches a bit to look like oregan! ha ha
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VHB Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 6:31 pm
“Do people in Toronto talk about Vancouver as much as Vancouverites talk about Toronto?”
No; almost not at all. People in Toronto only care about New York. Vancouver is not terribly relevant to anything except for vacations.
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For Sale by Owner/Reduced Price/Open Every Weekend Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 6:31 pm
http://www.movesmartly.com/200.....turne.html
Rob, I noticed when you aren’t posting incessantly on your blog, you get onto this one as Satv, Rob A Browntown etc.
Perhaps I am the only one whose made the connection or perhaps the rest of the regulars enjoy the entertainment.
Anyhow check out the above link.
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Round up the usual suspects Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Helmut has plenty of company:
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Bill Good, Robyn Adamanche, Don Campbell, Muir, Phil Soper, Carol Frketich
Rudy Nielsen , Ozzie Jurock,
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ReductiMat Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:24 pm
It seems most people from the west have a hate-on for Toronto. I ain’t no psychologist, but it sounds something like penis-envy to me (whether warranted or not is another topic).
My suggestion? Get over it people.
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VHB Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:44 pm
“It seems most people from the west have a hate-on for Toronto.”
Made all the more frustrating by the fact that they don’t care whether BC exists.
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browntown Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:46 pm
yeah nutslaps! i posted on garth turners blog, spread the love to eastern bagslaps!
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Bubble Lad Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 7:46 pm
I lived in Toronto for ten years. I agree with two things: people there could care less about Vancouver. It’s just not even on the radar.
I don’t hate Toronto. There’s a lot to recommend it. But the weather is AWFUL. You can’t go out in the summer because of the ungodly heat and pollution, and winter is pretty much self explanatory. But Vancouver has plenty about it that blows chunks too. Neither one should be pointing fingers.
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bdk Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Satv/Krish
I hate to break it to you but there is plenty of land left in B.C. and they can always re claim land and even then there are enough new condos coming to make prices drop for decades to come.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation
Here are some of the world class cities that have done so:
Land reclamation is the creation of new land where there was once water. Notable examples in the West include parts of New Orleans; Washington, D.C. (which is partially built on land that was once swamp); Mexico City (which is situated at the former site of Lake Texcoco); Helsinki (of which the major part of the city center is built on reclaimed land); the Cape Town foreshore; the Chicago shoreline; the Manila Bay shoreline; Back Bay, Boston, Massachusetts; Battery Park City, Manhattan; the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium; the polders of the Netherlands; and the Toronto Islands, Leslie Street Spit, and the waterfront in Toronto. In the Far East, Japan, the southern Chinese cities of Hong Kong and Macau, and the city-state of Singapore, where land is in short supply, are also famous for their efforts on land reclamation. One of the earliest and famous project was the Praya Reclamation Scheme, which added 50 to 60 acres of land in 1890 during the second phase of construction. It was one of the most ambitious projects ever taken during the Colonial Hong Kong era.[1] Some 20% of land in the Tokyo Bay area has been reclaimed.[2] Monaco and the British territory of Gibraltar are also expanding due to land reclamation. The city of Rio de Janeiro was largely built on reclaimed land.
Artificial islands are an example of land reclamation. Creating an artificial island is an expensive and risky undertaking. It is often considered in places that are densely populated and flat land is scarce. Kansai International Airport (in Osaka) and Hong Kong International Airport are examples where this process was deemed necessary. The Palm Islands, The World and hotel Burj al-Arab off Dubai in the United Arab Emirates are other examples of artificial islands.
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Brittanny Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Thums up2. You are at the “desparation” point. You are bordering on “panic”. Only “despair” and “acceptance” to go.It can be a long journey, but you will get there.
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Drachen Says:
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:52 am
Jesse
“sux brass monkey ballz but at least the ballz don’t freeze off.”
Funny story, do you know how the expression “cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.” came to be?
On old fighting ships they’d keep the cannon balls in a pyramid, to keep them from rolling away there was a brass plate bolted to the deck with impressions for the balls to sit in. That plate was called a ‘monkey’ and because of the difference in expansion between the two metals when the ship sailed into very cold weather the monkey would contract more than the iron balls causing the balls to ‘freeze off’.
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betamax Says:
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:25 am
from the net (other sites say the same):
“What is the origin of the term ‘brass monkey’?
The story goes that cannonballs used to be stored aboard ship in piles, on a brass frame or tray called a ‘monkey’. In very cold weather the brass would contract, spilling the cannonballs: hence very cold weather is ‘cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey’. There are several problems with this story. The first is that the term ‘monkey’ is not otherwise recorded as the name for such an object. The second is that the rate of contraction of brass in cold temperatures is unlikely to be sufficient to cause the reputed effect. The third is that the phrase is actually first recorded as ‘freeze the tail off a brass monkey’, which removes any essential connection with balls. It therefore seems most likely that the phrase is simply a ribald allusion to the fact that metal figures will become very cold to the touch in cold weather (and some materials will become brittle).”
Aside from all that, the balls were stored flat in the tray, not stacked. Why would anyone stack balls in a pyramid on a ship when any significant pitch would send them rolling every which way?
From another site:
“Other seafaring monkey business relates to ancient forms of cannon called a brass monkeys, or drakes, or dogs. These were recorded in an inventory published in 1650 – The articles of the rendition of Edenburgh-Castle to the Lord Generall Cromwel:
“Short Brasse Munkeys alias Dogs.”
Brass drakes/monkeys were referred to in J. Heath’s Flagellum, 1663: “Twenty-eight Brass Drakes called Monkeys” and in The Taking of St. Esprit in Harlech, 1627: “Two drakes upon the half deck, being brass, of sacker bore”.
There’s also a nautical reference from 1822 for the monkey tail which appears in the earliest known version of the phrase. This was a lever that was used to aim a cannon.
It might sound like the work of CANOE (the Committee to Ascribe a Naval Origin to Everything) but, given these citations and the large percentage of references to brass monkeys in nautical contexts, it seems likely that the inanimate object in question was in fact a naval cannon. The ‘balls’ are a recent appendage.”
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Bubble Lad Says:
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:27 am
bdk – that’s not even counting the underused RE right in the downtown core – walk around a few blocks pretty much anywhere in Vancouver and count the number of parking lots, abandoned muffler repair shops, single story and single use buildings, empty lots, and you can easily see what a pile of crap that argument is. That’s not even counting the enormous swath of North Vancouver land owned by the Guiness family I presume their keeping off the market to keep prices up.
It’s not a land problem, it’s a ZONING problem. And since developers own this town, that’s not going to change any time soon. There are TONS of options available (including the one you mention) – we just choose not to use them. Hell, you’ve got Bowen Island sitting 10 minute ferry ride away, but it will never be developed because it’s become Vancouver’s largest gated community.
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jesse Says:
August 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
“do you know how the expression “cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.” came to be?”
I’d have to be crazier than a sh!thouse rat to NOT know that story. That said, it appears my expression has an unfortunate unintended interpretation.
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Kal Says:
September 3rd, 2008 at 4:46 pm
north american realestate is likely headed for a crash like in the 80’s because people who need starter homes and come from middle and lower class familys just cant afford them anymore and this creates a surplus of renters. This is why its a major fucking buyers market. Oh and also who cares about the olympics i think people base economcs on this wayyy too much