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Helmut and the winds of change

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Just a couple of BC housing market forecasts courtesy of Helmut Pastrick, the Chief Economist of the Credit Union Central of British Columbia. This first one from a CBC news story, March 17th 2008:

 A report by the Credit Union Central of British Columbia predicts housing prices will continue to rise by as much as 10 per cent this year and as much as seven per cent in 2009.

Lower mortgage rates, a tight labour market, high income growth and rising in-migration all point to continued high sales volumes and price rises, according the CUCBC’s chief economist Helmut Pastrick.

..and From today’s Globe and Mail, August 20th 2008:

The housing market will grow even weaker next year, Mr. Pastrick predicts.

The downturn in new construction will last through to the Olympics, and housing prices, down marginally from their peaks early this year, are likely to drop by 10 per cent before the market rebounds, he said. All told, British Columbia looks set to turn in weaker growth than the national average in 2009 after years of outperforming most of the rest of Canada.

A few weeks ago we posted a similar comparison of changing market outlook quotes from Cameron Muir, Chief Economist for the BC Real Estate Association.

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Kal

north american realestate is likely headed for a crash like in the 80's because people who need starter homes and come from middle and lower class familys just cant afford them anymore and this creates a surplus of renters. This is why its a major fucking buyers market. Oh and also who cares about the olympics i think people base economcs on this wayyy too much

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jesse

"do you know how the expression “cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.” came to be?"

I'd have to be crazier than a sh!thouse rat to NOT know that story. That said, it appears my expression has an unfortunate unintended interpretation.

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Bubble Lad

bdk – that's not even counting the underused RE right in the downtown core – walk around a few blocks pretty much anywhere in Vancouver and count the number of parking lots, abandoned muffler repair shops, single story and single use buildings, empty lots, and you can easily see what a pile of crap that argument is. That's not even counting the enormous swath of North Vancouver land owned by the Guiness family I presume their keeping off the market to keep prices up. It's not a land problem, it's a ZONING problem. And since developers own this town, that's not going to change any time soon. There are TONS of options available (including the one you mention) – we just choose not to use them. Hell, you've got Bowen Island sitting 10 minute ferry ride away, but it will… Read more »

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betamax

from the net (other sites say the same): "What is the origin of the term 'brass monkey'? The story goes that cannonballs used to be stored aboard ship in piles, on a brass frame or tray called a 'monkey'. In very cold weather the brass would contract, spilling the cannonballs: hence very cold weather is 'cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey'. There are several problems with this story. The first is that the term 'monkey' is not otherwise recorded as the name for such an object. The second is that the rate of contraction of brass in cold temperatures is unlikely to be sufficient to cause the reputed effect. The third is that the phrase is actually first recorded as 'freeze the tail off a brass monkey', which removes any essential connection with balls. It therefore… Read more »

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Drachen

Jesse

"sux brass monkey ballz but at least the ballz don’t freeze off."

Funny story, do you know how the expression "cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey." came to be?

On old fighting ships they'd keep the cannon balls in a pyramid, to keep them from rolling away there was a brass plate bolted to the deck with impressions for the balls to sit in. That plate was called a 'monkey' and because of the difference in expansion between the two metals when the ship sailed into very cold weather the monkey would contract more than the iron balls causing the balls to 'freeze off'.

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Brittanny

Thums up2. You are at the "desparation" point. You are bordering on "panic". Only "despair" and "acceptance" to go.It can be a long journey, but you will get there.

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bdk

Satv/Krish I hate to break it to you but there is plenty of land left in B.C. and they can always re claim land and even then there are enough new condos coming to make prices drop for decades to come. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation Here are some of the world class cities that have done so: Land reclamation is the creation of new land where there was once water. Notable examples in the West include parts of New Orleans; Washington, D.C. (which is partially built on land that was once swamp); Mexico City (which is situated at the former site of Lake Texcoco); Helsinki (of which the major part of the city center is built on reclaimed land); the Cape Town foreshore; the Chicago shoreline; the Manila Bay shoreline; Back Bay, Boston, Massachusetts; Battery Park City, Manhattan; the port of Zeebrugge in… Read more »

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Bubble Lad

I lived in Toronto for ten years. I agree with two things: people there could care less about Vancouver. It's just not even on the radar.

I don't hate Toronto. There's a lot to recommend it. But the weather is AWFUL. You can't go out in the summer because of the ungodly heat and pollution, and winter is pretty much self explanatory. But Vancouver has plenty about it that blows chunks too. Neither one should be pointing fingers.

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browntown

yeah nutslaps! i posted on garth turners blog, spread the love to eastern bagslaps!

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VHB

"It seems most people from the west have a hate-on for Toronto."

Made all the more frustrating by the fact that they don't care whether BC exists.

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ReductiMat

It seems most people from the west have a hate-on for Toronto. I ain't no psychologist, but it sounds something like penis-envy to me (whether warranted or not is another topic).

My suggestion? Get over it people.

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Round up the usual s

Helmut has plenty of company:

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Bill Good, Robyn Adamanche, Don Campbell, Muir, Phil Soper, Carol Frketich

Rudy Nielsen , Ozzie Jurock,

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For Sale by Owner/Re

http://www.movesmartly.com/2008/08/did-garth-turn…

Rob, I noticed when you aren't posting incessantly on your blog, you get onto this one as Satv, Rob A Browntown etc.

Perhaps I am the only one whose made the connection or perhaps the rest of the regulars enjoy the entertainment.

Anyhow check out the above link.

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VHB

"Do people in Toronto talk about Vancouver as much as Vancouverites talk about Toronto?"

No; almost not at all. People in Toronto only care about New York. Vancouver is not terribly relevant to anything except for vacations.

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browntown

hey buttsnaps! hey rob eh, look in toronto for garth turner and matts sundin! tell garth turner to come with land making machine to vancouver! maybe build up beaches a bit to look like oregan! ha ha

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scullboy

I will say this, Rob did manage to move himself into one of the most Yaletown-y areas of TO. Ovecrwded, pverpriced show boxes.

Weird because Toronto's a lot cheaper and if you care to look there are some nice units in some rock solid buildings.

Sweet Jesus that's gonna be cold in Feb. I'd rather live at Yonge and Eglington….. loads going on, nicer little neighborhoods, way less expensive. Or near Kensington for that matter, or Greektown.

Oh well best of luck Rob. Sept and Oct are really the only 2 acceptable months out that way. Oh and June, sometimes…..

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jesse

"Do people believe that talking down other cities will make theirs seem better?"

Yes. It's worked so far. Just ask John.

When in Toronto my eyelids did freeze shut. The city has many redeeming qualities, just not enough for those that don't like frozen eyelids. Like me.

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jules

Do people in Toronto talk about Vancouver as much as Vancouverites talk about Toronto? I hear a lot about Toronto here, even on the nightly news when they were talking about the Monopoly thing the newscaster had a strange attitude about 'some city in southern ontario'. Do people believe that talking down other cities will make theirs seem better?

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jesse

Yongue and Bloor in Feb is no treat either. May not be on the lake but it's a freaking wind tunnel. Yaletown may have rain and no culture but at least my eyelids don't freeze shut on my way to work. Vancouver may sux brass monkey ballz but at least the ballz don't freeze off.

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jesse

"That area is like Siberia with -30 and gale force winds whipping in off the lake!"

Can't beat the view though, no matter which way you face: the airport, Skydome, Gardiner Expressway, or the railway tracks.

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Bubble Lad

Spadina and Queen's Quay! Oh man! Is Rob A in for a surprise come February! That area is like Siberia with -30 and gale force winds whipping in off the lake! You can't be serious! Now I'm the one LMAO!

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Thums up2

VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE NEVER GO DOWN When economists or experts make predictions or do analysis those are all based on data available to them be it Cameron or Pastrick the only point they have missed is that they are unable to give a shit to cheater who bounce in and out in greed to make money otherwise there is nothing to beat their super vision(please compare the peak btw.81,91,and 2008) no one like to nail down the usuall suspects like domestic idiots or gamblers but as far as it is concern to Vancouver real estate there is no down turn in decades to come. Majority of cheater can make fool out of some one for six month,a deep bound takes six months to heel but there is no need to panic of temporarily gamblers they will be disappointed because realtors… Read more »

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John

You all laugh at Rob for moving to Toronto and I can see why. How could someone leave the best place on earth for a dump like Toronto? Anyway I think Rob missed out on some of the best opportunities around. There's tons of selection out there in the condo market.

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Drachen

Lager

Rob left Vancouver. He's in Toronto now.

He took the action with him (I think there's a lot of wrist movement in his kind of action).

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jesse

"I moved too waterfront at Spadina and Queens Quay."

There are some nice condos there and the streetcars are close by. Worse places to be in the scheme of things. Too bad there aren't too many RE bull/bear feces-flinging blogs out that way … 🙁

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