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August 21st, 2008 at 9:44 am
pinocchio123 – would you care to elaborate on your comparison (I’ve never been to the Oregon coast).
August 21st, 2008 at 9:28 am
John,thanks for the great laugh on this otherwise miserable and gloomy morning!
You’re rock!
August 21st, 2008 at 8:32 am
Yeah the Oregon coast has nothing on the best place on earth. We’ve got the olympics too.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:07 am
Speaking of beaches, We went to Oregon coast last weekend…
The comparison is… well, there is no comparison, really.
August 21st, 2008 at 8:06 am
You’re probably wondering how much I would save if I would have taken out a 40 year amortization on the hypothetical purchase above…
Savings:
$250,000.00 principal + $404,105.55 (6% interest; 40 yr. amort) = $654,105.55
So add on another seven years or so (to a total of 25 yrs.) of rent payments:)
August 21st, 2008 at 7:55 am
“Now what made him change his mind?”
To be fair to the Helmet, he did say prices will revert to going up after the 10% drop. Now who’s the stopped clock?
August 21st, 2008 at 7:48 am
You’d be throwing all that rent money away forever and missing out on the opportunity of a life time to own a piece of the best place on earth. This province and this city are the pinacle of what’s good in the world. I was just down at the beach today.
August 21st, 2008 at 7:29 am
For those tempted to catch a falling knife:
I was trying to find out whether it’s better to buy or rent using a buy vs rent calculator, but was unsuccessful because the calculator does not account for 50% declines in the price of the home purchase.
So instead, I turned the problem around and calculated how much extra I would save if I waited for the 50% off sale to occur in the next two to four years.
Situation:
Rent = $20,000 per year
Home price now = $500,000
Home price after 50% off sale = $250,000
Savings:
$250,000.00 principal + $229,853.64 (6% interest; 25 yr. amort) = $479853.64
$250,000.00 principal + $81,952.75 (6% interest; 10 yr. amort) = $331952.75
Rent for four years would be $20,000 X 4 = $80,000.
So net savings for waiting up to four years would be between
$251,952.75 and $399,853.64.
In fact, I could rent up to 19 years with the savings alone from the 25 year mortgage(assuming 4% annual rental increase)!
August 21st, 2008 at 7:27 am
British Columbia’s unprecedented housing market expansion will continue into 2009, as economic fundamentals and market conditions remain conducive to high sales volumes and rising prices
Yup, just like I stated earlier, Helmut sees “fundamentals” as a gas pedal. As long as his chosen conditions remain in place prices will always go up. Now what made him change his mind? Did his chosen conditions worsen, did he tweak his model, or did he read some of the local bear blogs and realize that he was barking up the wrong tree? Anyhow, clearly an attempt at salvaging credibility.
But other than unprecedented inventory pile up and minor price drops, what really changed over the past 5 months to warrant such a flip flop?
August 21st, 2008 at 6:53 am
$85000 Flagship assignment, any offer accepted asap (yaletown/downtown)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.....21482.html
“I want to sell this week so I will accept the best offer right away.”
Pay me $200,000 and I’ll take it…
August 21st, 2008 at 5:49 am
“B.C is a haven for multi-millionaires
The Vancouver Sun
Thu 20 March 2008
British Columbia’s unprecedented housing market expansion will continue into 2009, as economic fundamentals and market conditions remain conducive to high sales volumes and rising prices, according to Credit Union Central of British Columbia’s latest forecast. “Lower mortgage rates, high income growth and rising in-migration through to 2009 are favourable trends supporting sales demand,” said Central’s Chief Economist, Helmut Pastrick. “Poor affordability for low-equity buyers due to high housing prices is the main restraint to even higher sales levels.”
August 21st, 2008 at 5:05 am
Economic forecasts very rarely pan out,
True for macroeconomic forecasts, but analysis of fundamental value of an asset class is another matter. Asset prices always revert to fundamental value in long run. Nobody can time a market top or market bottom, but you can predict a return to fundamental value. RE bear markets always bottom out at or below rent equivalence. And no it’s not different this time.
August 21st, 2008 at 2:18 am
August 1-20, 2008 (Vancouver West)
Gross sales 137,350,232
Units Listed 605
Units sold 184
Avg Price/Unit 746,468
Active Listings 3,769
August 2007
Gross sales 587,010,733
Units Listed 834
Units sold 727
Avg Price/Unit 807,442
Active Listings 1,749
August 1-20, 2008 (Vancouver East)
Gross sales 66,047,700
Units Listed 365
Units sold 126
Avg Price/Unit 524,188
Active Listings 1,896
August 2007
Gross sales 168,597,577
Units Listed 478
Units sold 344
Avg Price/Unit 490,109
Active Listings 1,133
August 1-20, 2008 (Richmond)
Gross sales 46,243,905
Units Listed 456
Units sold 96
Avg Price/Unit 481,707
Active Listings 2,630
August 2007
Gross sales 253,479,526
Units Listed 598
Units sold 502
Avg Price/Unit 504,939
Active Listings 1,556
August 1-20, 2008 (Coquitlam)
Gross sales 37,871,100
Units Listed 262
Units sold 76
Avg Price/Unit 498,303
Active Listings 1,534
August 2007
Gross sales 122,727,155
Units Listed 398
Units sold 253
Avg Price/Unit 485,087
Active Listings 794
August 1-20, 2008 (North Vancouver)
Gross sales 53,306,542
Units Listed 158
Units sold 78
Avg Price/Unit 683,417
Active Listings 984
August 2007
Gross sales 149,089,494
Units Listed 257
Units sold 234
Avg Price/Unit 637,134
Active Listings 448
August 1-20, 2008 (West Vancouver)
Gross sales 31,964,000
Units Listed 71
Units sold 19
Avg Price/Unit 1,682,315
Active Listings 770
August 2007
Gross sales 147,513,220
Units Listed 131
Units sold 95
Avg Price/Unit 1,552,770
Active Listings 449
August 1-20, 2008 (Port Moody)
Gross sales 15,403,200
Units Listed 109
Units sold 32
Avg Price/Unit 481,350
Active Listings 601
August 2007
Gross sales 46,026,375
Units Listed 141
Units sold 101
Avg Price/Unit 455,706
Active Listings 287
August 21st, 2008 at 2:17 am
August 1-20, 2008 (REBGV) SFH+APT+TH
Gross sales 575,438,109
Units Listed 3,234
Units sold 1,029
Avg Price/Unit 559,220
Active Listings 20,381
August 2007
Gross sales 2,052,078,282
Units Listed 4,630
Units sold 3,493
Avg Price/Unit 587,483
Active Listings 11,549
August 20th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
On another note Shiller has a new book out.
A brief quote;
“the most important single element to be reckoned with in understanding the housing debacle is the social contagion of boom thinking.” “The ultimate cause of the global financial crisis is the psychology of the real estate bubble.”
From the salon.com article (just skip the advertisement if it comes up)
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww.....on_nation/
August 20th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Superman
On top of Freako’s analysis of your BS I just have to add;
Who says Real Estate moves on a 5 year cycle? Can you look at a graph? If yes to the second question please do and tell me what the real estate graph of GVRD looks like to you. Does it look like it moves in a 5 year cycle? Now look at a graph of Tokyo’s Real Estate. Again, 5 year cycle? Final question. Exactly how stupid are you and/or how stupid do you think we are?
August 20th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
DRACHEN!!!
You got it, man. It was exactly as you predicted. If you are not IN on the conspiracy yourself (LOL?), give yourself 2 karma points. Let’s hope all your other predictions come true and we are all set. Will you wear that nice slightly used gorilla costume for the “after” party or stick with the bear suit?
Regards,
arit
August 20th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
John is a brilliant man
John another benefit to buying all those condos ,that you leave empty waiting to sell to a rich asian, is obviously the free parking for your SUV collection.
An SUV collection that would even make Garth Turner proud
August 20th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Oh, I forgot, John is the facetious fella. My bad.
August 20th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
I think Prince George is going to really take off after the olympics. The fact is you can analyze all you want but that doesn’t do a thing to this robust real estate market.
WTF is that supposed to mean? The market is driven by some mysterious mojo?
August 20th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
I’ve beem busy looking at condos in Prince George these last few days. I’ve bought a couple of then because I think Prince George is going to really take off after the olympics. The fact is you can analyze all you want but that doesn’t do a thing to this robust real estate market.
BC has none of the racial problems the US has. We don’t all want two car garages and big SUVs like the US. That’s why I invest in real estate here.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
This is fun … just moved my rental up to $6500 a month – still at about %40 of the cost of capital … My friends in Europe, Asia and NY can’t believe people don’t see the tsunami coming! Short oil, short the banks long cash and good corporates …
Wake up people … Bernanke, Paulson and the gang were telling us everything was a o.k. last August but “admitted” there may be short term weakness but U.S. economy was fundamentally sound. THEY’RE CHEARLEADERS!!!!! …. smell the coffee!!!!
by the way – anyone checked out the commodity markets recently … our great gold/oil hope …. OVER!
August 20th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
So by your own admission you’re 3 years late “predicting” a market that moves in ~5 year cycles. That’s not being “right”, that’s being a stuck clock.
There we go with the clock cliche again.
My analogy:
A patient is seen by two doctors. Doctor A says that the man is terminally ill and probably has less than a year to live. Doctor B says that the man is perfectly healthy. After two years, the man is still alive but suddenly takes a turn for the worse. Doctor B now announces that the man will die soon.
According to Superman’s logic:
1. Doctor A wasn’t right, he was a stuck clock.
2. Doctor B’s prognosis was more spot on.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
“affordability is gone and the profit margins for speculators and developers are gone.”
Actually speculators are once again seeing big profit margins, only this time their margins happen to be negative.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
“this is what satv think: 1,2,3…”
Could you work a little harder on the ‘think’ part?
August 20th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
hey nutsnaps! real estate on super cycle! interest rate going lower than prairie sunset thanx to eastern u.i. nutbaggers! even garth turner will get 5 yr for 4 percents! vancouver fundamentaly ran out of land after hillcrest drivein townhoused!
August 20th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Arit
Off topic, but here’s me on Aug 14th
“That photo of a wet gorilla costume with chicken guts spread on top is about as convincing as anything the bulls have, I’ll give you that.”
And here’s the, “independent researcher” who examined the, “bigfoot body” yesterday.
“the body, which had been encased in a block of ice, was discovered to be a gorilla suit.”
August 20th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
SuperMan
I predict that you will be right until you are wrong. On the other hand….
August 20th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
This is a great contrast of forecasts, but the flip-flop isn’t exclusive to the economist quoted above. Economic forecasts very rarely pan out, especially when they’re made by institutions with a vested interest in the outcome. It’s bunk by nature. Banks and credit unions are conservative, follow-the-pack institutions. They all copy each other because nobody wants to be accused of not doing what the competition’s doing.
The big issue is how these “expert” opinions keep getting published without challenge in the mainstream media. The kind of coverage we saw in March this year was absolutely brutal. Remember, this was the time when all things were pointing downward but the media weren’t prepared to report it.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
“Trying his best not to look like a complete idiot, that is.
If any of the usual suspects comes out and says there may be declines of up to 10% it means they are expecting a major bust.”
Agreed. I wonder how much of the pump in the market by the so called market experts was really based in fear of not wanting to be the outsider. You know, the guy/gal that ‘Is always negative and gloomy’?
August 20th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Hasn’t this market been going up for more like 8 years? That’s 3 years over your approximate 5 year cycle.
I’ll make a prediction: Both Helmut and Cam will continue making soft landing predictions all the way down, just like Lereah in the States.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Well said VHB!
The market has been out of touch with fundamentals for some time. We all knew this and saw this coming. This would have happened sooner if it wasn’t for some slick new products (ie. 40 year zero down mortgage).
Predicting when these things will happen is difficult. Declines in price require a change in consumer confidence and their emotions. Nowadays, we’re seeing a return to fundamentals without the emotional change, ala the saturation of units for sale, affordability is gone and the profit margins for speculators and developers are gone. Consumer’s confidence and emotions will change soon enough and that’s when the prices will see a drop. Interest rates will be the final piece of the perfect storm puzzle.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
The bulls know this is the end.
Stay tunned and see how nasty the fools will get.
August 20th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Plus+ we are running out of land. Actually we ran out of land because all the rich people from everywhere came to live here after expo86.
August 20th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
My prediction is coming true.
So by your own admission you’re 3 years late “predicting” a market that moves in ~5 year cycles. That’s not being “right”, that’s being a stuck clock.
August 20th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
this is what satv think why we are diffrent from others.
Most Dangerous “bubble”formation and avoiding tools
1. INTRESTS RATEs:people buy property by keeping in mind intrests rate,but when governments or banks hikes intrests rate to control inflation thats type of cheating with previous emotion,that scare all the buyers and investors,prices of property is not big deal because intrests rates help people to decide the size of monthly payments.
CANADA : its good for canada that we have already seen the bubble blast its easy to protect our country by monitoring our condition now and we will be able to keep strong hold.
2.HURRICANES:When people see their homes are being drowned into water,flooding or in natural disaster that spoil the intrests to keep stability in confidence,and does not make futuristic approch.
CANADA:we are not experiencing firm or predicted natural disaster as seen in USA every year or so.
3.TERRORISM:state of terrorism scare, unlikely hold people back’ from buying anything because nature of attack and place can not be predicted where,when,why,what.
CANADA:we have very less threat or not at all because of our governing attitudes and foreign policy.
4.DEMAND:that is easy to figure out from inventory if units are selling or piling up(some time inventory pile up if reward is higher to sell).
CANADA:we have firm future projection and there is no reason seen so far why not there won’t be demand in future.
5.OVER SUPPLY:when lots of projects are on tracks but none of them have a gap in completion dates,that congest the out flow,if their is gap in completion dates,unless the next project complete temp investors or flipers can bail them self out on timely manners.
CANADA:there are lots of projects and lots of them has been completed successfuly for example freesia almost resold with in 1 year after.completion dates are vary from each other and so far there is no heavy listing of assignments after sold status.
6.RATES OF UNEMPLOYMENT/RATES OF PAY:increase and decrease in both of them change the level of mental strength.
CANADA:unemployement rates are down to 33 year low and rates of pay are picking up.
7.ECONOMY:When both fedral and provincial governments have budget surplus that can convince investor from world-wide and their is always hope for future tax cut which benifit the public directly.those are a great sign of strong economy.
CANADA:our economy is hot
8.BEST LIVEABLE CITY STATUS:Crime rates,weather condition,security,safety,transportation,transit system,and street levels play vital roles in ranking city in numbers or make them best liveable city.
CANADA:we have 2 best liveable cities and other are also nice and beautiful just these 2cities are metro so they have edge over others
9.POPULATION:stable status or merging ahead stats if those are in down turn trend thats not good for the city or country.
CANADA:population is firm and increasing projection is at higher rate
10.SERVICES:thats the most important part type of services and timing to travel,dine out delivery pick up,etc,etc,help decide the future of places..
CANADA:we have 24hrs conceirges,resturants and bars till late night and home delivery services we have electrics buses and sky-trains,etc,etc.
11.LAND:structure of area where the boom,if the land structure is avialable that increase the hope for more houses can be built and lots of land is avialable in the city or the country in similar situation.
CANADA:we have boom only in 10 to 12 cities in Vancouver all projects are being built in parking lots.
12.SUBPRIME:Our governments,economists,and financial institues are aware of all this the are very confidents sp does most of people about it ,there are more than 25% subprime case in USA compare to population thats lots and lots.
CANADA:we have less then 5% and compare to population and booming cities those are very less,less,and less.
Canada is newly built country then the rest of world our street levels highways and airports have stuning future,transit system is absolutely faboulous.services are remarkable,living standard is best.Health care and whistler squamish is a plus point for Vancouver and Canada as well.
Australia also have a similar situation like canada so their pop did not hurt big time as usa or japan hit.
August 20th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
If the so called market analysts would actually know the direction the market is heading they would not yup about it to the general public, but would invest their own money accordingly. In other words they would be investors, not analysts. So expecting any kind of wisdom or accuracy from market analysts is about as pointless as expecting that bank’s financial advisor (making 40k a year) actually knows what he is doing.
August 20th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
“since he seems to be the kind of guy who actually waits for evidence of a market turn to make Grand Predictions.”
Um, Superman? Are you aware that ‘prediction’ means to foretell something **before** it happens?
I have been saying ‘fundamentals’ for 3 years. Prices have now started back on their journey to fundamentals. My prediction is coming true.
Pastrick on the other hand, ‘predicts’ that yesterday was Tuesday. Thanks for that.
August 20th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Before everyone piles on, it might be worth keeping in mind that Mr. Helmut’s timing is considerably more spot-on than that of the bears who’ve been talking “fundamentals” for 4+ years. And I’ll wager his timing on the turn to the upside will likely also be better – since he seems to be the kind of guy who actually waits for evidence of a market turn to make Grand Predictions.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Mr Pastrick’s Resume
“Prior to joining Central in 1997, He spent many years with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation in BC responsible for analyzing and forecasting the provincial housing market and economy.”
No wonder, he worked for the CMHC, and for many years he has been “analyzing and forecasting”
August 20th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
As much as I take exception to Helmut’s “forecasts” I also believe he acts/extrapolates in good faith. However, such a flip flop without an explanation of flaws in previous analysis is disingenious at best.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
I prefer to think he was trying his best and not a liar.
Fair enough, I was just curious I don’t know much about him other than his economic acuity seems to be lacking.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Trying his best not to look like a complete idiot, that is.
If any of the usual suspects comes out and says there may be declines of up to 10% it means they are expecting a major bust.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Jesse, why they soft spot for Pastrick?
Would it not be strange if Jesse had a “hard” spot for Pastrick?
August 20th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“why they soft spot for Pastrick?”
I prefer to think he was trying his best and not a liar.
Predicting the Housing Market | Investing Intelligently Says:
August 20th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
[...] Vancouver Condo Info posted two housing market forecasts from Helmut Pastrick, one from March 17th, 2008 and one from August 20th, 2008. They are remarkably different. [...]
August 20th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
i remember the first time i got sick on the
roller coaster ….. not unlike this at all
August 20th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
at least there was a few months between his changed position, not like the one week flip for muir.
Jesse, why they soft spot for Pastrick?
August 20th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
These figures are absolutely guaranteed to be perfectly accurate within a range of plus or minus 100%
August 20th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
“housing prices will continue to rise by as much as 10 per cent this year”
“housing prices … are likely to drop by 10 per cent before the market rebounds”
That’s a whopping 20% difference. I am sure reporters will ask Mr. Pastrick the tough question: why the 20% change in forecast? I’ve always had a soft spot for Pastrick. I really think he’s trying to do a good job but he is so brutally bad at it. Kind of like a fat kid trying to run at the track in gym class.